Underperforming Clubs Could Offer Intriguing Trade Chips

[Nash Walker]

Even in May, it’s exhilarating to take stock of who may be available at the deadline. Everyone knows the Nationals, Athletics, Royals, Rockies and others will be selling, but what about the supposed contenders? Who could become available if trends continue?

Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The Big Bat: Blue Jays’ 3B Matt Chapman
Toronto enters play Tuesday in last place in a surging American League East. The Blue Jays, with a $213 million payroll, are undeniably all-in on competing. The results so far are middling. The lineup isn’t producing to its talent level, the rotation is near the middle of the pack in fWAR, and the bullpen is about league average. FanGraphs places Toronto’s playoff odds at 48.7% with 48 games in the books. 

If the Blue Jays opt to trade off or take a dual buyer and seller approach at the deadline, Matt Chapman emerges as a clear candidate. Chapman is an impending free agent and leads the Jays in OPS (.887) and wRC+ (146). The premium defensive third baseman had an all-world April, slashing .384/.465/.687 with 20 extra-base hits. He’s off to a slow start in May with just 15 hits in 78 at-bats. 

Chapman ranks fourth among third baseman in Defensive Runs Saved (21) since 2020. He’s a three time Gold Glove winner and would fill an important hole for the Twins. Chapman’s addition would push both Royce Lewis and Kyle Farmer to valuable utility roles, giving Rocco Baldelli attractive options at multiple positions. 

The Ace: Brewers’ RHP Corbin Burnes
Milwaukee is tied for the division lead in the adjacent NL central with a 25-22 record. Much like the Twins, the Brewers are a flawed team with a pedestrian offense and reasonable questions about their outlook as a contender. The Crew has lost 13 of their last 20 while the Cardinals hunt them down in the standings. 

2021 Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes has been part of the issue, sporting an unordinary 3.97 ERA and 21.5% strikeout rate. Burnes’ previously outstanding cutter is getting hit harder at a lesser velocity. Even with his early season struggles, Burnes owns a 2.78 ERA and 2.68 FIP in nearly 500 innings since 2020. Unless you think he’s suddenly a pumpkin at 28 years old, Burnes still holds ace-level status. 

On one hand, the Twins already have a strong rotation and maybe shouldn’t part with significant resources for another frontline starter. On the other, if they view the trade market as thin on bats, they could double down on the rotation. Burnes is also under contract for 2024 and would be a clean replacement for free agent Sonny Gray. 

The Firebreathing Reliever: Padres’ LHP Josh Hader
The Padres have yet to meet their sky-high 2023 expectations. After a run to the NLCS last October, San Diego continued to invest with a monster deal for Xander Bogaerts and an extension for Manny Machado. They parted with significant prospects last trade deadline for Juan Soto and Josh Hader, furthering their commitment to winning now. As of Tuesday, they are effectively 55-45 to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs. 

Josh Hader is one of just a few Padres performing at a high level. Hader owns a minuscule 0.95 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 19 innings. He’s one of the best relievers of this generation, pairing an upper-90s fastball with a disgusting slider. Hader has yet to allow a hit to a left-handed hitter (0-for-14, 9 strikeouts). 

Hader is an impending free agent and would be a prime trade candidate should San Diego look to cash in. The Twins lack another consistent left-handed reliever to pair with Caleb Thielbar and well, Hader is the best in baseball. A late-inning trio of Hader, Jhoan Duran, and Jorge López could overwhelm opponents. 

What do you think of these candidates? Can you think of others? Comment below!

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[mickster]

I don't think Chapman would be worth the price we would have to pay for a rental.    Burnes is intriguing with the additional year of control.  I hold out hope that Sony Gray signs back as well.    Burnes might cost us Miranda/Martin.   Hader is a luxury and won't come cheap.   But would be a solid addition.   Maybe SD tries to dump some salary if they are still below expectations later in the season, but I am guessing this would be an expensive rental as well..

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Wouldn't the Twins fit the definition of an "underperforming club" which is also willing to sell?

[TwinsDr2021]

I don't think the Twins have the assets to pull any of these off, unless of course you are talking Lewis,Lee, Miranda

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I wonder who the Twins deem "untouchable" in the organization?  Is Miranda truly untouchable?  Lee?  Lewis? With the excess of upper tier middle infield prospects in the organization, would they be more willing to move some of these pieces?

A move for any of the three mentioned would need to have an implied contract extension worked out.  This current regime does not gut the farm for rentals, nor should they.  The Burnes possibility would need to be discussed in the context of Sonny Gray re-signing with the Twins next year.

 

[OvertheHill]

As good as he is, I wouldn't want to see us part with any of our young assets to get Hader. We're not just simply a "Hader" away from being a top notch contender this year IMO.

[Beast]

Hader is a realistic target, IMO, who would have a huge impact.

Our bullpen stinks.  I don’t know why anybody still thinks Jorge Lopez is good.  Is it the same formula that’s telling people Pagan is good?  

He’s had one good half of baseball in his entire career.  The results since he’s gotten here haven’t been good, and the metrics don’t support anything (ERA and FIP are both in the neighborhood if 4.00+).  I don’t care about his spin rate, etc.  He can’t get hitters out.

People are constantly ripping on the offense, but they haven’t been as bad as people think.  This big issue right now is the ineptitude in holding a tight lead late in the game.

[Jocko87]

This feels like a 12 yo first draft Christmas list.  None of these players are on the shopping lists and none of these teams are selling.  I'm not sure why we would start shopping here when the Chapman from the Royals costs 11 cents. 

[KirbyDome89]

"Toronto enters play Tuesday in last place in a surging American League East." Yeah, at 26-23 and only 2.5 games back of a WC spot. Why would they even remotely entertain the idea of trading their starting 3B?

Also, the Brewers are contemplating moving 1.5 years of Burnes because we're not sure they're WS bound? Like what?

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

"Toronto enters play Tuesday in last place in a surging American League East." Yeah, at 26-23 and only 2.5 games back of a WC spot. Why would they even remotely entertain the idea of trading their starting 3B?

Also, the Brewers are contemplating moving 1.5 years of Burnes because we're not sure they're WS bound? Like what?

To be fair there's been Burnes rumblings since his arbitration hearing when he came out and said his relationship with the team was hurt. I don't think that means he's definitely on the block or anything, but I don't think anyone around baseball would be surprised to see him moved. Especially since I don't think anyone expects Milwaukee to extend him and they'd likely enjoy the haul he'd bring in prospects. I don't see the Twins paying that price, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved this year, or next offseason.

[mikelink45]

No - we have a lot of prospects for 3B and Farmer is adequate until they are here.  Burnes is great, but too expensive.  We have a current rotation that looks very good and I would not trade any of them.  Hader would be great, but is he ready to flame out like so many RP do?  Develop our own!  

[KirbyDome89]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair there's been Burnes rumblings since his arbitration hearing when he came out and said his relationship with the team was hurt. I don't think that means he's definitely on the block or anything, but I don't think anyone around baseball would be surprised to see him moved. Especially since I don't think anyone expects Milwaukee to extend him and they'd likely enjoy the haul he'd bring in prospects. I don't see the Twins paying that price, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved this year, or next offseason.

Yeah I remember him being pissed about the arbitration process, and I also doubt he's extended, but at the moment Milwaukee is sitting in 1st place in a pretty meh division. I'd be surprised if (at minimum) a WC berth was out of their reach by the trade deadline. The optics of moving your best arm for prospects while in contention, especially after a poor deadline last year, would be horrible. 

[umterp23]

I would part ways with Miranda in a heartbeat.  His defense is offensive and his offense is just as offensive.  He doesn't have a home defensively and with Buxton being full time DH, where does he fit long term.  Not sure he does.  Miranda, Kepler and Lopez for Hader?  not sure it is enticing enough.  Throw in Wood-Richardson as well.

 

[terrydactyls]

12 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

I would part ways with Miranda in a heartbeat.  His defense is offensive and his offense is just as offensive.  He doesn't have a home defensively and with Buxton being full time DH, where does he fit long term.  Not sure he does.  Miranda, Kepler and Lopez for Hader?  not sure it is enticing enough.  Throw in Wood-Richardson as well.

 

If I were San Diego, I wouldn't trade Hader for all four of those guys.

[Jocko87]

14 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

If I were San Diego, I wouldn't trade Hader for all four of those guys.

I mean, for all 4 they would almost have too. Like in under a second. 

Maybe this thread is the hyperbole trap?  Very sneaky! 

[DJL44]

The players they are looking at should be pure rentals. Go get two expensive relievers who are about to be free agents. Someone like Buck Farmer from the Reds would be a good addition.

[terrydactyls]

27 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I mean, for all 4 they would almost have too. Like in under a second. 

Maybe this thread is the hyperbole trap?  Very sneaky! 

Padres have Manny Machado at 3B.  Where does Miranda go?  DH?  They have Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz.  Is Miranda any better?   They have Fernando Tatis in RF.  I'm pretty sure he's better than Kepler.  Lopez replace Hader?  Not a chance!  And Woods-Richardson is not going to return Josh Hader.

[GNess]

Chapman from the Royals?

[I wish the twins were good]

7 hours ago, mickster said:

I don't think Chapman would be worth the price we would have to pay for a rental.    Burnes is intriguing with the additional year of control.  I hold out hope that Sony Gray signs back as well.    Burnes might cost us Miranda/Martin.   Hader is a luxury and won't come cheap.   But would be a solid addition.   Maybe SD tries to dump some salary if they are still below expectations later in the season, but I am guessing this would be an expensive rental as well..

Miranda and/or Martin are not going to get Burnes. Try Lewis/Lee for starters. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Padres have Manny Machado at 3B.  Where does Miranda go?  DH?  They have Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz.  Is Miranda any better?   They have Fernando Tatis in RF.  I'm pretty sure he's better than Kepler.  Lopez replace Hader?  Not a chance!  And Woods-Richardson is not going to return Josh Hader.

I don’t even think they would get uniforms. It doesn’t matter, flip em again.  Every team in the league takes a horrible lopsided deal like that.  4 legit controlled players for a reliever rental? 

Everyone should take the front office criticisms with a grain of whatever this is. This isn’t fantasy baseball. 

[Rosterman]

The Twins have to also identify tradable assets. The Big Three of Mahle, Maeda and Gray are all avaiulable. Except Mahle is out for the season (do the Twins resign in the least). Maeda needs to come back, but might only get a low end prospect. The Twins need to decide if they flip Gray for some prospects, make a qualifying offer and get a draft choice, whatever.

Yes, I would trade for another high end starter. But what would another team take in place.

Polancho has two more seasons of option conrol. You can get Kepler for the promise of a resign for $10m (or just watch the Twins cut ties). At best Gallo would get you maybe a couple of low end prospects to restoick whatever you trade away.

Woods Richardson, Winder, Balazovic are all possibilities in a trade. I would keep Enlow about any of those aforementioned three. But they aren't having great seasons. People will want Martin, Lewis or Lee for sure. And the Twins would rather offer Miranda, Salas, Sabato or Severino - all who will need to be on the 40-man in the offseason. Beyond that, what do the Twins offer from the lower minors? No one really stands out as "in demand" - so the Twins might again be dealing alrgely from their2022 draft class (Prielipp could be one) who are showing some promise.

What do they seek at the trade deadline, or from a non-competitive team right now. Sure, a top-line starter with 2+ years left of service for your team. What is it worth to grab an experienced bulpen arm or two who you might still be able to keep anotehr year.

What do the Twins need for offense. Is Chapm,an worth the payout for one season? Pushing Farmer, Lewis (and Miranda) elsewhere for now - not to mention Julien. Do the Twins jsut scrap the whole future of Larnach and whatever and get someone who is a more proven hiter, while jettisoning themselves of Kepler and, perhaps, Gallo. Can Buxton play the outfield? That would be such a big help on who the Twins can then shuffle thru the DH spot now.

I looked at an outsider's look at the Twins Top Prospects 0f 2022. Amazed at where they stand these days (and how many of the 50 are no more with the organization). https://www.prospects1500.com/al-central/twins/2022-minnesota-twins-top-50-prospects/#:~:text=Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects (2022) 1 1.,Canterino%2C RHP %2C 24%2C High-A ... More items

 

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If I were San Diego, I wouldn't trade Hader for all four of those guys.

[CRF]

I believe it's much more likely, that we're going to be in a position to be "sellers" rather than "buyers". In any event, I doubt we'd be making a move for any of those players mentioned in the article. 

[Blyleven2011]

Way to early to speculate who goes where , and in today's game if the twins are going to fail , I would want them to fail with their own drafted prospects  ,,, 

We used to build a good team with our own in house players  , now not so much ....

This isn't working out the way FO had planned im sure  ...

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We used to build a good team with our own in house players\

With dry spells up to a decade long when the prospects didn't pan out

[Otaknam]

An absurd idea to acquire Chapman and force Lewis to a a utility role. That’s what got Lewis injured last year, playing out of position. Lewis is ready so let’s see what he can do as a regular at third. Hader in the bullpen would be something to consider, however, if the price is right. 

[Otaknam]

Corbin Burnes at the right price would be worth considering since he is under contract through 2024. Then they could let Sonny Gray leave as a free agent, since he is older and been injury prone. But the FO has already traded a lot of prospects with mInimal return, and they have to hold onto Brooks Lee. So I don’t know what it would take.

[Trov]

I am a no on Burns, unless you give up little to get him.  I know some on here think he is an ace, but he is not trending as an ace, but a guy that is living off his crazy good 2021 season, and pretty good 2020 season.  2022 start out similar to 2021, but trended downward.  I am not saying he is a bust, he still has some very good starts, but I do not see him repeating 2021 ever again, and he is more likely what he has shown the last year of games.  A guy that is more like a middle of road starter, not a top ace.  

His numbers so far this year, pretty much line up with his numbers the second half last year.  Second half last year, he had 3.94 ERA, k/9 down, HR per at bat up, it got even worse in August and beyond.  So far first 2 months this year, his k/9 down even more, and walks up.  HR rate is up too.  In 2021 he gave up a total of 7 HR the whole season, last year he gave up 23, this year so far 9. 

Can people stop acting like the 2021 season is his norm, and not the outlier? Yes, he will give you a good start here or there, but over last year and half, we have a few pitchers that have been better. 

Again, if we can get him for a middle of road prospect, sure, but no top guys for him.   

[Trov]

Just now, Otaknam said:

Corbin Burnes at the right price would be worth considering since he is under contract through 2024. Then they could let Sonny Gray leave as a free agent, since he is older and been injury prone. But the FO has already traded a lot of prospects with mInimal return, and they have to hold onto Brooks Lee. So I don’t know what it would take.

If it takes any of our top 10 prospects I am a no on Burns.  He is not worth a top prospect hoping he can duplicate his outlier season.  Joe Ryan has pitched better last season in half.  Baily Ober has pitched better.  Lopez has pitched better.  Gray has pitched better.  Varland is only one that has pitched worse, and it is not by much.  We should not give up a top prospect for a guy that may not even slot as a guy to get a playoff start at this point. If he was on our roster, only reason he gets a start in playoffs is hope he has one of his good starts, which happens like 1 out of 4.  In 10 starts this year he has 1 great, 2 good, 4 ehh, and 3 terrible. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'm not sure that these are the right players to trade for (they might be, but I'd like a little more time for this to sort out) at this point.  No matter what trades are in the works, the Twins are going to need to part ways with some middle infield talent in the next couple of years.  This is a good thing, not a bad thing.

Young Infielders mostly with the Twins

Kiriloff, Miranda

Important Young Infielders in the MInors

Julian, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Salas, and ??? assuming no one flames out

Certainly some of these guys could (and maybe should) move to the outfield, but at the moment you have at least seven guys for three positions, because Correa is going to be at SS and this assumes that Polanco leaves as well.  Maybe one (Julien? Miranda?) becomes a full-time DH, assuming that Buxton goes back to CF.  That makes certainly one or two expendable in the right trade.  Much as the Mahle trade hasn't worked out, this is why Steer and Encarnacion-Strand were expendable last year and why it's not really a crisis for the Twins.  It's also why the Twins could be in a pretty good position to make some offers this summer as well. For the right trade, anybody is available.