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  1. drjim

    drjim

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  2. jimmer

    jimmer

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  3. ashbury

    ashbury

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  4. nicksaviking

    nicksaviking

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Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/24/2017 in all areas

  1. I'm thankful for Twins Daily, which has such great Twins talk, all year round!
    6 points
  2. Catch 22 You won't know that the Twins are a major WS contender until they have some starting pitching. This team is going nowhere significant until the acquire some starting pitching.
    5 points
  3. As a die hard Twins fan, I am very thankful for Twins Daily. Through Twins Daily I am connected to other Twins' fans, even though I live 1,120 miles away in North Carolina and have no local publications which write anything about the Twins. I felt some connection with Twins' fans through MLB.com...but MLB.com lacked the thoughtful analyses of TD and has a rough internet edge to it. TD feels more like a family to me. I have several "families". So this Thanksgiving, in addition to my family here in North Carolina and Maryland, and those who have passed, my work family at my law office, and my long ago army buddies who served with me in and along the Korean DMZ, I have added an additional family to be thankful for...I am thankful for my Twins Daily family. Thank you and happy Thanksgiving.
    5 points
  4. I am easily in the lower 5 percentile on this site when it comes to,stats. But using a local player as an example tells me this. Players do not operate in a vacuum. I cannot believe that Byron Buxtons value is the same for some other teams, for example Cleveland, as it was for the Twins. The Twins are still suffering from the hangover that PTC produces. They need an elite OF to run down some of those PTC pitches, that are contacted too well. And with the teams traditional placing at or near the bottom of the team SO lists, Buxton is that guy. On a team with a significantly higher SO ratio, some of his value is lost when the catcher is regularly throwing the ball to the third baseman. So to me, analysis of a players value to a team has to include factors that are frankly outside that players control. I won't try and say quantifying it is easy, it's not. But I can't see accurate analysis of a single players value to a team, without including the idiosyncrasies of that team.
    4 points
  5. Someone like Gerrit Cole is probably going to cost you Gordon plus a top pitching prospect like Gonsalves, Romero or Littell. Add in another lower level piece or two with a decent ceiling. Gets expensive but you can't win without pitching.
    4 points
  6. Agreed with others thankful for TD and the mods. Thankful for the upcoming payroll flexibility and hopeful Falvine will make good use of it.
    4 points
  7. I too have always felt that Mauer hit into too many double plays. But for whatever reason, it seemed to be less this year. So I looked it up. He actually grounded into 17 double plays this year. That's about one every ten days...which really isn't a lot at all.
    4 points
  8. Agree with jimmer and Linus. Very glad to see Joe with a 3.4 WAR rather than the 1 or 2 the last few years. I'm thankful we don't have the Ghost of Albert Pujols signed for four more years at an average salary of $28.5 million (plus a $10 million personal services contract after the baseball contract expires).
    4 points
  9. Instead of being thankful for Mauer's contract soon coming off the books, which hasn't hindered us in any way except maybe stopping us from signing two or three more mediocre pitchers (because no way would they have signed one great player in FA with that money), I am thankful for him having a very good season in regards to OBP and especially defense (and I'm sure the rest of the IFs, as well as the pitchers, feel the same way about his defense.)
    4 points
  10. My complaints about WAR were always based on 1. converting defense anf baserunning to runs, and 2. the flaws in the idea of the replacement player. But tying actual team wins to the sum of individual players WAR would seem to be an obvious desire, at least as measuring actual production is concerned.
    3 points
  11. I've never minded a guy leading the league in double plays. It's an opportunity thing -- runners on base and hard contact are both good things, but in combination they're going to lead to GIDPs. They're also going to lead to a lot of 1st and 3rds. The career leaders are Pujols, Ripken, Pudge, Aaron, and Yaz, by the way. That wouldn't be bad company to be in. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/GIDP_career.shtml
    3 points
  12. Yeah, a little less than 3% of his PAs this year (and his career) And, of course, part of that is that he makes so much contact, so when players are on base in front of him, it can happen. Makes a player like him more susceptible. Probably be better if he struck out more, but the complaints would shift to that instead. BTW, recently, an AL MVP led the league in GiDP.
    3 points
  13. I’m thankful that Eddie Rosario turned a corner in 2017. Obviously, Buxton and Sano are exciting to watch. But Eddie is right there with them as one of the most exciting players in the game. He’s become a fearless, big time hitter, and a key piece in the lineup. I look forward to big hits, like his dinger against the Yankees, for many years to come.
    3 points
  14. Recent reports have suggested that the Twins may be interested in using the trade market to handle some roster moves this winter. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reported that Minnesota has called on names like Gerrit Cole and Jake Odorizzi. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of KSTP noted that he sees it more likely Minnesota will use the trade market to strike a deal. With these reports in mind, what do the Twins have to offer?First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message that they intend to be active in the coming weeks and months. In leaving prospects like Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart and Lewin Diaz unprotected from the Rule 5 draft, they also kept four open spots on the 40-man roster. It stands to reason that those spots could be used on more immediate solutions, and potentially, players with higher ceilings. Suggesting that the Twins have four free agents in mind to take the openings is a bad bet, but the flexibility tells us the ball is rolling. Guys like Cole and Odorizzi aren’t going to come cheap. They’ve had real success at the big league level and remain under team control going forward. There’s no doubt other names are being talked about, and if they are cut from the same cloth, the Twins won’t be able to simply pry away, at low cost, a player or two. Despite the farm system not being what it was a year or two ago, Minnesota actually has a nice stockpile of options to move, so let’s take a look at some of them. The Shortstops: This group may be among the most impressive collections in all of baseball. Both Nick Gordon and Royce Lewis are top 100 prospects, while Wander Javier is going to quickly shoot up prospect lists in the next few months. Add in names like Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez (more of a 2B), and you’ve got a quality collection of talent. If I’m an opposing club, this is a group that provides plenty of intrigue. If I’m the Twins, Lewis is probably the only player that’s off limits. The Arms: Although the Twins need pitching at the big league level, you can bet any deal for a true MLB starter is going to cost a prospect in return. Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are the cream of the Minnesota crop, while Felix Jorge and Brusdar Graterol may be the next men up. The Twins added to the system in the form of names like Enlow, Littell, Leach and Watson over the past year, but it remains an area that any club is looking to build out. Gonsalves appears MLB ready now, and Romero should command a hefty ransom, but an acquisition with a proven track record may be enticing enough to move any of these names. The Bats: If we’re excluding the depth the Twins have in the middle of the infield on the farm, the offensive side of things takes a bit of a dip. Brent Rooker looks like a stud, and should soon be penciled in to big league lineups in Minnesota. Behind him however, things get a bit more uncertain. Diaz could skate through the Rule 5 draft having not played above Single-A, or the club could look to deal him first. Alex Kirilloff is a presence at the plate, but is coming off a lost season due to injury. Travis Blankenhorn looks the part of a sleeper prospect, and he could be joined by LaMonte Wade or 2017 pick Andrew Bechtold. Kirilloff seems like the most expendable asset here given the likelihood he moves the needle for an opposing club, but in this group there likely is not a cornerstone in any potential deal. The Bigs: Should the Twins be targeting major league ready talent, they may find themselves needing to give up some proven commodities as well. On such a young team, that’s a scary proposition, as the vast majority see their prime’s lying ahead of them. Eddie Rosario was a trade candidate prior to his breakout 2017, and Max Kepler may still be despite seeing his value sag. Minnesota could flip Jorge Polanco if there’s more belief in the farm options as well. As a whole however, plucking from this group seems like it could definitely come back to bite the hometown team. No matter what moves the Twins make, there’s no such thing as getting talent without giving it up. Falvey and Levine are going to have to make hard decisions in acquiring players from another organization. While it’s just money on the free agent market, there’s more to be had through a potential trade. Trusting in evaluations of both their internal assets as well as what they’ll be receiving is obviously integral to the process. Personally, I’d prefer to see the Twins dangle some combination built around Gordon or Kirilloff, maybe even getting interesting with international bonus money used. While doling out big paydays has become the norm, finding competitive advantages will always need to be the Twins plan of attack. The hot stove is warming up, and I’d be surprised if we don’t hear some of these scenarios begin to be speculated upon. Click here to view the article
    2 points
  15. James' and Fangraph's pieces were a lot of fun. In my book, no one has to be right or wrong as long as everyone realizes that more information and new ways to understand it are a benefit to all. That's not solely related to baseball analytics either I guess.
    2 points
  16. Meh. Bill James keeps trying to peddle his Win Shares in new clothing. Didn't care much for it when it came out (shrouded in proprietary secrecy at that), still don't. Ironically, long ago he was part of the vanguard pointing out that winning close games wasn't a particularly repeatable skill for teams, from one year to the next - best to just score lots of runs over the course of a season and try to not give up a lot, and let the W-L chips fall where they may. Now he's in the camp of "well, those extra wins didn't just come out of thin air, now did they?" I'm not in favor of rewriting history, and for subjective awards like MVP I'm fine with giving weight to the sheer will and determination and moxie that obviously accounted for Houston's 101 wins, versus the Yankees' lack of same accounting for their 91 wins. I just think James carries it too far, and he remains too defensive about his pet stat. He can't seem to do it without tearing down others' work, and his claim that he's held his tongue all these years doesn't pass muster for me - he's been saying this on his paywall-protected website for years, to the approving murmurs of his acolytes there.
    2 points
  17. Interesting read, thanks for sharing. I've always thought of WAR as a (flawed) shorthand for ballparking a guy's value. It bothered me when it reached the point where many MVP arguments were more or less being based on that metric alone.
    2 points
  18. As always, Bill James expresses his thoughts well. Really appreciate that guy. Edit: also enjoyed the Killebrew reference.
    2 points
  19. I totally concur, except when my incisive cutting-edge posts get deleted. ;-)
    2 points
  20. I agree with everyone saying thanks to Twins Daily. We have a good group over here. I also agree that #5 reads a bit dubiously. It's not accurate that the Mauer contract sank the franchise by making it impossible to address other issues.
    2 points
  21. Personally, I'd like to keep Gonsalves, Thorpe no matter what, (just the rarity of a quality LHSP prospect with real potential). Very much like to keep Rooker and Lewis. Otherwise, I'm pretty much OK on anyone else to be included in trades. Sign Dozier and losing Gordon doesn't hurt so much, and there is depth. But I have to say, as good as Gordon looks, I'm not so sure some of the younger SS prospects in the system don't look even better. If I'm the other team, I may be more intrigued by one of those guys.
    2 points
  22. Homers, especially Gopher football fans, have never liked him. Mid-90s struck me as a fertile time for ripping local local sports teams, depending on your opinion of Denny Green. He always struck me as the most savage of critics, because he is not a cartoon about it, but also a great read when there is success, especially unexpected success. Recently I have appreciated his focus on local sports, especially Gopher women's sports, (He has a little bit of a history with women's sports, to put it mildly). And at his heart he's a baseball and Gopher guy, which are my favorite sports to follow too.
    2 points
  23. As a left coast out of towner, I too am grateful for Twins Daily and Twinkie Town for helping me keep in touch with my team.
    2 points
  24. Thanks for this article! I was going to go crazy if I had to read another article talking about the second- or third-tier free agents the Twins should target. You know, because the Twins and free agency have produced such great things these past years. Look at the Royals. Look at the Cubs. Look at the Astros. Sure, the past 3 World Series champs had a lot of home-grown talent. But their front offices also utilized the stock piles of prospects their teams built with high draft picks to trade for players to round off their teams.
    2 points
  25. Happy Thanksgiving to one and all. And a special thank you to the mods for keeping things in check and organizing the Game threads.
    2 points
  26. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone at here at TD. Fully concur with the comments above...among many things in my life to be thankful for, TD is certainly one to include. Thanks everyone!
    2 points
  27. Yes, yes, yes, and yes. My response was going to be: 6. TwinsDaily. It's so much more fun to waste time on TwinsDaily than to watch the Ken Burns "Baseball" series on MLB Network for the umpteenth time. Thanks, owners, moderators, writers, readers, commenters...
    2 points
  28. well said... and TD is less dysfunctional than my real family...
    2 points
  29. I am just thankful that we have so many interesting storylines to follow - it makes the hot stove a lot more fun. I decided a long time ago to stop reading, writing, thinking about players salaries. Since i will not make as much in my life as the average 5 year major leaguer makes in one the money means nothing. I cannot relate. I just see money coming in and either going to the rich owner or making a player rich. I will take the player. Now to get back to baseball. The youth movement of the Twins is the most exciting thing I have seen in decades and I love it. The last time we had talent like this they were named Oliva, Killebrew, Allison, Versailles, Hall, Battey, Pascual, Kaat, and Perry. I love the excitement and the stories this generates.
    2 points
  30. I would love to see the twins extend Mauer 1 or 2 years for a reasonable amount and have him splitting time with Rooker soon.
    2 points
  31. This. Plus Joe is still a pretty good player as he moves towards the end of his contract. Most of the mega deals involve several years at the end where the player is washed up.
    2 points
  32. This Thanksgiving I am thankful that Falvine could not trade Dozier. Twins fans are blessed to watch him daily. Now, sign Doz to an extension.
    2 points
  33. Joining the modern era in terms of analytics, scouting, player development, coaching and hopefully physical and mental care for players. And a lot less criticism of players through the media.
    2 points
  34. Shots fired from Bill James: https://www.billjamesonline.com/judge_and_altuve/
    1 point
  35. Read this story in full on Zone Coverage here. It’s a play as old as the game itself, and maybe that’s because the DH didn’t always exist. It’s the bunt, a time-honored tradition that is being phased out of the game more and more every year. Fangraphs has sacrifice bunt totals dating back to 1895, and according to their database, the 925 sacrifice bunts laid down by teams in 2017 was the second-lowest figure in MLB history. Only the 1900 season (806 bunts) featured fewer, and there were only eight teams back then. So yeah, the bunt is dying a slow death. At a glance, the Twins were in the middle of the pack as far as bunts were concerned, checking in 17th among 30 MLB teams with 26 sacrifices in 2017. That’s a deceptive number, though; flip the dial to only AL teams, and only two teams -- the White Sox and Rangers -- bunted more often than the Twins. That’s more problematic. Subtracting NL teams -- yay, pitchers hitting! -- from that figure shows how much more the Twins were devoted to bunting than their junior circuit contemporaries. To frame up how different the game is bunts-wise, consider this: Twins bunts as a percentage of MLB on the whole: 2.8 percent (one team = 3.3 percent of MLB) Twins bunts as a percentage of AL on the whole: 9.6 percent (one team = 6.7 percent of AL) As you can see, bunting is severely shifted toward the NL, and the Twins are well above the average mark of their AL contemporaries. The White Sox offense was absolutely dreadful in 2017, scoring 109 fewer runs than the Twins while the team lost more games than every team in the AL but the Detroit Tigers. The Rangers were in the thick of the race for much of the season despite Adrian Beltre missing time due to injury and a patchwork rotation, and scored just 16 fewer runs than the Twins while winning 78 games to Minnesota’s 85. So maybe everything said in this space will also apply to the Rangers -- we’ll see. Here’s one thing that stands out, and it is glaring: no team bunted more than the Twins did with their No. 3 hitters. In fact, according to Baseball Reference, the Twins bunted five times with their third hitter. The rest of the league combined bunted six times with their No. 3 guy -- and no team did so more than once. And according to Parker Hageman of Twins Daily, none of those bunts led to runs. Blech. So what’s the big deal? It’s just giving up an out to move up a base. Doesn’t it make it more likely the team scores a run? Doesn’t it lead to more scoring? Aren’t those basically asking the same question?
    1 point
  36. drjim

    Re-opening the WAR debate

    Seems to me he addresses this in the article. Seems the revisions of statistical analysis is moving (rightly) towards less certainly. I basically agree with your other two points, but I suspect this is the opening salvo of what will be a more public and sustained entrance into the debates.
    1 point
  37. Grateful for a minor league system that had the best combined record and a whole bunch of playoff appearances. And yes, I am including a bunch of 16 and 17 year olds that hit the cover off the ball in the DSL.
    1 point
  38. 1 point
  39. Unlike most of us, Brian keeps a notepad beside his bed and remembers to jot down his fever dreams when he wakes up from them at 3 a.m. With no game threads to start, he has to find other uses for these gems. Man, I wish I had sweet dreams like that one.
    1 point
  40. Of those 13 prospects odds are that no more than 1 - 3 become major league ballplayers, so you are correct. Nice point to bring up. The real point is that this will benefit the teams that played by the rules (like I suspect the Twins did). Leveling the playing field is not a bad thing.
    1 point
  41. When I left the Twin Cities in 1996, I thought Reusse had become something of a punch line. Did his reputation go through a renaissance, or am I just misremembering?
    1 point
  42. Mike Sixel

    Turkey-Day game

    I thought a room of fans was going to die when that kick was blocked
    1 point
  43. I've never seen any of these prospects (1-50) so all I can do is appreciate the list. It's strange though; I definitely end up leaning towards "favorites" based on stats and write ups alone. Thanks for all these lists!
    1 point
  44. I guess my hope is that any overhaul, which may or may not include a draft, would help eliminate the unethical and sometimes dangerous situations that the young Latin players are too often being coerced into. Getting them to the MLB under better and safer circumstances would be my top goal, getting them paid top dollar would be a more distant priority.
    1 point
  45. I would take him in an instant if I was a bad team. Put him in the bullpen and see what his stuff looks like.
    1 point
  46. One more thought: if he’s not selected, he could question his whole baseball career and reconsider playing college football.
    1 point
  47. I hope the Pohlads and the FO don't look at each year's financials as isolated from either the past or the future. Money saved the past few years has been invested somewhere. If the Pohlads believe they can make a better return with the Twins, they will invest it in player contracts. (They have already invested a bit in the FO). IMO, the payroll will depend on who is available through free agency or trade. The Twins might get to $120M+, if the FO believes it is the best investment. It will be less if they can't make the deals. It might also be less if they trade for a player under control, moving assets instead of spending cash. In any case, I suspect they're looking at costs and revenues for the next 3-4 years, not this year alone. For example, what if the Twins sign Cobb? One could argue that they should still sign 2 FA relievers. That would bust the $120M mark but might make sense based on the age of the signed players and any expected revenue increase. Probably won't happen but it is a possibility.
    1 point
  48. Falvey's objective is to build a sustainable, championship-caliber team season after season. People seem to be under the impression that World Series appearances are a given--False. Don't count on the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and other teams folding up when they see what a great process the Twins are following. Even during these future glory years, the Twins will many times find themselves playing for a wild card berth anyway.
    1 point
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