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Yes, we all know that health uncertainty is the banner headline for the 2023 Twins. "If they're healthy" is the rallying cry for even the most optimistic fan. As pivotal as they are, these situations just aren't very fun to analyze or talk about, because they feel so beyond anyone's control. Much of the team's outlook hinges on whether Tyler Mahle can pitch without shoulder weakness, and Alex Kirilloff can swing without pain. These things either will happen or they won't, and if they don't, it's not necessarily anyone's fault. The human body is fickle. Today I'm going to look at five critical points of uncertainty for the Twins that have nothing to do with injuries. (Well, almost nothing.) Instead, it's about these players proving they can deliver in areas where the club really needs them if they're to achieve their goals. 1. Can Joe Ryan excel against good teams? Hidden in Ryan's very good overall numbers last year (13-8, 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts) is the fact that his success was largely buoyed by beating up on horrible AL Central opponents. In eight starts against the Royals and Tigers, the two teams he faced more than any other, Ryan went 8-0 with a 0.94 ERA. He won every start, allowing just five earned runs on 26 hits (one homer) in 48 innings. Look: that's an absurd level of dominance against any major-league lineup. Ryan certainly deserves a ton of credit for being absolutely automatic in those match-ups. But the flip side is that against all other opponents, he went 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA. The 26-year-old has already established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter who can take care of business against lesser lineups. But with so many question marks elsewhere in the rotation, the Twins are really leaning on him to be more. Showing he can up his game against better offenses than Detroit and KC will be key, both because he'll face less of each in the rebalanced schedule, and because the Twins will (hopefully) need starters they can count on in the postseason. 2. Can Jorge Polanco fill Luis Arraez's OBP void? There's no question that Arraez's ability to get on base will be deeply missed, and his departure raises questions about how a power-driven lineup will fare without his penchant for creating opportunities. There's reason to hope Polanco can make up for some of what the top of the order just lost. You might look at Polanco's career .334 OBP and say, eh, nothing special. Even his .346 mark last year was quite ordinary. But here's the thing: he posted it while batting a career-low .235, thanks to DOUBLING his walk rate from 2021. Polanco's 14.4% BB rate last year would've ranked fifth-best in baseball if his at-bats qualified. If the newfound patience sticks and Polanco is able to sustain a similar walk rate while his batting average rebounds to somewhere in the range of his .270 career benchmark, you've got the recipe for an Arraez-like OBP, or better. To wit: if Polanco walked at same rate in 2021 – when he batted .269 with a .323 OBP – as he did in 2022, he would've had 92 walks and a .395 on-base percentage. 3. Can Nick Gordon make himself essential? Gordon is coming off a breakthrough season that earned him Most Improved Twin honors and saw him accrue nearly 450 plate appearances. In many cases, a campaign like that for a former first-round draft pick would open the door for a big opportunity, if not a starting role. But the circumstances of the offseason leave him in a spot where he'll be scrapping for playing time from the start, and potentially buried on the depth chart. He's not their top backup center fielder (that's Michael A. Taylor). He's not their best lefty-swinging backup corner OF or DH option (that's Trevor Larnach). He's not their top backup anywhere in the infield, and in fact, I'd be somewhat surprised if the Twins view him as anything more than an emergency option on the dirt. Injuries can of course change the equation here, but as things stand, Gordon will have a hard time finding his way off the bench with any regularity. That is, unless he can force the issue. At times last year the former light-hitting shortstop looked like a game-changing offensive force, like in August when he slashed .321/.360/.531 with three steals and 17 RBIs in 26 games. Gordon was electric. Bring more of that to the table, and Rocco Baldelli will find a way to get Gordon into the lineup as much as he can. 4. Can José Miranda play third base effectively? The viability of Miranda's bat is not in question after a convincing rookie campaign that saw him handle everything MLB pitchers could throw at him, thanks to high-contact swing that generated power to all fields. Now he needs to define his defensive future. If he's able to hold on as a capable third baseman, at least for a few years, as opposed to switching to 1B/DH duty, it'd be a boon for the team's planning and lineup-building. An early slide down the defensive spectrum diminished Arraez's value in the front office's eyes, but Miranda can still avoid that route. Thus far, I would say the signs are less than encouraging. His defense at third base checked out pretty poorly last year, by almost any measure or metric, and scouting reports were hardly glowing in the minors. But plenty of third basemen who looked rough as rookies went on to establish themselves at the hot corner (calling Corey Koskie), and Miranda's still only 24. His offseason efforts to slim down have also notably resulted in a body that, per Carlos Correa, "looks sexy." We'll see if the defense can follow suit. 5. Can Jorge Alcalá get lefties out? Coming off a season where he made only two appearances due to an elbow injury that ultimately required debridement surgery, Alcalá is obviously a health question mark. Can his arm hold up, much less get back to pumping the upper-90s heat that led to big results in 2020/21? The Twins seem to be counting on it, because they have yet to make any significant additions to their bullpen this offseason. Unless that changes, they're banking largely on Alcalá's return to provide depth in the mid-to-late innings, setting the table for Jhoan Durán and Jorge López at the back end. Even assuming he's healthy, Alcalá needs to turn one more corner to be the kind of weapon the Twins need him to be. He needs to overcome his susceptibility against left-handed pitchers, who have pummeled him to the tune of .275/.358/.508 in his MLB career. That .866 OPS is 354 points higher than his mark against righties. Baldelli will have the ability to strategically deploy Alcalá in favorable match-ups to an extent, but if the righty wants to truly be relied upon as a key late-inning weapon, he'll need to show he can handle the lefty sluggers and pinch-hitters that come his way.

Devin Smeltzer operated in the most thankless of MLB roles: a Triple-A swingman. Always relied upon when the inevitable pitcher injury bug struck but never promised a spot with the big club. He was meant to be discarded, called up to soak innings, before heading back to St. Paul with a major-league paycheck in his pocket as a reward for his troubles. MLB playing time is better than slumming it in the minors, but the mental drain involved in bouncing between teams takes a toll. It almost never happened. A tumor discovered as a child threatened Smeltzer’s life—not just his playing career. Stricken with a terrible sickness, Smeltzer found solace in baseball, making trips to Citizens Bank Park to watch an elite Phillies team on the rise. Among stars like Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, and Jimmy Rollins, Smeltzer picked out Chase Utley—Philadelphia’s all-around offensive threat, capable of reaching base while slugging at a rate typically unheard of for second baseman—as his favorite player. They met, and an unlikely relationship blossomed. Now healthy and pitching well, a 20-year-old Smeltzer found himself drafted by the Dodgers—the team that now employed Utley. They met again in Spring Training in 2018. A mid-season trade brought Smeltzer to the Twins that year. With a better chance to crack a weaker Twins rotation than the stacked Dodgers, Smeltzer debuted in 2019 with an unforgettable start. The stats could speak for themselves: Smeltzer challenged a playoff-bound Brewers team, one led by reigning MVP Christian Yelich, and dominated. Six innings, seven strikeouts, and no earned runs constituted one of the finest debuts a pitcher can have, but the numbers barely matter; the spectacle of watching Smeltzer—someone who once struggled with cancer at an age intended for carelessness—pitch at the major league level was enough to move every person in the ballpark. Jack Morris could barely speak. Smeltzer tossed 49 innings for the 2019 Twins but spent the next two seasons on the outskirts, consistently passed over as Minnesota looked elsewhere for pitching help. A bevy of injuries created an opportunity for Smeltzer in 2022. With plentiful openings in the rotation, Smeltzer collected 12 starts, accruing 70 1/3 frames for a team in desperate need of them. He was a godsend. But the life of a pitcher on the fringes isn’t a kind one. Fresh out of minor-league options, the Twins saw no need to keep Smeltzer around, jettisoning him to open waters for another team to swipe up. The Marlins did just that. It could be easy to paint Smeltzer’s career in broad strokes. His fastball wasn’t perfect—he could use a few more ticks—and his breaking ball wasn’t ideal—he had trouble getting lefties out—but doing so would be a disservice. Smeltzer was dutiful, consistent. When Minnesota needed innings, he was there, able to gobble frames while the team shifted around paperwork, searching for long-term solutions to their problems. Objectified for his availability, not his performance, Smeltzer served his role well. Not all players are legends; not all Twins are classic. Between the Joe Mauers and Kirby Pucketts—and even the Matt Guerriers—stands an army Devin Smeltzers, players whose contributions may be easy to miss, but are necessary nonetheless. Miami’s plans for him are unclear; the team enjoys a ransom of pitching riches—with one fewer arm, as of late—making chances for Smeltzer to crack their rotation difficult. But he’s faced obstacles before. Biding time is a small ask for someone with Smeltzer's fortitude.

Rewind a year or two and the likes of Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff were seen as foundational pieces for Rocco Baldelli’s future lineup. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had put together an organizational structure allowing such young talents to thrive, and the pair looked the part of potential superstars in the not-so-distant future. When looking at the Minnesota lineup this year, plenty has been suggested about a team that struggled to score runs in 2022 and not a substantial amount of addition. What that unfortunately negates is a belief in youth that had once been there. Yes, Carlos Correa is back, and Joey Gallo could rebound. Christian Vazquez is probably better than Gary Sanchez, but the overhaul hasn’t been substantial. It shouldn’t need to be though, if the power pair can produce. For the past couple of seasons, we have seen Kirilloff struggle with a wrist injury that has had him nowhere near his best. Playing in just 104 games at the big league level the past two seasons, Kirilloff has compiled a mediocre 94 OPS+. The on-base skills are hardly what they were in the minors, and his power production has been all but sapped. At least we have answers as to why. It was clear at different points over the past two seasons that when Kirilloff’s wrist wasn’t nagging him, the bat was as expected. He’s not the prototypical slugger that sells out for power. When right, Kirilloff should possess the ability to be a .300 or better hitter while driving the ball to all fields. With his wrist nagging him, follow through at the point of contact was non-existent, and a rare double seemed to be as good as it gets. Having undergone a much more aggressive wrist surgery late last season, the hope is that Kirilloff can put the injury behind him. He is trending well, and there has been no shutdown similar to the one we were made aware of last offseason. He’s hitting, working on baseball activities, and being anywhere near full health should strike fear in opposing pitchers on a daily basis. For Larnach, the injury history is not as substantial. A core muscle surgery sidelined him for the remainder of last season following a strong start. He wound up playing in just 51 games, but tallied a 104 OPS+. The power spiked a bit more than we saw during his 2021 debut, and it was starting to look like he was settling in as a big leaguer. Although the bat has long been lauded as his calling card, Larnach also fared incredibly well in the outfield. Team’s continued to run on him in left field, and he racked up assists while routinely nailing runners at the plate. Although not as athletic as some of Minnesota’s other outfield defenders, Larnach proved far more than just a bat-only type of player. Having taken time to fully heal, the expectation should be that he can hit the ground running and produce in a big way this year. The Twins have a significant amount of lefty bats they may need to balance in the lineup, but Larnach could certainly get run at the designated hitter spot. If he can hold serve anything like he did on the farm, and has shown in brief stints at the highest level, Baldelli will have plenty to be excited about when putting him in the lineup. Maybe the Twins could have done more to add ability into the lineup this offseason. That said, banking on the development they have always been encouraged by is hardly a misstep either. This pair of prospects have topped charts and been highly anticipated for some time. Still young, and now healthy, breakouts for both could be on the horizon.