Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting

[Adam Friedman]

Fans are rightfully disappointed after the Twins announced they will reduce payroll in 2024. 

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Late on Tuesday night, Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune and Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported that the Twins will lower their payroll from around $155 million in 2023 to $125 million - $140 million in 2024. Twins fans could expect this as the team hinted this was coming due to the lost revenue from their television deal with Bally Sports ending. Hoping didn't make it any less frustrating. The vibes around the team were the best they had been in years, but now fans are rightfully angry. 

This Team Deserves Investment
When the Twins ended the longest playoff losing streak in North American Sports history, Target Field erupted, and fans everywhere were jubilant. After years of playoff frustration, this team finally showed something when the lights were bright and lifted a humongous monkey off the entire fanbase's back. They were the talk of the Minnesota media market, for once.

While fans were disappointed after the Game 4 exit against Houston, fans and media believed they could build on that short run in the coming years to go even further. If they add a couple of impact players to their terrific core, the sky should be the limit for this team. But it now seems unlikely they will make the necessary additions to elevate the team from good to great. 

Harsh Roster Ramifications
The consequences of slashing payroll during a "winning window" are severe. To make regular season success as likely as possible, depth is critical. We saw that in 2023 when Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano, and Kyle Farmer stepped up as leaders off the field and essential contributors on the field. With a slashed payroll, veteran depth becomes a luxury that the Twins can't afford. Without that veteran depth, if things get nasty on the injury front, things will likely spiral like in 2022.

The top of the roster will suffer, too. If ownership just held payroll to what it was in 2023, the Twins would have the flexibility to add at least one more marquee talent. Under these conditions, they will likely lose a key player like Jorge Polanco. If they want to add impact talent, it'll have to be via trade, costing them prospects critical to maintaining a cheap yet successful team. Whichever route they opt for, choosing to reduce your total available assets is detrimental to any team. 

Penny Pinching Billionaires
The Twins cite diminished television revenue as the reason for cutting the payroll. While this is a reasonable explanation, there are also reasons they shouldn't do this from a business perspective. Making a playoff run brings in extra revenue with a sold-out ballpark and more expensive tickets. Further, enthusiasm leads to a more extensive season ticket base, a key revenue driver. By retreating from this team financially, enthusiasm will go down, and so will ticket sales- not just in 2024 but for multiple years. 

The Twins point out that they pushed payroll to franchise-record highs in recent years. But nobody should thank the Pohlads for spending in line with their market size for the last few years. They underinvested during the Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau era and retreated from spending during a long and hard rebuild in the following years. The criticism they receive for not spending has been merited for most of their time owning this team and is merited now.

The Pohlads are the second-richest family in Minnesota. The Twins aren't their primary source of income. No Pohlad, present or future, would be impacted if they chose to go into the red to invest in this team, and we won't even know if they go into the red because their books aren't public. This family is wealthy beyond our imagination and owns a constantly appreciating asset that happens to be our favorite baseball team. If they want us to believe them that they are good stewards of this multi-billion dollar "community asset," they should show some respect for the community and try to win a World Series- instead of sucking any bit of profit out of the organization that they can.

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[Parfigliano]

They must really be positive they are going to be taking a huge hair cut (like half)on a new TV deal.

[Brandon]

It could be worse we cou Be facing a San Diego size 50 million from payroll cut.   And they probably need to do more.  Or they will probably need to cut more in the future.  I’m curious to see how many other teams cut payroll over this.  At least the Pohlads are transparent with what is going on.  I do think the cut will be closer to 135-140 million than the 125 low point.  Saying 125 makes them look like less of a bad guy when they hit the higher range.  We actually have plenty of depth just not the CF per se.  but we have Gordon, Vazquez, Farmer (for now) and Castro. We will also have platoons where the players are looking for time at other positions.  Polanco/ Julien and Killeroff and likely Miranda if healthy and producing.  And we have minor leaguers ready to step in.  Martin and Severino to name a few.  Like I said signing a back up CF and getting a top of the rotation starting pitcher and maybe dumpster diving for a reliever to compete in spring training is all we need.  Other than wanting to resign Gray.  Limiting us to a reclamation project or trade is our only options for the rotation otherwise. Let’s see how the offseason plays out before we get all 😡 mad. 

[Blyleven2011]

The Pohlads are the second-richest family in Minnesota. The Twins aren't their primary source of income. No Pohlad, present or future, would be impacted if they chose to go into the red to invest in this team, and we won't even know if they go into the red because their books aren't public. This family is wealthy beyond our imagination and owns a constantly appreciating asset that happens to be our favorite baseball team. If they want us to believe them that they are good stewards of this multi-billion dollar "community asset," they should show some respect for the community and try to win a World Series- instead of sucking any bit of profit out of the organization that they can ....

It's not the right time  to reduce  payroll with the window open 3/4 of the way towards a world series ...

It's a business for the Pohlads  , not a love interest  , I agree they should spend  on the team  ...

When in business  you can't make money all of the time but you better make money most of the time .... 

brings us a world series Pohlads  , spend some of your inherited money  carl and Eloise left you ...

[Dman]

Baseball is a business and will always be run like a business.  The owners aren't in business to lose money.  

Last year I thought there would be a lot of pressure to trade Kepler because I never saw the Twins keeping Payroll at 156M.  It always felt like 140M was the break even point to me.  Granted I have no idea what the numbers are, but that seemed like a number that would be tough to pass IMO. I give them credit for stretching to 156M, but with the TV deal collapsing and the thinking being that they can maybe recoup half that it makes sense for them to bring it down at least 20M if not slightly more if 156M was the break even point.

I do agree with the OP though in that we (the fans) suffered through a long rebuild and were fine with the team not spending big money in free agency because there were so many holes to fill that one or two players just wasn't going to be enough to make a difference.  I said at that time it was fine for them to pull back on spending if they would spend heavy when the team was in contention.  Well this team is right there with a lot of playoff teams so it would be nice that even if they have to take a loss financially they give back to the fans that follow this team through thick and thin when they finally have a good team.

I get that spending money guarantee's nothing just look at what happened to the Padres last year, but it sure can help solidify a team.  This team is close and now is not the time to shrink back investing in it IMO.

 

[glunn]

Why can't the Twins create their own network along the lines of the Yankee's YES network?  Cut out the middlemen and the ad revenues might exceed what they were getting last year.

This would require a lot of work and business expertise, but it seems worth exploring.

 

[Brandon]

4 minutes ago, glunn said:

Why can't the Twins create their own network along the lines of the Yankee's YES network?  Cut out the middlemen and the ad revenues might exceed what they were getting last year.

This would require a lot of work and business expertise, but it seems worth exploring.

 

The last time they tried this the Pohlads were called greedy because people would have to pay for the channel.  They can’t catch a break from the fans.  

[Galen]

I know it's to late...and they seem to go year to year...but the $11,000,000 spent on Gallo last year makes it hurt even more.

[Whitey333]

People keep saying we have many major league prospects ready to play for the Twins.  That may be true.  I hope so.  But let's be honest here these prospects haven proven anything yet.  Let's not anoint our prospects with superstar expectations.  I do hope some of them turn out well.  This tv situation has been known as a possibility for the past year or two.  Shows poor planning to me.  When cable companies and many streaming services started dropping Bally Sports many of us have been unable to watch the games in our homes.  They said almost three years ago they would fix that.  They never did.  I don't have much faith in the ownership as they appear to be more concerned about their bottom line than the product they maintain on the field.  So if payroll is down to say 130 million.  That means that two players, Correa and Buxton who make a combined 50 million per year will be eating up around 40% of payroll.  Another great example of poor planning.  It's hard to have confidence with this ownership.

[LewFordLives]

Kinda makes you wonder why the Pohlad's ok'd the Correa contract. The problems at the RSNs were not a secret last off-season. They had to know there was at least the possibility that payroll would have to come down.

[dxpavelka]

Easy to spend somebody else's money.

[glunn]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

The last time they tried this the Pohlads were called greedy because people would have to pay for the channel.  They can’t catch a break from the fans.  

This is from the Wikipedia page for YES--

"In March 2023, YES launched a direct-to-consumer streaming service that included access to a 24/7 feed of YES Network and all New York Yankees, Brooklyn Nets and New York Liberty games appearing on YES. The service is only available in areas where YES is also featured on local cable. The service costs $24.99 per month or $239.99 a year, but was initially offered for an introductory price of $19.99 a month or $199.99 a year.^[26]"

That seems pricey to me, but it includes two other sports.  I wonder how much they make on advertising.

 

 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Easy to spend somebody else's money.

It seems like every year there is the same conversation about spending.  

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, old nurse said:

It seems like every year there is the same conversation about spending.  

With the opinion that players should make generational wealth in a decade and go wherever they can maximize that wealth but owners should not care about making money.  Personally, if the Pohlads were willing to dig into their own pockets, I would hope they would opt to spend $20M on homeless shelters or battered women shelters or any other worthy cause rather than produce 2 more wins for our team through spending in free agency.  That would be a much better use of their money.

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

With the opinion that players should make generational wealth in a decade and go where wherever they can maximize that wealth but owners should not care about making money.  Personally, if the Pohlads were willing to dig into their own pockets, I would hope they would opt to spend $20M on homeless shelters or battered women or any other worthy cause shelters than produce 2 more wins for our team through spending in free agency.  That would be a much better use of their money.

The notification for this wiped out what I was typing..

[PatPfund]

This article seems a bit over the top for this early in the off-season. The veteran help cited in the OP (Farmer, Solano, Taylor) combined to make about what Gallo did all on his own, so there is plenty of room to add veteran depth even in the reduced budget. And plenty of time to do so before Spring Training.

[Eris]

8 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

That means that two players, Correa and Buxton who make a combined 50 million per year will be eating up around 40% of payroll.  Another great example of poor planning.  It's hard to have confidence with this ownership.

In an article about ownership penny-pinching, one could conclude that many of the $$ spent last season did not contribute to the team’s on field performance. Add in the $10+ million on both Gallo and Vasquez and it is easy to see why ownership might be asking the FO “what did I get for my money last year. “

[old nurse]

“Investing” did not help the Yankees, Padres, Mets nor Boston.  There is no “investment” that pays off consistently.  Strings of World Series championships are non existent. The what about consistently making the playoffs can be answered with asking people to remember all the complaints of the streak. 

The team invested in Mauer and Morneau,, the pages here would seem to indicate it really didn’t get them anywhere. The team invested in Polanco, Kepler, and Buxton. If the team magically got a dollar for every trade Kepler or Polanco comment here the team would not need a television contract. The fans are fickle. In a sport where failing 2/3 of the time while attempting to hit the ball is considered exceptional the fans have no tolerance for being just merely average at what you do.  Gallo in this past season, hisOPS +, WRC+ were both as league average, Gallo will forever be vilified as a horrible signing because of bad hitting.  

So why doesn't the Pohlads “invest” in the team?  They are investors. Give them credit for at least understanding investing. They invest when there is a chance for a return. They invested in a number of players over the last few years.  Being in first place most of the season did not bring up attendance to the final years in the metrodome. There was a chance, the fans spoke

[old nurse]

18 minutes ago, Eris said:

In an article about ownership penny-pinching, one could conclude that many of the $$ spent last season did not contribute to the team’s on field performance. Add in the $10+ million on both Gallo and Vasquez and it is easy to see why ownership might be asking the FO “what did I get for my money last year. “

The return on the money spent is always going to be the fan spending on the team.. It is an aggregate of the team, not the individual player 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

“Investing” did not help the Yankees, Padres, Mets nor Boston.  There is no “investment” that pays off consistently.  Strings of World Series championships are non existent. The what about consistently making the playoffs can be answered with asking people to remember all the complaints of the streak. 

The team invested in Mauer and Morneau,, the pages here would seem to indicate it really didn’t get them anywhere. The team invested in Polanco, Kepler, and Buxton. If the team magically got a dollar for every trade Kepler or Polanco comment here the team would not need a television contract. The fans are fickle. In a sport where failing 2/3 of the time while attempting to hit the ball is considered exceptional the fans have no tolerance for being just merely average at what you do.  Gallo in this past season, hisOPS +, WRC+ were both as league average, Gallo will forever be vilified as a horrible signing because of bad hitting.  

So why doesn't the Pohlads “invest” in the team?  They are investors. Give them credit for at least understanding investing. They invest when there is a chance for a return. They invested in a number of players over the last few years.  Being in first place most of the season did not bring up attendance to the final years in the metrodome. There was a chance, the fans spoke

This makes perfect sense.  However, the general gist of what people are asking for is that they ignore any common sense or business intelligence.  Basically, we want them to place no value on money because they have a lot of it.  

My wish is not that they ignore any financial prudence but that they find avenues to generate more money by expanding the availability of TV coverage because I find now wisdom in hoping / insisting a business continue to spend while revenues go down.  I am hoping they are willing to spend as much as they are reasonably able.

[Parfigliano]

12 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The Pohlads are the second-richest family in Minnesota. The Twins aren't their primary source of income. No Pohlad, present or future, would be impacted if they chose to go into the red to invest in this team, and we won't even know if they go into the red because their books aren't public. This family is wealthy beyond our imagination and owns a constantly appreciating asset that happens to be our favorite baseball team. If they want us to believe them that they are good stewards of this multi-billion dollar "community asset," they should show some respect for the community and try to win a World Series- instead of sucking any bit of profit out of the organization that they can ....

It's not the right time  to reduce  payroll with the window open 3/4 of the way towards a world series ...

It's a business for the Pohlads  , not a love interest  , I agree they should spend  on the team  ...

When in business  you can't make money all of the time but you better make money most of the time .... 

brings us a world series Pohlads  , spend some of your inherited money  carl and Eloise left you ...

Entities that get public funding like say for the facility where their team plays should have to make their books public down to the  complete tax returns they file.  

[Parfigliano]

Pity Steve Cohen didnt buy the Twins.

[roger]

56 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Pity Steve Cohen didnt buy the Twins.

Got the biggest smile of the day out of this comment, thanks.

Didn't like Cohen when he was in Washington, hated him when he opened his checkbook after buying the Mets (and yes, my 6-year old granddaughter says that I shouldn't use that word).  Checked the standings several times a week to see how the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Padres were doing.  Always felt good after seeing the results.

[roger]

Can't believe we are only a few days past the World Series and here comes an article about the Pohlads being cheap.

I got the feeling they weren't prepared to spend $156M last year, but did so when Correa became available.  We will never know, but wouldn't surprise me if they lost money last year.  It is likely they lost a lot of money back in 2020 and probably didn't do all that great in 2021.  For that reason, I was shocked when they spent what they did in 2023.

This team is in great shape today.  They don't need to add anyone to be a very exciting team.  Yes, there are a few spots where adding some depth would improve their chances of going deeper into the playoffs.  

What the Twins need most of next year is better health from a few key players.  Will Buxton be able to play, say 100 games, in center field?  Will AK be ready from opening day and not dealing with some injury most of the year?  Will Miranda be healthy and the player he was in 2022?  Will Royce Lewis be healthy and play in 130-140 games?  Will Paddack pitch like he did the last week of the season and put up 140+ innings?  If so, he is your #2 starter?  

I don't know what moves the Twins will make this winter, but they sure have an abundance of talent in the infield.  Seems to me someone has to go.  They should be able to get something back for that talent.  A wise trade, or two, together with positive answers to MOST of my questions above will make the Twins a fantastic team to follow in 2024.  I don't see the need for another article blasting management and ownership, but that's just my opinion. 

My bigger question is whether or not we will be able to see them play on my home television?

[Nine of twelve]

13 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Pohlads  , spend some of your inherited money  carl and Eloise left you ...

It sure is easy to tell other people to spend their money for your benefit, isn't it?

[Parfigliano]

28 minutes ago, roger said:

Got the biggest smile of the day out of this comment, thanks.

Didn't like Cohen when he was in Washington, hated him when he opened his checkbook after buying the Mets (and yes, my 6-year old granddaughter says that I shouldn't use that word).  Checked the standings several times a week to see how the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Padres were doing.  Always felt good after seeing the results.

Im a Mets fan 2nd Twins always first.  All that money bought Cohen a tire fire in a dumpster.

[Nine of twelve]

Keep in mind that reduced TV revenue affects not just the Twins but almost every MLB team, at least to some extent. It seems likely to me that most teams will have more constraints on their 2024 budgets compared to the last few years. I expect free agent contracts to be smaller this offseason than originally projected and there will probably be internal cost-cutting measures instituted, such as fewer scouts and the like. I believe that this would be referred to as a correction in stock market parlance. So the Twins will probably wind up with a payroll ranked in about the same position relative to other teams.

[Karbo]

Take away Gallo and Grays and Maedas salaries and even with an increase in some of the other salaries they shouldn't need to cut much if any more. This is a mid market team that must depend on the development of their own players and trades to stay competitive. Seems like the past couple years maybe we goy a little spoiled with their spending. Even without adding any FA they should still take the Central IMHO.

 

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

So if payroll is down to say 130 million.  That means that two players, Correa and Buxton who make a combined 50 million per year will be eating up around 40% of payroll.  Another great example of poor planning.  It's hard to have confidence with this ownership.

I also don't understand why they gave Buxton a big contract if they knew they never wanted to spend at the level of their market size. They decided to change the whole spending strategy overnight. This usually happens with a change in management.

Someone mentioned the announcement as throwing "cold water" on the season ticket sales. The Twins are a mid-market team that gets special treatment as a revenue sharing recipient by MLB. They get extra draft picks and favorable compensation when signing and losing free agents. If the Twins start bringing in more revenue than the Cardinals, White Sox or Nationals they will lose this advantage. I'm not sure they want to maximize their revenue. I think they'd rather make sure they make at least $1 below the revenue sharing threshold. Tanking their local TV contract is a good way to keep that advantage. Announcing that they're cutting spending before any tickets are sold is another.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I would hope they would opt to spend $20M on homeless shelters or battered women shelters or any other worthy cause rather than produce 2 more wins for our team through spending in free agency.  That would be a much better use of their money.

I'm certainly up for spending less of my own money on the Twins and more on local charities. I would encourage others to divert their sports entertainment dollars to other more worthy pursuits.