How Do You Solve a Problem Like Ma...........Max Kepler?

[Schmoeman5]

Just now, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with all that but keep reading that Kepler doesn't want to or won't play CF. I have no idea if that's true but that's the reasoning given for the lack of CF days for Kepler.   

That's why I said if he resists, then he's gone. I'm pretty sure he realizes that his time in Minn is in jeopardy.  If my job were on the line and I loved the game and was a clubhouse leader and was making 8 million a year I'd shovel chicken poop to stay. 

[stringer bell]

36 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I have a question. With the current state of the Twins, Buxton as DH, MAT in CF. Would the Twins be better if Kepler played CF vs RHP. with Wallner Larnach Gallo Castro Kirilloff manning the corner OF positions MAT vs LHP.  And Kepler and Taylor  as defensive replacements/ pinch hitters when not starting. If Kepler resists then he's gone.

We're at a point in the season where it isn't SSS and MAT has a better OPS against RH pitching than Max does. 

If the other eight spots proceed as expected, having Taylor and his 86 OPS+ in center isn't a big problem. Having Kepler and his 76 OPS+ is by far the larger problem.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, MTV said:

I still think Kep still has some Value, at least more value than a DFA or a space where the Twins eat his salary. I think he’d be worth a solid prospect or 2, but I do think the trade deadline is the place to swap him. My ideal trade for Kepler is to trade him and Donovan Solano to the Seattle Mariners for OF Jonatan Clase and RHP Prelander Berroa, the M’s #12 and #14 prospects. Clase has had a breakout year and is one of the fastest players in the minors, and looks like a prime candidate to cover center Field. He’s already stolen 36 bags in 48 games, on top of posting a .952 OPS. On the other hand, Berroa has electric stuff and would work well in a high-leverage relief role, which the Twins need right now. He’s held a modest ERA around 4.5, and is beginning to transition into a relief role in the high minors.

Unless we drum up a contender that really needs a defensive OF & is in need of platoon depth from the right side, we are wish thinking. I guess those 2 needs are potentially out there………..don’t see ANY potential for return from the trade though since we’d be relieving ourselves of $8-9 million for the last 2.5 months of salary. Trading Donny Barrels has a little value but Max is arguably “washed”. His .246BA on balls put into play was a league worst as of last week. That’s the definition of “washed”.

The team that needs this combination is The Twins, using Kepler as a twice a week starter for defense & rest of other guys. Don’t love it as a solution but it’s practical to keep him at least until Gordon is healthy. Want Walner or Larnach starting in front of him regularly.

[ICTwin25]

Fans and the Front Office are running out of excuses for Kepler. His bat as been awful for a while and this year he's the exact opposite of clutch. Late & Close, his splits are .083/.120/.208. When the Twins are trailing, his splits are .136/.156/.318. Are we trying to win a division or are we trying to wait for him to come around? This team should have an 8 game or more lead in the division but they consistently play guys that aren't the best at their position. 

[Schmoeman5]

I have no idea what the Twins will do. I know that Kepler has some value but I doubt any of the other 29 GMs are going to give up a whole lot for him. I don't think he was ever a clubhouse leader. He has a prima donna aspect about him. And as far as squinting goes. Yeah I noticed that,  but he's not going up to the plate with visual issues. That's downright dangerous. He's had multiple strains but they've came on the basepaths as he's tried legging out hits or beating out doubleplay grounders. His reputation as a gold glove outfielder is just that this year. Reputation of past play. He doesn't go nearly as hard on gappers. I see him running or rather tip toeing as if he's playing NOT to get hurt. He's got to either take a seat and stay as a backup only. Or wish him well and thank him for his time. 3 years on a downward spiral does not constitute a SSS

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I have a question. With the current state of the Twins, Buxton as DH, MAT in CF. Would the Twins be better if Kepler played CF vs RHP. with Wallner Larnach Gallo Castro Kirilloff manning the corner OF positions MAT vs LHP.  And Kepler and Taylor  as defensive replacements/ pinch hitters when not starting. If Kepler resists then he's gone.

This is what I would have been doing a long time ago. Kepler doesn't need to start against RHP but he should start in CF against a bunch of them. And as teams try to bring in righties to pitch to MAT in late innings, Kepler should be on the bench to pinch hit (and vice versa).

That's a pretty useful tandem in center.

[Schmoeman5]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is what I would have been doing a long time ago. Kepler doesn't need to start against RHP but he should start in CF against a bunch of them. And as teams try to bring in righties to pitch to MAT in late innings, Kepler should be on the bench to pinch hit (and vice versa).

That's a pretty useful tandem in center.

I only mentioned that. Because I thought that was really his only viable option.  But someone pointed out that Taylor's #s were actually higher than Keplers vs RH splits. But it would still be an option I agree. I know that Larnach left Buffalo and went to Tampa. So a roster move is coming. 

[PseudoSABR]

Kick him to the curb.  He can go hang out with Madison Bumgarner whatever the heck he's up to.

[Schmoeman5]

1 minute ago, PseudoSABR said:

Kick him to the curb.  He can go hang out with Madison Bumgarner what the heck he's up to.

Where is Madison? No one took a flyer on him?

[CRF]

13 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I only mentioned that. Because I thought that was really his only viable option.  But someone pointed out that Taylor's #s were actually higher than Keplers vs RH splits. But it would still be an option I agree. I know that Larnach left Buffalo and went to Tampa. So a roster move is coming. 

Wouldn't be surprised if the potential roster move, was Garlick going back down. 

[PseudoSABR]

Hmm....related?

 

[Fornasiere-ite]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Awful take. We have no way to know. Besides, most people don't love their job, that's a myth. 

Awful take. "Most people don't love their job" doesn't apply to baseball. It's very hard to play this game at the highest level, over 162 games, day in and day out. And, unlike OUR boring jobs that require us to follow TwinsDaily religiously for a break, baseball is genuinely fun, and relatively easy to love. I don't have an opinion as to whether Max loves baseball or not, but I think it is necessary to love the sport to have a long successful career in the MLB. 

[Schmoeman5]

47 minutes ago, CRF said:

Wouldn't be surprised if the potential roster move, was Garlick going back down. 

I would tend to agree with you, but last week when questioned why Garlick over a hot hitting Wallner who had just been sent down when Kepler came back and Garlick was recalled when Gallo went down Rocco said the reason for Garlick was because they were going to face several lefties going forward. So far the Twins have faced 1 but Garlick got several starts vs righthanders because of a short bench. 

[Squirrel]

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

I would tend to agree with you, but last week when questioned why Garlick over a hot hitting Wallner who had just been sent down when Kepler came back and Garlick was recalled when Gallo went down Rocco said the reason for Garlick was because they were going to face several lefties going forward. So far the Twins have faced 1 but Garlick got several starts vs righthanders because of a short bench. 

I think the reason it was Garlick over Wallner was that the Larnach activation was imminent and they didn't want to burn another recall for Wallner for a couple of days because there is a limit on that per season. Anyway ... back to Kepler ... you can continue talking Larnach/Wallner, etc in the Roster Crunch thread

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Where is Madison? No one took a flyer on him?

Right here 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I tend not to try to dig into why a player does what they do. Kepler taking himself out of games and going on the IL is fine, really, and more players should probably do it.

But there's also something to be said for a player like Buxton, who could show up to TF in a wheelchair and tell Rocco he has a first base mitt ready for the game. And Buxton gets trashed on the regular.

Undoubtedly a guy's availability can be endearing. I appreciate it when players are playing 140+ games, especially when they're as talented as someone like Buxton, but if you're going to roll out of the wheelchair and OPS .650 for the last month, eh, it reaches a point of being counterproductive.

It was weird listening to those two kinda dance around being critical of Kepler's IL stints, particularly because they've been staunch defenders of other players missing time. It felt like dirty laundry being aired after a player leaves, but in this case Kepler hasn't even hit the exit ramp. 

[umterp23]

So let's say Kepler is a leader in the clubhouse, what does that truly mean?  If Kepler has snubbed his nose about playing CF for the betterment of the team, no idea or not, is that truly a leader? I would say not.  Maybe his leadership is I don't strike out as much as everyone else and don' hit the ball to the opposite field well type of leadership.

He is at best a utility player for this team, not an everyday starter and on any MLB team that playoff contenders, he wouldn't be on those teams with this stat line:

Avg: .189. OBP: .261. SLG: .370 and OPS: .631

Do we need this as everyday RF?  I don't think so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It was weird listening to those two kinda dance around being critical of Kepler's IL stints, particularly because they've been staunch defenders of other players missing time. It felt like dirty laundry being aired after a player leaves, but in this case Kepler hasn't even hit the exit ramp. 

I think it's just boiling frustration. Kepler does not give off "good vibes" as a player. He goes on the IL constantly, then doesn't rehab. His performance is swirling down the drain. He doesn't play a position of need that better hides his offense, despite being capable of doing so.

All in all, it kinda combines to this:

[Trov]

At this point he has almost no value to Twins, and will have no trade value for anyone, unless they feel they can fix his issues. He still has value on defense, but his offense is a negative and hurting the team.  We have too many poor hitting players in our line up right now, we need some offense.  We cannot continue to give him at-bats. Since his last stint on IL he has 3 singles in 28 at bats, no walks, and 8 strike outs.  I still like his defense but he is an auto out right now and when we have too many guys that get out with no power our offense will struggle even more.  We have a guy that may not be great on defense, but his lighting up at the plate in AAA and was his last couple of games at MLB, why not bring him in now? 

[USAFChief]

If he can't help this anemic offense, why is a contender trading for him?

There's no trade market for Kepler. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

After doing more reading, I think I'm changing my mind as well.  I originally said to trade him for salary relief (and a bag of balls).  Upon further reflection, it might be just time to DFA him.  Gives him better potential opportunities and removes at least one boat anchor from the offense.  Defensively, if he's not going to play centerfield, it's not like we are replacing him with Sano.  I'm not sure that Max Kepler is going to get anything but a minor league contract in the off season. 

As to leadership, I think we automatically assign "leadership" chips to a veteran player who has been with the team a long time, but I just don't see it with Kep.  Unless he's dramatically different in the clubhouse than he is on the field, he doesn't seem to be providing much of that.  Correa in year two has more leadership points by a mile.  Twins veteran leadership = Polanco and Buxton, not Kepler.

[saviking]

So much for eliminating the shift and Kep's average going up 20 points theory. The Twins need to forget about the sunk cost and make a move. Even if they get nothing for him. The problem is that he's standing in the way of Wallner, who appears ready. Because of this, waiting for an official trade deadline in hopes of getting a little something doesn't make sense if he costs us 2 games in the win volume. The 2 wins could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

[Murph]

Max Kepler is not the problem.  Now that Sanó is gone, Max is the new scapegoat.  

The team hitting philosophy, if there is one (the long ball?) isn't working.  Something needs to change.

Also - the Twins continue to be poor talent evaluators.  "Falvine" hasn't brought a proven Position Player onto their roster that has been acquired thru the amateur draft.  We are still waiting for the fruit of their choices.

We finally have an excellent rotation, but the worst batting average and most strikeouts in Baseball.  

Finally - there is no passion.  "Attitude reflects leadership." 

 

[Linus]

Here is a different angle that results in the same answer. This lineup needs a jolt. If you are going to make a change to provide said jolt who are you going to change?  Max is it

[Jeff K]

On 6/5/2023 at 4:31 PM, stringer bell said:

Max Kepler has been a topic of discussion for much of this season. After two subpar years, many on this board were ready to cut bait for the second-longest tenured Twin before the season started. His performance since the start of the season has only increased the scrutiny on him, his spot on the roster and in the batting order. 

Kepler started the seaon in the deep freeze and after he got his first two hits of the season, he went on the IL. Coming back from the Injured List, he started to hit acceptably but had another trip to the IL and this time he has struggled mightily. Max's overall numbers in 140 PAs include a .640 OPS and 77 OPS+. For a right fielder, those numbers are unacceptable. He has accumulated only .1 WAR, because of his still very good defense.

It is up to the Twins' front office to decide if they want to part company with Kepler. At this point, betting on better performance from either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner should be a worthy gamble, and really not much of a risk. Max's batting average has decreased every year since 2019 (26 y.o. year) as has his OPS and OPS+. There just doesn't look to be any upside.

The options for parting company include a DFA and a trade. Looking at a trade, which might give some value for a player who once was valuable, one needs to look at who might be interested and what those interested would be willing to give in return. There are other teams that haven't had great production from their corner outfielders, including some that figure to contend. I would assume most of those teams are not looking for a veteran, but will try players from their own system and what they are willing to give for Kepler would be minimal unless the Twins take on Max's salary ($8.5M), I can't imagine any non-contender would be interested. 

A DFA would mean the approximately $5M owed Kepler (+ $1M buyout) would be lost. I doubt the Twins want to do that right now, particularly given the injury history of many players who would figure to replace Kepler. 

In my opinion, the thing to do as this time is to recall a replacement for Kepler and carry him as a backup outfielder. This plan isn't as simple as all that. Kepler won't be happy with a demotion and there currently isn't room on the active roster for him. Max is the second most senior player on the team and is a well-regarded professional. What to do with Max Kepler?

$5M is not that bad even for the Twins.  Why waste a roster spot on him?  I can't see any team wanting him unless they are so deep they can carry a 5th outfielder for defensive purposes.  Launch/DFA!

[Althebum82]

Hmmm, looks like Rocco is helping to reinforce the scapegoat narrative (for the record, I believe that Kepler trying to take second could potentially cause a very stupid outcome so I have a hard time agreeing Rocco on this)  :Twins’ Rocco Baldelli calls out Max Kepler for baserunning blunder after loss to Rays (msn.com)

[davidborton]

On 6/6/2023 at 2:42 PM, Schmoeman5 said:

Where is Madison? No one took a flyer on him?

He is riding his horses in Arizona and counting the $35+MM that the Snakes still owe him thru 2024.

Send Max out to join him where he can count his $7MM that the Twins owe him thru this year and buyout. 

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, Althebum82 said:

Hmmm, looks like Rocco is helping to reinforce the scapegoat narrative (for the record, I believe that Kepler trying to take second could potentially cause a very stupid outcome so I have a hard time agreeing Rocco on this)  :Twins’ Rocco Baldelli calls out Max Kepler for baserunning blunder after loss to Rays (msn.com)

I wondered why Kepler didn't go when Taylor stole third. The worst possible outcome after Taylor's SB would have been a GDP. I find that much more likely than any negative happening after having runners on second and third.

I also thought Kepler could have made third on Lewis' hit into the corner. Despite his decent speed, Max might personify cautious station-to-station base running.

[Riverbrian]

49 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I wondered why Kepler didn't go when Taylor stole third. The worst possible outcome after Taylor's SB would have been a GDP. I find that much more likely than any negative happening after having runners on second and third.

I also thought Kepler could have made third on Lewis' hit into the corner. Despite his decent speed, Max might personify cautious station-to-station base running.

I originally didn't have a problem with Kepler not being on second... IF... he wasn't aware that Taylor was attempting to swipe third. 

However... Rocco would know all the details necessary to make this determination so if Rocco says he should have been on second... I'll believe him.

OK... Kepler should have been on 2nd. It was a key moment in the game. 

OK... Rocco... you've stated publicly that Kepler wasn't "on the ball" on that play. 

Kepler is also hitting .192/.267/.369. You have started him 34 games out of 63 games this year.

He has missed 25 games while on the disabled list which means you have started him 34 times out of a possible 38 games that he was available to play. He has played in 36 out of a possible 38 games. 

That's this year... we can also factor in the past two years in your considerations. 

So... OK... Rocco (And the Front Office)... what are you going to do about it?  

If the answer is he sits tonight against a left hander and plays tomorrow night against a right hander. I'm not comfortable with that.  

[John Belinski]

On 6/6/2023 at 9:24 AM, wabene said:

A leader would recognize that Wallner was super hot and helping the team and ask for a rehab assignment to get his bat tuned in to actually help the team when he did return. 

A leader would recognize that his bat is not playing in the corners and volunteer for a strong side center field platoon role and the bottom of the lineup.

A leader wouldn't first lament that maybe he chose the wrong sport (futbol) then continue to futilely, and listlessly plod forward in the same unsuccessful manner collecting large paychecks along the way. 

I'm sorry I always liked Max. My question, do you think Max Kepler LOVES baseball? Because to be successful in this difficult sport, that is the prerequisite. 

Rocco who is the leader or is supposed to be the leader decided to send Wallner down even after Wallner was on base 8 times in a row.  If the Twins really had a leader as manager they would not have a losing record.