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    AceWrigley

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    Brock Beauchamp

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Showing content with the highest reputation on 06/16/2021 in all areas

  1. Steve: Although a rough night for Saint Paul, CR and Fort Myers, I'm pleased to report that I was able to witness the Wind Surge's 13-4 thumping of Springfield tonight at a VERY warm Riverfront Stadium in Wichita. First of all, for any fans considering making the trip to Wichita, its definitely worth the time. The ballpark is spectacular! As many might know, Riverfront Stadium was built with intention of being the Miami Marlins AAA team in 2020. Whoever designed this ballpark did a tremendous job. Not a bad seat anywhere in the park. As with most minor league teams at AA level, box seats (we sat 15 rows directly being Wind Surge dugout) were very affordable....only $15.00 each if bought in advance. Ballpark offers great variety of amenities----from food and beverage to a very nice (and affordable) team store. As for the game, you have to take into account Springfield----especially their pitching staff is very comparable to a team that got dominated by that future Cy Young winner, Chris Flexen, Anyway, Springfield, by no accident is a BAD team....now 12-24 overall. Saying that, they do have some solid prospects----namely Nolan Gorman...#3 overall prospect, who hit 3 HRs in a game last night. Came away VERY IMPRESSED with the performance of Balazovic tonight. Only criticique I'd offer is Balazovic needs to get more efficient with his command/pitch count. 4.1 IP with 8 Ks, only 1 walk and 2 singles and 0 ER allowed puts him on track, imo, for a late season call up and a strong chance to start 2022 season in Twins rotation. Although Miranda's lead off HR was nice to see, I was more impressed with his ability to drive in 2 additional runs with solid singles..on 2 strike counts...in 2 of his later ABs that produced 2 RBI. With a .315 avg and an excellent OPS of .927, I'd expect a promotion to Saint Paul should be coming for Miranda within the next month. Looking forward to seeing Game #2 tomorrow night with Cole Sands on the bump for the Surge.
    14 points
  2. Seems irresponsible on Reusse’s part to report someone might be unhappy. “Might” isn’t news. You can say that about anyone. This lapse in responsibility gets magnified when others cite Reusse’s report and soon the “might” part gets lost in the noise. Reusse knows that. This same article could have been written without citing Reusse’s empty report. I am confident there exists a number that the Twins can offer in an extension that Buxton will be happy to sign. Are the Twins willing to find that number? Would they be wise to do so? I am not certain. If Buxton leaves it will have nothing to do with happiness. It will be because the Twins weren’t willing to find that number.
    12 points
  3. Good to see that everyone is catching up to the reality that Buxton and Berrios do not want to be here and 100% will leave in free agency. It's FO malpractice not to trade before the deadline to maximize return. Again, I WANT to keep them... but often time in life your options unfortunately do not include what you want
    10 points
  4. Read on the game thread that by the 5th inning the Mariners had a 94% chance of victory, the Twins - 0%. I suppose the other 6% belonged to the probability that Mt. Rainier would erupt and cover the ballpark in volcanic flow. Soooo, an inanimate pile of rock had a greater probability of a winning outcome than the Twins. Wonder if it can pitch....
    9 points
  5. Thank you, Griffin Jax! Signed, The Bullpen, the Coaches, Teammates
    9 points
  6. I agree with Dman. There are some players that want to stay with their team even if they don’t get every penny that the free agency process generally yields. A much greater percentage of players can’t wait for free agency and there is no way they are foregoing that process. The whole pay them whatever it takes mantra is patently naïve. Just as assuming we can win a bidding war with teams that have 40, 50 or 100 percent greater revenue. Mid/small market team have to get return for players they can’t resign. We can hate ownership and the front office if it makes us feel better but denying the reality that we simply have considerably less financial resource is not a thoughtful or even logical response. We should look around the league. The Angel and Phillies who have significantly greater financial resource signed huge names and failed. They traded away assets for “known quantities”. How have they done? The Dodgers went through a period where they spent huge and traded for vets. Thar was not a complete bust but they were not serious contenders. The Whitesox traded away key (core) players and rebuilt a winner. Tampa and Oakland trade away established players for players that have not made their mark yet and they have consistently been top teams despite their limitations in free agency. Cleveland has also been inclined to trade away established players. Even Boston traded Betts while they could still get something. Verdugo is now an important part of their team. The even better recent example is Chicago. Moncada has the highest war among position players for the Whitesox. Cease and Jiminez were acquired by trade as was Giolito. The successes associated with restocking with controllable talent are everywhere. The most likely way for this team to get into serious contention is developing SPs that are low cost and will be here for several years. That's not going to happen by the start of 22. We can go "all-in" for 22 by trading for more talent and ride it out with Buxton and Berrios. The odds of success are quite low IMO and that strategy leaves you in significantly worse shape after 2022. If we can get a substantial return that impacts 2023 and several years after we are likely to be significantly better for several years. Basically investing one year for a significantly better team over the next several years is a preferable strategy for me.
    8 points
  7. Under the banner of "expectations versus results" - I'll go off the board and take Kenta Maeda. Went from Cy Young to just Sigh Yes is the poll answer.
    7 points
  8. Tampa would trade him. 100%.
    6 points
  9. So: Fried Liver Expired Mayonaisse Undercooked Brussels Sprouts, or Ordering a Sundae and Getting Frozen Yogurt? Ummm....
    6 points
  10. It’s disappointing that this is the direction the Twins are heading. It’s going to be a long time until we stumble upon another game changing talent like Buxton. It’s Falvey and Levine’s call whether they want to tear things down. If they do, my interest level in this team will drop significantly. P.S. I never, ever want to hear about an extended contention window again. Should have pushed in every chip we had in 2019.
    6 points
  11. I get that Jax "saved" the bullpen, but I'm not inclined to think there's much of anything praise worthy about 93 pitches over 4 innings, allowing 8 baserunners and 4 runs. He wasn't much different than Happ.
    6 points
  12. Had to check the IDK button. My knee jerk rx is both should be gone but I have a few reasons to give them more rope: 1. 2020 and part of 2021 was a lost time for the minor leagues, so they've realistically had only about 3 full seasons to develop draft picks. 2. They have delivered 3 playoff teams in their almost 5 years. How much of this success is due to their savvy pickups like Odo, Maeda,, Cruz and Pineda is subject to question but still, those were big contributions to these 3 playoff berths. 3. They have modernized this moribund organization with new coaches, measurement tools, and new age techniques. 4. The last 3 years, incl. this one, has been a roller coaster ride, fraught with ups and downs caused by a juiced ball, Covid shortened season, significant injuries. We really still do not know what this team is made of. With that said, the leash should be short. Give them about 10 more months(an offseason to retool and 2 months into next year's schedule, to see if the team has returned to at least respectability). But here are the things I think they must accomplish to restore faith in their abilities: 1. Fire Baldy now. We need to find out if a new manager, one who is old school, a stickler for fundamentals, hard work and leadership skills, can set this ship on a right path. So long as Rocco stays in charge, we do not know how much his ineptitude and lack of leadership is part of the problem. 2. Ownership and the FO must commit to resigning Buxton and Berrios, the only two players who play at all star levels. Put simply, there is no way this team can get back in contention next year without them. Pohlad has to give the go ahead for large salary increases not only for these two, but also in FA. There are a boatload of all star FA SSs available this offseason. Open up the pocketbook and sign one. We have no top SS prospect ready to step in to this critical position. If Lewis ever develops, he can play OF. 3. Falvine is good at dumping veterans at the trade deadline. Let's see him take some trade risks this year by trading from our few strengths. With Garver/Jeffers we have a surplus at the catching position. Garver should bring back a near major league ready prospect. Ditto with Polanco/Arraez. Expecting Arraez to be a good utility player and still maintain his elite batting skills was a fools errand. Neither is capable of playing SS. Trade the one who brings the best prospect(s). We'll still have an above average 2B for a few years. Trading Cruz is a must, but doubtful how much top grade talent he could bring. 4. Even assuming Berrios is retained for 2022 and Maeda returns to being a serviceable #3 starter(he is not the ace we saw last year), the Twins need to spend big on a FA starter or resign Pineda. Without a solid front of the rotation this team will flounder again next year. If one current Twins prospect progresses enough to fill the #4 spot, that in itself would be a bonus. Expecting any more is a fool's errand. 5. Bring the rooks up now, particularly for the bullpen. Now is the time to see what they have, even if they're rushed a bit. Moran and Cano are two we need to see. If these two flop, then the FO must sign at least two closer-types for next year.And bring up the best rotation arm in the next 30 days. We have a few highly touted guys in Duran, Balazovic, Winder. Let at least one compete with Ober by midseason to see if we have a keeper. The result will dictate how agressive this team should be in the offseason.
    5 points
  13. If we use ZiPS preseason projections as a proxy for expectations, Brock's list is still pretty accurate although Maeda would be up there. Here's a table of current 2021 fWAR totals, compared to their preseason projected ZiPS WAR (prorated to their current number of innings): Pitcher Actual fWAR ZiPS fWAR Difference Randy Dobnak -0.5 0.38 -0.88 Matt Shoemaker -0.4 0.47 -0.87 J.A. Happ 0.2 0.91 -0.71 Kenta Maeda 0.3 0.97 -0.67 Alex Colome -0.4 0.21 -0.61 Michael Pineda 0.5 0.87 -0.37 Tyler Duffey 0 0.24 -0.24 Derek Law -0.2 0.03 -0.23 Jorge Alcala -0.2 0.00 -0.20 Jose Berrios 1.3 1.47 -0.17 Juan Minaya -0.1 0.00 -0.10 Hansel Robles 0.1 0.16 -0.06 Shaun Anderson 0 0.04 -0.04 Devin Smeltzer 0 0.03 -0.03 Lewis Thorpe 0.2 0.06 0.14 Cody Stashak 0.2 0.05 0.15 Caleb Thielbar 0.3 0.11 0.19 Taylor Rogers 0.8 0.45 0.35 TOTAL 2.1 6.47 -4.37 Of course, WAR is a counting stat and it's going to have a higher scale for starters than relievers, so I think it's far to rank Colomé as worse than Maeda. On the flip side, Rogers has been excellent, and Berrios has been as advertised without missing any starts. (And Stashak has a massive ERA-FIP difference!)
    5 points
  14. Totally agree in "theory" with this sentiment - unfortunately, practically applying this principle may be impossible. Examples above in Major League Ready's post. I'd put Buxton right there with the Betts example. Likely this won't play out until over the winter is my guess, unless someone steps up and blows our mind with an offer in July. I would think Falvey waits it out. This would be a franchise make or break type of trade. I'd move heaven and earth to attempt a re-sign. This is a trade that costs the FO his job in 2 years if he blows it.
    5 points
  15. Varland must be close to trip to Iowa. He's had one bad outing, otherwise he's been brilliant.
    5 points
  16. The Twins have more in common with Tampa than NY or LA so I don't see them extending either player unless said player is willing to do a team friendly deal. They both are in their prime years and could be All Star players for the next four years or so. I don't begrudge them trying to make as much as they can in the open market. They have worked their whole lives for their one big payday opportunity and should work to get as much as they can. That being said if the Twins cannot extend them then they need to get the most value they can from each player. If they get the right kind of players back this doesn't have to be a complete tear down rebuild. They are going to need a couple of pitchers like Balazovich, Winder, Sands, Canterino to work out and hopefully they get a good pitcher in return for Berrios or Buxton. They also should be able to get a starter in FA and have plenty of 5th starter guys in the system right now. They have Larnach and Kirilloff establishing themselves along with Rortvedt, Jeffers and maybe Gordon getting there. They have Arraez and Polanco for four more years and Lewis, Palacios and Javier are in the wings for SS. I don't think the cupboard is bare after they trade Buxton and Berrios. Pitching is obviously the linch pin to them not being bad for a long period of time again and it is hard to predict if the guys they have will work out or not. It also seems to take time for young pitchers to adjust to MLB so there is plenty of risk but again if they can just find two guys that can be mid to top of the rotation guys I think they will be in good shape. While I know Buxton and Berrios are likely our two best players if the FO strikes the right deal they can still come out OK.
    5 points
  17. How can Kirilloff have the 2nd worst WPA for the Twins when he had 2 of their 4 hits in a 10-0 blowout? Is this an example of those wonderful advanced stats showing how meaningful they are again? Like Happ and Jax each struck out more than a batter per inning in their outings. Look at where that got them...
    5 points
  18. You forgot the Mayo Clinic All Stars!
    5 points
  19. Joshdonaldson has a first name?
    4 points
  20. They literally signed Donaldson and Simmons.... Two players whose value is tied a good bit to their defense. It might not be working as we hoped, but that's part of why they are here. They moved polanco off short for a reason. Why do you think defense doesn't matter to them?
    4 points
  21. While Shoemaker has objectively been a worse pitcher, I'm more disappointed in Happ. He should have been a pretty reliable 4/5 and being paid moderately well for it. Instead, we got:
    4 points
  22. If players keep dropping like flies to injury, he should have ample opportunity. Donaldson being out for a month with a calf is a good bet over the next season and a half. Add in Arraez' knee, Polanco's ankle and Gordon's belly, and I'm pretty sure he'll get a chance.
    4 points
  23. I'm not sure "Game Recap" is really appropriate for nights like this. "Massacre Recap" might better fit the occasion with maybe an FCC type rating to protect the more innocent of fans.
    4 points
  24. Any self-respecting team does NOT trade Byron Buxton. He is worth more as a part time player than most full time players, and all players on this year's Twins. I'm sorry if you don't see it, but he is the straw that stirs the drink. When he is in the lineup he impacts a team more than any player in baseball outside of the juniors (Guerrero and Tatis), Trout, Acuna and Soto. Sign him to a contract and have a plan for when he is unable to play. I should add Betts in there.
    4 points
  25. Yes is always the answer
    4 points
  26. It is almost mesmerizing to watch a catastrophe up close. Not pleasing, not fun, but hard to look away. I could not even remember who our pitchers were last year - I had to look it up because I can not understand how our team has fallen so fast. Dobnak, Hill, Smeltzer, and Odorizzi with Pineda, Berrios and Maeda. Maeda's pitching has fallen off a cliff. Pineda, as usual, has ailments impact his number of starts. Dobnak had his pumpkin stolen, Smeltzer is shut down for arm issues. Odorizzi is 1 - 3 5.68. So what gives? Hill was in 8 games and did well, now he is with Tampa Bay and 5 - 2 3.38. I can only see Berrios and Maeda back next year. Then what? Griffen Jax has three terrible performances, why does anyone want to see him start? The BP had Romo who has a 5.56 ERA in 25 games, Tyler Clippard who is out for the year, Trevor May who is 2 - 2 with a 4.57 era, and Matt Wisler who is 1 - 2 5.48. Look at those statistics - none of them could help us. Although they are better than what we have in Colome, Robles, and the revolving group of cast offs. Who do we keep for next year beyond Rogers and Alcala? None? And do we miss Marwin Gonzales? I don't think so. Do we miss Eddie Rosario - I do think so, but I don't want to start an Eddie storyline, but he and Buxton gave us some energy, the kind we signed Donaldson for - its just that Josh gives us anger energy and it isn't working. Has Simmons saved the IF? Who do we trade? Who do we DFA? I would suggest that using Happ and Shoemaker to showcase them for a trade is a waste of time.
    4 points
  27. IDK, There are other contending teams in need of OF help. Padres, Giants, Cubs, Brewers, damn near any team not named The Dodgers. The cost in money to Buxton is low. Any contender would be happy to have Buxton
    4 points
  28. By all means, if he is unhappy here and will not sign a new deal, trade him to the highest bidder
    4 points
  29. Mr. Ober has this. No need to watch. Mr. Kirilloff will clean up, as he is in the position to do so. I keep wanting to give a rousing welcome back to Mr. Buxton, but alas, it was not to be. However i can still do so for Mr.Arraez! Welcome back Mr. Arraez, and may your bat meet the ball with authority, and avoid others' gloves. Contrariwise may the ball find your glove quickly and happily. Alas, today i am not clever. I think on the whole, the worse my intro writinggoes, the more likely the win. (April was just cruel to me... Teaching me to respect Tom Stoppard's R&G are dead) Well have at it! I shall listen to the game, and check the thread as i may, but not much. Take care of this game for me! Minnesota: 0. Bailey Ober (R) P 1. Jorge Polanco (S) 2B 2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B 3. Nelson Cruz (R) DH 4. Alex Kirilloff (L) RF 5. Ryan Jeffers (R) C 6. Miguel Sano (R) 1B 7. Luis Arraez (L) LF 8. A. Simmons (R) SS 9. Gilberto Celestino (R) CF Seattle: 0. J. Sheffield (L) P 1. J.P. Crawford (L) SS 2. Jake Fraley (L) LF 3. Mitch Haniger (R) DH 4. Kyle Seager (L) 3B 5. Ty France (R) 1B 6. Jake Bauers (L) RF 7. Shed Long Jr. (L) 2B 8. T. Trammell (L) CF 9. Jose Godoy (L) C
    3 points
  30. Ober confuses me. TREMENDOUS numbers and peripherals for his career but injuries hold him back. He misses ALL of 2020 in regard to the secondary site and the instructional league but works hard on his own to find and refine a delivery that maximizes his delivery and prevents injury and soreness the next day. Suddenly he's in the 90's with control and movement on his stuff and looks like the best young pitcher we've seen in a couple years. I know it's SSS, but I haven't seen anything yet to tell me this kid isn't an actual ML SP option. I honestly think this kid may be a keeper. But other than protecting his arm for the duration of the season, he should have pitched another inning, even with a day off tomorrow.
    3 points
  31. Wonder what the Ober/Unber is for this game.
    3 points
  32. So, the other night, Mrs Chief and I were lying on bed, and the neighbors dog was just making it impossible to go to sleep. Just constant barking. Finally Mrs Chief looked at me and said "that's it. I've had enough of this." She got out of bed, threw on her note coat, and stormed off out of the bedroom. And down the stairs. I heard her open the door...but the dog never stopped barking. In fact, if anything, it got louder. Finally Mrs Chief came back and got into bed. "Honey," I said gently "I can still hear the dog." "I moved him to our backyard," she said with more than little satisfaction. "Let's see how THEY like it."
    3 points
  33. The next wave is already here IMO. Larnach and Kirilloff look like keepers. Arraez and Jeffers under pre-arb rates, Polanco and Kepler signed beyond 2023 at reasonable rates, Garver at arb-1 status next year. The offense is pretty young, and who knows, maybe Miranda and Lewis find their way up to MLB as reinforcements. I think this winter they’ll need to decide between Polanco and Arraez to man 2B full time and flip the other. The big challenge obviously is the pitching staff. I have no answer for that unit.
    3 points
  34. I don't agree that signing two bad starters to fill out a pitching staff on a likely contending team is a solid thought process.
    3 points
  35. How does a stat drive one away from the game? Like, I literally cannot understand this. Don't like a stat, don't pay attention to it. How does any stat make the game unwatchable?
    3 points
  36. While I generally agree with your conclusions, I want to point out something about your posts like this..... You always point to the teams that spent big and failed, never the teams that spent and succeeded. You always point to the teams that traded off their best players and succeeded, and never the ones that failed (Pittsburgh being a good example). I'd like your analysis a lot more if it didn't seem so cherry picked, and, imo, unwilling to acknowledge that what really matters is being right about who you acquire, and a team's ability to develop them. This is the failure of the last GM, and while it is too early to be sure about this FO.....there are very few wins to show for their time here (in terms of long term assets developed). Your plan to re-tool for 2023 relies very heavily on 2-3 of the guys in the minors right now turning out to be good to very good starting pitchers. So far, they've developed zero. I'm not confident.
    3 points
  37. If he is sore but still smacking home runs and banging out triples as he has in St. Paul, he's probably good to go. Typically when a veteran who is still performing at a high level retires, he talks about how he is done being sore all summer. It's not about no longer being able to perform, it's about being tired of always being sore. Heck, when Radke retired, the story at the time was he could not lift his arm over his head or pick anything up with his pitching hand on non-pitching days. Now that's sore. I imagine everyone on this team is sore by this time in the year. Hopefully this decision is being made by a Twins doctor and not Baldelli. And hopefully if Buxton doesn't like the answer, he has searched out a second opinion as he is allowed under the CBA.
    3 points
  38. WPA is not very useful. If kirilloffs WPA wasn't good yesterday what does it say about the many guys that went over yesterday. These "newly invented" stats the past few years are a joke. It among so many other things us what is driving true baseball fans away from the game. MLB is becoming increasingly unwatchable.
    3 points
  39. Shoemaker is the worst statistically. But he wasn’t signed to be a mid rotation starter like Happ, or a high leverage late inning arm like Colomé. My vote is Colomé. He was supposed to be the replacement for Trevor May. We paid him $5 million and he’s been a mop up guy since the middle of May. Total disaster.
    3 points
  40. Watched Balazovic for the first few innings. Just has the look of a top of the line MLB starter. Will take another year, but should join the Twins mid-season 2022. Expect there will be lots of openings next year. Also really liked what I saw of Miranda. I guess Javier was due for an 0 for after a nice string of games. Hopefully, he will get back on the hitting track tonight so his good streak won't return to the sub .200 we have seen the last few years. After reading questions here about the 2019 draft and Fort Myers pitching, took a look at their roster while watching the game last night. I think I counted 7 pitchers on their roster who were drafted in 2019. Or was it 9?
    3 points
  41. Awesome that you got to see the game! It is definitely a trip I'd like to make in the future. Miranda has definitely taken steps forward that you want to see this year (plate discipline), and the results are following. He will definitely get a bump soon keeping this up.
    3 points
  42. You don't have to worry about seeing him very often unless you run the rehab unit.
    3 points
  43. This game was over after one pitch from the Twins? That's just so symbolic of this season. I had to look up the definition of talismanic: relating to or of the nature of a talisman or talismans. "symbolism can be attached to talismanic objects" representing and inspiring a particular group. "they are without their talismanic captain" We can keep learning even during this bleak 2021 Twins season.
    3 points
  44. It is fair to say that Buxton and Berrios want full market value for their services. The contracts that they get as free agents might be their only large payday. As for a role model for their desire to earn a big pile of money while they can, look no further than the ownership. The "they hate it here" statements are fantasies of a fan base that acts like a jilted lover.
    3 points
  45. wowzers. that was...entertaining. wild pitches, home runs, bad pick offs to first, more home runs. it's astounding. i managed to watch the whole thing but wonder how many more can go like this. it's hard to keep watching this car crash.
    3 points
  46. I am the only one foolish enough to watch this crappy game? Soon, there will be more discussion about trades than the games themselves.
    3 points
  47. So excited that the Twins are building something everyone wants to be a part of. Sigh
    3 points
  48. I'd really rather trade Buxton to the NL so I don't have to see him very often. I certainly wouldn't ship him off to the Yankees!
    3 points
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