Ranking the Untouchable Players in Potential Twins Trades

[Otaknam]

4 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

No one is "untouchable" if the right deal comes along and it can help the club. If the Twins want to add a starter via trade, they are going to have to offer up premium talent, including, possibly, a name off this list.

Nope! There are untouchable players unless the team is a disaster, which the Twins aren’t. Lee, Jenkins, Lewis, and Lopez are clearly untouchable, given their youth and relatively low cost. You win with high upside players and these guys fit that description.

[Eris]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

I don't think the Twins are above average in any of their outfield positions unless Buxton miraculously becomes healthy.  Our depth is infield based.

Kepler, Castro and Wallner had WRC+ above league average. Larnach was close to average with a WRC+ = 99. This is without Buxton. Granted, the defense is not elite. Data is from Fangraphs. 
 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=8

 

By team OF, the Twins were slightly above average, 11th or 12th depending on which metrics are used.  The OF position most in need of upgrading from 2023 is CF. Because of uncertainty surrounding Buxton, this also the most difficult to manage. There is also uncertainty with regards to Kepler and Wallner maintaining this past year’s production. 
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

 

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Nope! There are untouchable players unless the team is a disaster, which the Twins aren’t. Lee, Jenkins, Lewis, and Lopez are clearly untouchable, given their youth and relatively low cost. You win with high upside players and these guys fit that description.

If you want absolute top line pitching, Lewis and Jenkins are what it takes.

Lee, meh.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I would not trade Royce Lewis. He has those intangibles that you can't teach or quantify - personality, energy, excitement. Just look at the Twins offense in 2023 without Lewis and with him. He is a great teammate and leader.

It all depends on the deal. Arizona is looking for a 3B. If they called and offered Corbin Carroll and Drey Jameson for Royce Lewis would you say no?

[sweetmusicviola16]

Emanuel Rodriguez over Joe Ryan, and it's not even close, and I like Joe Ryan a lot. Ryan is a very good backend SP. But Rodriguez with what he can bring to the table? Speed, power and CF wrapped up into one package. Please don't trade Rodriguez. 

[FlyingFinn]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It all depends on the deal. Arizona is looking for a 3B. If they called and offered Corbin Carroll and Drey Jameson for Royce Lewis would you say no?

We can make up fantasy trades that will never happen like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo for Lewis. I predict Corbin Carroll isn't getting traded either. These trades aren't going to happen.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

We can make up fantasy trades that will never happen like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo for Lewis. I predict Corbin Carroll isn't getting traded either. These trades aren't going to happen.

McGriff and Fernandez for Alomar and Carter happened. It happens rarely, but not never. Heck, Arraez for Lopez happened just last year.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Logan Gilbert or George Kirby  for Lewis.

I'm not too sure these kind of trades happen because of fear on both sides. Usually, the position player should be more valuable even if the pitcher may be in demand short term. The risks with pitchers is higher on most occasions. I'm not looking for the Twins to trade Lewis and you specifically said that there is no way any of these guys are traded, but my question would be .   Is LG or GK for RL a fair trade?

[bowserthedog]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

If buxton has an even average year and plays CF in over 100 games, no one will be screaming to trade him. We will be opining about how the injury bug is finally behind him and his $15M salary is in line with his production. Also that he is now the anchor to a very young outfield that wont have Kepler in ‘25.  
A quick look at the 40 man and you can easily see that we are a young, talented team (ranked 6th in MLB). There is no way the FO is going to trade away players that are cheap, controllable and no where near their ceiling of development. The FO has never made a huge FA pitcher signing, if they somehow figure out revenues this offseason or next, that may be the FO next big move. 

That's just the thing. The guy isn't going to be traded.  If he's healthy and producing we'd be crazy to trade him. If he's under performing and injured we couldn't move him. 

[RaoulDuke]

7 hours ago, miracleb said:

Hard to put Joe Ryan in this conversation.  He is a #4 starter on a championship team........

Ya if someone wants to value Ryan that high I could be real interested in trading him.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, bowserthedog said:

Im not convinced that no team would ever trade for him or never would. Other teams were lined up to offer him more money than the Twins when he was a pending free agent despite your suggestion that he never has. Im not saying that right in this moment he's tradable. Probably not due to his performace. But one season of being somewhat healthy and performing to his ability and we could move him.

I guess one can hope for an outlier from him……..other teams pay attention to an entire career though and a few months of him getting hot in ‘24 won’t override the past 10 years. …….If he plays well, we won’t want to trade him……,.I like the guy! Loved watching him play CF at the highest level but I seriously doubt there’s any chance he’s going to be physically “better than ever” this Spring.

Reality is, he played 140 games one year.

The other 8 years combined he’s averaged 66 games per season…..that’s pathetic. No offense to Byron but it’s not a good history!! He’s a great athlete but he’s fragile - it’s not a decision of his, just the way it is.

[bowserthedog]

6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I guess one can hope for an outlier from him……..other teams pay attention to an entire career though and a few months of him getting hot in ‘24 won’t override the past 10 years. …….If he plays well, we won’t want to trade him……,.I like the guy! Loved watching him play CF at the highest level but I seriously doubt there’s any chance he’s going to be physically “better than ever” this Spring.

Reality is, he played 140 games one year.

The other 8 years combined he’s averaged 66 games per season…..that’s pathetic. No offense to Byron but it’s not a good history!! He’s a great athlete but he’s fragile - it’s not a decision of his, just the way it is.

It was a mistake last year to try and play through it. They should have had the second surgery and tried to get him back for the second half of the season. He was simply not effective in that state.

[rv78]

If the Twins aren't able to trade Polanco, Julien becomes a significant factor in a trade. If Arraez was expendable last year with Polanco on the team, then Julien could be the guy this year. With Brooks Lee on the cusp of making the club in 2024 that's 3 players that have 2B covered. What happens if Miranda shows in spring training that he is back to being healthy and is knocking the cover off the ball. They could give Miranda his 3B spot back and Lewis could play 2B also. It's the deepest position that the Twins have. No way they will keep all of those players. 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Wow. 

That would sure be amazing to see Royce Lewis become a player like those two. It would immediately vault him as the third greatest player in franchise history behind Walter Johnson and Harmon Killebrew.

That would be fun.

I might slide Carew & Oliva in there as franchise competition but he’s at a vibe I haven’t had since Morneau was healthy!

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, bowserthedog said:

It was a mistake last year to try and play through it. They should have had the second surgery and tried to get him back for the second half of the season. He was simply not effective in that state.

Last year was rough to watch - one feels for the guy……,but if you drop his first year breaking in at age 21, and the shortened Covid year of ‘20, & include his 140 game season ……..it’s 7 years of averaging 83 games per year. Last year or the last two years haven’t been the problem - it’s his entire career. His injuries are routine and doubtful they can be solved.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The only real untouchables in the Twins organization are Buxton, Correa, Lopez, and possibly Ryan.

The list of guys that would be moved if them Twins were blown away or acquiring an elite level player includes Lewis, Duran, and Julien.  I do not believe they would be traded but they could be moved in the right deal.

Any minor leaguer (including Jenkins and Lee) could be moved.  Minor leaguers are a high risk acquisition, look at the number of trades that give a top player for elite prospects and see how many of the prospects truly work out.   The failures dramatically outweigh the successes.

Personally I think if the Twins are going to make another Lopez-like trade for another pitcher, Lee and Larnach will be at the top of the list to be moved.  Lee is stuck in a tough spot being behind Correa and Lewis, it is easy to see the Twins look to move him for a position of need.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, bowserthedog said:

It was a mistake last year to try and play through it. They should have had the second surgery and tried to get him back for the second half of the season. He was simply not effective in that state.

Ok. Everyone repeat after me. Byron Buxton has a no trade clause. He is not going to be traded. He signed for less money so he could stay in Minnesota. He is not going to be traded. 

[TopGunn#22]

Well, if you're talking franchise icons you have to slip Kirby Puckett in there.  He's the guy that led the Twins to 2 World Series Championships.  Remember, Killebrew (Royals) and Carew (Angels) were both traded.  We never traded Kirby.

I also would include Emmanuel Rodriguez on this list.  I would posit that if Buxton played 100 games in CF next season and hit .250 with 30 HR's and a team was interested in trading something GOOD for him, I'd do it.  And I think the Twins would too.  With Rodriguez and Jenkins on the way (both will be up by 2025/2026) I'd move Buxton to rid myself of that contract.  But it could be worse.  The Brewers have at least 5 more years of Christian Yelich at $26 million per year.  And that's a big reason why Milwaukee is going to burn it all down and start over.  They took a gamble on Yelich, got 2 spectacular years out of him and nothing close since.  He's been decent, but not GREAT like he was.

The list is pretty much what I would envision.  I've mentioned moving Ryan previously because I see him as a #4 and no more.  If I can do a deal where I bring back a #1 (Corbin Burnes for Ryan) I'm doing it.  Burnes is ONE year older than Ryan.  If I'm the Twins, I will invest in a stud #1 like Burnes to build a winner.  With all the young talent up already, and soon to come up, and the only anchor weight contracts being Correa and Buxton that's what I'm hoping the strategy will be going forward.  

It's also why I question the wisdom of cutting salary for 2024.  The Twins are on the verge of a very promising window.  Why stifle the chance to push that window open wider over short term uncertainty of a TV deal.  

I love what Julien could bring to the top of our order for the sort and long term.  But let's say he has a full season in which he actually improves against LH pitching and has a solid year.  If Brooks Lee either breaks camp with the Twins or is up by May and HE has a solid rookie year with the bat and glove, unless the Twins teach Julien to be a 1B there is a possibility that he could be dealt for something VERY good. Even if Julien continues to struggle some with LH pitching but is solid, we would STILL get something very good for him.  If you've got an infield of Kirilloff, Lee, Correa and Lewis and Buxton or Miranda is clogging up your DH...where do you find a consistent place for Julien?

Nothing stays the same.  The Twins will be continuously grading, revising and reevaluating their talent.  The key is identifying who to keep and who you will chance trading.  I'm not trading Lewis or Jenkins for anything...at least for the next 2-3 years.    

[IndianaTwin]

57 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The only real untouchables in the Twins organization are Buxton, Correa, Lopez, and possibly Ryan.

The list of guys that would be moved if them Twins were blown away or acquiring an elite level player includes Lewis, Duran, and Julien.  I do not believe they would be traded but they could be moved in the right deal.

Any minor leaguer (including Jenkins and Lee) could be moved.  Minor leaguers are a high risk acquisition, look at the number of trades that give a top player for elite prospects and see how many of the prospects truly work out.   The failures dramatically outweigh the successes.

Personally I think if the Twins are going to make another Lopez-like trade for another pitcher, Lee and Larnach will be at the top of the list to be moved.  Lee is stuck in a tough spot being behind Correa and Lewis, it is easy to see the Twins look to move him for a position of need.

Thanks. I’d flip Ryan and Lewis in your groupings, but other than that, you saved me a lot of keystrokes, particularly with your last paragraph. 

[Fatbat]

@Fire Dan Gladden I disagree about Lee and the twins, they are in a great position because he may not be prime time until 2025. By then Farmer is gone, Polo is on an expiring contract if he is still here and C4 may need to slide out of SS. Miller wont be here until 26/27 so the FO is not going to purposely trade away their top IF prospect knowing that they will absolutely need to replace 2 existing starters by 4/26 

[old nurse]

Chase Petty says hello to all the good folks. By the time anyone figures out if the Twins last the trade it really will not matter anymore 

[Nine of twelve]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Well, if you're talking franchise icons you have to slip Kirby Puckett in there.  He's the guy that led the Twins to 2 World Series Championships.  Remember, Killebrew (Royals) and Carew (Angels) were both traded.  We never traded Kirby. 

Killebrew was not traded. He was released and the Royals signed him as a free agent.

[Nine of twelve]

7 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

We can make up fantasy trades that will never happen

This happens all the time on this website, which is why I rarely read trade-related threads.

[UK Twin]

IMO, the two that are currently untouchable are Lewis and Jenkins. 8 or 9 times out of 10 drafts, Jenkins is the number 1 pick. It was our extremely good fortune that we got the number 5 pick in the first place and that the 2023 draft had 5 ridiculously talented prospects in it. He's got all the tools to be a superstar - no way do we trade him.

As for Lewis, he's shown he can hit at the big league level ever since he got called up back in 2022. It was only injuries that held him back until he got called up back in May/June time. He's now added more power to his swing and he's under team control for a long time yet.  

I think we would consider trading Lee for the right player (likely a SP with plenty of team control left). Polanco is under team control for 2 more seasons, Correa and Lewis have SS and 3B covered for 5 more seasons at least so Lee, I think, is a possible candidate to be traded. The fact he's almost ready for MLB will strongly appeal to other teams. I don't want to trade him, but if we could get a young, MLB ready SP to slot in our rotation behind Lopez (with the potential to be our number 1 starter) then I think we'd be foolish to not consider it.

[Major League Ready]

18 hours ago, DJL44 said:

McGriff and Fernandez for Alomar and Carter happened. It happens rarely, but not never. Heck, Arraez for Lopez happened just last year.

You know we are talking about something that is unlikely when you have to have to reference a trade that was made over 30 years ago as an example.

[Jeff K]

20 hours ago, Eris said:

Kepler, Castro and Wallner had WRC+ above league average. Larnach was close to average with a WRC+ = 99. This is without Buxton. Granted, the defense is not elite. Data is from Fangraphs. 
 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=8

 

By team OF, the Twins were slightly above average, 11th or 12th depending on which metrics are used.  The OF position most in need of upgrading from 2023 is CF. Because of uncertainty surrounding Buxton, this also the most difficult to manage. There is also uncertainty with regards to Kepler and Wallner maintaining this past year’s production. 
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

 

Thanks for the data.  I ought to have said, the Twins outfield is not exceptional and I think if the Twins want to go far, they need to upgrade at least one OF position.  Buxton is the only outfielder that could be exceptional and I doubt that any of us are placing bets there.

[rv78]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

Thanks for the data.  I ought to have said, the Twins outfield is not exceptional and I think if the Twins want to go far, they need to upgrade at least one OF position.  Buxton is the only outfielder that could be exceptional and I doubt that any of us are placing bets there.

Saying Buxton "could" be exceptional is a stretch. He has a career batting average of .239. Outside of his defense which may never be the same, ever again, he's been pretty much average and of course, is trending in the wrong direction.

[Eris]

3 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Thanks for the data.  I ought to have said, the Twins outfield is not exceptional and I think if the Twins want to go far, they need to upgrade at least one OF position.  Buxton is the only outfielder that could be exceptional and I doubt that any of us are placing bets there.

I agree with your assessment. The outfield is average to slightly above average. However, upgrading from this via a trade is not so easy. If you take Kepler as an example there are only about 10 outfielders who have both better offensive and defensive metrics than Max Kepler. (Data is from Fangraphs)  It may take a significant package to acquire someone better than Kepler on both sides of the ball. Our best hope for OF improvement is internally. If the criteria is improvement in either offense or defense, but not both, than that is much easier to achieve. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 hours ago, Fatbat said:

@Fire Dan Gladden I disagree about Lee and the twins, they are in a great position because he may not be prime time until 2025. By then Farmer is gone, Polo is on an expiring contract if he is still here and C4 may need to slide out of SS. Miller wont be here until 26/27 so the FO is not going to purposely trade away their top IF prospect knowing that they will absolutely need to replace 2 existing starters by 4/26 

The points you make are valid.  However, unless the Twins come out and say Correa or Lee is being moved to another position, Lee is the odd man out.

Teams prefer to trade form a position of depth...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

19 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Thanks. I’d flip Ryan and Lewis in your groupings, but other than that, you saved me a lot of keystrokes, particularly with your last paragraph. 

I put Ryan as nearly untouchable because he a cost-controlled 2/3 type SP.  Hard to imagine a scenario or player the Twins would package him for....