Louie Varland is the X-Factor in the Twins' Bullpen

[Lou Hennessy]

Make no mistake, local kid Louie Varland still has a future in the Twins’ starting rotation. But for the remaining three weeks and almost certainly into the playoffs, he is going to be counted on in some critical opportunities out of the bullpen. What has his small sample of work showed us so far and what’s the best-case scenario for Minnesota’s native son going forward?

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett

Something’s different about Louie Varland since he returned to the big leagues last week. 

He has the same Minnesota charm that made him a fan-favorite upon his debut near the end of last season. He’s still showing a knack for giving up the long ball. And he’s still showcasing a starter’s pitch repertoire.

But suddenly, the 25-year-old rookie is displaying the confidence and enthusiasm of a seasoned veteran now that he’s coming in out of the bullpen. It’s not to say he lacked that fire as a starter, but the energy has evolved with his new role. And now he’s riding that momentum into a significant role on a likely postseason-bound roster. Though we’re still looking at a small sample of work when lauding his performance as a reliever, Varland has been electric, and it’s that type of electricity that can make all the difference for a team when they enter the postseason. 

Aside from the confidence and energy that Varland has displayed in his handful of games out of the ‘pen, his raw stuff is also playing up. His fastball has always been his bread and butter. It was his only pitch when he started playing college ball for Concordia University in St. Paul. And now that he doesn’t have to worry about conserving his energy for a starter’s in-game workload, the former Golden Bear can truly let it fly, knowing his outing will be short. 

So far, his velocity on his four-seam fastball has seen a significant jump in relief, just as planned. He averaged a respectable 94.9 MPH on his heater as a starting pitcher, but that figure has jumped to 97.2 MPH since rejoining the club in this new role. He also topped out at 100.2 MPH in one of his last tune-ups with Triple-A St. Paul. That’s exactly what the team’s top brass wanted when they started mapping out Varland’s usage a few weeks ago. 

But as compelling as that added fastball velocity is to Twins’ fans, it isn’t enough to get by against playoff-caliber teams. It’s undoubtedly an excellent place to start, but at least one more plus-offering is crucial to sustained success at the game’s highest level. 

We’ve seen opponents going up and hacking early in the count, knowing that Varland will highlight that heater and pound the strike zone early on. So when the opponents recognized this, they would sit on his good-not-great 94.9 MPH fastball, which led to more hard-hit balls and more home runs (2.31 HR/9). 

Hitters have swung at 57% of his pitches since making his relief debut last week, which is the seventh-highest in MLB in that span, according to Inside Edge. That makes his secondary offerings all the more critical. 

The good news is that his cutter has emerged as that complimentary weapon. That pitch has also seen a velocity increase out of the bullpen, averaging 91.7 MPH with more spin than he saw when used as a starting pitcher. That’s led to more swing-and-misses and limited damage when it gets hit (.182 slugging percentage allowed, .174 expected slugging). While the fastball has been Varland’s marquee offering early in at-bats, the cutter has become his dagger. This can be seen in its increased usage as Varland’s “put away” pitch, otherwise known as his selection, when the count gets to two strikes. 

When done well, this combination can be a genuinely dominant pairing for a reliever. It’s the one-two punch that shines in postseason play when punchouts and weakly hit balls are at a premium. But the pitcher must have the confidence, poise, and electricity Varland has shown as a reliever so far to execute it in any given at-bat. Beyond that, it takes a multi-inning capability to transform a relief arm into a unique and highly desirable asset. 

Adding a healthy and thriving Varland couldn’t be a better time for an inconsistent bullpen. Griffin Jax has provided a mostly great season but has been leaking oil since August. His usage will have to come down, and someone will need to fill in when he’s unavailable. If Varland can pass some of those high-leverage tests between now and the start of the postseason, it could feed the positive momentum he’s currently riding into October. 

What do you think? Where would you put Varland in the current bullpen hierarchy? Do you trust the early results? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. 

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[TopGunn#22]

Excellent article Lou and I agree 100%.  Varland is a cool drink of water on a blisteringly hot summer day for the Twins BP.  Saying Jax has been leaking oil since August is spot on.  He needs an IL stint to rest and refresh like Joe Ryan and Baily Ober.  Ober looked great last night and Ryan has looked sharp since he came back.  The Twins are in a position to give Jax that break, especially with Varland taking on high leverage situations successfully so far. 

In an earlier this week article about "should Maeda move to the BP for the playoffs" I wrote he certainly should.  He's had tremendous success doing that when he was with the Dodgers and I feel his effective starting days are over.  He then went out and pitched brilliantly.  But I still think he's too inconsistent to be considered a SP for 2024 and beyond.  Maeda and Varland are two "secret weapons" lurking in the Twins BP for the post season.  If they can refresh Jax that's an additional arm that really gives them serious depth.  A season long weakness could become a huge strength come playoff time.  

[Karbo]

He throws strikes and works fast. Now lets hope he can continue into the playoffs and not let the pressure get to him.

[pierre75275]

I think it is really important we get Brock Stewart back and healthy and sharp for our bullpen.

With him, Varland, Theilbar, Duran Jax Pagan and Kenta I like that bullpen.

[CRF]

Louie > Jax

[Brett]

A playoff bullpen with at least 2 of Varland, Maeda, and Ober is better than a regular season bullpen of at least 2 of Sands, Winder, and Balazovic. 
Can we just skip to the end and start the playoffs next week?

[Linus]

I know Varland wants to be a starter and I don’t blame him but…….wouldn’t it be nice to bring a guy out of the bullpen that throw the hell out of the ball for 3 innings?

[Battle ur tail off]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

I know Varland wants to be a starter and I don’t blame him but…….wouldn’t it be nice to bring a guy out of the bullpen that throw the hell out of the ball for 3 innings?

Yes, and having an 8th inning HAMMER is just as important some games as the starter. He will get his chance in the rotation as players leave for FA, etc, but for now, let this kid throw max effort for 1-2 innings a shot and let's roll. 

MN product and trains at Starters too. Awesome

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, Lou Hennessy said:

What do you think? Where would you put Varland in the current bullpen hierarchy? Do you trust the early results? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. 

 

I have Duran, Theilbar, Varland, Pagan right now as my Hammer guys. It's the stuff that does it for me. He looks NASTY when he knows he can pitch at full effort for an inning or two. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Varland will definitely be a great asset for our BP.  Thanks Louie for swallowing your starter-mentality pride and doing what is best for the team at this time.  You'll be rewarded for it next spring when you are in the starting rotation.

[Fatbat]

Varland is throwing smoke and is “pitching” like a leverage hammer. He better get a postseason roster spot. There are a few RP that I would leave off but he needs to be given the ball. 

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Brett said:

A playoff bullpen with at least 2 of Varland, Maeda, and Ober is better than a regular season bullpen of at least 2 of Sands, Winder, and Balazovic. 
Can we just skip to the end and start the playoffs next week?

You forgot Headrick.

Sands, Winder, Balazovich, and Headrick…..

[Brandon]

I do like how our bullpen is shaping up. I still want to see 3 or 4 more appearances from Varland out of the pen which he should easily get before the playoffs.  
 

and I am rooting for Paddack and Brock to be ready for the playoffs bullpen too.  

[jimbo92107]

I don't expect Varland to be as effective as Jax has been this season out of the bullpen. Jax has a full set of good pitches and great control...until lately. Varland has one plus pitch, plus one good pitch. If the cutter fails, his heater isn't enough to survive. 

For that reason I'm hoping Brock Stewart gets very healthy very quickly. I'd rather see Steward in the BP than a tired Jax or Paddack, who is a scary long-shot. If I'm the Twins, I don't pitch Paddack unless every other option is injured. 

[NotAboutWinning]

I noticed last night how quickly he pitches. Starting his motion just a second or 2 after the batter is set.

[mrtwinsfan]

2 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

I noticed last night how quickly he pitches. Starting his motion just a second or 2 after the batter is set.

which in the right spot , can be a weapon,  LOUIE!!!!!!!!!!!

[PatPfund]

I don't want to skip to the end, because I think we have other X factors on the horizon like Stewart and Alcala (who in particular would need to show effectiveness at the MLB level before being a possible post-season add). More than worrying about how Varland fits amongst the one inning RPs, I love how he can go out and dominate for 2-3 innings, which can be critical in playoff games where the starts are often cut shorter.

[Doctor Wu]

Very good article. I'm hoping that Varland can thrive in the bullpen, but as jimbo noted, his repertoire of pitches is limited, so I'm not sure what his long term role will be. But I love the recent increase in velocity from him. 

[Jeff K]

On 9/16/2023 at 9:58 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Excellent article Lou and I agree 100%.  Varland is a cool drink of water on a blisteringly hot summer day for the Twins BP.  Saying Jax has been leaking oil since August is spot on.  He needs an IL stint to rest and refresh like Joe Ryan and Baily Ober.  Ober looked great last night and Ryan has looked sharp since he came back.  The Twins are in a position to give Jax that break, especially with Varland taking on high leverage situations successfully so far. 

In an earlier this week article about "should Maeda move to the BP for the playoffs" I wrote he certainly should.  He's had tremendous success doing that when he was with the Dodgers and I feel his effective starting days are over.  He then went out and pitched brilliantly.  But I still think he's too inconsistent to be considered a SP for 2024 and beyond.  Maeda and Varland are two "secret weapons" lurking in the Twins BP for the post season.  If they can refresh Jax that's an additional arm that really gives them serious depth.  A season long weakness could become a huge strength come playoff time.  

Speaking of secret weapons, let's not forget Brock Stewart and hopefully Paddack.  Brock Stewart was part of the 7th/8th inning pitching pre injury.  I think he is a solid bet to regain that trust and positioning.

[Jeff K]

17 hours ago, PatPfund said:

I don't want to skip to the end, because I think we have other X factors on the horizon like Stewart and Alcala (who in particular would need to show effectiveness at the MLB level before being a possible post-season add). More than worrying about how Varland fits amongst the one inning RPs, I love how he can go out and dominate for 2-3 innings, which can be critical in playoff games where the starts are often cut shorter.

I just can't see the Twins taking a chance on Alcala in 2023.  Too many choices ahead of him and too much at stake.