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Matching Up With The Mariners


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10 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

While I would love to see the Twins add Kirby or Gilbert, I think the prospect cost will be too prohibitive. It probably starts with Lee or Julien and requires quality add ons beyond that. I don't think Polanco plus even Julien or Lee gets you either one. We'd have to add a quality pitching prospect like Raya. Starting pitching is the most expensive bauble on the shelf and Seattle isn't go to sell theirs below market value. 

On the other hand, Polanco plus might get you in the running for Woo, Hancock or Miller, the level dependent upon the plus. Woo might be had for Polanco, Larnach, and an SWR or 11-20 prospect, Hancock for maybe just Polanco with the Mariners throwing in a 20-30 prospect of their own. Miller is going to cost us Polanco, Larnach, plus someone better like Festa or even Prilepp or Varland. Frankly, I would do all of those deals for the pitching we need except I wouldn't trade Varland. 

I think we're all focusing too much on finding a #2 to replace Gray. I think the Twins think they already have that replacement in Paddack. He's not as good yet and will have an innings limit this year but I think they're going to roll with him, Ryan and Ober in the 2-4 spots. I suspect what they really want is a prospect on the way up type to compete with Varland for the #5 spot with upside in a trade. I think the plan might be to trade Polanco for a guy like that, say Hancock, and then sign a veteran with upside but question marks like our old friend Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas,  Severino, Seth Lugo, or even Brad Keller.  They can then use that vet in the #5 hole to start with Varland and the acquired prospect getting 10-15 starts apiece as an injury replacement in the hope one of them can establish himself as a mid-rotation guy going forward.  

I really agree with the positions taken in this post...except that I am not so sure about Paddack's sustainability and I haven't really been wowed by Ober. I think Ryan will be better than both and Maeda will be a much better pitcher if he can stay healthy (TJ surgery takes a bigger toll on the body than we would care to admit, so I would fully expect him to be full-strength by next spring), but I would still try to land a pitcher if Seattle is willing to deal.

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Not going to add to the Lee/Julien debate. There's too much to like about both to say you need to keep at least one. Lee, switch hitter, not quite there, but really close. Julien might be more dynamic as a batter, but less defensively. The roster doesn't die with either gone, because we have the other, and potentially the very good Polanco still available for 2 more years.

Stated in another thread that I think Seattle is a good partner for a trade. Does that trade include Gilbert or Kirby? And the cost is large. Or is it possible the Twins see something they really like in Miller, or the other mentioned arms of Hancock and Woo? AND, are the Twins looking for a more finished arm vs one needing a little more "work" but filled with potential?

And we don't know what the FO is thinking about the quality and potential of those other arms. But Seattle has a pipeline in place right now, and need offense. They also might be losing one of their better RH bats from last year as well.

I'm looking at this from the Mariners' perspective. Polanco is cost controlled for 2yrs and is a quality defender at 2B, and a quality person and performer. Larnach is an OK corner OF with a big arm. He's flashed, but has also struggled. But he's also shown enough that with 500 plate appearances, he could easily stroke 20HR and 30Dbls, even as a lower third bat if given the chance. IMO, the Mariners want bats that can help NOW, but considering the relative youth of their staff, they'd want a couple prospects as well. That's where discussion of E-Rod takes place. But there's also possible interest in Severino and a healthy and rebounding Miranda, and maybe a young bat like Mercedes to toss in, or the recent A+ MVP Rosario?

Severino is close. A healthy Miranda is already here. How much value do they want to place on a couple bats a couple years away?

Seattle can afford to trade a quality arm, the same way Miami could last year in Lopez. And they need bats. The Twins can offer bats, and some future bats. The organizations SEEM to be a fit. The question becomes cost. Julien/Lee AND E-Rod with some others lower in the system might be a little too steep from the Twins perspective and might have them looking at Miller. 

And I keep thinking about the Marlins again and previously posted ideas of Edward Cabrera, young and talented, that might come a little cheaper.

If I'm Seattle, I'd be really tempted to move one of my arms for Polanco and Larnach if I had a really nice sweetener in the deal. I'm trying to win NOW, but I want something more for one of my rotation arms. Rodriguez and Rosario are a couple years away, but tantalizing. Severino, on the other hand, has some of the same question marks they do, but is closer, is a switch hitter, and might have more flexibility for my roster. 

I'm holding out for Rodrigez or maybe Rosario, if I'm moving Gilbert or Kirby. I'm settling for less in regard to Miller or other. But if the Twins say no to E-Rod, but you get Polanco, Larnach, Severino, and your choice of Miranda or Mercedes for Gilbert/Kirby, I make the move. And then I pause for a moment and ask for BOTH Miranda and Mercedes. 

I want bats NOW. And I get that. And I get a high talent international signing that hasn't hit his upside yet, but he's a talented 5th player throw on.

I have a deep staff and system in place. I just added a stud 2B switch hitting, contact, powerful, clutch hitting 2B. And I added an OK defensive OF with power and potential who was a TOP prospect recently, and has shown flashes. 

These help me win NOW.

THEN, I've either added a 21yo top power hitting prospect who's a couple years away, OR, I've added another switch hitter with relatively equal splits and big time HR power who is just about ready to contribute at, potentially, 3 spots even though there might be some contact issues. And the Twins even threw in a talented milb OF prospect.

Just me rambling tonight. 

The partners make sense. But I'm not in charge of either FO.

Maybe the Twins pay less for Miller.

Maybe they dial up the Marlins again and get a talented arm like Cabrera for less, work with him, and look brilliant for a smaller trade that turned out huge for the Twins.

It seems the Mariners and Twins SHOULD be ideal partners. But I guess we'll see. 

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We actually don't know if the Twins are even open to trading any of their top prospects, or any of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lewis, or Wallner.

Seattle has the arms that interest many teams and it looks like they will dictate the terms if they are willing to make a trade of any of Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, or Woo. 

There are a couple of guys to sign .... Giolito, Severino .... but with demand so high these guys can/might push for 2-4 years at $10-18 M per year. So while Giolito would be an arm worth bringing in on a prove it one year deal at around $15M, Giolito may be a little shook by how his year ended and be seeking a longer term deal with guaranteed money. If he would take a one year deal, that could work out for the Twins.

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On 11/20/2023 at 12:34 PM, Doctor Gast said:

If Julien is considered as part of this INF logjam he's the one that should be traded this off season because Julien's value has pretty much peaked & he's expendable.

The preference for Lee over Julien is not based on comparable offensive metrics. First, Julien is the one with MLB experience and put up a nice 2.6 WAR IN 338 AB for the Twins, with an .839 OPS and a 130 OPS+.  He also had 170 ABs at AAA, with a .932 OPS.

Lee split time between AA and AAA last year and had an .808 OPS. Julien played at AA the prior year and had a .931 OPS. Lee has more defensive ability and positional flexibility, to be sure - but the offensive statistics favor Julien. The claim that he has somehow 'peaked' after 338 MLB ABs is, given his history in the major and minor leagues, baffling.

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All this discussion about Julien vs. Lee as long-term pieces, and which to trade, brings to mind the whole Buxton issue.

Consider:  If the Twins had the DH spot open, they could have 5 excellent IF's rostered with Lewis, Correa, Polanco, Julien and Kiriloff.  They would have the flexibility to rotate one of them to DH every game to minimize work load and keep everyone fresh. This would benefit Correa's PF, Lewis' knee, Kiriloff's wrist/shoulder, etc.

You still have Famer and Castro for injury backups. And Lee is waiting in the wings unless he forces the issue with Spring Training performance.

But Buxton needs to either play CF or stay on IR for all this to work.

Me, I would like to keep both Julien and Lee at this point and see what the Twins can find in FA pitching instead.

Roster construction is so much fun to speculate about.....

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Gilbert is the most interesting piece to me being his years of control.  With all those years of control you can afford to give up more for him.  Would Seattle take Polanco and a prospect?  Would they demand someone like Lee or Julien?  Should we be willing to part either?  There are no major 2nd base free agents, but if I was Seattle I would be looking for much more than Polanco and a prospect, unless it was a pitching prospect like Raya to help replace Gilbert down road, or I would want someone expected to be a long term solution at 2nd.  Someone like either Julien or Lee. 

I would be fine if we traded away Julien for Gilbert straight up.  It would be a similar type of deal we did last year.  Moved a lack luster defense guy, that has high upside on offense for a pitcher that in this case would fill a hole for hopefully 4 years. We could slot Polanco in until Lee ready to take over.  We would be selling high on Julien. He may be a very good MLB player for years, or he could be a rookie flash.  Remember we thought Miranda would be manning a position for years to come, now he is outside looking in after one bad injury season. 

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20 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Seatle is a nice target for our SP needs. But I disagree that Brook Lee is our best trade piece option. Lee is 2nd on my untouchable list, Lee is a future All-Star being so versatile at premium positions & hitting. I like Julien's bat but he wasn't on my list. FO will try to unload Polanco but they will ask about Julien ahead of him.

Because Polanco missed ST, needed an extra long time to recover from his abused knee injury, the extra conditioning (yet suffered from hamstring injury & reinjury & ankle injury afterwards), the vamping up & trying to find is rythym, last season didn't portray his true value. This season he'll start out 100% & we'll never get what a 100% Polanco is worth. It make much more sense to trade Polanco at the deadline, at this time we'll see where Lee is at & Polanco's value would greatly increase to where it should be. But it'd be hard to trade him when he's producing much like Kepler did this season.

If Julien is considered as part of this INF logjam he's the one that should be traded this off season because Julien's value has pretty much peaked & he's expendable.

How has Julien’s value peaked? He has always hit in the minors and had a great half season in the bigs, with both power and OPS number. I see a lot more upside for him, a young guy ascending offensively, with the hope that he is at least average defensively. 

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20 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Julien is far from proving he's the long term solution at 2B, I'm throwing my lot in with the guy that can play defense and not be platooned for. It's not close.

I started the article with a chuckle seeing Lee's picture, then the line about Julien brought it together.

Also Castillo was only 5/108? Just like a house we shoulda bought earlier.

I live in Cincinnati & when they were moving Mahle & Castillo I was preaching to focus on Castillo at whatever cost…….he’s electric! Mahle was/is mentally soft, continually pitching away from contact, too many pitches  & getting in trouble - then a HR.

Fortunately, we can sign a 6’5” durable guy with a great track record for the same $$ - Jordan Montgomery for 5 years & $115. Not as exciting to watch as Castillo but he gets guys out & he’s durable. ($20M x 2 & $25M x 3)

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2 hours ago, arby58 said:

The preference for Lee over Julien is not based on comparable metrics. First, Julien is the one with MLB experience and put up a nice 2.4 WAR IN 338 AB for the Twins, with an .839 OPS and a 130 OPS+.  He also had 170 ABs at AAA, with a .932 OPS.

Lee split time between AA and AAA last year and had an .808 OPS. Julien played at AA the prior year and had a .931 OPS. Lee has more defensive ability and positional flexibility, to be sure - but the offensive statistics favor Julien. The claim that he has somehow 'peaked' after 338 MLB ABs is, given his history in the major and minor leagues, baffling.

Agreed on the “peak value” assumption being awfully misguided. Nothing but praise from guys doing the games in playoffs - there’s something tangible there!

His relative awkwardness on defense v. a guy playing solid shortstop, solid defender - switch hitter (no platoon), is a big part of the critique I think.

You are right - he had a very good 1/2 season in the Show! I have a hard time seeing where he plays for Twins very far forward with us being stuck with Buxton at DH - realistically, he’s there for 5 years. The miraculous CF comeback is pretty slim IMO. He has never been healthy - DHing after surgery may change that, to Julien’s detriment.

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36 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

How has Julien’s value peaked? He has always hit in the minors and had a great half season in the bigs, with both power and OPS number. I see a lot more upside for him, a young guy ascending offensively, with the hope that he is at least average defensively. 

I'm not saying his hitting can't get better by striking out less, he may even hit a couple of more HRs or that he can't field better balls that are hit at him. I'm saying that he could improve a little on what he has done but his trade value will not be significantly effected. And the normal tendency would be that it'd trend lower.

Middle fielder criteria on defense is range, Julien doesn't have range so that'd disqualifies him as a mid-fielder (2B). I don't care how good his bat is or how well he fields balls that are hit at him. 

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43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

His relative awkwardness on defense v. a guy playing solid shortstop, solid defender - switch hitter (no platoon), is a big part of the critique I think.

Switch hitters are nice to have, but if there is a marked difference in performance on opposite sides of the plate, it's not such a great advantage. Last year, Lee had 458 ABs against RHP and an OPS of .860 with 14 home runs - that's good. He had 109 ABs against LHP and a .603 OPS with 2 HRs - not so good. He'll need to improve those numbers against LHPs for his switch hitting to be considered a material asset.

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8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Middle fielder criteria on defense is range, Julien doesn't have range so that'd disqualifies him as a mid-fielder (2B). I don't care how good his bat is or how well he fields balls that are hit at him. 

Jose Altuve's range factor/9 innings was 3.4 last year; Julien's was 3.67. The league average was 4.06. Sounds like that Altuve guy won't be playing second base anymore.

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11 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Switch hitters are nice to have, but if there is a marked difference in performance on opposite sides of the plate, it's not such a great advantage. Last year, Lee had 458 ABs against RHP and an OPS of .860 with 14 home runs - that's good. He had 109 ABs against LHP and a .603 OPS with 2 HRs - not so good. He'll need to improve those numbers against LHPs for his switch hitting to be considered a material asset.

I get it and the assumption from management and/or fans would be that he needs a lot more than 100 plus AB’s to sort out pitching at the MLB level. The thought was contrasting him to Julien, who most often would sit v. LH pitching. Now, he too may benefit by seeing more reps v. lefties. Currently though, if he’s sitting against LH & plays somewhat limited defense, long-term, Lee looks advantageous to many.

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It’s all fine and good to include Lee. I’m all for trading prospects for established players. Especially when you have an over abundance of a certain position. The problem is is Seattle is in win now mode. They want established veterans. Not prospects. Especially when they haven’t even debuted yet. Polanco/Kepler Emmanuel Rodriguez and Larnach are gonna be your guys to get a deal done for Gilbert. Hold onto Lee. Seattle isn’t in need of him.

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On 11/21/2023 at 6:14 PM, TNtwins85 said:

Polanco/Kepler Emmanuel Rodriguez and Larnach are gonna be your guys to get a deal done for Gilbert. Hold onto Lee. Seattle isn’t in need of him.

Seattle traded their third baseman today. Perhaps Lee is exactly what they want. Lee is a shortstop who profiles best as a third baseman. Lee may be less of a fielder at second base due to his lack of speed, although I believe he could handle the position if needed. Seattle only wants immediate outfield help, which makes for a substitute of Lee for E-Rod in your proposed deal. Or, perhaps Seattle wants Lewis instead of E-Rod in your deal. Plenty to consider.

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On 11/22/2023 at 10:45 PM, tony&rodney said:

Seattle traded their third baseman today. Perhaps Lee is exactly what they want. Lee is a shortstop who profiles best as a third baseman. Lee may be less of a fielder at second base due to his lack of speed, although I believe he could handle the position if needed. Seattle only wants immediate outfield help, which makes for a substitute of Lee for E-Rod in your proposed deal. Or, perhaps Seattle wants Lewis instead of E-Rod in your deal. Plenty to consider.

Now that they traded their high K high HR expensive 3B indeed it opens up a trade of Polo and Lee. Matches up with their eye on a higher contact hitter. Adds a little more value adding Lee allowing an easier road to acquire Gilbert. If they think Lee is ready to contribute opening day this trade is now almost perfect!

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