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Better than we thought?


Brandon
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The Twins currently have a .453 win % which puts them on track for 75 wins this season. If the Twins win 74-78 games this year, I think that would put Gardenhire in a pretty good spot to maintain his job as manager seeing how bad the rotation is and the fact that the lineup underperformed. With how the Twins have performed lately will Gardenhire keep his job? I think so.

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Going into the season, I thought they'd end up in the 72-75 win range. Dunno if I publicly predicted that (I tend to avoid prediction threads) but it appears that's where they'll end up if for no other reason than it's really, really hard to lose 90+ games three seasons in a row when you have guys like Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, etc. on the roster.

 

And that's the reason I wanted to see Ryan pick up some legit free agents this offseason. If the Twins had Dempster right now and got a lucky break or two with Plouffe, Dozier, Arcia, Hicks, etc., they'd be borderline "contenders".

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Yeah I think we are a little better than it seems, and if I were Gardy, I would try to beat the current pace in September, so when the old year-end review comes around he looks even a little better. Deservedly, I think we've leaned a little more toward getting a look at guys than winning at all costs, if I were him, I'd tilt the other way from here on out. If I were him.

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I honestly don't think of this team as being any better than the 2011 or 2012 teams at this point in the season. Every time I glance at the standings, I'm amazed that we're only 9 games under .500. They have a 27-28 record at home.

 

Still, that's pretty deceptive, IMO. It probably doesn't hurt that the AL added a total bottom-feeder (Houston), that Chicago has been even more terrible, and that Toronto decided to become the Florida Marlins North. Also, Twins teams with losing records tend to get even worse at the end of the season, so this may not be the best time to judge.

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The team has had three really bad 10-game stretches. Obviously, those count. But all we would need to do next year to be a .500 team is to go .500 in those bad stretches. That's a matter of a better starter or two. That's why I'm much more confident at this time this year than at this time last year.

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The team has had three really bad 10-game stretches. Obviously, those count. But all we would need to do next year to be a .500 team is to go .500 in those bad stretches. That's a matter of a better starter or two. That's why I'm much more confident at this time this year than at this time last year.

 

I hear Bronson Arroyo is looking to get out of Cinci

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This is pretty much what the board predicted.....not sure they are "better than expected".

 

Gardy isn't going anywhere, these are the Twins afterall.

 

I predicted 65-97...so record-wise, I said they were better than expected. I don't think the talent is better than expected at all.

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There is a pretty big gap between what the Twins have for starting pitchers and what they need in order to contend. You can see the potential though. Defensively, the Twins are capable of playing at a very high level, especially with Hicks in CF. The offense is better with Willingham back, but it's still below average. Help is on the way for the offense, but not for the pitching staff.

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This team has shown improvements (defense, bullpen), no change (starting pitching), and disappointment (offense - was expected to improve) over last years team. Overall the team is better but this group is years (as in Sano, Buxton, Mays, Meyer, and the low level arms) away from competing, still. I think the team will be young enough and cheap enough in a couple years that they should spend big next off-season to get a good product out there, then turn it over to the kids and dominate into the next decade.

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I can't agree about the defense improving...while the middle IF has clearly turned gold glove caliber, the OF is as bad as it can be and 3B is still a mess. Going by defensive efficiency, we're 28th in the majors. We were 18th at season's end last year.

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The Twins are pretty close to median in terms of runs allowed.....they aren't even close to median in runs scored. They are much closer to the leader in runs allowed than runs scored. I don't think people realize just how bad the offense is this year. Even adding 1 good starter would really help this team. More importantly, they can't have the Hicks / Floriman / Morneau /Plouffe / Doumit tandem in the lineup every day and expect to score runs.

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In my opinion, whether Gardy keeps his job or not should already be decided and shouldn't have much to do with whether the team wins 65 games or 75 games this year. The better question is who do you want coaching the upcoming wave of prospects? You've got Sano, Rosario, Buxton, and Meyer with debuts in the next year or two, and Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson with a taste of the bigs already. What head coach is going to help these 7 players reach their potential? Is it Gardy or someone else? I don't see how winning a few more games than expected this year changes the answer to this question.

 

Full disclosure - this isn't really my idea, I'm pretty much ripping it off from Phil Mackey.

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The "Twins might be a little better than we thought" thing is now happening for the 3rd time this year. The first 2 times, the team fell flat on its face. It's nice that we have been able to beat up on the White Sox and Astros over the past 10 days, but I don't think it means very much as far as how good of a team this is. I don't think we get to 75 wins--65 seems more likely to me.

 

EDIT: I now notice the Twins have 53 wins, which is to say 65 would be a complete implosion. I should say 70 wins to me is more likely than 75 however.

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The "Twins might be a little better than we thought" thing is now happening for the 3rd time this year. The first 2 times, the team fell flat on its face. It's nice that we have been able to beat up on the White Sox and Astros over the past 10 days, but I don't think it means very much as far as how good of a team this is. I don't think we get to 75 wins--65 seems more likely to me.

 

EDIT: I now notice the Twins have 53 wins, which is to say 65 would be a complete implosion. I should say 70 wins to me is more likely than 75 however.

 

Well, we had 50 wins last year after 117 games played...ended up with 66. In 2011, we had 52 wins after 117 games and ended with 63. Complete implosion isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Edited by ThePuck
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The Twins are pretty close to median in terms of runs allowed.....they aren't even close to median in runs scored. They are much closer to the leader in runs allowed than runs scored. I don't think people realize just how bad the offense is this year. Even adding 1 good starter would really help this team. More importantly, they can't have the Hicks / Floriman / Morneau /Plouffe / Doumit tandem in the lineup every day and expect to score runs.

 

The twins have scored 3.98 runs per game and have allowed 4.49 runs per game. In the AL, only the White Sox, Astros, and Yankees(!!) have scored fewer per game, and only the Astros, Blue Jays, Angels, and Mariners have allowed more runs per game. It's not pretty.

 

Here's my reasons to hope: we will score more runs next year because Arcia, Hicks, and whomever is playing 1B and 3B will be much improved (how could they not?). We will allow fewer runs because our infield defense should remain as good as it has been, and our outfield defense has nowhere to go but up. And, of course, our pitching could not be worse than it is.

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Where do you set the bar? Contending? Winning in the playoffs? World Series win?

 

The last 10 years, 2003-2012:

Twins, 2-15 in the playoffs zero series wins.

Clev., 6-5, 1 series win.

Chicago, 14-4, 3 series wins, a world champ.

Det., 20-17, 5 series wins 2 trips to the world series.

Royals; great farm system.

 

What do you want? After the end of this year it will be 9 full seasons since they won A playoff game, 9 years! Is that good enough?

Terry Ryan has been the GM for 16 years and has one playoff series win. Is that good enough?

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Where do you set the bar? Contending? Winning in the playoffs? World Series win?

 

The last 10 years, 2003-2012:

Twins, 2-15 in the playoffs zero series wins.

Clev., 6-5, 1 series win.

Chicago, 14-4, 3 series wins, a world champ.

Det., 20-17, 5 series wins 2 trips to the world series.

Royals; great farm system.

 

What do you want? After the end of this year it will be 9 full seasons since they won A playoff game, 9 years! Is that good enough?

Terry Ryan has been the GM for 16 years and has one playoff series win. Is that good enough?

Yes, Ryan is good enough.
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Terry Ryan has been the GM for 16 years and has one playoff series win. Is that good enough?

 

Billy Beane has been the GM for 15 years and has one playoff series win. Is that good enough?

 

What I care about is getting to the playoffs. A couple of those years, I thought the Twins should have pushed a little harder to shore up problem areas but a large part of those series losses were just **** luck. Good players playing badly in key moments.

 

Baseball is a frustrating sport in small doses.

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Well, we had 50 wins last year after 117 games played...ended up with 66. In 2011, we had 52 wins after 117 games and ended with 63. Complete implosion isn't out of the realm of possibility.

 

the 75 wins i had down was taking their current .453 win percentage times 162 = 74.75 wins rounding to 75 wins on the season. so if they play at their current levels then 75 is possible and that was my point. 75 is better than where we thought we would end up a few weeks ago thus making it possible for the Twins to say why whould we let Gardenhire go? he overacheived with this team.

 

on another note, i noticed through the years that the better the bullpen the more a team oveerachieves. that would make for an interesting study on the win pythagorean.

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the 75 wins i had down was taking their current .453 win percentage times 162 = 74.75 wins rounding to 75 wins on the season. so if they play at their current levels then 75 is possible and that was my point. 75 is better than where we thought we would end up a few weeks ago thus making it possible for the Twins to say why whould we let Gardenhire go? he overacheived with this team.

 

on another note, i noticed through the years that the better the bullpen the more a team overachieves. that would make for an interesting study on the win pythagorean.

 

I understood your math from the beginning, but perhaps you should read the post I was responding to carefully, focus on the 'edit' part of his post, and then read mine again. As far as your question, I already answered it in one of the earlier posts on this thread.

Edited by ThePuck
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