Ranking the Untouchable Players in Potential Twins Trades

[Cody Christie]

Every organization has players who are deemed untouchable when it comes to making trades. Here is a look at Minnesota’s assets that have little chance of being traded this winter.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Some organizations are not planning on contending during the 2024 season, which likely means they would be willing to trade away current value for future long-term pieces. Contending teams like the Twins must find the right balance between supplementing the current roster and adding future assets to open the team’s winning window. 

The Twins' current roster includes significant depth on the position player side, so that’s a strength from which the team will make moves. Minnesota’s lost TV revenue means the club plans to cut payroll by $15-30 million next season. Veteran players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer are likely on the trading block to clear some salary space. 

After examining Minnesota’s roster, two player types are untouchable in trades. Current young players with surplus value moving forward and veteran players with high contracts and trade restrictions. Baseball Trade Values attempts to quantify each player's surplus value in a potential trade, so it’s easy to see why these players are untradeable. 

1. Walker Jenkins, OF
Surplus Trade Value: 45.1
The Twins selected Jenkins with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he’s already established himself as one of baseball’s best prospects. Minnesota pushed him to Low-A, and he posted a .989 OPS in his professional debut. His surplus trade value isn’t the highest in the organization because he is far from the big-league level. The Twins aren’t trading Jenkins because he is on his way to becoming a superstar. 

2. Royce Lewis, SS/3B
Surplus Trade Value: 44.2
The Twins saw how valuable Lewis can be to the line-up in the second half of last season. He added muscle to his frame while rehabbing from two ACL tears, increasing his power production. He will get an entire off-season to acclimate to third base, his new defensive home. On a team with big names like Correa and Buxton, Lewis is quickly becoming the face of the franchise. 

3. Pablo Lopez, SP
Surplus Trade Value: 43.1
The Twins have yearned for an ace since trading away Johan Santana was. Lopez stepped into that role last season, and the front office quickly signed him to an extension. He had some ups and downs during his first season with the Twins, but he was fantastic in October. He will be at the top of the team’s rotation through 2027. The Twins continue to try to add to their rotation, so there is no reason to try and trade Lopez. 

4. Brooks Lee, SS/3B
Surplus Trade Value: 48.1 
Lee has the highest surplus trade value of any player in the Twins organization because he is on the cusp of the big leagues. He has a full six years of team control, with some of those years being at a minimal cost. Jenkins and Lee are ranked closely on many national prospect lists, but Lee has a lower floor, and Jenkins has a higher ceiling. The Twins were lucky to get both players in their respective drafts, and the hope is they are in the middle of the team’s line-up for the next decade.

5. Joe Ryan, SP
Surplus Trade Value: 39.1
Near last year’s trade deadline, I wrote that Ryan was the team’s most valuable trade asset. His performance struggled in the middle of the season as he dealt with a groin injury. However, there is hope that Ryan can have a healthy 2024 and reach his full potential. Some of his trade value has decreased because he is in his last pre-arbitration season. Still, the Twins want Ryan to take the next step and prove he can be a player they rely on in the playoffs.

How would you rank the players listed above? Would the Twins consider trading any of these players for the right starting pitcher? Leave a Comment and start the discussion. 

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[LewFordLives]

No one is "untouchable" if the right deal comes along and it can help the club. If the Twins want to add a starter via trade, they are going to have to offer up premium talent, including, possibly, a name off this list.

[Fatbat]

Trading is about improving the future teams.  I would imagine most teams would want a crack at these 5 players.  Unless the trade would be viewed as the twins getting a massive over pay in trading any of these guys away, get used to seeing them at Target Field.  Of course Jenkins won’t be there until 26/27 at the earliest. Ownership at some point is going to really have to spend $$$ on player salaries so they better figure out marketing this team to increase the revenue stream. I doubt a blockbuster trade happens this off season for 2 reasons. 

The roster only needs a couple replacements and/or upgrades.

Those can be accomplished by FA ($20M available) and internal promotion/growth replacement. 

With that being said, If another team is going to overpay for someone and it makes us better then we will see a trade(s).  

[mickster]

18 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

No one is "untouchable" if the right deal comes along and it can help the club. If the Twins want to add a starter via trade, they are going to have to offer up premium talent, including, possibly, a name off this list.

So true.   So many call to add a pitcher, and RH bat.   The reality is in order to get we must give, and that means talent that is up and coming.   Top end prospects may have to be used in order to get that,  

[weitz41]

I'd rank them in the same order as you did. If I had to choose one of them to get a young stud pitcher, Logan Gilbert or Jesus Lazardo types. Not Shane Bieber types. I'd say Brooks Lee is the likeliest to be traded and that's not very likely. 

[miracleb]

Hard to put Joe Ryan in this conversation.  He is a #4 starter on a championship team........

[rv78]

Unfortunately 2 of the players that need to be traded to really improve the offense on this team and free up salary can't be traded due to their no-trade clauses. The FO really botched those 2 deals. Now they have little to no wiggle room if they really need to cut salary which puts this team in a bind. I still see either Polanco or Kepler being traded. Maybe a 3 way trade can be done where they go to a contending team that really needs them, that team then sends a prospect or 2 to a 3rd team and that 3rd team sends us a pitcher that we need. That way all teams get what they need and it doesn't cost us any of our highly regarded prospects.

[saviking]

Surely there is a city or 2 Correa would agree getting traded to. We could offer to overnight him Juicy Lucie's free of charge .  

[D.C Twins]

Lee with higher floor, not lower floor... otherwise great article!

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don’t see any way that THIS team trades a major league starting pitcher. To that end, I wouldn’t even have López or Ryan on this list.

If we are picking next guy at that point it’s Julien right? 

[Blyleven2011]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t see any way that THIS team trades a major league starting pitcher. To that end, I wouldn’t even have López or Ryan on this list.

If we are picking next guy at that point it’s Julien right? 

I agree , you never have too much pitching ...

[Eris]

One of the challenges the Twins have is that they are above average at most positions and therefore it is hard to improve the team via trades (except possibly by adding a starting pitcher, and that also comes with risks). The players most discussed in moving (Polanco and Kepler) will not bring a decent MLB ready pitcher. Unless we get lucky as in the trade that brought Joe Ryan. 

[DJL44]

The reason you don't see players like this get traded is losing that trade can end the career of a GM. If they trade Jenkins they absolutely must win that trade or Falvey will lose his job. If they keep Jenkins and something happens to him where he doesn't fulfill his potential they won't blame Falvey.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Every player is always available for the right deal.  If Spencer Strider becomes available for Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis, I don't think we're walking away.  We would probably never shop any of these guys, but you never know.

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like your list but would replace Ryan with Julian.

[Nashvilletwin]

None of these five are getting traded.

Walker Jenkins = Roy Hobbs.  No one is trading away Roy Hobbs.

Royce Lewis = the Twins’ Derek Jeter (except Royce plays 3rd).  No one is trading away our Derek Jeter.

Pablo Lopez - no chance the FO trades the best trade (and sign) they ever made by a mile in their careers.

Brooks Lee - no chance we trade a solid decade of plus fielding and hitting from this sure fire (and cheap) prospect. Not quite the next Jeter, but could be awfully close. In ‘25 he will be better (i.e. outhit and outfield) than Correa and $32MM cheaper.

Joe Ryan - as mentioned in previous posts, this team, especially this year, does not trade away controllable quality, innings eating starting pitching.

Cory is correct - our most likely valuable trade asset (excluding Kepler and Polanco) is realistically Julien.

 

 

[FlyingFinn]

I would not trade Royce Lewis. He has those intangibles that you can't teach or quantify - personality, energy, excitement. Just look at the Twins offense in 2023 without Lewis and with him. He is a great teammate and leader.

[mikelink45]

Would any team dream of trading for Buxton?

Catcher is such a difficult position to fill I would have Jeffers on the list.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

One of the challenges the Twins have is that they are above average at most positions and therefore it is hard to improve the team via trades (except possibly by adding a starting pitcher, and that also comes with risks). The players most discussed in moving (Polanco and Kepler) will not bring a decent MLB ready pitcher. Unless we get lucky as in the trade that brought Joe Ryan. 

I don't think the Twins are above average in any of their outfield positions unless Buxton miraculously becomes healthy.  Our depth is infield based.

[jmlease1]

List seems about right. All of these players are pretty untouchable for the Twins absent a massive overpay in a deal. All of them are cheap with the exception of Lopez, and considering how hard it is to find an ace he's actually relatively underpaid. Part of the key for the Twins to stay competitive is to keep a flow of cost-controlled players flowing up from the minor leagues, so moving high-end prospects is only going to be done from a position of depth and strength, and to fill serious needs. For once, the Twins don't have any "oh god oh god, we can't possibly start the season like this!" needs, which makes it even less likely they'd look to move anyone off this list.

I understand people questioning Ryan's presence on the list, but he's a cost-controlled starting pitcher who has shown that he can slot in to your rotation and give you a chance to win pretty much every night. He doesn't look like an ace (he's got some warts, like giving up too many HRs) but he's definitely a playoff-caliber starter. I'd say he's the better fit on this list than Ober from a trade value standpoint just because he's shown the ability to throw more innings consistently. YMMV on whether he's the better pitcher, but in terms of automatic trade value, he's the right choice.

The only other guy who probably deserves some consideration for an untradable list is Emmanuel Rodriguez; the Twins see him as a high end prospect, and so does the rest of the league. It's hard to put him higher than anyone on this list (3 of these guys have shown/proven it in MLB already, Lee is already in AAA after doing the job in AA, and Jenkins had an amazing start and might have the highest upside of any Twins prospect since Joe Mauer) but he's probably next in line and I see little chance of the Twins moving him either, again, absent a massive overpay.

With the Twins in a competitive zone with a strong MLB squad, I think they're more likely to make deals involving guys like Polanco this year or someone like Julien in the next couple of years once they get more expensive and they have quality players coming in behind. The FO was more interested in spending prospect capital when they had bigger holes to fill, but even then: they were always looking to deal from positions of strength.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Unfortunately 2 of the players that need to be traded to really improve the offense on this team and free up salary can't be traded due to their no-trade clauses. The FO really botched those 2 deals. Now they have little to no wiggle room if they really need to cut salary which puts this team in a bind. I still see either Polanco or Kepler being traded. Maybe a 3 way trade can be done where they go to a contending team that really needs them, that team then sends a prospect or 2 to a 3rd team and that 3rd team sends us a pitcher that we need. That way all teams get what they need and it doesn't cost us any of our highly regarded prospects.

Not a bad thought on how to get something done - we probably send Rodriquez & Gordon & Festa to Milwaukee as well as Polanco & an A ball guy to a contender & they send Milwaukee a prospect……..we get Devin Williams for 2 years.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

One of the challenges the Twins have is that they are above average at most positions and therefore it is hard to improve the team via trades (except possibly by adding a starting pitcher, and that also comes with risks). The players most discussed in moving (Polanco and Kepler) will not bring a decent MLB ready pitcher. Unless we get lucky as in the trade that brought Joe Ryan. 

We can trade Polanco along with others on 40 man (Miranda - Larkin - Gordon - Headrick - Balazovic, etc.) as well as prospects outside our “no trade” list (Rodriquez - Festa, etc.)

I let Varland be in the mix for 5th starter………sign a $10-$14M free agent arm like Severino to add depth & high upside.

Trade is to Milwaukee for Devin Williams to push our Pen to elite for 2 years. The big guy in Pittsburgh could be a target as well although they probably don’t move a local & fan favorite.

[JD-TWINS]

33 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Would any team dream of trading for Buxton?

Catcher is such a difficult position to fill I would have Jeffers on the list.

NO team would ever trade for Buxton…….even if the Twins paid 70% of his salary…….he doesn’t play & never has. 1 normal year of availability in 9 seasons.

I too think Jeffers has more or at least “like value” to Ryan.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I would not trade Royce Lewis. He has those intangibles that you can't teach or quantify - personality, energy, excitement. Just look at the Twins offense in 2023 without Lewis and with him. He is a great teammate and leader.

To me, Jenkins is a great prospect, described as “Roy Hobbs” by one contributor. Am not going to debate his ceiling.

However, after year 1 in the SHOW, if we traded Royce Lewis it could be the worst trade in MLB history - up there with the Reds trading a “too old for his age” Frank Robinson or the Cubs trading a young Lou Brock.

Royce Lewis is on the fringe of Stardom in the League after only a few hundred AB’s! Can only be stopped by health issues.

[bowserthedog]

Im not worried about whether Polanco or Kepler can net us a starting pitcher. You can trade them for the best packages of prospects you can get and then trade prospects in a seperate trade for a starting pitcher that helps us.

[bowserthedog]

24 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

NO team would ever trade for Buxton…….even if the Twins paid 70% of his salary…….he doesn’t play & never has. 1 normal year of availability in 9 seasons.

I too think Jeffers has more or at least “like value” to Ryan.

Im not convinced that no team would ever trade for him or never would. Other teams were lined up to offer him more money than the Twins when he was a pending free agent despite your suggestion that he never has. Im not saying that right in this moment he's tradable. Probably not due to his performace. But one season of being somewhat healthy and performing to his ability and we could move him.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

None of these five are getting traded.

Walker Jenkins = Roy Hobbs.  No one is trading away Roy Hobbs.

Royce Lewis = the Twins’ Derek Jeter (except Royce plays 3rd).  No one is trading away our Derek Jeter.

Pablo Lopez - no chance the FO trades the best trade (and sign) they ever made by a mile in their careers.

Brooks Lee - no chance we trade a solid decade of plus fielding and hitting from this sure fire (and cheap) prospect. Not quite the next Jeter, but could be awfully close. In ‘25 he will be better (i.e. outhit and outfield) than Correa and $32MM cheaper.

Joe Ryan - as mentioned in previous posts, this team, especially this year, does not trade away controllable quality, innings eating starting pitching.

Cory is correct - our most likely valuable trade asset (excluding Kepler and Polanco) is realistically Julien.

 

 

This is a nice list of names. Only Ryan and Lopez have proven themselves beyond a year. Both pitchers look like guys to plug and play. 

I agree that the Twins are high on Jenkins, Lewis, and Lee. These guys are just getting their feet wet (Lewis) or yet to reach MLB. We can be really pumped to see them as Twins but the time will tell us of their value.

What is impossible to know is whether another team values these guys at a high level and makes an offer that is too good to turn down. We just can't know that now. It seemed crazy (to many) to trade a young controllable batting champ last offseason, but the Twins were not going to move forward without pitching. To me, the unknown is how Falvey and gaggle value the Twins players and what other teams see within the Twins system worth a phone call or text.

[Fatbat]

21 minutes ago, bowserthedog said:

Im not convinced that no team would ever trade for him or never would. Other teams were lined up to offer him more money than the Twins when he was a pending free agent despite your suggestion that he never has. Im not saying that right in this moment he's tradable. Probably not due to his performace. But one season of being somewhat healthy and performing to his ability and we could move him.

If buxton has an even average year and plays CF in over 100 games, no one will be screaming to trade him. We will be opining about how the injury bug is finally behind him and his $15M salary is in line with his production. Also that he is now the anchor to a very young outfield that wont have Kepler in ‘25.  
A quick look at the 40 man and you can easily see that we are a young, talented team (ranked 6th in MLB). There is no way the FO is going to trade away players that are cheap, controllable and no where near their ceiling of development. The FO has never made a huge FA pitcher signing, if they somehow figure out revenues this offseason or next, that may be the FO next big move. 

[Doctor Gast]

To keep to subject, I like to say i'd be very hard to trade any of these guys. 

My list is 

#1 Royce Lewis- To me he has never been an option to trade because like flying finn said there are too many intangibles to figure his true worth. We be at great loss if we trade him.

#2 Brook Lee- I agree with BTV & value Lee over Jenkins because of the production over longer time (we have more certainity of his future), I love Lee's tools especially his hitting & the fact of his balanced switch-hitting. Plus he plays a premium defense.

#3 is very hard for me to pick & I know most people will disagree w/ me but my

#3 is Pablo Lopez- I value front line SPs & Lopez is established & is well known. You know exactly where your baseline is at & it's fantastic.

#4 Walker Jenkins-  He has a high ceiling & most everyone else has him at #1 but he's young & has very little exposure. Until he gets a lot more experience I'd rank him here.

#5 Joe Ryan- I'd be very hesitant to trade Ryan because of his ability & determination to become a very viable front line SP. Again I value front-line SP

Everyone else has a price tag depending on our need & if the player is overated or underrated

[tony&rodney]

47 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

However, after year 1 in the SHOW, if we traded Royce Lewis it could be the worst trade in MLB history - up there with the Reds trading a “too old for his age” Frank Robinson or the Cubs trading a young Lou Brock.

Wow. 

That would sure be amazing to see Royce Lewis become a player like those two. It would immediately vault him as the third greatest player in franchise history behind Walter Johnson and Harmon Killebrew.

That would be fun.