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  • Week in Review: Out of Their Depth


    Nick Nelson

    The Minnesota Twins are a bad baseball team. This was made painfully clear during another losing week in which they were thoroughly outplayed by two plainly superior contending clubs.

    Where do we go from here? 

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/7 through Sun, 6/13
    ***
    Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 26-39)
    Run Differential Last Week: -15 (Overall: -50)
    Standing: T-4th Place in AL Central (15.0 GB)

    Last Week's Game Recaps:

    Game 60 | NYY 8, MIN 4: New York Pulls Away Late, Wins Series Opener
    Game 61 | NYY 9, MIN 6: Yankees Tee Off on Dobnak in Victory
    Game 62 | MIN 7, NYY 5: Donaldson, Cruz Power Dramatic Comeback vs. Chapman
    Game 63 | HOU 6, MIN 4: Shoemaker's Late Lapse Leads to Loss
    Game 64 | MIN 5, HOU 2: Twins Win Behind Strong Effort from Berríos  
    Game 65 | HOU 14, MIN 3: Astros Destroy Twins Pitching in Blowout

    NEWS & NOTES

    Relatively speaking, it was a pretty quiet week in terms of roster moves and injury updates. Byron Buxton, Kenta Maeda, Luis Arraez, and Max Kepler all embarked on rehab assignments in St. Paul, so the Twins figure to get back these important fixtures in the near future. Gilberto Celestino was optioned to Triple-A, then quickly recalled, as Kyle Garlick went on the shelf with a sports hernia. Rob Refsnyder is back. (He started in right field and batted cleanup on Sunday, which says a lot about the state of this roster.)

    HIGHLIGHTS

    The biggest highlight of the week, and the season, came in the ninth inning of Thursday's series finale against the Yankees. With the Twins trailing by two runs and facing a sweep, Aroldis Chapman came to the mound, carrying a 0.39 ERA, 4-0 record, and 12-for-13 save conversion rate. He'd been lights-out, and was going up against a Twins team that has constantly shrunk in big spots.

    All of which made the ensuing sequence of events astonishingly improbable. 

    If you turned away from the TV, you might've missed one of the most exhilarating comeback wins in recent franchise history. It all happened so quickly.

    Jorge Polanco led off with a single. In stepped Josh Donaldson, who took ball one and then launched a mammoth game-tying home run to left-center. Willians Astudillo, pinch-hitting for Nick Gordon, followed with a first-pitch single of his own. And then came Nelson Cruz, who basically replicated what Donaldson did two ABs earlier by drilling a 1-0 pitch deep to center for the walk-off winner. 

    Within a span of nine pitches, the Twins grasped victory from the jaws of defeat.

    For Twins fans, the feeling was bittersweet, because it was hard not to think about how much more epic and energizing that win would've been if the Twins hadn't cast themselves hopelessly out of contention. In anticipation of this season, we dreamed about Cruz and Donaldson coming through with game-changing jolts like this all year long, but instead, such marquee moments have been far and few between, which is part of the reason the team finds itself buried in last place. 

    With that said, Cruz's bat has been showing some life at the plate again lately and that's good to see now matter how you slice it. He went 6-for-16 with three home runs and six RBIs on the week, equaling his totals in those categories from the entire month of May. He might not find himself leading the Twins on a pennant chase in August and September, but maybe he can do it for someone else, and score Minnesota a prospect or two in the process.

    Donaldson's clutch bomb was also part of a power-hitting rejuvenation, as he followed the next day by going deep twice against Houston – his second two-homer game in an eight-day span. His slugging percentage, which had sagged to .408 by the end of the Baltimore series in early June, is back up to .475. As I noted last week, Donaldson's been remarkably healthy and durable since his season-opening IL sint, leading the team in games played and plate appearances since returning. He's also been doing some very nice work with the glove.

    Polanco, whose single set up the dramatic finish against New York, has generally stayed hot at the plate. He went 6-for-21 with three homers and six RBIs last week. His left-handed swing is actually doing damage again and that's huge. Other standout offensive performances included Miguel Sanó (8-for-24 with two homers and four RBIs) and Alex Kirilloff (5-for-13 with just one strikeout in five games). 

    There weren't many positives on the pitching side, but José Berríos certainly qualifies. He was masterful against the Astros on Saturday night, spinning seven innings of two-run ball. The righty allowed only five hits and two walks while striking out eight. Berríos has won five straight decisions and the Twins are 7-1 in his last seven starts dating back to the beginning of May. 

    The other noteworthy pitching bright spot was a strong showing from Bailey Ober on Friday night, when he made a spot start in place of Matt Shoemaker. Going against an elite Houston offense, Ober tossed five innings and allowed just two runs, striking out seven with one walk. He continues to pump 92-93 MPH with his four-seamer, which is immensely encouraging. Ober looks like he could be a legitimate factor on a pitching staff that desperately needs help, both now and moving forward.

    LOWLIGHTS

    Even after being bumped from the rotation, Shoemaker continues to cost the Twins with his staggeringly poor play. He appeared in relief on Friday night against the Astros and took the loss, giving up two runs in the ninth to break a tie. (The decision by Rocco Baldelli to use him in this situation was ... questionable to say the least.) He came out of the bullpen again on Sunday and looked customarily awful, coughing up three runs on four hits and two walks in two innings of work. 

    Shoemaker has the worst ERA in the league, he's been tagged with eight losses in 13 appearances, and seems to look worse every time he takes the mound. It's past time for the Twins to move on. Roster crunches and depth issues be damned: you can't justify continuing to run a guy like this out in major-league games.

    The same can also be said for Alex Colomé, whose brief stretch of effectiveness in May is now a distant memory. He gave up two runs on three hits in his one inning of work on Sunday, and has a 5.48 ERA on the season to go along with his league-worst (by a mile) negative-2.34 Win Probability Added. Colomé's departure is probably less imminent than Shoemaker's, because they're paying him three times as much and are so direly short-handed in the bullpen, but in both cases it's only a matter of time. These guys were complete free agent busts and wherever the Twins go from here, they aren't going to be part of it.

    The situation with Randy Dobnak is a bit more complicated. He's looked every bit as bad as Shoemaker, with his ERA inflating to 8.38 after allowing 14 earned runs in 6 ⅔ innings over the past week. Dobnak gave up five home runs in two appearances, with four coming against his reinvented slider which has changed from a powerful asset to a glaring weakness for him. That begs the question why he or the Twins thought it would be a good idea to tinker with that pitch in the first place.

    It's not pleasant to watch Dobnak pitch right now, but the solution isn't as simple as cutting bait like it is with Shoemaker. The Twins just signed Dobnak to a five-year contract extension on the heels of an outstanding spring training, and while the monetary commitment isn't huge, they are invested in him for better or worse. It behooves them to help him work through his issues because he's currently one of their few figments of long-term stability in the rotation picture.

    Fixing the pitching staff has become a primary crux for the Twins and their future outlook. The work is cut out for them here. Michael Pineda looks to be headed for the Injured List. Shoemaker is unusable and J.A. Happ hasn't been much better. Berríos is under contract for one more year after this and Maeda two more. It's tough to have much confidence in the front office filling tons of holes and constructing a quality unit from scratch during the offseason given how poorly all of their moves this year fared. 

    As such, you can see why it's critically important for Ober to build on his early success and for Dobnak to get straightened out. The Twins need some things to break right with young pitchers or they simply won't be equipped to contend next year, in which case, why not just trade Berríos at the upcoming deadline?

    TRENDING STORYLINE

    For what it's worth, the Twins are about to get a lot closer to full strength. Maeda, Buxton, and Arraez have completed their rehab stints and will be traveling to Seattle for the upcoming road trip. Maeda is scheduled to start against the Mariners on Monday, and the other two will presumably be activated for that game as well. Kepler is be a bit further behind, given that he played his first rehab game in St. Paul on Sunday (and was the DH), but we could see him up before week's end. Those are some pretty key cogs the Twins have been playing without. 

    We'll see if their returns, along with a softening of the schedule, can help this team get on a bit of a winning run here in the back half of June. So far, sustained hot streaks have eluded them.

    LOOKING AHEAD

    Get ready for some late-night baseball as the Twins head to Seattle for a showdown against the Mariners in Pacific Time. Then, following an off day, Minnesota heads down to Texas for a weekend series against the last-place Rangers.

    MONDAY, 6/13: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Marco Gonzales
    TUESDAY, 6/14: TWINS @ MARINERS – LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Chris Flexen
    WEDNESDAY, 6/15: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Justus Sheffield
    FRIDAY, 6/17: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Mike Foltynewicz
    SATURDAY, 6/18: TWINS @ RANGERS – TBD v. LHP Kolby Allard
    SUNDAY, 6/19: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Dane Dunning

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    I thought it was ironic that Shoemaker, who was pulled from the role of a starter because he couldn't get through two innings, was to come in for Ober so that Shoemaker could still assure the loss by pitching the final two innings instead of the first two...I was under the impression Shoemaker was pulled as starter because he wasn't good, so why would he be brought in during an even higher leverage situation? I have trouble processing that, sorry...

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    15 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Very hard to keep the faith in an organization that has kept Matt Shoemaker on the roster over the past several weeks.

     

    Maybe it’s blatant tanking, which, who knows, might be the best for this club.

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    21 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Gleeman has mentioned on their podcast the last couple of weeks if anyone would be willing to take on Sano’s contract he’d be gone. I tend to believe that, considering before everyone got hurt, he was demoted to a platoon role vs LH pitching. I like the idea of Kirilloff settling in at 1B for his controllable years. Having him and Larnach in the corners would be doing a disservice to the CF covering the rest of the OF. 

    Is that Gleeman's opinion or is it based on something he knows?  I tend to think that Sano is a "risk," but there are teams out there who would feel they can get what they need to get out of him on a consistent basis, at least for a short period of time.  And right now, his remaining contract is short.

    The Twins may not like what they would get back in a Sano trade, but that's very different from nobody wanting him.  He is not that expensive, and in the right environment he will do great things (though, yes, it may not last).

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    8 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

    Is that Gleeman's opinion or is it based on something he knows?  I tend to think that Sano is a "risk," but there are teams out there who would feel they can get what they need to get out of him on a consistent basis, at least for a short period of time.  And right now, his remaining contract is short.

    The Twins may not like what they would get back in a Sano trade, but that's very different from nobody wanting him.  He is not that expensive, and in the right environment he will do great things (though, yes, it may not last).

    With Sano, I tend to believe he has inside info. He’s mentioned that they would move on from him the last couple of podcasts. In regards to Donaldson, it sounded like speculation if they intend to do a bigger rebuild for 2023. 
     

    You also touched on what they discussed. He’s not overly expensive. The issue is going to be what percentage of his remaining $20 million we would pick up to trade him for a decent prospect? I’m not sure it’s worth making the trade if the Twins have to cover 50+% of the remaining contract. Similar story for Donaldson. 

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