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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/07/2019 in all areas

  1. I think he has a pretty high chance to debut in 2020, but probably not before July unless there's a long-term injury and he's outperforming everyone else they could call up. I'd call September the most likely. Have to remember there is still Rooker, Raley, and Wade around, as well as already MLB rostered fill-ins at both 1B and OF (Marwin, Cave, Sano, etc...)
    9 points
  2. I don't remotely trust the dWAR grades for Rosario. In 2017 and in 2019, dWAR graded him at Josh Willingham and Delmon Young levels. In 2018, they graded him average. Fangrapshs defensive valuations were slightly different but followed the same pattern - horrible in 17 and 19, better in 18. What was the big difference in those years? An elite CF was missing in 18. An article a while back (either on fangraphs or BP?) noted a problem with defensive calculations when a team had three really good defenders. One of the OFers would get negative grades because the other OFers took over. I think this is what is happening to Rosario - in 17 and 19 he made 66 and 63 'out of zone' plays. In 18, in about 100-200 fewer innings, he made 77 OOZ plays. Having Buxton and Kepler in center field has hurt him but he's a solid enough OFer.
    7 points
  3. Way too early to say he will never be an elite fielder. He has minimal experience at 1st base.
    7 points
  4. I like Rosario. I'm not a big defensive guy (not that I think he's as bad as made out to be) and he seems to be really well liked in the clubhouse, so I think he brings more to the table than just a bat. But the corner outfield is where you find all the free agent bargains. And the Twins have about 50 corner bat prospects within two levels of the majors.
    6 points
  5. No on Rosario as the Twins have prospects who can replace him that should be ready within two years. No on Rogers as he's a relief pitcher and has 4 more years of control. Maybe after next season if he's lights out again. Buxton is a ? to me. How do you even get an appropriate value for him with how much time he's missed. I'd probably wait until next offseason as he also has 4 more years of team control. I'd look to get something done for Sano. Can MLB contracts be incentive based? If so I'd want to put in extra incentives that will motivate him. Berrios is a no doubter in my mind. He seems like a great teammate and is very hardworking. I'd look to lock him up as long as possible.
    6 points
  6. In what world is Rosario a replacement player? He's not a star, but he has had a pretty good career thus far. I'd likely go year to year with him. I've defended him in other places, but there's a decent chance a replacement may be available at some point this or next year. I doubt Buxton, Berrios, or Sano sign one. Rodgers makes good sense. I could see extending Garver, but given his age, it's likely simply to lock in his arb values and give the team an option year or two. Tyler Duffey's emergence in the pen might make him a candidate as well.
    6 points
  7. As mentioned in the article, Eddie Rosario was the only other Twins player to have been a finalist at his position. I would venture to say that had Kepler not missed the final month of the season, he would have received very strong consideration. Polanco's two-month slump likely put him out of the top three, but he's got a chance to be a perennial contender going forward.
    5 points
  8. Rosario – Absolutely not. One of the prospects will be better than him by 2021. The dollars will be more productive spent elsewhere. Rodgers – I think he is great but I would not extend a RP, at least not yet. Buxton – Sure but I don’t know the two sides could agree at this point. Sano – A year ago I would have said absolutely not. He proved something showing up in better shape and getting back the plate discipline that made him very good early in his career. My problem would be that his body type just does not hold up. Berrios – Sure, if the amount is reasonable. He might have an exaggerated sense of his market value. I would do it now if the number is reasonable. This can always be revisited at a later date.
    5 points
  9. If you wait to figure out which ones are keepers, the value of the non keepers has evaporated. The point of having lots of talent is to make the MLB team World Series contenders. If that means trading them for needed pieces, then that is part of the reason to have had them. We cannot sit on our prospects forever worried that we may give away a valuable piece instead of trading them for a valuable piece we KNOW we need.
    5 points
  10. I think this is right. While I think Kirilloff is a better player than the options in AAA and will surpass them all, it doesn't mean that he's ready for MLB pitching. He won't be the first guy that gets a look for an injury replacement, but I think he does hit his way on to the roster at some point in 2020. I'm not worried about the drop in power; that was clearly related to the wrist injury and he should be fine after a winter to recover fully from the season. he looked great down the stretch again and the only real concern is that he might need to be a bit more patient at the plate. I'd prefer to see his OBP sitting in the .380 range or higher, but he's shown decent enough patience and you can't fault a kid for an aggressive approach when he's hit .362 before! I'm not looking to give Eddie Rosario the bum's rush out of town, but I feel a lot better about our ability to replace him in the lineup with a player like Kirilloff waiting in the wings. I like the fact that he can hit for a high average, keep the Ks reasonable, and still hit for power. Potentially a very dangerous bat with runners on base. I'm pegging him to get an audition in 2020 and get penciled in to start in 2021, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit is way onto the club and then refuse to let go (a la Luis Arraez).
    5 points
  11. How about that his offense has gotten worse each of the last two years? He's a corner OFer, that is NOT a star. That's the exact kind of player a mid market team can't afford to pay a lot of money.
    4 points
  12. They'll make a movie called Robo Ump, where a robotic umpire goes rogue and starts killing batters who complain about the strike zone, but Bio Ump--half man, half machine saves the day by re-inventing the strike zone by making it so small no batter would ever complain. In Robo Ump II the pitchers get their revenge by installing robo pitchers who can throw a 273 mph fastball for a strike every single time. Rob Manfred finally finds the already retired Bio Ump living in a maintenance facility in Olympic Baseball Stadium in Montreal. He agrees to come out of hiding to save baseball once again. Bio Ump realizes he will have to destroy all of the robots and over the next two hours and seven minutes, he does just that and baseball is returned to the brutal sport that it once was.
    4 points
  13. Rightly so, Twins fans are very excited about Brusdar Graterol, the flame-throwing 21-year-old from Venezuela. Graterol was called up to the Twins bullpen last summer and mostly impressed, even touching 102 MPH on his sinker. Graterol will be in the rotation soon enough, and his future partner in crime, the one they call "Jordy Blaze,” is on his way to stardom. Jordan Balazovic was drafted in the 5th round of the 2016 Amateur Draft out of Mississauga, Canada. Balazovic played in eight Gulf Coast League games as a 17-year-old and posted a 1.97 ERA. Balazovic was mediocre at Class A in 2018 with a 3.94 ERA and 7-3 record. While Balazovic had a pedestrian ERA, his peripherals were outstanding. He struck out 78 batters in 61 2/3 innings and allowed only 5 home runs. Balazovic massively improved in 2019 with a 2.18 ERA in four starts at Cedar Rapids with 14.4 K/9. It was quickly realized that Balazovic was ready for the next step. He was promoted to Fort Myers and continued his excellence. In 73 innings, Jordy-B struck out 96 batters and allowed just three home runs. Balazovic was an elite strike thrower, walking just 2.4 batters per nine innings. Balazovic increased his velocity and consistently lived at 95 MPH with his sinker. Balazovic has flashed a plus-slider and at times, a great changeup. With his velocity increasing, his complementary pitches are becoming devastating. Tom Froemming has great analysis here: The 6 foot 5, 215 pound up-and-comer is developing well-deserved praise and attention. Balazovic is ranked as the 76th overall prospect on MLB Pipeline. Balazovic just turned 21, and figures to start next season in Pensacola at class Double-A. With the developmental system instituted by Derek Falvey and company, Jordy Blaze carries unforeseen upside. Image Credits: Creator:Gordon Donovan Credit:Photo: Gordon Donovan Copyright:Photo: Gordon Donovan
    3 points
  14. Two of the three finalists had over 40 HR. Both were also gold glove finalists. The third had roughly the same number of HR and RBI. But of course Marcus Semien is a shortstop. Also a gold glove finalist. Eddie Rosario’s 32 HR barely cracked the top 40 in MLB.
    3 points
  15. Let's treasure every opportunity we get to watch both these men contribute to our pastime.
    3 points
  16. I would never give up that kind of ask for Syndergaard. I don't believe that is what it would have taken to get him though. One of those top 2 guys, maybe a guy in that 7-15 range and a throw in lottery pick most likely would have done it IMO. And I am all for those types of trades if they are available. Young pitcher, amazing stuff, controllable for a couple years. To be clear. I also don't trade our very top guys unless the talent you bring back is also high end. Marcus Stroman. Yep, I think beating the offer made that ultimately landed him wouldn't have hurt us too bad. That said, this type of guy isn't someone I'd sell the farm for, and he most definitely is not worth someone of the caliber of any of our top 3 prospects.
    3 points
  17. If he doesn't debut this year, he moves from elite prospect to good prospect. (assuming he's healthy all year).
    3 points
  18. So, they switch to Budweiser's recipe. Problem solved.
    3 points
  19. The problem with Rosario is his defense just doesn't look like it's going to be very good going forward (two of the last three years his defensive runs saved/total zone rating metrics have put his dWAR into the tank) and with his plate discipline collapsing again he's become a decent player, not a cornerstone. If he could add one more BB per week and get his defense back to par, sure he's a plus starter. But the odds of his defense improving with his speed declining aren't great and he's had more years where he's a pure hacker at the plate than not. He's not a replacement level player, but he was a below average starter and there's legitimate reason to be concerned he's trending in the wrong direction. Much as I think relievers can be pretty fungible from year to year, Taylor Rogers is right in his prime. He looks like a perfect candidate to one of those old school "buy out the arbitration years for cost certainty" deals and maybe tack on one extra year. Rogers gets security and doesn't have to go through arbitration, the Twins get cost certainty and don't have to go through arbitration (and maybe another year of team control) and everyone is happy. I'd try for an extension with Sano; even if he can't stick at 3B long term, there's no question that he can play there for at least the next couple of seasons; 1B could be open by then, DH will almost certainly be open after Cruz's contract ends and his power absolutely plays. Yes, there are going to be big K stretches, but come one: the power plays. Sano isn't a juiced ball guy, he hits moonshots. He will get the walks, there's plenty of value there and the injury at the start of the season was a fluky thing. Yes, I want him extended; he might hit 50 dingers next year. Buxton...oh, Byron Buxton. Tough one. I love the guy, his D is amazing and it looked like he was figuring some things out at the plate. The health is a HUGE concern. I suspect he won't go for an extension because he'd be buying low on himself and I don't think his representation would advise it or he would accept it. It's worth exploring, but I don't see him accepting a deal that's based on his actual performance and with his health concerns and lack of MLB track record as a hitter, so I don't see an agreement. Berrios: absolutely extend him. He's a #1 starter in my mind (are there 20 starters out there you'd take over Jose Berrios?) and is a terrific anchor for the rotation. He makes his starts, he eats up innings, he gets Ks and is a tough pitcher. I want him in the rotation for the next 5 years minimum. Hopefully they can get it done, but he seems awfully willing to bet on himself.
    3 points
  20. It takes two to tango: Berrios and Rosario were offered and rejected extensions the last two offseasons...
    3 points
  21. #1 Berrios: So much talent and so much potential. People forget how young he still is. Home grown, power arms with #1 potential are rare. #2 Sano: People also forget how young he is as well. While we can debate endlessly, and have, as to his defensive merits at 3B, or how long he can stay there, his bat PLAYS! #3 Buxton: Healthy all of last season, I'd have him #2. Does he bet on himself still being the next Mays, Griffey Jr or Trout? Or does he view career/life in a more pragmatic fashion and realize he may be better off with guaranteed money on a still good deal vs looking/hoping for some mega contract? #4 Rogers: Guy is fantastic and might even get better. But with control for a few more years, I'd hold off until at least next season. There is just no need to rush. #5 Rosario: I am a HUGE Rosario fan. I also agree some of the defensive numbers and opinions don't accurately reflect his full ability. I also object that his production is somehow easily replaceable. Production is production. The one thing that has held him back, slightly, is a couple of injuries that slowed him a bit. I really want him around. But let's be honest, unless moved, Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker and Raley are all 4 really, really interesting bats that could be ready over the next year plus. Just don't think I'd extend him at this point. But I sure wouldn't be disappointed if they did.
    2 points
  22. Look, I like Rosario but there simply no way you can look at his numbers as being "MVP candidate numbers". Mike Trout had 1/3 more HR in roughly the same amount of games with nearly 140 additional points in OBP and nearly 150 pts in SLG%. (while playing far superior defense at a much tougher position) That's an MVP season...and there's decent odds he loses out this year to Bregman. Rosario wasn't even one of the top three hitters on his own team this year, even taking defense completely out of it. He's a useful player, has at times been a good player, and the totality of his contributions (including staying healthy, which is a valuable skill) have been good for the Twins but there's simply no way he's an MVP candidate.
    2 points
  23. Well deserved for Cruz and Garver! I suspect Polanco and Kepler were also in the running! I already can’t wait for 2020!
    2 points
  24. Nice approach, but who will you target, and for the real good ones, they other club want plenty. Are you willing to trade both Lewis and Kirloff, because that is the ask.
    2 points
  25. well... 0 fWAR = replacement player... 1.2 is above that.. and yes I know that a replacement player isn't exactly 0. I also know said player is somewhat mythical. We had no one in our system this year that would have out produced Eddie.
    2 points
  26. And that is also why when someone comes a callin for one of those prospects and is willing to give up something of value for them, you don't clench them with such a tight fist. I like Rosario and feel he should be kept here until he reaches free agency. That said, he is pretty much Jacque Jones and I kind of feel he should be treated the same way Jacque was. Pay him what he's worth when he's here, but when its time to part way, its time.
    2 points
  27. But there are only two free agent aces on the market, neither likely to be wearing a Twins uniform.
    2 points
  28. Berrios is probably the one where I might feel really motivated to get something done. I tend to think that his career is going to be fairly Radke-esk, but hopefully productive for longer. By which I mean, very good, de facto #1 starter on the team, but never quite getting to that national ace level as one of the best pitchers in the game. But I also tend to forget how young he still is given how many innings he's already pitched with the Twins. If they don't work out an extension, he's going to be just 28 when he does hit the free agent market in a couple of years (younger than anyone this year), in which case he'll be in line for a really big contract. Probably not necessarily the biggest AAV, but some team might easily think about going in on an 8 year deal for him. It'd be nice to be able to lock him up for a few of those years where he's still in the middle of his prime, but it will probably also incentivise his side to drive a hard bargain, so I don't see them getting as incredible deals as they did for Kepler and Polanco.
    2 points
  29. If that’s the case. I don’t advocate immediate implementation. However, I do advocate priority attention to the improvement of a system for implication as soon as possible. LOL... I’m sick of pitch framing stats.
    2 points
  30. That's one of my problem's with the current system however, it shouldn't be a strike to begin with. We all seem to not recognize as well, that these systems are recent technologies. Quite frankly, I don't believe they are accurate enough to be employed in the manner people want them to be. Rob Manfred has even said the technology has a larger margin of error than they get with human umps making the calls.
    2 points
  31. Yeah, we're in agreement. I think there's this misconception out there that prospect-lovers like me believe prospects like Lewis should always automatically be off-limits, and that's not the case, for me or IMO for Falvey. Rumors were flying about Syndergaard, a borderline Ace in the minds of some, becoming available. True or not, it was rumored they asked for both Lewis and Kirilloff, and a number of commenters thought that would be a smart trade for the Twins. I can see that side, although I think it can be clouded by our frustration and desire for a WS experience. I also see the side that says Lewis and Kirilloff represent huge upgrades at two positions for years to come, with one of them projected to become a superstar, and therefore are necessary, not surplus. Falvey was criticized for failing to outbid NYM for Stroman. TOR received two pitching prospects, a 1st and 2nd rounder, who now rank as their 4th and 5th best prospects. A comparable offer from the Twins would probably have been Duran and Balazovic. I suppose many might see that as a good trade-off. I can see and tend to be inclined toward the argument that, given the fleeting nature of pitching performances and the difficulty with finding front end talent, a club would really have to have great confidence that the acquisition would secure a long run in the postseason and be a big upgrade on the current options (Pineda and Gibson at the time). Two sides to the argument, surely. IMO, Falvey is attuned to all of this and is willing to pull the trigger under what he regards as favorable circumstances.
    2 points
  32. 2 points
  33. Thanks and I agree with most of what you say as well. I just am not of the belief that there should be players or prospects that are off limits when it comes to improving a team such as this that has a real chance with a roster full of young talented ballplayers. If that means as Ace comes at the hand of trading one of our top 3 guys, then do it as long as you have someone on your MLB roster already manning their position.
    2 points
  34. Well, that's the narrative. I don't think Boras supplies independently verifiable data that lets us conclude this.
    2 points
  35. Cole will sign the most lucrative contract offered to him. Period. That's what Boras clients do.
    2 points
  36. Our 5-10 ranked prospects in our system would be worth a fair amount IMO. Packaged up, there is no doubt in my mind they could bring back a player in the mold of Chris Archer, or someone of that stature. I don't believe trading these type of guys is a good idea all the time. Far from it. But when you are in the position the Twins find themselves in now. Young team/lineup on cheap deal, ready to contend, minor league full of talent, I think it's time to use a few of them to add those missing pieces and attempt to take things all the way. Will it be risky? Sure, of course it is. That said, if you see your team as that true contender and have that chance, it only comes around once every 10 years or so as we have seen by following this club. Just go ahead and go for it. If you have to move some of your veterans in a few years to re-stock, then by all means go ahead. The time is now though, the iron is hot. Let's not waste this chance.
    2 points
  37. I would assume he will start the season in AAA after playing 94 games last year in AA. In all honesty, if he starts in AAA, he's potentially an injury away from being called up. If he's healthy going into next season and gets off to a good start I see no reason not to call him up when an opportunity arises.
    2 points
  38. I think there's something to be said about his track record through the minors and how he finished the season.
    2 points
  39. Because of his struggles in 2019, I'd have to imagine that he will start 2020 in the minors unless he just blows the team away in spring training. But even if that happens, where is there room for him in the line up if we have Rosario and Cron back? I think we see him up in September if he has proven that he is ready for the call.
    2 points
  40. Because he isn’t a FA until after 2023. He will turn 33 before the start of the 2024 season. Maybe you lock up salary for his arb years. But I sure wouldn’t extend him beyond 2023. And, of course, right now he is at peak value so the Twins have little to lose by waiting.
    2 points
  41. I wouldn't mind seeing extensions for any of those layers with exception of Rosario. Granted I love Rosario passion but the lack of discipline and the fact we have some young guys ready for that spot it seems like it would be a mistake to extend him at this point. I hope the Twins can find a way to get a couple more extensions done this year. Berrios would be key as hanging onto pitching is always important. If Sano has finally put things together I would love to have him an extra a year or two. Same with Buxton.
    2 points
  42. Robot HP umpiring will be a massive mistake. I'm not even convinced it will actually improve ball and strike calling.
    2 points
  43. The NFL also replays whether balls are catches, or ground assisted. Or whether both feet touched down inside the line? And you still cannot get total agreement on some of those calls. I dont know is some of the pro Robo crowd are expecting controversy to end due to electronic balls and strikes. If so, they will be sorely disappointed.
    2 points
  44. 10 years after they install robo-umps we will have forgotten why we ever worried about it. It will be natural and organic and "no big deal".
    2 points
  45. Right now is the Twins' Perfect Storm Opportunity. Attendance at Target Field jumped to nearly 2.3M, up from 1.96M in 2018, with an average ticket cost of $37.80. Tag on an extra $10/person between concessions and merch (which is probably low), and the Twins brought in $109.6M from their 81 home games last year. The Twins FSN deal runs 4 more years (through 2023) at around $40M a year, which means last year, the Twins already had almost $150M in revenue before any ads, radio rights, or MLB funds were distributed. Now is the time for the Twins to make their move, shed the reputation of not spending, and the rewards they can reap will be massive. Imagine if the Twins can move their average attendance from just over 28k a game to 35k a game. Imagine if the average spend per attendee moves to $55 instead of $48. Target Field would now be worth $156M all on it's own. Now imagine the increased ratings FSN gets with the increased interest, and perhaps the next contract puts the Twins in the Billion club for local broadcast--the Cardinals current deal could be a template (as a team in a smaller market than the Twin Cities, but probably more popular in the St Louis market), which is 15 years and $1B. Thats another $67M in annual revenue, putting the Twins at $223M before radio, marketing, revenue distribution from MLB, or home playoff games (with the likelihood of full stadiums and dramatically increased ticket prices--say an average spend of $160 between tickets, concessions, and merch--a home playoff game is worth $5M to $6M easily), the Twins could definitely get to $300M in revenue annually. How do the Twins achieve these growth numbers? Exceed the 50% of revenue on payroll rule, and do what it takes to sign both Cole and Rendon this winter. Offer Rendon 7 years and $225M, and Cole 7 years and $250M. Give them both opt outs after 5 years to sweeten the incentive to come to Minnesota; this will accomplish a number of things. Fans will go insane. When the Phillies signed Bryce Harper, they sold 100k extra tickets. The reaction from Twins fans will assuredly exceed that. That reaction is what the Twins would be counting on to drive the increased revenue numbers I detailed above. It makes extreme baseball sense from the pitching side. A top 3 rotation of Cole, Berrios, and Odo can compete in the playoffs. If Graterol takes off, look out. Plus, with all the prospects still in the minors, the Twins could easily flip some combination of Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Gordon, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Duran, or Alcala and still be able to trade for a 4th starter--say Lewis, Balazovic, and Alcala for Syndergaard? It makes extreme baseball sense from the lineup side too. If MLB truly does "de-juice" the baseball, this Twins team could use some extra OBP. Imagine a line-up of Arraez, Rendon, Cruz, Kepler, Sano, Garver, Polanco, Rosario, and Buxton (ideally, the Twins would trade Rosario, and let Cave/Wade play until Kiriloff or Larnach is ready). That is a deadly lineup, not to mention moving Sano to first vastly improves your infield defense, while barely downgrading your defense at first. The cost actually isn't even that bad. In this scenario, the Twins free up anything they would have to pay Cron (MLBTR projects $7.7M). Clear Rosario's projected $8.9M, and you're already more than a quarter of the way to Rendon and Cole's contracts--$16.6M out of $68M. The Twins would be at $142M in payroll, while still needing to pay Arraez, Cave, Wade, a backup catcher, 3 to 4 guys in the bullpen, and 2 starters. All of that should be doable for $20M, unless you are trading for a 4th starter/bringing back Pineda. While that might make extensions more difficult, you also free up $21M next year with Cruz and Marwin off the books; the Twins could decide to lock in Buxton and Sano this offseason for $20M a year between the two of them for sure if they really wanted, and still not go too much past $160M.Will the dream of Cole/Rendon happen? I'm sure it won't. But if the Twins want to change everything, it is a completely feasible way to do it.
    2 points
  46. I hate the idea of robot umpires, but I absolutely believe that the human umpires need to be held to a higher standard. As for the ABS system, as your Arizona Fall League recapper, the article where Lewis talks about it paints it in a somewhat positive light, but that was not at all the consensus from players and coaches in the league. There are several videos you can find where it's clear the system is not consistent with what we know balls and strikes as today. Here's one example that I don't think is getting called a strike with a human, and shouldn't be: There's another specific one I can't find at the moment, where the camera is from behind the plate. The catcher backhands the ball in the dirt on the outside half, you see the batter step back out of the box knowing it was a ball, and the pitcher reacting in a frustrated with himself that he missed his spot fashion, and THEN the umpire steps up out of his crouch to ring him up. The hitter looks exasperated, hangs his head and walks back to dugout, while the pitcher basically sulks off the mound feeling sorry for him, obviously not feeling good about what just happened. Edit: Found it (is in the linked Baseball America article): This is where Gameday's Trackman had that pitch: The problem as I see it now, is how they utilize the strikezone. Basically if the ball clips any part of it's electronically diagrammed zone, it's a strike. From seeing what does get called, it's clear this is currently too big. Big time 12-6 curveballs (can think of a few I saw from Shane Baz) that hit the dirt were getting called, because they clip the bottom of the front side of this zone. That's not a pitch hitters can hit, and has never been a strike. Now I don't know if the diagrammed zone is a cube around the plate or a plane at some point of it, but where this is and/or it's size needs to be seriously fine tuned and vetted in much stricter fashion than what they're doing now before it's viable. You will hate robot umpires more than the human ones in its current fashion.
    2 points
  47. Remember "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain"? How about "Cole, Berrios and Odo and pray for snow".
    2 points
  48. I'm no expert in cartography or the charting of waters, but I suspect that $140M looks eerily similar to $130M, in terms of decision-making. Get to $200M and I'll go along with "Here Be Dragons".
    2 points
  49. Going into the offseason the Minnesota Twins are positioned knowing exactly what they need to add. With four openings in the starting rotation, pitching is going to be at the forefront. When the snow and ice thaw before next spring, how Rocco Baldelli’s club enters the 2020 season will largely depend on the receipt they carry to Fort Myers.Coming into last season Minnesota took a step backward in the payroll department. After being just shy of $130 million in 2017, they began 2018 with a $114 million tab suggesting that the next step was largely reliant on seeing what they then had. We are now in a position, for the first time in nearly a decade, that the Minnesota Twins know exactly what they have. This organization has a forward-thinking front office that has hired an infrastructure designed to push development. They have a manager capable of getting execution at the highest level. They have a prospect stream filled with both quality and quantity. Maybe most important, they are division winners with a clear path to opportunity both immediately and into the future. It is in that perfect storm that you can adequately gripe about payroll needing to be where revenues suggest it should be. Now let’s apply this to actual commodities and what the dollars represent. Despite making a silly suggestion that Zack Greinke didn’t win the Astros a World Series, the reality is that the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals played on the biggest stage because they both employed three pitchers that could trump virtually any competition. The Twins hit a boatload of bombas in 2019, and the lineup will continue to play, but the rotation must be filled with arms capable of competing against the upper echelon. For the first time in franchise history the Twins have handed out a qualifying offer (there was an argument to be made that a second could have been made) insuring Jake Odorizzi will agree to nothing worse than a one-year, $17.8 million deal. That’d be a strong start to free agency for Minnesota, but if he rejects the offer in the next nine days, working out a long-term deal with the help of draft pick compensation warding off other suitors would be a fine result as well. Different publications have tied Minnesota to a handful of options, but there have been suggestions of arms starting with Bumgarner and Wheeler, and trickling down from there. Although Falvey needs to be a player on the Cole and Strasburg market, they both could very well have more exciting destinations in play. Regardless of how the four rotation spots are accounted for, a final tally of something near $70 million should be enough to create a strong group. If Minnesota can’t allocate all their funds to the pitching market, then supplementing with an offensive addition is hardly an egregious ask. Holding back some of the discretionary dollars a year ago made some sense but making sure every effort possible is made for 2020 and beyond now should be in all systems go mode. There are more than a few ways for the Twins to tack on significant money while avoiding risk and poor contracts, and this is their opportunity to do it. $140 million would be a bit north of $10 million into the uncharted waters territory. While $135 million is a nice bump from 2019, the $140MM mark would likely land them just outside of the top 10. At this stage of the cycle Minnesota could comfortably be closer to $150MM than $130MM and things would be just fine. No matter how they get there though, the training wheels need to come off this time around. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. More from Twins Daily 2020 Offseason Handbook Available Now No Qualifying Offer? No Option? These 4 Players Could Interest the Twins 8 Players the Twins Need to Add to the 40-Man Roster Click here to view the article
    1 point
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