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Showing content with the highest reputation since 07/03/2021 in Blog Comments

  1. Pretty good assessment after the first paragraph. As for the first paragraph.......hmm, how to be polite. As good as Buxton is, yes, when healthy, he is not on the same planet as Rod Carew if you want to go into Twins history. Not only did Rod have the tools, he used them. He could turn a walk into a run better than anyone in the game. Buxton refuses to use his speed to the degree he not only could, but should, anywhere but in the field. He will not bunt, and steals sparingly (as in he could steal 3rd and even home far more often). In his own words, he is "looking to drive the ball", not worry about his average, even though a higher average would put him on base more, putting him in a position to do more with his speed. His athleticism may or may not be unmatched, but his production is far from unparalleled (no, production is not on a per game basis, it is season to season). You have to be on the field to produce; no one has yet to produce from the trainers room. Don't get me wrong; as I said, a good assessment from the 2nd paragraph down, but he has started more than 88 games only once in his career and until he does consistently, year in and year out, the jury will remain out. Doesn't mean I wouldn't sign him, but not for the money he thinks he is worth. Not yet, anyway.
    5 points
  2. Damn, this is some outstanding work. Well done.
    5 points
  3. I'm hearing this opinion a lot on the boards, but what we're hearing now is that it wasn't the guaranteed money that was the sticking point on the extension, it was something related to the structure of the incentives. So from a reasonableness perspective, the issue is apparently not the guaranteed money at all. but never let the truth get in the way of calling the Pohlad Family cheap...
    4 points
  4. I agree with a lot here but I'm not sure why so many people minimize Berríos' skill level right now. No, he's not an ace, at least not by my personal definition, but it's almost impossible to classify him lower than a good #2 right now. His ERA rank out of American League qualifying pitchers the past three seasons: 8, 13, 11. HIs ERA+ over the past three seasons: 119. That's pretty clearly a guy who, if he's maybe just a click below a traditional ace, is clearly in that second tier of starting pitchers.
    4 points
  5. While I'm not ready for a rebuild, these are the types of heavy returns which the Twins would need to have if they choose to start over. I'm also of the mind to push San Diego for C. J. Abrams.
    4 points
  6. I say the Twins take a chance and actually give us the ANSWER to this question. Jettison/trade Pineda and Happ and put Barnes and Winder in the rotation with Berrios, Maeda and Ober. Dobnak and Thorpe are your AAA depth when they come back from injury. Move on from Robles (trade), Colome (trade or DFA) and Theilbar or Coloumbe (trade) and call up Hamilton, Vazquez and Cano. Pitch the starters every 5th day and use the relievers like real relievers in 6th and 7th inning situations. When inevitable 10 day IL stints occur, hope that one or more of the presently injured or AA guys like Sands, Duran, Caterino or Moran can fill in. Let's be Darwinian - may be the best guys win! My guess is that Winder will show enough to be penciled into the 2022 rotation along with Ober, but Barnes will be more of a 6th starter/long man/ AAAA guy. In the bullpen, Hamilton and Cano will be middle relief arms next year and Vasquez will be another long man/AAAA guy. But what do I know? Let's settle this in the arena!
    4 points
  7. Buxton's presence will not be missed on a nightly basis because he's never played on a nightly basis. Speed first outfielders with a long history of injury issues don't suddenly become more healthy in their 30's. He's not going to be consistently on the field. Frankly I think the Twins offer to him was more than I would've offered. I'd do a shorter higher AAV deal though.
    3 points
  8. Byron Buxton is the reason to go watch a game, he is worth the price of admission. Whether it is running down a ball in the outfield or hitting a triple or stealing a base. He can change the game on both sides of the ball, we don't or probably won't ever have that type of talent again. Pay him and pray he stays healthy for 120 games. Plus I don't think we will get a great offer after this year.
    3 points
  9. The Twins have already made an overly generous offer. He is a career .247 hitter and his yearly war is just 3.0. They offered him more than the Yanks gave Hicks. Berríos apparently wants $25M per year. Was nothing learned from the Mauer contract?
    3 points
  10. I agree that Buxton is good. However he is not great. He is a career, yes did you see that, career ..247 hitter. Don't even think of putting in with Carew and Puckett. Buxton was flailing away at the plate not too unlike Sano just very recently. I like him and hope he stays but he hasn't proven much of anything yet except how to miss 63% of his teams games the past 4 years. Don't compare to Donaldson big contract. Yes he's older and has had some injuries but he has a very good and productive background. Buxton does not. Find a way to sign him but let's be reasonable and realistic.
    3 points
  11. He is surely the fastest player we have ever had and he is certainly in the top 3 of all time centerfielders along with Kirby and Hunter...BUT, it was not that long ago that Buck couldn't consistently get hits, where he struck out and popped up. While it's true he has turned a corner, we can't possibly know his true value. or any players true value, unless they can play well at this level for a full season. This is not the year for Buck to be demanding a lot of money. The reason we paid JD what we did was because we were supposed to win our division and get to the playoffs in 2021. Don't get me wrong, it killed me to see Cruz go and it would kill me to see Buck go and be Superman for the competition...but at this point, I think we have all gotten accustomed to not having him our team because he hasn't been around. I agree that the ownership should not start tearing down what they only just built, but things did not work out like they planned this season. Buck aside, I think this team was woefully mismanaged by Rocco and his gang. From poor conditioning and injuries to horrible pitching decisions...leave them in too long, taken them out too soon, bring in the wrong reliever and then keep him in until the game is lost, etc, etc. Sano? really? Zero baseball IQ. There is plenty of blame to go around, but it started at the top. There is way too much talent on this team for them to be where they are...that is a team that is mismanaged.
    3 points
  12. As a long time forum resident/owner, I've lost track of how many Joe Bensons there have been over the past 20 years (ie. players that were released to great internet outrage, only to amount to absolutely nothing in MLB, if they ever even got there).
    3 points
  13. Wow, great work. Goes to show that the vast majority of the time, waiver moves - whether pick ups or losing players - rarely matter in the grand scheme. We - myself included - sometimes get a little irritated when the Twins drop someone like a Chalmers or Blankenhorn, but this high suggests that doing so will almost never have any consequences despite their perceived upside.
    3 points
  14. Either trade would be pretty good...even though I'm not overly eager to trade Berrios/Rogers. As a Twins fan #1 and a Dodgers fan #2 I would be O.K. with the Dodgers deal. Berrios is durable and dependable. May is coming back from Tommy John surgery. And Rogers gives the Dodgers a dependable LH arm out of the bullpen who could possibly close in 2022. However, even though the trade adds up in San Diego's favor, I like Hassell and Weathers. THAT would be a trade that (I can't believe I'm saying this) would be HAPPY with. Weathers is just 21. Hassell is just 19. These are guys you can build around for years. The other two are good filler with "potential." I'd make this trade.
    3 points
  15. Rogers’ fate should be tied to the fates of Berríos and Buxton. If one goes, all three should go. Maximize your return or try to compete in 2022.
    3 points
  16. I'm hoping the plan is a re-tool, but still with some major changes. You've laid the basic premise out nicely Mike8791. I'm going to go with the easy stuff first: Cut bait on Sano. Either move him at the trade deadline for a bag of baseballs (for salary relief) or simply buy him out for $2.75 million at seasons end and be done with him. Look for takers on Max Kepler. I don't think Max will ever get back to his 2019 form. I wonder how much of a mirage that was for a LOT of our players. But he is still a very good defensive RF'er. He has value and should be moved to a team looking for OF help. I would leave our catching personnel alone. Jeffers and Rortvedt are struggling offensively but should improve. Garver can be used as a catcher/1B/DH type of bat. I'm not averse to moving Donaldson for the right package. Arraez can hold down 3B and/or Miranda. Cruz COULD be dealt for the right package but I'd be O.K. if we kept him. It depends what teams would be willing to part with. I'd be happy to keep Nellie for another year. With Donaldson, Sano and Kepler gone that would be about $40-$45 million freed up. Some of that would be used to re-sign Berrios and Buxton. The rest, to plug holes. And there are plenty of holes. I don't think Simmons is back with the Twins next year. I don't think Lewis will be a SS in the future and with him missing the entire season this year he can't be counted on for anything until late next season at the best. This means serious money needs to be allocated for a long-term SS. I see Story and Baez as targets. Polanco belongs at 2B. If this team hopes to be relevant the next 2-3 years they need a SS !! One other point: I've finally, after a lot of musing, decided that between Berrios and Buxton if I keep one and part ways with the other, would keep Berrios. PITCHING is what will make the Twins a playoff-competitive team. it ALWAYS is. Look back on Twins history. In 1962-63 they pitched and finished 2nd & 3rd to the Yankees. In 1964 they had GREAT hitting, but didn't pitch well and finished 7th ! In 1965 they pitched and won the A.L. Pennant despite missing Killebrew for half the season. In 1966 & 1967 they pitched and were runner-ups. In 1969 & 1970 their pitching was good and they won the division. Fast forward to last year. They won the division because they pitched much better than they hit. We will NOT be better next year, if, as a team that has pitching issues, we trade Berrios or Rogers. We could possibly be better without Pineda but NOT without Berrios. In the entire time Buxton has been a Twin it seems like he's played in half the games. We've learned how to play without him and still be good. Are we better WITH him ?? Clearly, we are. But if I'm going to make a blockbuster and get an insane return of value for a player, I part with Buxton (who was playing like an A.L. MVP). We do NOT trade Buxton for anything less than an insane return. Someone either blows us away, or we give him a 3-year $80 million dollar contract and see what the next 3-years turns out to be. If we DO deal Buxton, acquire someone like Kevin Kiermaier to play CF if you don't think Celestino will work out. And you still have Lewis (who I think will end up in CF). There has been more disappointment/failure with this front office than successes. I must admit, I'm not very confident they can turn things around. The White Sox are crushing the division (as was predicted) despite losing Robert and Jimenez for the entire season to date. And the White Sox has some young pitchers who are impressive. Cleveland can flat out pitch. The Tigers have some very impressive young arms. This FO has to figure this out or we're looking at another decade of mediocrity. Time will tell.
    3 points
  17. By the way, some of you may have noticed your achievements aren't appearing yet... that's because I didn't realize the system needed to rebuild ALL 1.1 MILLION POSTS AND ARTICLES before they'd appear. So yeah, gonna be a few hours before the system can process all those pieces of content. At the very latest, all of this should be wrapped up by the afternoon of July 4th.
    3 points
  18. I may be one of the few who like Simmons for a team that wants to be respectable. He will probably win a gold glove again this year. Although his batting numbers are not good he has had many timely hits. Unless we have a major league caliber defender at shortstop for next year, I would bring him back if the price is right.
    2 points
  19. Buxton is a career .247 hitter. He has only reached 50 RBI’s ONCE. He has only reached 20 stolen bases ONCE. He has only played 80 games ONCE. He is a LOT closer to Billy Hamilton than Mookie Betts. Despite this, he (and a lot of people on forums) seem to think he’s worth $30-35M per. I just can’t see a 1/4 of the payroll sitting on the bench for over half the year.
    2 points
  20. Going from a .900 OPS to a .750 OPS with one player doesn't kill the offense. Our offense is still above average and with the talent coming up I see no reason for our offense to have any issues for the foreseeable future. We could even sign a top hitting SS to make a super offense again. That would be fun. We have enough pitching to build our staff back up both in the pen and rotation. because of all the low cost players, we should have plenty of money for free agency and or prospect capital for trades. While Thor is a fun target, I don't know if he is the value a pitcher coming back from injury used to be. Other teams are bidding on those pitchers now so I don't know if we can get the same value like when we signed Pineda 4 years ago. That would be fun to resign Cruz. I don't see how we can with all of our DH bats we already have with Sano, Rooker, Arraez and every now and then Donaldson should get a day there too. but if we can make it happen that would be cool. going into next season we have a competitive lineup and bench with only minor tweaks needed. 1B Killeroff and Sano 2B Polanco and Arraez SS Austin Martin and Lewis or FA 3B Donaldson, Miranda C Garver, Jeffers, and Rortvedt OF Kepler OF Larnach OF Buxton DH Rooker, Sano, Donaldson Bench Cave, Gordon, Celestino, (players listed above not starting) Our rotation has: Maeda Pineda (likely resigning) Ober, Dobnak, Barnes, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and then you have our closest to ready prospects (Balazovich, Duran, Winder, Joe Ryan) followed by the next tier of prospects who could be ready by midseason (Strottman, Vallimont, Woods-Richardson, Sands) and we could still sign another FA starting Pitcher. Bullpen: Rogers Duffey Alcala Theilbar Farrell, Coulombe, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Burrows, Law, Stashak, Moran other starters who are not in the rotation and we can sign a reliever or 2 this offseason as well. This feels like we are only a few players away from competing again next year and some of those players could come from the minors. The big scare is the rotation. Does anyone have an update for our 2022 season budget? What are we committed to spending and what do we have available to sign players?
    2 points
  21. No question, this is a bad team now. How can it be anything else when your best hitter and pitcher are traded? But the FO had little choice but to trade both Cruz and Berrios now while their value was highest. Berrios made it pretty plain he was going to test FA. If he wanted to be paid like an ace, Twins had to trade him. Cruz at 41 is a stud, but to expect him to continue at this high level is just unrealistic. While yes, the Twins are in a rebuilding mode and as things stand now, contention in 2022 looks like a big stretch, the future does look brighter than it did several days ago, especially in the rotation. To accelerate the improvement, they need to resign Pineda and hope that one or two of their top 10 prospects can contribute positively by 2023. They have at least doubled their chances of that happening if we can believe the baseball pundits. With Jax and Ober pitching reasonably well to date, it's feasible one of them plus one of the other prospects will solidify the #4 and 5 spots by 2023. Admittedly the offense is a big unknown. So long as they can escape any major injuries, Donaldson and Buxton are middle lineup, above average hitters. Guys like Arraez, Polanco, Garver have by and large established their offense. We should expect at least one of Kirillof or Larnach to contribute to this core, and I'm not quite ready to write off Sano and Kepler yet. They still show flashes now and then, though not nearly enough to count on. With Miranda and possibly Martin showing great promise, additional reinforcement should occur by 2023. None of the above is any guarantee of a rapid return to contention. This FO must get a lot smarter in signing FAs. A FA signing of someone like Thor or Stroman is essential. This team has no ace and likely will not for the next 2-3 years. Ditto for bullpen additions. At least two closer-types needs to be added. We should also transition a guy like Duran to the pen as soon as he is off the IL and bring up guys like Cano, Hamilton and Moran to see who might stick. Signing Buxton to a LT contract is an absolute must. If the FO fails at this very achievable goal, heads should roll. And speaking of rolling heads, Rocco tops the list. He and at least a few of his coaches just don't cut it. If this year has shown nothing else, lack of leadership, lack of stressing fundamentals and poor game management have not been the sole cause of futility, but they certainly haven't helped. With some smarter FA moves, signings and player development, this team should start making noise by 2023!
    2 points
  22. …his production is unparalleled… career .298 OBP and 96 wRC+. I mean, come on. He’s a talented player that has recently shown signs IN EXTREMELY SMALL SAMPLES that he could be a very valuable player. But even then, only if he reverses a long term trend of injury and sporadic play. I want him, but I’m not breaking the bank for him.
    2 points
  23. If Buxton is sure he can make a lot more $$$ down the line, and the Twins FO can't count on him staying on the field for more than 70-80 games a year, why not shorten the # of years being offered? Instead of $80 mil for 7 years, how about $80 mil (with incentives for games played) for 5 years? If he's constantly injured, the Twins don't have him on the books after 2026. If he's health, he more than earns his money and is still young enough to go get another big contract elsewhere at age 32.
    2 points
  24. Agreed, on all counts. I think these guys - Falvey, Levine, and Baldelli - are all smart, knowledgeable baseball minds. Yet they make an offer to Buxton that is, even with a "don't take it personally" attitude, close to, if not over the line, insulting. Of course we don't know the incentives, but still, $80 million (11 mil/year) guaranteed is insufficient. Make a reasonable offer and then let the chips fall where they may, but don't lose Buxton without even entering the sweepstakes.
    2 points
  25. "In April, this club seemed to be dealt a good amount of bad luck" That is a very generous way to assess the 1st 24 games of the season. For whatever reason Rocco/FO was obsessed with deeming Colome as our closer. This didn't have to be the decision. It should have been Rogers job to lose. For whatever reason, it was Colome's job to lose, and he should have lost it at least 2 weeks before he did. Our best starter in March wasn't given a starting job (the Dobber) - but they gave the 5th spot to Shoemaker. The rest is history, Shoemaker stunk, and Dobs never helped us and is now wrecked. For whatever reason we decided that our best leadoff hitter, and our best contact guy (Arraez) would NOT be given a starting position on the field. This led to spending 10M on a shortstop - so, instead of signing a 12M starting pitcher, we signed a 2M starting pitcher. This also led to the ever changing by the day line up, and led to a very decent 2b man having to be a very average to poor LF'er. And of course going back to the prior year, we tried to land a stud pitcher, we could not, so we jumped at adding Donaldson, which moved Sano to 1st - now blocking both Kirilloff (not anymore), and now blocking Miranda - and putting a 24M hole in our pitching budget. The proof of these personnel mistakes is here. We'd love to trade both Simmons and Donaldson. Proof we blew the roster construction game. Would we have been much better off this year with Arraez at leadoff every game and playing 2b - former all-star ss Polanco at short - Sano was a 3b until a couple weeks ago, now Miranda is playing there - Kirilloff now manning 1b daily. Just a shame really - not to mention the LF difficulty's we wouldn't have if Lamont Wade and/or Eddie Rosario were still here. Personnel roster blunders, and managerial mistakes are everywhere. We made our own bad luck Ted.
    2 points
  26. Fun and interesting read! Thanks!
    2 points
  27. I live in LA and I do think the Dodgers are in an interesting position with Baauer‘s future completely up in the air. I could see them trading for Berrios but I think they would have a hard time giving up Dustin May. What do you think about taking that same deal, have the Twins give up Berrios but not Rogers, and getting back Tony Gonsolin, Pepiot and Gavin Lux? Two pitchers and a SS?
    2 points
  28. I would say no to either deal. I'm not in the total rebuild camp and thats what these trades are. Another 2-3 years of bad teams waiting for young pitchers to advance with no experienced #1 to show them the way sounds like long losing summers.
    2 points
  29. Jovani Moran and Josh Winder are definitely the closest to MLB ready, in my estimation, and also are pretty much the only two who are healthy at this point (sounds like Winder is going to be ok after taking a ball off the neck in his last start). I'm pretty high on both, but we probably won't see extended looks at either until next summer.
    2 points
  30. h2oface

    Falvine's Waiver Claim Game

    Thanks for this. Awesome stuff.
    2 points
  31. I'm all for it. We’re going nowhere with Happ and possibly Pineda. I think you’re right in that we can’t know who the pitching equivalents of Larnach and Kirilloff are unless we give them a chance. Some really intriguing relievers too!
    2 points
  32. This very thorough look at the retool scenario certainly dampens my enthusiasm for it.
    2 points
  33. You consider trading them because you don’t believe the Twins can compete in 2022 and both players are free agents after that season. If you can’t compete in 2022, it’d be downright foolish *not* to trade them, frankly.
    2 points
  34. Sorry I wasn't suggesting the offense couldn't compete next year, I was saying the Team as a whole, when you roster including pitching and non-pitching is over half rookies or partial second year players, plus some of the one that aren't are off of injury. Plus the team that was mentioned had zero depth except for more rookies, I guess I could have assumed that triple A would have filled with older vets ready to step in when somebody gets hurt or when one of the rookies needs to be sent down. For example it listed Lewis and Martin and possibly a FA for SS. Doesn't it have to be the opposite way? sign a FA with Lewis (I can't imagine him in MN before next Sept) and Martin as possible backups? and if one of them absolutely force their way on the team, that is awesome. I guess my real point is the FO has to be prepared for injuries and prospects just not being good (Rooker for example at the start of the year), isn't that way they signed Garlick, Refsnyder, and kept Cave or Wade?
    1 point
  35. The Twins are currently tied for 11th in MLB in runs scored. So suggesting the offense can't compete next year seems a little more pessimistic than necessary. Pitching is a whole different mess, but the offense has been good enough to compete for the division this year. Losing Cruz obviously hurts (I don't think they resign him), but that's the only bat that won't be back next year (I don't think Simmons is back either, but losing him isn't hurting the offense). If Buxton returns and can play 100 games (not holding my breath, but there's a chance) the offense is more than good enough. That's what I read "going into next season we have a competitive lineup and bench" to mean. Think that's a more than reasonable stance. The pitching is the question. Harder to see them turning that around by next year, but with 50m(ish) to spend and a prospect or 2 contributing there's a path to contention for the division. Even if they don't get someone as good or better than Berrios, there's more than ample opportunity to raise the performance of the staff as a whole. Not to WS good, but it wouldn't take much to improve them to a league average pitching staff. I'm not predicting they catch Chicago next year, but I think there's a very decent chance next year is drastically better than this one with an outside chance of a SF style surprise contention year. Big offseason for the FO, though. Have to hit on a number of arms.
    1 point
  36. I get where you're coming from, but as Forrest Gump would say, fragile is as fragile does......in a nutshell, he appears to be fragile. Twice in recent seasons he has gotten hurt simply running (Forrest never did ); not by crashing into walls, diving for balls, or sliding into bases, just by running. And I have to admit, I am one of the folks who wonder how many other players would have broken a bone getting hit by that pitch, or is he just fragile? There are only so many flukish injuries the same athlete can get before a pattern sets in. And, yes, JD injures himself just running as well, but he isn't in his mid 20's anymore. I guess my point is I don't know if folks are criticizing so much, as they are lamenting his history and wondering, because of said history, if he is worth anywhere near as much as he thinks he is.
    1 point
  37. Top Gun: Yes, I purposely left return for Berrios out, as now it's just pure speculation what that might be. At first glance, yes, the Dodgers seem to be in great need for a starter and late inning reliever. May would be great as a return. I'd add Lux in the package, along with another top prospect like Pepiot or Gonsolin. Problem is Friedman hates giving up top prospects and I think May would be untouchable. The Pods also look like a good trade prospect with guys like Weathers and Paddack intriguing. No telling what Preller will do, but SD would be my second favorite trade target. Bottom line: Twins FO needs to be blown away to trade Berrios/Rogers and while I think they should, given Berrios' seeming demand for ace $ and Rogers still uneven, as indicated by his %Inherited Runners Scored, I doubt Falvey will pull the trigger. I agree that offense will take a step back next year, but chalk it up to growing pains. With our needs in the pen and rotation, just not much left over to add bats. I pushed for Twins this past offseason to trade Polanco for package of Castellanos and Gray or Castillo, but that was not to happen. And while I am as unhappy with Sano as everyone else, his trade value is so low we're better off holding on to him for DH duties. Rooker will never be better than a AAAA player and there is no one else on the farm that looks like an upgrade. Strum: Have to disagree here. Both Arraez and Polanco are too valuable to slot into a utility role. This lineup needs consistency and these two have been providing it. A guy like Gordon could fill the bill until Lewis is ready, at which time, trading Polanco or Arraez might be feasible. In the meantime, each of these guys should focus in their offensive contributions instead of manning several positions. Bad idea, especially for a young guy like Arraez.
    1 point
  38. Here are my preferences, if possible, keeping in mind it takes 2 to tango and the Twins have no control over whether or not any of the impending FAs will actually be FAs since their current teams are all just as likely to extend. Trade: Polanco, Sano (eat $11MM), Buxton Acquire: Syndergaard Extend: Berrios, Rogers ($10MM 2022), Syndergaard (20 MM 1 year), Refsnyder (750k) Sign: Verlander (20MM 1-2yr AAV), Baez (20MM AAV), Cruz (12MM AAV) Release/Nontender: Cave, Garlick C = Garver, Jeffers 1B = Kirilloff 2B = Arraez SS = Baez 3B = Donaldson UI = Gordon LF = Larnach CF = Celestino RF = Kepler UO = Refsnyder DH = Cruz SR = Verlander, Berrios, Syndergaard, Balazovic, Winder, Maeda RP = Rogers, Duffey, maybe a couple other FA relievers. The rest of the bullpen from our system. This probably puts the Twins at $140MM (assuming they eat Sano's contract). If it's too much $$, might have to trade Donaldson and go with Miranda. Edited this because I forgot to put Maeda into the rotation (assuming 1 pitcher is down all the time)
    1 point
  39. Interesting take Mike. One small change: I would include Garver as someone I wouldn't trade, but if we have Steve Garvey to play 1B I'd hang on to that guy ! I actually like the look of the pitching staff you've laid out for next year, but there's something missing: If we trade Berrios we need to include some kind of guess as to who replaces him in the deal coming back. Thor would be a FA acquisition, not somebody we would get back in a deal for Jose. I believe that for the Twins to be "competitive" next year their pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Both SP's and RP's. Let's assume we sign Thor to a FA contract. He's coming back from TJ so this next season is quite a gamble to see how he does. Still, it's worth the gamble. We retain Maeda and possibly Pineda (it remains to be seen WHAT we could get in a Pineda deal) and MLB Trade Values puts him at -.70 for a value. We're better off keeping him. Balazovic will certainly be a strong possibility and Ryan REALLY intrigues me. But what could we get for Berrios ? If we traded him to the pitching desperate Padres we could see a return of LHP Ryan Weathers, who at 21 years old has impressed me in two separate games I watched him pitch (he's been on the IL lately but appears to be ready to start on 7/30 for the Padres vs. the Rockies) and once top pitching prospect LHP Mackenzie Gore. Berrios has a value of 40.8. Weathers is 19.4 and Gore 17.5 (36.9 total). So you can see that the Padres might even need to include something else to even things out. Personally, I'd take this deal as is. The Twins save not having to pay Berrios next season and in the future. And they have Weathers on MLB minimums for several season as well as Gore. THAT frees up money to be spent on a true closer like Rosenthal or Yates for next season as well as looking at possibly bringing Cruz back. In my GM world there is no way I'm continuing with Sano. I trade him now before the deadline or more likely this winter. I'm done with him. I look to add a 4th outfielder who can play all three positions and hit a little. He's my insurance for Buxton going down. I realize you just simply can't replace Buck when he's hurt, but you can't just fall off a cliff without him either. So now here's what I have to choose from for starting pitching: Thor, Weathers, Gore, Maeda, Ryan, Balazovic, maybe Pineda and Dobnak. That's tremendous depth. I should also include Strotman who we just acquired in the Cruz trade with Tampa Bay. He's at AAA and is very close to MLB ready. If I add a real closer (Rosenthal, Yates, ??) and retain Rogers and Duffey with Alcala and possibly someone like Edwar Colina next season I have a pen that could work. The Twins lineup needs to be done with rally killers like Sano and needs a consistent bat like Cruz. If we can't get Nellie to come back, then I would look to add a good bat. Someone like Nick Castellanos. He could play some OF, DH and maybe he or Garver could play some 1B. But the Twins would need to do SOMETHING to replace the excellence and consistency of Cruz, and with Castellanos a FA I think his bat would do quite well batting 3rd or cleanup. I could see going one more year with Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B so I can gauge what we have with Lewis. It's not the best up the middle "D" but if both Polanco and Arraez HIT like their capable we could get by. If we don't trade Berrios to the Padres for that package, the pitching hurting Dodgers are interesting. LA just won their first World Series since 1988 in a 60-game season. The pressure is on to repeat. They have Bauer in trouble, Kershaw on the IL and are stumbling and bumbling. No one does LESS with more than Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts. The Dodgers are loaded with prospects. You could trade them Berrios for Dustin May (a great young pitcher out for the season with TJ) and have your choice of several other intriguing Dodgers prospects. The Dodgers need pitching NOW. Maybe despite the fact they are always madly in love with their prospects they will feel the pressure to move some of those prospects because their rotation is in tatters and their BP has blown 3 games in row. Berrios and Taylor Rogers could bring back a TON. We have about a week for all this delicious trade speculation before the deadline and then all winter as well. Can the Twins FO navigate this to their advantage or do they crash the good ship Twins on the rocks, sending everyone into a raging sea of despair?? We'll just have to wait to find out.
    1 point
  40. This 2021 team struggles in high-leverage situations, and that was certainly true in Rocco's playoff appearances as well. And that's troubling, because it signals something that, to me, seems to be the primary value of a big league coach: getting players mentally and physically ready to excel in tense game situations. I don't quite know what the best managers do, though. I don't know if they run drills that the Twins don't. I don't know if they take a more active role in interpersonal dynamics in the clubhouse. I don't know if they create an environment where every player is clear on his role and expectations for his play. Whatever it is, Rocco doesn't have it, He comes across as a nice guy, but also very weak and indecisive. And he's been given a good chance here, but his teams have fallen short of expectations. I know it's an unpopular opinion, but with a youth movement on the way, in 2022 I'd bring in a manager with more seasoning and more experience with playoff success (either as a player or a coach). In fact, I'd fire Rocco this August, just to send a message that the team's play this season is unacceptable.
    1 point
  41. I do think that "wait and see" is the right approach with Rocco. I do think that he sometimes gets a little to lost in the analytics and loses the human side of performance. Even if a particular pitching matchup is the right thing statistically, it may not be the right thing on that day for that player, and a manager needs to see and understand that before making a decision, I do think he needs a strong, experienced bench coach to help him. The biggest problem with this team is that the players who were supposed to be the core group at this point have mostly failed except for Polanco and Berrios and even they aren't leading lights. The middle of the batting order by this point was supposed to include Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Garver and Polanco. Sano is almost unplayable, Kepler can't hit and looks like he will never be more than a good fielding OF who should hit no higher than 7th (and maybe be the 4th OF), Garver is injured and inconsistent, and Buxton can't stay healthy. Polanco looks like a leadoff or #6 hitter. On the pitching side, Berrios hasn't taken that step to be a #1 ( I would argue that he's a solid #2/strong #3), Maeda is a mystery, and the bullpen never really developed past Rogers. It's hard to blame the manager for these failings.
    1 point
  42. This makes the most sense to me. 1 Above avg. starter added to Berrios and hopefully a healthy Maeda and a couple rookies stepping up could make a rotation. Then its the pen the needs a rebuild around Rogers.
    1 point
  43. Of all the buying teams out there, these are the 2 teams with perhaps the best combination of win-all mentality and top level pitching prospects, in fact, almost an embarrassment of riches. Both teams would certainly improve their chances in the playoffs by adding these two proven players. Looking at the Dodgers first, I think a combination of May, Lux and some AA type prospect like Jackson would be a solid yield. With Seager returning, Lux will be relegated to the bench, making him more available now than before. The question is: defensively, how good is he at SS? As May is highly prized by LA, perhaps a package like LA Fan proposes(Lux, Gonsolin and Pepiot) would also work well. Big problem here is Friedman hates to give up top prospects. So this is a low probability trade scenario. The Pods also could greatly benefit by the Twins duo. A trade package around Weathers and Paddack, plus a lower level guy Tim mentioned, like Medina, would greatly boost the Twins rotation as soon as next year. While Paddack and Weathers have been highly rated by the Pods, Weather's injuries and Paddack's ineffectiveness, along with Preller's innate desire to think big, could get this done. The big downside here: would Falvine be up for this high risk trade? In any case, I feel that Berrios and Rogers might be more available in the right deal than many of us believed. The fact that the FO made an offer to Buxton now, and not Berrios or Rogers, indicates these latter two are looked at as more immediate trade chips now. Just speculation of course, but if Falvine could get either of these type of packages, he should go for it.
    1 point
  44. I remember being torn up by Josmil Pinto . Sometimes the only hope to cling on to is a player's 99th percentile outcome, especially in the rebuilding years. But if a player is exposed to waivers, the front office is usually confident that even their 80th percentile won't come back to bite them too hard.
    1 point
  45. Whitey333

    The Grand "Re-Tool" Experiment

    Wow. Excellent article and great comments by all. The biggest take away I get from this is the next couple of years for the Twins seems very bleak no matter which way they go. They dug themselves a deep hole by signing bargain basement pitchers that are washed up. That's the Twins way. Until that philosophy changed I don't see us being contenders but pretenders.
    1 point
  46. GNess

    The Grand "Re-Tool" Experiment

    Wow - well done with this comprehensive breakdown of a re-tool scenario. I may be seeing things in a cloudy, subjective manner, but the Twins have just enough good players to think in terms of a re-tool and be competitive in 2022. If the Twins can: 1. Hold on to the following core guys: Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Arraez, Polanco, Jeffers/Garver, Maeda, Berrios and Alcala. 2. Get some help internally from the system and leftover (non-core) current players. 3. Trade some of the assets from this year's squad for a few meaningful players. 4. Sign some decent, proven ML starters / relievers like many teams do. They can be a .500+ team in 2022... Yes, Buxton and Berrios may well walk, but the Twins can make a run at them. Plus, that's an issue for 2023...
    1 point
  47. Mike8971 wrote: “… At that point it is incumbent upon ownership to step up and declare money is available for signing current stars and adding the necessary high end talent rather than nibbling around for bargains - a strategy that has obviously contributed to our record-setting playoff losing streak, as well as this year's collapse.” Couldn’t agree with this more. Losing Berrios would be disastrous for the near future, the mid 2020s, on this team. We can speculate forever about Sano, Pineda, Polanco, Kepler, etc., but we simply don’t have enough quality pitching—especially guys who can give us close to 200 good innings a season—to believe we measure up with the elite teams come October. If they want to see these players contend, the bottom line is that the Pohlads and the FO have to decide to spend what it takes to get the pitching we need to leverage our depth of hitting—a huge plus on this team—to bring this roster to the level of the elite teams.
    1 point
  48. I understand where you're coming from, but disagree on the premise. Often times the highest leverage isn't in the 9th inning. That's why saves are a dumb statistic. You could be "closing" the game at any point from the 6th on. Colome has gone belly up on his career norms, and Robles has been about as expected. Duffey taking a step back has really hurt. More to the point, I don't care if Rogers pitches the 9th, but if you're moving him it better be for a haul because fixing the bullpen is much more difficult when also now needing to replace one of the best arms in baseball.
    1 point
  49. Pro tip: never listen to Chief.
    1 point
  50. It would be great to trade for his Twin brother.
    1 point
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