Prospect Dilemma: Should the Twins Roll the Dice on a Pete Alonso Trade?

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins have a good roster, but with potentially very little money to spend, as they start preparing for 2024. The Mets happen to be owned by a fellow with a lot of money who loves dynamic outfield prospects. Could a trade of Emmanuel Rodriguez for Pete Alonso make sense?

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have a real team here. However, they fell short against the Astros, outclassed in their ability to take a professional at-bat. In addition to replacing the likely departing Sonny Gray, the Twins will have to decide whether adding a middle-of-the-lineup bat is worth pursuing.

They could, and perhaps should, decide to allow the needed offensive improvement to come from within. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin will hopefully steal at-bats away from whatever middling veterans the Twins sign/retain. They will get a full season from Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Byron Buxton might reemerge, and there isn’t much reason to doubt Carlos Correa’s track record. Maybe we’ll see more of catcher-OPS-leader Ryan Jeffers.

Still, that doesn’t sound particularly imposing unless all of those players play to their 85th percentile or so of performance, while all staying healthy.

So it might make sense to add an established, durable bat. The problem is, the Twins may not have any money to spend, given their uncertain TV-rights situation. So they would either need to drop significant salary by trading Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, or acquire a cheaper player that may cost a ransom in prospect capital from their middling farm system.

Or maybe there is another way. Steve Cohen is still owner of the Mets, and may have a solution to the Twins conundrum that comes cheap salary-wise, while not costing their entire collection of top 100 prospects.

The established bat in question is first baseman Pete Alonso. All five of his seasons have resulted in an OPS+ over 120. His lowest number of games played is 152 (he played 57 in 2020). His career platoon splits are separated by one hundredth of a percent. He has averaged 45 home runs per 162 games for his career, and while that may lead you to believe he is strikeout prone, that isn’t entirely true. His career strikeout rate is below the league average at 22.3% (vs 22.9% for the league). He has had multiple seasons in which he struck out under 20% of the time, pretty impressive for someone with that kind of power.

Alonso will be 29 next year, in his final arbitration season. MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a hefty 22M salary. How would the cash-strapped Twins absorb that kind of salary?

By trading away a prospect that catches Cohen’s eye.

You see, Cohen is obsessed with building up his farm system, and has shown he is okay with throwing tens of millions of dollars to expedite the process, focusing on quality over quantity. He paid the Rangers 64M to take on the last year and a half of Max Scherzer’s contract in exchange for top prospect Luisangel Acuna, and the Astros got another 64M in exchange for Justin Verlander and their best prospect, Drew Gilbert.

According to MLB.com, Gilbert ranks as the 52nd best overall prospect, while Acuna ranks 38th. In between them at 48th sits Emmanuel Rodriguez, the Twins’ third best prospect. It would seem to me that Cohen and his new PBO David Stearns, would be interested in acquiring a potential superstar slugger in Rodriguez in exchange for a player they don’t appear to be building around on an expiring salary. Chipping in 15M to make it happen would be pretty on brand, as well. Publicly, the Mets have expressed a desire to keep Alonso, however they were very direct towards Scherzer and Verlander in saying that 2024 will constitute a "competitive rebuild", leading to both pitchers agreeing to a trade. With Alonso a free agent in a year, he should be available.

Rodriguez for one year of Alonso is still pretty risky. It's possible the “Polar Bear” would love playing for the Twins and be open to an extension a la Paul Goldschmidt with the Cardinals. But the reality is that any Alonso acquisition would likely be a one year pit stop for the slugger, while Rodriguez could debut as soon as 2024.

And Rodriguez may be underrated at 48th best. Other publications have him ranked closer to the top 25, with immense power potential and elite strike zone recognition. His defense probably won’t be a major strength, but he runs pretty well and hit a huge grand slam in Cedar Rapids’ championship-clinching win a month ago. He’s been described as having a Max Muncy-type offensive profile, which paired with any sort of serviceable outfield defense and speed would be hugely valuable.

But it probably means a batting average in the .210s, and that’s if things break right. If Rodriguez doesn’t adjust to the league and can’t get to his power, he’ll join a long list of failed power prospects who dominated the minor leagues but just had too many holes in their swing to thrive at the major league level.

Brooks Lee is pretty much assured of being at least as good as, say, Gordon Beckham (terrible outcome, but rosterable), while Walker Jenkins could be Bryce Harper for all we know.

We know prospects like Rodriguez flame out a lot, regardless of how great the farm system is. Some of the Muncy types make too little contact to matter, like the most recent iterations of Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo. Some guys are too passive at the plate, like the Twins were worried about with Edouard Julien. We also know the Twins have a somewhat similar player to Rodriguez in Matt Wallner, who has shown he can make at least some adjustments in the majors.

To be clear, players like Rodriguez should be close to untouchable, but given the Mets' focus on stocking their minor league system with talent quickly, it might make more sense in this moment then it ever has to dangle him for a hitter like Alonso.

What do you think? Would you pull the trigger on a trade like this one?

 

 

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[srlarson]

no...enough of guys hitting around the mendoza line.... don't care how many home runs he hits.....if you cannot hit .250 you better be a backup catcher (defensive Specialist) or a gold glove SS.........rest of the positions need to hit.....

The Twins need to step up their payroll.....regardless of TV deal.....run at a loss for a few years until it gets sorted out.....otherwise we will slide back to the level of KC and the White Sox!!  

 

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I don’t think the Mets would need to pay down his salary to make this trade from their end, but I see why the Twins need salary relief. 
 

We could issue a Qualifying Offer at the end of next season when Alonso walks.

[Karbo]

I say no at this point. 1 year of Alonso just isn't worth the price. With payroll needing to be trimmed I would rather see the pitching get the priority for spending. I would love to see him in a Twins uniform, but this doesn't seem like the right time.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm sorry Hans, I'd pass on Alonzo. I'd love to have a pure hitter like Alonzo but I'd hate to give up E Rod for one year of Alonzo & I'd sooner have a whole team like Alonzo which means focusing on changing our philosophy that drafts, signs, encourages & horde these type of hitters with holes in their swings.

[NishiokaStan]

Dreamland is where the Twins ownership opens up the pocketbook just a little and doesn't cut back after a really promising season.

Here in reality, I think I'd rather keep this wave of prospects together and try and ride them to a period of sustained success, rather than give one up for a guy we almost certainly won't pony up the cash to extend - even if he wants to stay. If I were to give up one of our top 3 guys, it'd have to be for a frontline SP with 2+ years of control.

[tony&rodney]

No to an addition of Alonso. I'm thinking that the Twins get some good years at a nice price from Alex Kirilloff. One year of a three true outcomes player, no thanks.

[Otaknam]

If they think Alonso is the missing piece for a serious playoff run then it makes some sense. They could use a right handed bat. But I’m not a fan of giving up a top prospect for one year of Alonso, even if the Mets cover half the contract cost. The priority should be to add a frontline starter first. 

[TopGunn#22]

I'm interested in Alonso.  He's RH power and a 1B to boot.  There is no way I'm trading Emm-Rod for him though, especially for one year.  I would look to offer the following trade as I posted to BBTV.

Twins get:  Pete Alonso 12.0  29 years old.  FA after the 2024 season.  12.0 total value.

Mets get:  Jose Miranda 5.1  26 yo  Trevor Larnach 5.5  27 yo  Kala 'i Rosario 2,2  21 yo.  12.8 Total value.

The Twins would have to decide if they are willing to offer Alonso a contract for 6-7 years taking him to his age 36 or 37 season.  It would be nice having 45 HR's and 100+ RBI's for several years in the middle of a Twins lineup.  

But Alonso is NOT fetching a prospect the quality of Emm-Rod from the Twins or a similar one from anybody else.  Especially as a possible one year rental.  

[rv78]

No. At this point I roll with Kirilloff at 1B. If and I know that's a big IF, he can stay healthy and get a full season in, he's a .270, 20HR, 80RBI hitter. A #2 Starter and the problem in CF is a bigger concern.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

It doesn't even fit with the Twins MO.  They are not looking for 1 year stop gaps, and trading away a very good prospect to get that stopgap.  

Alonso is a good power hitter, but not perfect,  he is the type of player the Twins like, and maybe the Twins would do it to get a draft pick after a qualifying offer.  In the grand scheme of things its just not likely.  The Twins don't have a ton of cash to throw around and they still need at least 1 more starting pitcher.  

We have likely enough hitters in house,  its still moving them around,  and possibly finding 1 to 2 hitters that can fit in well.  The primary focus this offseason should be on finding a #2 to pair with Pablo.  

[specialiststeve]

With the financial restraints we are facing ... not happening. Besides that giving up a top end prospect for a 1 year rental at this point seems like a poor choice. 

[saviking]

I do think Alonso is possibly the missing link to making a run at the World Series next year. That said, Emm-Rod is a quality centerfielder and that is a critical position going forward unless you think Buxton can shake the injury bug ..

[Parfigliano]

No to Alonso.  Priority should be SP.

[MTV]

I’m surprised at how many people are against a Pete Alonso Trade. Sure, he puts up a low batting average, and this team could use some more contact hitters, but we don’t need just batting average, we need some serious players on offense.
 

No player has eclipsed 70 RBIs in the past 2 seasons on this team, and has been missing a true cleanup hitter since Nelly left. Alonso is a consistent powerhouse and has provided 250 RBIs over the past 2 seasons, he’s an RBI machine. I do also think at least some power should come back, especially if Polanco/Kepler are getting traded this off-season. Alonso would fit perfectly into this lineup at a position of need if we acquired him.

 

For acquiring Alonso, I definitely wouldn’t put any of our top-5 prospects on the line for a 1-year 1B. However, I wouldn’t be opposed to trading away Larnach, Kirilloff or Miranda for Alonso and package one of them with a decent prospect if New York could eat some of Alonso’s contract. With all that being said I’m on the fence about it. I think bringing in Alonso would be a great move, but I also would respect the FO for signing/trading for a cheaper 1B option and seeing how Kirilloff/Miranda play out in 2024, because signing one of Walker/Alonso/Goldy when they hit Free Agency in 2025 would be huge, and one of the reasons the team is cutting cost this year.

[Trov]

I am not trading a guy that is a top prospect for a 1 year rental.  That is how teams get to have many years of bad teams because they sell all long term options for short term possible fixes. 

[PatPfund]

Nope. The Twins have in-house solutions at 1B (Kirilloff won a Player of the Month while healthy last year, and the last time Miranda was healthy, he was one of the most dangerous bats in the lineup). And Alonso is a pure rental.

I don't think Rodriguez is untouchable at all, but I think the Twins aren't shipping prime prospects out for anything but pitching this offseason.

[jmlease1]

If the only way to acquire a player like Alonso is to overpay with prospect capital so the other team will eat some salary, then it's a non-starter for me. And I do think dealing a global top-50 prospect for a one-year rental is an overpay. He's a nice fit on the team, playing 1B and DH with his RH power bat (and I would expect his BA to bounce back some), but the payroll issue makes it challenging. 

And I'm just not sure the Mets would even be interested. Who knows what their plan is right now, and while I'm sure they'd like to get a top-50 prospect, they also play in NY where total rebuilds don't go over very well. they moved out players that were really old last season, not guys under 30 and they still have talent on the squad. I think it's more likely they sign Alonso to long-term extension as a partner for Lindor and bridge to the future than try to send him along for a prospect.

The other issue of course is the Twins need to have have prospects like ER graduate from the system and be the next wave of stars or the project is not sustainable. 1B isn't enough of a need to jeopardize that. i don't think this FO would risk that move for anything other than cost-controlled starting pitching. Can't say I blame them.

[Whitey333]

No way on this one. No top prospects for a one year rental.  We need starting pitching and a center fielder.  Byron who?

[SotaSports]

Hans draws a nice comparison with Cohen's prospect-buying ways. I'm not entirely opposed to this trade, considering we could issue a QO at the end of the year. I agree we could use another middle-of-the-order bat to help out the youngsters, but I'm more inclined to use this kind of trade for a front line starter.

[MABB1959]

Every year at this time we watch other teams wheel and deal.  Twins won't get in the mix until most of the good players are picked through

[Finlander]

I chuckled at the first paragraph, where the Twins have "potentially very little money to spend", while the Mets are "owned by a fellow with a lot of money", given that the Twins owner is something like the 5th richest owner in MLB.

Getting to the trade question, I don't think Alonso would be a bad target if Mets would toss in a lottery ticket (a low minors arm or catcher depth maybe?), but I'd rather see our better prospect capital spent on good pitching. I'm also curious if we could use our OF and MI talent to somehow make an offer for an Andrew Vaughn instead.

[DFlow]

Alonso is a fun player and one who fits the Twins……just not on a one year deal for Rodriguez. A top 50 prospect can net a frontline starter (as evidenced by your Scherzer and Verlander points) which is more sorely needed for this roster. 
 

If you could net Alonso for Kiriloff or another upside prospect I’d be interested but right now I think we need to focus on shoring up the playoff quality pitching with our limited funds and prospect capital.

[TwinsDr2021]

I would do the trade if we get a QO, I love me some EROD but I have to admit last year did sour me a tiny bit on him. I do still think he has a chance to be something special but we are talking about a guy that has missed only 22 games in the last 5 years. (half or maybe more of the Twins missed that many just last year).

He is a lifetime .251 hitter and has hit 53, 16 (in 57 games), 37, 40 and 46 homers. IMO if you have a chance for a guy like this take it and hope you can sign him, and if not take the draft choice.

(now I would prefer that if we are going to trade EROD, it was for some top shelf pitching.)

[Mike Sixel]

Why are we talking about dealing for guys with one year of control? No

[Daniel Blegen]

I keep seeing that the Twins need "professional at bats." Baseball has a huge random component. If you disagree, check out this year's post-season stats for "professional hitters" and former MVPs Betts and Freeman for LA or Acuna or Olson for ATL.

[2wins87]

It's a no from me dawg.

If they are looking for a RH slugging first baseman, they could sign Rhys Hoskins for around $17 million.  This would probably require moving Polanco and/or others in a separate trade, but it is definitely doable within their payroll constraints, and they wouldn't give up anyone.

In the choice between Alonso @ $7-10 million (Arb salary minus the proposed cash from the Mets) + losing Rodriguez or Hoskins @ $15-18 million (various contract projections) + keeping Rodriguez, I'll take the latter. I don't think Hoskins is too big of a step down from Alonso and I just don't think Alonso is worth Rodriguez.  Also just not a fan of trades that require cash as the equalizer, I'd rather get the value on the field.

I do like the idea of adding a big bat.  Before we learned of the budget constraints, I was contemplating Juan Soto trades and would have been ok moving Rodriguez for Soto.  I don't think Alonso quite meets that bar.

[Fatbat]

Hard no. I want to see Erod and all our youngsters beat the Mets in the World Series in 2027. 

[chpettit19]

How much is Alonso going to cost to re-sign? Could you take Polanco and Kepler's money and turn it into 6 years of Alonso? If yes, then I'd do this trade.

I agree with the idea that frontline pitching should be the Twins #1 priority this offseason, but I'd do this trade if it is available and they can extend Alonso for between 20 and 25 per year for 6 years. For reference Matt Olsen just signed for 22 a year, Goldschmidt got 26, and Freeman is at 27.

I think his .205 BABIP in 2023 was an outlier and he gets back to being a .260-.270 hitter with 40 homeruns a year. Which is exactly what the Twins need to plug into their 3 or 4 hole for the next 6 years.

[DocBauer]

Alonso is a great ballplayer, no question. And I'd love him, the lineup could use him, and the Twins would love to have a player of his ability.

I am NOT saying anyone on the Twins will be as good as him, but, there are some guys like Lewis and Kirilloff that have a chance to be regular, heart of the order type of hitters with 22-35HR power to go along with solid AVG and OB ability. (Wallner to a degree as well maybe??) And they are all younger and more cost controlled. I'm not 100% on Rodriguez just yet as there are some contact concerns, despite high OB ability and general youth and potential. But he is exciting. And I would have to move him in a deal for a top of rotation arm with some control,  not 1yr of a top bat. 

Alonso for 3yrs? I'd make E-Rod as part of a package. But no to any sort of 1yr proposal. I'm adding pitching and keep working with and developing my young bats.