The Curious Case of Kala'i Rosario

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins took a chance on the standout amateur out of Hawai’i with their final pick in the 2020 draft that was limited by the COVID-19 pandemic. Flash forward three seasons, and his outlook is polarizing to many evaluators. So where does Kala’i Rosario go from here?

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to get excited about a powerful showcase in the Arizona Fall League. Seeing intriguing prospects succeed against other top minor leaguers is bound to create some buzz. And if all goes well, that buzz propels the young player into their pivotal next season. 

That’s what Twins’ prospect Kala’i Rosario (Twins Daily’s No. 11 prospect) hopes for. 

While his brief 25-game stint in the AFL featured a reality check in the second half, he made a name for himself in his first couple weeks in the desert. Ultimately, he finished that campaign with an overall slash line of .214/.333/.483, clubbing seven home runs and three doubles along the way. 

That roller coaster ride has become the norm for the 21-year-old corner outfielder. He’s shown immense power from the right side of the plate, and his offensive production has been above-average in his three seasons in the Twins’ system. But as his career progresses to the upper levels of the minor leagues, questions remain about his approach at the plate and his future as a potential option at the game’s highest level. So what should we make of the Twins’ highly-polarizing prospect?

What To Like
Even with the question marks surrounding various aspects of his game, Rosario has shown the ability to succeed at each level he’s seen in the minor leagues. Even in the Florida State League, which usually suppresses raw power, he could drive the ball reasonably well, with 36 extra-base hits in 109 games. 

Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen acknowledged the flaws in his swing but lauded his ability to continue growing as his career progresses. 

“He has too much power to dismiss entirely, and he’s started to show an ability to make adjustments,” they said in their midseason prospect rankings in June. “So far in 2023, Rosario has narrowed his approach. He’s swinging and striking out less and walking more often.”

His first season with High-A Cedar Rapids showed some of this newfound patience. Rosario nearly doubled his walk rate from 2022, and while his strikeout rate is still higher than many are comfortable with, it did decrease by a few points to 29.6%. That growth in swing selection led to his breakout as a professional hitter, and he finished the season with a .832 OPS (133 wRC+). Rosario put on such a show for the Kernels that he earned the Midwest League MVP. 

He’s shown plus range in the corner outfield, with solid speed and a strong arm that led to 23 outfield assists over the last two seasons. While it’s not his calling card by any measure, evaluators think he should be passable enough to be an everyday right fielder.

What To Worry About
Like many hitters this front office has drafted since taking the helm, there’s a fair amount of swing and miss to Rosario’s game. 

While that alone isn’t enough to dismiss a player completely, evaluators are worried about his swing path and his ability to make adjustments as the quality of opposing pitchers continues to improve going forward. 

“His high-effort swing has zero precision and a flat, almost downward-cutting angle that generates lots of opposite field contact,” Longenhagen said in the abovementioned article. 

So, while the exit velocity on some of the mammoth shots he hits looks enticing, Rosario seems plagued by the same pitfalls as hitters like Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, and even his AFL teammate Aaron Sabato. And as it looks right now, he doesn’t have the secondary tools to elevate him to the next level if he can’t continue improving his approach. 

Rosario is still a ways off from any potential big-league playing time, but he finds himself in a crowded picture of options for the Twins’ outfield in the coming years. He’ll need to take another leap like the one he just took at High-A if he wants to break through as a genuine possibility anytime soon. He currently finds himself blocked by several team-controlled former prospects (Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, etc.). Chasing him are other higher-ceiling prospects, such as Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. 

So, while there isn’t some career-defining decision looming for Rosario, he will need to have another breakout in the upper levels of the minor leagues if he is going to establish himself as a building block-quality prospect.

What do you think? Do you anticipate Rosario taking another step in 2024? What do you like or dislike about his game? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. 

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[mikelink45]

I do not expect anything - I think he is a lost prospect who needs a really bad team to give him some ABs

 

[Minderbinder]

Sweet.  He's a sweet 21 long-shot with a positive attitude and a desire to improve.  Get back to us when Kala'i's got some sweet plate discipline figured out.  And Rosario's our #11 prospect?  Oh, my....

[DJL44]

40 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Sweet.  He's a sweet 21 long-shot with a positive attitude and a desire to improve.  Get back to us when Kala'i's got some sweet plate discipline figured out.  And Rosario's our #11 prospect?  Oh, my....

Yes, the Midwest League MVP is the #11 prospect in the system. He's 19th on the MLB.com list.

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

Like many hitters this front office has drafted since taking the helm, there’s a fair amount of swing and miss to Rosario’s game. 

It's a little disappointing that Rosario is our #11 top prospect but it's the result of this FO's priority in hitter preference & lack of priority of defense & athleticism.

[High heat]

We will see how Rosario fare at AA.  His stock might be at an all time high coming off a MVP season and a power packed fall league.  For a 1 tool power only prospect. 

[Parfigliano]

Having a swing likened to that of the three "o" ( Sano Gallo Sabato) is not a good place to be.

[Fatbat]

30 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Having a swing likened to that of the three "o" ( Sano Gallo Sabato) is not a good place to be.

RosariO …. Fits right in…

[olerud]

Trade bait

[Fatbat]

He seems like a great kid. He has a long way to go to be in the show. At 21 yrs old…. So does most of the guys in MILB.  Will he adjust his swing? Its going to be a nice show to watch over the next 3 years while he checks off more awards…. or not. 

[Murph101]

The kid won the league MVP and you're making it sound like he's Joey Gallo? 🙄

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's a little disappointing that Rosario is our #11 top prospect but it's the result of this FO's priority in hitter preference & lack of priority of defense & athleticism.

Noah says 👋.  He is the SS prospect who won the minor league gold glove this year.

[old nurse]

Patience at the plate I think would be difficult when one has had success with swing. If the swing is not an ideal swing it will probably take a lack of success to get him to change.  

[ashbury]

29 minutes ago, Murph101 said:

The kid won the league MVP and you're making it sound like he's Joey Gallo? 🙄

I bet Joey Gallo could sign a contract with a team in the Midwest League and compete for MVP.

[Dman]

If you can't get excited about a 21 year old hitter winning MVP of his league you might as well stop following prospects because they can't play any better than that.  How many Twins prospects have won MVP honors?  He was better at a younger age than Daulten Rushing the Dodgers number 1 prospect.  

Sure the kid can improve on his plate discipline, but his approach was good enough as is, to win MVP honors ahead of the Dodgers number 1 prospect.  If you ask me 11 is too low for this kid.  I don't know if anyone on here has watched him but he has a nice setup at the plate leaning on his back leg to uncoil and launch baseballs.

We'll know more once he hits AA as he will be challenged with more and better breaking stuff.  Still he is the only right handed outfield bat with power close to the majors I don't think the Twins will be interested in trading him.  If he meets the challenge at AA he could be a top 5 player in the Twins top 30 this time next year.

[DocBauer]

Rosario began the season with high A Cedar Rapids as a 20yo and didn't turn 21yo until July 2nd, roughly half way through the year. 

His quad slash line was as follows: .252/ .367/ .467/ .831

Yes, he strikes out more than you'd like, and he will need to curb that, or at least not see his K % rise. But a .367 OB% at A+ as a 20/21yo?  I'll take that all day long!

Oh, and a .831 SLG% which was 27 Dbls, 3 Trips, and 21 HR. He accounted for 94 RBI and won the league MVP honors. 

As a follow up, he went to the AFL and over 4 weeks cracked 7 HR and won the HR tournament. Oh, and despite the hits not falling in and batting only .214 he still maintained a .333 OB%.

He's got a ways to go, but I'm very excited about this kid. All he's showing is great potential! What kid his age and experience...generally speaking...doesn't have some things to keep working on?

 

[Jocko87]

It's going to be a good year watching baseball in Wichita. A few very interesting guys will be in town.

[Murph101]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I bet Joey Gallo could sign a contract with a team in the Midwest League and compete for MVP.

Are you joking? He would get cut from most High School teams.

[Jocko87]

13 minutes ago, Murph101 said:

Are you joking? He would get cut from most High School teams.

Joey Gallo would destroy the Midwest league. Like 1.400 Ops prime Barry Bonds destroy.  I'd bet his strikeout rate would be under 20%.

I do not think the league has seen the last of a scary Joey Gallo. It won't be with the Twins but I'd bet he has another 40 HR season in him.

So easy to hate but the margins are so thin at the big league level.

[tony&rodney]

Difficult to know where people are going in this discussion. I wondered how many folks have seen Rosario hit at least a couple of dozen times? I'm fine if this is via milb.com and live is better. If you haven't seen him play in dozens of games, .....

Rosario gets some criticism and he won the league MVP. Noah Miller, who I think could still develop, gets a minor league gold glove and people weigh in that he is the future shortstop for the Twins even if he is just a utility player at Hi-A baseball right now. Either way, I think it is too early to make these judgments. I want to encourage those fans interested in prospects to watch a half dozen minor league games every week to see what is happening down below on the farm. Some of the games are pretty crazy. Forget the stats and watch what these kids can do against their peers.

[PatPfund]

Tough room when you win a league MVP, and get dumped on all over the comments. @DocBauer is correct; it isn't a shock somebody in A ball has things to work on to get to MLB, it is the whole reason you have A (and AA and AAA) ball. My biggest chuckle from the OP was the list of MLB players "blocking" a very young prospect. Byron hasn't played OF in about 2 years, and Larnach needs to make his own improvements, or he might not be playing baseball in a few years when Kala'i could be expected to arrive. 

And it's just foolish to look at the current MLB roster when discussing an A level prospect; you simply try to develop as many as you can, and skill and/or trades will work through any 'blocks' you tried to predict 3 years ahead of time.

[ashbury]

13 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Tough room when you win a league MVP, and get dumped on all over the comments.

Concur.  When I try to project a prospect, his age matters a lot, until he stops improving.  At age 20 I think his chances look very good considering three solid seasons in the pros by now.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I've seen the kid play in person and I wouldn't bet against him.

[saviking]

15 hours ago, Dman said:

If you can't get excited about a 21 year old hitter winning MVP of his league you might as well stop following prospects because they can't play any better than that.  How many Twins prospects have won MVP honors?  He was better at a younger age than Daulten Rushing the Dodgers number 1 prospect.  

Sure the kid can improve on his plate discipline, but his approach was good enough as is, to win MVP honors ahead of the Dodgers number 1 prospect.  If you ask me 11 is too low for this kid.  I don't know if anyone on here has watched him but he has a nice setup at the plate leaning on his back leg to uncoil and launch baseballs.

We'll know more once he hits AA as he will be challenged with more and better breaking stuff.  Still he is the only right handed outfield bat with power close to the majors I don't think the Twins will be interested in trading him.  If he meets the challenge at AA he could be a top 5 player in the Twins top 30 this time next year.

Not to mention above average speed as a. Orner outfielder and 24 assists in 2 years. I'm rooting for the kid ..

[jmlease1]

So, here's the thing: Sano & Gallo were both MLB players. Sano accumulated 7.6 bWAR, had a 116 OPS+, and made the all-star team. Gallo was a 2-time all-star, won 2 gold gloves, and has a career OPS+ of 110 even after the past 2 1/2 seasons where he struggled. Sabato is a former 1st round draft pick that is going to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft and doesn't look like he'll ever make it to the majors.

I realize there's a real dislike towards players that K a lot around here, and the Gallo experiment flamed out after the first month causing immense frustration as he became unplayable again (yet lingered on the roster and kept getting chances). And Sano's last season was a disaster as the injuries piled up and he couldn't adjust.

But early in their careers, Sano and Gallo added a lot of value to their teams. If Rosario is on a Gallo-ish path where he could supply quality defense (I wouldn't expect gold gloves) and light tower power and spends 5+ years in MLB with the Twins...that's a heck of a result for a 5th round pick.

But grouping Sabato in with Gallo & Sano is ridiculous. Sabato has never dominated in the minors like Gallo or Sano did. Point of fact, Sabato has never dominated for a full season at any level in professional baseball, only doing it for short bursts. He's never had a season as good as Rosario's 2023 as a pro, despite being an older and more experienced college bat.

Rosario had an excellent season in high A and deserves to have risen in his prospect status. He's going to be playing AA next season at 21, which is a great development path for a high school hitter. So far he hasn't needed to repeat a level, either.

[Mike h]

Sano, Gallo, Sabato. Big power, but all or nothing. I think Rooker was the same.  But I bring him up as an example of a late bloomer who ultimately found success. Until last year he couldn't do anything at ML level. But then, in his age 28 season, he hit .246 with 30 HR. Unfortunately, it was with Oakland. (OK, I know his numbers were Jacked up by a crazy hot early start, and he swooned mid season, but the final stats are still good.)  But also, he led his team in strikeouts. So what. That happens with power hitters.

So now we are trying to project whether a 20 year old prospect with power and strikeouts will develop into a Killebrew or a Sano (or a Rooker.) It's way, way too early to know. The road ahead is very long with many unforeseeable bends and forks. But the question being asked now is what do they do with him? It's a fact of baseball life that teams will sometimes quit on a player who goes on to prove their worth with another team. (Ortiz, Hendricks.) I see way too much potential, as do some others as he was named MVP of his league, to give up on him. Maybe it will take 8 more years, like it did for Rooker, but he has a chance.  Keep him.

[FlyingFinn]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I want to encourage those fans interested in prospects to watch a half dozen minor league games every week to see what is happening down below on the farm.

Most of us who are working just don't have the time to do that. We rely on people on TD and the stats. I especially like when posters like yourself report what they actually see in person at games or on tv. Most of those reports have been glowing on Rosario's power and Miller's glove. Both need to develop other tools. Not sure why we have to bash either one of them (though I did say I was disappointed in Rosario when he was hitting .060 after two weeks in the AFL - did pretty darn good after that to get his average up to .214 by the end).

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

So, here's the thing: Sano & Gallo were both MLB players. Sano accumulated 7.6 bWAR, had a 116 OPS+, and made the all-star team. Gallo was a 2-time all-star, won 2 gold gloves, and has a career OPS+ of 110 even after the past 2 1/2 seasons where he struggled.

Well said. Most prospects don't make the major leagues and most of the ones who make the major leagues don't make the All-Star team.

[Fatbat]

O I was just extending a joke about power hitters with last names that end in O. I don’t think Rosario is anything like those other guys except that. At his age he has tons of time to develop better hit skills and have a better career than all 3 of those guys. I believe his real development will begin in AA when he will be 2.5 years younger than average.  I will definitely be betting on him to be a solid MLB’r in 4 years and if he finely tubes his craft, we may be talking about him for well over a decade. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Most of us who are working just don't have the time to do that. We rely on people on TD and the stats. I especially like when posters like yourself report what they actually see in person at games or on tv. Most of those reports have been glowing on Rosario's power and Miller's glove. Both need to develop other tools. Not sure why we have to bash either one of them (though I did say I was disappointed in Rosario when he was hitting .060 after two weeks in the AFL - did pretty darn good after that to get his average up to .214 by the end).

This is true, the crunch of time is real. For years I worked, coached, played, and had my own family. Life was crazy. I fit following baseball into a 11pm time slot for an hour at most. I took the kids to minor league games and that sort of thing. Time flies.

Retirement does open the gates of indulgence, for sure. I can slip off to watch games live or follow via the internet. 

Twins Daily has been a solid site for fans. The one thing I try to accomplish is attempt to help folks to understand how difficult it is to play baseball and rise to the top. The work ethic is outstanding. Development takes time. Talent isn't just physical.

My view of Rosario is of a guy who has made incremental adjustments and had steady growth. His abilities to maintain at AA and AAA will be watched. The Arizona Fall League was a stretch for him, yet he stayed above water. Too early to make any judgments on Rosario. He does not possess those freakish skills of the young prospects who may become superstars. Few do. 

The only two players who I have seen a number of times who I feel have a chance to make a leap are Emmanuel Rodriguez and David Festa. E-Rod has a long way to go with the mental part of the game and 2024 will be big for him. Likewise, Festa can be unhittable and then just groove a few pitches or fall into poor sequencing. He is learning and just because he played college doesn't mean that he should be more advanced. His body is just catching up as well. 6'-6" and 185 pounds, but he looks like he weights 130 lbs. Both of these guys seem to have more talent but they still have to learn what to do and then continually focus. It's a tough road for prospects. 

Noah Miller has a really good glove and plays with confidence in the field. He has not put up any decent looks for a sustained month ot two on offense, but he has definitely looked better over the course of the last year in the batter's box. He could become a fair player with the bat. Again, it is way too early to tell with Miller. 

I have a hard time getting down on prospects, especially when I remember myself as a teenager and young person.