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    twinkiesfan11

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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/21/2020 in all areas

  1. The point is to not end up like the Red Sox, Cubs or Tigers as recent examples. Yes the Cubs and Red Sox won WS titles but the lasting effect of emptying their farm systems and blowing wads of money on expensive aging free agents and trade acquisitions catches up eventually. A combination of a barren farm system and zero payroll flexibility is what leads to prolonged rebuilding periods which is no fun for anyone. I’d much rather see the Twins remain competitive, nimble enough to make a big move when it counts but always with an eye to the future. Much more along the lines of the Cardinals for example. I could get behind a trade involving Lewis or any of the top prospects for a better fit/longer term solution. I just don’t think Betts and Price make sense for the Twins given the reported asking price and contract situations.
    18 points
  2. This would be a spectacularly bad deal by baseballtradevalues.com -- $97 mil vs $19 mil. There's no way the Red Sox are getting anyone to take on that much salary and getting value like that back in return.
    16 points
  3. Without being able to re-sign Betts, you are giving up a whole heck of a lot for 2 more years of Price. While Betts and Price being in the fold for 2020 would increase the Twins WS odds, it doesn't guarantee them anything. I'd have to pass. If you are going to trade away Lewis, IMO, it needs to be for a younger SP with at least 2 years or control.
    14 points
  4. No way I’d be in favor of giving up Lewis in a trade for one year of Mookie Betts and three years of David Price’s contract. Highly doubt Betts resigns here and not sure I’d even want them to at the cost which will almost certainly be in the Rendon range or higher. Offense is not and will not be the problem here for several years. They should save their ammo for a better fit and longer term solution.
    13 points
  5. I've been impressed with the Twins approach to communicating expectations for players. However anyone feels about the choice, at least Graterol can prepare for camp understanding their plans for him. I hope they avoid using Graterol as a "fireman" to start the season. IMO, irregular work might be as hard on his arm as starting. I'd rather see him pitch multiple innings in tandem with the 5th starter. It would be fun to see Graterol in combination with Smeltzer to start the season. Smeltzer throwing low velocity, high spin fastballs mixed with three offspeed pitches. Graterol following with 99 MPH sinkers and ferocious sliders from the right side. I can't think of a more radical difference in styles. Either one could start and the change would be jarring to hitters.
    12 points
  6. I think we need to stop thinking about "reliever" in the traditional sense. Strategies are changing these days. Take a look at how the Rays have used Ryan Yarbrough over the past couple seasons (I think he was referenced earlier in this thread). Last year Yarbrough operated primarily as a reliever in the first half, often throwing multiple innings, and then moved in to the rotation after the AS break. Finished around 140 IP (which is probably Graterol's cap). In 2018, 32 of his 38 appearances came in relief but he still threw 150 innings. There's no reason to assume Graterol will be used strictly as a one-inning reliever. I suspect that (barring another SP addition) the Twins will run a number of bullpen games in the early going to fill the rotation gaps, with multiple guys throwing multiple innings. It's entirely plausible he could throw over 100 IP while being used strictly as a reliever.
    11 points
  7. Worked for Johan, it can work for Brusdar. Santana spent 4 years, age 21 to 24, working primarily out of the bullpen, while starting more games each year. His innings ramped up from 86 to 158 over that time. Games started from 5 to 18. When he moved over to full time starting at 25, he won the Cy Young. Let him spot start once in a while. May as well be the beneficiary of that arm while he gradually increases his innings.
    9 points
  8. I'd rather they just look into what it would take to get Price. We don't need Betts. He's a great player, no doubt, but the Twins have lots of outfielders, that don't cost nearly as much. Have them eat half or so of Price's contract and we give them a prospect outside of our top 10 and I would be in.
    8 points
  9. So, three of their Top-10 prospects, massive salary relief, plus a sold major leaguer and two other prospects that aren't that far removed from being viewed as jewels of the system? For one year of Mookie Betts, three ridiculously expensive seasons of an aging and oft-injured pitcher and a prospect that looks to be Balzovic light? Hard, hard, hard pass. Betts helps, but I don't believe for a second that Price helps this team win now or in the future. I'm not averse to moving any prospect or established player ... if it helps the team in either short- or long-term. I don't think this move would accomplish either.
    8 points
  10. While I believe the Twins should be closer to $160m in payroll, this would put them around $180m, which is probably unreasonable.
    7 points
  11. This isn't really an "in my opinion" question - given his lack of extended work, he's far more likely to to have arm issues starting & racking up innings over the course of the year. There have been actual studies to this end, and luckily the Twins don't need to rely on your apparently un-researched opinion. Two examples of recent studies: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350667/ and http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2016/01/predicting-pitcher-injuries/
    7 points
  12. I don’t like this much, at least not in 2020. The Twins’ bullpen is already pretty good, they don’t *need* Graterol. But that rotation sure could use a Graterol whether he arrives in 2021, 2022, or whenever.
    7 points
  13. 10 innings outside of the clunker falls under SSS for sure. I'm not saying the results were bad, but we have to recognize that right now it's more results inconclusive rather then pinning hopes that he can rival Rodgers for the best reliever... Now that said, he needs to get 100-120 innings this season. He won't do that in the pen... so I guess the question I have is why he cannot get some starts in April/May given that both Pineda and Hill won't be available? It helps log the innings. It keeps him the majors, and he can switch back to the pen when one comes back.
    7 points
  14. Johan Santana is my all time favorite Twins pitcher (Camilo Pasqual is my sentimental 2nd) I saw greatness in Santana when he 1st start pitching & couldn`t figure out why they didn`t utilize him more as a starter from the beginning (now I better understand). I have the same hope in Graterol as an ace starter. He has the poise to pitch in the ML. He just needs to develop his secondary pitches to offset his FB. Yes, I`d like to see the Twins go all out this year too but the BP isn`t a problem spot where we have to have Gaterol, our problem spot is SP. So there we need to focus on. I think we are better served down the road to have Gaterol start in the minors to work primarily on his secondary pitches & rotate him up in the majors as needed as an opener. Absolutely we need to limit his pitches, we can still do that as him as a starter & slowly increase his playing time. By the time PS comes around, hopefully he`ll have all his pitches working to start in the play-offs if not he can be used in the pen then. Next year we`ll have an more establish starter. All that said I trust Wes Johnson. That`s why they pay him the big bucks & I`m only an armchair manager
    7 points
  15. "Jake Cave" and "capable placeholder" are words that should not ever be placed in the same sentence, unless the words "is not and will never be a" are placed between them.
    7 points
  16. I think Rosario played hurt most of last year. He was not even making his over aggressive base running mistakes. He was not playing defense nearly as well as he had. He was still hitting so he continued to play through it. I think this year if healthy he goes back to .290 Average with .320 OBP with his usual power. I think a healthy Eddie is well worth 10 million. Comparing him to Trevor Plouffe is a low blow.
    7 points
  17. It's about what the body is conditioned to handle. Wainwright, prior to pitching as a reliever his rookie year, had thrown 160+ IP in the minors three times. "Let the young man throw the ball" is simply not a blueprint the Twins can follow with Graterol. They need to be extremely thoughtful and careful about his usage and strain level. This is a vital asset to their future, no matter his role.
    6 points
  18. I don't think the Twins are taking on this kind of salary (and I'm not sure if they should), but I also don't think this goes far enough toward a WS championship either. Betts is obviously very good, but Price is like a 2-3 WAR pitcher these days, if he's even healthy -- and he'd be taking up a massive amount of resources which you would probably need to get pitching elsewhere. You might be better able to justify it if it was Sale instead of Price. Still probably too much money / prospects, and you'd still need to be confident in Sale's health, but as of 2019, he was still much closer to being a difference-making SP than Price.
    5 points
  19. Right ... if we are going take on salary ... they aren't getting that many good prospects in return, especially not BOTH Lewis and Belazovic. Just, no way. For either of them. And if Boston really wants the salary relief, they'd better not be expecting a return like that.
    4 points
  20. These are some really good thoughts on Polanco and I'm very interested in seeing how the Twins coaching staff attacks this. We had Billy Boyer in for our inaugural MN BAT Summit a couple weekends ago and we took the speakers out to dinner the night before. Boyer had some incredible insight into how the organization is attacking infield development and trying to expand the use of analytics into that sector of the game. The number one goal, he said, was get to as many balls as possible and get outs. They put a lot less stress on errors so long as a player is getting to more balls and trying to make plays (obviously reoccurring routine errors are addressed but if a player is doing everything they can to make the play, it's less important). One thing I found interesting is that we were discussing if an infield should keep from forcing plays, just pocket the ball on a play that has little likelihood for success. Sort of a discussion on Joe Maddon's Respect 90 bit. It seemed to me that Sano had a few errors trying to make plays that had little chance of getting an out and then gave the runner second base. Turns out, the Twins are training their infielders to fire the ball in almost all circumstances -- do everything you can to try to make the play. Another aspect of Polanco's arm slot change was to match his posture better. The Twins felt he would force the over-the-top action when his posture was better suited for a lower more natural slot. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1117961354953089024 The Twins recently hired Tucker Frawley out of Yale (Boyer was a huge advocate for his addition) and Frawley has a lot of interesting charts on what the optimal release point should be based on the player's posture after fielding: https://twitter.com/INFchatter/status/1216712814808698881/photo/1 In reality, infielders shouldn't have one slot but should be able to make throws from all angles based on how they fielded the ball. I didn't ask Boyer specifically about Polanco but I am assuming the Twins will want to get Polanco better at using all the tools in the tool belt, so to speak. In general, Boyer talked about exchange time for middle infielders which can be better than velocity. He cited David Eckstein (calling it the Eckstein factor) as a player who had sub-optimal arm strength but was so good at getting the ball off that it made him that much better. The Twins have some smart, smart people in their organization and it can only help improve player development.
    4 points
  21. I don’t believe in counting minor league chickens until they hatch in the majors. Eddie’s year was an odd one, undervalued given his defense and the fact that he was only one of many bombas. But he’s a major league talent, not a prospect. This year will tell the tale; if the team contends, he’ll be a factor. If not, and he plays up to speed, he’ll have real trade value and it’ll be time to cash in. I’m spoiled: I moved to Minnesota in 1985 and saw two world championships in seven years. It’s fun. I want the youngsters among us to experience that kind of run. This could be one of those years and we need Eddie until we don’t.
    4 points
  22. Executive summary of article: "Throw better. Use better footwork." OK, but this has been the knock on him for a long time. I expect most of the ideas coaches have were tried, Good luck trying again this spring, I suppose, but I feel like I'm looking at a second baseman. As long as the bat holds up, and I think it will, Polanco's an asset at short. Just not the superstar we want.
    4 points
  23. Rosie is definitely a year to year guy. A lot will depend on how Kirilloff and Larnach progress in the minors. I woudln't be surprised if Eddie stays for another year, but I don't see him getting a long term deal here.
    4 points
  24. I am one of Eddie's biggest supporters and I hope he takes some steps forward and improves defensively this year. Right now the Minnesota Twins have no one to replace his 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI in the minor leagues, so I don't think he's going anywhere for 2020. Beyond that, we'll have to see how much Larnach, Rooker, and Kirilloff are able to force the issue with their improved play.
    4 points
  25. I still want to see him as a starter at some point but then I think of Romero and Meyer. This is probably for the best for this year, and the pen was lacking a velocity arm. Rodgers Romo Clippard Duffey May Graterol Littel Open competition spot
    4 points
  26. In my opinion he is just as likely to blow out his arm throwing 100mph out of the pen. They can tell themselves they are protecting his arm and it might be the absolute best thing they can do or the absolute worst and anywhere in between. Is throwing 180 innings in 30 starts with a fastball at 96 better or worse than throwing 60 times out of the pen at 101? No way of knowing. Not surprising that throwing over 100 as a starter 5 innings at a time has caused some strain but no real science to back up that either. I was hoping he would start right out of the gate but he should be a significant asset out of the pen. Now we are talking Berrios, Odo, Bailey, Dobnak and Thorpe/Shmeltzer?
    4 points
  27. We continue to believe on this site, that all the "Pie in the Sky" players in the minors are going to be able to replace Rosario. He may have had a down year defensively playing hurt. But I'll role with Eddie in left for a few more years. Byron Buxton is a great fielder but never plays much. I don't see any articles on releasing him? If the Twins can sign Rosario for 8-10 million a year for next 4 years he is worth it. He hits and he is the straw that stirs the drink on this team. People get excited when Eddie is at the plate because he is exciting to watch. All these guys in the minors are worth more in a trade than Rosario will ever be at this point. Trade them before they are exposed.
    4 points
  28. Hi all, been a long-time reader and figured I should break the seal and post some, too. Apologies in advance for any bad formatting. I personally like the Graterol bullpen move, especially the clarity of it given the past Twins' tendency to waffle, which I never believe helps young players. Beyond the Santana comparisons, I think of Sale's transition. Yes, he was a reliever turned starter, but it's not unthinkable to believe the innings trajectory and path couldn't be similar. Age 21 season: 23 innings as a rp, 1.93 ERA Age 22 season: 71 innings as a rp, 2.79 ERA Age 23 season: 192 innings as a starter, 3.05 ERA, All-Star and 6th in CY voting We'd all be pretty happy--and patient--for that path, I'd imagine.
    3 points
  29. Now that I think about it more, this ask from the Sox is pretty laughable. Is there a single team in baseball *able* to take on $50m+ in contracts right now, much less one that is *willing* to take on $50m+ in contracts? Almost all the teams that can handle that kind of payroll addition have recently scaled their payrolls to the point where they can’t do it right now.
    3 points
  30. Eddie before and after his injury last season: Before: .282/.312/.529/.841 OPS After: .268/.465/.465/.750 OPS I really don't think he ever fully recovered and it impacted his defense as well. The top player you have no problem paying $8M to play a corner spot, the bottom one you do. I really hope he comes into camp fully recovered, we will see what his numbers do, especially hitting in an even better lineup. IMO, Eddie wasn't traded not because he didn't have value, but simply a contending team doesn't trade a piece like him unless they have someone knocking at the door and confidence they could replicate his production, which IMO, the Twins do not.
    3 points
  31. I have enjoyed Eddie and figure that if there was trade demand he would go, like any player, if the offer is good enough. But if the theories about Eddie being gone in a year or two are correct than I say replace Cave with the player we think will take that spot. Put Larnach or Kiriloff in the 4th OF spot. Season them in MLB, let them step in for rest or injury. Having Cave play when we do not see him as the final solution makes no sense to me.
    3 points
  32. I like Eddie, but the Twins are correct to go year to year on him. The defense is a real concern (hopefully his defensive decline was health-related and he's at full strength again but you never know) because his range has really dropped, he's been taking increasing numbers of bad routes and just dropping some balls that you think are in his glove. His arm is still plus, but in LF it just doesn't play as much and he's negated some of that value by airmailing it over his cutoff man. The bigger concern is his plate discipline. That .300 OBP really hurts his value as a hitter and his refusal to take a walk is just not great. I get that he's a streak hitter and when he's going no one can get him out it seems like...but those runs where he's not squaring up on the ball? when he's swinging at pitches off the plate by 2 feet or balls that bounce in front of him or are up at his eyes? Yikes. He's still a good player. But is he going to be worth $10M in 2021? Hard to say that he will if his D doesn't bounce back or his plate discipline stays awful. 30 hrs are nice, but he's on a 3-year decline in OPS+, which really does measure offense pretty well. (119, 116, 106, in case you were wondering) His BBs are on a 3 year decline as well. I think if his overall production slides again, he's going the way of Plouffe. I think if it stays exactly the same as last year it's a coin flip, but they probably keep him unless Kirilloff or Larnach is hitting so much that you just can't keep them down any longer (and they might have to had shown something in an MLB stint too). If the D & OBP kick back up to 2018 levels he's back 100%. I like Eddie Rosario. When he's cooking there's no player more fun to watch (except Buxton). We ignore the defensive foibles, overlook the crazy decisions on the basepaths, and it doesn't matter if he swings at a pitch near his eyes, because it'll get smacked to the wall. But when he's slumping, he turns into a complete mess at the plate and every other problem gets magnified.
    3 points
  33. While the only way for a team (not in LA or NY) to get an ace is to develop one, I think this is probably the best move. 1) I'm not sold that he has enough pitches to be an effective starter yet. 2) As another poster already say, we kept waiting for Meyer and Romero to build up their innings levels too. If it hasn't happened by the time he reached AAA, it's not a sign it's going to happen. 3) In an era of Andrew Miller, Josh Hader, and openers, there are more opportunities for innings. In theory, he could throw 70-90 IP as a reliever instead of the 50-60 standard of a few years ago.
    3 points
  34. I find myself going back and forth between "like" and "hate" this when it comes to a plan for Graterol in 2020. I would rather the plan be use him as a starter until you have to limit his innings out of the bullpen, but that likely means he's not on the opening day roster, so there's the tradeoff. But I would also consider that I don't really see him as being needed out of the gate in the bullpen, or that this scenario is likely to happen. I certainly don't take 9.2 innings in September/October as gospel for what he could or could not do out of the bullpen. Thus, if he's not going to crack the opening day roster, he should be starting to begin the year.
    3 points
  35. He's clearly ready to be a difference maker now but needs to continue to build up innings. Wes Johnson said he's bullpen bound but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be used as a traditional single inning reliever. There are lots of ways they could deploy him as a multi-inning opener or reliever on somewhat of a rotation that could be mutually beneficial to the team and to his development. Maybe the Twins just feel that the best place for an arm this valuable but to date fragile is with the big league club where he'll get the best coaching, training, mentorship and nutrition the Twins can provide. As a fan I can't wait to watch him make hitters look foolish all summer instead of just reading about it in the minor league forum game recaps.
    3 points
  36. -outside the box, I know- Try having him be the opener for another pitcher who doesn't go long--like Odoh. Go three-four innings a start. 3 or 4 innings times 30 starts=90-120 innings. Plus it saves a lot on the bullpen for Odoh's starts.
    3 points
  37. Graterol can still be transitioned to a starter role. He isn’t stuck in the bullpen for the rest of his career. He’s still only 21. I like this move (for now), as long as they keep the options open in what he is able to do each year.
    3 points
  38. The dude hits 30+bombas and 100+ RBI yet we are questioning his status due to shaky defensive metrics? Sometimes a situation can get over analyzed and new information can blind us from long standing truths that still have some merit.
    3 points
  39. It seems to me they tried to be careful with him last year in AA and he still ended up hurt. IMO they don't believe his arm can hold up to a starters load without injury. Maybe it won't hold up to pen work either but probably best to get his arm through a full season first and then go from there. If he can help the MLB club out of the pen while doing that then all the better.
    3 points
  40. Great move to maximize what we can get out of him this year. Also demonstrates they are in win-now mode and not worrying about service time considerations with a guy they know can help them win right now. Would not mind seeing him get some “opener” time early in the year while we wait on Pineda to return so he can get 2-3 inning stints on a regular schedule, and then later in the year a late inning bullpen role.
    3 points
  41. Be careful. You are not allowed to be an Eddie fan on this site. Are never allowed to say anything good about him!! Such a joke
    3 points
  42. This became a bigger issue when Mauer retired. He was an under rated defensive first baseman. Really good with throws in the dirt. It seems to me that Polanco does not set his feet even when he has time. Throws on the run and that hurts his accuracy.
    3 points
  43. 3 points
  44. I definitely think it’s time to go for it, I’m only saying that pushing payroll from $130m to $180m in a single offseason is unlikely to happen and, with Price involved, might not even be a good idea.
    2 points
  45. Good teams often led players go after team control expires. It's one of the most difficult parts of maintaining a successful roster. When the current core hits that point, they can only afford to keep maybe half. I would let a quality corner OF go into free agency almost every time. Production is easier to replace at that position. Of course, I also think Eddie's personality is a big part of this team. But we have 1-2 years to figure that out.
    2 points
  46. I have no comment on this article in particular. I just want to say how happy I am to log on to quality articles by Nick, Cody and Matt this morning!
    2 points
  47. +1 or presser I thought that there was a Political Correct issue or something
    2 points
  48. I love the DH and dislike players who only DH while thanking my lucky stars that Nelson Cruz is on the roster all at the same time.
    2 points
  49. Why would anyone give up front line SP for him if his 780 OPS last year is indicative of what he will or will not be at the MLB level? Is it fair to say someone would have to believe his AA season was representative of his ceiling and his scorching performance at A / A+ were not representative? I guess the good news is that the FO has a good portion of the MiLB season to evaluate this prior to the deadline.
    2 points
  50. This was really well done. Also, welcome to Twins Daily Cody!
    2 points
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