Does the Twins Front Office Have Difficulty Admitting When They Are Wrong?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins front office made an intriguing decision this winter to keep Emilio Pagan on the roster. Is he the latest in a line of players that this front office can't quit?

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Every team's front office makes hundreds of decisions each season. Some turn out better than others, while some make fans shake their heads. On last Friday's episode of Gleeman and the Geek, Aaron and John discussed the possibility that the Twins' front office has difficulty admitting when they are wrong about a player. Teams can't let a player go after one poor performance, but there can be a point where the process and results aren't aligned with the organization's best interests. 

Emilio Pagan might be the epitome of the team being wrong about a player, especially since the Twins didn't need to offer him arbitration this winter. In his first season with the Twins, he posted a 4.43 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP, but the numbers don't tell the whole story of what he has cost the team. His -1.26 WPA is the lowest among Twins relievers over the last two seasons, which ranks him down with Jharel Cotton and Trevor Megill. Among AL relievers, he has the fifth-worst WPA since the start of the 2022 season. 

The Twins trusted the process with Pagan and believed his stuff would provide value during the 2023 season. Pagan's metrics point to him being above average, but he tends to leave pitches over the plate at the most inopportune times. Even great relievers have bad stretches, but Pagan has never been a great reliever, so the front office will have to decide soon on whether or not he stays on the roster. 

Joe Smith, a 38-year-old at the time, was the Twins long free agent relief signing entering the 2022 season. He started the season well with a 1.59 ERA and 0.694 WPA in his first 21 appearances. Unfortunately, things went south from there, and he allowed 11 earned runs over his final 13 appearances while being worth -0.217 WPA. The Twins released him in early August, and he has yet to appear in another professional game. The Twins realized they had made a mistake and moved on when he started to struggle. 

Another example of the team admitting they were wrong was trading away Josh Donaldson with multiple years remaining on his contract. Minnesota signed Donaldson with the hope he could push an emerging team over the top and help the organization to more playoff success. Injuries and poor performance marred his time with the Twins. Thankfully, the front office found a trade partner, and Donaldson has been worth 2.2 WAR over the last two seasons in New York. It was a move where the Twins had to admit they were wrong, but it gave the team financial flexibility to make moves over the last two seasons. 

In 2021, the Twins signed a group of veteran free agents that struggled to perform. Alex Colome had a disastrous first month of the season and almost single-handedly put the Twins out of contention. He improved in the second half, so the team kept him on the roster for the whole season. The team signed Andrelton Simmons as a shortstop stopgap, but he posted a 57 OPS+ in over 130 games. Both players cost the Twins wins during the season, and the team could have gone in a different direction. 

The front office also targeted J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker entering the 2021 season with some disastrous results.  Shoemaker made 16 appearances and posted an 8.06 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP. Minnesota sent him to Triple-A to attempt improvements, but the team eventually admitted they were wrong and released him in early August. Happ's performance was only slightly better with a 6.77 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 19 starts. The Twins traded Happ to the Cardinals at the trade deadline for Evan Sisk and John Gant. His numbers improved after the trade, but it was his last taste of the big leagues as he retired in May 2022. 

There have been countless other examples of players the Twins have kept despite declining performance while also moving on from some players mentioned above. Front offices have to be patient when making decisions because every player will struggle at some point during a 162-game season. Sometimes the process and results don't match, and that's when the team needs to say sayonara to players hurting the team's chances to win. 

Do you think the Twins' front office has difficulty admitting when they are wrong? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

I agree completely.  I think that we have seen them fall in love with the players that they acquire - wanting them to prove their genius.  

I look at the Twins players that were acquired year by year and until Gray and Ryan and Duran came along it is a head shaker.  I have to include Maeda in the positive column too although his health means we only had the shortened year of Covid where he truly shined.  Below is our acquisition list without the four in this paragraph

• 2018 
  • Lance Lynn - 31 games
  • Addison Read - 4,50 era in BP - 55 games
• 2019
  • Martin Perez - 28 games, 5.12 era (and now he shines in Texas
• 2020
  • Sergio Romo - 24 games, 4.05 era
  • Homer Bailey - 2 games
• 2021
  • Alex Colome - 67 games 4.15 era
  • Hansel Robles - 45 games 4.91 era
  • J Happ - 19 starts, 6.77 era
  • Matt Shoemaker - 11 starts, 8.06 era
• 2022
  • Dylan Bundy - 29 starts, 4.89
  • Chris Archer - 25 ga,es 4.56 era
  • Emilio Pagan - 59 games 4.43 era
  • Chris Paddack - 5 games 4.03 era - enjoying a well paid recovery time
  • Tyler Mahle - 4 games 4.41 era - also enjoying a well paid recovery time

[TwinsDr2021]

To me this is more than Pagen, it is the mid 20 and older pitchers on the 40 that are injured, aren't good or they don't trust. SWR, Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Headrick, Canterino, Balazovic, Alcala. With little to no other top prospects on the horizon. Prielipp (4 innings in A+), Raya (14 innings A+), Festa (5.58 ERA AA)

So the Twins cut him, who do we get more of? the list above? Another 30 year has been or never was?

The thing this FO needs to admit is that can't identify or groom top end talent, they are great at identifying role players and middle relief pitchers.

 

[MABB1959]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

To me this is more than Pagen, it is the mid 20 and older pitchers on the 40 that are injured, aren't good or they don't trust. SWR, Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Headrick, Canterino, Balazovic, Alcala. With little to no other top prospects on the horizon. Prielipp (4 innings in A+), Raya (14 innings A+), Festa (5.58 ERA AA)

So the Twins cut him, who do we get more of? the list above? Another 30 year has been or never was?

The thing this FO needs to admit is that can't identify or groom top end talent, they are great at identifying role players and middle relief pitchers.

 

No baseball expert here but I think they leave pitchers at AAA too long and by the time they get here are prone to injury.

[4twinsJA]

Should have moved on from Pagan in offseason, would have been better for Twins and Pagan. My take on the Twins is they don't like to release players they owe money. With Pagan signed for the year, doubt if released until late in year or a late year trip to IL and never return.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

No baseball expert here but I think they leave pitchers at AAA too long and by the time they get here are prone to injury.

What is the supposed connection between being in AAA too long and becoming injury prone?

[KBJ1]

Pagan is the Ron Davis of the 2020's.

The team has no faith in him and with Theilbar out and Jax now struggling, the bullpen is in serious trouble. I don't know if Chapman would be the answer, but they need someone reliable.

Poor fielding & an atrocious strikeout rate only make matters worse and need to be fixed or this team is going nowhere.

[Johnny Ringo]

I have to admit a certain fondness for the show The Big Bang Theory. In a particularly funny episode, Sheldon compels his new gal pal (Amy) to watch Raiders of the Lost Ark, which is his favorite movie.  She studiously watches it and says that she enjoyed it. But then she points out that the outcome for the Ark would have been exactly the same if Indiana Jones had never shown up in the first place. Sheldon in incensed. He objects, stammers, thinks about it, stammers and then goes silent. Amy!!!

The FO has become my Indiana Jones. They flail around a lot and make tons of noise but I not sure they are adding any value. For every good decision they make (Cruz for Ryan, trading Donaldson), they make an equally dumb one (Pagan, acquiring Donaldson in the first place).  I wonder if they are afraid of snakes too?

Ps. I have been up north the past few days and had access only to the SF games through the MLB radio app. I switched off Dan Gasbag  and listened instead to Jon Miller of the Giants. That is roughly the equivalent of asking my wife if she would rather hear me or Pavarotti singing in the shower.       

[Whitey333]

This is the strangest FO the organ I zation has had in many years.  Strange signings, strange trades, not much roster stability.  Way too much turnover.

[Woof Bronzer]

Someone in the local media should ask Falvey about this.  Haven't heard much from Falvey lately though - I wonder why.

[GopherJeff]

Lack of talent, sketchy conditioning and poor coaching have plagued the Twins for a while now. If it wasn't for the quality starts by Ryan, Gray and Lopez, this team would be in the middle of the pack of the AL Central - the worst division in MLB. 

Injuries happen. Just about every player and pitcher goes through slumps. And sometimes a lineup or pitching change blows up. When it seems to be a pattern, fans get frustrated and start assigning blame. 

Yes, the Twins are at the top of their division now. They were through most of last season too, when bad play and decisions - and injuries - killed any hopes of post-season play.

To be accountable, the decision makers need to show the fans that they know how to field a competitive team, that coming close isn't good enough. 

[LastOnePicked]

I can't shake the feeling that this FO thinks they're smarter than their results would indicate. They gather a lot of data, but they don't seem to read it well. Or, they are just fundamentally, chronically unlucky. Either way, I'd prefer that they weren't calling the shots.

But to answer your question, keeping Pagan is absolutely about justifying the Padres trade. It's hubris. It seemed ridiculous to keep him over the offseason, and it seems disastrous now. Baseball is very much about momentum - look what has happened to the team since his implosion in LA. The grim spectre of 2022 hangs heavy on the team now, and this was entirely predictable.

[chpettit19]

It's a tough line to know where to draw on "giving up" on a guy. There are a lot of variables that go into it. Not the least of which is who'd replace that player. You can send Miranda down if you have Farmer to replace him. You have to watch Taylor struggle when your best replacement is Castro. I have no defense for Pagan. I haven't understood what they're doing with him for a year. They don't have a ton of great options to replace him, but relief pitchers are easily disposed of assets, especially when your desired role for a specific guy is low leverage only. 

Another factor that plays in, and fans have very little knowledge of, is "tweaks" or "adjustments" the FO, and coaching staff, believe will help a player. The work being done behind the scenes plays into the decisions being made on how long to keep someone. Does Duffey or Smith have enough left in their arm to make a tweak and get back to top form? Can you adjust something with Pagan to get his "stuff" to perform the way it "should?" Can you change Castro's swing slightly and he's back to his SSS 2020 self? We'll never be privy to the work happening behind the scenes so can't ever have the full picture view.

But there's no helping Pagan. Can we please just cut him?

[Mark G]

To answer the question in the top headline:  for this FO to "admit" anything, they would have to believe they actually owed anyone anything.  Like, oh, I don't know........the fans, maybe?  Seriously, does that sound like this FO?  🤭

[wsnydes]

Patience is typically required for player performance.  If you sign a guy and he struggles, whether you're tweaking something or not, you should give them time to try to work through it.  It's easier to cut a guy than replace them.  Nobody is going to be the same player for 162 games.  Nobody.  Obviously the greats are better and quicker at getting back to form, but that's what makes them great.  And if you're tweaking a guys motion or swing, it's not reasonable to just cut them loose before that player has a chance to get comfortable with the tweak.  

That said, there are definitely instances where this FO has held on too long.  They have have solid reasoning to do so, but we don't always know what that is.  Pagan is a clear instance of that.  Shoemaker and Happ are others, but I'm not sure I would go with a blanket statement that they're unwilling to admit mistakes in general.  

[Woof Bronzer]

11 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I can't shake the feeling that this FO thinks they're smarter than their results would indicate.

It's what happens with extreme analytics - process is more important than results. Look at their moves after the last 2 years.  After the 2021 debacle they extend Baldelli - results don't matter.  After the 2022 debacle they resign Pagan and fire the trainer - results don't matter, and anyways it was all the injuries' fault.  Oh and the fans' fault - never forget that the FO blamed the fans for last September's meltdown.

It's going to take the organization years to dig out of this mess.  

[Schmoeman5]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's a tough line to know where to draw on "giving up" on a guy. There are a lot of variables that go into it. Not the least of which is who'd replace that player. You can send Miranda down if you have Farmer to replace him. You have to watch Taylor struggle when your best replacement is Castro. I have no defense for Pagan. I haven't understood what they're doing with him for a year. They don't have a ton of great options to replace him, but relief pitchers are easily disposed of assets, especially when your desired role for a specific guy is low leverage only. 

Another factor that plays in, and fans have very little knowledge of, is "tweaks" or "adjustments" the FO, and coaching staff, believe will help a player. The work being done behind the scenes plays into the decisions being made on how long to keep someone. Does Duffey or Smith have enough left in their arm to make a tweak and get back to top form? Can you adjust something with Pagan to get his "stuff" to perform the way it "should?" Can you change Castro's swing slightly and he's back to his SSS 2020 self? We'll never be privy to the work happening behind the scenes so can't ever have the full picture view.

But there's no helping Pagan. Can we please just cut him?

I think we had this discussion a few months ago. I said then that the Twins would have a hard time cutting anyone that money was owed. Unlike the Yankees who cut loose a guy who they owe way more than the Twins owe Pagan. I'm not sure if it's a monetary thing either. More of an embarrassing thing because nobody likes to hear the phase "I told you so" I'm sure that behind the scenes the Twins are working with Pagan. His stuff isn't terrible.  You've seen it, as have I. I think it's a mental thing more than a physical thing. Low leverage, high leverage. Makes no difference. Cut him and wish him well. 

[Schmoeman5]

12 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

It's what happens with extreme analytics - process is more important than results. Look at their moves after the last 2 years.  After the 2021 debacle they extend Baldelli - results don't matter.  After the 2022 debacle they resign Pagan and fire the trainer - results don't matter, and anyways it was all the injuries' fault.  Oh and the fans' fault - never forget that the FO blamed the fans for last September's meltdown.

It's going to take the organization years to dig out of this mess.  

Is there an article where the FO blamed the fans for last year's meltdown? I'd love to read that

[Blyleven2011]

35 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Someone in the local media should ask Falvey about this.  Haven't heard much from Falvey lately though - I wonder why.

Falvey always shys away from media when twins are playing bad  , 2021 through 2023 ...

When they play bad he has no accountability  , when they play good he can't wait to get the spotlight  ...

Nobody  in this organization is accountable for anything  , players or management  ...

[farmerguychris]

1 hour ago, KBJ1 said:

Pagan is the Ron Davis of the 2020's.

The team has no faith in him and with Theilbar out and Jax now struggling, the bullpen is in serious trouble. I don't know if Chapman would be the answer, but they need someone reliable.

Poor fielding & an atrocious strikeout rate only make matters worse and need to be fixed or this team is going nowhere.

I disagree - The team DOES have faith in him.  Thats what most of us don't understand.  They shouldn't have faith in him, but by resigning him, and then as they keep sending him out.  Why could they possibly have faith in him to keep doing that is the question.

[Whitey333]

Between some Injuries (again) and stupid management, the Twins again have a B-C lineup in today.  Same old same old.

[MGM4706]

Poor results in the Pen acquisitions but why wait so long to do SOMETHING? Move Varland to the Pen. Bring up a couple kids. Do SOMETHING!! Night after night same thing. Great starts and then Pen comes in and can't throw strikes!! Insanity is doing the same thing over and over hoping for à better result! We should have a 8-10 game lead with these starters!!

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What is the supposed connection between being in AAA too long and becoming injury prone?

Wearing out their arms enough to require TJ surgery?

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I agree completely.  I think that we have seen them fall in love with the players that they acquire - wanting them to prove their genius.  

I look at the Twins players that were acquired year by year and until Gray and Ryan and Duran came along it is a head shaker.  I have to include Maeda in the positive column too although his health means we only had the shortened year of Covid where he truly shined.  Below is our acquisition list without the four in this paragraph

• 2018 
  • Lance Lynn - 31 games
  • Addison Read - 4,50 era in BP - 55 games
• 2019
  • Martin Perez - 28 games, 5.12 era (and now he shines in Texas
• 2020
  • Sergio Romo - 24 games, 4.05 era
  • Homer Bailey - 2 games
• 2021
  • Alex Colome - 67 games 4.15 era
  • Hansel Robles - 45 games 4.91 era
  • J Happ - 19 starts, 6.77 era
  • Matt Shoemaker - 11 starts, 8.06 era
• 2022
  • Dylan Bundy - 29 starts, 4.89
  • Chris Archer - 25 ga,es 4.56 era
  • Emilio Pagan - 59 games 4.43 era
  • Chris Paddack - 5 games 4.03 era - enjoying a well paid recovery time
  • Tyler Mahle - 4 games 4.41 era - also enjoying a well paid recovery time

This is a very valid list and I do also believe that the FO hates admitting a mistake and many times hold on to that player too long.  That said, it is possible that the reason they do this is because they do not want to release or trade a player only to regret it later on.  A prime example is LaMonte Wade Jr.

[saviking]

I'd just say due to budget restraints they they are big on reclamation projects signing them on the cheap and gibing them one year contracts. No teams want to swim in this pool but we don't have Yankee money. but those are low probability moves. Sometimes I wonder if we are better off giving those innings to young up and coming prospects from our system who are way less costly.

Where I get nervous is when we give a big long term contract to Donaldson where a mistake is magnified both in dollars and years. Which leads us to Correa ... I'm not going to say good or bad move. Simply if he doesn't return to his normal output and or his ankle goes could possibly be an albatross around our neck. I'm just brining this up from a risk factor perspective. What makes this move more risky is we may have had just as good an answer with either Lewis or Lee with a lot less financial outlay.

So to sum it up, the retreads are cheap and we can easily move on if they are wrong but the big dollar commitments are the ones I worry about ... 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Is there an article where the FO blamed the fans for last year's meltdown? I'd love to read that

https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/twins/after-disappointing-season-twins-president-disappointed-fans-are-disappointed?src=rss

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Woof Bronzer said:

https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/twins/after-disappointing-season-twins-president-disappointed-fans-are-disappointed?src=rss

Nitpic, but I don't think most people consider Dave St Peter to be the "front office." 

I mean, in normal business terms he absolutely is. But in baseball, most would consider Falvine to be "the front office."

But yeah, St Peter surely said what he said, and without looking I'd guess they're off to an even worse start with attendance so far this year.

 

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Wearing out their arms enough to require TJ surgery?

They pitch fewer innings in AAA than they'd be expected to in the majors. My confusion comes in on what the difference is in them pitching in AAA or MLB. The level they're at doesn't matter when it comes to being injury prone or not.

[John Mickelson]

Twins fan since inception, I am not a fan of Falvey. Ownership has to be accountable and hoping Young Pohlad is more so than Jim was. Way too many poor decisions, even original Correa signing fell into his lap. With many top SS prospects in our system, I did not like the resigning of Correa. I love Correa as a field general but not at that price. The Donaldson signing was terrible. Braves loved him but would not give him the extra year, only Falvey would. Hoping Encarcion-Strand does not turn into a superstar for Reds after last years trade for Mahle who has already pitched his last inning for Twins. Currently hitting .351 at AAA.  Spencer Steer is also starting for Reds this year at first and third. Paddock was damaged goods that other teams stayed away from at trade deadline and Pagan is our current lighting rod. Gray is a must resign so lets see if they screw that up. I think our entire dugout staff is sketchy. Hitters have no clue, Maki is in over his head and Rocco has now become Mr Platoon with no real feel for the game, just analytics.,  Every game it's pull another line-up out of his ........hat. Rant over. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

It's what happens with extreme analytics - process is more important than results. Look at their moves after the last 2 years.  After the 2021 debacle they extend Baldelli - results don't matter.  After the 2022 debacle they resign Pagan and fire the trainer - results don't matter, and anyways it was all the injuries' fault.  Oh and the fans' fault - never forget that the FO blamed the fans for last September's meltdown.

It's going to take the organization years to dig out of this mess.  

You wanted them to fire Rocco after 2021 because they had 1 down year? He'd had 2 seasons of 60+% winning percentage the 2 seasons before that. Firing him after 2021 would've been incredibly hasty. No idea why the tenured Pagan, that we definitely agree on. And the baseball ops (Falvey and Levine) didn't blame the fans. Don't lump them in with St Peter's nonsense comments.