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  • The Twins Playoff Hopes Rely On the Three T's


    Sabir Aden

    Since June 1, no team’s top three relievers have a lower wOBA than the group of Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May.

     

    Approaching their first postseason foray since 2010, no bullpen group, save perhaps the Rays, will face more heavy lifting than this trio. The Twins starting pitching has taken significant blows since June 1.

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today

    In 2015, the Royals pioneered the strategy of five-and-dive starters, and allowed the pen to handle the rest. The merits of relievers now rests in the seventh through ninth innings, and given the Twins recent playoff demons that should bring nightmarish flashbacks.

     

    Bullpens are a focal point of postseason success. In the 2017 wildcard game, Ervin Santana was yanked three innings into his start. Luis Severino, the Yankees starter was also removed on a much shorter hook after just 1/3 of an inning with three runs already allowed. It's no safe assumption a starter will go five innings or 100 pitches.

    Shutdown starters and unhittable closers get all the glory, but the unsung heroes of the past season, such as Josh Hader, are much more valuable than they get credit for.

     

    Trevor May has received his fair share of criticism. Saturday night’s display of pure dominance predicated on fastball command would be a welcomed sight in the postseason. More breaking ball usage and less dependence on a flat changeup could perhaps be enough for May. A much smoother finish with his mechanics, and not leaving as many pitches in the whomping zone of hitters have been helpful for Trevor. Since his bad stretch of home runs he has lost all trust in his curve, which could fuel more good fortune.

     

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    May has had the year of his life in 2019. He had a promising end to his 2018 campaign that saw him flash the truly elite stuff that he flashed as a middling fourth/fifth starter in the dawn of his career. He’s bumped his velocity up considerably, and lately has sliced his pitch assortment, providing a better directive to his mound mindset.

     

    Taylor Rogers might be the most underrated pitcher, perhaps even player, in baseball thanks to his above average fastball and frisbee slider. A bullpen absent the invincible Aroldis Chapman fireball, or the radioactive cutter of Kenley Jansen, or the capital C-declared closer, might be an assembly of relief pitchers as effective, or more so, than any other in baseball.

     

     

    If there was one point of criticism for Rogers, I would point to the curveball and slider blending together. But that in no way detracts from the set of weapons that he has, and that the Twins have, that their playoff success could hinge on.

     

    Tyler Duffey might be the most remarkable story of the entire season for the Twins. He flamed-out as a starter in 2016 and followed with a pair of enigmatic seasons. At the tipping point of his career, he took on a complete overhaul, reinvention and refinement of his mechanics and approach under the tutelage of Wes Johnson.

    Duffey was taught sinkers inside and low, during the Rick Anderson, Neil Allen and Garvin Alston regimes.

     

    Jace Frederick of the Pioneer Press recently wrote an article that delved into Duffey's progress that included some illuminating quotes. Duffey spoke to how different Wes Johnson's mentality is.

     

    “Obviously I had the potential to be good, but it was seeing why I could be, understanding why I could be, and then doing it and repeating was the last piece of that. I think for me, personally, it’s just been trusting the whole plan that’s been set and going with it.

    “Pitching with conviction is the name of the game. Hitters can tell when you’re not convicted in what you’re doing. I think I’m trusting it, I feel good doing it and the results are speaking for themselves.”

     

    “He can be a strikeout guy, and he’s learned that,” Johnson said. “When we started back in spring training, our goal was to strike out more hitters than we ever have. We’re getting there, incrementally. And Tyler is someone you’re seeing make progress really fast.”

     

    The intuitive and tailored recipe for success spearheaded with the ongoing trend of elevating, decelerating and spiking. Fastballs up, sliders and curves down and away, and toggling with the velocity of those breakers has paved the way to a 2.35 ERA and a 1.0 WAR during this 2019 run to the postseason. A truly remarkable achievement for a pitcher once on the bubble.

     

    For the Twins to succeed in the postseason, a strong back-end of the bullpen must complement a competent starting staff. It could be a feasible plan, given that the trio of Trevor May, Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers has arrived and they are here to stay.


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    What about the fact that Duffey never pitches more than one inning and Baldelli never sends him back out after the end of an inning? I don’t think that has happened in this entire scoreless stretch of his (I could be wrong). What’s the reasoning behind that?

     

    I like the idea of condensing the three Ts in the playoffs into the odd games. So games 1,3,5, and 7, you alternated Berrios and Odo to start, but only ask 3 or 4 innings from them, maybe 5 if they’re going really well. Then follow with 1-2 innings each of Duffey, May, and Rogers. The even number games you start Dobnak and whoever else and follow it up with Littel, Graterol, and Romo in the same vein. This way you assure the three Ts are always pitching with rest on the odd games, and it has been shown before by someone they they do way better when pitching with rest, and they can each give you two innings on those days (though that doesn’t work if there is some reason that’s Duffey can’t pitch more than one inning). I think this an advanced approach suitable for the modern age of baseball, if you can do extreme shifts all the time and ignore large portions of the field no reason you can’t put all your eggs in the odd-games baskets in the playoffs. You only need to win the odd games to win the playoffs.

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    What about the fact that Duffey never pitches more than one inning and Baldelli never sends him back out after the end of an inning? I don’t think that has happened in this entire scoreless stretch of his (I could be wrong). What’s the reasoning behind that?

    I like the idea of condensing the three Ts in the playoffs into the odd games. So games 1,3,5, and 7, you alternated Berrios and Odo to start, but only ask 3 or 4 innings from them, maybe 5 if they’re going really well. Then follow with 1-2 innings each of Duffey, May, and Rogers. The even number games you start Dobnak and whoever else and follow it up with Littel, Graterol, and Romo in the same vein. This way you assure the three Ts are always pitching with rest on the odd games, and it has been shown before by someone they they do way better when pitching with rest, and they can each give you two innings on those days (though that doesn’t work if there is some reason that’s Duffey can’t pitch more than one inning). I think this an advanced approach suitable for the modern age of baseball, if you can do extreme shifts all the time and ignore large portions of the field no reason you can’t put all your eggs in the odd-games baskets in the playoffs. You only need to win the odd games to win the playoffs.

    Interesting, very interesting.

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    All the hype preceding sports events is fun; the 2 weeks preceding the Super Bowl being the classic example. Then they actually play the game and all the predictions are out the window. Same here. The plan is fine until it falls apart.

     

    If you even want to call it a plan it should be very simple.

    1) Know that you belong in the playoffs and expect to win every game.

    2) Play loose...the pressure is on the other team.

    3) No matter whether its the 3 Ts or the 3 Stooges-pitchers attack the strike zone.

    4) Just let the game play itself out and execute, execute, execute.

    5) Don't be too smart by half, just play baseball and don't beat yourself.

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    What about the fact that Duffey never pitches more than one inning and Baldelli never sends him back out after the end of an inning? I don’t think that has happened in this entire scoreless stretch of his (I could be wrong). What’s the reasoning behind that?

    Duffey pitched 1.2 innings vs Cleveland on Sep. 14. He also pitched 1.1 innings vs Detroit on Aug. 23 and vs Miami on July 30.

     

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=duffety01&t=p&year=2019

     

    That's less frequent than Rogers, May, or Littell, but Duffey has pitched slightly more often than those guys too (especially Rogers and Littell). It's about the same rate of multi-inning appearances as Romo (who has spanned multiple innings 3 times since we acquired him).

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    A fun, related topic - what has been the best Twins bullpen in the last 20 years...? Could this one be in the conversation?

     

    2002 was pretty good, but had a couple smoke and mirror guys in there like Fiore & Jackson. 2004 was good with Nathan, Rincon, and Romero. 2006 was solid, as was 2010.

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