Pinch Hitting Worked

[Greggory Masterson]

Pinch-hitting was a disaster for the Twins at the beginning of the year. However, they're still one of the best teams in the league at it.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

 

If you ask a Twins fan, “What does Rocco Baldelli love more than anything else?” you’ll probably hear some form of “make substitutions” as a response. Depending on the fan, that response could have any level of emotion to it. Love it or hate it, Rocco loves himself some substitutions.

His strategy of trying to win right now—with less concern about what will happen later in the game—has led to the Twins pinch-hitting the third most times in the league in 2023 (and the tenth most pinch-running). He especially likes platoon swaps in-game, sometimes rolling out total line changes when the opponent brings in a left-handed reliever with as many as four pinch hitters.

The rationale is straightforward. Left-handed hitters struggle against left-handed pitchers. The lefty greats are usable against same-handed pitchers, but none can do nearly the same amount of damage that they can against righties. Even an average righty hitter could be the better choice in that case.

Those average righties can start against left-handed pitchers, too. After the opposing lefty leaves, a manager can bring in all of the left-handed hitters and maintain a strong lineup.

Baldelli has undoubtedly bought into that idea.

As early as Opening Day, the play was on. In the sixth inning, Kyle Farmer hit for Nick Gordon against lefty Amir Garrett and walked. Donovan Solano then hit for Joey Gallo and singled, driving in Trevor Larnach for the season’s first run. They finished the last four innings at second and first base, respectively.

The strategy was off to a good start. After Opening Day, though: yeesh.

In a June 30th mailbag, Athletic writer Aaron Gleeman reported that although the Twins had used the second-most pinch hitters in MLB to that point in the season (91 in 82 games), they ranked 26th in OPS at a paltry .496.

That’s a pretty abysmal performance. For reference, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien—players who have essentially been banned from hitting against lefties this season—have a .470 and .452 OPS against left-handed pitchers, respectively. They were only marginally worse than all pinch hitters to that point in the season. Against lefties specifically, Minnesota had the 28th-highest OPS from pinch hitters: .490.

At that point, fans and team personnel had to question whether the lineup jumbling and complicated role structure on the team was worth the effort. Why not just let the young lefties play the whole game? Did they need to go through all this effort just to get a different version of a bad result?

Fast-forward to mid-September. It’s been two and a half months since that low point. The Twins currently have a .723 OPS from their pinch hitters on the season, just a hair under the MLB average for all hitters. That’s good for eighth in the league. Somehow, after all that struggle and consternation, the Twins have cracked the top ten.

From the beginning of July through September 15th, Twins pinch hitters had 80 plate appearances (third in MLB) with a .997 OPS (second in MLB) and a 170 wRC+ (best in MLB). Their pinch hitters have been on an absolute tear. That includes a .785 OPS (sixth in MLB) against lefties from their pinch hitters.

Now, 80 plate appearances is little to go off. It’s a month’s worth of plate appearances for a full-time player. However, it does provide hope that the big-bench, pinch-hitting approach can work in the playoffs. 11 different players had pinch-hit since the beginning of July, and only Solano, Matt Wallner, and Christian Vazquez had an OPS below .750 during that time.

Admittedly, fans can count on one hand the number of times many of the names at the top of the list have pinch-hit—two for Jorge Polanco, three for Ryan Jeffers, and so on. However, other than Donovan Solano (11 plate appearances), who has otherwise been the paragon of consistency on this team, the guys the Twins will look to as pinch hitters have performed well.

Jordan Luplow (11 PA) and Kyle Farmer (10 PA) will be looked to mid-game against lefties, and they have a 1.260 and .800 OPS, respectively, as pinch hitters. Edouard Julien (11 PA) would be considered a substitution if he sits against a lefty starter, and he’s had a .909 OPS as a pinch hitter since the beginning of July.

Of course, these are small samples, and dividing it amongst individual hitters isn’t an entirely meaningful analytical exercise. However, the practice of pinch-hitting has helped the team throughout the year, especially in the second half.

There is reason to feel trepidation about Baldelli opening up his bench during playoff games. An early move that doesn’t work out can kneecap a team later in the game. There is a general pinch-hitter penalty for batters, as coming in cold off the bench isn’t an ideal way to prepare for a plate appearance.

However, it’s been working lately. Some have suggested that players have adapted to the unorthodox style, and there’s something to be said for a learning curve. No one truly has a day off on these Twins teams. If it’s a system that a player is unfamiliar with, it might take a while to adjust.

In this small sample, they have adjusted. Or it’s just noise. I won’t sit here and declare it fixed or a brilliant strategy. It’s just worth remembering that the practice hasn’t been as comically bad as it initially seemed.

In the Wild Card, there might be a total of five such pinch hits. Who knows if it will actually work, but recent performance has me hopeful that it will.

 

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[mikelink45]

I still worry about the substitution of lesser players early in the game.  RP keep coming in, the left are becomes the right arm.  I am not convinced that we are better off with Rocco's strategy. 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I still worry about the substitution of lesser players early in the game.  RP keep coming in, the left are becomes the right arm.  I am not convinced that we are better off with Rocco's strategy. 

Agreed on the early game moves. Emptying your bench by the 6th isn't anything I'm likely to ever be in support of. A lot of that comes down to knowing who's available in the other pen, but taking away any possible future moves by the 6th when you know the entire lineup gets another AB doesn't make much sense to me. A singular 2 out pinch hit move with runners in scoring position in the 5th or 6th? I can buy that. But blowing up your bench by then doesn't seem like the right move to me.

I'm quite interested to see how the Twins use their bench in the playoffs (I don't like to say "Rocco's strategy," because I don't think it's just his, it's the orgs). The extremes with which they pinch hit in the regular season makes sense because of the length of the regular season. Fans tend to judge each move on a more individual basis, but the strategy is a "for the long haul" kind of strategy. They don't expect to win each situation, but they expect to win more situations over 162 games than they would without pinch hitting. But a 3, 5, or 7 game series isn't a long haul, it's a sprint. Pinch hitting for Julien in the 6th, or sooner, when you know that spot is coming up again later in the game would/will frustrate me greatly. They're going to carry 15 position players, though, I'd guess. So I'm not going to be surprised at all to see early pinch hitting moves with a plan to replace the righty with a different lefty later in the game if called for. But I'm not going to like it. I don't want Stevenson up with the tying run at 2nd in the 9th. The playoffs are a time to shrink your bench and pen, and just let your best guys see if they're better than the other team's best guys.

[Brandon]

Rocco is channeling his inner Jim Dwyer.  (Former Twin who was at one point all time pinch hitter with the most hits as a pinch hitter). 

[DocBauer]

I remember the mailbag episode and Gleeman's report. I was disappointed and almost dumbfounded at how poor the PH numbers were at the time. To see the turnaround is impressive, to say the least. I do think using all of your players, letting everyone get actual game time in instead of sitting on the bench for days at a time, does help lead to better PH results. 

* If you had told me that Solano was NOT amongst the team's best PH I never would have believed you.

*If you had told me Luplow had been that good as a PH I never would have believed you either.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Agreed on the early game moves. Emptying your bench by the 6th isn't anything I'm likely to ever be in support of. A lot of that comes down to knowing who's available in the other pen, but taking away any possible future moves by the 6th when you know the entire lineup gets another AB doesn't make much sense to me. A singular 2 out pinch hit move with runners in scoring position in the 5th or 6th? I can buy that. But blowing up your bench by then doesn't seem like the right move to me.

I'm quite interested to see how the Twins use their bench in the playoffs (I don't like to say "Rocco's strategy," because I don't think it's just his, it's the orgs). The extremes with which they pinch hit in the regular season makes sense because of the length of the regular season. Fans tend to judge each move on a more individual basis, but the strategy is a "for the long haul" kind of strategy. They don't expect to win each situation, but they expect to win more situations over 162 games than they would without pinch hitting. But a 3, 5, or 7 game series isn't a long haul, it's a sprint. Pinch hitting for Julien in the 6th, or sooner, when you know that spot is coming up again later in the game would/will frustrate me greatly. They're going to carry 15 position players, though, I'd guess. So I'm not going to be surprised at all to see early pinch hitting moves with a plan to replace the righty with a different lefty later in the game if called for. But I'm not going to like it. I don't want Stevenson up with the tying run at 2nd in the 9th. The playoffs are a time to shrink your bench and pen, and just let your best guys see if they're better than the other team's best guys.

I don’t want to see Julien up in the 6th with 2 guys on & we’re down a run, with a LH pitcher on the mound, and we can PH Solano…… but don’t because we’re worried about what might be in the 9th.

Gotta try to score when the opportunity presents itself - more so in the Playoffs!!

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t want to see Julien up in the 6th with 2 guys on & we’re down a run, with a LH pitcher on the mound, and we can PH Solano…… but don’t because we’re worried about what might be in the 9th.

Gotta try to score when the opportunity presents itself - more so in the Playoffs!!

What's the score? Not just "down a run," but is it 12-13 or 0-1? Who's left in their pen? Can the lefty be pulled for a righty, or does he have to face Solano? Who's left on the Twins bench? How many outs? Who's up next? How good is the lefty, and what are his splits like? Have other guys already been subbed in?

Sure, there are times that it makes sense. Shouldn't have spoken in such concrete terms in that sentence. But if it's just an "auto-pinch hit" like Rocco seems to do sometimes and it actually leads to a better pitcher facing Solano cold off the bench I'll be upset.

This is a good example of why relying on platoon split advantages is far less ideal than just having really good hitters. You have to try to score when the opportunity presents itself, but the ultimate goal is scoring more in the game as a whole. Relying on platoon advantages, and making lots of substitutions, makes it harder to maximize all of your opportunities in a singular game as a whole. It's advantageous over the course of 162 games, but not necessarily in an individual game.

[Jocko87]

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The pinch hitting worked out nicely and according to the radio call was setup that way on purpose.  I was wondering about the LLRR bottom of the lineup but apparently Rocco planned it that way.  He just happened to have two guys who rake against lefties and can play those specific positions ready to go.  Score one for Rocco.  

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I think the way the lineup was set for this strategy this typically would happen in the 7th given average game at bats or 8th in a really tight game.  It came up in the 6th because the bases were loaded multiple times, 21 LOB.  Normally that wouldn't matter as you would expect a bunch of runs with that many base runners.  They will come.

I like the setup and its a perfect example of what Rocco can do with the better personnel.  With the minimum batter rule he can stack a lineup to flip the L/R to his advantage either way, by making the move or leaving them in.  I questioned the initial lineup but now that I see the execution I'm a fan.

 

I copied my posts from the opening day game thread in reaction to those early switches.  After watching it for a season I'm convinced they set lineups based on the advantages they think they can gain late and close situations.  Opening day was an example what you can do with a healthy roster and we will see more of it.  On opening day it worked out perfectly where they were able to force a plus matchup against a reliever that can't be pulled.  We have seen it work out not as great throughout the season but its no doubt a long term strategy in place.

When Rocco happens to have a pair of platoon hitters that happen to slot defensively for the guys they hit for, its not an accident.

Opening day box score