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    bean5302

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  3. Seth Stohs

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Showing content with the highest reputation since 08/25/2021 in Blog Comments

  1. Sorry, but even if Ryan turns out to be at least a serviceable starter (or better) AND if the Rays win the championship, no, the Twins didn't "fleece" the Rays. Not only is it too early to tell if Ryan will be good, it is also to early to determine if the price TB paid for Cruz was worth it, as they are going for it all this year. And I ask the same question here that I ask with every trade - why does every trade have to end with a "loser" and a "winner" like the games? What's wrong if both teams get what they wanted from a trade?
    8 points
  2. Seth Stohs

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Just a few thoughts from the analysis (great work and thought put into it)... 1.) They have been Sean Johnson's drafts. He is the scouting director and responsible for drafting. Falvey provides a framework and some of the thought process. He has encouraged the scouting department to work with the player development and communicate between the departments. 2.) The Twins don't and shouldn't care what any other rating system puts for their rankings. They should trust their scouts and evaluators (dozens) over 2-4 people at sites like MLB.com, Baseball America or any other site think. 3.) The two "Huge Reach" guys with some playing time (Jeffers and Steer) sure look like good picks ot this point. 4.) Injuries are always a factor, unfortunately. It will be good to look at this analysis in 3-4 more years when we'll know a lot more about all of these players.
    7 points
  3. We all need to click Like on this blog post of Brock's so that he can keep the prize he so clearly esteems.
    7 points
  4. You make a great point. The Twins have always spent for "QUANTITY" not "QUALITY." It's like Slick Rick of the Vikings always trading back to accumulate more and more 6th and 7th rounders instead of just drafting Tyler Johnson (#3 WR spot SOLVED) when he was sitting there. I GUARANTEE the Twins, if they spend the money on bringing Max Scherzer here, he will be worth every penny !! Now I get that Max would be crazy not to just stick with the Dodgers who will pay him more and give him a better chance for a World Series ring, but that's not my point. The point is, when you spend on QUALITY you lessen the risk. The wins and innings that kind of SP/RP give you add up to tremendous value for what you spent. Honestly, I don't know why this FO doesn't understand that. I thought they were brought here to replace the antiquated thinking of the Terry Ryan regime. Maybe this is a Pohlad "thing." It's hard to understand how the Twins have never figured this out.
    7 points
  5. It's an absolutely ridiculous tweet. Makes no sense. Viola has no idea. He's had nothing to do wit with the organization for like 30 years. He's been whining about the Twins since they hired someone else to be their pitching coach (clearly a good decision). So what he says doesn't confirm anything. What's his purpose in the tweet? Who is he upset at? Falvey because he didn't hire him? Not baseball people? Falvey has been around the game for a long time. Played in college, scouted, worked in a variety of front office roles. Levine was the assistant GM of a couple of World Series teams in Texas. He's also been in a variety of roles. Rocco Baldelli has done pretty much everything in the game over the past 20+ years. The team has won. This year, the pitching and the injuries just became too much. The previous front office hadn't won for a long time either. The player development at that time was a big question mark. And, frankly, Viola was part of the 1987 and 1988 teams that won, but he was also part of the 1982-1986 teams that lost a lot of games with 'baseball people."
    7 points
  6. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Do 2/3, 1/2, 1/3 make it within 3 years of being drafted and with a missed year of minor league baseball? Because that's what you're judging Larnach by right now. My guess would be those numbers refer to their entire careers and simply making an MLB roster at some point. I mean Drew Maggi technically made it to the majors as a 15th round pick now. This just feels like you're missing a lot of context. What number of players from the 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21 drafts have made it to the majors, how many games have they played, and how are they performing? That's what you need to compare these guys to. According to a baseball america article from 2019 only about 83 guys from each draft ever accumulate even 0.1 WAR. Trevor Larnach is already at 0.5 and Jeffers is at 1.1. So with a completely lost season of development and within 3 years of being drafted those 2 are already within the top 83 players of what that entire draft class will produce on average and have basically filled the Twins quota for the 2018 draft. According to fangraphs the chances of a top 5 pick never accumulating 1.5 WAR in their career is 60%. 6-10 is 65%, 11-15 71%, 16-20 85%, 21-25 76%, and 26-30 84%. It's more likely than not that anyone drafted, even at the top of the draft will never get even 1.5 WAR. Odds of finding someone who produces over 2.5 WAR for picks 1-5 is 11%, 6-10 is 15%, 11-15 11%, 16-20 5%, 21-25 11%, 26-30 5%. Anyone picked after pick 15 has about a 5% chance of accumulating even 2.5 WAR for their entire career. I think we need to lower the expectations for what Falvey draftees should have produced by now. I mean Jeffers has already out performed his draft position within 3 years and in the middle of a pandemic, and as stated above they've already met their quota for players who reach 0.1 WAR for the 2018 draft. What more do you want?
    6 points
  7. jmlease1

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    You're a tough grader. I don't think most fans are going to consider a C to be acceptable? I also think you're skipping an analytical component in this: signing status on the pick. We got Enlow because we were able to go above slot on him. Why did we have the resources available? Lewis was a guy we didn't have to go high on to get him to sign, and Rooker was signed below slot. but the bigger issue is you explicitly say player development is separate from drafting...but your grades seem very much tied to the player development side of things, as you evaluate these players today on their progress in the system and projection in the future. For example: Landon Leach got crushed in this analysis, but he did fine in his initial exposure to rookie ball and then got hurt/lost a season to the pandemic. (btw, he was a HS selection not a collegiate one)
    6 points
  8. I appreciate the ability to be awarded an F- in this grading. ”You were so bad, we created a new bottom rung for you to occupy.”
    6 points
  9. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    I guess for me it comes down to what your expectations are. You say you're almost ready to label Cavaco and Sabato busts despite them having 1 year of professional ball under their belt. That seems incredibly aggressive to me. Cavaco has 332 total minor league ABs in 88 total games (according to MLB.com). Sabato has 361 in 107. That's less than 1 season of play and you're saying they're already likely busts? That's some tough grading right there. I haven't been overly impressed with their drafts (I did like the Lewis, Larnach, and Petty picks), but I don't think they've been awful (Cavaco has the athleticism that creates the type of ceiling you want with a 1st round pick and Sabato absolutely crushed some of the best college baseball talent during his 2 years in NC). If Lewis had reached the majors last year or this year as was predicted before a pandemic and freak knee injury ruined both those plans I think things look a lot different. In a season ticket holder Q and A Levine spoke a little to their draft strategy. They feel the data shows that getting high end, elite bats later in the draft is much harder than finding impact pitching. They feel that your best chance to get game changing hitters is to get them early and that's what they were attempting to do with the bats they took. Their approach is to go after guys with elite tools (Lewis and Cavaco) or guys who dominated college baseball (Larnach, Sabato, Rooker, Wallner, Soularie) and look like they could have game changing bats. They believe they can turn pitchers with an already elite pitch into more complete pitchers and can get those guys later. That's their approach to pitching in general, actually. Find a guy with a pitch they can already put in their back pocket (Ryan fb, Petty fb, Wisler slider, Maeda split, Pineda slider, Duran fb, etc) and then use their technology based coaching to develop more pitches (Balazovic, really good article on the athletic today about his new splitter), add velo (Ober), or improve control (hopefully improve everyone's). Now you can certainly debate if that's the correct strategy (I know it's pretty universally accepted that you take a bat over an arm if they're closely ranked as bats are more likely to turn out) or if they've executed their vision well. But I think it's important to at least take their strategy and goals into consideration. I also think expectations on baseball draft prospects need to be tempered to a great degree. As Dman pointed out, the success rate is miniscule. To truly evaluate any FO and their ability to draft and develop you need to compare them to every other drafted and developed player. Like is Larnach really that far behind his 2018 draft class peers? I'd argue no. There aren't a bunch of them taking the league by storm already. He's among the handful that have made it to the bigs, and none of them are world beaters yet. I wouldn't say he's the best of the bunch by any means, but he's not getting drastically outdone by the players taken after him or anything. To me it's too early to judge these drafts, or their draft and development ability at all. It's a total incomplete grade to me.
    5 points
  10. This is the single most BS, yet extremely popular, Twins fan defeatest and apologist excuse in existence. There isn't any evidence to support the argument. The Twins just do not make competitive offers. That's a fact. They make lowball offers and the citations of agents telling the Twins to essentially stick it, are after the Twins make essentially the same lowball offer over and over again when there are already higher bids. It's exactly what they were doing with Yu Darvish and Josh Wheeler. The Twins had already been outbid, yet kept making offers which were lower than what was on the table or essentially the same as their previous offer. Kinda like Rick Spielman trying to trade up with lowball offer after lowball offer in the 2021 draft. The Carolina Panthers owner told them to stop calling "with negative value" offers. The Panthers didn't say "stop calling" period. Why did Josh Donaldson land with the Twins? Why did Kirk Cousins come to the Vikings? Why did Zach Parise and Ryan Suter come to the Wild? Don't they hate Minnesota? Oh... they came here because they were paid the most to come here. If you pay them... they will come. Yes, Ray, players will most definitely come.
    5 points
  11. I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing. The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
    5 points
  12. Appreciate the analysis. Only problem: it's built on an assumption which "might not be so," namely, the "top level" free agent starters would sign with the Twins if actively pursued, offered competitive money, etc. Based on the last few free agent cycles, I believe the Twins are at a massive disadvantage in pursuing the "top level" FA Starter compared to the largest market teams (like the Yankees & Dodgers), that the Twins won't even be considered by the "top level' FA Starters unless the Twins offer significantly better contract terms compared to those teams. Further, there's a good chance the Twins wouldn't be considered even if they did so. For whatever reason - beyond pure contract dollars - those guys appear to want to be in the "big markets": whether it's "better chance of winning there" (the top-level guys are typically at a stage in their career where winning a World Series is higher on their list of priorities), or "More off-field earning potential," or what, I think those guys generally aren't interested in coming to Minnesota & the Twins would have to offer significantly better contract terms to "get them interested." Which is a hard thing for a smaller market team to do.
    5 points
  13. Bean, thanks for the data that supports those of us who feel FA is only a fool's game for teams like the Twins emphasizing bargains rather than quality. The big question is whether this losing operating philosophy stems from Pohlad's tight-fistedness or incompetence of the FO. My guess is this past futility reflects more on ownership. Pohlad's banking background seems to inhibit him from foregoing short term profits instead of investing in long term success. Of course, I cannot possibly know what JP is thinking, but the results speak for themselves. He hires guys like Ryan and Falvey who share his bargain basement outlook on spending. Ryan(at least in his first go-round) proved adept at some shrewd trades and had some drafting success. Likewise, Falvey has acquired some good pitching vis the trade route(drafting success TBD). Basically, the problem is Pohlad's leadership in not enunciating an operating philosophy that would allow for the team to be legitimate contenders for a World Championship. No, Ryan and Falvey don't get free passes here, either. Their unwillingness to make some significant mid-season trades that might have elevated an already competitive club into a legitimate WS contender has been a glaring weakness for 20 years. Me thinks we have a two-headed monster : a passive owner who looks at the P&L statement as the end-all to his stewardship and risk-averse GM's who are selected because of basic agreement with this "don't-rock-the-boat" approach. The results speak for themselves, not just this year, but for the last 18 years of zero playoff success.
    5 points
  14. Knowing the kind of free agents that the Twins will actually sign (not pipe dreams), my best guess at the 2022 opening rotation would look something like this: Johnny Cueto Eduardo Rodriguez Jose Quintana Bailey Ober Randy Dobnak World Series experience, cherry-picked stat windows and the super-magical abilities of Wes Johnson will be used as selling tools to the fans. By mid-May comments like "DFA Quintana now!" and "Why is Rodriguez still in the rotation? Call up [insert prospect with hot start]!" will litter TD. I'll probably be one of the ones making the comments. Rinse/Repeat.
    5 points
  15. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    So here's my concern. You mention it isn't uncommon for college players to reach MLB in 3-4 years, and I agree. You've used stats in the comments to show the percent of players who make it to MLB at all based on round drafted (and I'll add that it's 17.6% of all drafted players ever make the bigs). I provided data that only 83 out of the usual 1200ish players drafted in any single year (7%) ever reach at least 0.1 WAR. In their entire career, not within 3-4 years. You seem to be mixing "making it to MLB" with "establishing/doing well in MLB." If the mark is simply making it that's one thing, if it's doing well that's another. And I get that it plays into your grade of "C," but the tone of the original post and your comments following is more that the Twins are failing or that "C" isn't actually good enough. The FO has 2 draft classes that are 3-4 years removed from their draft year. Here are the results of their classes as far as who's reached MLB already and their bWAR: 2017: Lewis, Enlow Rooker (-0.2) Barnes (-0.4) Ober (0.9) 2018: Sands, WInder Larnach (0.9) Jeffers (1.1) So they've had 5 college guys reach MLB within 3-4 years (Jeffers 2, Rooker and Larnach 3, Barnes and Ober 4) with a pandemic year sandwiched in the middle of their development. They've had 3 guys already reach more than 0.1 WAR. 2 of those did it within 2 or 3 years of being drafted. Arguments could be made that Lewis, Enlow, Sands, Winder, and Canterino would've debuted this year were it not for injuries which would give them 10 guys to have debuted in MLB between 2 and 4 years (including 2 HS picks) of being drafted with a pandemic ruined season mixed in. I just think it's far too early to judge their drafting, or drafting and developing, beyond comparisons to things like MLB.com, etc. rankings that teams couldn't care less about as they're based on far less data than their internal rankings. I appreciate the the dialogue, though. Fun to have some back and forth about this stuff. I just disagree with labeling any 20 year old with less than a season's worth of ABs a near bust already, or even a college kid just wrapping up his first season. Bust is too strong of a word for me. Appreciate the effort that went into doing all this, though!
    4 points
  16. bean5302

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    This is about the results from the front office based on what has been seen up until now, including how well our prospects have performed in the minors. There are exceptions to the rule, but most eventual MLB players do not struggle or even fail to impress in the low minors multiple years after they were drafted. Still, getting to MLB is absolutely worth something and that's reflected in the front office's grade for Larnach. The front office got a C grade for Larnach because he made it to MLB in the first place. C grade is acceptable. It's average. It's good enough. It's nothing special. Even if Larnach never makes anything out of himself, and I projected him not to, it still gave Falvey a C grade. This isn't an Uber ride where somebody gets fired if you don't give them 5 stars. Larnach was drafted as a bat only player which means he absolutely has to rake to be of significant value. The front office was behind the 8-ball from day 1 on the Larnach, Sabato, Wallner and Rooker picks because there was nothing to fall back on. The front office made that call and they need to live with it. Side note, it is not uncommon to see college players in MLB at 3-4 years, and the best college players get to MLB in 1-2 years. 2020 did throw some wrenches into the mix, but Larnach is not particularly young and he participated in the alternate site in 2020. He'll be 25 years old at the start of next season, and that's generally about the cutoff for a "prospect" being considered a prospect. The effects of a lost season diminish over time. As far as missing context, I'm not writing a book, I'm writing a blog. To deep dive into every conceivable aspect of the draft would take hundreds of hours of work. You're more than welcome to do the digging yourself. :)
    4 points
  17. jmlease1

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    I don't think your expectation is borne out by baseball draft history. Sure, for a top 5 pick like Royce Lewis the expectation is that he's going to be a major league player, and have a good chance at being more than that. And those top five picks almost always get to the majors and with at least some success. But first round picks still bust all the time, and expecting that the twins picks are going to be immune to that doesn't make sense to me. Falvey has had 1 top 5 pick (#1 overall), 1 pick in the top 15, and everything else 20 or lower. If all these guys make the majors it'd be amazing
    4 points
  18. Squirrel

    Saddest sports city

    The Lynx won the championship in 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017 ... so, no, it hasn't been since 1991.
    4 points
  19. Given that I control the god account on the site, I’m considering logging in under 100 different accounts just to like your post, ash.
    4 points
  20. The problem I have with your list list is that you're cherry picking players that are fitting your narrative. For example... 2021 FA Class of High End Starters Trevor Bauer - WAR - 1.7 @ 3 years for $34 million = $20 million/WAR Charlie Morton - WAR - 3.6 @ 1 year for $15 million = $4.15 million/WAR Kevin Gausman - WAR - 4.2 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $4.5 million/WAR Marcus Stroman - WAR - 3.1 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $6.1 million/ WAR That's it for higher end SP's for 2021 The middle guys Corey Kluber - WAR - 1 @ 1 year for $11 million = $11 million / WAR Mike Minor - WAR - 2 @ 2 years for $18 million = $2.25 million / WAR James Paxton - WAR - 0 @ 1 year for $8.5 million = INF / WAR Robbie Ray - WAR - 3.7 @ 1 year for $8 million = $2.16 million / WAR Drew Smyly - WAR - .2 @ 1 year for $11 million = $55 million / WAR The Twins Picks J.A. Happ - WAR 0 @ $8 million Matt Shoemaker - .7 WAR @ $2 million The Twins have had 15 different starting pitchers in 2021. Less than 60% of SP's in the rotation will end the year with 30 starts. This means the Twins need at least 10 - 15 starting pitcher. I don't see any logic why the Twins FO will sign a SP that will cost 15-25% of the payroll and only has a 50-60% chance to make it through the entire season. We could have signed 2 mid tier pitchers and gambled on their success, or do what the Twins did and signed 1 mid tier pitcher and 1 low end pitcher and roll the dice. Unfortunately the dice roll didn't end up. The Twins Plan That Didn't Work Sign elite defenders so mediocre pitchers have a better chance to thrive at Target Field Josh Donaldson Andrelton Simmons Buxton in CF Polonco is a + defender at 2B Keplar is a + defender in the OF Realistically the Twins made some good decisions, they just lost the dice roll. Sure beats being stuck with a lost season from; Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Luis Severino and many others.... 25% of your payroll just thrown in the trash.... that would hurt... I like the Twins strategy better.
    4 points
  21. I like the analysis and it makes sense but not every team is going to be able to sign the three to four elite pitchers that come out every year so 27 teams are going to miss out that is the math of supply and demand. If it is worth it for the Twins why wouldn't it be worth it for the Yankee's, Dodgers etc? Teams that can up the anti until they can't. Maybe it is the owner but Falvey came from Cleveland and they never bought an ace in fact they seem to get rid of their guys once they get too expensive. I think it will be the same mentality for the Twins. They are going to do it from within and hope those one year deals work out more often than not. If they get to a Cleveland like pitching pipeline then they won't spend big on pitching at all. It will all come from the farm. I'm not saying your analysis is wrong but it seems like most teams in the Twins payroll range don't buy into your premise. They seem to feel or have analysis that arms are too volatile to bank on and that on average younger arms are better than older ones. Thus the home grown and one year prove it deals for Oakland, Tampa, KC, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburg, Milwaukee etc.. None of those teams do what you are suggesting in fact they all avoid it. Most all of those teams are banking on building a staff of young arms and supplementing with a reasonably priced veteran on a shorter term deal. I like the go big or go home approach but for small market it has to hurt and mean losing other valuable players at some point. There is more to your analysis than meets the eye IMO. Else everyone would\could do it.
    4 points
  22. Tim

    No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky

    Honestly at the time, Happ was a lot safer of a signing than taking a flier on Kluber. Happ had pitched to an ERA below 4, 5/6 previous years. No one expected him to be as bad as he was. Kluber was coming off surgery and hadn't pitched professionally in 2 years. Interesting thoughts on the Walker signing .. Maybe there is a conspiracy .. This comes back to depth. The front office knew that they couldn't get by with AAA guys making spot starts so went after quantity. I believe this is the case for the previous years as well.
    4 points
  23. The Odo trade needs some context. As per usual the ever payroll conscious Rays needed to move Odo and his market wasn't good. I think we all were surprised the Twins were getting two years of Odo for a single player in A ball. Still Palacios had potential and he is showing now what the Rays thought they were getting. A player with a good eye at the plate who also is hitting for power that can play short. It didn't work out for Tampa but it had decent potential IMO. Tampa achieved what they wanted though which was getting rid of salary so in my mind they weren't really trying to "win" that trade just achieve an objective. So it depends on how you look at these deals IMO. Way too early to assess the Cruz trade and again context is needed. Tampa wasn't worried about winning the Cruz trade long term as they needed a difference maker bat for this postseason and Cruz was the best available that wouldn't hurt them salary wise long term. Strotman was a player likely not good enough to make their 40 man next year and Ryan looks good but is a one trick pony unless his secondary's improve. It is quite the haul for half a year of Cruz but again Tampa needed a short term asset to help them in the playoffs and they got the guy they wanted. If he helps them win the world series then in my mind Tampa wins this trade or you could say both teams won depending on how Ryan and Strotman work out. If Cruz fails to be the difference maker they paid for then it seems hard to see how they could "win" that trade but sometimes you have to take calculated risks and I think theirs was a good one.
    4 points
  24. Doug Mientkiewicz is available to manage.
    4 points
  25. a-wan

    Believing in Ober

    Dude, chill with the attitude. Or keep pounding your head into the wall, eventually maybe the CTE kicks in and makes you happy. If Ober can stay at the 93'ish velocity he can be a legitimate starter.
    4 points
  26. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Again, you're ignoring the timeline. Players from 2000 had 16 years(!) to make it to the majors and accumulate WAR in that study. Larnach has had 3, with one of those being a pandemic cancelled minor league season. That article isn't even bold enough to try to grade drafts 4 or fewer years removed. They waited a minimum of 6 to start looking at things. That's the point. I can appreciate you not liking the Twins draft strategy, and agree that they have boxed themselves in with guys like Sabato and Rooker who are bat only (I never liked the Rooker pick), but giving the FO F's on Cavaco and Sabato especially is outlandish to me. Sabato is putting up Sano type lines now. If he has a Sano type career that's a win for the FO. Your post was meant to grade the FO for their drafts, but you just can't do that at this point. I mean you've written Larnach off after his first taste of the bigs when he was called up before he was ready. I can't even imagine how badly you'd shred the Giants for the Joey Bart pick at #2 in 2018. Or Alec Bohm at #3. The league found a hole in Larnach's swing and beat it to death. That's the game. Now he needs to close it and come back next year having made an adjustment. His college and minor league performances suggest he'll make an adjustment and come back at some point next year and have made an adjustment. We'll see. To me, there simply isn't enough data to provide the grades you are. It's ignoring the reality of the baseball draft and prospect development. It's really just you saying you don't agree with their "get possible difference making bats early" strategy. And that's totally cool. But it's nothing more than that. And that's totally cool, too. I appreciate the work that went into pulling this all together, and the back and forth on it, but this exercise is super premature. You simply can't judge these things this quickly.
    3 points
  27. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Ok, give Larnach 0.2 WAR. He's still outdone what 93% of that entire class will do for their entire careers. How does that earn him a C? In the schools I went to being in the top 93% was an A. That's my problem. You're not using historical data and are crushing, or at least downgrading, picks that have either done better than you're giving them credit for or haven't had nearly enough time to make any kind of reasonable assessment of. Your expectations just aren't in line with MLB draft reality. Moral of this story is 4 years isn't enough time to grade a draft pick, let alone less than a season.
    3 points
  28. jmlease1

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Well, some of this context has already been done at places like Baseball America and FanGraphs; didn't take hours to track it down, more like 10 minutes. But you're putting forward the analysis of the front office's draft ability, so it's fair game if you've missed something important, and I think you have. But the biggest problem with this as a blog post for me is that the thesis feels incoherent. Almost everything you're presenting is highly critical of the front office's draft results and strategy...but then you tell us that the final grade is still ok and you're not calling for them to be fired like an Uber driver. If you believe that their strategy is wrong, that they're making a lot of mistakes, and that their drafts are not panning out and should have better results by now, then stick with it. Don't cop out and tell me a "C" grade is ok; tell me why you're right to give them what will be perceived as a pretty crummy grade.
    3 points
  29. Squirrel

    Saddest sports city

    I appreciate the acknowledgement, and I wasn't trying to throw it in anyone's face, and whether or not they are truly 'lesser', as some here have indicated, I think those were championships that excited the fanbase and the city, which is why I mentioned it. Honestly, I don't follow basketball at all, either WNBA or NBA, and I don't live in Minnesota, but I still heard and read about their successes, so, they garnered some attention, which is why I mentioned it. I don't think it's completely true that Minnesota is completely devoid of 'happiness' since '91, but I get the general gist of the 'major 4 men's sports' in Minnesota being devoid of bringing us happiness.
    3 points
  30. Vanimal46

    Saddest sports city

    I think there is a lot of pent up frustration, jealousy, and insecurity with Minnesota sports fans that may be unique to the region. I am not an exception to this, but I try my best not to act like this all the time 30 years without a championship in the men’s major 4 sports is the source of the frustration. Frankly, only the Vikings have gotten relatively close to a championship in those 30 years. The Twins can’t overcome the Yankees in the playoffs, the T-Wolves have been a laughingstock for 15 years, and the Wild haven’t been able to put it all together. I think there is a TON of jealousy from fans. You can see it on this very thread that we’re using tax dollars to support “billionaire owner overlords”. A common theme I see all the time is bitching about the highest paid player on the team, and essentially running them out of town. Joe Mauer was the local hero who could do no wrong. Then once he became the highest paid player on the team and a career altering concussion happens, the hate starts pouring in. Josh Donaldson this year has had unwarranted attacks written about him on this very site. Kirk Cousins is the most polarizing player in the state. The list goes on and on. Finally, I think there’s a ton of insecurity from fans. There’s a constant worry that player X will never sign here because of cold weather, or a myriad of other things that aren’t important as money. As soon as a current Minnesota sports player says they may be looking elsewhere after their contract is over, fans turn on them saying “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.” Jimmy Butler is a prime example. He was the only reason the T Wolves were relevant for a year. The minute he expressed his concerns about the team and maybe playing elsewhere, people wanted him gone immediately. It’s a truly wild dynamic here. I highly doubt people at Dodgers Daily bitch about paying Matt Kemp deferred money all these years later. Or if they won or lost a trade from 2 years ago. It’s only here. And I don’t know why.
    3 points
  31. theBOMisthebomb

    Saddest sports city

    That's why when I have the same rant about how awful the Minnesota championship drought is, I clarify "men's professional sports teams". Otherwise, people throw the Lynx, UMD hockey, and other titles won by teams located in this state in your face. Just for the record, I do consider the Lynx championships as equal to a Twins, Vikings, Wild, or Wolves championship just a different category.
    3 points
  32. RpR

    Saddest sports city

    That team is on the level of Minor League baseball, no matter how one wants to glorify women's sports. Women's golf is still second string and it has been around a long, long time with a Minnesotan Woman, Patty Berg who was one of the best. I nearly bought a set of her golf clubs at a large flea market at the Minn. State Fair Grounds, twenty years ago, as they were long enough for me, I am six feet tall, but while I have never broken, or bent a golf club, at that, they looked a bit fragile; I was curios what it would be like, playing with the golf club heads she had.
    3 points
  33. LastOnePicked

    Saddest sports city

    "All of that said, if there is such a thing as karma -- and I believe that there is -- the negative attitude of fans may be having some effect." Gee, way to blame the victim, buddy. Just to be clear, these "negative fans" have been shelling out tax dollars and hard-earned recreational bucks to support these teams and house them in state-of-the-art facilities. All this despite a total drought of championships. I think it's more likely exactly the opposite. Minnesota sports fans tolerate failure in ways other fanbases don't, which may mean that FOs and managers/coaches don't feel any great pressure to produce results here. Midwestern culture typically requires one to be even-keeled and humble about expectations. That could be playing a role here, too.
    3 points
  34. 2020 FA Class Stephen Strasburg - 0 WAR over the last 2 seasons and probably headed for more ($245 million) Hyun Jin Ryu - 4.3 WAR over 2 season and $40 million = $9.3 million/ WAR with 2 years remaining and a 75% chance (due to injury) that 1 of the remaining 2 years will be lost. Zack Wheeler - 8.4 WAR over the last 2 season and cost $47 million which is $5.5 million per WAR. He has 2 years left so that's still a 75% chance that he will miss significant time due to injury. All 3 guys would take up 20-30% of our payroll if we signed them to their current contract which would have been more if we a part of the bidding. Yikes that's a lot. 4 seasons to gamble on 1 player is a really tough thing to do. If it doesn't work out or Tommy John surgery knocks him out for half of his contract, Ouch. If anything, it now makes even more sense why low market teams should continue to go after mid to low salary guys and hope they pull a Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman out of their hat. Happ IMO was a good gamble since he pitched in Yankee Stadium and still had good numbers despite giving up lots of long balls. Moving to a pitcher friendly ballpark could have really been a sneaky great season for him but as we all know, it didn't work out. At least Gant is looking good! Making the playoffs is the ultimate goal according to analytics. The sample size of a 1 game Wildcard or 7 game series is small enough that a weaker opponent still has a decent chance to win. (Yes... what's happened to the Twins in playoffs is extremely unlucky). I don't understand the gap you're referring to as winning the WS every year versus not going to the WS in 30 years. It's to be expected that the Dodgers, Yankees, and other large market teams will make it. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics on what they've been able to do as far as making the playoffs versus their divisional rivals. Boston and New York should never not make the playoffs with their salary and with how much the Angels spend, they should dominate teams like the Athletics. Also, where is the ace that's on the A's or Rays? Rays don't have one! A's don't have one! I really like your post though, it's a great conversation to have with fellow Twins fans!
    3 points
  35. Owners and staff are exempt ... so I suggest that we start clicking like on all your posts for a prize you seem jealous that someone else may win
    3 points
  36. This is the greatest idea in baseball history!! Wait… breaking the race barrier in the major leagues was better. But still, GREAT IDEA!!
    3 points
  37. The FO or Rocco has apparently decided he can't play a decent SS at the ML level. FINE. They are far smarter and more plugged in than I am. But then why in hell have I watched him playing SS the past two ST? I'm NOT saying Polanco shouldn't be the #1 backup SS at the ML level, but why doesn't Gordon at least get a shot to see what he can do there? I have ZERO illusions the kid is going to go somewhere and become a high quality ML player...other than maybe at 2B for a losing team just looking for potential. But if you liked him enough to protect him, stick by him, and believe enough in his athleticism to learn CF/OF on the fly, and drop him back down to AAA with the purpose of getting AB and playing EVERYWHERE, then for goodness sake let him play at the ML level EVERYWHERE. And that includes SS. I expect no greatness but you might actually end up with an inexpensive, speedy, utility player. Far short of his original draft status and initial hope, but what's wrong with gaining some real value for him?
    3 points
  38. Desclifani is the product of Giants devil magic. He was the kind of signing we would have all been frustrated with and may not be doing what he's doing with any other team. Ray needed a pillow contract after the disaster of 2020 and he was still on the underside of 30. This is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be making on one year deals. High ceiling potential here. Rodon is an anomaly. This kind of career turnaround in one offseason is a once-a-decade event in MLB. Walker was a fawned over as a FA this past offseason by the Twins Daily faithful and was expected to easily get more than $30mil by national writers. That he was signed so late in the offseason for only $20mil was considered a steal by the Mets before the ink even dried. I remember the national podcast voices exclaiming a collective "WTF!?" over this signing. There has to be more to the story that we don't know because this signing for this amount doesn't make sense. It would be like the Twins getting Jon Gray this upcoming offseason for 2/20. You also mentioned Kluber and Paxton. Even with the injuries, either one would have been better spent money than Happ+Shoe. Signing a make-good, high injury risk pitcher with a high ceiling is exactly the kind of signing the Twins should be looking to make, especially this upcoming offseason. The problem with Happ, Shoemaker, and their ilk is the upside that can be gained from their signing. Twins need to target pitchers with high upside in FA, not their mean production. At best, the Happ signing is a 4.20 ERA pitcher. At best Kluber is a 3.10 ERA pitcher. The cost is nearly the same for either. Sure, the floor for Kluber is lower, but that just means a AAA guy ready to prove themselves takes his place. That beats 20 starts of 6.60 ERA pitching from Happ, as nearly every pitcher to pitch in Happ's spot since he was traded has performed better. This was also the beauty of the Pineda signing. His ceiling is a 3.50 ERA pitcher. Sure, he's missed a lot of time, but he's generally been outstanding when on the bump. We need more of that high risk/high reward in our FA pitching contracts.
    3 points
  39. The Twins would have to pay more than 25m/yr to lock up Darvish. He doesn't have a price tag, it's a bidding system. By default the price would have been at minimum 26 per. Then the Cubs counter. Twins have to pay more to stay in the game and a bidding war ensues. In 2018, contract offers being equal, Darvish signs with the Cubs 100% of the time. The Twins have to out-do any bidding on any pitcher right now because half the teams in the league are better poised to win in the short term than the Twins. Yet, as you point out, even paying 4, 5, or 6mil more per year still makes it worth it vs bargain bin shopping. BTW, I want to compliment you again @bean5302. This is the kind of numbers breakdown that drives me to read sites like Twins Daily. I am really looking forward to reading more of your work in the future. Hopefully I can add an email notification for just posts by you...and if not, hopefully a moderator is reading this and can work with the development team to implement a "follow of your favorite writers" notification feature.
    3 points
  40. A pitcher whose sinker and changeup breaks down makes hitters swing and miss even at slower speeds. A pitcher whose fastball rises as it comes into the zone may make a hitter miss in the same fashion, even at modest speeds for a fastball. He will, though, need another pitch or two that makes hitters nervous so they can't sit on the fastball (which would make it even sneakier fast). In my day, that is what they paid pitching coaches for. We are supposed to have a good one; time for him to earn his money.
    3 points
  41. They HAD to trade Cruz. I'm rough on this FO, but the trade seems fair and even promising. In fact, it's looking a lot better than the Berrios trade. These things will take a lot longer to evaluate fairly, though. And I really hope Cruz helps Tampa to a World Series championship. I respect they way they build a winning team year after year based on player development with limited payroll.
    3 points
  42. I love this study @bean5302. I would like to know what your qualifications are for the Top 8 Frontline starters. Was it total dollars? Dollars per year? Was this cherry picked at all? I hope you see this and can respond. There is a point where the investment does become a bad investment and the Twins, due to total financial resources actually available before taking a loss on team ownership, will always get outbid by deeper pockets. For example, every one of those SPs, sans Greinke, was signed by a team up against the soft cap. This means if the Twins need to throw an extra $4mil a year at Darvish to sign him, that becomes a bad contract, looking more like a Mike Pelfrey level signing than what the Cubs got. Can the Twins be a better team using that kind of approach? I don't think they can. Kind of depressing. I'd like to see a recreation of the same study, but with solid second tier starters. I'm thinking somewhere between $60mil and $100mil, such as a Hyun Jin Ryu signing. What is the value of those contracts and can the Twins compete there? Again, great insight and breakdown. Looking forward to more!
    3 points
  43. It's the front office's job to sell the best solution to the owner(s), even if the solution is a long term, big dollar contract. I feel like what I laid out above in a few hours of diving through the internet is exactly the kind of argument a GM could take to an owner like Jim Pohlad to justify spending bigger on top pitching, but it would take confidence because if it doesn't work, you'll probably be fired.
    3 points
  44. I can see the Twins with Ober, Ryan, and Dobnak after that they need to sign 1 top end starter and 1 mid tier starter. Then they give the kids a little more time to prove themselves in the minors. I don't have much confidence that Dobnak will perform well enough to stay in the starter role and we all know Twins pitchers can't seem to stay healthy enough for an entire season. After all that is the bullpen. What a mess!
    3 points
  45. mike8791

    Improving Pen?

    Brandon, glad you brought up this relatively unnoticed positive trend. Twins bullpen has definitely improved in August, and is probably the number one reason Twins finally had a month over .500. Looks like Thielbar, Coulombe and maybe Gant and Minaya have a good chance of making next year's bullpen. I suppose Rogers, Duffey and Alcala are locks although the latter two have to show some solid improvement over this year's performance. The bottom line is that this club has to add a genuine closer and if affordable one other late inning arm. No one in the rest of this list looks like likely candidates for clutch situations on a contending club. One more thing. My personal favorite metric for analyzing relievers is the % of inherited runners scored. That stat is a true measure of a reliever's effectiveness. I believe the Twins' 2021 pen ranked dead last in this category. Guys like Rogers and Duffey were particularly poor in this stat, which is why the need for two additional back-end studs.
    3 points
  46. That is one thing I can guarantee won't be happening any time soon.
    3 points
  47. I think Viola is a Twin in good standing. He’s been in the booth in a very affable manner with Dick and xxx and been very personable, showing no sign of any bitterness. I read his tweet as a criticism of management and manager, frankly deserved. How do you manage to pull off taking a 101 win team where Schoop and Cron contributed greatly to the Hr record to a 90 or so loss team. How do you take a pitching staff good enough to win 101 games and totally decimate it in two years. How do you make signings as bad as Happ, Shoemaker, trade away Pressley for insufficient return, cast aside 30 HR hitting Eduardo Escobar, just let Trevor May go for nothing, Wisler for nothing, Clippard for nothing, shed Rich Hill, sign Hansel Robles and Colome to replace the relievers they kicked away. They blew it by not signing a legit cf backup for Buxton. And not signing a LF to replace Rosario. The only way I see to fix the mess with Falvine still in place is to sign Robby Ray and Danny Duffy and re-sign Pineda, hope Ryan is the real deal and use Ober. They still have 5 poisitions that are shaky or subpar, LF where Kirilloff may need to play, RF with Kepler with a .211 average. I admit he’s been better lately but he’s had low averages most of his career. Sano has rebounded nicely but will he slump mightily next year before recovering. I hope he’s turned the corner. Buxton’s a question mark only because he rarely plays a half a season. I’m hoping he plays the rest of this season well and stays healthy and they can come together on an extension. Larnach needs to figure out how to handle breaking balls. I think Frank Viola cares about the Twins and is dismayed. I love the Twins. They’ve been the love of my life since I was 8 yrs old in 1964. That didn’t stop me from being at my wits end when Calvin Griffith let Bill Campbell, Tom Burgmeir, Lyman Bostock, Larry Hisle, Dan Ford, Rod Carew, Gary Ward, Dave Goltz all leave in about a four year period. Admittedly that was worse than this.
    3 points
  48. bean5302

    Believing in Ober

    Ober's K:BB ratio was absolutely dominating while still striking out more than 10.0 per 9 innings at every level across the minors while not allowing a lot of hits, either. The biggest knock against Ober was how much time he missed with injury, which is also related to the reason he was drafted so low. Ober's velocity certainly doesn't look like the dominant model of the day, but there are plenty of very good pitchers out there who's average fastball is very similar to Ober's. Ober's strikeout and walk rates are both better than Jose Berrios this year and his xFIP is almost as good. Berrios gives up fewer hits partially due to a favorable BABIP. Now, I'm not saying Ober is as good as Berrios. Ober has a whopping 68 innings pitched at the MLB level, but with little time at AA or AAA, the results suggest a pretty high ceiling for a non-elite prospect.
    3 points
  49. 4twinsJA

    Believing in Ober

    I really like Ober, not that he is a future CY Young candidate or even top of the rotation pitcher, but a solid starting pitcher for Twins. Ober's case is a good argument against needing X amount of time or innings at each level before someone can advance.
    3 points
  50. bean5302

    Believing in Ober

    Ober's been a bright spot this season for sure and I think there's no doubt the team is looking at him as a rotation piece next year. Given the lengthy research showing innings limits and pitch limits have no value, you'd think all the analytics oriented front offices would finally accept that, but it seems like the dark ages of arm wear myths will continue to reign supreme. That said, it seems like a lot of pitchers are running on empty as the season winds down. If the Twins have reason to suspect Ober is wearing down, giving him extra rest is the obvious answer.
    2 points
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