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  1. Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark

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  2. Nick Nelson

    Nick Nelson

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  3. Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs

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  4. Richard Swerdlick

    Richard Swerdlick

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Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/22/2021 in all areas

  1. Maeda has pitched 25 times in the playoffs and has a 2.87 ERA. Jack Morris had a 3.80 career ERA in the playoffs. Just saying.
    12 points
  2. Canterino sitting 97-98 with his fastball should move him up this list, probably to #3.
    8 points
  3. I don't know. The 2011 team had serious issues with Morneau and Nathan going into the season (and Mauer too), plus the wildcard Nishioka in the lineup. I don't really see comparables on the 2021 club right now, even if the team could potentially under-perform expectations. Just for fun, I went back and looked at our 2011 spring training stats. Check out the spring ERAs for this rotation: Baker 2.66 Blackburn 1.73 Duensing 2.49 Pavano 2.16 Liriano 4.82 (but the best K numbers) Slowey 1.69
    4 points
  4. I am with you on Shoemaker. If Dobnak continues to look this good, I think he gets the 5th spot and Shoemaker works out of the BP. Let's hope that's the way it goes because the long-term implications are better if Dobnak is too good to keep out of the rotation.
    4 points
  5. St. Paul should have a great pitching staff.
    4 points
  6. Right now I'd rate The Dobnak as our #5 starter. Smeltzer of course is now in the minors. Looking forward to getting a look at some young arms this summer. Can't wait for the season to start.
    4 points
  7. Squirrel

    .624 OPS Spring

    I’ll start worrying toward the end of April.
    4 points
  8. What happens after you try to pick off the runner twice? Can they now take a 45 foot lead, as they just have to beat the pitcher back to 1st? And what if there are runners at 1st and 3rd? Does a throw to 3rd and then to 1st count as 1 or 2 pick offs? And does include the catcher?
    4 points
  9. In which of the last few seasons would you say the Twins had a better and deeper rotation than this one? You might say last year, with the hindsight of knowing Maeda would break out, but then you'd also have the hindsight of knowing Odo would be completely unavailable. Also ,at no point in my recollection have they had this many high-caliber pitching prospects on the doorstep, which is a key part of that assertion.
    3 points
  10. Thanks Nick. Informative thoughtful articles in this series. I really appreciate Twins Daily, especially since I live in North Carolina and we get very little coverage of the Twins here. Plus I can write my 2 cents worth here and I feel comfortable doing it, even if we sometimes agree to disagree. This is really a way this fan of this franchise for the last 66 years, can keep up with this team in a unique and informative way, have thoughtful discussions about the Twins and baseball. I just want to say thank you to the owners, moderators, writers, contributors and the fans. You are all the best.
    3 points
  11. Kaat, Perry Pascual, Grant, Boswell - 1965. Merritt number 6.
    3 points
  12. Dobbs could step in on a moment's notice should a guy get injured or just fail to perform. He's a horse that eats innings. You can't just leave him the the barn munching hay. He belongs out in the field, eating innings. Don't feel right, otherwise.
    3 points
  13. Ugh... a bit like comparing Oranges to Orangutans, No? Where to start, where to start... Well Maeda has 4 post season starts where he appears to have averaged 3.8 innings. His other 20-ish so appearances were in relief where he averaged around 1 inning an appearance. Jack Morris had 5 complete games in the playoffs, 3 coming in the WS, one of which happens to be the greatest post season start ever. Though fantastic, his stats are a bit diluted by a rough post season in his age 37 year with Toronto. Jack Morris also pitched in the AL his whole career with DHs I am pumped we have Maeda and think he can elevate. Nick, you along with Parker, are my favorite TD writers. But with all due respect, comparing Jack Morris with Maeda...just no
    3 points
  14. nicksaviking

    .624 OPS Spring

    Since I’ve learned the hard way that great spring training stats rarely correlate to regular season stats, I have to assume the opposite is also true. Oh Ryan LaMarre, what could have been..... It’s been awhile so forgive me if I’ve forgotten it, but I’m pretty sure we are still waiting to see Kirby Puckett’s first career Spring Training hit. I believe every year, the last week of March was reserved for Minnesota sports writers to declare that his career appeared over.
    3 points
  15. Azviking101

    .624 OPS Spring

    Anyone else worried about this lack of hits so far in spring? Dead last in team OPS. Spring is spring but .624 is putrid. Most starts have averages in the .100s In 2019 before the record season they had a .832 OPS. Everything about this offense went to the toilet after Rowson left. I can’t help but be really worried about the offense this year. Donaldson and Cruz will be fine, but guys like Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Sano, really worry me.
    2 points
  16. I will take Jack - I like Maeda so this is not one or the other, but Jack won a lot of games with determination and I really enjoyed him. Durability counts a lot for us old timers.
    2 points
  17. Not that he's been particularly great over his career, but Pineda's postseason absence hasn't had much to do with his performance. Here are the only times his teams made the postseason: 2015 - Yankees lost the wild card game. Tanaka started and Pineda wasn't on the roster for that game, but he likely would have been in their 4-man rotation had they advanced. 2017 - Pineda had TJ surgery midseason, thus was unavailable when the Yankees made the playoffs 2019 - suspended, ineligible 2020 - 3rd starter on a team eliminated after just 2 games
    2 points
  18. Thanks for a great article, Nick, and a lively discussion. I continue to wonder why so many continue to clamor for the Twins to go out and get an ACE. In my opinion, that's exactly what they did a year ago. If Maeda isn't an ACE, well then there ain't more than one in the American League. Love the top two and depth of this starting rotation. And after coming off a season that was only 60 games long, depth is gonna be huge this year, HUGE. So I am comfortable with the staff going into the season. For that reason I assume we are going to need at least eight starters during the season, not including a few starts by callups for double headers. Will also agree with the above comments regarding Dobber, who I believe will not be the Twins #5 starter. Why, because he is gonna be their #3 or #4 best starter.
    2 points
  19. I thought all along Odorizzi would be back. I'm surprised he's not. Why he's not is moot at this point. For this ONE YEAR that is 2021, reflective of Happ's age, I believe any 2 of 3 of Pineda, Happ and Oddo are the same quality of pitcher. So I'm good with 3-4 and love our top 2. Shoemaker was a smart sign. He could be about the best #5 SP in the league if healthy enough for 22/23 starts. If I could be guaranteed he'd be available for 14 and just be his normal career self, I'd still be happy. Because by the end of the season you don't only have Donnak and Thorpe, but you've got at least a couple more arms that are probably ready to make their debuts.
    2 points
  20. One team using the DH while the other team sends the pitcher up to bat is fun. I kind of like how the league is going farther with the "rules don't matter" approach this spring training.
    2 points
  21. Halsey Hall

    .624 OPS Spring

    Rowson loss was the biggest loss in years. I said that last year, and the playoffs showed it. Offer the job to Dave Kiriloff.
    2 points
  22. Nick, I think you are being a little harsh on Morris here. He was brilliant in both the 1984 and 1991 postseasons; he was mediocre in 1987 but it was only 1 start. He was dismal in 1992, but he was also 37 years old and at the very end of his line as an effective MLB pitcher -- something not yet included in Maeda's career numbers. Through 1987, his age-32 season (same as Maeda in 2020), Morris had a 3.00 postseason ERA (albeit in only 4 starts). Through 1991, that went down further to 2.60. It was only the 1992 postseason that drags Morris' career postseason numbers down, and not coincidentally he was completely done as an effective MLB pitcher after that point. Maeda has also accumulated most of his postseason innings out of the bullpen so far, which still count of course but that furthers the oranges-to-orangutans nature of the comparison. Through age 32, Maeda has 4 career postseason starts just like Morris did, but with a 4.60 ERA in them.
    2 points
  23. Bickle19

    .624 OPS Spring

    Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight.
    2 points
  24. There would be no real cost to taking back Wells and Baddoo -- just $50k each (after we received $100k each for them from Baltimore and Detroit, respectively), and neither would have to go on the Twins 40-man roster this season. Of course, they'd also have to clear waivers (with Rule 5 restrictions attached) before the Twins could get them back.
    2 points
  25. That is a great article by Dan Hayes on the Athletic. Talks about the process and how it doesn't happen overnight. Some good nuggets on Winder and Canterrino as well. I love our staff and the depth behind it. Dobnak is missing bats like Kershaw this spring! Happ is more reliable than Odo. A full year if Pineda and hoping for a breakout year from Jose. Personally I like Shoemaker as a 2-3 innings guy, but time will tell.
    2 points
  26. I confess to exaggerating for the purpose of making my point. The type of trade you suggest would almost certainly make the Twins better but it would almost certainly make the other team worse. Therefore the other team's GM would not make such a trade, especially if the player(s) the Twins offer are likely to become available via waivers or Rule 5 anyway.
    2 points
  27. It's hard to ignore how well Rooker and Garlick have played this spring, and it's also hard to ignore how poor Kepler has looked. I give pitchers a lot of slack in spring training because they're testing new things out and ramping up, but position players have tons of time to get extra batting practice in and should at least be hitting close to how they will be in the regular season. Also its not only that Kepler is slashing .069/.069/.069 in 27 spring at bats, but this is also after Kepler experienced a substantial decline in offensive production last year. If the Twins want the best team on the field at the beginning of the season, I truly believe Garlick would be the better choice right now. I know people are really attached to Kepler for some reason, but at the end of the day it's about who will give the Twins the best results.
    2 points
  28. puckstopper1

    .624 OPS Spring

    So why is it that people who say Spring Training hitting stats don't count are also gushing over fantastic Spring Training pitching numbers? Are not the two connected?
    2 points
  29. The article linked by the OP answers some of the questions being raised here regarding pickoffs, infield dirt, and the reasoning behind making the bases larger. The scientifically minded will appreciate that they are implementing each of these rules (except the two-pickoff rule) in one league classification at a time. Not that there is a lot of interplay between rule changes, but the consequences will be easier to identify.
    2 points
  30. Does the rule change say that infielders must touch the infield or touch the dirt? There is a difference. If it says touch the dirt, then infielders can't play on the grass when anticipating a bunt. That is a different outcome than the rule intends (I think).
    2 points
  31. My intent isn't to debate who's essential and who's not. I'm just wondering how you expect to flip the guys you list for meaningfully more "essential" players. I think you admit it yourself when you doubt that Kirilloff -- arguably the most valuable player on your list -- you doubt that even he could be the centerpiece of a Castillo trade -- so why are you criticizing the Twins over it? And the Twins did ship out our 5th OF (Wade) for what we hope becomes our 5th reliever, but there are limits to what you can achieve with deals like that. As for Musgrove, sure it may have been nice to get him, but out of the 28 teams who failed to acquire Musgrove, where do you think the Twins rank in terms of SP need? Our whole starting staff has had better ERAs than Musgrove over each of the last two seasons! Musgrove is an interesting breakout candidate for sure, but despite coming from the Pirates, it's doubtful that he's going to turn into a stud like Cole -- maybe more like Odorizzi upside? And if no other team was willing to give the Pirates a prospect close to Larnach (if that's what the Pirates were after), maybe the Twins were right to not give them that either. FWIW, the top guy the Pirates got back is a CF prospect valued similarly to Celestino at baseballtradevalues.com -- and I'm not sure it's clear that the Pirates would have preferred Celestino and a Twins package (Celestino might be the safer bet but the rebuilding Pirates may prefer to take on more risk for potentially more upside). And Odorizzi and Maeda show that the Twins aren't afraid to make these kind of deals, and they've done pretty well in them, so I'm just not sure of the criticism, at this point. Especially in a thread about Baddoo and Wells.
    2 points
  32. Why waste his service time if the guy is in a slump or needs a little time you have other options who are playing really well. We are only a week out from opening day start him in AAA/alternate site and let Rooker and or Garlick platoon with Cave
    1 point
  33. You're probably right. I respect Morris' career but I think he's generally pretty overrated, and I'm so drained on hearing him always invoked as a "grass-is-greener" playoff rotation lament. He had great moments in the postseason, including maybe the greatest moment, but he was hardly infallible. The nature of the game was so different then compared to now, it feels completely pointless to bring his name up. Managers don't use starters in that same way, and are finding plenty of success anyway. Clayton Kershaw & Walker Buehler collectively pitched past the 6th inning once in 10 playoff starts last year. Kevin Cash routinely pulled his starters after a couple turns through the lineup. In the context of baseball as it is now, Maeda has been extremely effective in the playoffs. And that's what matters.
    1 point
  34. Experimenting is the easy part. Collecting and analyzing the data will be more difficult. Implementing any changes based on the analysis will be the most difficult and will require quite a bit of PR. Change of any kind is an anathema for many. I applaud MLB for giving it a try.
    1 point
  35. From the article: This rule will limit pitchers to just two “step offs” or pickoff attempts per plate appearance. On the third attempt, if the runner is not thrown out, the move is ruled a balk and any runners are automatically awarded the next base. So to answer your questions: No, the runner couldn't take a crazy lead after two throws, as the pitcher could still throw over a third time -- the defense would just have to record an out on the play or it would result in a balk. It's per plate appearance, so each throw counts toward the limit, even if the throws go to different bases. And this is specifically pitcher pick-off throws -- catcher pick-off attempts would not be affected.
    1 point
  36. ashbury

    The 5 Rule Draft

    When I think of 5-for-1 trades and the like, one team is trading away a star player because of financial reasons - the player has become too expensive for whatever reason. In return, they generally get 1) an elite prospect, 2) a MLB-ready player to take the star's place on the roster, and 3) a few high-upside but very unproven prospects in the low minors. A few scrub players may be added to the trade, to address roster openings caused by the main parts of the trade. In your terminology, there is just one "inferior" player (guy #2) included in the package, the rest are unproven. Can you provide examples of trades along the lines you describe, where a team separates the wheat from the chaff and bundles the chaff for something worthwhile?
    1 point
  37. Well, I think this premise is false. I think the Twins want the roster to be the collection of players they feel will win the most regular season games.
    1 point
  38. Happ is in the rotation if he’s healthy and likely the same for Shoemaker. It’s a bad idea to discard veteran starters before Opening Day. You’re going to need starters 6-8 soon enough and it only reduces depth to drop even an ineffective veteran before a real pitch is thrown. Especially in this weird hangover season where so many of your 6-9 depth guys barely got in any work last season. It’s hard to predict what will happen if you need to lean on a Lewis Thorpe for 120 innings after the cluster**** of 2020.
    1 point
  39. Given the way catchers are used, I'd grade them in a pair, with Garver/Jeffers vs. Grandal/LuCroy, which narrows any gap considerably.
    1 point
  40. I think 3B is close. If healthy all year, probably Donaldson, but that's not a given either. Moncada is good. I think SS goes to Anderson fairly handily. I think CF is really close, but remember Robert won the Gold Glove, even with Buxton eligible. Again, if healthy, I think Buxton is the guy but it's close. I wonder when Andrew Vaughn will take over as the DH for the White Sox.
    1 point
  41. Just about every team cut payroll this year. Twins are still in middle of league in spending. We are spending almost 70 mil more than Tampa, and Tampa is expected to be fighting for playoffs, just like us. Spending big does not mean you will win, you need to spend right. If you can find a good arm for cheaper why not do it?
    1 point
  42. Upon further review, this is probably of very little significance. On an infield ground ball the batter-runner will get to first base slightly faster. However, the first baseman will also be slightly closer to the infielder making the throw. The two factors probably essentially cancel each other. Assuming that the point in time at which the throw from the infielder is made would not change the larger base may be a slight advantage for the fielding team because a thrown ball travels much faster than a running human.
    1 point
  43. Dman

    .624 OPS Spring

    The Twins appear to be all about hard hit rate which somewhat correlates to the harder a player hits the ball the greater the OPS. I am starting to have my doubts about that theory though because when players sell out for power they tend to hit everything pull side and the shift can kill them as they generally only use half the field. Also with the ball being more dead you lose the HR's that power those hard hit rate OPS stats. Honestly I think it would be beneficial for guys to try and go Opo more often. If they don't and can't hit HR's I think it is going to be a long year for our hitters. Hopefully the Twins adjust and bats get better.
    1 point
  44. Rosterman

    The 5 Rule Draft

    If both were offered back to the Twins in the next week, would you take them back? What are the chances that either would get a call to the majors this year? And would they be bonifide candidates to be added to the 40-man in 2022. Of course, both should be taken back, given a chance to shine, and at the very very least would be tradebait add-ons, especially Baddoo. If Buxton is signed longterm, it changes the picture for many a current outfield prospect in the system.
    1 point
  45. Bigger bases. Why? Infielder positioning rules. If they are going to do that why not put 7 x marks on the field and say this is where you must be for all position players If they do not want pickoff moves insist the runner has to be standing on the base at the start of the pitch
    1 point
  46. The Twins beat the likes of Castillo, Bieber, Giolito, and Darvish. They also struggled Mightily against trash SPs like Tarik Skubal. When you look at that, you'll notice that quality of the SP had negligible effect on how the offense did. They were inconsistent as hell all season long, and quality of the SP had no noticeable effect on this offense. Therefore, the argument that this offense only beats trash SPs and struggles mightily against Aces falls completely flat. They've looked flat all ST this year, including against AA/AAA pitchers. Maybe is our offense just...IDK...terrible? IDK...until this offense plays a playoff game where the hitters (and the manager) don't have their heads up their @$$es I wouldn't worry so much about the pitching.
    1 point
  47. I thought we were at $128-$131M... I think some projections included some of Maeda's incentives, however.
    1 point
  48. Enlarging the bases from 15 X 15 to 18 X 18 - Probably OK, but I need to know more about the placement of the bases. The baseball diamond is a 90' x 90' square. Home plate is entirely inside this square with the point of the plate nearest the catcher being the corner of the square. First and third bases are similarly situated, with the base fitting into the corner of the square, the entire base being inside the square. The center of second base is located at the other corner of the square, resulting in one-quarter of second base being inside the square and three-quarters of the base being outside the square. If this placement is used with the larger bases that means that first base and third base will be three inches closer to home plate. That has significant implications, especially at first base. Requiring infielders to be stationed touching the infield when the ball is pitched - no. Requiring pitchers to step off the rubber when making a pick-off throw - lefthanded pitchers will have probably their most important tool of holding runners taken away from them. Is that good or bad? I don't know. Limiting pickoff attempts to 2 per plate appearance - no. Employing 15-second pitch timer - yes, if you must, but only with the bases empty and only if there is a similar timer for batters to get in the batter's box. Using an automated balls and strikes system - yes, yes, yes.
    1 point
  49. Rosterman

    The 5 Rule Draft

    I'm actually looking at the Twins current 40-man, and there isn't a lot of player movement if you wanted to add a body. Who do you subtract in the grand scheme of things. Gordon? Smeltzer? If Thielbar stunk up the bullpen, easy cut. But he is holding his own. Garlick and Blankenhorn? Chalmers, Colina and Ober - all higher than Wells in the pecking order. During the off-season you do keep a couple of potential clunkers on the 40-man because you may have to jettison someone for a free-agent signing (which the Twins did, or a trade). But, man, the 40-man is tight. Happily ALL the names would be a potential call-up if the need arose. (Otherwise, why have them on the roster, or in the case of Babboo you would be carrying him (like Celestino) for a couple of seasons with no call-up because you think he is THE ONE.
    1 point
  50. Doctor Gast

    The 5 Rule Draft

    To answer my own question, because we picked him off waivers and we wanted to protect him
    1 point
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