Entering 7th Season, What Are This Front Office's Strengths and Weaknesses?

[Adam Friedman]

Over the first six years of the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine era, the Twins have been up and down. They've made the playoffs three times, including two division titles. 

Yet, they are coming off two straight losing seasons, putting into question whether this regime will see an eighth season leading the organization.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into 2021, it seemed evident that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had things under control. They modernized the organization analytically, assembled a farm system of players seemingly ready to make an instant impact, and had just won two straight division titles – the franchise's first since 2010. 

The organization seemed poised for sustainable success with its leadership's thoughtful, cutting-edge decision-making steering the ship. 

There have always been critics of this front office, but on the back of 2021 and 2022, they have grown louder and multiplied. Some will question the regime's competency, others will criticize their lack of an "ace," and a vocal group of critics will question whether their entire philosophy and reliance on data is the right way to run a baseball team. 

Let's examine what this group has done well and poorly to evaluate whether the boisterous critics of Falvey and Levine are onto something. 

Front Office Strengths 

Development of Homegrown Major League Bats

Terry Ryan, a scout by trade, always prided himself on putting together rosters built around cores of homegrown position player talent. This ability to construct a nucleus of quality hitters drafted or acquired via international free agency has carried over to the current regime. 

It's a critical skill when working with a middling payroll. The Twins can distribute their funds to a few extra quality players because they have team-friendly structures with most position players. 

Beyond utilizing those homegrown bats in everyday roles, they have shown an ability to develop hitters that they can flip in trades – even if they weren't top picks. That allowed them to acquire Tyler Mahle, and it could come into play again at this deadline when trying to bolster a playoff-caliber roster. 

Increased Aggression in Acquiring High-End Talent

Under the current front office, the Twins have shown a more aggressive approach than the previous regime when acquiring high-end talent, and they've continued grown more emboldened over seven years at the helm. 

We first saw that when they acquired Nelson Cruz ahead of the 2019 season. That aggression grew when they signed Josh Donaldson to a record free agent deal. While this contract didn't pan out, it made a statement.

They traded Donaldson while he still had some value, which enabled them to pay Carlos Correa, breaking the Donaldson contract record. Of course, they eventually shattered Correa's record when they re-signed him. Add in various trades – including the ones that brought in all five of this year's starting rotation members – and the increased aggressiveness is undeniable.

Front Office Weaknesses

Bullpen Construction and Reliever Free Agents

One common thread between the losing seasons in 2021 and 2022 was bullpen meltdowns from newly acquired pitchers. 

In 2021, Alex Colomé deflated the team and its fans with his early-season implosions. In 2022, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers for Emilio Pagán. He held it together for a bit but memorably cost the Twins multiple times against Cleveland as the Guardians sped away in the divisional race. 

Beyond those memorable blowups, they have repeatedly tried to sign relief pitchers on small short-term deals, but most haven't worked out either. Due to the volatility of relievers, building a good bullpen is extremely difficult, but the Twins have rarely had enough homegrown arms or capable enough external additions to do so. 

It may be different this season, but it's one thing to have a good group on paper and another for them to succeed in games. 

Starting Pitching Development and Free Agent Acquisitions

When the Pohlads tapped Falvey as president of baseball operations, they touted him for his role in building the terrific pitching development pipeline in Cleveland. However, Falvey has yet to materialize that level of pitching development success in Minnesota. To this point, Bailey Ober is the only homegrown starting pitcher that has proven to be major-league caliber during the Falvey and Levine era. 

Others may be on the precipice, including Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, and David Festa. However, they all have yet to prove they can be quality starters at the major-league level. 

Beyond the lack of internal development, the front office has invested very little into starting pitchers on the free agent market. Most of their free agent starter acquisitions have been bargain-bin signings, like Homer Bailey, Dylan Bundy and Matt Shoemaker. Most of those did not work out, with their only successful free agent starter addition being Michael Pineda. 

Not developing starting pitching and not paying for it in free agency has been one of the most significant flaws of this regime. They may have put together a good rotation for 2023 via trade, but the development of their starting pitching prospects this season will be a crucial storyline to monitor.  

If the strengths remain strong and they have improved their weaknesses, the front office should have put together a winning team in 2023. If so, their future will be clearer as the organization's leaders. However, if their bullpen construction weakness rears its head again and tanks their season, and we don't see progress in developing quality starters, the Twins may be at the point of considering a front-office shakeup. 

Ownership is investing in this team like never before and that comes with heightened expectations.

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[Jocko87]

While I'm still baffled by Pagan, nervously optimistic about a new trainer and flat suspicious of supposed in game adjustments I do have to give them a lot of credit for the past 12 months.  Those are the 12 months of Correa during which they made significant changes in their approach to the trading deadline/roster construction methodologies.  I don't know how much credit to give them, Correa, Boras or the new Pohlad in charge but it feels like they stepped on the gas.  Their handling of the Correa situation was masterful, I would love to drink a beer with Falvey and compare notes.

They also deserve credit for putting themselves in a position that Correa would be interested in the first place.  Being flexible and stockpiling talent (mostly hitters) paid off big.  However, 6 days after signing Correa they signed Archer off the bargain bin.  That seems corrected for the most part, the veteran signings still have skill and the fits make sense.

There has also been a nice streak of good luck lately.  Correa is fortunate, but not a completely lucky situation.  Landing Brooks Lee and the 5th pick this year is dumb luck that we were long overdue for in the draft.  Can't penalize them for good fortune but they have to maximize it and so far they have. 

I will say I believe we need to think a little differently about Falvey and his pitching development story.  When we say home grown we assume drafted and that's not how he was successful in Cleveland for the most part.  Kluber, Carrasco, Cleavinger, Trevor Bauer were all trade acquisitions.  Damn few drafted talents although of course there were a few that contributed.  He did draft Bieber and McKenzie on his way out in 2016.  To me that's what they are doing here.  They have had to ramp up what they are willing to pay to get out of the bargain bin but trading for 21-25 yr old pitchers isn't bad business.

It would be a fascinating piece for someone to write now that he has several years here to compare.  I think we would find that the home grown reputation is mostly a creation of our casual fan brains.  For example, I bet all but the most attentive Guardians fans will be thinking Joe Ryan was a Twins home grown talent.

[DJL44]

One reason they have not been developing homegrown pitchers is they are far below average at signing international free agent pitchers.

[Brandon]

Rich Hill was a successful signing and Bundy could be considered as well since he didn’t hurt the team and didn’t get injured for 4 million.  8-8 record with almost 150 innings.  
 

pitching development started from scratch and was interrupted by Covid.  We have lots of prospects near ready.  I think what happens with this group determines their ability to develop pitchers.  They have developed several bullpen pitchers Jax, Duran, wiseler became a solid reliever under them, Moran, Winder is close if healthy.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

They rely too much on analytics!
They don't let the players play!
Their manager stinks!
They don't know how to keep the team healthy!
They don't know how to groom prospects!
They don't sign quality FA!  (They got lucky on Correa)
They aren't honest with the fans!
They wear ugly shoes!
Falvey's hair looks like....

Sorry, got a little sidetracked there...
 

[Whitey333]

Love your comment, Fire Dan Gladden!! Right on.  This regime is still a work in progress entering their 7th season in FO.  I think they treat the fans with disdain and disrespect.  Their stubbornness to stick with their "plan" as opposed to their results may work.  It may also backfire on them.  IMO this should be a put up or leave season.  

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

Rich Hill was a successful signing and Bundy could be considered as well since he didn’t hurt the team and didn’t get injured for 4 million.  8-8 record with almost 150 innings.  
 

pitching development started from scratch and was interrupted by Covid.  We have lots of prospects near ready.  I think what happens with this group determines their ability to develop pitchers.  They have developed several bullpen pitchers Jax, Duran, wiseler became a solid reliever under them, Moran, Winder is close if healthy.  

If Bundy’s season could be called a success, then why did he have to settle for a MILB deal? He couldn’t even get $1M guaranteed! It’s telling that no major league team even considered putting Bundy or Archer into their rotation.

Wisler pitched in 18 games for the Twins, I would hardly call that a successful acquisition. 

[Brandon]

7 hours ago, Danchat said:

If Bundy’s season could be called a success, then why did he have to settle for a MILB deal? He couldn’t even get $1M guaranteed! It’s telling that no major league team even considered putting Bundy or Archer into their rotation.

Wisler pitched in 18 games for the Twins, I would hardly call that a successful acquisition. 

There are pitchers who pitched worse than Bundy and Bundy was signed to be a back of rotation starter.  He pitched almost 150 innings and made the most starts on the team.   For 4 million + 1 million buyout is fine for what we got.  I’m not saying he was great or anything but he was worth what he was signed for hence a success.  
 

Wisler was here for a season. The 2020 Covid season.  The Twins had him make adjustments and he has been mostly successful since.  Even though he is not with the Twins.  But for the 2020 season he had a low ERA therefore a success.  

[Heiny]

I have a hard time criticizing Falvine.  I like the team they have built using a mid-range budget.  Developing players whether through draft or trade,  like Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda, Jeffers, Julian, Lewis,  Lee, Martin, Duran, Ryan, Winder, Jax, Ober, SWR and more.  And signing Correa, Donaldson(a signing that I really liked at the time) and trading for Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Lopez, Maeda, Urshela.  I think it would be very hard to build a ML team while working with a budget that does not normally allow for 8 to 10 year contracts worth several hundred million dollars.  And in my opinion, getting top end SP in free agency is extremely difficult and very risky considering there are 29 other teams that they have to compete with, many with much more money to spend. I believe our future looks bright with a quite a few promising pitching prospects and several big bats nearing the bigs.  So, I guess I'd have to say they've done a pretty outstanding job.  That's my two cents worth.  Don't ask for more.  My budget is even smaller than theirs.  See you at the ballpark.