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  • Young For Their League


    Seth Stohs

    When developing prospect lists, one of many criteria that goes into the thinking is Age-to-Level data. High-ranking prospects are often guys with great tools who are performing at a level where they are very young. If you look near the top of the Top 30 prospect lists that Jeremy, Cody and I put together for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, you’ll see a lot of players who were very young for their level.

    Image courtesy of Linwood Ferguson

    In the Prospect Handbook, there are two pages dedicated to looking at the league average age and performance of hitters and pitchers at each level. Here is what was shown for the Ft. Myers Miracle and the Florida State League.

     

    FT. MYERS MIRACLE (82-57)

     

    · FSL Hitters – 22.6, .257/.325/.371 (.695)

    · Miracle Hitters – 22.4, .261/.339/.383 (.722)

    · FSL Pitchers – 23.2, 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

    · Miracle Pitchers – 23.3, 3.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

     

     

    What does it mean? As you can see, the Miracle hitters and pitchers were, on average, about the same as the league average. They also performed a little better than league average in offense and pitching.

     

    By itself, this information is kind of fun to look at, but more important, it provides perspective. If a 25 year old in the Florida State League hits .300/400/500 (.900), it’s good. But if a 20-year-old hits .275/.350/.400 (.750) in the same league, he is a very good prospect. The 25-year-old could still become a big leaguer, and could even have a solid career. The 20-year-old likely has a higher ceiling.

     

    So, with that bit of background, I thought it would be fun to take a look at which Twins prospects were the youngest at their level. Players that spent time in multiple levels can show up multiple times on this list.

     

    This is not a perfect analysis, but it does give a range. Baseball-Refence.com has a method in which each player plays a season at a certain age. JO Berrios was 19 when he began the season in Ft. Myers. He turned 20 in mid-May, so his 2014 season was considered his age-20 season. As you see above, the average age for a pitcher in the Florida State League was 23.2. So, in this analysis, Berrios was 3.2 years younger than the average pitcher in the Florida State League.

     

    Years Below League Average

     

    2.2 Years: Nick Gordon at Elizabethton

    2.2 Years: Nick Burdi at Ft. Myers

    2.2 Years: Aaron Slegers at Ft. Myers

     

    2.3 Years: Callan Pearce at GCL Twins

     

    2.6 Years: Byron Buxton at Ft. Myers

    2.6 Years: Jorge Polanco at Ft. Myers

    2.6 Years: Ruar Verkerk at GCL Twins

     

    2.9 Years: Trevor May at Rochester

    2.9 Years: Stephen Pryor at Rochester

    2.9 Years: Michael Tonkin at Rochester

    2.9 Years: Aaron Hicks at Rochester (he was 0.7 years younger than the AA Eastern League hitters)

     

    3.0 Years: Stephen Gonsalves at Cedar Rapids

    3.0 Years: Fernando Romero at Cedar Rapids

    3.0 Years: Kohl Stewart at Cedar Rapids

     

    3.2 Years: JO Berrios at Ft. Myers

     

    3.9 Years: Tyler Duffey at Rochester

    3.9 Years: Jason Wheeler at Rochester

    3.9 Years: Oswaldo Arcia at Rochester

     

    4.0 Years: Lewis Thorpe at Cedar Rapids

     

    4.7 Years: Byron Buxton at New Britain

    4.7 Years: Jorge Polanco at New Britain

     

    6.9 Years: JO Berrios at Rochester

     

    You may be asking yourself the very question that I asked myself. Where would Miguel Sano have fit on this list had he been able to play. It would have been his age-21 season. In his time in AA New Britain, he would have been 3.6 years younger than the average player. We can assume he also would have moved up to AAA at some point during the season. He would have been 5.9 years younger than league average.

     

    Here are a few notes about the above:

    • The average age at AAA is pretty high. In the International League, the hitters and the pitchers averaged an age of 26.9. Triple-A isn’t so much about prospects. It’s about guys moving up and down from the big leaguers. It’s about journeymen in the organization to provide depth and help the affiliate win games.
    • JO Berrios was very young for the Florida State League, so when he moved up to New Britain, he was even younger compared to his competition. When he made his final-weekend start with the Red Wings, he was competing against hitters who were about seven years older, and more experienced.
    • Byron Buxton is one of the best prospects in baseball, but notice how quickly Jorge Polanco has moved up the system. Sure, he signed as a 16-year-old two years before Buxton was drafted, but he’s the same age as Buxton and he spent nearly half of his season in New Britain as well. As you know, he became a big leaguer (admittedly out of necessity) at the age of 20.
    • Notice how young were some of those pitchers in Cedar Rapids were. Lewis Thorpe was about four years younger than the average hitter he was facing. Kohl Stewart spent the whole year with the Kernels, and was about three years younger than the competition. Fernando Romero came up at the same time as Thorpe, just a year older. Stephen Gonsalves was promoted for the final month of the Kernels season.
    • I sometimes wonder if people realize just how young Oswaldo Arcia is. Despite a ton of strikeouts, he has shown tremendous power potential. And, he is younger than several players still in the minor leagues who are considered very good prospects.
    • You see a couple of GCL Twins names, Callan Pearce and Ruar Verkerk. When players are signed from the Dominican Republic or Venezuela, they typically spend a year or two or three in the Dominican Summer League. Pearce is from South Africa. Verkerk is from The Netherlands. Players from those countries, Australia, Germany, etc., have to come to the States to play in the GCL and you can better understand why these guys take a little longer to develop.

    So, this article is intended to be informational regarding the Twins minor league system and minor league baseball in general. Age to level of competition is a topic that Cody wrote about often in his 2014 Recaps for each of the 158 players that were profiled in the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015. It also should just help put into perspective player performance and prospect rankings.

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    In your opinion what age is old to be making your MLB debut and still be viewed as a potential longterm star?  The Buxton's and Sano's are the rarity by far for 1 single organization. 

     

    ALL CONSIDERED FAN FAVORITES BY TWINS FAITHFUL

    Hunter was 23 in his first MLB full season (.309 OBP)

    Winfield was 22 in his first full season (took 5 years to hit .300 BA)

    Oliva was 25 in first full season (hit .323 BA)

    Pucket was 24 in his first full season ( 0 HRs and 31 RBI in 128 games)

    Dozier was 26 in his first full season (yet to hit .250 BA)

    Mauer was 20 in his first full season (avg. .400 OBP but never scored 100 -ever)

    Mientkiewicz was 25 in his first full season (hit .229 BA)

    Carew was 21 and hit the ground running (ROY)

     

    Most of these high level prospects took a few seasons at the Big Boy Level to find their groove.  Most were not the Buxton's and Sano's and Polanco's of today.  Maybe patience isn't that bad of a thing.  We loved the guys above for all they did and how they played the game the right way.   When they arrive at whatever age, I trust it will be the right age for everyone involved (Fans and Players alike).

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    In your opinion what age is old to be making your MLB debut and still be viewed as a potential longterm star?  The Buxton's and Sano's are the rarity by far for 1 single organization. 

     

    ALL CONSIDERED FAN FAVORITES BY TWINS FAITHFUL

    Hunter was 23 in his first MLB full season (.309 OBP)

    Winfield was 22 in his first full season (took 5 years to hit .300 BA)

    Oliva was 25 in first full season (hit .323 BA)

    Pucket was 24 in his first full season ( 0 HRs and 31 RBI in 128 games)

    Dozier was 26 in his first full season (yet to hit .250 BA)

    Mauer was 20 in his first full season (avg. .400 OBP but never scored 100 -ever)

    Mientkiewicz was 25 in his first full season (hit .229 BA)

    Carew was 21 and hit the ground running (ROY)

     

    Most of these high level prospects took a few seasons at the Big Boy Level to find their groove.  Most were not the Buxton's and Sano's and Polanco's of today.  Maybe patience isn't that bad of a thing.  We loved the guys above for all they did and how they played the game the right way.   When they arrive at whatever age, I trust it will be the right age for everyone involved (Fans and Players alike).

     

     

    It's NEVER too old to make a major league debut. Ask Chris Colabello, Andrew Albers, Chris Coste, Chris Heintz. 

     

    Now, to have a Hall of Fame career, of course you'll need to be up by the time you're 24 (and then be lucky enough to not only be really good, but do it for at least a dozen years). Buxton and Sano (should they get up at 21 and 22 - and for sure if they'd been up at 20 and 21) are rarities. I'm guessing a very small percentage of big leaguers made their debut at 20 or less. Think about it, anyone that went to college for even three years will almost automatically be 23 when they get called up AT THE EARLIEST. Winfield is an exception to that. 

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    In your opinion what age is old to be making your MLB debut and still be viewed as a potential longterm star?  The Buxton's and Sano's are the rarity by far for 1 single organization. 

     

    ALL CONSIDERED FAN FAVORITES BY TWINS FAITHFUL

    Hunter was 23 in his first MLB full season (.309 OBP)

    Winfield was 22 in his first full season (took 5 years to hit .300 BA)

    Oliva was 25 in first full season (hit .323 BA)

    Pucket was 24 in his first full season ( 0 HRs and 31 RBI in 128 games)

    Dozier was 26 in his first full season (yet to hit .250 BA)

    Mauer was 20 in his first full season (avg. .400 OBP but never scored 100 -ever)

    Mientkiewicz was 25 in his first full season (hit .229 BA)

    Carew was 21 and hit the ground running (ROY)

     

    Most of these high level prospects took a few seasons at the Big Boy Level to find their groove.  Most were not the Buxton's and Sano's and Polanco's of today.  Maybe patience isn't that bad of a thing.  We loved the guys above for all they did and how they played the game the right way.   When they arrive at whatever age, I trust it will be the right age for everyone involved (Fans and Players alike).

    Interesting fact on Winfield. . he actually played about half the season the year before at age 21.  Participated for the Gophers in the College World Series, was drafted 4th overall by the Padres, debuted two weeks later for them, and I don't beleive that he ever played a day in the minor leagues, not even on a rehab assignment.

     

    He was one of only three players ever drafted by three sports, NFL, NBA and ABA, and MLB.  Of course he was destined to play baseball because he was born in St. Paul on the day Bobby Thompson hit the "Shot heard round the World".

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    It seems to me that players should be called up when they're mentally and physically prepared for the major leagues.

     

    Lightfoot789, you could add Blyleven (19 years old) and Hrbek (21) to the list. Also, add two excellent players who had their careers cut short: Lyman Bostock (24) and John Castino (24).

     

    KGB, there's a difference between "call-ups" and potential stars. Have the Twins left any potential stars languishing in the minors?  

     

    We have all seen that the Twins haven't been shy about calling up young hitters the last two years. We will see more young hitters in the next 18 months.

     

    Our best pitching prospects have been delayed by injuries (Meyers and Gibson). I suspect we will see pitchers like Berrios, Burdi and Reed get to the majors before they're 25 years old in the near future.

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    As usual Seth good article. It certainly plays well for the future with all the young talent. One problem, being able to retain all this talent. Of course some of that will be taken care of by their progression or lack thereof. Btw, where does Meyer fail?

     

    Thant also to, KGB, great link.

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    It seems to me that players should be called up when they're mentally and physically prepared for the major leagues.

     

    This should  be the only criteria that should matter to Terry Ryan, Brad Steil and those decision-makers. Are they ready? Obviously there is no Magic 8-ball that makes that an easy decision on a player. Age shouldn't be a factor.

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    As usual Seth good article. It certainly plays well for the future with all the young talent. One problem, being able to retain all this talent. Of course some of that will be taken care of by their progression or lack thereof. Btw, where does Meyer fail? Thant also to, KGB, great link.

     

    We all like Meyer, and we all still like his potential. But there has to be some reason that he hasn't been called up yet. It could be that he has a ton of potential still and they want to make sure that he works out 2-3 things before getting exposed. It could be that they just don't believe that he is ready to be a starter in the big leagues and that maybe his future is as a bullpen guy. My guess is if you were to privately poll a dozen members of the Twins brass that would be educated on him, you'd probably find a 50/50 split.

    They aren't keeping Meyer down for any monetary reasons. They've shown plenty of times a willingness to call guys up younger, or at the beginning of the season instead of waiting a month or two. So, it's not that. That tells me that in their belief, it is in the best interest of Meyer to have kept him down to this point.

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    Average is a silly measure......it doesn't take into account filler.....what is the age of actual prospects, that's the question.

     

    I acknowledge in the article the reason that average is what it is. But I will also say that these players need to play against the guys with more experience which are the people they're playing against. Also, if you want to define prospect, that's up to you. Anyone that has even the slightest chance to get to the big leagues? Only those that eventually get to the big leagues. I acknowledge that the AAA and to a lesser extent AA average age throws it off, but even if you were to make the AA one 24 and the AAA one 25, you'd still find similar results.

     

    It's more just to give a perspective on what the prospects are doing and where they are.

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    Here's some study of when prospects made the majors, looks like the Twins are very slow in getting them up to them majors.  They might be young compared in the lower minors, but like Mays and Meyers, after a couple years in AAA they stall the prospects.

     

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

    This is a pretty interesting article.  The data shows players getting called up from 2005 - 2009, so it is already 5 years old.  

     

    There is something to be said about the prospects of that era as well.  For comparison, from 2002 to 2009, the Twins never drafted earlier than 20th overall.  In comparison, Tampa, which was much more aggressive in promoting, drafted in the top 5 in all but two of those years (and one year was 2005 where they drafted 8th).  That also includes 3 #1 overall picks.  So, someone could make the claim that the better talent they were receiving in the draft allowed them to promote players more aggressively.

     

    I'd really like to see this data from 2010 - 2014.  I would expect that the Twins have moved further down the list and will be for a few more years.  

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    Here's some study of when prospects made the majors, looks like the Twins are very slow in getting them up to them majors.  They might be young compared in the lower minors, but like Mays and Meyers, after a couple years in AAA they stall the prospects.

     

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

     

    It's interesting to see the Twins' tendencies in comparison to other teams.  It might just have been that five year sample of talent, but it does reinforce the perception that most fans have.  Thanks for the link!

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    This is a pretty interesting article.  The data shows players getting called up from 2005 - 2009, so it is already 5 years old.  

     

    There is something to be said about the prospects of that era as well.  For comparison, from 2002 to 2009, the Twins never drafted earlier than 20th overall.  In comparison, Tampa, which was much more aggressive in promoting, drafted in the top 5 in all but two of those years (and one year was 2005 where they drafted 8th).  That also includes 3 #1 overall picks.  So, someone could make the claim that the better talent they were receiving in the draft allowed them to promote players more aggressively.

     

    I'd really like to see this data from 2010 - 2014.  I would expect that the Twins have moved further down the list and will be for a few more years.  

     

    I would agree that the Twins have seemed to have a change of mentality about young players the last several years.  At least offensively, several have been called up straight from AA.  Pitchers are a different story.  My guess is that since they have had such trouble developing them, they are not exactly sure what they need to do to get them ready.  Internal debate or second guessing would likely slow down pitchers when they get to the upper levels.

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    Age and league is pretty fundamental to how I project a prospect's progress, but only in the context of their performance. 

     

    Age does serve as a proxy for having a complete scouting report on a guy, though. I'm letting them do my homework for me, if I say a guy has a chance to be a star. "He's in Ft Myers at age 20?  Guess the team thinks a lot of him.  Could be in the majors in a couple of years.  That other guy there, he's 25; even though he's hitting better, it could be hard for him to get a cup of coffee."  Ya think? :)

     

    Number of years of pro experience also matters.  I'm more lenient waiting for a struggling 24 year old who came out of college than if he was signed as a free agent from the Dominican Republic at 16.  And outliers like Colabello, who didn't face tough competition in his early twenties, throws off such gauges as well.

     

    I was once 20 years old, and it wouldn't have done a team's prospect list any good to put me at AAA.

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    This is a very interesting way to look at young prospects and an enjoyable read. It brings to mind sort of an opinion or theory that I have had on the Twins minor league players.

     

    I think that sometimes the Twins are a bit too fussy in seemingly expecting players to master or dominate a level before they move up. (This may just be a false read on my part though.)

     

    If a player is a good prospect by your estimation and has an average year in single A for example, and he is maybe 22 yrs old, why not kick him up to the next level.

     

    I feel like not every rung on the ladder needs to be golden in order to become a solid major league player. This is where I think maybe the Twins could be more aggressive IMHO.

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    Wasn't a criticism, Seth, more an observation. I hate the use of averages all over society. Clearly some of these guys are young for their level.

     

    I always enjoyed seeing the lists of youngest players by league - you get a real feel for who is truly elite on those.

     

    Kind of like this one, except not confined to opening day:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/whos-the-youngest-in-each-league-opening-day-2014/

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    This is a very interesting way to look at young prospects and an enjoyable read. It brings to mind sort of an opinion or theory that I have had on the Twins minor league players.

     

    I think that sometimes the Twins are a bit too fussy in seemingly expecting players to master or dominate a level before they move up. (This may just be a false read on my part though.)

     

    If a player is a good prospect by your estimation and has an average year in single A for example, and he is maybe 22 yrs old, why not kick him up to the next level.

     

    I feel like not every rung on the ladder needs to be golden in order to become a solid major league player. This is where I think maybe the Twins could be more aggressive IMHO.

    Agree 100%

     

    Why send Meyer back to AAA and risk him being bored and pissed off. Berrios. I think if Berrios should start at AAA and if he dominates his first half dozen starts then get him to the majors. This is the pattern you see in many respected organizations. These other organizations have lots of young pitchers contributing. Twins may be getting into habit of letting pitching prospects languish. I do give them credit on Gibson however.

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    There is a piece in your article that raises another thought on the Twins minor league pipeline with me. I think what I am thinking probably goes against conventional wisdom.

     

    You mention how triple-A isn't so much about prospects as it is about journeyman in the organization that move up and down to provide depth and help the affiliate win games.

     

    In my mind, I see this as an area where the Twins could improve.  I feel like this should be a spot for our top prospects to be gathered to play with one another and against major league(almost) caliber players. In other words, provided they are ready, I want guys like Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, Pinto, Hicks playing together at the AAA level.

     

    I'm not real fond of hoarding a pack of journeymen at AAA. I would rather call up the most ready organizational prospect to fill in. Most guys need a few cups of coffee to help them bridge the gap from AAA to the majors anyway. Wouldn't if be more logical to say to Polanco, "Dozier strained a quad. We just need you to come up and fill in for 3 games." There is no pressure in that for Polanco. He comes up, does his best, learns something, and goes back with a better idea of what it takes to reach the majors.

     

    Again, this probably goes against conventional wisdom. But, it would seem that some type of fundamental change like this might help develop the kids and get them through the system quicker and more frequently.  

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    There is a piece in your article that raises another thought on the Twins minor league pipeline with me. I think what I am thinking probably goes against conventional wisdom.

     

    You mention how triple-A isn't so much about prospects as it is about journeyman in the organization that move up and down to provide depth and help the affiliate win games.

     

    In my mind, I see this as an area where the Twins could improve.  I feel like this should be a spot for our top prospects to be gathered to play with one another and against major league(almost) caliber players. In other words, provided they are ready, I want guys like Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, Pinto, Hicks playing together at the AAA level.

     

    I'm not real fond of hoarding a pack of journeymen at AAA. I would rather call up the most ready organizational prospect to fill in. Most guys need a few cups of coffee to help them bridge the gap from AAA to the majors anyway. Wouldn't if be more logical to say to Polanco, "Dozier strained a quad. We just need you to come up and fill in for 3 games." There is no pressure in that for Polanco. He comes up, does his best, learns something, and goes back with a better idea of what it takes to reach the majors.

     

    Again, this probably goes against conventional wisdom. But, it would seem that some type of fundamental change like this might help develop the kids and get them through the system quicker and more frequently.  

     

    I'm not a fan of hoarding guys there... But, for instance, with Deibinson Romero gone and Miguel Sano likely shaking off rust for awhile in AA, I would have no problem with the Twins signing a AAA/AAAA caliber 3B to fill the Rochester roster until Sano is ready. Might be the same with guys like Rosario and Polanco and Turner and Burdi and Reed and Michael and Rogers and Wheeler and, and, and...

     

    AA is considered the level with the best prospects. They're seeing the best fastballs and good sliders and guys that are young, motivated and just need a little more refinement. 

     

    AAA is an area with older guys who have learned a lot in their time. The fastballs may not be as good, but pitchers are pretty savvy and know how to get punk-kid hitters out.

     

    They are different and yet both can be valuable in that, the big leaguers have pretty good stuff and know-how... 

     

    It's this kind of discussion that just fascinates me about minor league baseball. 

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    This is a very interesting way to look at young prospects and an enjoyable read. It brings to mind sort of an opinion or theory that I have had on the Twins minor league players.

     

    I think that sometimes the Twins are a bit too fussy in seemingly expecting players to master or dominate a level before they move up. (This may just be a false read on my part though.)

     

    If a player is a good prospect by your estimation and has an average year in single A for example, and he is maybe 22 yrs old, why not kick him up to the next level.

     

    I feel like not every rung on the ladder needs to be golden in order to become a solid major league player. This is where I think maybe the Twins could be more aggressive IMHO.

     

    I'm with you in one way... The only way we're able to see if they "dominate" the league is through the stats. Often I read people wanting guys rushed up because they are killing the ball for 3 weeks or a month... a lot of times, those guys will get figured out. Sometimes experiencing that struggle and then making the adjustments is for the best.

     

    Coaches that watch and interact with these guys every day are the ones who likely know best. It's not just about the numbers. It's about defense. It's about approach at the plate and in the field. It's about maturity. 

     

    So, I don't fully agree with the need to 'dominate' a league statistically to move up, but I do agree with having a bunch of check boxes marked off before moving guys up. 

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    My concern with prospects and their leagues is that promotions matter.  I find no benefit with leaving a promising prospect in the same league for this reason:
     

    1.  If you promote a prospect mid season - the benefit goes to the prospect because teams have yet to have a true scouting report on him.  They have a report, but nothing like the ones managers utilize after seeing a guy 5 to 10 games by mid season.
     

    2.  If a prospect is held at a level  for an entire season to work on (whatever) - advantage opposing teams.  Those managers have seen a prospect a gazillion times and can now throw out new pitchers or new hitters who were just promoted to attack such prospect.  That held back prospect does not benefit from seeing the same people to adjust to any particular thing.  2nd half teams across the minors are generally new in make up.
     

    3.  You don't find promising prospects repeating levels for an entire year.  They get promoted and tend to repeat the first half of a previous season to see if they in fact have mastered concepts and approaches.  Many times they are seeing the same players they faced the previous second half of a season.  Recall matters in baseball.  Tendencies matter in baseball.  Advantage to the guy who can make those overall adjustments.   To the guy who knows what he needs to work on in the off season because he's been there already.

     

    We expect Vargas and Santana to be better prepared for the MLB this year because they had a sniff of what it's like.  They have seen pitchers and hitters within their division already.  Now through their coaches and manager they can better prepare for their new season as to what to expect and why.  

     

    I firmly believe that holding back a promising prospect is not as simple as "work on this / work on that".  I think that when writers talk about a prospects struggle to adjust  after seeing a team a whole year, they are not holding into account that those managers are the same but the players they face are mostly new.

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    Here's some study of when prospects made the majors, looks like the Twins are very slow in getting them up to them majors.  They might be young compared in the lower minors, but like Mays and Meyers, after a couple years in AAA they stall the prospects.

     

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

    While people chimed in about confirming what they thought about age in this article, they missed that these later in the draft choices produced a better warp than most systems. 

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