Alex Kirilloff and Embracing the Unknown

[Greggory Masterson]

The long-awaited return of Alex Kirilloff is nearly upon us - but it also may be further away than we hope. We don’t have all the information. It’s something we have to deal with.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

“We need guidance; we’ve been misled—young and hostile, but not stupid.” – Tom DeLonge

Fans have been looking forward to Alex Kirilloff ’s return since his most recent season-ending trip to the injured list. The 25-year-old former top 25 prospect has had a rocky beginning to his MLB career. He got off to a great start in 2021, appearing ready to live up to the hype surrounding him before a wrist injury in May 2021. Since then, he’s undergone two surgeries and has looked questionable in limited MLB time.

Through 104 MLB games, he’s been inconsistent, with some highs but a 94 OPS+ overall, at times losing the ability to hit the ball with any authority. He, the Twins, and fans hope those days are behind him following surgery to shorten his ulna bone to give his wrist more room to operate. Early results have been promising, as he has hit three home runs with a .391 batting average and a 1.326 OPS at AAA.

His rehab assignment—limited to 20 days—ends on Monday, May 1 (Mayday! Mayday!). Given this information, it’s easy to believe he will be on the big league team soon. However, signs are pointing elsewhere. Why would a player crushing the ball in AAA and at the end of his rehab stint not be moments from donning an MLB jersey?

Club officials have been characteristically tight-lipped about Kirilloff’s timetable. Little is truly known for sure about the situation. Still, Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic reported that many in the organization believe he will be optioned to AAA at the end of his rehab assignment to give him more time.

This development is abnormal. If he’s healthy enough to play at AAA, he should be healthy enough to play in MLB. If he’s crushing AAA, he should be ready to step into an MLB lineup and at least hit well enough to get regular time. Even if he didn’t have a standard spring training, hitting on the backfields in Ft. Myers and getting a full three weeks of minor league baseball should be enough, right?

Well, therein lies the problem. Kirilloff has not had a full three weeks in the minors. At the time of this article’s writing, he has played back-to-back days only twice—April 15th and 16th, then again on April 20th and 21st. He has played 10 games in 16 days and only finished the most recent three on the field. The Twins are slow-playing his return.

There’s really no telling what’s going on with him or how soon we’ll see him. We need to be prepared for him not to show up next week.

There’s where the speculation starts.

As fans, we’re only privy to what we are told. For the rest, we speculate. Three fans could read the above information and jump to three different conclusions. Maybe he’s not healthy enough to play more than three or four times per week. Maybe the Twins aren’t pushing him as hard as they need to. Maybe they plan on keeping him down long enough that he won’t hit arbitration this year as an edict from Cheap Pohlad.

Then the takes get fired. 

He needs to be up ASAP because the lineup needs him, and his on-field results indicate he’s healthy. He can play every other day in the majors. He needs to learn to play through pain. His wrist is cooked if he can’t play every day yet. Cheap Pohlad needs to sell the team. Daddy Rest is keeping secrets, so he might not even have a wrist. Nelson Cruz was fine without a wrist. The Twins should have DFAed him.

Obviously, the team could be more forthcoming (see Jamie Cameron’s suggestions for better communication). A note in the Athletic and a bunch of box scores can’t provide fans with all the information they crave, and we make our own stories in the absence of information. Heck, in the presence of information, we still make our own stories.

Injuries, though, are challenging to communicate about. Naturally, there are privacy concerns. Beyond that, though, is the general uncertainty and nonlinearity of recovery times. There are timetables, but they’re more suggestions than rules. Kirilloff’s situation is even more nebulous, given the lack of precedent for his surgery and the length of time he’s been working to get back—we’re coming up on two whole years since his injury.

But still, we want to know what’s going on. We want to be able to evaluate and critique the move. We want to have a plan and to know what to expect. We hate the unknown. 

I don’t have answers. You don’t have answers. Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli don’t have answers. Nick Paparesta probably doesn’t have the answers. But we want so deeply to know what’s going on so that we can have an opinion on it or just sleep a little better at night.

Do we really need to have an opinion on it, though? Sure, speculation is fun. Certainty is comforting. Speculating yourself into a sense of certainty checks both of those boxes. But what good does that do?

I don’t mean to preach—you can handle the information given to you however you want; it’s the fun of sports. I’ve just reached the point where I don’t pay much attention to injury updates. Let me know when he (whether that be Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Chris Paddack, or Matt Canterino) makes it back to the majors. Until then, I’ll watch and analyze the game on the field.

There are simply better things to critique the Twins’ management over than a cloudy injury recovery whose shadows we watch on the wall of Plato’s Cave. We don’t need to worry ourselves sick about the unknown when we could instead be arguing about who deserves the seventh spot in the bullpen—which is much more fun. Get back soon, Alex. And rake.

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[TL]

I think you send him down to give him extra time to get comfortable with the wrist and prove health. If he needs another month to ramp up to playing every day, better to do that in the minors than reducing our MLB bench by 1 every other day while he rests.

And I could be wrong about this, but he's also accrued a lot of service time on the injured list. I think if he is sent down for > 15 days he won't accrue a year of service time and would push FA back by a year.

 

[stringer bell]

44 minutes ago, TL said:

I think you send him down to give him extra time to get comfortable with the wrist and prove health. If he needs another month to ramp up to playing every day, better to do that in the minors than reducing our MLB bench by 1 every other day while he rests.

And I could be wrong about this, but he's also accrued a lot of service time on the injured list. I think if he is sent down for > 15 days he won't accrue a year of service time and would push FA back by a year.

 

Kirilloff’s service time going into 2023 was 1.141. He’s already accrued 30 more days of ML service time while on the IL, so he only needs about ten days more on the major league roster to pass two years of service time. If he is optioned on May 1, the service time accumulation will stop and 15-30 days in AAA would likely keep him from being arbitration-eligible this offseason. So long answer shorter— no sending him down certainly wouldn’t be about free agency and team control, but an option could benefit the Twins financially, by avoiding AK being classified as a Super 2, and arb eligible. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

Probably won't bring him up until Rocco works out a Pre-planned Rest Day schedule for him. Imagine the wails from the fan base if Kirilloff, Correa and Buxton are all "resting to avoid re-injury" in the same game, all three unavailable to play or pinch hit.

[Craig Arko]

30 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Imagine the wails from the fan base if Kirilloff, Correa and Buxton are all "resting to avoid re-injury" in the same game, all three unavailable to play or pinch hit.

Do I have to? Seems like a recipe for migraines.

[Riverbrian]

54 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Kirilloff’s service time going into 2023 was 1.141. He’s already accrued 30 more days of ML service time while on the IL, so he only needs about ten days more on the major league roster to pass two years of service time. If he is optioned on May 1, the service time accumulation will stop and 15-30 days in AAA would likely keep him from being arbitration-eligible this offseason. So long answer shorter— no sending him down certainly wouldn’t be about free agency and team control, but an option could benefit the Twins financially, by avoiding AK being classified as a Super 2, and arb eligible. 

I'm guessing a month in the minors would keep him from Arbitration.

 

Disclaimer: Don't trust my math. 

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm guessing a month in the minors would keep him from Arbitration.

 

Disclaimer: Don't trust my math. 

It varies from year to year, but somewhere between 2-120 and 2-130 is where the line has been drawn. Arraez qualified at 2-121 year before last. A month, putting his time at 2-111 would almost certainly be enough for the Twins to avoid arb. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

It varies from year to year, but somewhere between 2-120 and 2-130 is where the line has been drawn. Arraez qualified at 2-121 year before last. A month, putting his time at 2-111 would almost certainly be enough for the Twins to avoid arb. 

Reasonable guess by me but if it was the price is right. I wouldn't be running on to the stage.  

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Reasonable guess by me but if it was the price is right. I wouldn't be running on to the stage.  

I can see it--"Riverbrian, come on down!"

[roger]

I don't care about arbitration, service time or anything else talked about above.  I believe this kid will be the real deal and I want him crushing the ball for the Twins at Target Field and on the road.  Now!

[Althebum82]

The unasked question here is who do the Twins drop to get Kirilloff on the 26 man roster? Castro is the easiest answer to that question. It appears that they are committed to Gordon and Solano in the infield, at least until Farmer returns.

Do they finally give up on Kepler instead?  He as actually right now hitting at above career averages, and still playing elite defense.  This would not seem to be good timing for this move.

So, let's send Castro packing and give Kirilloff the chance to goose up our offense instead of the offense of the AAA team.

Service time considerations are a sad reason to not make the right move.  But, I suppose ultimately baseball a business with business choices to consider.

Sigh.

 

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

23 minutes ago, roger said:

I don't care about arbitration, service time or anything else talked about above.  I believe this kid will be the real deal and I want him crushing the ball for the Twins at Target Field and on the road.  Now!

I am a fan of AK and really believe (as you do) that if healthy, he is the real deal. As the OP points out there are unknowns about his health and the possibility exists that he won't ever reach his full potential. There isn't an easy way to put Kirilloff on the active roster and see how it plays out. Byron Buxton is currently a full-time DH, Joey Gallo has been terrific and both Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach have above-average OPS+ numbers at this point. 

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

The unasked question here is who do the Twins drop to get Kirilloff on the 26 man roster? Castro is the easiest answer to that question. It appears that they are committed to Gordon and Solano in the infield, at least until Farmer returns.

Do they finally give up on Kepler instead?  He as actually right now hitting at above career averages, and still playing elite defense.  This would not seem to be good timing for this move.

So, let's send Castro packing and give Kirilloff the chance to goose up our offense instead of the offense of the AAA team.

Service time considerations are a sad reason to not make the right move.  But, I suppose ultimately baseball a business with business choices to consider.

Sigh.

 

 

 

 

I don't think service time issues are the only reason why Alex Kirilloff or any player gets optioned, but it certainly can be a factor. A similar case is Edouard Julien....his current optional assignment will guarantee that he won't be credited with a full year of service time and be under team control through 2029. In another case, the Twins kept an undeniable major league relief pitcher (Duran) on the roster for the entire year and now will have him under team control through 2027.

[roger]

11 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I am a fan of AK and really believe (as you do) that if healthy, he is the real deal. As the OP points out there are unknowns about his health and the possibility exists that he won't ever reach his full potential. There isn't an easy way to put Kirilloff on the active roster and see how it plays out. Byron Buxton is currently a full-time DH, Joey Gallo has been terrific and both Max Kepler have above-average OPS+ numbers at this point. 

True, true and true.

Doesn't diminish my desire, and hope, that this kid will be back and 100% healthy, soon.

Although they are all lefties, could play three of Gallo, Larnach, AK and Keps every night with each getting every fourth game off.  Could even add a few days of DH for that group when Buxton gets his scheduled maintenance day or begins playing a few games in center.  Now I don't know who gets sent down when both AK and Farmer return, but that decision is what the Front Office gets paid the big bucks for.

[Minderbinder]

Well, that was five minutes of my life for which I'll never see a return....

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

It varies from year to year, but somewhere between 2-120 and 2-130 is where the line has been drawn. Arraez qualified at 2-121 year before last. A month, putting his time at 2-111 would almost certainly be enough for the Twins to avoid arb. 

I'd like to see Kirilloff up sooner rather than later because I'm HOPING his offensive ability would provide a boost while I have no idea if his offensive ability would provide that boost. 

However... based upon the service time numbers... I could certainly justify keeping him in St. Paul for just long enough before we find out. 

A key consideration is that he has just one option remaining so this is the last year that his service time can be shrunk down below the threshold. 

Stringer... I know you understand but others may think that I'm talking about service time manipulation. 

I want to be clear... I am. 

These are the rules set forth in the recent collective bargaining agreement. The rules that determine how all 32 teams operate. The CBA makes it beneficial for clubs to make these types of considerations and operate accordingly.  The rest of the teams are going to do the same, therefore it would be a disadvantage not to. 

I assume that the super two status won't matter that much financially unless Kirilloff is a superstar. I like the idea of planning for the possibility that he is a future superstar.... just in case. 

 

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, roger said:

True, true and true.

Doesn't diminish my desire, and hope, that this kid will be back and 100% healthy, soon.

Although they are all lefties, could play three of Gallo, Larnach, AK and Keps every night with each getting every fourth game off.  Could even add a few days of DH for that group when Buxton gets his scheduled maintenance day or begins playing a few games in center.

Agreed, but optioning Castro or DFAing either Gordon or Solano reduces the right handed hitters and defensive flexibility. The most likely scenario is that one of perhaps eight guys goes on the Injured List in the next week or so and Kirilloff is recalled in their place. 

[Nine of twelve]

27 minutes ago, roger said:

I don't care about arbitration, service time or anything else talked about above.  I believe this kid will be the real deal and I want him crushing the ball for the Twins at Target Field and on the road.  Now!

And if he is the real deal and he's healthy he'll win every arbitration hearing. So I think he's a candidate for extension if things go well.

[Greggory Masterson]

12 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Well, that was five minutes of my life for which I'll never see a return....

Your minutes might not return, but hopefully Kirilloff does.

[Jeff K]

18 minutes ago, roger said:

True, true and true.

Doesn't diminish my desire, and hope, that this kid will be back and 100% healthy, soon.

Although they are all lefties, could play three of Gallo, Larnach, AK and Keps every night with each getting every fourth game off.  Could even add a few days of DH for that group when Buxton gets his scheduled maintenance day or begins playing a few games in center.  Now I don't know who gets sent down when both AK and Farmer return, but that decision is what the Front Office gets paid the big bucks for.

The problem of who to send down when AK and Farmer return is a good problem to have.  Castro is a fairly easy call.  It does get tough after that.  The Twins will likely use the DL for anyone with a sniffle when push comes to shove to make room.

[chpettit19]

The offense seeming to finally figure things out makes this a tougher situation. The 3 "everyday" lefties are all performing well, and I don't think they'll want to bring Kirilloff up to sit on the bench like Gordon. Castro is their backup SS right now so they won't send him down until Farmer is back to take that role. Gordon or Solano are the 2 most likely to be replaced, but I wouldn't think they'd DFA Solano for a lefty. My guess is Lewis takes his job eventually. My guess would be that Gordon has until Buxton starts getting time in CF to earn his spot. The Twins have said that mid-May is when that could be happening. So 2 more weeks? I'd guess Kirilloff takes Gordon's spot if Larnach keeps hitting, and Gordon doesn't. You can then have Kirilloff, Kepler, Gallo, and Larnach all in the lineup vs righties when Buxton is in CF.

As for the medical stuff, the reports from the Twins beat writers yesterday was that Paparesta said Kirilloff playing back to back 9 inning games (which he just did) was the end of the medical stuff. Basically they'll track him for a couple days and make sure he's good, but he has the medical greenlight, and it's just a baseball decision now.

[stringer bell]

I wonder if Kirilloff will play today against the Red Wings. I'd bet against it. 

[Greggory Masterson]

37 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I wonder if Kirilloff will play today against the Red Wings. I'd bet against it. 

He's off today

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I hope Kirilloff comes up and absolutely crushes the ball.  However, I think he is best served spending a little more time in St. Paul and crushing the ball there.  He has been injured for the better part of two years and injuries are scary to come back from.  Much of it just involves healing and rebuilding muscles and stamina.  But an important part of the recovery is also mental.  It is vital that he can become totally trusting of his wrist holding up and also able to play without even thinking about it.  That will be better achieved with the reduced pressure of AAA baseball.  Keeping him down for a month or so will help him avoid another setback and help him completely become the player we all think he can be. 

[tony&rodney]

If Kirilloff is still in St. Paul on May 15, it is a bad deal for the Twins. It would mean some combination of health and nonperformance kept him down in AAA. Both are poor outcomes for a player the Twins need to be a real threat in October. A healthy, productive Alex Kirilloff would bolster any lineup and he has the talent to fit right into the middle of the lineup.

The discussion of who loses their roster spot will be pretty evident. If someone is injured, a spot opens. If everyone is healthy, we know it is one of Castro, Solano, or Gordon. For right now, I would choose Castro as my extra infielder and Gordon as my overall utility player. Solano has had a good start this year but he cannot play in the field. When Farmer returns, another guy needs to go. I don't know what the Twins plan for Nick Gordon. He had some decent swings recently but rarely gets an at bat. Personally I would like to see the Twins roster 14 position players, but expect all of Solano/Castro/Gordon to be elsewhere by June. We know that Taylor and Jeffers are here to stay, barring injury and also expect that Farmer gets a uniform.

[Rosterman]

Alex has options and needs the regular playing time. The hard decision is: play him at first base fulltime.

I almost question the need of the Twins to add Josh Winder back on the roster,m rather than a longer stint (optioned) in the minors. Looking at the way things panned out for a couple of other injury comebacks (Madea and Alcala), I almost wish they had stayed on extended spring training (contract incentives be damned for Madea) and that Ober opened the season with the Twins.

Alex has not been on the field enough. He needs to tear up Triple-AAA, show he can do more than put a ball-in-play. Can he field, can he run (and steal). This is a multi-tool talent that has basically garnered more than a year of service time on the injured roster.

 

[h2oface]

"Maybe they plan on keeping him down long enough that he won’t hit arbitration this year as an edict from Cheap Pohlad."

"Cheap Pohlad needs to sell the team."

It just can't be these, right? 😇

 

 

[Jocko87]

11 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

And if he is the real deal and he's healthy he'll win every arbitration hearing. So I think he's a candidate for extension if things go well.

This is the answer. I believe they will wait to bring him up for a week or two as they want it to be the last time they move him from the 26 man roster. If they believe the wrist is behind him he's the ideal candidate for an extension that buys out arbitration. He'll never have a hearing if the wrist is good.

Another reason to wait is that hitting has warmed up in the last week. The gapping hole he would fill is gone. No urgency so take the time to make sure he's right. I have no issue with a week or two more at AAA.

[weitz41]

I get the service time manipulation angle, but to this point I have not seen the FO due that to any other players. So that seem highly unlikely to me.

My opinion is that he needs to build up stamina or a track record before they should alter the 26 man to get him back in the bigs. A couple weeks of playing well and every game in AAA would be the hurdle I'd like to see crossed before I'd make a change.

That being said if there was an injury to a position player, he would be my 1st player called up.

[stringer bell]

Service time manipulations may or may not play in situations. Miranda might have been ready to step in on Opening Day last year, especially based on his preceding year in the minors, but I think service time was factored in to give him no shot in Spring Training. Royce Lewis was sent down, which coincidentally would rule him out from getting early arbitration status, but there were other factors in both cases. I don't think any team wants young players with high ceilings sitting on the bench accruing service time. 

As far as whether to promote Kirilloff at this point, I would say that as a fit 25-year old, the only concern would be the wrist and if swinging a bat against 95 mph fastballs doesn't bother him, he should be in the major leagues. Paparesta has seemed to say that the medical end of his ramp up is complete. Let him play here and now if he is one of the best 13 position players.