Twins 2023 Draft Class Off to a Fast Start

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins embarked upon the 2023 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft, they found themselves in an enviable position. The first draft lottery pushed them up the board. Picking fifth overall instead of 13th, the organization was bound to get a stud in a loaded crop of prospects. It’s gone even better than imagined.

 

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

While Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews were the talk of the top pick, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins were all considered worthwhile top picks in many years. Minnesota stayed true to their board in grabbing Jenkins, and if early returns are anything to dream of, he's not the only one to be excited about.

Jenkins has been everything expected and then some. Playing at both the rookie ball and Single-A levels, he looked like the game was too easy. Across 26 games, Jenkins slashed .362/.417/.571 with five doubles, four triples, and three home runs. He commanded the zone as a player well above his age, posting a 14/9 K/BB.

If Jenkins was expected to be this good, he has brought many of his draft mates.

Second-round pick Luke Keaschall, taken out of Arizona State, has graduated to High-A Cedar Rapids. Playing for a championship in his first season, Keaschall has also been an integral part at each stop. In 31 regular season games, he slashed .288/.414/.478 with 10 doubles, a triple, and three homers. He consistently puts the ball in play and made quick work of Low-A Fort Myers.

The third-round pick, Brandon Winokur, was deemed a raw, five-tool talent. His .884 OPS across 17 games in rookie ball was highlighted by five doubles and four home runs. He didn't jump up as quickly as Jenkins, but there should be expected to be more of a developmental curve here. Winokur is a mature young man who presented well in his limited professional action.

The Twins took a bunch of pitchers. Most weren't forced into significant playing time out of the gate. While a handful appeared in Complex or Florida State League action, it's far too soon to evaluate them.

Former Penn State infielder Jay Harry also looked the part early. In 30 games, Harry slashed .339/.434/.468. He's not much of a power guy at this point, but nine doubles showed an ability to find gaps.

Neither of the Twins' last two picks, both high school position players, signed, but neither Sam Parker nor Ashton Larson were taken as anything more than a fallback option. 

Minnesota went heavy on pitching in this draft, so how the arms, especially youngster Charlee Soto, develop remains to be seen. The organization couldn't be happier for the few hitters they did take.

It's worth wondering if Jenkins starts at High-A in 2024, and that would make a meteoric rise similar to Orioles' Jackson Holliday plausible. If Jenkins gets to Triple-A or even masters Double-A next season, it would be hard to see him as anything but a big-league option in 2025.

Both Keaschall and Harry might have been safer picks from the standpoint of their veteran status coming out of college, but to see each acclimate so quickly is nice to have when looking for future depth options. Being able to play at advanced levels so quickly should do wonders for their confidence and future development.

If the Twins hit on this draft class from a pitching standpoint, anything like they have with the bats, it could go down as one of the best in the Derek Falvey era.

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[old nurse]

Nice starts by the players. It isn’t always the fastest horse out of the gate

[Brandon]

So far 2019 draft class is their best draft.  I’ll say more soon.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

So far 2019 draft class is their best draft.  I’ll say more soon.

Cavaco is a massive miss, as was Canterino. That said, they got a TON of depth and guys that have turned into something from that class. Varland and Julien late, Isola in the 29th round. They did good there, yes.

[roger]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Cavaco is a massive miss, as was Canterino. That said, they got a TON of depth and guys that have turned into something from that class. Varland and Julien late, Isola in the 29th round. They did good there, yes.

Do not consider Canterino a miss.  No one can project injuries.  

[DocBauer]

They've been on a bit of a draft roll since 20198, IMO, even with Cavaco a reach that shouldn't have been taken. I'm going to argue against Canterino being a miss at this point. While injuries have probably deprived him of being anything close to the starting pitcher who dreamed of, I believe there's still a reasonable chance his TJ surgery gets his career back on track as a potentially strong back of the pen option. And there's still real value in that.

2020 was so weird based on covid. So little playing time lead to lesser evaluations of prospects, and the shear lack of size of the class was all odd. For the Twins, the jury is still out. I don't think Sabato is going to cut it. But Soularie is starting to look like the athletic, toolsy player he was supposed to be now that he's been staying healthy. Raya and Rosario are looking like legit prospects. 2 out of 4 would be pretty good, even with missing on the 1st pick.

A lot of 2021 is gone via trades. But those picks allowed the Twins to make those moves. On top of that, they still have Miller as a position player, a couple of decent looking catcher prospects in Cardenas and Winkel, and a couple other bats that haven't exactly looked bad. On the mound, they have top prospect Festa, decent prospect Nowlin, and a few other arms that have a shot. (Some of which are still barely getting their careers underway after immediate surgeries).

Last year's class is my favorite so far, even with questions about Prielipp's future in doubt. To get Lee was fantastic. We've seen some really good early looks from Schobel, Ross, Ortega and Cossett. And virtually every other arm has looked solid to great so far. Is it early? Absolutely. But this draft sure is looking promising so far.

And while I appreciate this article, and the early optimism, to me it's just too early to say, even with the early performances of Jenkins, Winokur, Keaschall, and Harry (who I expected little from, to be honest). But the arms just haven't had a chance to be unleashed yet, so I have to give 2023 a big incomplete right now. This time next year, however, it might be the best draft the FO has had.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Do not consider Canterino a miss.  

And he's not done yet. The Twins wouldn't be including him on the 40 man if he was.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Do not consider Canterino a miss.  No one can project injuries.  

That's a fair take, but there's not a great track record of health coming out of Rice. I'm still excited about him as a reliever.

[dxpavelka]

9 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

That's a fair take, but there's not a great track record of health coming out of Rice. I'm still excited about him as a reliever.

Pretty sure that where a guy went to school is not really all that much of an indicator of future health.

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, dxpavelka said:

Pretty sure that where a guy went to school is not really all that much of an indicator of future health.

 

It is if they are from Rice

[Blyleven2011]

Good article  and alot of good responses  ...

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It is if they are from Rice

That kind of thinking is how stupid decisions are made

[AceWrigley]

If a pitcher's arm ever came off during a game, I'd venture he went to college at Rice.

[Twinsgypsy]

15 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Pretty sure that where a guy went to school is not really all that much of an indicator of future health.

 

Rice has a history of over using their pitchers so that many have developed arm issues or never make the majors

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Alright lets get this topic back on track.   The 2023 Twins draft.  

I have said this draft has the potential to be a franchise altering draft.  Slightly hyperbole maybe,  but it had the the talent to achieve that.  

They drafted and signed 4 bats.  There is still a possibility they sign Parker this spring.  I would say that is a 50/50 possibility,  however all 4 bats are playing at a high level.  Jenkins looks the part of what many said was a #1 draft pick.  As of now,  nothing has popped up regarding his hips (good sign).  His power numbers will increase and as he continues to develop more muscle mass.  If his contact rates and eye discipline continue to be good you have an elite player on your hands.  

Winokur in the third was a massive swing (high bonus as well).  As of now it has paid off.   Had Jenkins had his numbers people in Twinkies land would have been pretty happy.   I really wanted him to move up with Jenkins but acknowledge you ended the season with a good note and continue to develop his skills.  You have the ability at another high end talent.  

Keaschall and Harry are both contacts hitters that looked destined to make it AAA and will then see if they can make it to the big leagues.  Harry is all effort and probably doesn't have quite the raw skills Keaschall does.  The Twins definitely seemed to have a more balanced approach of finding more contact hitters through out the drafts.  

As to the pitchers we haven't seen much.  So is this article early.  A tad, but honestly I don't even need to see them to know we are going to hit on several.  Currently the A and A+ ball coaches have been off the charts.  I would really like to see some articles on these guys,  because what they are doing with pitchers is amazing.  Increasing velocity,  redefining pitches, developing command.   The talent coming in this year is basically double of what we have had in previous drafts.  Soto has the ability to be a high end pitcher.  He has a slightly better build but seems very similar to Chase Petty.  You also added another high school pitcher in Questad.  I know very little on Quested.  Seems to be a lottery pick to me, high ceiling low floor in the 5th round.  

The college pitchers is where they will make their bread and butter.  Hall is an elite pitcher already.  I assume the Twins will add velocity and unless he has injury I have very little doubt he will have lots of success.  Santos was a signing bonus savings so not going to discuss much.  Stoffal Dougherty Dunn Langenberg, Pasqualotto and Lee are all pitchers that have more talent and ability than what we usually get in rounds 8-13.  Some are flame throwers, some were #1 pitchers in their system that struggle slightly last year, and some had injuries.  I could hope all succeed but we know that isn't likely.  If 2 of these develop its a great draft, if more than 2 develop we are back into my historic draft possibilities.  

That is ignoring the rest of the small school pitchers that we have had success in the past of developing.  Santos, Bengard, Silvas, Bragg, and Garcia.   

This was a pitching heavy draft with some big swings on hitter early.  If the hitters pan out,  which this article is stating we are well on our way to eclipsing the 2019 draft and in the realm of best drafts ever.  Yes it is early and we have seen prospects fizzle out.  As long as Jenkins performs we will be happy with this draft,  but I will be keeping a keen eye on those pitchers next year, and expect to be very happy with what I see.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

They've been on a bit of a draft roll since 20198, IMO, even with Cavaco a reach that shouldn't have been taken. I'm going to argue against Canterino being a miss at this point. While injuries have probably deprived him of being anything close to the starting pitcher who dreamed of, I believe there's still a reasonable chance his TJ surgery gets his career back on track as a potentially strong back of the pen option. And there's still real value in that.

2020 was so weird based on covid. So little playing time lead to lesser evaluations of prospects, and the shear lack of size of the class was all odd. For the Twins, the jury is still out. I don't think Sabato is going to cut it. But Soularie is starting to look like the athletic, toolsy player he was supposed to be now that he's been staying healthy. Raya and Rosario are looking like legit prospects. 2 out of 4 would be pretty good, even with missing on the 1st pick.

A lot of 2021 is gone via trades. But those picks allowed the Twins to make those moves. On top of that, they still have Miller as a position player, a couple of decent looking catcher prospects in Cardenas and Winkel, and a couple other bats that haven't exactly looked bad. On the mound, they have top prospect Festa, decent prospect Nowlin, and a few other arms that have a shot. (Some of which are still barely getting their careers underway after immediate surgeries).

Last year's class is my favorite so far, even with questions about Prielipp's future in doubt. To get Lee was fantastic. We've seen some really good early looks from Schobel, Ross, Ortega and Cossett. And virtually every other arm has looked solid to great so far. Is it early? Absolutely. But this draft sure is looking promising so far.

And while I appreciate this article, and the early optimism, to me it's just too early to say, even with the early performances of Jenkins, Winokur, Keaschall, and Harry (who I expected little from, to be honest). But the arms just haven't had a chance to be unleashed yet, so I have to give 2023 a big incomplete right now. This time next year, however, it might be the best draft the FO has had.

2022 class appears to be very good.  Getting Lee was a gift.  If I were to stack these drafts on how I expect them to turn out I would currently  have ranked   2023, 2019, 2022, 2021.  Yes we traded away 2021 but I am ok with that.  

2022 with Lee immediately jumps that draft class up.  The number of hits in 2019 with still missing on Cavaco and Canterino so far is just crazy.  2022 can pass that 2019 class but you need close to all star numbers from Lee or some more players coming up to join him.  

Doc you have kept tabs on the minors for several years.  Do you have confidence that the A and A+ coaching staff can develop the current draft class.  You have to admit their talent and coming from higher level programs is much better than previous years.  Yes its still inconclusive, but unless something falls apart I don't see how at least 2-3 don't develop to be top 20 prospects.  

[Squirrel]

Moderator note: if y’all want to start a topic about the track record of pitchers coming out of Rice, do so. But for this topic, stick to it and quit your sniping at one another.

[roger]

18 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

That's a fair take, but there's not a great track record of health coming out of Rice. I'm still excited about him as a reliever.

No question about how Rice handles their pitchers.  Does that mean someone with awesome potential is available and he is from Rice you don't take him?  Expect that was the case with Canterino and the Twins are dealing with getting him back to good health.  Hopefully, the Rule 5 and other rules will give them time to get him to their roster before they are forced into losing him.  Still unbelievably high on him.  Whether that is as a starter, or more likely beginning his career in the pen.  Both work for me.

[Richmond Dude]

On 9/18/2023 at 11:18 AM, roger said:

No question about how Rice handles their pitchers.  Does that mean someone with awesome potential is available and he is from Rice you don't take him?  Expect that was the case with Canterino and the Twins are dealing with getting him back to good health.  Hopefully, the Rule 5 and other rules will give them time to get him to their roster before they are forced into losing him.  Still unbelievably high on him.  Whether that is as a starter, or more likely beginning his career in the pen.  Both work for me.

How does this work with injured minor leaguers?  Do they still have to be added to the 40-man at the same time if they're currently injured or is there some sort of exemption for long-term injuries at that level?

[roger]

10 hours ago, Richmond Dude said:

How does this work with injured minor leaguers?  Do they still have to be added to the 40-man at the same time if they're currently injured or is there some sort of exemption for long-term injuries at that level?

No exemptions, which makes it difficult for adding to and maintaining the 40-man.