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    Matthew Lenz

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    tony&rodney

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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/19/2021 in all areas

  1. More interested in turning our own minor league prospects into stars than working on someone else's. I am looking at Ober, Balazovic, Ryan, Strotman and Winder in the rotation next year. I know I would not get it, but sign Pineda and let one of these be number 6. If we are so good at tweaking, take our own. It seems like the other teams prospects always seem more attractive.
    6 points
  2. Defining an ace is more difficult than ever these days ago now that bullpens are soaking up more innings. Berrios is exactly the type of guy we would want to target in free agency. A bulldog who gives his team a chance to win almost every time he pitches. Never gets injured, and pitches 6-7 innings each outing. He’s done very well in Toronto. I expected him to keep up his production after he left us. And he’s done better. I am still not thrilled with the trade.
    4 points
  3. As long as you mention it, can I ask you a question? What is it about Berrios that you see as inconsistent, especially with respect to other starting pitchers? Is it the occasional bad start? Don’t most good pitchers have the occasional bad start, though? I look at the Berrios career stat line (not going to post it here; it can be looked up on many sites) and in all truth I cannot imagine how he could be any more consistent. I’m not calling him an ace, but has he been consistently good? I think so. Why don’t you think so?
    4 points
  4. Twins Face Old Friend, José Berríos The Minnesota Twins are slated to face former ace-to-be José Berríos on Sunday who has a 3.31/3.47 ERA/FIP in his new threads with what would be a career best 5.50 K/BB if it were sustained over an entire season. Those numbers would be even better if you take out two starts where he allowed 10 earned runs with a K/BB of 9/7 over 7.1 innings pitched. For the first time in his career (I’m sensing a theme here), José Berríos is sustaining his first half success over the second half of the season. For the first time in his career (Ope, there it is again), José Berríos is consistently giving his team innings and production that he couldn’t do in his time with the Twins. For the first time in his career (ARGH), José Berríos has me thinking maybe he’s turned that corner that he could never turn as a member of the Minnesota Twins. And he’s doing all of it for a team that isn’t the Minnesota Twins. Blue Jays Old Friend, Josh Donaldson, Slugging Them Into Submission The Minnesota Twins 3B/DH is 3-for-8 with two bombs and 3 RBI so far in the series. In six games against his former club, where he won an MVP, two silver sluggers and a Hank Aaron Award, he has an OPS of 1.233 with five extra base-hits, seven runs scored, and eight runs batted in. Conversation Starter Who were your favorite old friends to follow even after they left the Minnesota Twins? I’ll share mine below!
    4 points
  5. 2018 was definitely an exception to your rule. You can admit it if you want an honest debate. Berrios 3.4 bWAR Odorizzi 1.2. Berrios was an all star again in 2019 with 3.1 bWAR, Odorizzi 3.5. He was better that year. Maeda was better for 11 starts in 2020 I’ll say that too. Who’s been better out of all 3 since 2017? Also, talk about taking my having fun out of context. He always had a smile and worked hard while he was here. While you build a pitching staff in Minnesota for 2022 and beyond, what criteria are you looking for? My guess is Berrios checks off many boxes. Durability, production, control, striking out players.
    4 points
  6. 4 points
  7. That certainly is an endearing name you have for Cuddyer
    4 points
  8. My favorite “old friend” was Michael Cuddyer. Still is my favorite all-time Twin. Cuddly and Moreau both won batting championships for the Rockies and Cuddyer got a chance to play in the World Series for the Mets.
    4 points
  9. I think you give way too much credit to Berrios. There were a lot 'ifs' in proclaiming him 'ace to be'. José is what he is ... a solid pitcher, but not an ace, not a No. 1. (Well, a no. 1 on a bad team, but over all a solid no. 2 pitcher on a good team.) I mean ... 'if not for his starts giving up 10 runs' ... lol Hmmm ... favorite player who left ... once they leave they are dead to me. Okay, not really. I kept tabs a bit on Greg Gagne when he left. Morneau when he left - it nearly killed me when he signed with the White Sox, but that didn't last long. Hated to see his career go the way it did due to the concussions. I was hoping Pittsburgh would go further into the playoffs that year, and glad he found a little of himself again in Colorado. And Escobar and Rosario. Esco is just a treasure wherever he goes. And as much as I love Rosario, I really haven't followed too much about what he's doing. He is who he is and I loved him on the team and just don't want to think about him elsewhere.
    4 points
  10. Yes, that was the joke. For the record, my pick up lines were much worse. But thanks for playing along.
    4 points
  11. Don't believe the hype. I hit 1000 strikeouts at the Fall social my Junior year of college, when I was much younger than Sano. Watch me build on the real record at the tavern this weekend. Seriously though, nice write-up Seth.
    4 points
  12. Jose Berrios is an excellent MLB starting pitcher and his ability to take the ball every time his turn comes up is laudable. We won't be confusing Berrios with Max Scherzer as an absolute ace but he is really good and I'm at a loss to understand why everyone doesn't understand his importance to a team that wants to win.
    3 points
  13. Berrios actually averaged a healthy number of innings per start under Baldelli. He was 15th in IP in 2019 and 35th in IP in the weird 2020 season. The "Baldelli has a quick hook" crowd's complaints aren't really based in reality. The Twins are mid-pack in starter innings pretty much every season.
    3 points
  14. This game wasn’t nearly as bad as I expected it to be after the first inning. But damn that ninth inning was pathetic. Kepler needs to spend the off-season taking thousands of pitches and bunting them to third.
    3 points
  15. Interesting fun fact! Not sure how it fits in with what I said in the message you quoted
    3 points
  16. In his Twins career Berrios had an "average" BB/9 and averaged less than 6 innings per start. Sure, he had a good amount of strikeouts but he danced around the zone too much to be considered a bulldog and you definitely couldn't not rely on him to give you 6-7 innings per outing. Yes, he gave you a chance, but as the teams #1 you expect more than that. All that said, in his month and a half with Toronto he's been the exact pitcher you described.
    3 points
  17. I know stats are important and the people on this board are crazy good at understanding stats. I am more the average fan who enjoys the players more than their stats. Berrios is so intense and such a hard worker I think staying with the Twins probably wasn't in his best interest because he needs to be on a competitive team. I love when Austidillo plays because he isn't bad and his love of the game is pure and you can see that on the field and it was one a few bright spots this season. Buxton is pretty good with the potential to be amazing (I think this could be his last season as a Twin), Donaldson and Sano bring the hopes of HR's and it is exciting. I wish we had Cruz as our DH, Rosario in CF, Polanco at 2nd and Escobar at SS. That would be a fun team to watch on an everyday consistent basis. I don't like all the mix and match and never knowing who is playing. We will need to start bringing up the youngsters to fill in for those who have left or leave. Kepler is like watching paint dry but I don't know what he does for the team overall except for the on stat I get and that is average. Kind of got off on a rant, I miss Escobar, Rosario, Cruz an Berrios. Missed Hunter horribly too.
    3 points
  18. I feel this way about very few players but it happens from time to time. It really stung to see Johan traded. I'll be quite angry if Buxton is traded.
    3 points
  19. "The price would certainly be high, perhaps involving an already established player such as Max Kepler or Mitch Garver. " I've given up on the idea that anyone would trade a decent starting pitcher for Max, unfortunately. Right now I don't know that we could get a decent outfielder for him. Other people's projects...I'm not convinced about our ability to work magic with them.
    3 points
  20. .261 .364 .486 .850 That line is excellent - don't complain because he finally gets his chance. This is not pity, this is an earned promotion.
    3 points
  21. I also gave up no hits and failed to pitch nine innings today. Still counting it as a no-no, like God intended.
    3 points
  22. At first I was guessing this was purely an artifact of his era. If so, expect the record to be broken within a few short years, by someone already well on his way. Perfect use for baseball-reference.com's Stathead tool. So I asked for a list of active players with 1000 or fewer SO, to see who might be a candidate. Everyone near the top of that sorted list already had more than the 660 games Sano has. So then I asked it to show me such candidates who also had fewer than that number of games. Joey Gallo has 868 SO in 613 games - he's not going to make it at that rate. Aaron Judge has 772 in 558 - slightly better rate but that's not going to cut it. Yoan Moncada with 671/525 - nope. The tool doesn't (to my knowledge) let me sort by a ratio, but a quick scan of the list sorted by SO doesn't reveal a viable candidate with any kind of track record. As with any negative milestone of counting stats (e.g. 20 losses by a starting pitcher) you have to be pretty good to achieve it. The truly bad never make it that far. Congratulations, Miguel. Your record may stand a while.
    3 points
  23. Okay, this is pretty fun. Here's my takeaway: 1. Front Office: 30% - They chose the wrong horses at nearly every opportunity. Outside of Ober, they failed to protect good players (including Miranda, they were simply lucky no one selected him). They paid all the wrong people. If there was a decision to be made, they made the wrong one (outside of Cruz). 2. Players: 30% - They're the ones who took the field. No one coached Happ into becoming a crap pitcher. No one told Sano to go into his typical early season funk, except moreso this time. No one told basically the entire roster to underperform for two full months. Out of the lists above this one, I find it odd and a little amusing how reluctant anyone is to assign proper blame to the millionaires who go out there and win actual baseball games. 3. Injuries: 20% - On top of many bad decisions, basically everyone, especially the minor leaguers, decided to be injured... basically for the entirety of the first three months of the season. Even guys who should have helped stop the bleeding - like Maeda - only contributed more to it because they faced constant injuries and the resulting bad performance. There was no relenting with this team. The bad decisions were the front office's fault but no quarter was to be found anywhere to cover their mistakes. 4. Colome & Simmons: 15% - It's easy to forget that this team started 5-2 and could easily have started 7-0. It's hard to know how the Twins would have recovered from other players' underperformance had these two meddling kids not done everything in their power to tank the entire team permanently. Tag-teaming on top of the bad front office decisions, these two players, respectively, tried to break the franchise record for negative WPA and tried to knock out half the (already depleted) roster with Covid, all within the first three weeks of the season. Without either or preferably both of them, we may have seen a very different baseball season in 2021. 5. Manager & Coaches: 5% - I don't know where to put them, frankly. Between all of them, maybe they're the biggest problem... but I'm not talking about Rocco here, I'm talking about the coaches. I simply don't see how Rocco has a significant influence on play unless we're talking clubhouse demeanor... but this was a veteran team full of players used to winning. Had there been an easy fix to this mess, any number of veterans could have stepped forward into a leadership role and righted the ship. As for the on-field underperformance, I have no clue. It's hard to judge coaches but it's pretty obvious they didn't do a great job. This number could just as easily be 25%, primarily on the pitching and hitting coaches, as the 5% I gave it.
    3 points
  24. Baseball is a tough business, especially for the players. Everyone wants a shot and a bonus baby needs to go through the same trials as a last minute add. We sure hope Sabato keeps improving at each level. The White Sox received some valuable contributions from a somewhat similar player, Andrew Vaughan, this year. Sabato is early in his career; there's time.
    2 points
  25. To put this in a different context... From 1996-2001, Brad Radke posted a 118 ERA+. From 2017-2021, Jose Berrios posted a 118 ERA+. (the symmetry here is unexpected but I thought it'd be close, which is why I looked it up in the first place) Do we remember Radke as an ace for a postseason team? Probably not, which is why I view Berríos as the type of guy you love to be starting the second game of a series in October but not fronting the rotation.
    2 points
  26. Trade for an already good pitcher, or don't bother, imo. They have plenty of prospects to fix.... No sense trying to fix a veteran. That's why you sign a bounce back candidate.
    2 points
  27. I guess that I never considered Berrios an ace or a bulldog. I view an ace as a stopper that I could depend on without question to stop a losing skid and to take the ball every 5th day. With that said, there simply aren't that many aces in today's game. I like Berrios and think he's a good pitcher that I wish were still here, but I don't see him as anything more than a #2 starter on a good staff. He's one of those "staff aces" that he can anchor an average or poor staff, but not a good playoff team staff. A true ace can dominate a playoff game, and he's been outdualed his fair share. All that said, he was dependable and could be trusted to take the ball every 5th day. But I never looked at him as a true stopper or a guy to even give the bullpen a day off. Still, I'd rather have him than not. Admittedly, by that definition, a true ace is probably a dinosaur I'm today's game. But there are still several left.
    2 points
  28. Oh I completely agree with you. My biggest complaint of him has always been his inefficiency. Watching him dance around the strike zone with his plus “stuff” was frustrating as hell. IMO that’s the biggest limiting factor in his ceiling.
    2 points
  29. He’s consistently average. Inconsistently good and bad. You never knew if you could count on him for 5 innings or 7. 2 earned runs or 4. I never said he was bad. But a career 4.01 FIP, average of 5.2 IP/start, and 2.9 BB/9 speaks for itself. His 1st half and 2nd half splits are pretty different. Sure, from year to year he was consistently average. But the road to those numbers was very up and down.
    2 points
  30. My position is he’s a top 30 pitcher in baseball. Is he the best pitcher on the Dodgers? Absolutely not. But he would be on probably 20 teams. And he’s young enough to still progress to the level of Scherzer and whoever else you consider a true ace. The question is how do you define an ace? It’s more difficult to define now more than ever. Are there only 5 true aces? 10? Regardless, Berrios is very good. I’ll take him on my team all day every day. Martin better be good to great. I have no confidence SWR is going to contribute anything at the MLB level in the next calendar year. If ever.
    2 points
  31. Part of your consideration is blaming the results for the results??
    2 points
  32. If we trade for pitching, I prefer we trade for an established starter. We already have enough projects. We only need to resign Pineda and a good starter for our rotation. Especially if Ryan continues to show he is a major league pitcher.
    2 points
  33. I appreciate the scouring for a deal, but the Twins need a #1 and #2 pitcher. Sifting through the bargain bin in the hopes somebody turns into one isn't my preference. Hernandez (26) will be nearly 27 at the start of next season and with 4 years in the big show, has only had 1 nice season in 2020 which featured only 25 innings pitched, but his FIP suggested a lot of luck in the limited sample size. His FIP this year stands at 5.08 suggesting, again, he's just gotten lucky in limited appearances. In regard to his "stuff" he's a soft tosser with an average velocity of 91mph without showing much in the minors. After 6 years in Houston's system, he still hadn't seen AA and was left off the 40 man roster. Miami selected him in a rule 5 draft so he got fast tracked to MLB from there and he's managed to hang on at the fringes with a team in a rebuild. Javier (24) will be 7 years removed from his draft and 25 before the start of next season. Another Houston prospect. He's posted very uninspiring FIP numbers in the high minors and MLB as a swing starter. He didn't exactly fly through the minors and that's generally a mark against front line potential. His career MLB BABIP is .218 and he's due for huge regression from his 3.33 ERA to his 4.33 xFIP. I don't think it's a surprise his K rate and BB rate both ballooned this year as his velocity increased 1.5mph, likely due to max effort throwing afforded by the bullpen conversion. Toussant (25) may have a gif with a 97mph fastball, but that's way faster than normal for him (94mph) and he's largely abandoned that pitch this year in favor of his sinker (93mph), I'd assume to get his walk rate to playable levels. He's basically a sinker, splitfinger, curve pitcher this year and that explains the drop off in K rate as sinkers are generally better at inducing ground balls and weak contact than strikeouts. Historically, his sinker didn't play well so I'm not sure what's better about it this year unless it just plays better without the four seamer. Without the strikeouts, there's nothing to see here.
    2 points
  34. Sano has never hit 40 in his career. He'll likely just baaaaaarely get to 30 for the second time this year and I'd say he has an pretty outside shot at 40 once in his career. Kepler has a higher career best home run total than Sano at 36 vs 34.
    2 points
  35. He has more at stake and more to prove with the Jays. But he's always been the player who has always bet against himself.
    2 points
  36. Wow, you might be the first person to accuse me of giving Berríos too much credit I hope the other TD guys checkout the thread today! I’ve been a “Berríos is a low end #2 on a contending team” guy for years. Of course I bought into the hype early on but quickly jumped off that wagon. I know you can’t totally discount 2 starts but the fact is that in the other seven starts he has 44.1 IP (avg 6.1) with a 1.83 ERA and an 18.33 K/BB. Aces aren’t perfect but if he can avoid anymore blow ups, which is career says he can’t, he might have the best August + September numbers in baseball.
    2 points
  37. Toussaint isn't Shoemaker, but I think Hernandez is, due to the injuries and tendencies. I like Touki a lot, I just don't know how to value him in a deal with the Braves, though they'd probably bite for an OF, depending on what they do with all of their rentals currently on the roster. I tr.ied to post the other day about getting a fill-in SS to fill the roster for 23, and spend big money on a SP1, Ober, Ryan in the middle somewhere, and try to go cheap/lucky for another middle SP (one of these guys or resign Pineda), and then let #5 be in flux (Jax, inevitable bargain-bin pickup) until the rest of the kids can work their way to the rotation- Balazovic, Winder, Stotman, etc, with one of them filling the spot after the AS break. I like Javier, but Houston has learned it's lesson, I think, and we won't want to pay the price needed (They'd want Buxton, basically).
    2 points
  38. "If we are so good at tweaking" .... that's the 64,000 dollar question. Are we REALLY any good at tweaking? I think the jury is still out on that....
    2 points
  39. I agree with most of the above. Issue is what will it cost, we may have better options here. I also don't think Kepler will bring much. Garver might, but will it be worth it. We shall see.
    2 points
  40. This post lists three legitimate pitchers to target. Because they remain works in progress, each of Hernandez, Javier, and Toussaint profile as decent middle of rotation hurlers. These are good choices. I would add Eric Lauer as a possibility to that group and hope for some conversations towards a slightly better upgrade by targeting someone like Sandy Alcantara and/or German Marquez. Of course, these pitchers will cost the Twins. Unless the Twins are going to a full rebuild and are willing to lose 100+ games for a couple of years, a few (2-3) experienced pitchers will need to be added through trades or free agency. The Pohlads need only look at attendance figures for those teams that are competitive (TB/Oak = outliers) to see that a rebuild is near a million fans less per year. Prospects who are ready will push their way on to the roster, Tampa Bay being an example.
    2 points
  41. While it is worth noting that Sanó has struck out a bit less this year (per PA), it is equally important to point out that there has been no overall improvement in his numbers. Apparently, he is what he is—an inconsistent slugger prone to slumps and strikeouts. When he came into the league, I thought he had a chance to be another Frank Thomas, but his profile looks much more like Mark Reynolds or Chris Davis.
    2 points
  42. You forgot to add “GET OF MY LAWN!!” ok, maybe the all caps was a bit much .
    2 points
  43. ...they said over and over and over again to Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer, shortly before both players waived at it yet again. If they got lucky, they'd accidentally hit one to deep second base/short right field. At least when Sano connects, it's not some loopy little fly ball to short right field. I'll take his light tower power and the strikeouts that come along with it over the two most frustrating Twins legends' approaches every time.
    2 points
  44. He made $3,000 today... which is more than most minor leaguers make in 2-4 weeks. Oh, and he'll make another $3,000 tomorrow. And, I'm not sure if he'll still be up the next day, but if he is... $3,000. And yes, the 2021 Twins are not competitive. So all good with a feel-good story.
    2 points
  45. If I’m honest, my first thought was “Ugh, just get the real prospects up already.” Then I read Betsy Helfand’s piece and this one, cried a bit and realized I still love this game.
    2 points
  46. "That said, when Sano makes contact, a lot of good things happen, so I for one would certainly love to see him make more contact." And therein lies the problem. Contact. To me the saddest? thing about watching him hit is that when he gets 2 strikes, the only thing keeping him from striking out is whether the pitcher can locate that breaking ball just off the bottom corner of the strike zone "box" off the outside corner. I know it’s coming, he knows it’s coming, and by now my wife knows it’s coming. And he still swings at it, while pulling away, over and over and, well you get the picture. Yup, he can ruin an opposing pitchers day. But while he does that, there are few that wouldn’t want to face him in close RBI situations. Few runs are driven in with a K. But lots are with a deep fly ball, or even a GB.
    2 points
  47. Great move by the Twins. Have believed they should keep four or five AAAA types in St. Paul for multiple years. Solid players the Saints fans can follow long term. Maggi could be one of them.
    2 points
  48. I think the on thing that is verifiably true is that Front Office has done much better than the second time around Ryan Front Office. Now, is it good enough to take the Twins to consistently competitive and win a World Series or two? The jury is still out. The positives - pitching pipeline is starting to hit with Ober and hopefully Winder and Balazovic, decent early returns on drafts with Kirilloff, and they made two good prospect trades with the Blue Jays and Rays. The negatives - too many reclamation projects in the bullpen, very poor evaluation of potential veteran starters this year with Happ and Shoemaker, and an inability to re-sign Berrios or as of yet extend Buxton (although ownership may share in that failure). The Ryan group had to go for the Twins to move forward. This group is better. Not sure if it's good enough. To me, the criticism that this FO has not signed a top FA pitcher is simply unfair and ignores the real problems we have in the FA market. We don't get top FA pitchers because we aren't willing to pay the freight and because the players would rather go to the markets where the ancillary money opportunities are better and the weather is better. We didn't sign Berrios because we weren't willing to pay him what he wanted. Someone else will and that is the reality of the FA market. You want a top FA starter? Prices start at 20m - 25m a year for multiple years. You don't want to pay that for a guy who maybe isn't a top 5 or 6 pitcher or a guy who's been hurt in the past because of the risk? Then you don't get anybody. Marcus Stroman next year. $20m plus for at least 3-5 years. And that's before we consider the fact that he could make another $3-$5m in endorsement income if he's personable enough and goes to LA, NY or Chicago and there's lots of places he can go where it isn't snowing in April. The Twins are probably going to have to overpay for a top tier free agent starter. Bottom line, if you're not willing to pay for a Mercedes, get off the lot. You have to pay and then pay again if the first guy stinks or gets hurt if you want to play with the big boys in free agency. We don't do that and that's not on the FO, that's on ownership. Sorry to go on a rant there. I just think we have to judge this FO on what the best (and perhaps only) way for Twins to compete; Drafting and development of our own young players, particularly pitchers. The grade so far is incomplete because they haven't yet had quite enough time. We'll know pretty well by the end of the 2022 season where we stand on the development side. That's when we can judge and that's the criteria to me.
    2 points
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