Matching Up With The Mariners

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins need a Sonny Gray replacement and have an upcoming logjam in the infield. The Seattle Mariners have a wealth of starting pitching. Could the two teams match up this offseason in a deal?

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners were reportedly willing to discuss trading some of their young pitching last trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why on their depth chart. With several younger arms emerging to complement some quality veteran options, they’re in a position where they may feel comfortable making a big move. The Twins have become surprising candidates for a big move in recent years. Perhaps the two sides could agree on a win-win deal this winter.

A few arms in Seattle can likely be ruled out immediately. Luis Castillo just began a five-year, $108m deal that takes him off the table. Robbie Ray was injured last season in year three of a five-year, $115m deal. His eventual return in 2024 may be a factor in the Mariners looking to deal an arm. It can also be assumed that this bunch has no cheap options. If a deal develops, the Twins will be parting with serious capital. It’s worth looking at each potential option and why they may be enticing to the Twins front office.

Logan Gilbert
With almost 400 innings in the last two seasons with low to mid 3s ERAs, Gilbert has established himself as a front-end starting pitcher at age 26. The only reason the Mariners would even consider parting ways with such an asset is that they have so many other quality pitchers who are even younger. Gilbert is an established workhorse that could bring tremendous value.

Controlled through 2028, Gilbert will be in arbitration into his 30s. Whichever organization Gilbert is in will control him for nearly all of his prime, and some believe he's capable of picking up a few more strikeouts, which would bring him to an even higher level. Gilbert would immediately fill Sonny Gray's shoes as the #2 behind Pablo Lopez, and the Twins would feel great penciling him into game two of a playoff series.

George Kirby
Kirby was more effective than Gilbert in 2023, throwing 190 innings with a 3.35 ERA. He’s certainly lived up to his first-round pedigree, as Kirby attacks the strike zone with a four-pitch mix and threw seven different pitches in 2023 at least once. The Twins have seen firsthand that when Kirby is on, he can make easy work of opposing lineups, and like Gilbert, there may be another level to his game when it comes to strikeouts as he matures.

Kirby would also be a legitimate #2 behind Lopez, and his pedigree includes tremendous health and dominance on the mound. At just 25 with team control through 2029, Kirby may cost even more than Gilbert, and it’s possible he’s not on the trade block at all.

Bryce Miller
Miller is certainly a step down from the top two in Seattle, but there’s a lot to like. His profile resemble's Joe Ryan's fastball-heavy approach, but Miller averages over 95 mph on the heater. His offspeed was a work in progress, but he sometimes dominated despite his decline in the 2nd half as he neared his innings cap. Miller finished the season with just over 130 innings, creating a floor to build off of in 2024. Being less established, Miller should cost less, but his six years of team control still won’t make him cheap.

Other Options
Seattle’s rotation also consists of younger names such as Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock, who only briefly debuted but carry pedigree and at least brief periods of success. It’s unlikely the Twins would take on such pitchers, but you never know what they may see that they could improve.

Marco Gonzalez is also still in Seattle, and despite his season-ending early due to forearm issues, he’s been a solid pitcher for the entirety of his career. Should the Twins look in that direction, he could be a cheap back end of the rotation option.

Cost
The Mariners need more exciting options, particularly at second base, for the near future. This makes the Twins a perfect trade match. Edouard Julien has proven he’s a long-term solution at the position, which raises questions regarding players such as Jorge Polanco and top prospect Brooks Lee.

With Polanco, as Twins fans know, the Mariners would get an immediate impact player at second base. Even with a reasonable $12m club option for 2025, the Twins would likely have to add significant prospect capital for someone on Gilbert or Kirby’s level. It would likely have to include a name like Emmanuel Rodriguez and other quality names. 

Brooks Lee could make up a significant part of a return if the Mariners are interested in him. It would be a big gamble on the Twins' part, but it could prove worthwhile if the Twins get a controllable Sonny Gray replacement in return.

A trade with Seattle for a controllable starting pitcher would likely be shopping at the high end of the trade market. Sonny Gray’s possible departure can’t be understated, and this is where the Twins have to look. A trade with the Mariners would surely cost several well-known names. Is it worth it to pick up a potential front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher?

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[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This has been a potential ideal partner.  I like Brooks Lee, and think he can be a good player and possibly a 1 to 2 time all star.  However the likelihood of him being more than that are slim.  If you can get a very strong pitcher while we still have immense depth in the infield you do it.  You may need to send a little more with him.  The question is, is that the player the Mariners want.  I can't judge that.  However the pool of teams willing to give up elite hitting prospects for pitching is likely pretty slim as well.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

Seattle is an interesting team, as they have a good amount of starting pitching. They also have some other interesting pieces too, including some right handed bats (namely Ty France?) and some interesting looking bullpen options.

That said, I'm not sure that the Twins will be open to trading Brooks Lee. I could be wrong. 

This offseason will be interesting. Thanks for laying this out.

[DJL44]

If the Twins are going to compete on the cheap now they have to sell old and expensive for young and cheap. That means dealing Polanco for talent that hasn't been proven yet but has potential to improve the team.

[mickster]

44 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

This has been a potential ideal partner.  I like Brooks Lee, and think he can be a good player and possibly a 1 to 2 time all star.  However the likelihood of him being more than that are slim.  If you can get a very strong pitcher while we still have immense depth in the infield you do it.  You may need to send a little more with him.  The question is, is that the player the Mariners want.  I can't judge that.  However the pool of teams willing to give up elite hitting prospects for pitching is likely pretty slim as well.   

I am in on parting with Lee and others to get Gilbert or Kirby.   Will take more, but should be seriously looked at.

[LA VIkes Fan]

While I would love to see the Twins add Kirby or Gilbert, I think the prospect cost will be too prohibitive. It probably starts with Lee or Julien and requires quality add ons beyond that. I don't think Polanco plus even Julien or Lee gets you either one. We'd have to add a quality pitching prospect like Raya. Starting pitching is the most expensive bauble on the shelf and Seattle isn't go to sell theirs below market value. 

On the other hand, Polanco plus might get you in the running for Woo, Hancock or Miller, the level dependent upon the plus. Woo might be had for Polanco, Larnach, and an SWR or 11-20 prospect, Hancock for maybe just Polanco with the Mariners throwing in a 20-30 prospect of their own. Miller is going to cost us Polanco, Larnach, plus someone better like Festa or even Prilepp or Varland. Frankly, I would do all of those deals for the pitching we need except I wouldn't trade Varland. 

I think we're all focusing too much on finding a #2 to replace Gray. I think the Twins think they already have that replacement in Paddack. He's not as good yet and will have an innings limit this year but I think they're going to roll with him, Ryan and Ober in the 2-4 spots. I suspect what they really want is a prospect on the way up type to compete with Varland for the #5 spot with upside in a trade. I think the plan might be to trade Polanco for a guy like that, say Hancock, and then sign a veteran with upside but question marks like our old friend Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas,  Severino, Seth Lugo, or even Brad Keller.  They can then use that vet in the #5 hole to start with Varland and the acquired prospect getting 10-15 starts apiece as an injury replacement in the hope one of them can establish himself as a mid-rotation guy going forward.  

[arby58]

38 minutes ago, mickster said:

I am in on parting with Lee and others to get Gilbert or Kirby.   Will take more, but should be seriously looked at.

Agree on Lee. He may well become a very good player, but Julien showed that he was already close to that level - and his performance was at the MLB level. If you take Julien's 338 at bats, 60 runs, and 16 home runs and project it over 500 at bats, you get 89 runs scored and 24 home runs - pretty good for a lead-off hitter who had an .839 OPS and 130 OPS+. Julien looks like the 2B, Correa is at SS and Lewis at 3B. Granted, there are always concerns about depth, but if Lee and another decent prospect (much as I like Severino, he might be the other piece) get you there for a #2 starting pitcher? I'd do it.

[arby58]

34 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

While I would love to see the Twins add Kirby or Gilbert, I think the prospect cost will be too prohibitive. It probably starts with Lee or Julien and requires quality add ons beyond that. I don't think Polanco plus even Julien or Lee gets you either one. We'd have to add a quality pitching prospect like Raya. Starting pitching is the most expensive bauble on the shelf and Seattle isn't go to sell theirs below market value. 

I'm not so sure Seattle would want starting pitching back - or why trade a sure thing starting pitcher in the first place? I'm more inclined to think they would want two position players. If that is the case, Jenkins is untouchable, and Rodriguez strikes me as having huge upside potential. After that, it starts getting negotiable.

[specialiststeve]

32 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

While I would love to see the Twins add Kirby or Gilbert, I think the prospect cost will be too prohibitive. It probably starts with Lee or Julien and requires quality add ons beyond that. I don't think Polanco plus even Julien or Lee gets you either one. We'd have to add a quality pitching prospect like Raya. Starting pitching is the most expensive bauble on the shelf and Seattle isn't go to sell theirs below market value. 

On the other hand, Polanco plus might get you in the running for Woo, Hancock or Miller, the level dependent upon the plus. Woo might be had for Polanco, Larnach, and an SWR or 11-20 prospect, Hancock for maybe just Polanco with the Mariners throwing in a 20-30 prospect of their own. Miller is going to cost us Polanco, Larnach, plus someone better like Festa or even Prilepp or Varland. Frankly, I would do all of those deals for the pitching we need except I wouldn't trade Varland. 

I think we're all focusing too much on finding a #2 to replace Gray. I think the Twins think they already have that replacement in Paddack. He's not as good yet and will have an innings limit this year but I think they're going to roll with him, Ryan and Ober in the 2-4 spots. I suspect what they really want is a prospect on the way up type to compete with Varland for the #5 spot with upside in a trade. I think the plan might be to trade Polanco for a guy like that, say Hancock, and then sign a veteran with upside but question marks like our old friend Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas,  Severino, Seth Lugo, or even Brad Keller.  They can then use that vet in the #5 hole to start with Varland and the acquired prospect getting 10-15 starts apiece as an injury replacement in the hope one of them can establish himself as a mid-rotation guy going forward.  

Looking at Seatles depth chart and prospects we seem to match up well. Seems they could use a 2B and a RF. 

If we could flip Both Polaco and Kepler with may be a Prilepp for Miller or Woo I do it today. Miller is cost effective with good stuff. We have a plethera of OF waiting in line and one of them should be able to fill both spots! 

[Doctor Gast]

Seatle is a nice target for our SP needs. But I disagree that Brook Lee is our best trade piece option. Lee is 2nd on my untouchable list, Lee is a future All-Star being so versatile at premium positions & hitting. I like Julien's bat but he wasn't on my list. FO will try to unload Polanco but they will ask about Julien ahead of him.

Because Polanco missed ST, needed an extra long time to recover from his abused knee injury, the extra conditioning (yet suffered from hamstring injury & reinjury & ankle injury afterwards), the vamping up & trying to find is rythym, last season didn't portray his true value. This season he'll start out 100% & we'll never get what a 100% Polanco is worth. It make much more sense to trade Polanco at the deadline, at this time we'll see where Lee is at & Polanco's value would greatly increase to where it should be. But it'd be hard to trade him when he's producing much like Kepler did this season.

If Julien is considered as part of this INF logjam he's the one that should be traded this off season because Julien's value has pretty much peaked & he's expendable.

[Jocko87]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Seatle is a nice target for our SP needs. But I disagree that Brook Lee is our best trade piece option. Lee is 2nd on my untouchable list, Lee is a future All-Star being so versatile at premium positions & hitting. I like Julien's bat but he wasn't on my list. FO will try to unload Polanco but they will ask about Julien ahead of him.

Because Polanco missed ST, needed an extra long time to recover from his abused knee injury, the extra conditioning (yet suffered from hamstring injury & reinjury & ankle injury afterwards), the vamping up & trying to find is rythym, last season didn't portray his true value. This season he'll start out 100% & we'll never get what a 100% Polanco is worth. It make much more sense to trade Polanco at the deadline, at this time we'll see where Lee is at & Polanco's value would greatly increase to where it should be. But it'd be hard to trade him when he's producing much like Kepler did this season.

If Julien is considered as part of this INF logjam he's the one that should be traded this off season because Julien's value has pretty much peaked & he's expendable.

Julien is far from proving he's the long term solution at 2B, I'm throwing my lot in with the guy that can play defense and not be platooned for. It's not close.

I started the article with a chuckle seeing Lee's picture, then the line about Julien brought it together.

Also Castillo was only 5/108? Just like a house we shoulda bought earlier.

[Doctor Gast]

40 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Julien is far from proving he's the long term solution at 2B, I'm throwing my lot in with the guy that can play defense and not be platooned for. It's not close.

I started the article with a chuckle seeing Lee's picture, then the line about Julien brought it together.

Also Castillo was only 5/108? Just like a house we shoulda bought earlier.

My sentiments exactly on all you said.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Julien is far from proving he's the long term solution at 2B, I'm throwing my lot in with the guy that can play defense and not be platooned for. It's not close.

I started the article with a chuckle seeing Lee's picture, then the line about Julien brought it together.

Also Castillo was only 5/108? Just like a house we shoulda bought earlier.

Julien has outperformed Lee at every level.  I think he is pretty locked in.  Add in his improvement on defense,  unless the Twins are blown away with a deal,  you don't trade away a top 10-11 obp and top 25 OPS player unless getting ample return back.   Unless you think he will regress but he has been incredibly consistent moving up the levels.  As he gains more name recognition he may start getting a few more of those close calls as well.  

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Julien has outperformed Lee at every level.  I think he is pretty locked in.  Add in his improvement on defense,  unless the Twins are blown away with a deal,  you don't trade away a top 10-11 obp and top 25 OPS player unless getting ample return back.   Unless you think he will regress but he has been incredibly consistent moving up the levels.  As he gains more name recognition he may start getting a few more of those close calls as well.  

Lee has been a pro for one year.... Exactly what are you expecting? He's a consensus top twenty prospect in the entire game. 

[tony&rodney]

The key is an unknown. Who or what does Seattle want? 

St. Louis wants a Seattle pitcher but the only guy that interests the Mariners is Jordan Walker. Tough deal.

The Twins are in a place where they can play it safe or take a shot. Like last offseason, any high stakes deal will raise eyebrows. 

I do believe that the price will remain high and possibly even go higher as free agents sign. If a trade is going to happen, earlier is better. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lee has been a pro for one year.... Exactly what are you expecting? He's a consensus top twenty prospect in the entire game. 

Mike,  Lee is a great prospect and we were lucky to get him.  However I would say the exact same thing about Julien.  Both have a high trade value in the calculator,  but I think Juliens bat will be better than Lee.  That isn't anything to sneeze at,  and maybe Lee will be better.  When you look at their stats though they have followed the exact same trajectory and at similar levels at a similar age and Julien did better at each level.  What does that say,  its that there is bias in the rankings.  What I am looking at is we don't have enough positions for all our infielders unless 1 moves to 1st or DH.   I would be fine with having another great contact hitter on the team.  I also recognize that one of the 2 is a likely trade candidate.   

[TwinsDr2021]

24 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Julien has outperformed Lee at every level.  I think he is pretty locked in.  Add in his improvement on defense,  unless the Twins are blown away with a deal,  you don't trade away a top 10-11 obp and top 25 OPS player unless getting ample return back.   Unless you think he will regress but he has been incredibly consistent moving up the levels.  As he gains more name recognition he may start getting a few more of those close calls as well.  

At age 22 Julien was playing in both A ball leagues, Lee was AA and AAA, I don't think that equals outperformed at every level?

[tony&rodney]

Only time will settle any debates about whether Lee or Julien are more suitable for future Twins teams. I would expect that this conversation is going on within the Twins front office. 

There are good arguments to be made in favor of both players. Who knows maybe the Twins keep both ... and trade Lewis (gulp).

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

59 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

At age 22 Julien was playing in both A ball leagues, Lee was AA and AAA, I don't think that equals outperformed at every level?

If you want to look purely at age due to him losing his 2020 season to Covid, fine that is your prerogative.   Juliens second year of playing he played primarily in AA no different than Lee.   If you want to look at small sample size though Julien did much better than Lee's in AAA in a similar amount of at bats.  All I am saying is Julien was very much underrated coming up through the system and  I think Lee is slightly overrated, but that he is a very good looking prospect and has a very very high floor.  Lee has performed well at every level and I expect him to do very well in AAA this year.  He will be a very solid major leaguer.  There is nothing wrong with that.  Julien has had a higher OPS and OBP at every level, whether you want to scoff at it or qualify it that is fine.  The only major differentiator is Lee plays a premium position at SS and will likely be a 3rd baseman.  The issue is we have Lewis there right now.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Only time will settle any debates about whether Lee or Julien are more suitable for future Twins teams. I would expect that this conversation is going on within the Twins front office. 

There are good arguments to be made in favor of both players. Who knows maybe the Twins keep both ... and trade Lewis (gulp).

Or do the unthinkable and trade Correa.   However I don't think thats likely especially with the no trade clause,  just saying.  I think his postseason did answer a lot of questions though and he had a healthy season which makes his contract seem pretty reasonable now.  

 

[GNess]

It would be tough to part with either Lee or Julien. But at least the Twins have these sorts of young talents with which to help swing a deal for a quality SP and still have one of them remaining on the roster.

[Linus]

Lee is a switch hitter who is a plus defender. Julien is a good hitter but is only the strong side of a platoon and his defense is sub par.  I would take Lee 10 times out of 10

[Jocko87]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If you want to look purely at age due to him losing his 2020 season to Covid, fine that is your prerogative.   Juliens second year of playing he played primarily in AA no different than Lee.   If you want to look at small sample size though Julien did much better than Lee's in AAA in a similar amount of at bats.  All I am saying is Julien was very much underrated coming up through the system and  I think Lee is slightly overrated, but that he is a very good looking prospect and has a very very high floor.  Lee has performed well at every level and I expect him to do very well in AAA this year.  He will be a very solid major leaguer.  There is nothing wrong with that.  Julien has had a higher OPS and OBP at every level, whether you want to scoff at it or qualify it that is fine.  The only major differentiator is Lee plays a premium position at SS and will likely be a 3rd baseman.  The issue is we have Lewis there right now.  

Was Lee exempt from Covid?

I don't think anyone is taking anything away from Julien here, he is a success story in any way you can look at it.  He has never been higher than a top 15 prospect in the Twins org that I can find.  I was looking back a found this gem, we have known exactly who he is for a long time now.  I don't know why we would expect him to change.  He's pretty close to his ceiling.

 

Brooks Lee has been a consensus top 10-20 global prospect at a premium position since the day he was drafted.  He is a plus bat from both sides of the plate and can play defense anywhere you put him in the infield.  He doesn't ever have to leave the field.  Julien is a black hole against lefties and needs a Farmer on the bench wherever he is.  His only tool is his bat and good managers can take that away from him.

The value between the two is not close.  It is the closest it will ever be right now though. 

I will add that I watched both in person several times in Wichita.  I'm not a scout by any means but I watch a LOT of baseball in person (I also ump 100+ games a year).  I also watched most of the Royals championship squad come through back in the day.  While I was never very impressed with Julien at AA (OPS .931 I'm aware) for whatever reasons, Lee operates on a different level that is on par with anyone I've seen through here.  Completely subjective, for sure, but in this case my eyes agree with every talent evaluator in the business.  Yay, me!

 

 

 

[cmoss84]

Lee for Kirby feels a lot like Jazz Chisholm for Zach Gallon.

[Major League Ready]

The Mariners are not trading Kirby unless they get an absolutely absurd haul.  How many examples can we come up with where a pitcher with Kirby's profile was traded by a team entering a window of contention.  There is probably no more than one or two examples if any that would be reasonable comps in the last 20 years.  We did not get Alcantara or Perez from Miami.  The Twins got a guy that had been a mid-rotation guy that they obviously believed had upside.  Seattle is a great trade partner but Miller, Hancock or Woo will be much more likely to be traded.   Seattle is in a strong position to contend and they don't need to trade a proven elite SP to get hitting.  That can be done by trading away one of the other three or free agency.  Put the shoe on the other foot.  If the twins were in their position we would all be saying absolutely no way should they give up Kirby when one of Hancock, Woo or Miller will bring back a great hitter.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

Lee for Kirby feels a lot like Jazz Chisholm for Zach Gallon.

Relatively fair comparison. Jazz is still developing as a player and Zac Gallen is a fine pitcher.

Due to SP demand right now, the Twins might need to add a player like Kepler.

 

[cmoss84]

26 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Relatively fair comparison. Jazz is still developing as a player and Zac Gallen is a fine pitcher.

Due to SP demand right now, the Twins might need to add a player like Kepler.

 

Jazz would be 20/40 every year but can't stay healthy. But sure, I'll throw Max in...Kirby is a stud.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

You have to give to get.  This is an ideal team to trade with due to both team's quality and areas of depth.  The Twins should definitely be having talks with the Mariners.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If you want to look purely at age due to him losing his 2020 season to Covid, fine that is your prerogative.   Juliens second year of playing he played primarily in AA no different than Lee.   If you want to look at small sample size though Julien did much better than Lee's in AAA in a similar amount of at bats.  All I am saying is Julien was very much underrated coming up through the system and  I think Lee is slightly overrated, but that he is a very good looking prospect and has a very very high floor.  Lee has performed well at every level and I expect him to do very well in AAA this year.  He will be a very solid major leaguer.  There is nothing wrong with that.  Julien has had a higher OPS and OBP at every level, whether you want to scoff at it or qualify it that is fine.  The only major differentiator is Lee plays a premium position at SS and will likely be a 3rd baseman.  The issue is we have Lewis there right now.  

Lee hasn't even had a full second year yet. I don't know if he's going to be great or not, but this was his first full year as a pro, and he's in AAA....

[Aerodeliria]

9 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Seatle is a nice target for our SP needs. But I disagree that Brook Lee is our best trade piece option. Lee is 2nd on my untouchable list, Lee is a future All-Star being so versatile at premium positions & hitting. I like Julien's bat but he wasn't on my list. FO will try to unload Polanco but they will ask about Julien ahead of him.

Because Polanco missed ST, needed an extra long time to recover from his abused knee injury, the extra conditioning (yet suffered from hamstring injury & reinjury & ankle injury afterwards), the vamping up & trying to find is rythym, last season didn't portray his true value. This season he'll start out 100% & we'll never get what a 100% Polanco is worth. It make much more sense to trade Polanco at the deadline, at this time we'll see where Lee is at & Polanco's value would greatly increase to where it should be. But it'd be hard to trade him when he's producing much like Kepler did this season.

If Julien is considered as part of this INF logjam he's the one that should be traded this off season because Julien's value has pretty much peaked & he's expendable.

I don't think Julien has peaked. He's only played half a season with the big boys. I expect his hitting against lefties to improve dramatically in the next year and I believe, he will become a bit more aggressive as a leadoff hitter. He will also improve as  fielder. He started showing signs of his potential skills in the field as the season progressed. To me, it is he who is untouchable, or if he is traded, we ask a ton for him.