Prospect Dilemma: Should the Twins Roll the Dice on a Pete Alonso Trade?

[RpR]

Joey Gallo is cheaper.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

How much is Alonso going to cost to re-sign? Could you take Polanco and Kepler's money and turn it into 6 years of Alonso? If yes, then I'd do this trade.

I agree with the idea that frontline pitching should be the Twins #1 priority this offseason, but I'd do this trade if it is available and they can extend Alonso for between 20 and 25 per year for 6 years. For reference Matt Olsen just signed for 22 a year, Goldschmidt got 26, and Freeman is at 27.

I think his .205 BABIP in 2023 was an outlier and he gets back to being a .260-.270 hitter with 40 homeruns a year. Which is exactly what the Twins need to plug into their 3 or 4 hole for the next 6 years.

I don’t get the predicting of guys stats to change for the better, or for the worse depending upon what we want to happen. We can hope they go one way or the other but have no idea & neither do they. You could have said the same thing about Kepler and his return to form at beginning of ‘21 & again at beginning of ‘22…….nobody thought fans would rally around him now, at the end of May ‘23. Nobody knows.

I know Alonso hit .217 & struck out over 150 times - the impression I have is we already tied for the league lead in HR……& the league lead for K’s.

Nobody’s paying part of his salary to take him!

We can’t sign him at a minimum of $25M going forward.

He’s a lower value with a one year stint being the ceiling.

Moot point to justify IMO.

I’d trade Polanco to free up his $10.5M & focus those $$ on pitching.

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t get the predicting of guys stats to change for the better, or for the worse depending upon what we want to happen. We can hope they go one way or the other but have no idea & neither do they. You could have said the same thing about Kepler and his return to form at beginning of ‘21 & again at beginning of ‘22…….nobody thought fans would rally around him now, at the end of May ‘23. Nobody knows.

I know Alonso hit .217 & struck out over 150 times - the impression I have is we already tied for the league lead in HR……& the league lead for K’s.

Nobody’s paying part of his salary to take him!

We can’t sign him at a minimum of $25M going forward.

He’s a lower value with a one year stint being the ceiling.

Moot point to justify IMO.

I’d trade Polanco to free up his $10.5M & focus those $$ on pitching.

This article is literally about predicting what both Alonso and ERod do moving forward. I don't know why you don't get that. I predict his stats will bounce back to career norms whether he's with the Twins, the Mets, or one of the 28 other teams. It has nothing to do with "what (I) want to happen," it's simply what I expect. He had a .205 BABIP last year. That's extremely low for any hitter let alone a guy who's usually in the .275 range. Yes, he struck out 150 times, but that, as the article said, is basically league average at just 22.9%. He has multiple seasons below 20% K rate. Just looking at his 150 Ks and implying he's a K machine is inaccurate.

I didn't ask anyone to pay any of his salary to take him. Why can't we sign him for 25M moving forward? That's Kepler, Farmer, and Polanco with some left over. All I'm told by you and others on these boards is that the kids are here and we don't need the vets anymore so we should have money to spend while the kids are all arb and pre-arb. Shoot, there's people on this very thread saying we don't need Alonso cuz we have Kirilloff. Are you confused by them predicting Kirilloff has his first healthy MLB season ever while hitting better than he's ever hit at that level? 

I'm happy that's what you'd do. That'll make an offense that is already not good enough for the playoffs even worse, but they do need another pitcher. I don't expect them to trade for Alonso, but it's what I'd do.

[SteveLV]

I would do this deal if the price was reasonable.  I would not give up ERod, but would consider a package of other players. The reason I feel the Twins need to keep ERod is due to Buxton's health, or lack thereof.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Considering the Mets have already come out and said Alonso is not on the market, I am not sure where this article is coming from...

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

Never in a million years am I trading Emmanuel for Pete. Ever. And he'll certainly hit better than .210. I'll bet my house on it. 

[Scott51104]

Doc:

"I am NOT saying anyone on the Twins will be as good as him, but, there are some guys like Lewis and Kirilloff that have a chance to be regular, heart of the order type of hitters with 22-35HR power to go along with solid AVG and OB ability. (Wallner to a degree as well maybe??) And they are all younger and more cost controlled."

and Julien

[Kipp35]

I know a lot of people are saying "no" to this idea saying that we need to keep our young talent and focus elsewhere [pitching]. And, although I totally agree with going after pitching, I will say, we know what we would be getting with Alonzo. He would not be a reclamation project (Gallo), he is not a wait and see 'prospect'. He is a pure hitter that we know we can insert into this lineup, and not only will he rake, but he will also be in the lineup all season long... unlike someone collecting a check (Buxton). Alonzo had a down year in BA (.217), but his previous two seasons were .271 and .262, that would have slotted him at the top of this team...

If we could acquire Alonzo for E Rod, I would do it! Especially if we could follow it up with a deal for Polonco and Festa to MIL for Burnes. Burnes is owed $10mm and so is Polonco, it would be a wash and we could keep a frontline starter for another year, to replace Sonny Gray. Yes, we would then have two premier players on one-year deals, but it will keep us winning and in contention while we work out another TV deal.

If the Twins go backward too much in the name of saving money, they will lose far more revenue in tickets, merchandise and advertisements than their figures are telling them they will.

[bigdave]

Why trade away prospects for Alonso? Sign Rhys Hopkins. Break the wallet open!