How Long of a Leash Will the Twins Give to Pending Free Agents?

[Cody Christie]

On the Opening Day roster, the Twins have seven veteran players heading to free agency. Since the team doesn't have a long-term commitment, how long of a leash will the Twins give each player in 2023?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

Minnesota has an interesting dynamic on the 2023 roster. The front office focused on accumulating veteran depth, but there is also roster flexibility because many veterans aren't under team control beyond 2023. Many of the Twins' top prospects are in the high minors, and the team expects them to be knocking on the door to the big-league level. How long will the Twins stick with underperforming veterans if younger players are ready?

Michael A. Taylor, CF
Leash: Long
Byron Buxton will start the year in a primary DH role, which means Taylor will get regular center field reps. The Twins brought him in because of his defensive reputation, and anything he provides offensively will be a bonus. Taylor is only due $4.5 million for the 2023 season, so he will get plenty of opportunities even if his offensive output is below average. 

Donovan Solano, UTL
Leash: Medium
Minnesota signed Solano to a one-year, $2 million deal at the end of February. Jorge Polanco is starting the year on the IL, so Solano figures to get regular infield reps at second base. Over the last four seasons, he has posted a 109 OPS+, so he has been slightly better than the league average. Solano should continue to get playing time even if a prospect is ready to take on a starting role with the Twins. 

Sonny Gray, SP
Leash: Long
It takes a lot of starting pitching to make it through a 162-game season, and the Twins expect Gray to continue to be a veteran presence in the rotation. During his first season in Minnesota, Gray posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in just under 120 innings. Gray's performance would have to drop significantly for the Twins to cut bait in the middle of the season. He likely has the longest leash of anyone on this list. 

Joey Gallo, OF/1B
Leash: Medium
The Twins invested $11 million in Gallo because they believe he can return to being an All-Star caliber hitter. He struggled in 2022 with a 79 OPS+, 30 points below his career average. Minnesota has multiple power-hitting corner outfield prospects, so Gallo isn't guaranteed a spot for the entire season. If he's hitting poorly in the first half, he can be expected to lose at-bats to a younger player. 

Tyler Mahle, SP
Leash: Medium
Minnesota invested significant prospect capital in acquiring Mahle, and he dealt with shoulder issues following the trade. He struggled in spring training by posting a 5.93 ERA, including 23 hits (three home runs). His fastball velocity fluctuated during his spring starts, but the team hopes he can put his injury woes behind him. Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods Richardson will be waiting at Triple-A for a return trip to the majors. 

Kenta Maeda
Leash: Short
The Twins have Maeda penciled into the rotation's fifth spot, and his leash is the shortest among the starters. He is 35 years old and returning from elbow surgery. The Twins have steadfastly said he is a starter, but they have no commitment to him beyond this season. He seems likely to start in the rotation and move to the bullpen if/when there are struggles. He's been an effective reliever, which might be the best way to extend his big-league career. 

Emilio Pagan
Leash: Short
Pagan should have the shortest leash of anyone on this list, but the Twins might think more highly of him than fans. He improved in the season's second half but hasn't been a good reliever in multiple seasons. Minnesota will need him to pitch in some crucial spots during the season's first month, and the team might need to move on if he struggles again. Last season, the Twins moved on from someone like Tyler Duffey in the middle of the season, so there is some precedent with the current front office. 

Who do you think has the shortest leash among the players listed above? Who has the longest leash? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

 

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[Heiny]

Had to read the article twice to try to find something I disagree with.  Still can't.  Would agree with all and probably emphasize on Pagan.  Seems he has good stuff, but results are the key.  Put it together or take your pink slip to Detroit.

[JD-TWINS]

So I agree with most - certainly with the Pagan analysis!

Solano is cheap, which makes cutting ties a bit easier but his experience will keep prospects at bay, I agree. Not sure though, if Kiriloff & Polanco come back by May 1 ………& if Larnach is still hitting well (not OK but well) they gotta send him down or DFA Solano……unless someone else is hurt.

Maeda - his leash may be short “as a starter” but I don’t see him going anywhere other than the Pen.

Mahle - if medium v. long leash, where does he go? I guess he could go to long relief & Ober could take his spot. Can’t imagine him getting DFA’d.

Taylor is stable as long as he’s healthy. Need the depth.

[Eris]

The article is probably quite on. I probably disagree the most with the assessment of Kenta Maeda. Maeda has always been a good pitcher and I see no reason why he will not come back. Part of this is wishful thinking but expect him to get stronger as the season progresses. 
 

Mahle. I cringe at what the Twins gave up for him. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Solano may lean towards long leash if he provides good at-bats when pinch hitting for Gordon or Gallo.  He and Farmer provide a great tool for Rocco to utilize as we saw to some degree in both games so far.

[Rosterman]

The Twins have to figure out WHO they might like to extend (Sonny Gray?). 

Otherwise, you do hope that ALL the pending free ageYou also have to look at Kepler and Polanco as being in the mix of cutting early ties.nts prove productive so, if players perform well at AAA, they become tradable for more than a bucket of balls - long-term prospect - I would put Solano and Madea into the trade for prospect camp.

The Twins will have to make a hard decision when Polanco returns and especially if and when Kirilloff proves a need to come back to the majors. (I imagine Castro will go to the minors for Polanco, but Alex opens a can of worms).

Mahle is still young and if halfway decent, could the Twins flip him to get back some of the minor league prospect product they traded top the Reds, which was significant at the time.

You also have to put Kepler and Polanco into the picture. The Twins may have an immediate replacement in Julien at second base. At some point the Twins have to make a decision on where to play Lewis, what is the status of Wallner as a right-fielder, and if Martin is still a part of a longterm solution.

[Trov]

I agree with most, but Mahle will get plenty of leash due to his history of sustained success.  Sure, if his velo is down and doing terrible and looks cooked, then they will do what need to, but he will get plenty of run in my opinion. 

[mikelink45]

If we are really contender then bad performance need to be cut or sent down, no matter who they are.  We cannot have another episode of Colome or Pagan dragging us down for months. 

[PatPfund]

I'd put Taylor right up there with Gray on the long side, and unless a CF prospect goes wild, Michael might be the most likely to return especially if Buxton is healthy most of the year playing PT in the field.

I'd call Mahle a "long" given what they gave up, and his history, but not as long as Gray/Taylor. I think it will take an injury to get him superceded in the foreseeable future. But if he recovers, I'd be more willing to extend Mahle than Gray (due to age).

I agree the Twins are probably medium on Solano, though he should be "short"; he's 35, and his last two seasons are pure average in OPS+. No way an aging mediocrity with no team heritage (or record of FT success) should block an MLB-ready prospect. Castro is the first send-down if a middle infielder starts knocking or Polanco comes back, but Solano is the easy 2nd move. (Ex: Jorge comes back PT, Julien starts hitting, and the Twins still need a leadoff hitter.)

Totally agree with you on Pagán. Wish the Twins did too...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Taylor - No leash.  Buxton DHing in the first three games tells you Taylor's role here.

Solano - Medium.   Until injuries heal, there really is no proven body to fill his role

Gray - No leash.  Kind of dumb to say he has a leash.  

Mahle - Long, long leash.  I believe the Twins think he is a long term piece.  He will be given every opportunity to be successful.

Gallo - I think Gallo's leash will be shorter than I would like.  He may be the most replaceable on this list.  If he can't show some level of improvement, he could be gone fairly soon.

Maeda - As a starter, medium leash.  As a Twin, they will give him a chance to be a BP guy.  Too much respect here.

Pagan - Medium.  Forget his first few appearances, he showed flashes of success last year.  Low expectations here, they will only move him into high leverage if needed

[FlyingFinn]

Pagan's leash should be the only short one. Maeda should get better as he pitches more. I would actually give him a long leash. If he has to, he goes to the pen. Mahle should have a long leash and is the most likely for the Twins to get an extension done with.

[minman1982]

If I were to rank them from shortest leash to longest leash, here would be my ranking:

1. Pagan: it shouldn't take much for the Twins to want to move on, especially if they can move Maeda to the bullpen.

2. Maeda (as a starter): if he struggles and/or Varland, Ober, or SWR are doing well, moving Maeda to the bullpen to make room for one of the young guys makes sense. 

3. Solano: as soon as Polanco and Kiriloff are healthy, someone has to go. That someone is probably Solano.

4. Gallo: Even though he may seem like he is expendable, there are a lot of ways Gallo sticks around. His ability to play many positions makes him somewhat valuable especially if he can provide some offense. 

5. Mahle: unless he reaggravates his injury and/or multiple of the Ober, Varland, SWR group are doing really well, he is going nowhere.

6. Taylor (aka the Byron Buxton insurance plan): unless he turns out to be a complete black hole on offense, he is going to get playing time. When you consider who the Twins have had to play in the previous couple seasons when Buxton was out, Taylor is a clear upgrade.

7. Gray: totally safe and going nowhere. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think most of these are on the money.  Gray, Mahle, and Taylor are going nowhere, and shouldn’t.  In fact, I think one of those pitchers plus possibly Taylor get resigned/extended.  

Gallo.  If he keeps hitting like today, he’ll play all 162 games and we’ll be happy he is doing it, regardless of what the strike out counters say.  I actually think that Kepler has a shorter leash than he does and we trade him for a prospect and a bag of balls if he doesn’t start hitting soon.

Maeda is such a wildcard.  If he could pitch like it’s 2020, it’s a no brainer to keep him around, but if he is slow to regain form or is just ineffective, he becomes Chris Archer.  I think that the first “demotion” would be to the bullpen, but he’s got to be effective to keep a job.  

I actually think that Solano will be the first guy to go, either as a minor trade or a cut.  When Lewis gets healthy/someone else forces the issue through strong performance at St. Paul, he’s the logical guy to go.  

Pagan.  Argh!  Nuff said.

I don’t think anyone else is going anywhere unless the team is in a lot of trouble.  

[David HK]

Pagan's leash should be whatever distance is measured between Target Field and St. Paul.

[Jkeady12]

Pagan, I am ready to let him go now and that is a year to late.

[Major League Ready]

In the order they are likely to be here at the end of the season.

Pagan will get 12-15 appearances to look the part.  Then, he will be replaced as soon as be replaced as soon as one of Henriquez, Winder or Megill pitch well enough to prompt ahis replacement.

Taylor at first glance seems likely to stick around.  However, the optimistic view or best case is Buxton is playing 4-5 days a week in CF by mid-May.  Let’s hope Lewis and/or Martin replace Taylor by July 1.  They are more complete players and more versatile defensively so we will get more out of the roster spot. 

Solano is a great bench player but the ideal scenario is a healthy Polanco and Julien playing so well they can’t keep in AAA and Solano is moved to make room.   

Maeda depends on how well he bounces back.  The Twins have Ober/Varland, and SWR waiting for a spot.  A good offer at the deadline might be more intriguing than putting Maeda in the pen especially if a couple of Alcala/Henriguez/Winder/Megill are looking good.

Gallo:  2021 Gallo is not going anywhere unless they get an offer they can’t refuse at the deadline.  If he looks like 2022 Galo he is traded or released by the deadline.  If he is midway between those two years his fate will be a product of the health and performance of Kirilloff/Larnach/Gordon/Lewis/Julien.

Mahle:  Lots of variables with Mahle starting with health.  A healthy Mahle is an extension candidate.  An underperforming Mahle could be moved in favor of Varland or SWR if they are having a great year.  The twins need to find 3 replacements in next year’s rotation.  

Gray is a very similar situation to Mahle.   
 

[Battle ur tail off]

21 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

So I agree with most - certainly with the Pagan analysis!

Solano is cheap, which makes cutting ties a bit easier but his experience will keep prospects at bay, I agree. Not sure though, if Kiriloff & Polanco come back by May 1 ………& if Larnach is still hitting well (not OK but well) they gotta send him down or DFA Solano……unless someone else is hurt.

Maeda - his leash may be short “as a starter” but I don’t see him going anywhere other than the Pen.

Mahle - if medium v. long leash, where does he go? I guess he could go to long relief & Ober could take his spot. Can’t imagine him getting DFA’d.

Taylor is stable as long as he’s healthy. Need the depth.

Forget Kiriloff. Honestly, his career is over and it's a pipe dream that he ever comes back and plays many games. The wrist is gone. 

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, David HK said:

Pagan's leash should be whatever distance is measured between Target Field and St. Paul.

Pagan has enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment.  And he's out of minor league options anyway.  St Paul fans will be spared the annoyance.  Trade or cut, those are the alternatives (either of which I support).

[Ricky Vaughn]

No leash for Pagon. He needs to be on a choke chain. Solano will be traded when when Lewis is ready, if not sooner. All the starters are safe (may be on the disabled list though). Farmer may be traded if they want bring up a prospect or save some money. One of Taylor and Gallo is safe depending on their hitting. The other one goes.

[Jeff K]

On 4/2/2023 at 1:11 PM, Rosterman said:

The Twins have to figure out WHO they might like to extend (Sonny Gray?). 

Otherwise, you do hope that ALL the pending free ageYou also have to look at Kepler and Polanco as being in the mix of cutting early ties.nts prove productive so, if players perform well at AAA, they become tradable for more than a bucket of balls - long-term prospect - I would put Solano and Madea into the trade for prospect camp.

The Twins will have to make a hard decision when Polanco returns and especially if and when Kirilloff proves a need to come back to the majors. (I imagine Castro will go to the minors for Polanco, but Alex opens a can of worms).

Mahle is still young and if halfway decent, could the Twins flip him to get back some of the minor league prospect product they traded top the Reds, which was significant at the time.

You also have to put Kepler and Polanco into the picture. The Twins may have an immediate replacement in Julien at second base. At some point the Twins have to make a decision on where to play Lewis, what is the status of Wallner as a right-fielder, and if Martin is still a part of a longterm solution.

I think calling out Kepler and Polanco is fair.  I see Kepler getting outrighted as our youngsters become ready.  Polanco could be a trade candidate.  I hope he hasn't reached the stage of his career when he is breaking down...although that seems like a possibility.

[MGM4706]

Why is Pagan even on the roster. Completely failed in every clutch situation last year down the stretch. This year two hits in his inning plus even his outs were hit hard. He is not fooling anyone with his pitches and has lost enough on his fastball that it is like batting practice. Move on from him and give a kid that slot.