Minnesota’s Core Four: Can the Twins Win a Championship with the Current Core?

[Cody Christie]

Many organizations have tried to emulate the Yankees because of their championship pedigree. Does this mean the Twins can win a championship with their newly updated core players?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Every organization attempts to keep its winning window open as long as possible. Some teams can win multiple championships with the same core group. The Yankees won four World Series titles in five years with a core four that included Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera. Minnesota’s two World Series titles include core players like Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Greg Gagne, and Gene Larkin. In baseball, it takes more than four players to win a championship, but key players must perform at a high level to have sustained success. 

Last July, I identified players that comprised the team’s core four, but some pieces have changed over the last nine months. So, who are the current members of the Twins Core Four?

Byron Buxton
Contract Status: Signed thru 2028, 7 yrs/$100M (22-28)
Earliest Free Agency: 2029
Twins fans may be frustrated with the team utilizing Buxton as a full-time DH, but he signed a team-friendly deal. According to FanGraphs, Buxton has provided the Twins with a value of $32 million or more in each of the last two seasons. Minnesota only pays him around $15 million per season, so he continues to be worth more than he is paid, even with time missed due to injury. There is some question about how long the Twins will keep Buxton in a full-time DH role, but Michael A. Taylor has performed well as the team’s starting center fielder. He’s one of the team leaders, and the Twins line-up is better with him batting on a daily basis. 

Carlos Correa
Contract Status: Signed thru 2028, 6 yrs/$200M (23-28), 29-32 team option
Earliest Free Agency: 2029
Correa wasn’t included on last season’s list because his initial Twins contract would likely be for one year. He opted out of his contract and went through one of the strangest free agent sagas in MLB history. The Twins were lucky to add Correa on a contract with multiple team options at the tail-end of the deal. He is arguably one of baseball’s top 30 players, and Minnesota’s winning potential is tied to his performance and long-term health. Correa can be under team control for the longest of any player on this list, so his long-term legacy will be connected to the Minnesota Twins.

Pablo Lopez
Contract Status: Signed thru 2027, 4 yrs/$73.5M
Earliest Free Agency: 2028
Last season, Joe Ryan was the starting pitcher identified in the core four, and he continues to be part of the team’s long-term plans. Lopez wasn’t on the Twins last season, and now he is signed to a long-term deal that will keep him in Minnesota through his age-31 season. Before trading for him, the Twins identified Lopez as a pitcher who might not be meeting his full potential. The front office was forced to part ways with Luis Arraez, but Lopez has been terrific to start the year. He’s added velocity to his fastball, and he added a sweeper this spring that has stymied hitters early in the season. Lopez has dealt with some injury concerns, but he has found a better routine to stay healthy. The Twins are betting on his early season success translating to a top-of-the-rotation starter. Last season, Joe Ryan was the starting pitcher identified in the core four, and he continues to be part of the team’s long-term plans. 

Jhoan Duran
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration Eligible
Earliest Free Agency: 2028
Duran has established himself as one of baseball’s most dominant relief arms. Minnesota transitioned him to a bullpen role last season, and he immediately became a force. During the 2022 season, he led the American League in win probability added and posted an 11.8 K/9. His strikeout rate has increased in 2023, and the Twins are using him in a more traditional closer role. Bullpen arms can be tough to evaluate long-term because they often burn bright for a season or two before fading away. The Twins moved Duran to the bullpen because of health concerns in the minor leagues. Now, he hopes to stay healthy and continue to perform as one of baseball’s best relief pitchers. 

What do you think the ceiling is for Minnesota’s Core Four? Would you put someone else in the group? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[mikelink45]

I like the question, but cannot give you an answer.  I will say that Larkin was not a foundation player.  Gaetti and Knoblauch were the players to added to Puckett and Hrbek.  But also there was Frank Viola and Jack Morris. 

[Mark G]

I guess I am not sure what is so magical about the number 4.  I also get the impression that at least part of the criteria of the selections is the amount of team control; I noticed none of the other keys to this season (Gray as just one example) are in it.  Only due to team control?  Age maybe?  There are others as well.  I would put Ryan into the group as an expansion, not a replacement.  And if Miranda comes around as we hope (expect?) he will, would we add him?  Or are we only going to talk long term proven veterans we have a long term control relationship with?  If that is the case, we have a solid 4, as long as they stay on the field.  But I still wonder:  if we were to lock in a couple of young players who don't have quite the track record of these 4, but guys we consider part of our future, would we be willing to extend the number of the core?  

[Peter]

Yes they can! Not if but when 

[Doctor Wu]

I think we can argue about the so-called "core" players, but as I look at the Twins this year, I think for the first time in many many years, they certainly DO have the players that can take them to another World Series. Bullpen is better, starters are better, and if the hitting finally comes around on a consistent basis, we will be a force to be reckoned with. Or so I keep hoping ...

[MinnInPa]

nope sorry to be a downer ..  but, core impact players need to be hitting closer to .300..knocking in more runs and not K'ing as much... Lopez and Duran ..maybe. right now this Twins team does not have the hitting to compete for a world Series

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

I think we can argue about the so-called "core" players, but as I look at the Twins this year, I think for the first time in many many years, they certainly DO have the players that can take them to another World Series. Bullpen is better, starters are better, and if the hitting finally comes around on a consistent basis, we will be a force to be reckoned with. Or so I keep hoping ...

The games against the Yankees and Astros show they are competitive. In years past, they might have one or two starting pitcher you felt reasonably good about, and then were nervous the other three days. Now, with Lopez, Gray, and Ryan they have at least three, and Mahle, Ober and (maybe) Maeda aren't far behind.  The bullpen has at least four arms that inspire confidence as well. Then there is the defense, which is really good. That's a great foundation for winning baseball. The offense is a bit of a concern - they need to get Correa going for starters - but the return of Polanco has been encouraging, as has been the emergence of Larnach and Gallo in the middle of the lineup. Plus, they've only played 3 games with KC and none with Detroit, so it's not like they're feasting on their central division cousins.

[Beast]

Current core?  Yes.

Current supporting cast?  No.  If guys like Maeda or Mahle are starting playoff games, and guys like Pagan and Moran are getting playoff appearances, I don’t think the pitching staff stands a chance.  To avoid that we need Gray to stay healthy, which he hasn’t been in a number of years.

The position players look good enough on paper.  Taylor has been great, but I wouldn’t trust him to get a hit with 2 guys on in the bottom of the 7th in a one run playoff game.  I’d hope Buxton is back on center.  Kepler needs to return to form, which is a huge ask.  Alex K as well.  Miranda needs to hit for more power.

I like our chances much more than previous years to win a playoff series.  I don’t think we can make a run to the championship yet.  Another good offseason and some prospect development - maybe in a year or two.

[MGX]

There are many players players that contribute to team success. You can label them however you want & say certain players are core players. Why pick a random number - 4?

As someone pointed out above Gene Larkin was a contributor, but doubt many would say he was core member of those teams. In '87 Viola & Blyleven were essential to the teams success & Gaetti, Bruno, Berenguer & others were huge. In '91 a few names emerged like Morris & Davis. In your Yankees example how would Bernie Williams be left out, Paul O'Neiil etc.

On this years team the depth is more important than trying to come up with who the core players are, IMO. Regarding future seasons the key contributors can change season by season so I'll just be happy knowing we have players with potential to be good in the future combined with some quality veteran players who are signed over the next few years & a FO that seems willing to address shortcomings, for the most part.

[John Belinski]

I keep waiting for Correa to start hitting, He left 6 on base last night and his batting average is way below what it should be for a player with his contract. Buxton batting average is also below average so it is disappointing as a fan to see the two highest paid hitters with such low batting averages.

[blindeke]

Not if Buxton never plays in the outfield again...

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I also would not like this restricted to 4 core.  Look at last year's WS champion.  Houston, had like 6 core players (Verlander, Altuve, Framber Valdez, Bergman, Alveraz, Tucker, etc.).

The Twins need guys like AK, Larnach, Lee, Lewis to join those four you mentioned to even be in the discussion for a potential WS run IMHO.

[farmerguychris]

Can we please start by winning a playoff game?  Then a playoff series?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I really like what the Twins are trying to do.  Locking up four of your strongest players for multiple years is a good start. From a core standpoint, it is hard to add to this list right now:  Polanco and Kepler are on the back end of their time here, guys like Ober, Gallo, Miranda, are still in prove-it mode.  The rest is unproven youth 
 

[Craig Arko]

I would add Polanco and Ryan, but that’s just me.

[tony&rodney]

Michael A. Taylor has been terrific for the Twins this year. Byron Buxton appears healthy and has been in the lineup most days. The Twins are above even in April. The Twins will need Buxton in centerfield at some point, however, because as much as we may like MAT for his current contributions there are better lineup combinations possible going into the summer. I'm not too worried about Correa but think he is more suited to hit in the 5/6 hole. The Twins will absolutely need one of their less experienced players to take a big step forward this year, hopefully two or three. The Twins are not going to be led by just four players if they hope to contend. I'm real hopeful for Buxton and keep saying 130 productive games, but both his health and production are always a question.

[WinTwins162]

While I agree this is a nice long-term core-4, as a Twins fan in San Diego, I have been watching up close what the Padres are doing with long-term commitments, and their core-6 is amazing:

Machado, Bogarts, Tatis Jr., Cronenworth, Musgrove, and Darvish. All locked up for 5-10 years. Also a good chance Soto stays long-term.

San Diego and Twin Cities are similar size markets and owners have similar financial capacity (I think Pohlads are worth more than Padres owner). So, while the Twins may have enough to win a weak AL Central, the Padres are building for multiple World Series. 

Of course, Twins vs Padres in WS is my dream. We'll see.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

nope sorry to be a downer ..  but, core impact players need to be hitting closer to .300..knocking in more runs and not K'ing as much... Lopez and Duran ..maybe. right now this Twins team does not have the hitting to compete for a world Series

In addition  , batting Kepler as lead off or hitting 4th or higher is not conducive to a winning team  ...

Also we will never win with the manager we have  ...

I hope I can be proved wrong  ...

[twinssporto]

I would make the case that adding Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee and Edouard Julien could add 3 to the core 4 = 7!

[Nashvilletwin]

A World Series contending Twins team will not have a such a limited “core”. Sure, it will have leaders and high(er) priced veteran players (who btw, need to produce more - looking at you CC and BB).

But the true “core” for the truly next multiple year “open window” is going to comprised of young(ish), cheaper, rising players - both in the field and on the mound. Lee, Lewis, Julien, Rodriguez, maybe Kiriloff and Larnach, Ryan, Ober, Prielipp, SWR, Varland, Raya, Duran and others - some or most of these players are going to be the true “core”. These are the players that need to reach their potential (that’s right, looking at you Rocco and staff - that’s your most important job over the next three years) and be here on relatively cheap, controllable contracts for multiple years.

That’s how small/mid-market teams like the Twins can truly compete over several years,

[cjj td]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

I guess I am not sure what is so magical about the number 4.  I also get the impression that at least part of the criteria of the selections is the amount of team control; I noticed none of the other keys to this season (Gray as just one example) are in it.  Only due to team control?  Age maybe?  There are others as well.  I would put Ryan into the group as an expansion, not a replacement.  And if Miranda comes around as we hope (expect?) he will, would we add him?  Or are we only going to talk long term proven veterans we have a long term control relationship with?  If that is the case, we have a solid 4, as long as they stay on the field.  But I still wonder:  if we were to lock in a couple of young players who don't have quite the track record of these 4, but guys we consider part of our future, would we be willing to extend the number of the core?  

I'm thinking Miranda might be fighting for a spot on the team after the wave of expected prospect gets here over the next couple years.  Without some trades, things get pretty tight in a hurry.

[MinnInPa]

29 minutes ago, twinssporto said:

I would make the case that adding Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee and Edouard Julien could and 3 to the core 4 = 7!

you beat me to it !! these 3 look like hitters...when we lost Arraez we lost our only true hitter..one that doesnt K at an unacceptable 30 % plus rate. it sickens me to watch these guys flail away at the plate..or take strike 3 looking

[Ricky Vaughn]

If Buxton is only going to be a DH from now on, as Rocco seemed to say the other day I don't think he can be considered a core player anymore.

[Mortimerkenny21]

A core 4 is a good start. But perhaps a Fab five or Sensational six would get us deeper into the playoffs. And by deeper, I mean winning at least one dang playoff series!

[awmonahan]

I think you add Ryan to the list, make it core five and try to buy out arb and early FA years from both Ryan and Duran. 

[Battle ur tail off]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I like the question, but cannot give you an answer.  I will say that Larkin was not a foundation player.  Gaetti and Knoblauch were the players to added to Puckett and Hrbek.  But also there was Frank Viola and Jack Morris. 

Yes, how can you not have Frankie V as a core player. He was flat out amazing in 87 and 88. He also added Tapani and Aguilera who were vital to the run in 91.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I also would not like this restricted to 4 core.  Look at last year's WS champion.  Houston, had like 6 core players (Verlander, Altuve, Framber Valdez, Bergman, Alveraz, Tucker, etc.).

The Twins need guys like AK, Larnach, Lee, Lewis to join those four you mentioned to even be in the discussion for a potential WS run IMHO.

Can we agree this discussion has nothing to do with anything that has or has not happened on the field in the last 3 weeks?  Good?  Thanks.

I agree with Big Forks.  Baseball has too many contributors for the core 4 concept to work.  In this example we are talking about the main dude in each group.  We talk about the core all the time but we are actually talking about the group of players that are under control for a long term and that we believe are fully in the FO plans for a good while. 

It's probably actually about 12 guys and we could argue over the 12 for days.  I counted Brooks Lee but not Ober or Varland.  Why?  Hell if I know.  My gut says they are much more tradable that Lee.  E-Rod could be considered, whoever is drafted #5 could be considered.  I gave Christian Vazquez a half point as 3 years for a veteran catcher is an eternity. 

Fun exercise though.

[Jocko87]

7 minutes ago, awmonahan said:

I think you add Ryan to the list, make it core five and try to buy out arb and early FA years from both Ryan and Duran. 

Ryan, Duran and Lopez are all free agents in 2028.  It made me happy just to type that.  I don't disagree that they should consider buying out some ARB years but there are going to be several potential candidates for this and it will be hard to do them all. 

[Fatbat]

I see buck and C4 more as mentors to the core thats coming soon. Lee, Lewis, Erod and Raya. Throw in Ryan and this years #5 pick and add them to Lopez and Duran and you will have a real deep/long window for multiple playoff runs. We aren’t going to be drafting in the top ten again anytime soon. 

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Michael A. Taylor has been terrific for the Twins this year. Byron Buxton appears healthy and has been in the lineup most days. The Twins are above even in April. The Twins will need Buxton in centerfield at some point, however, because as much as we may like MAT for his current contributions there are better lineup combinations possible going into the summer. I'm not too worried about Correa but think he is more suited to hit in the 5/6 hole. The Twins will absolutely need one of their less experienced players to take a big step forward this year, hopefully two or three. The Twins are not going to be led by just four players if they hope to contend. I'm real hopeful for Buxton and keep saying 130 productive games, but both his health and production are always a question.

I agree with your comments.  I would add that the Twins do need some help with hitting and Kirilloff seems like the best hope for improvement without making a trade.  Great having Polanco back in the lineup.