Is it Ober for Maeda?

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree. I think that while Ober would need to stay in AAA 15 days since he was optioned, he can come back immediately to replace a pitcher put on the IL.  We shouldn't need a starter in Maeda's spot until next Tuesday 5/2 in Chicago so there is time to think. 

There's time to think about it but they can back-date an IL stint only three days so the decision needs to come soon.

[Riverbrian]

It's nice to have a couple decent options to consider for Maeda's spot in the rotation. We should be able to seamlessly take time not rushing Maeda back. 

Now before we get too rough on Maeda. Lots of comments about moving him into a LR role. 

Before yesterday. Maeda's numbers were not horrible

13 IP

12 K's

WHIP 1.00

His average velo has dropped a couple of cents since his first start at 91 to 88 in yesterday's game but fighting injury could possibly explain that.   

Anyway... Just want to state that Maeda hasn't been horrible... At least not yet. We don't need to make a hard decision on him at this point in time.   

 

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Anyway... Just want to state that Maeda hasn't been horrible... 

I agree with that, but Ober has been better. They are a better team with Ober in the rotation and Maeda in the bullpen than with Maeda in the rotation and Ober in AAA.

[Squirrel]

25 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It's nice to have a couple decent options to consider for Maeda's spot in the rotation. We should be able to seamlessly take time not rushing Maeda back. 

Now before we get too rough on Maeda. Lots of comments about moving him into a LR role. 

Before yesterday. Maeda's numbers were not horrible

13 IP

12 K's

WHIP 1.00

His average velo has dropped a couple of cents since his first start at 91 to 88 in yesterday's game but fighting injury could possibly explain that.   

Anyway... Just want to state that Maeda hasn't been horrible... At least not yet. We don't need to make a hard decision on him at this point in time.   

 

Considering he is/was the 5th starter, before yesterday, his numbers weren't bad. That said, if he does go on the IL, it will be good to see what Ober or Varland continue to do. If they are better ... then what? I've been a proponent for giving Maeda some time and leeway coming back from TJ as I think he's earned that with us, but, if an IL/rehab stint don't give him that, some decisions may have to be made. If Ober or Varland will do better, that should be the call. 

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I agree with that, but Ober has been better. They are a better team with Ober in the rotation and Maeda in the bullpen than with Maeda in the rotation and Ober in AAA.

I don't know yet if they would be better with Maeda in the BP. We haven't seen that yet. Maeda needs to 'get right' before that switch is made, if it is made.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

As others have stated, the 0-4 record doesn't tell the complete story here.  Until yesterday, he was pitching pretty well.

Barring something major, Maeda will be given more opportunities this year, as he should.  The fact that we-as-fans are arguing about which pitchers in the minors should be pitching in the majors is a great problem to have and not one we are used to.

[valgravel91]

This is a heart over head take but I kind of don't want to throw him to the wolves again, start wise. I was listening to the radio (was at work) and Rocco was talking about how surprised they were by the quality of his bullpen session... Is that blowing smoke or is that like a fault in how we evaluate bullpen sessions? I don't want to overreact because he's been the worst pitcher but something about Maeda's last start felt climactic.  

[Riverbrian]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I agree with that, but Ober has been better. They are a better team with Ober in the rotation and Maeda in the bullpen than with Maeda in the rotation and Ober in AAA.

I wouldn't argue your point either. I'm excited about Ober and Varland.

However, we can hold Ober and Varland in AAA and we can't do that with Maeda. So, I wouldn't make hard decisions or sharp adjustments to Maeda at this point in the year.

Now... if he is getting lit up more often than he is not getting lit up when he returns from the DL... Yes of course.

Apart from that... Come the trade deadline, when the injured have been injured, when small sample stats have been stabilized and we know exactly how the pitching stands going into the stretch run. At that point, If you have to make a hard decision... then you make it.

Until then... I wouldn't be in a hurry to deplete the depth on the one thing that has been working extremely well for the club in April.  

[Riverbrian]

50 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Considering he is/was the 5th starter, before yesterday, his numbers weren't bad. That said, if he does go on the IL, it will be good to see what Ober or Varland continue to do. If they are better ... then what? I've been a proponent for giving Maeda some time and leeway coming back from TJ as I think he's earned that with us, but, if an IL/rehab stint don't give him that, some decisions may have to be made. If Ober or Varland will do better, that should be the call. 

Like I mentioned in my reply to DLJ44 above. 

The starting pitching has been the one thing that has shined in the month of April. I wouldn't be in a hurry to deplete that depth because we know that harder times are coming. Pitchers will get hurt... we will need that depth. 

So unless Maeda is stinking up the joint when he comes back from the DL. I have no problem letting a "Better Pitcher with options" hang in AAA. The only thing that would change my mind is if Ober or Varland is really really really better.

If Maeda has a sub 4 ERA and Ober is tossing a sub 3... make the move. You don't take numbers like that for granted. 

If Ober or Varland is only a little bit better. Keep your depth... you will need it. 

In other words... it would take special performance from the youngsters or clear below average performance from Maeda. It would need a clear separation to sacrifice that depth early.  

  

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I wouldn't argue your point either. I'm excited about Ober and Varland.

However, we can hold Ober and Varland in AAA and we can't do that with Maeda. So, I wouldn't make hard decisions or sharp adjustments to Maeda at this point in the year.

Now... if he is getting lit up more often than he is not getting lit up when he returns from the DL... Yes of course.

Apart from that... Come the trade deadline, when the injured have been injured, when small sample stats have been stabilized and we know exactly how the pitching stands going into the stretch run. At that point, If you have to make a hard decision... then you make it.

Until then... I wouldn't be in a hurry to deplete the depth on the one thing that has been working extremely well for the club in April.  

One could make the argument that the comfort level in SWR is the bigger question. Taking Maeda out of the rotation puts you at 6 guys I think most of us are comfortable with on some level. They're going to need more than 6 starters to get through the year. If people are comfortable with SWR you have 7 guys. That's a little better as you'd hopefully be limiting the number of starts by the Sanchez/DeLeon/Rodriguez/Dobnak group.

Unless people think 2023 is the year Gray doesn't hit the IL, Ober throws 175 innings, and Mahle's shoulder isn't a concern at all they shouldn't be pushing too hard to remove anyone from the rotation. It does put them in a tougher spot since Maeda likely isn't as talented as Ober and/or Varland at this point in his career, but if he's not completely toast I don't think it's wise to put yourself in a spot where you only have 6 guys you're comfortable with starting games when your team is built around your starting pitching.

[Old Crow]

The Twins can afford to let Maeda fully heal and rehab in St. Paul.  Ober has earned and deserves a spot in the rotation.  

[Mike Sixel]

I like Varland better, but think Ober will get the next start.

As for SWR, his stuff has been awesome in AAA, but his results not. I'm not worried at all yet. 

I also think Headrick is a fine 7th/8th starter, and if things go badly they have enough veteran pitchers in AAA to take the fifth spot occasionally. 

[Riverbrian]

44 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

One could make the argument that the comfort level in SWR is the bigger question. Taking Maeda out of the rotation puts you at 6 guys I think most of us are comfortable with on some level. They're going to need more than 6 starters to get through the year. If people are comfortable with SWR you have 7 guys. That's a little better as you'd hopefully be limiting the number of starts by the Sanchez/DeLeon/Rodriguez/Dobnak group.

Unless people think 2023 is the year Gray doesn't hit the IL, Ober throws 175 innings, and Mahle's shoulder isn't a concern at all they shouldn't be pushing too hard to remove anyone from the rotation. It does put them in a tougher spot since Maeda likely isn't as talented as Ober and/or Varland at this point in his career, but if he's not completely toast I don't think it's wise to put yourself in a spot where you only have 6 guys you're comfortable with starting games when your team is built around your starting pitching.

Being a 57 year old male I've never given birth to a child. 

I've been in the room twice. I've witnessed all 9 months of the process, I've watched the facial expressions when the pain hits, I've heard the moans, the breathing exercises, the ice chips, the discussion on if pain medication is needed, I felt my wife squish my hand with each contraction. I've listened to my wife talk about how painful it was afterwards and from what I saw... I believe her. Women are tougher than Men from what I witnessed those two times I stood by.  

3 months later I've heard my wife say that "It wasn't that bad". She seems to forget what she went though... I didn't. 

Much like my wife forgot the pain of childbirth.

Twinsdaily posters seem to forget that we needed 9 or 10 starters just to get through EVERY YEAR and the pain of not having 9 or 10 capable starters.  

 

   

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Being a 57 year old male I've never given birth to a child. 

I've been in the room twice. I've witnessed all 9 months of the process, I've watched the facial expressions when the pain its, I've heard the moans, the breathing exercises, the ice chips, the discussion on if pain medication is needed, I felt my wife squish my hand with each contraction. I've listened to my wife talk about how painful it was afterwards and from what I saw... I believe her. Women are tougher than Men from what I witnessed those two times I stood by.  

3 months later I've heard my wife say that "It wasn't that bad". She seems to forget what she went though... I didn't. 

Much like my wife forgot the pain of childbirth.

Twinsdaily posters seem to forget that we needed 9 or 10 starters just to get through EVERY YEAR and the pain of not having 9 or 10 capable starters.  

 

   

I didn't know where you were going to go with that, but I like the analogy. Well done, sir.

[tony&rodney]

FWIW, Varland on the mound right now in Rochester.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There's time to think about it but they can back-date an IL stint only three days so the decision needs to come soon.

I think Maeda will be out longer than 15 days (I think they should stretch the IL stint and the rehab assignment out as long as they can), and if that's the case a day or two or seven isn't going to matter. In addition, we have a day off on Monday. If the other four starters pitch on 4 days rest we don't need a fifth starter until Saturday, May 6. It's just so they have someone available to go on that date. The more immediate move would be putting another relief arm on the 26-man until the 6th.

[FlyingFinn]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

FWIW, Varland on the mound right now in Rochester.

And pitched well. 4 days rest before Tuesday so he would still be an option. I still think Ober will be player called up.

[John Belinski]

It is hard to understand why Rocco or the pitching coach did not know Meada wasn't ready to pitch. He hasn't looked good in any of his starts and Twins cannot afford bad games like yesterday.  The Twins are lucky to have other pitchers who can take his place. I would not be surprised if he never pitched again for the Twins.

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, valgravel91 said:

This is a heart over head take but I kind of don't want to throw him to the wolves again, start wise. I was listening to the radio (was at work) and Rocco was talking about how surprised they were by the quality of his bullpen session... Is that blowing smoke or is that like a fault in how we evaluate bullpen sessions? I don't want to overreact because he's been the worst pitcher but something about Maeda's last start felt climactic.  

So what you are suggesting?  Rocco and Co. knew the bullpen session went badly, lied to the media and fans and still put him out there to start?  What good would that do anyone?

Isnt it reasonable that the bullpen session went fine and something happened while he was throwing yesterday?

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Like I mentioned in my reply to DLJ44 above. 

The starting pitching has been the one thing that has shined in the month of April. I wouldn't be in a hurry to deplete that depth because we know that harder times are coming. Pitchers will get hurt... we will need that depth. 

So unless Maeda is stinking up the joint when he comes back from the DL. I have no problem letting a "Better Pitcher with options" hang in AAA. The only thing that would change my mind is if Ober or Varland is really really really better.

If Maeda has a sub 4 ERA and Ober is tossing a sub 3... make the move. You don't take numbers like that for granted. 

If Ober or Varland is only a little bit better. Keep your depth... you will need it. 

In other words... it would take special performance from the youngsters or clear below average performance from Maeda. It would need a clear separation to sacrifice that depth early.  

  

Well put, and the same can be applied to Kepler/AK, Farmlanodon/Julien etc. 

The key is actually making the move when these parameters are met. 

[gman]

They'll know more when they've had his arm examined today. Whether we'll know more is another question. We'll know more only if they put him on the IL. I'd go with Ober first if Maeda hits the injury list. Varland can then fill the extra slot they seem to incorporate every 2 weeks or so.

I wouldn't expect them to drop to a 4 man rotation for 2 weeks to see what happens to Maeda. Either they think he'll be ready for his next start or someone will take that spot. No point to risk another arm this early in the season, off day time off has already been incorporated into the rotation.

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Based on Rocco’s presser, it seems pretty certain Maeda is IL bound. I’m pretty sure Ober will get the call as replacement. After that stretch and rehab, we’ll just have to see how it plays out.

The somewhat related question; does Headrick also get sent back to St. Paul after the long stint today?

I’d like to see Headrick stay…..if Winder is ready I’d bring him up as well. These guys are for longer stints but either could throw to the minimum of 3 guys as well. Headrick threw one inning in between his long outings. They are our best talent. 

Maeda has to go on IL & should take minimum of  3-4 weeks to try & find himself.

Ober seems to be the obvious replacement.

[SwainZag]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’d like to see Headrick stay…..if Winder is ready I’d bring him up as well. These guys are for longer stints but either could throw to the minimum of 3 guys as well. Headrick threw one inning in between his long outings. They are our best talent. 

Maeda has to go on IL & should take minimum of  3-4 weeks to try & find himself.

Ober seems to be the obvious replacement.

The Headrick move back to AAA has already been announced. 

[Craig Arko]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’d like to see Headrick stay…..if Winder is ready I’d bring him up as well. These guys are for longer stints but either could throw to the minimum of 3 guys as well. Headrick threw one inning in between his long outings. They are our best talent. 

Maeda has to go on IL & should take minimum of  3-4 weeks to try & find himself.

Ober seems to be the obvious replacement.

Headrick was optioned yesterday; just a question of who is called up prior to the first KC game. I’d guess Winder but we’ll see.

[laloesch]

5 hours ago, wabene said:

It is too bad it's taken 4 losses to get to this point. I'm a little surprised that while working closely behind the scenes with Kenta, management couldn't see he didn't quite have it, that it cost this many games. It is hindsight and not quite that simple I suppose.

I think Ober is still the #6 guy, with Louie #7. Hendrick may be edging past the 22 year old SWR for #8. Ober has the talent to run with this chance and he looks ready. Will be hold up? 

Yeah i found this irritating as well.... that it took them 4 losses to realize that Kenta might need a trip to AAA or the IL to work the rust off etc.  It's also disrupted the team's rhythm in those games. 

All that said I'm pretty pumped to see Ober up here and Varland intrigues me as well.

[Squirrel]

Stay on topic, please! If you can't understand an analogy without taking it personally and derailing a thread, you are in the wrong place.

[Jeff K]

23 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

According to Baseball Savant he did not have a pitch faster than 90 MPH today (89.9 was the high). 2 starts in a row where his FB was in the 87-89 range. That’s not going to cut it in the bullpen. 

It’s possible he just won’t get the velocity back. Won’t be the first or last pitcher who had major surgery in their mid 30s and be cooked. 

At the end of the day, his lack of velocity has no place on the roster.  It seems nearly certain that he will go on the DL.  When he returns, he needs to prove himself in rehab or face being released.  The Twins have a good team with a chance to make a strong run to the playoffs and can't afford to carry him on the hopes of reclaiming past glory with Maeda.  Professional sports are merciless.

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

Yeah i found this irritating as well.... that it took them 4 losses to realize that Kenta might need a trip to AAA or the IL to work the rust off etc.  It's also disrupted the team's rhythm in those games. 

All that said I'm pretty pumped to see Ober up here and Varland intrigues me as well.

His first "loss" he threw 5 innings of 1 run ball and the Twins lost 1-0.  His 3rd loss he threw 2 innings before getting hit by a liner and gave up 1 run, the bullpen gave up 10.  he was terrible yesterday, but this going out of the way thing to make Kenta seem a lot worse than he has been is wild.

If he had Joe Ryan run support he would be 2-1 with a no decision. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think the concern is not just yesterday's results, but the fact his fastball was at 87-88 MPH. Everyone can have a bad day. Very few pitchers can survive at the MLB level with an 87-88 MPH fastball. Suggest he isn't ready to pitch after the surgery yet. 

[TopGunn#22]

Maeda should be given plenty of time to work things out in St. Paul.  On second thought, I'd send him to Fort Myers and let him pitch in warm weather.  I've been impressed with Ober AND Varland so it's nice to have TWO solid choices.  Headrick has also been pretty solid so there is no reason to rush Maeda back into the rotation.  He needs to build up a little more velocity and a bit more command.  I'm also VERY READY for Alex Kirilloff to arrive.  He doesn't need to play two games in a row right away, but I'd love to see it.  They need his BAT and they need it NOW.