Jump to content
  • Create Account

Leaderboard

  1. Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp

    Administrator


    • Points

      31

    • Posts

      26,644


  2. nicksaviking

    nicksaviking

    Community Moderator


    • Points

      28

    • Posts

      16,284


  3. RickOShea

    RickOShea

    Verified Member


    • Points

      26

    • Posts

      1,294


  4. TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan

    Old-Timey Member


    • Points

      25

    • Posts

      17,575


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/26/2021 in all areas

  1. The Twins got 2 decent pitching prospects, including one who was rated #98 overall in 2020, for a 41 year old DH on an expiring deal. As one of one the better relief pitchers in baseball consistently for the past 6 seasons and still with 1 1/2 years of control, Taylor Rogers should have a bit more trade value than as just a throw-in as it seems in deals #1 and especially #2.
    11 points
  2. Before we rush to call the Twins cheap skates, shouldn't we know a bit more about the "unique incentives package" and Buxton's counter-offer? Hayes seems to hint that Buxton wants more assured money in case he gets hurt again, which is totally reasonable, but isn't it also reasonable for the team to be wary of that? If the incentives are low-ball and meaningless, then I'd say the Twins are being cheap. If, however, he can hit 20M a year by just getting on the field, say, 60% of the time than I'd say they aren't being cheap at all. Only ten players in the entire league have gotten contracts in free agency over 4 years in the last three offseasons. Only 5 that have gotten 7 years or more in term: Harper, Machado, Cole, Rendon, and Strasburg. Teams don't hand out deals like this much anymore, so it wouldn't take those incentives being all that elaborate for them to be well in line with MLB behavior right now. (I'd argue they would be acting very generously on the term aspect relative to the rest of the league)
    10 points
  3. I voted no because there is context to this that we're unlikely to ever know, especially if they don't sign here. We don't know that the demands of the player are even remotely reasonable. Nor do we know that the FO has given them something completely unworkable. I'm also of the opinion that a FO shouldn't be fired solely because they weren't able to sign key in-house players. There's usually more to these decisions than what is considered in the vacuum that is contract negotiations with a single player/team.
    8 points
  4. One of thousands of middle finger strains resulting from the pitching of this Twins bullpen...
    6 points
  5. Can't agree with either of the Berrios trades. Forget the second piece leaving the Twins, the Twins should be asking about the return you suggest just for Jose...or more. He's the best pitcher available this July, he is a near ACE, he is young, durable and you have him for almost a year and a half. That's gonna cost you your #1 prospect, plus, plus. Wasn't it interesting what the Twins just got for Cruz after many were suggesting they would get little in return?
    6 points
  6. I would love to know a) what the incentive/escalator clauses looked like, b) the total potential value of the contracts the Twins offered, and c) what was the Buxton counter-offer. And I think it's wise to withhold judgment until those things are known, because without that information we're in the land of wild speculations. For those who think this is just the Twins being "cheap": They used Aaron Hicks contract as a baseline, not exactly out of line for an oft-injured CF, with potentially much more money available. And without knowing what the total package value actually is, calling the team cheap is a bit silly. If the escalator/incentive package increases the total value to $200M are they still being cheap? we have exactly the same amount of information that the maximum value is $200M as it being $100M. None. For those thinking the Twins are just covering themselves with the fan base with low-ball offers they know won't be accepted before dealing Buxton: y'all are already crushing the team presuming this is the case. Why exactly do you think the team is filled with people who think they call bluff Twins Nation into buying this with a vocal part of the community already hunting for them? Besides that, the counter from the Buxton camp hasn't leaked yet. If the Twins were trying to pull this maneuver, they would have leaked the counter immediately to let the world decide if it was reasonable or not, especially if it's wildly divergent from the Twins offer. I want Buxton to stay and get extended, but this is the hardest contract I've ever seen to assess risk and fair value. You have a player with massive ability and terrible health. star power combined with part-time availability. prime years that might never be realized. danger of accumulated injuries creating declining athleticism and an early decline phase. I literally have no idea what Buxton gets on the open market.
    6 points
  7. Phew. Graterol, Stewart, Romero, Gonsalves. Seems like a curse to have a bunch of top 100 pitching prospects. The Twins do much better with the non-top 100 pitching prospects like, uh..............
    5 points
  8. I voted yes but I think Levine should go. Not sure about Falvey. I don't think the Twins will keep either Buxton or Berrios. I'm sort of torn on what to do. In reality, the FO didn't do enough to help with the pitching staff when the window was open and I'm not sure what they can do to pry the window back up, absent signing Rodon, Gausman, and another starting pitcher this offseason. Berrios seems like the type of durable pitcher that will be solid until he's 32 or 33. But he should be the third best pitcher on a good staff. If we look at the 2001-2010 Twin rotations, Berrios would arguably be the third or fourth best pitcher most years. Ideally, you'd want that pitcher to either be on a short contract (Pineda, Rogers) or under team control. Instead, someone will probably give him a Zach Wheeler type deal. But the Twins don't have much in the pitching pipeline so if we lose him, it'll be really, really bad. Like, 100 loss bad, I think.
    5 points
  9. I think everyone wringing their hands about the fact that Buxton doesn't want to play for the Twins or that negotiations are over need to take a deep breath, 1. Nowhere in Rosenthal's article does it state that negotiations are over. The Twins offered $73 million guaranteed and the Buxton camp made a counteroffer. The Twins followed that up by offering $80 million and Buxton rejected that. 2. If Buxton simply didn't want to play for the Twins, would his camp have even made a counteroffer?
    5 points
  10. While I personally lean toward signing Buxton, I understand why others would prefer Berríos. But either way, the Twins can’t afford to let two very good players walk in free agency - or be traded - and compete at the highest level in the next couple of seasons. There’s still time to get something done but it needs to happen by Christmas and if this front office can’t ink either player, it may be time for them to go. And I’m not getting a good feeling after hearing their offer was so low on Buxton, possibly even insultingly low for someone of his talent level.
    4 points
  11. I know the percentage of right vs left is present, but Gordon has had far more at bats recently at the MLB level. Gordon is much faster that Astudillo, and I think Gordon has a higher on-base IQ. I leave Gordon hit and save Astudillo.
    4 points
  12. I think dealing Kepler is an awful idea. If Buxton is gone, Max is the CF. NO ONE in AAA, maybe AA, can both hit and field at this point (for an OF). Kepler can. Larnach probably isn't a good fielder either. I don't get trading Kepler at all.
    4 points
  13. The Twins have been buyers most of the past five years. Outside of 2018, when did they trade away anyone?
    4 points
  14. Some thoughts on this most interesting time for Twins Fans: I like Berrios and/or Rogers to the Dodgers. They need both of them, and they have good pitching talent to trade. Any discussion would have to start with Gray, who just made his MLB debut. I like Pineda and/or Simmons to the Mets. They don't want commitments for next year, but need SS help with Lindor's injury and starting pitching from Big Mike. Make them pay, quality over quantity please. Robles and/or Happ should be able to fetch a lottery ticket from someone. Colome, not so much. I would retain Donaldson unless someone gives a great offer, and the same for Buxton. Don't want to trade at low value from Buxton, and STILL want to try and sign him to some type of creative contract this off-season. Simple! :)
    4 points
  15. I'd like Weathers, but this deal is trash. The Twins say they want pre-arb MLB player and 2 top 100 guys for Berrios alone. This trade brings in the pre-arb guy in Weathers, and I think that'd be a good get to fill that part of the deal, but Mears and Rosario aren't the type of prospects the Twins should be looking at to fill the 2 top 100 guys. I think Mears has made some top 100 lists, but the Twins need up the middle guys, not no defense corner guys. And Rosario is a weak hitting utility IF guy who isn't very well thought of defensively. No desire for him to join our system, especially for our 2 best arms. I don't think the Padres are a good trade fit for the Twins. They've been very clear that they won't trade any of their top 4 prospects (Abrams, Gore, Hassell, Campusano) and if you can't get 1 of those guys they just don't have prospects left that meet what the Twins should be looking for.
    4 points
  16. I don’t know if I’m terribly interested in trading these guys unless top starting pitching prospects are the headline. I’m definitely not interested in trading the teams star reliever for reliever prospects though.
    4 points
  17. Kirby almost walked but the Twins ended up making him the highest paid player and it sounded like Eloise Pohlad was insistent on this happening. Everything seemed to indicate that Terry Ryan couldn't bring himself to offer Mauer his giant contract, then Bill Smith was hired and that was his top priority. Neither of Buxton or Berrios are the touchstone kind of players that Puckett or Mauer were, but I still think having top players is good for business and just like I suspect they might have with the prior big contracts, I could see the Pohlads influencing a signing. I'm not sure if this is entirely in Falvey and Lavine's hands. The front office got Kepler, Polanco and Sano on bargain extensions. They weren't all together cheap but they were very affordable and clearly lesser deals than Berrios or Buxton were going to command. They also DO spend in free agency despite what many say, however they tend to spend late into free agency, which absolutely means they are getting the guys on better terms, which is fine, but it also means they aren't exactly getting to CHOOSE who they sign. It seems to me there is an awful lot of the same mentality here as the past front office; getting a good deal is more important that getting the right player. I don't want that any longer.
    4 points
  18. It all depends what the players are looking for. Neither should take a discount, but that doesn't mean they're setting reasonable asking prices. If they're both asking for 30m a year guaranteed I'd want the FO fired for signing those deals. If Berrios is asking for 20m per and the FO is balking then I'd be upset. Buxton's situation is a whole different animal. We simply don't have enough information to know if the FO is screwing the negotiations up or making poor decisions. Without knowing what the players are really looking for it's impossible to know whether or not the Twins should be agreeing to their demands. "Sign them at any cost" isn't realistic or smart team management. I'd offer Berrios 5/100 right now. If he says 5/125 is his ask I'd see if we can agree on 5/115-120. I'd offer Buxton 7/100 with escalators that can bring it to 7/200 based on games played. If they won't sign those deals then trade them (now or during offseason) and take another run at them during free agency if their markets don't prove to be as robust as they are hoping for.
    4 points
  19. If you're not enjoying the Jose Miranda Experience, I just don't know what to tell you. I love seeing a player figure things out like this and really seize an opportunity. the question then becomes how it will translate in MLB, where there's no question it's much much tougher. This is an absolutely monster power surge from Miranda that's coming without him sacrificing anything on his K rate, so it's going to be really interesting to see how sustainable it is.
    4 points
  20. We see what you did there.
    4 points
  21. 3 points
  22. I would have rather had Gordon bat there, at least if he fails he starts the 10th on second base.
    3 points
  23. A wild pitcher, bring in a batter who doesn’t take pitches
    3 points
  24. I hate this. I just tuned in, saw it was 5-3, Colome pitching, and a runner on and I tell myself “ I’m going to get to see the twins hit”…
    3 points
  25. He's not pounds shy, he's legs shy.
    3 points
  26. 3 points
  27. The first Darin Mastroianni was quite enough!
    3 points
  28. Now pitching.... everybody's favorite malapropism waiting to happen... Buck Farmer!
    3 points
  29. He's the next Darin Mastroianni!
    3 points
  30. I have decided to leave now. We are ahead 2 - 0. I will count it as a win and hope no one ruins my delusional celebration.
    3 points
  31. As pointed out, they have graduated 2-3 legit ML players this year. Put those three back in the minors, and their system looks A LOT better. I mean, what do people expect when a team adds 3 legit MLB players from the minors, that the system is still awesome? And, if you expect that, the only way to do that is to deal major league players for lots of prospects, is that what you want? MN is currently ranked 18th by Fangraphs.....after graduating those three......and they aren't done adding prospects this deadline, I'd guess.
    3 points
  32. All of these are light and mis guided. We need starting pitching prospects not relievers and SS that can’t stick at short. Berrios is the most valuable available trade piece at the deadline. If Berrios is traded the other team is going to need to hurt big time.
    3 points
  33. The Twins need him next year and I don’t move him unless I get an overpay for a player under control. It should be more than a fair deal to motivate the Twins to make the move. Fair deals don’t move the needle. They need to find some highly motivated this year to pay a little more.
    3 points
  34. I would really not like the Twins trading Kepler. He can cover center field if necessary and has an above average bat. Solid 3.0-4.0 WAR player over a full season, cheap and under a long term contract. The Twins have control of him for 3 more years and if he continues to put up 3-4 win seasons, the Twins will be giving him at least a QO. Kepler is the kind of stable season contributor who fills out your roster and allows you to move other pieces around.
    3 points
  35. If a rebuild is the direction this is headed then the FO just needs to get as much talent in return as they can. If Buxton, Kepler, Donaldson and others are leaving they'll need high end position player prospects and not like the pitching pipeline is in poor shape.
    3 points
  36. That's a pretty crap take, frankly. Yeah, the front office didn't do enough but Michael Pineda and Kenta Maeda are not the players who tanked this season. Their point is somewhat accurate but every single name mentioned is wrong.
    3 points
  37. Agree that the Giants are not a good fit for the Twins. Or a good team to trade with based on past experience. Perhaps the Giants are getting even for the Nathan/Liriano/Bonser deal from long ago. Must disagree with one thing you have written. And that's when talking about what it would cost for their 19 year old shortstop. If the Twins are trading Berrios, he is as close to an ACE as anyone is going to find this July. So it wouldn't cost Berrios, plus someone like Rogers. Rather, if you want Berrios we are going to get your #1 prospect, plus one or two other pitchers. If you aren't willing to talk about that, hang up!
    3 points
  38. In my book termination is on the table, but not because of any individual moves. We were promised sustainable contenders, what we seem to have on the horizon is sustainable 75-game winners as a high end. Which is better than perennial 100-game losers, and requires a certain level of competence given stiff competition throughout MLB. But if we're facing a new five year plan, I'd find someone new to give the five years to. If I were deciding, how the roster and farm looks after they decide about Buxton and Berrios would shape my decision.
    3 points
  39. Voted no. A long term contract which is middle ground for Buxton's potential earnings makes no sense for the Twins and a long term contract which is at the lower end of Buxton's potential earnings (where the Twins are now) makes little sense for Buxton. Reports are saying the Twins' offer was in the $100MM neighborhood with unknown incentives that looked more like a football contract than a typical baseball contract. Gleeman and the Geek was unusually direct to the point and worth listening to on this issue today. Berrios' ask is unknown. If he wants 5 / 125MM, you give him 5 / 125MM. If he wants more than 25MM annual over 5 years or more than 22MM annually over 6+ years, you can't sign him to that because it's an overpay compared to an expected free agency market for him.
    3 points
  40. I'm unsure. If they fail to fire Baldelli, then I would change my vote to yes.
    3 points
  41. That’s insanity, no manager is worth 30 wins! We have the third worst pitching staff by runs allowed, what sorcery would these managers perform to erase the runs out pitchers allow? Maybe Roberts or Francona could have gotten 3 or 4 wins, but not 30. Heck, I know Dodgers fans who think Roberts is a poor manager and if fired, they’d be doing better. It’s all a matter of perspective...
    3 points
  42. Dear Twins FO, What exactly do you want me to still be working on down here in AAA... an OPS of 1.200? Have you seen the team you are rolling out there in the MLB? I'm pretty sure I can help. Yours Truly, Miranda
    3 points
  43. This lineup -- with no Cruz, Buxton, Kirilloff, or Arraez -- is not good. And the pitching staff is worse. No manager would have this team succeeding.
    3 points
  44. I agree with many of you that it's very hard to peg what he'd get, but I'm pretty confident of a few things: 1. Anyone who gives Buxton a contract term beyond 3 years is going to want it heavily incentivized, with a lot of outs, or with a lower AAV. Possibly all of those things. He won't get a deal longer than 3 years without at least significant protections of that nature. Again, this is how teams behave now. The free agent spending binges of years past are not the same. 2. The only way he gets anywhere close to a $20M AAV is on a 1-2 year deal with mutual options and other protections that the team will insist on in order to swing for the fences. They won't box themselves in. I don't think people are looking at the current pay rate of centerfielders in the league when they think he's getting 150 or 200M guaranteed. That's just not reasonable. If he had no history or injuries, sure. But Buxton's track record is ugly and teams are gun-shy when there are red flags. GMs know they keep their jobs, in part, by protecting the owner's pocket book from ugly contracts. On top of that, I think a lot of this fanbase is still in love with the myth of Byron Buxton. He's such a likable player and so easy to root for and it doesn't help that he fuels that for 40 games a season when he's just phenomenal, but GMs can't be starry-eyed fans. The sober take on this guy is that guarantees in his next contract are going to be few and far between unless he makes significant sacrifices in other areas of the deal.
    3 points
  45. Wow really nice interview! Thanks. I have to say I had my doubts about Contraras. When he couldn't hit anything in 2019 I thought AA would be the level he flames out at. Credit to him for turning it around and he has recaptured my attention. His numbers this year have been bordering on Rooker type numbers. The HR power is there and his OPS has been hovering around 900 for a while now. Being a good defensive outfielder he looks like he is going to need to be added to the 40 man this year. Still he has things he needs to work on as his K numbers are bit too high and walk numbers a bit too low. If he keeps that that 900 or near 900 OPS for the rest of the year he really is in that Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff territory as a hitter. To be honest I haven't watched him much just his stats but he must have a good approach to be doing as well as he is doing. He might be a better defensive outfielder than those two as well. At any rate it is nice to see another good bat develop and even nicer that it comes with good defense too! I think as a fan I don't realize just how hard it is to get to those upper levels and maintain consistency. You keep moving up against the best of the best facing failure having to work hard mentally and physically to meet those challenges and find ways to overcome them. It ain't easy and lot's of players top out at a level they can't conquer and are done for good. So these stories are good reminders of what it takes to become a MLB player.
    3 points
  46. Buxton is not a free agent and will not be a free agent at the end of this year. I think the speculation, even though it's fun, about what Buxton might command in the free agent market right now is interesting, but moot. In regard to that, if Buxton was a free agent this offseason, I can't imagine any team in baseball offering him more than 1-2 years. The only way Buxton gets that big AAV along with several years is to play a full season and produce more value in that season than he's ever done in his career. Buxton's situation makes it really hard for the Twins to extend an offer which would likely keep him. Since Buxton is virtually guaranteed of $25-30MM over the next two years between his 2022 salary and the QO he's going to receive, it makes a big impact on how low of an AAV he'll accept on an extension. Even if Buxton remains very good, but injury prone while playing 1/2 seasons from here on out, he'll still make $70MM over the next 7 years. However, Buxton putting together 2 full seasons in 2022-2023 would put him into a position to cash in hugely. I'd think he could pull in $170MM over the next 7 years on a 5 / $150MM year deal. A mid way point where I think Buxton would sign is 7 years $125MM, but if he remains injury prone or slows down, it's an albatross contract for the Twins similar to Jason Heyward's contract with the Cubs. Thus, the Twins cannot reasonably offer Buxton significantly more than the low end of Buxton's value over the next several years and Buxton can't accept what the Twins can reasonably offer.
    3 points
  47. Boy, things are truly depressing, and it's difficult to see a way out anytime soon. Sort of a ... total system failure.
    3 points
  48. Or that he wants market value money and the Twins aren't there yet
    3 points
  49. Ah, okay, that makes more sense. And no, there's no *guarantee* Buxton's value hasn't peaked but the chance his value is peaked right now is probably single-digit percentage points, a low enough risk to not be a real concern. On the other hand, I've come over to the side where I believe Buxton should be the Twins' number one target. The Twins are never going to spend in the top third of baseball; if they're going to win, they need to gamble on upside and there's no bigger gamble nor bigger upside than Byron Buxton. As fans, we often complain this team doesn't "take their shot" when competing. Betting on Buxton is the Twins taking their shot in a big way. If you get a single healthy season out of him at any point, he's Mike Trout level good, the kind of player that can be worth ten wins. And if the team gets to the postseason, there's no bigger difference-maker on the field. I say pay the man and "take your shot".
    3 points
This leaderboard is set to Chicago/GMT-05:00
×
×
  • Create New...