Super dark horse candidate for Opening Day starting CF in 2024?

[Rik19753]

Before we dive into this, let me just make it clear that this is not my idea.

With that out of the way, here is what Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs had to say about the Twins in his article, "40-Man Roster Deadline Reaction and Analysis: American League":

"I think Emmanuel Rodriguez, who is a lock to be a top 100 prospect this offseason despite his hit tool issues, has a chance to break camp as the Twins’ starting center fielder given Byron Buxton’s persistent injury issues. He’s a big league-quality defender right now. That would allow Willi Castro (currently the center fielder on our Depth Chart) and Nick Gordon to play dynamic, multi-positional roles, which the Twins sorely lacked in 2023."

This idea seems absurd to me, but given that this is stated by Longenhagen, who is the man when it comes to prospect analysis on Fangraphs, maybe he knows something that we don't.

To me, this seems like a terrible idea that very much reminds me of how Celestino was thrown into the fire without enough minor-league experience. I would not want to risk stunting the growth of a top prospect by promoting him too early.

Do you think there is any chance that E-Rod is on the Opening Day roster in 2024? 

P.S. The latter part of Longenhagen's statement pointing out the lack of a dynamic, multi-positional role on the 2023 Twins' is head-scratching as well IMO. If Castro wasn't that, then who in the league is?

[AceWrigley]

I wonder if Walker Jenkins will be invited to camp.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Rik. I agree with you that this idea is ridiculous. I'm not even sure if E Rod can stick at CF let alone be rushed up. That'd be disasterous. This Longonhagen guy doesn't know what he's talking about. It might look good on his paper but in reality it doesn't make sense at all.

[Riverbrian]

Opening Day? 

Placing a 20 year old who hasn't seen AA yet on the 26 man roster opening day on a contending team!?!

If Longerhans is "The Man".

Based on that suggestion... he no longer is. 

Now... his clock is ticking... his options are being used. Could we see him sometime this year? Possibly... let's see what combination of events occur.

Opening Day... No Way. 

The headline of this topic is a lot like those headlines that sadly come across a news aggregator app on my phone.

"Vikings make major decision at RB".

Oh my... A major decision... I need to check this out...

Click... there it is... somewhere in the third paragraph I find out that they released some guy that hasn't carried the ball and I didn't even know he was on the roster.  

[Nine of twelve]

I'm in favor of who is best suited to handle the position. One big worry of bringing someone from deeper in the minors: see Hicks, Aaron.

[DJL44]

He suggests moving a player with "hit tool issues" from A-ball directly to the major leagues? That's a hot take.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I mean, I also enjoy playing MLB the show. If you want, you can be the Twins opening day starting pitcher  as well.

With that said, for reality, I don't see this happening for opening day. Not for THIS team with THIS front office and coaching staff.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He suggests moving a player with "hit tool issues" from A-ball directly to the major leagues? That's a hot take.

Does "hot take" mean dumb?

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

Does "hot take" mean dumb?

It's like when a Minnesotan says "that's interesting".

[Craig Arko]

56 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Does "hot take" mean dumb?

It’s hot dish that you bring back home.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I respectfully submit that Mr. Longenhagen is badly mistaken about E. Rodriguez and also just plain wrong about the Twins lacking players who played multi-positional roles successfully in 2023.   My Exhibit A is the following: Farmer, Castro, Solano, Case Closed.

[jorgenswest]

Trying to find a comp of a contender and landed in Michael Harris II. He played in High A at 20 and was in the majors by the end of May the next year. His hit tool was different but both bring a major league ready glove. He was called up early when Adam Duvall was struggling with an OPS in the 500s and less than star play in CF.

Harris shows more contact and steals with a lower walk rate and ISO to an wRC+ of 114 in high A. Rodriguez has more power and walks with the increased strikeouts that go with that profile. His wRC+ was 145 last year and 196 the previous year. 

A Twins comp might be Kirby Puckett who had a major league ready glove and jumped up to the majors on May 8 in the season after A-Ball. Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks also arrived young with a major league ready glove but their high A performance was not near a 145 wRC+. 

I am not sure it is a good idea but it isn’t a crazy one. Now that he is on the 40 Rodriguez is close. One difference between Rodriguez and the other recent Twin prospects is the major league ready glove part.

[Jocko87]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It's like when a Minnesotan says "that's interesting".

That's nice dear.

[TopGunn#22]

I appreciate the background jorgenswest provided regarding Puckett and Harris from the Braves.  It makes the suggestion plausible.  It's is still HIGHLY unlikely, but there is at least a dash of logic to it.  We've also commented on TD about how long either Emm-Rod or Jenkins could stay at CF or whether either or both will end up as corner OF even before they become big leaguers.

The Twins (hopefully) have a really good idea on that.  I just can't imagine either would suddenly just be incapable of playing CF while they're still in there 21-25 year old bodies.  And each of them could very well be a Twin by 22 years old.  With Buxton being a non-factor in the OF (and please, don't talk about Buxton being a 1B) and the Twins needing a real answer for CF in 2024, the decision to be made is this:  Can Castro/Gordon/Martin hold down CF in 2024?  Do the Twins need a long term solution like Lee Jung-hoo if Emm-Rod and Jenkins will never be CF?  Or can they patch CF together until one of them takes CF over for about 5 years?   

[Bodie]

21 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Does "hot take" mean dumb?

In this case, yes.

I'd use stronger words to describe it, but... "content moderation".

[Major League Ready]

If you are going to take the risk on a rookie, Martin makes waaaaaaay more sense with Kiersey and Erod as back-ups in the event he does not rise to the occasion.  That would allow Erod 2-3 months at AA.  Even that would be super aggressive but it's a lot better plan than jumping him from high A to MLB.

[Riverbrian]

On 11/17/2023 at 6:05 PM, jorgenswest said:

Trying to find a comp of a contender and landed in Michael Harris II. He played in High A at 20 and was in the majors by the end of May the next year. His hit tool was different but both bring a major league ready glove. He was called up early when Adam Duvall was struggling with an OPS in the 500s and less than star play in CF.

Harris shows more contact and steals with a lower walk rate and ISO to an wRC+ of 114 in high A. Rodriguez has more power and walks with the increased strikeouts that go with that profile. His wRC+ was 145 last year and 196 the previous year. 

A Twins comp might be Kirby Puckett who had a major league ready glove and jumped up to the majors on May 8 in the season after A-Ball. Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks also arrived young with a major league ready glove but their high A performance was not near a 145 wRC+. 

I am not sure it is a good idea but it isn’t a crazy one. Now that he is on the 40 Rodriguez is close. One difference between Rodriguez and the other recent Twin prospects is the major league ready glove part.

There is certainly precedence. 

But Opening Day on 26 man?

Which is what the article suggests

"I think Emmanuel Rodriguez, who is a lock to be a top 100 prospect this offseason despite his hit tool issues, has a chance to break camp as the Twins’ starting center fielder given Byron Buxton’s persistent injury issues.

[tony&rodney]

Agree with others that the idea seems like an extreme long shot if not preposterous. However, having watched Emmanuel several dozen times last summer (via milb.com) he does have an extremely quick bat. The knock on him is largely his wandering focus, where he is prone to both swinging wildly at times and just watching pitches right down the middle at other times. The strike zone awareness is excellent. Defense is almost impossible to judge from video but he sure made some nice catches and has a big accurate arm too. Em-Rod needs experience.

All that said, Longenhagen is well respected as an evaluator of minor league talent. I wouldn't object at all if Emmanuel Rodriguez made a Michael Harris II or Kirby Puckett jump to MLB. 

[2wins87]

Yeah, not a chance.  Even if they don't sign anyone and Buxton isn't ready to start the season, I'd say there are still 3 guys on the depth chart ahead of him right now.  I could see a scenario where he's pushing them to consider making a move by midseason though. I'd be thrilled if that plays out.

I'm curious what the minor league defensive metrics are on him as well.  I've seen a few highlight plays, but I've also seen him take a few adventurous routes on fairly routine flyballs which make me wonder about the overall level of his reads.  With his speed, athleticism, and arm, I would think he could still probably be MLB average in center this year, which might be all that Longenhagen is saying, but I think he still probably has room for improvement.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

On 11/17/2023 at 12:56 AM, Rik19753 said:

Before we dive into this, let me just make it clear that this is not my idea.

With that out of the way, here is what Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs had to say about the Twins in his article, "40-Man Roster Deadline Reaction and Analysis: American League":

"I think Emmanuel Rodriguez, who is a lock to be a top 100 prospect this offseason despite his hit tool issues, has a chance to break camp as the Twins’ starting center fielder given Byron Buxton’s persistent injury issues. He’s a big league-quality defender right now. That would allow Willi Castro (currently the center fielder on our Depth Chart) and Nick Gordon to play dynamic, multi-positional roles, which the Twins sorely lacked in 2023."

This idea seems absurd to me, but given that this is stated by Longenhagen, who is the man when it comes to prospect analysis on Fangraphs, maybe he knows something that we don't.

To me, this seems like a terrible idea that very much reminds me of how Celestino was thrown into the fire without enough minor-league experience. I would not want to risk stunting the growth of a top prospect by promoting him too early.

Do you think there is any chance that E-Rod is on the Opening Day roster in 2024? 

P.S. The latter part of Longenhagen's statement pointing out the lack of a dynamic, multi-positional role on the 2023 Twins' is head-scratching as well IMO. If Castro wasn't that, then who in the league is?

This. And while I wouldn't use 'dynamic' to describe Farmer and Solano, they too were multi-positional role players and while far from perfect, they were productive and always ready to play.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Defense is almost impossible to judge from video but he sure made some nice catches and has a big accurate arm too. Em-Rod needs experience.

Just from comments on TD and some experts who rank prospects, I get the impression that E-Rod is going to be okay in CF but that we are going to be saying, "Buxton/Taylor/Kiermeier (or some other great defensive CF)" would have caught that ball - that the range won't quite be the same either due to lack of experience, top line speed, or getting the right jump on the ball. Any thoughts on that? There must be some reason there is talk that he possibly moves to a corner OF position.

[jorgenswest]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

There is certainly precedence. 

But Opening Day on 26 man?

Which is what the article suggests

"I think Emmanuel Rodriguez, who is a lock to be a top 100 prospect this offseason despite his hit tool issues, has a chance to break camp as the Twins’ starting center fielder given Byron Buxton’s persistent injury issues.

True. I don’t think Rodriguez should be the plan but injuries and a good spring might make it a possibility. It isn’t crazy to believe that he could be helpful. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

There must be some reason there is talk that he possibly moves to a corner OF position.

This is the standard comment for most minor league centerfielders who have body types that trend towards bigger. The same comment was made years ago about Mike Trout. Corbin Carroll was raved about but gets moved to a corner for Alek Thomas.

All teams use their best guy in center, but not all are equal gloves. Buxton/Kiermaier/Taylor and a few others are exceptional centerfielders. I would guess that Emmanuel can play the position as well as any or all of Gallo, Kepler, Castro, Gordon, and Martin. One thing to keep in mind is that there is a real learning curve for outfielders when they arrive to The Show. The stadiums are bigger and the wind flows along with the lights and crowds take a little time to learn. Once a player gets comfortable the superior lighting and fields actually help them as opposed to some of the conditions faced in the minor leagues. 

Either way, E-Rod has some learning to experience and the maturation process is important. 2024 is a big year for him because the competition and expertise at both AA and AAA will challenge his physical and mental progression.

[Fatbat]

On 11/17/2023 at 8:20 PM, Jocko87 said:

That's nice dear.

Uuf dah. 

[Fatbat]

Thats as crazy as putting Dobnak on the 26 man, having him pitch opening day and then DFA him hoping he gets claimed off waivers to save his $2.5M milb dead money salary. Let the kid develop in Wichita. 

[lecroy24fan]

Looking at the title of the thread I was expecting it to be Buxton.

[JD-TWINS]

Sorely lacking …. “….dynamic multi position player….” sounds to me the exact definition of Wiili Castro in ‘23 - not sure what Mr. Fangraphs was watching??

[dxpavelka]

Not even sure that your best (maybe only legitimate) CF prospect should even be considered a dark horse.  It's a different world now but when the team brought up a young CF in May of 1984 most Twins fans had never even heard of him.  THAT was a dark horse.  And played out pretty well.

 

[Reptevia]

Buxton is the biggest dark horse to be playing CF. 

[farmerguychris]

I'd rather go with Martin.