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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/08/2020 in all areas

  1. Yelich was already a very good player in Miami, this article understates his talent quite a bit. Here's an age by age comparison: Age 21: Yelich - 118 OPS+, 1.8 fWAR; Kepler - Minors Age 22: Yelich - 118 OPS+, 4,1 fWAR; Kepler - -34 OPS+, -0.1 fWAR Age 23: Yelich - 120 OPS+, 2.4 fWAR; Kepler - 93 OPS+, 1.3 fWAR Age 24: Yelich - 134 OPS+, 5.4 fWAR; Kepler - 94 OPS+, 1.5 fWAR Age 25: Yelich - 117 OPS+, 4.6 fWAR; Kepler - 98 OPS+, 2.7 fWAR Age 26: Yelich - 166 OPS+, 7.6 fWAR; Kepler - 121 OPS+, 4.4 fWAR The main difference is that Yelich has always hit the ball incredibly hard. Every year that statcast tracks he's been in the top 10% of the league for average exit velocity, usually in the top 5%. Kepler has never been in the top 10%. Not to rag on Kepler who became an excellent player last year, but he basically only reached the level of player that Yelich was in Miami, and I don't see how he reaches present day Yelich territory without increasing his exit velocity by several MPH or making some other drastic change in his contact rate and/or plate discipline, and I don't know how that happens.
    12 points
  2. Just sign Donaldson. Even if he only totals 13.5 WAR over 4 years it's a good value. He'll have 10 WAR in the first two years feasting on AL central pitching, then worst case scenario he plays some third and still is worth 2 WAR as a DH in year three and four. There you go. You also improve the infield defense for 2020 and 2021 and probably have the best lineup in MLB in 2020. Do it. The guy has been a 5 WAR player 6 of the last 7 years and would have been the best player on the Twins last year.
    5 points
  3. From Steve Adams chat: Donaldson Ducks 2:45 Do you think anyone meets Donaldson's $110 million amount? Steve Adams 2:47 I don't. That seems like a case of his camp overplaying its hand. Look at the latest reports on him... Twins around $85MM. Braves "not close" to having the top offer. Nats have signed three infielders in three weeks. Who's going to suddenly jump to 110 to get this done? I think he'll sign under $100MM and there'll be some narratives surrounding why he took less than his asking price. "Really wanted to stay in ATL," or "Really wanted to join the WS champs" or "Loved the Twins' young core and a weak AL Central pitching landscape," etc. Nats 2:47 Chances we sign Donaldson? Steve Adams 2:48 At this point I'd just put 30% on each of the Twins/Braves/Nats and throw a 10% "you never know" option out there for the ever-popular "mystery" team. (Maybe the Dodgers will get weird and offer him like 2/65 or something) That all sounds like an accurate take to me. Not sure about his percentages, but I'll bet the final narrative ends up sounding like this. At this point I don't think Donaldson is going to get what he wants. Maybe his camp said $110M hoping to get one of the teams to $100M.
    4 points
  4. The output changed because he made physical changes to his set-up/swing. In 2018 his profile was that he would hit balls in that 95+ exit velo and 10-30 degree launch angle into the opposite field gap, so a lot of those were tracked down. He made some modifications to his posture and didn't stride to the plate as much with his front leg, thereby closing himself off, in 2019 and that resulted in driving the ball better to the pull side. The increase in pulling the ball more was by design and it has worked well for him.
    4 points
  5. Great article. I would like to see MLB stop playing games with the baseball. I hope they find one this year they can stick with and also not change it for the post season.
    4 points
  6. That is a pretty nice list as well. Depending on how Graterol looks in camp he could get the nod to start this year will have to wait and see. Love your Sands pick. I have been watching him and he got better as the year went on. I don't think he has premium velocity but I think he has very solid secondaries. They should start him in AA This will be a big year for him. If he continues to do well he could end up in MLB this year. Not quite as low on Gordon as you are. He might not quite have what it takes to be a starter but I still think he might be a bit of a late bloomer with the man muscles. Once he fills out I still believe he can play shortstop and if not certainly play second base. We'll see how it turns out as this is yet another big year for him.
    4 points
  7. Trading for Bryant would be a mistake. The Twins would have no chance of resigning him and would only have him for 2 years. It would not be worth the price he would command when the Twins have a glaring weakness in the starting rotation. The Twins should be focusing on trading for pitching over dreams of trading for the likes of Bryant & Arenado.
    4 points
  8. As a starting point in an attempt to estimate an unknown market value, sure. Treating it as gospel that you won't move an inch off, even after entering the market and finding that your assigned values are not competitive in the actual marketplace, no. Silly, in any business.
    3 points
  9. Tossing out my own observations based on everything reported. 1] Donaldson made $23M last year. The Twins offer is for more than $20M per. Pretty easy to assume that means $88-92M. 2] Safe to assume Atlanta...who has their own budget and value numbers to consider, just like the Twins and everyone else...have a lower offer on the table or this deal would be done. If not, you would think Donaldson and his reps would make their own counter offer to finalize a deal if the numbers are close since Atlanta is supposedly his favorite landing spot. 3] Washington may have indeed made the largest offer, but it's also speculated their offer includes deferred $, as they have done previously, thus making their total offer no more, and possibly less than the Twins when all future value is addressed. While I don't feel strongly Donaldson is coming, I think it is more than fair to believe the Twins are "in it" still and have a very good offer on the table. 4] I think losing out when a $2-3M per year bump could just get this over and done and get his name on the dotted line would be a shame not to happen. I understand budgets and projections and values, but at this point, a couple $M per year over 4 just shouldn't stop the Twins if they and Donaldson are serious. 5] However, I do think saying "the hell with it, here's a bump all the way up to $110M" starts to cross a line from overpaying for what you want and takes "stupid money" to the "ridiculous money" aspect. At some point there is a line in the sand that you just decide it doesn't make enough sense to cross.
    3 points
  10. I don't think it's anything as nefarious as trying to trick the fanbase. I think they are just so locked into this silly "assigned value", that they end up making unrealistic offers and not budging on them.
    3 points
  11. I'd argue the exact opposite. He was drafted in 2013 (in the ninth round, no less!), and despite being a catcher, he was in the majors by 2017. The following year he was a primary catcher. For a pretty good prospect, that's a nice pace through the minors. For a ninth rounder, that's fast. For a ninth round catcher that's breakneck. For a ninth round catcher who was the best hitting catcher in the game last year, that's ludicrous speed.
    3 points
  12. Take a look at the ranking parameters. That might help and I am pretty sure all-stars (Berrios / Polanco) have proven themselves. This type of assessment involves a fair amount of speculation but Nick has done a nice job of laying out how he came to these rankings. The fact that's it's not an exact science makes for interesting debate.
    3 points
  13. Nick, you're doing a great job at a difficult task. I have a comment though... Nick's question: "Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?" Seems the answer depends on when you think the Twins can be a champion. If it's the next two seasons, I'd rate Sano and Buxton higher than Lewis, Balazovic and Kirilloff (IMO). Maybe put Rogers higher on the list too. If you're shooting for 2021 and beyond, the prospects move right behind Berrios, Polanco and Kepler. This is my problem with the Twins FO. They say they want to win it all now but they act like they're looking at 2021 or 2022. If it's now, they need to trade top prospects for a SP (and maybe a corner bat). If it's later, they could trade Sano, Rosario and May for AA prospects (or sign Sano and May to long-term contracts). The FO keeps hedging their bets. At some point they have to commit to a plan. There's still time this offseason. Maybe at the trade deadline. Maybe when they have to adjust their 40-man roster next offseason. Ugh
    3 points
  14. I love Mitch, but I think we're putting too much stock into his rise. Let's see him replicate 2019 before even mentioning him in the conversation for best catcher in the game. For the final five, I'd have them ordered: 5. Lewis 4. Graterol (we need pitching desperately) 3. Polanco 2. Kepler 1. Berrios
    3 points
  15. Cannot agree more with your last comment about Buxton. For that reason, I am hopeful that the Twins work out a nice extension with him before opening day. Putting the issues of September 2018 behind him together with long term security may be a factor in his changing how he plays the game to becoming a safer Byron Buxton in the field. He is a potential MVP.
    3 points
  16. Not to be that guy, but... Per Forbes list last year, Atlanta had $75 mil more annual revenue than the Twins. They also had $71 mil in profit, in a year with a $118 mil opening day payroll (compared to the Twins, who only had $14 mil profit on $128 mil opening day payroll). I'm not saying those numbers are gospel, but I don't think it's correct to suggest the Braves are really more constrained at a $129 mil payroll than the Twins at $116 mil. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll shell out for Donaldson, but they absolutely could afford to, just as much if not more than the Twins.
    3 points
  17. Like you, I would say Eddie would be little affected by a switch back to a standard baseball in a hypothetical 2020 season. Sano hits the ball a mile, Kepler has a great level swing that produces great backspin, and Cruz is just a professional hitter plain and simple, so hopefully not those guys either. Garver has a great eye for the strike zone but I’d be most concerned with Garver’s production dropping off next year, dejuiced ball or not.
    3 points
  18. If the Twins don't have the top offer and they aren't willing to budge, I'm not really sure how Falvey thinks they are still in on Donaldson.
    3 points
  19. For me I would say Rhodery Diaz from the DSL. He hit 319/406.458 for a 864 OPS. I believe he is also a center fielder. Not a lot of guys hit 300 at his age in the DSL so I think he has very good contact skills. Donny Breek is another one to watch. He has done well the last two years. I don't think he is an uber hard thrower just yet but he just turned 20 so probably a little more in the tank yet. Osiris German I believe throws a little bit harder and will turning 21 hope to see him A ball this year. His K9 looks pretty good so hoping there is something there. I also will be keeping my eye on Will Holland and Eduard Jullian to see if the Twins might have gotten a couple of steals there.
    3 points
  20. After covering Nos. 11 through 20 in Part 1 and Part 2 of these rankings, we're now venturing into the Top 10. These are foundational pieces in what the Twins are trying to accomplish; ranking these players against one another wasn't easy. Read on to see how it shook out.First, to reiterate the parameters and stipulations: Things that are factored into these rankings: production, age, upside, pedigree, health, length of team control, favorability of contract, positional scarcity (within the system, and generally).Players are people. Their value to the organization, and its fans, goes well beyond the strictly business-like scope we're using here. But for the purposes of this list, we're analyzing solely in terms of asset evaluation. Intangible qualities and popularity are not factors. (Sorry Willians.)The idea is to assess their importance to the future of the Minnesota Twins. In this regard, it's not exactly a ranking in terms of trade value, because that's dependent on another team's situation and needs. (For instance, Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade, Jr. would be more valuable to many other teams than they are to the Twins, who are rich with short-term and long-term corner outfield depth.)This is a snapshot in time. Rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and where things stood as of the end of 2019.Current major-leaguers and prospects are all eligible. The ultimate goal here to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?Any questions or quibbles, holler in the comments. Let's continue the countdown. TOP 20 MINNESOTA TWINS ASSETS OF 2020 (6-10) 10. Luis Arraez, 2B 2019 Ranking: NR Last offseason, the Twins briefly considered exposing Arraez to the Rule 5 draft but thought better of it, adding him to the 40-man roster one day after doing the same for Nick Gordon and LaMonte Wade, Jr. It was a wise decision to say the least. The scrappy and perpetually overlooked Arraez raked everywhere in 2019. He batted .342 at Double-A, .348 at Triple-A, and most impressively, .342 during a 92-game major-league debut that saw him finish sixth for AL Rookie of the Year. At age 22, Arraez was a disciplined OBP force, bringing balance to an aggressive and power-laden lineup. He showed solid defense at second and even looked capable in left. The upward trend with his power – he hit four homers with the Twins after totaling six in 367 minor-league games – hints toward offensive upside yet to be tapped. 9. Alex Kirilloff, OF 2019 Ranking: 4 Kirilloff didn't have a bad year in 2019. Taking on Double-A as a 21-year-old, he batted .283 with a .756 OPS in 94 games. Perfectly solid numbers given the context. But he didn't nearly match the excellence of his breakout 2018 campaign, and lost extensive time to a wrist injury, which is a tough developmental blow for a young player who missed all of 2017 due to Tommy John. Kirilloff remains the best pure hitting prospect in the organization, but the luster has worn off slightly and his indispensability has diminished somewhat with the continued rise of Trevor Larnach and others. This explains why Kirilloff ranks as a Top 10 asset rather than a Top 5 asset this time around, but he's still plenty valuable and exciting. 8. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 2019 Ranking: NR The same thought process that led to Jhoan Duran ranking 13th applies here: "Pitching prospects with high ceilings that are close to the major leagues are valuable to every franchise, and especially to the Twins in this moment." Balazovic is a bit further from the majors than Duran, having finished at High-A in 2019, but he's on a higher prospect tier. In fact, Balazovic is the best pitching prospect in the system who has yet to reach the majors. Duran has great stuff, but he lacks the consistent results to back it up. This is where Balazovic separates. Since joining the organization as a fifth-round pick in 2016, the right-hander has simply performed, registering a 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 10.0 K/9 rate through his first 228 innings as a pro. At 6'5" and 214 lbs, he's a big sturdy athlete with a mid-90s fastball and advanced command. He was absolutely sensational in 2019, with a 2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 rate between two levels of A-ball at age 20, so his stock is riding high. Can he build upon it? 7. Byron Buxton, OF 2019 Ranking: 3 A healthy Buxton can be one of the most impactful difference-makers in Major League Baseball. This was the premise for ranking him No. 1 two years ago, and No. 3 last year. It was reinforced in 2019 when he was on the field, as the center fielder accrued 2.7 fWAR in just 87 games with an .827 OPS, 44 extra-base hits, 14 steals, and almost unparalleled defensive value. Alas, the overriding story of Buxton's season was, once again, injury. And it's one that spills over into 2020, as the 26-year-old is currently in the process of rehabbing from significant shoulder surgery. He's opened four different seasons with the Twins and played 100 games in only one of them. The mounting physical uncertainties make it impossible to trust his reliability going forward, making him feel like more of a bonus factor than centerpiece crux. And while free agency is still three years away, it's no longer a tiny blip on the horizon. With that said, if he can find a way to make it happen, a full healthy and productive season from Buxton will be more pivotal to Minnesota's championship hopes than any ace pitcher the Twins could sign or trade for. I firmly believe that. 6. Mitch Garver, C 2019 Ranking: 11 Is Garver the best catcher in baseball? Is he one of the best offensive backstops in MLB history? Will he be an MVP contender for years to come? Based entirely on the sample of his 2019 season, the answer to all those questions would be "yes," and he'd be No. 1 in these rankings with a bullet. But that sample amounts to only 93 games, and is so wildly out of line with his previous track record that it's tough to know exactly how to weight it. Garver has shown a knack for improving himself and disproving doubters, transforming from ninth-round draft pick to fringy catching prospect to bona fide big-league starter, but the leap last year was drastic by any standard. Thirty-one homers and a .995 OPS in 93 games, from a CATCHER (one with noticeably improved defense), is nuts. But it remains to be seen whether Garver was playing out of his mind for six months with a juiced ball, or setting a new norm. It bears noting that he turns 29 next week, making him the oldest player in this Top 10 by a sizable margin, and the only one who's not on the front end of his physical prime. Regardless, Garver has clearly established himself as a long-term building block, with four years of team control remaining. RECAPPING THE RANKINGS SO FAR: 20. Ryan Jeffers, C 19. Eddie Rosario, OF 18. Michael Pineda, RHP 17. Nelson Cruz, DH 16. Tyler Duffey, RHP 15. Jake Odorizzi, RHP 14. Trevor Larnach, OF 13. Jhoan Duran, RHP 12. Taylor Rogers, LHP 11. Miguel Sano, 3B 10. Luis Arraez, 2B 9. Alex Kirilloff, OF 8. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 7. Byron Buxton OF 6. Mitch Garver, C Check back in tomorrow for Part 4. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
    2 points
  21. In September, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred was quoted as saying “We need to make a change to the baseball” in an exclusive interview with Forbes. This article will look at how a “de-juiced” baseball will impact the Twins top five home run hitters from the 2019 record breaking season.If Major League Baseball does in fact “de-juice” the ball, then we can assume that nearly every player and team will see a reduction in the number of home runs hit. Specifically, this article will break down how much a “de-juiced” baseball might impact Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Garver in 2020. For being one of just 57 members in the 400 home run club, you might find it surprising that Nelson Cruz posted a career high home run per flyball rate (HR/FB) in 2019. His HR/FB rate of 31.3-percent was 10 points higher than the average rate of his career. He did this while maintaining a similar fly ball (FB) percentage that he’s had throughout his career, which would imply some home run regression in 2020. That said, his 2019 average launch angle (LA) was greater than his career average and similar to his 2018 average where he hit 37 bombas. Being the professional hitter that Nelson Cruz has been throughout his career, I wouldn’t expect too much regression in 2020. After emerging as a 2019 breakout candidate during his 2018 season, Max Kepler exploded onto the scene and quickly became one of the best all-around right fielders in the game. He has a similar story to “The Boomstick” without the track record to support an encore performance in 2020. In his last two seasons, he had almost the exact same FB percentage but he doubled his HR/FB rate last season. This could be partially explained by an increase in LA and is what should give Twins fans hope that he will see just a small regression in 2020. That said, he never had numbers like these in minors so I would expect something more like 2018 next season. Did you know that of players with 400 or more at-bats, Miguel Sano led the league in HR/FB rate? If that doesn’t scream regression, then consider this: His 36.6-percent HR/FB rate is the second highest for a single season since Fangraphs started tracking batted ball data in 2002. He maintained his career FB rate and LA, so I would expect him to see the second biggest regression of the top five. Keep in mind he missed 57 games in 2019 so he could still hit 30 plus home runs but at a less efficient clip. For all the flack Rosario has gotten for the second half of 2019 he may be the Twin to see the least amount of regression next season. Unlike the players mentioned before him, all the metrics (HR/FB rate, FB rate, EV, LA) that would indicate regression were right along his career numbers. Again, we can expect all players to see some drop but I wouldn’t expect Rosario’s to be more than whatever norm is established with a “de-juiced” ball. It’s hard to make a full judgement on Mitch Garver as he’s just finished his first full Major League season. Although he’s always been a flyball hitter, he never had anything close to a HR/FB rate of 29.0-percent in the minors. Per Brooks Baseball, Garver hit all but five home runs off of “hard pitches” in 2019 which means he could see a significant increase in off-speed pitches in 2020. Of all the candidates mentioned in this article, my money is on Garver seeing the biggest regression next year. Are you worried about a “de-juiced” baseball? How do you see it impacting the Twins or other teams around the league? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
    2 points
  22. I’ll remember how much fun I had all summer watching a young team gel and succeed together.
    2 points
  23. Cody Pirkl

    Waiting May Hurt

    Tonight we received the news that Eric Thames had signed with the Washington Nationals for the VERY reasonable price of $4m. Thames put together a slash line of .247/346/.505 last season, as well as 1.9 fWAR. He was likely a secondary option for the Minnesota Twins this offseason, who in my opinion very much still in need of a corner infielder after seeing C.J. Cron sign with the Tigers for $6.1m. First base was always a position the Twins were likely to wait on filling, as there were plenty of options on the market. Thames could have admirably platooned with his .877 OPS against righties. As somebody who had already moved on from Donaldson, I wondered why the Twins would allow Thames to go for such a cheap price. Shortly thereafter, I got my answer. According to Darren Wolfson, the Twins do not appear to be engaged in the corner infield market. In my opinion, there are two reasons this may be the case. The first is the most likely in my opinion. Josh Donaldson remains on the free agent market. It may be fair to say that the Washington Nationals are out of the bidding war after signing Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, and finally Eric Thames. The bigger issue however is the Atlanta Braves involvement. Donaldson has grown up in the area and has been up front about his desire to return in 2020. The last update on the situation had all teams offering 4 years for undisclosed amounts to lock Donaldson up. As we've seen this offseason however, the price may become a moot point to some extent. In fact, it has now been reported that Donaldson may not have any interest in signing with the Twins at all. As I had worried throughout this entire saga, Donaldson may have just been using the Twins to bulk his offer up from the Braves. This report also explains that the Twins are exploring other options, which is perplexing given the above report from Wolfson. It appears the Twins aren't willing to let go of hope of signing Donaldson after making no progress on the "impact" talent acquisition mentioned at the start of the offseason. The second scenario for the Twins passing over the corner infield free agent market is a more troubling one for me. There have been rumblings of the Twins using Marwin Gonzalez as a full time first baseman this winter, and they could be content with their internal options rather than spending in free agency. I had actually just written a blog on Marwin Gonzalez having a better year offensively in 2020 citing a full spring training and hopefully less injuries. I was not advocating however that he be given a full time role as a corner infielder. With league average wRC+ coming in at 100, Marwin was 7% worse in 2019 with 93. The bar to clear for "league average" on offense is higher for corner infield as a position that typically houses premier hitters. Even if Marwin rebounds to a bit above league average on offense in 2020, they will still likely have an offensively below average first baseman. On top of that, he would no longer be utilized so widely on the field, which has been his main source of value in his career. They will essentially be taking value away from the roster to fill a spot that they could have easily done more effectively in free agency. Regardless of reason, the thoughts above remain true. If the Twins don't sign another corner infielder and get stuck with internal options for a premier position like 1B, this will be yet another failure this offseason. Unlike with Bumgarner and Wheeler, this will have been an avoidable one. The offense will no doubt regress to some extent. The rotation is already an injury away from being a mess again. Every roster spot that we put a bandaid on instead of seriously addressing is another opportunity for the teams in the AL Central. If the Donaldson decision is holding up other deals, it's time to come to a conclusion one way or another. If the Twins front office believes they have their man already for corner infield, I seriously doubt it, but we'll have to wait and see. One thing is for certain though. Sitting here in January coming off 101 wins with over $10m less in payroll and this roster is not what I had pictured in October.
    2 points
  24. The best path to the Super Bowl is through Lambeau!
    2 points
  25. It's my understanding that the primary factor in the increase in the number of home runs last year was due not to changes in average exit velocity or in average launch angle or in the hardness of the ball, but rather to the decreased air resistance of the ball. This means that the distances of home runs hit would be the most important variable to consider. A player who hit a lot of dingers less than 400 feet will probably see a large regression. A player who hit a lot of them more than 400 feet will probably regress very little.
    2 points
  26. I feel like a slightly front-loaded 4/$105 gets it done. Offer him $32, 28, 25, 20. If they are worried about a payroll crunch in 2022/2023, that leaves the salary around the same as it would be on their current offer. And if he ends up a part-time DH by the 4th year, at least the salary is not outrageous.
    2 points
  27. So THAT's why the label on the Spicy Garv Sauce is plaid. Totally makes sense now .
    2 points
  28. Pretty remarkable how fast Arraez went from the #20 prospect to the #10 asset
    2 points
  29. First of all, it's not a clear 4/85 offer -- it's "in the 80-85 mil range" according to the report. So right off the bat, we're not even sure it's +$10 mil or just +$5 mil (or if there are incentives etc. in there). If it's actually $85 mil, it is certainly possible some players might prefer that over 3/75, although 90% seems high. Especially in this context, of a player considering a less familiar location at 4/85 -- he might value his freedom after 3 years (even the freedom to retire at that time), and getting $75 mil in those 3 years from a more familiar club, more than locking himself into a 4th year at that unfamiliar location just for a few extra mil (and presumably only getting ~$63 mil over the first 3 years, time value of money and all that). Additionally, a player chasing a ring might ask if the 4/85 organization is going to pursue that as aggressively as the team offering 3/75, which is going to further affect how he values that extra year and extra ~$10 mil. Which is why, in this context, I'd say 4/80-85 from the Twins is not clearly better than 3/75. It's not necessarily much worse either, but it's not clearly better like some are suggesting. (And according to the report, since 4/80-85 isn't the high offer, that suggests at least one other team might agree with me too. ) Edit to add: the Bumgarner example is interesting. He had 4/70 offers, and eventually signed for what I think gets valued at 5/81 after discounting deferments. But he extracted that offer and signed it at a preferred, familiar location. I don't think a Twins offer of 5/81 would have been clearly better than Arizona's 4/70 (especially if it wasn't necessarily $81 mil, and could have been closer to $75 mil before incentives or something -- and especially if there was higher offer closer to 5/90 somewhere else!). In fact, it seems possible that Bumgarner used the interest of other clubs to extract that extra year and $11 mil from his preferred destination -- something Donaldson could do too, if other teams were offering 3/75 to the Twins 4/85.
    2 points
  30. With Duran @ 13 and Balazovic @ 8, Graterol has to be top 5. He qualifies as a top pitching prospect near the big-leagues, as the most top pitching prospect closest and actually in the Bigs. That's following the author's logic anyhow.
    2 points
  31. He'll never steal the bases, so it will never happen. Nevermind the career OBP This is a rose-colored rube-off.
    2 points
  32. Hey they were only $68m off on Cole, $65m off on Stras, $26m off on Ryu....
    2 points
  33. The point that Donaldson didn`t choose Atlanta on Monday shows they gave a serious offer
    2 points
  34. It's not "controversial," it's just a false statement. Here's an easy proof: 1. Before free agency, Player X is projected by various internet sites to get a $75 million contract 2. On day 1 of free agency, Team 1 offers Player X an $80 million contract, but the player waits for other offers 3. On day 90 of free agency, Team 2 offers Player X $90 million and he accepts on the spot. According to you, Team 1's offer was not "serious" because it's significantly lower than Team 2's offer. But in reality, it was fully intended to be a winning offer, and only due to subsequent events was it unsuccessful. This is not a commentary on Donaldson, but just to point out that you're wrong in how you define a "serious offer."
    2 points
  35. I also got from that report the Twins haven't been asked to submit their final and best offer. I imagine they would go higher to win the bidding. If they are at 85 million then 90 or 95 would be tops. Of the three teams, Atlanta, DC, and Twins, it looks as though the Twins have the most financial flexibility to sign him...they just need to meet his asking price or be closer to it.
    2 points
  36. I'd say an offer can be "serious" but still have fairly low odds of actually landing the player, which is the more important measure to me. That seems to be the MO of this FO. At least for contracts beyond $26 mil. Darvish, Wheeler, Bumgarner, and Ryu. Maybe this offer to Donaldson will break the pattern, although that report from Doogie doesn't give me much confidence right now.
    2 points
  37. Respectfully, I suppose I just disagree with the notion that a 4 year, 100M contract to Josh Donaldson is as big of a financial risk as you make it out to be. The Twins have about 25M committed to the 2021 payroll right now, and even less going forward. It's one thing to "run a stable business", as you put it. Its another to make claims of aggressive pursuit of top tier free agents and extensions in order to increase a potential World Series run and then scoff at every single opportunity to do so. Josh Donaldson is a hell of a baseball player. One of the better 3B in the league, both offensively and defensively. He would be out of his mind not to consider coming to the Twins, sit in the middle of this lineup and feast on the AL Central pitching staffs. The *only* reason he won't is because the Twins won't pay him his market rate.
    2 points
  38. So they have to have won the bidding in order to be serious. And I'll just add that obviously Donaldson's camp think the Twins are serious as they remain in "near daily" contact.
    2 points
  39. Relative to what? MLB Traderumors offseason projections? Fun to read, perhaps, but completely meaningless. It's not even the top offer, even though we're already behind Atlanta and Washington for preferred destination. Making an offer that's not going to be enough isn't a serious offer, even if it's "a lot of money".
    2 points
  40. Just want to note that 4/92 is closer to 100 than 85. Donaldson made 23 each of the past two years, and 4/92 is 23/year. Also, the Nats could have a higher dollar offer with lots of money defered. (This is assuming everything in that report is accurate.)
    2 points
  41. Falvine and their "assigned values" have made a mess of this off-season. Have they not seen enough to admit this and adjust yet?
    2 points
  42. Just posted this in the other thread. Recap of Doogie Scoop on Skor North re: Donaldson (Doogie was on M and J during the 5 pm hour): Twins have a 4 year offer on the table to Donaldson that is closer to the $80-$85 million range as opposed to $100+Twins are NOT the high offer right nowDonaldson’s camp speaks with Twins FO almost dailyStar Tribune report that we are “out” on Donaldson is “asinine” and Doogie has no idea why the Twins would have leaked that (he confirmed the Miller report originated from Twins org.)Doogie’s sources say that Donaldson is extremely intrigued in playing in the AL again, that he’s an “AL guy”.Playing in the Central is also appealing considering the lack of pitching when compared to NL East team.Thinks 100% that Donaldson would play here if we upped our offer and that he is very open to the idea of playing for MinnesotaSays that upping the offer is not a Pohlad decision but that Falvine seem unwilling to budge off assigned “values” that they give free agentsIf all things are equal, Donaldson would likely re-sign with Atlanta, but clearly Atlanta hasn’t reached his asking price yet (neither have we obviously considering we don’t have the high offer)
    2 points
  43. Recap of Doogie Scoop on Skor North re: Donaldson: Twins have a 4 year offer on the table to Donaldson that is closer to the $80-$85 million range as opposed to $100+Twins are NOT the high offer right nowDonaldson’s camp speaks with Twins FO almost dailyStar Tribune report that we are “out” on Donaldson is “asinine” and Doogie has no idea why the Twins would have leaked that (he confirmed the Miller report originated from Twins org.)Doogie’s sources say that Donaldson is extremely intrigued in playing in the AL again, that he’s an “AL guy”. Playing in the Central is also appealing considering the lack of pitching when compared to NL East team.Thinks 100% that Donaldson would play here if we upped our offer and that he is very open to the idea of playing for MinnesotaSays that upping the offer is not a Pohlad decision but that Falvine seem unwilling to budge off assigned “values” that they give free agentsIf all things are equal, Donaldson would likely re-sign with Atlanta, but clearly Atlanta hasn’t reached his asking price yet (neither have we obviously considering we don’t have the high offer)
    2 points
  44. I`d like to take the time to thank all of Twins Daily for being! Off season would be totally boring w/o this forum to be a sound board & articles which inform us & provoke us in discussion. We have been always a great farm system. In recent past, except for a few exceptions of exceptional natural talented players, we had many prospects that didn`t pan out. The ones that stick out are Hicks, he had all the tools, even some that we have now like Buxton, Sano & Berrios that took longer than normal to develop. Of course there injuries, laziness & discouragement of the players but I wonder if some of it was past inadequate coaching ? I have more hope in the present coaching staff & hope we bring more prospects into full fruition more quickly
    2 points
  45. I like your picks, Cody. Here are my alternates: Brusdar Graterol as a contributor. Can he stay healthy? Will his change-up develop enough to be useful? I can envision him as either a SP or RP with the 2020 Twins. Depends how the FO sets his calendar. Gilberto Celestino as the riser. He plays a premium, up-the-middle position (CF) and took off the last two months of 2019. He'll start the season at Ft Myers but I think he'll break out and be in Pensacola by mid-year. A true two-way player. Nick Gordon as the faller. Not an exciting pick but he's a call away if a rash of injuries hits the middle infield. I'm not optimistic but he's still young. I haven't given up all hope. Cole Sands as the one to watch. Too many injuries in his short career. From what little I've seen of him, he has three legit pitches, including a change up. Moved from Cedar Rapids to Pensacola in one season, even though he made only 18 starts. I'm a fan of SP prospects who have good velo and show command with multiple pitches.
    2 points
  46. I think at this point, you make a final push to get Donaldson under contract. He fits pretty well. Improves the infield defense, adds a middle of the order bat. I'd try really hard to get it done. The money is there. If it takes 4/$110, do it. If, on the other hand, he says no, then I try to add a LH bullpen piece, and call it an offseason. I hope I survive the first half with 40 percent of a rotation, and see what's available at the deadline. It will still be expensive, but there may be more options. They blew the offseason, just tuck your tail between your legs, admit it, and hope for the best.
    2 points
  47. Worked OK with Knoblauch in 1991... I'd be OK with going with Kirilloff, but i think he missed enough time last year at AA to let him get another half-season at Double-A and/or Triple-A levels before coming up.
    2 points
  48. If Archer is the best you can get for Larnach then you just keep Larnach, IMO. I'm not saying you have to "win" every trade, but you don't want to be in a situation where you're taking almost all the risk in the deal. You're essentially eliminating any upside that Archer has if you trade Larnach for him. At that price he HAS to be pretty close to Archer at his absolute best. No thanks. He's a reclamation project, the cost should reflect that.
    2 points
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