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Five Trades the Minnesota Twins Could Make for a Starting Pitcher


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This offseason, the Minnesota Twins will again find themselves in the pitching market. They'll need to replace a pair of departures to establish depth that had them owning one of the best rotations in baseball. Could they do it through the trade market?

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

While the headliner leaving Rocco Baldelli’s pitching staff is Sonny Gray, it should be noted that Kenta Maeda is on his way out as well. Derek Falvey will need to restock the group that now includes Pablo Lopez and Chris Paddack, but finding a higher-caliber arm to join them seems like a must.

Playing in the free agency market may not be the most straightforward way to reduce payroll. That could bode well for a Twins organization that has done well with pitching trades, and when Gray turns into a compensatory draft pick, they’ll have seen their best work come full circle. Here are five options Minnesota could consider:

Alek Manoah - Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has some serious soul-searching to do when it comes to Manoah. He was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2021 and finished third in the Cy Young voting in 2022 while also being an All-Star. Then, last season, everything fell apart. He made just 19 starts at the major league level, most of which were bad. He didn’t show up to the minors when demoted initially and was sent on a journey that had him pitching in Single-A.

Maybe the relationship is tarnished with the Blue Jays, or maybe Toronto doesn’t think they can fix him. Either way, plenty was going on mentally and physically with Manoah. A change of scenery could be a good opportunity for him. Minnesota previously matched up with this front office when sending Jose Berrios to Canada for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Max Kepler could join him to play with George Springer and Daulton Varsho in the outfield. Manoah is under team control through 2027, so the ask will be steep even if his stock is down.

Proposed trade - Manoah for Kepler and David Festa (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight advantage TOR)

Logan Gilbert - Seattle Mariners
One of the most talked about names this offseason has been the 14th overall pick from the 2018 draft. Seattle has pitching coming out their ears with Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby. Maybe they will move Gilbert to address some other issues on their roster. He has posted numbers similar to Pablo Lopez at this point, and with the Twins making some tweaks, unlocking another level for the 27-year-old could turn him into a frontline starter.

With Seattle exploring options for a second baseman, this would be a match where Minnesota may find Jerry Dipoto looking fondly at Jorge Polanco. That won’t be near enough to headline a deal for a guy who doesn’t hit free agency until 2028, but the Twins may be inclined to build a package around him. Gilbert could immediately slot in as a top-three starter for Baldelli, which would do wonders to replace Gray.

Proposed trade - Gilbert for Polanco, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, and Connor Prielipp (TVS says: Significant disadvantage SEA)

Paul Blackburn - Oakland Athletics
Having been in Oakland for seven years, it only seems fair that Blackburn deserves saving. He will be 30 years old in 2024 and is a free agent following the 2025 season. He should be in line for only modest raises each of the next two years, which is enticing to a team not keen on writing checks like Oakland. The Athletics would certainly want prospects in return for Blackburn, and Minnesota’s depth could play beneficial there.

Named as a token All-Star in 2022, Blackburn actually had a better season last year. His 4.43 ERA was nothing to write home about, but the 3.96 FIP suggests there is something to work with. He isn’t a durable arm and is not someone who will rewrite who he has been thus far in his career at this stage. Still, if the Twins want to lengthen their rotation and do it without a substantial cost, Blackburn should be available for a back-end top-30 prospect.

Proposed trade - Blackburn for Jovani Moran and Josh Winder (TVS says: Advantage OAK)

Mitch Keller - Pittsburgh Pirates
A former second-round pick, Keller has Twins Territory ties in that he’s the pride of Cedar Rapids. Taken out of high school, he debuted at 23 and will be 28 in 2024. He’ll make a bit more money in the next two seasons, but he is still plenty cost-effective and doesn’t hit free agency until 2026.

Keller’s secondary numbers are better than his ERA in the past two seasons, and his 3.84 FIP is something to dream on with a better developmental staff. He posted a career-best 9.7 K/9 last year and was just shy of 200 innings. Named an All-Star, his addition to the Twins staff would be no worse than their third-best arm. Keller would definitely come with a higher cost than Blackburn, but probably less than Manoah and Gilbert. Maybe Derek Shelton and Baldelli can team up for a deal here.

Proposed trade - Keller for Matt Wallner and Yasser Mercedes (TCS says: Neutral)

Corbin Burnes - Milwaukee Brewers
There’s no denying that the Brewers are looking for less ways to spend. That has been the case for years, and they may now enter a period of transition with manager Craig Counsell leaving for Chicago. Burnes is in the final year of team control and’ll be north of $11 million after arbitration. Milwaukee isn’t going to want an expensive asset back, but a prospect trade could work.

Burnes isn’t the same pitcher he was in 2021 when winning a Cy Young, but he’s still exceptionally talented. The Brewers will try and hope someone pays a king’s ransom, and while Minnesota needs to avoid that, a top-10 prospect package doesn’t seem ridiculous when you could be getting a true ace out of the deal. Putting Burnes at the top of a rotation with Lopez gives Minnesota a one-two punch anyone in the league should envy.

Proposed trade - Burnes for Marco Raya, Kody Funderburk, and Jose Miranda (TVS says: Slight disadvantage MIL)

Which of these starters are you most inclined to trade for? Does the expected cost turn you off for one more than another?


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I'm not trading Festa or Kepler for Manoah. Perhaps the price is high but I just say no for either much less both. Let some other team benefit from a rebound from Manoah.

I believe Milwaukee might ask for more and I'm not sure the Twins budget works for Burnes.

Keller is a good pitcher and that trade seems fair, although I am reticent to trade Wallner.

Blackburn? The Twins should shoot higher. You are correct that he could fit in the back of the rotation. The trade favors the Twins seemingly.

The trade for Gilbert is interesting. Seattle might be thinking of a different combination of players.

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I would package Julien, Kepler, Larnach and low-level minor leaguer for Gilbert.

Seattle fills 2B, covers the RF loss of Teoscar Hernandez, can maybe get Larnach on the right track (he's a west coast kid and played at Oregon State) and gets a throw in that may or may not pay out.

Minnesota still has Polanco (and Farmer) to hold 2B down until Lee gets here mid-season, moves Kepler for salary relief, allows Larnach to possibly reach his potential (evidently not going to happen here) and fills out the rotation. 

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I'd throw out the high & low. I'd like to shoot higher than Blackburn & I wouldn't want to shell out any high prospects for 1 yr. of Burns because I doubt we can resign him which makes a trade feasible.

You didn't say how many yrs. of availibilty w/ Gilbert which would make a difference. Yet I believe SEA would want to hold out for Julien instead of Polanco. Which I'm fine with me. go for it.

I think you hit the nail on the head with Manoah as far as his problem is mental. What sticks out to me about Manoah last off season was his verbal confrontation with the Yankees & Big Media, that was bound to effect him. He needs to be removed from that enviroment & TOR knows it. IMO TOR is motivated to move him where he can recover. This could be an opportunity for MN.

I love the Cedar Rapids connection with Keller. PIT has done wonders in the last few years in their pitching development but still Keller could benefit greatly by coming to MN. I've longed for Baldelli to reach out to Sheldon when Sheldon was motivated to make some great deals. I believe that window has closed. PIT highly prizes SPing now & it'd be hard to pry Keller away from PIT.

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Brock mentioned Peralta from Milwaukee.  He is on a great team friendly contract for 5.75, 8, 8 with 875k incentives for all three years and one or two of the last years of the contract are team options.  I would trade for him.  A half step below Gray at a 1/3 the cost or less…. Probably expensive to trade. But we should have what they want in a trade.  Julien or Lee and Larnarch or Wallner and maybe Winder with Milwaukee entering a tear down rebuild they may want more prospects at a lower level or a mixture of both low and high level players 

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Manoah and Keller would make the most sense financially with still a pretty big upside. As usual it would all come down to cost. 

Manoah... Suggested Proposed trade - Manoah for Kepler and David Festa (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight advantage TOR) Would work but think I think they would want more and not sure about giving up Festa as he may have just about as much upside. 

My trade would be Miranda, Kepler and Winder for Manoah. Trade simulator says that it would be a slight overpay from the Twins side... but I would do... 

As far as Keller .... Proposed trade - Keller for Matt Wallner and Yasser Mercedes (TCS says: Neutral) I could see that happen. Wallners value is as high as it going to get and we have some guys coming up soon that will pass him... 

Either would work for me... Burnes and Gilbert are going to be cost prohibitive and Blackburn is waiver wire fodder... 

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4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not trading Festa or Kepler for Manoah. Perhaps the price is high but I just say no for either much less both. Let some other team benefit from a rebound from Manoah.

I believe Milwaukee might ask for more and I'm not sure the Twins budget works for Burnes.

Keller is a good pitcher and that trade seems fair, although I am reticent to trade Wallner.

Blackburn? The Twins should shoot higher. You are correct that he could fit in the back of the rotation. The trade favors the Twins seemingly.

The trade for Gilbert is interesting. Seattle might be thinking of a different combination of players.

It's hard to hold back on so many pieces, but then ask to aim higher than Blackburn.

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I think Polanco is the most expendible trade piece. Teams know what they are getting and the Twins have second base pretty much locked down. I would never give up Julien, who will be a +.290 hitter with a high OBP as he matures. He is also has better upside on defense as well, so that is who I would start with. I think Polanco plus one potential (Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff) and one lower level prospect to bring a good pitcher our way would do the trick.

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I like the Seattle trade. I would substitute Julien for Polanco and hopefully save Priellipp. If we are going to give up prospects let’s get a pitcher that will be a difference maker. Too many question marks with the other pitchers. 

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I keep seeing Logan Gilbert 's name thrown around as a trade target on this site, but what evidence is there that Seattle would even consider trading him? Given his talent and team control, he's arguably their most valuable pitcher. They are in win now mode. If they need offense, they're probably more likely to deal one of their more unproven commodities, like Hancock.

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A couple question to toss out there to get opinions on first:

1] IF Giolito is healthy, and if we take for granted...at still only 29yo...that his 3yr run from 2019-2021 and the first 3-4 months of 2023 us the REAL Giolito, would it make more sense to sign him and either keep our prospects, or, trade a few for additional help elsewhere?

2] While the OP lists some really good arms, another thread mentioned Edward Cabrera from the Marlins, and SOMEONE else I can't recall now as a pair of top young arms that need some work but have tremendous stuff. Might they be smarter adds that could cost less to get and "work up" similar to Lopez?

Just asking is all.

I think a trade with the Mariners makes the most sense. They need bats, and reportedly, LH bats in particular. I'd be offering Polanco and Larnach as starting points. Polanco is obvious as a proven producer. Larnach needs opportunity to play, and maybe a change of scenery. If he got 500 plate appearances, and only hit .225-.230, I think he might be good for 20HR and 30 Dbls.

From there, it would depend some on what the Mariners need/like/want. Severino isn't fully proven yet, but is a switch hitter with big time power and at least some positional flexibility. E-Rod is a tantalizing prospect to be sure, but is further away. Could Rosario interest them, despite also being a couple years away? How about Miranda, healthy again, interest them as a RH power bat just a season removed from looking like a keeper? Maybe someone like Mercedes as a longer range prospect with tools as a 4th bat in the deal?

With their arms, and arms coming up, seems to me a package of 3 or 4 various bats and future bats might well supplement their roster today and tomorrow. I think there's enough available to them to bring back either Gilbert or Kirby. 

Is it possible the Twins really like the potential of Miller as much and he'd come back a little cheaper?

Seattle makes the most sense to me, as long as they aren't looking for something like 2 top 10 bats and a throw in, or a Polanco/Julien, PLUS  E-Rod, AND another top 10. 

I also like Keller from the Pirates in a more "balanced" trade where they would be looking for a combination of talent to build, various bats and arms from the 40 man and system.

Manoah scares me a little, and I'm out if I have even a hint of a headache involved. Blackburn does nothing for me, or the Twins, IMO. Burnes ONLY if acquiring him INCLUDES a new deal. Otherwise, we're potentially right back where we started this time next year.

Seattle, or Pittsburgh, OR,  looking at someone like Cabrera from Miami, or similar, that has flashed the talent, and might be ready to take the next step with the Twins coaching.

 

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Don’t see Mariners moving Gilbert - particularly to a team in same League at a similar level of post-season capabilities.

Manoa seems like a head case with a lot of risk …..”didn’t report after being sent down” NOT cool! His ERA had nearly tripled, had to go down to work on some things.

Keller makes some sense - I’d try to find an alternative to Wallner as main trade piece

Blackburn isn’t worth pursuing

Burnes is too much player capital for a one year rental 

However, we use similar trade pieces to Milwaukee and get back Devin Williams for two years at just over $6M/year. Move Varland to rotation. Sign Seth Lugo for 2,years at $25M total. Rotation is stellar & Pen is better!! 

Staff is solid and we trade Polanco to get his $10.5M freed up and the pitching adds are $18.

Low $130’s Million for total spend for ‘24!

Festa - Miranda - Gordon - E. Rodriguez

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4 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

It's hard to hold back on so many pieces, but then ask to aim higher than Blackburn.

Well, I hope you gathered that I find both Keller and Gilbert as good options.

The budget and ask would likely sink a trade for Burnes. Pittsburgh management stated that they will be adding pitching. Since then the news has come out that Johan Oviedo needs TJ. I don't think they trade Keller.

Seattle is the team to talk with first. The price for one of their pitchers will be high, very high and I'm all in on a trade for any one of Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, or Woo. 

Miami is a possibility too. Edward Cabrera is out of options and has struggled some with his control. Maybe he is not available and maybe the Twins don't want him either. Cabrera is a guy I would gamble on.

I'm not keen on either Manoah or Blackburn.

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11 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Manoah and Keller would make the most sense financially with still a pretty big upside. As usual it would all come down to cost. 

Manoah... Suggested Proposed trade - Manoah for Kepler and David Festa (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight advantage TOR) Would work but think I think they would want more and not sure about giving up Festa as he may have just about as much upside. 

My trade would be Miranda, Kepler and Winder for Manoah. Trade simulator says that it would be a slight overpay from the Twins side... but I would do... 

As far as Keller .... Proposed trade - Keller for Matt Wallner and Yasser Mercedes (TCS says: Neutral) I could see that happen. Wallners value is as high as it going to get and we have some guys coming up soon that will pass him... 

Either would work for me... Burnes and Gilbert are going to be cost prohibitive and Blackburn is waiver wire fodder... 

I'm OK with Keller but Manoah scares me.

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10 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I think Polanco is the most expendible trade piece. Teams know what they are getting and the Twins have second base pretty much locked down. I would never give up Julien, who will be a +.290 hitter with a high OBP as he matures. He is also has better upside on defense as well, so that is who I would start with. I think Polanco plus one potential (Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff) and one lower level prospect to bring a good pitcher our way would do the trick.

He's certainly about the most expendable player we could trade, but as far as appealing to other teams, I would assume that most trade partners might prefer one or two of our younger prospects. Polanco has value, but if I'm the other team, I'd be a bit worried about his injury history. 

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I would do the Seattle trade. I don't know if they would

Connor P has health issues and Rodriguez has swing and miss issues.

Wallner and Eddie J are two of my favorites on the Twins team. I would be super disappointed to see either of those go, no matter who we got back.

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So the Twins have the guys that can make pitchers better? Just a few tweaks and those middle of the pack rotation guys can be much better. If all it takes is a few tweaks other teams would do it. How about tweaking the pitchers we have and make them better. That would be cheaper. Sorry but those types of comments make me laugh. It's like the Twins are the only team that can fix players that are struggling. Which leads me to say, go big or go home. Stay away from the players that need tweaking, I think they tried that with Gallo and we all know how that turned out. The Twins already have enough of those types of players.

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The Gilbert trade seems reasonable.  The trade for Burns is not bad but then next year you are again searching for someone to replace him as he will not resign with Twins most likely. The others I am not sold on. 

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Any trade of a minor league pitcher is one where everyone but the team trading him thinks there is a high ceiling. SWR is a perfect example of that. The trade the Cardinals made for Ozuna is why you do not want to make a mistake. Trades involving Polanco or Kepler would be to a team that is contending looking to fill a hole until the prospect comes up.  Trading for either of them means there was not a better stopgap available as a free agent or they are basically a sweetener to get the deal as an overpay for the prospect. So if you think neither Festa nor Raya is going to be a high quality pitcher the team should trade them while they still have value 

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1 hour ago, rv78 said:

So the Twins have the guys that can make pitchers better? Just a few tweaks and those middle of the pack rotation guys can be much better. If all it takes is a few tweaks other teams would do it. How about tweaking the pitchers we have and make them better. That would be cheaper. Sorry but those types of comments make me laugh. It's like the Twins are the only team that can fix players that are struggling. Which leads me to say, go big or go home. Stay away from the players that need tweaking, I think they tried that with Gallo and we all know how that turned out. The Twins already have enough of those types of players.

I agree with you about the guys who aren't good that the FO thinks they can magically fix (The Gallos, Shoemakers, etc. of the world). However, if you look at guys who are already decent and one or two steps from being impact players, it's a pretty good track record. Lopez obviously, and they even took Joe Ryan from everyone's player development darling (the Rays) and made him more than anyone expected he'd be. Therefore it's totally believable that they could find an extra gear for a guy like Mitch Keller, Alek Manoah, etc.

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18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not trading Raya for one year of a pitcher. No way. 

The Seattle deal is the best of these 

Agreed. Also not trading Emmanuel Rodriguez unless it is part of a package for someone elite, like Alcantara (despite TJ) or Peralta in Milwaukee. I've seen him in person(ER) quite a bit and have zero doubts he'll be a stud. 

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Thanks Ted!  I think the Twins will need to swing at least one trade for pitching and have a Frankie Montas/Luis Severino/Lucas Giolito priced free agent SP signing. 

The Seattle trade for Gilbert isn't happening.  I tried it on BBTV and it refused to validate it.  Twins were getting 73.9 value for Gilbert and giving the Mariners 39.20 back.  You'd need to remove Emm-Rod and insert Brooks Lee or Julien to even get close (you're still coming up with something around 62-65 in value).  Gilbert is just too expensive. 

Blackburn is a non-starter.

The other three are interesting.

Keller cost wise is about the equal to Burnes.  Both are 28 years old (again, only ONE year older than Ryan).  The package to get either could probably be very similar with the Brewers and Pirates looking for prospects but also looking for a major league player or two that fits with their rebuild.  The Keller deal with Wallner and Mercedes works value wise although the Pirates may request a pitcher like Festa or Raya instead of two OF. 

The numbers work on the Burnes deal as well although I think you would probably need to overpay slightly for Burnes given his pedigree and the competition you would face in his trade market.  I would swap out Funderburk and include Jax instead.  Jax has 1.7 more in value so that would juice up the offer, but I also don't want to deal Funderburk as he will be our primary lefty in the pen with Thielbar aging out and Moran lost for the season.  Jax, Festa and Miranda gets you to a 32.9 value making the Burnes deal a slight, but necessary overpay.  I'd replace Jax in the bullpen with Varland.

One other possible Burnes deal would be Wallner 23.3 and Festa 8.7  (32 total) where you include Headrick 1.7 to sweeten the offer.

The Manoah deal is interesting.  He's only at a 14.5 value and I think you could swap out Kepler for Larnach and still make the deal.  Larnach 5.5 and Festa 8.7 is 14.2 in value and that could work.  If Wallner is in any other deal I would have to keep Kepler.  You can trade Wallner AND Larnach this off season with Emm-Rod probably one season away and Jenkins charging ahead like a freight train.  

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Doc Bauer, I was the guy that proposed a trade with the Marlins where Edward Cabrera was the centerpiece, but I tried to steal a couple good young arms from them whose value has dropped considerably as throw-ins.  The deal would look like this:

Marlins Get:  Polanco 8.3 value and Kala 'i Rosario 2.2  10.5 total value.  Polanco steps right in at 2B (Arraez is playing 1B) and Rosario gives the Marlins a young bat with potential to sweeten the deal and allow us to get Sanchez primarily. 

Twins Get:  Edward Cabrera 8.5  RHP 26 years old   Sixto Sanchez 0.0 RHP 26 years old    Ryan Weathers 0.0 LHP 24 y/o.

Sanchez was once the #15 prospect in March of 2021.  He has battled shoulder problems and had surgery twice, July 2021 and October 2022.  He finally made a successful rehab appearance at the end of last season but it's kind of like our Matt Canterino situation,  How long can you wait?  Sanchez throws a 4-seamer 97-99 mph and a power sinker 95-97.  He's got a power arm and at 25/26 years old could remain a SP or build himself back up in the bullpen like Canterino.

Ryan Weathers was a hot prospect for the Padres and was dealt to Miami at the deadline last season.  He's just 24 years old and he's had some eye catching "ups" as well as some downs.  He's got to improve his command.  A little too walk prone still, but he's a young lefty who has both started and relieved at the major league level.  I'm not sure why his value is zero on BBTV but he's got great potential in a rotation or the bullpen.

Honestly, before I'd go big game hunting for a Burnes or Keller, I'd try to make a deal like this with Miami.  If COST for payroll purposes is a major concern for the Twins in 2024, then I add these three arms and a free agent like Montas/Severino/Giolito who should all be "somewhat" affordable if you're considering replacing Sonny Gray with a veteran.  Then you can put a Cabrera in the #3 spot and slide Varland to the bullpen to really fortify that.  Whatever you could get out of arms like Sanchez, who should be healthy, Weathers, who is healthy and Canterino, who we HOPE is finally healthy, you've filled your pitching needs with one FA veteran, a solid young #3 in Cabrera and two other tremendous, young arms in addition to not giving up anyone like Festa, Raya, Canterino or Soto.  

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14 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I think Polanco is the most expendible trade piece. Teams know what they are getting and the Twins have second base pretty much locked down. I would never give up Julien, who will be a +.290 hitter with a high OBP as he matures. He is also has better upside on defense as well, so that is who I would start with. I think Polanco plus one potential (Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff) and one lower level prospect to bring a good pitcher our way would do the trick.

Much as I value Polanco for his clutch hitting, I agree that he is the most expendable piece that is likely to find a return. Not by himself, but as part of a package with a prospect. I like the Gilbert trade even though I would really like to keep E-Rod. That's a good value for value swap. I also agree that Julien is the 2B of the future or at least until Lee shows he can dominate at AAA (he hasn't yet even shown he's a good AAA hitter), when he might come up and force a move to 2B for Lewis. I would be ok trading Julien and have Polanco stay at 2B with Lee in the background but only for a higher end starter with multiple years of control. I don't know that Julien will fetch that even in a package with someone like Mercedes or Winder. I would not trade away Raya or Festa as part of a package for anything less than an established top of the rotation starter with at least 2 years of control. You don't trade your top pitching prospects unless you have a surfeit of young pitching. We don't.

Seattle is the best trade partner for us since they need a 2B (Polanco or Julien). I would explore Miller, Woo, and even Hancock as possibilities depending on the "plus" needed to go with a 2B to get them.  The plus is only from the Twins on Woo and Miller, Seattle adds the plus if we get Hancock. 

 

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18 hours ago, Linus said:

I like the Seattle trade. I would substitute Julien for Polanco and hopefully save Priellipp. If we are going to give up prospects let’s get a pitcher that will be a difference maker. Too many question marks with the other pitchers. 

I still don't know if that's enough. The ask should be massive there.

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7 hours ago, rv78 said:

So the Twins have the guys that can make pitchers better? Just a few tweaks and those middle of the pack rotation guys can be much better. If all it takes is a few tweaks other teams would do it. How about tweaking the pitchers we have and make them better. That would be cheaper. Sorry but those types of comments make me laugh.

Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Pablo Lopez weren't enough evidence?

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The Mariner trade may add up but they really sending three players on the 40 for one player. Those 40 man spots have value also. I don’t think they can match another teams offer for Gilbert without including either Lee, Jenkins or Lewis plus much more.

On 11/20/2023 at 12:16 PM, Ted Schwerzler said:

Proposed trade - Blackburn for Jovani Moran and Josh Winder (TVS says: Advantage OAK)

Moran was non-tendered.

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