Ober Optioned as Opening Day Roster Becomes More Clear

[Seth Stohs]

We knew it would happen. None of us thing that he is a minor leaguer. However, on Sunday, the Twins officially optioned right-handed starter Bailey Ober to St. Paul for the start of the season. Three other players were re-assigned to minor-league camp meaning just 32 players remain in spring hoping for one of 26 spots. 

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins will open their season on Thursday afternoon in Kansas City. After making four roster transactions on Sunday morning, it appears their Opening Day roster is pretty well set. Of course, the Twins front office will be talking to other teams about trades as well as watching the waiver wire, so it is obviously subject to change. 

Heading into spring training, we knew that the Twins had six potential starting pitchers for five Opening Day rotation spots. Would all six of them stay healthy through the spring schedule? Would they consider a six-man starting rotation? 

Well, the most important thing for the Minnesota Twins is that all six managed to stay healthy. Unfortunately for Bailey Ober, it means that he will have to start the season with the St. Paul Saints. 

In 2014, Ober was the national Freshman of the Year at the College of Charleston after he went 10-3 with a 1.52 ERA over 106 2/3 innings. That summer, he played for Team USA and hurt his elbow. He had Tommy John surgery and missed the 2015 season. he returned in 2016 and was drafted but chose to go back for his senior season. Following that 2017 season, the Twins made him their 12th round pick. Since then, two things have held true. 

First, he has pitched incredibly well. Just a look at ERAs by minor-league level are impressive: 2.43 in the rookie league, 3.62 in Low-A, 0.99 in High-A, 0.38 in Double-A, and 3.51 in Triple-A. Over 31 starts for the Twins the past two seasons, he is 5-6 with a 3.82 ERA. In 148 1/3 innings, he has 147 strikeouts with just 30 walks. This spring, he made three starts in big-league games and gave up no runs and no hits over six innings. He walked two and struck out six batters. 

However, the other truism of Ober's career is that he has missed a lot of time due to injury in the past. He has had some elbow concerns and the Twins have been very careful with him, knowing his potential. When he debuted in 2021, the Twins were very cautious. He was often limited to 60 pitches, or 75 pitches. Why? Because of his injury history, and because he did not pitch at all in 2020 due to the pandemic. In 2022, Ober posted a 3.21 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over his 11 starts and 56 innings. Unfortunately, he had a groin injury that limited his availability. 

As fans, I think we can understand the pecking order, but I think that we can say that while acknowledging that Bailey Ober is and should be a big leaguers. And we know that over the course of the season, Ober will make a lot of starts for the Twins as well. 

In addition, Aaron Sanchez was reassigned to minor-league camp on Sunday. That leaves these five as the Twins starting pitchers on the Opening Day Roster: Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle.

Let's jump to the bullpen. The Twins also reassigned left-hander Danny Coulombe to minor-league camp. The veteran southpaw signed a minor-league deal with the Twins in 2020 after missing the 2019 season with an arm injury. He has pitched in 41 games for the Minnesota Twins over the past three seasons. This is the fourth consecutive season that Coulombe has signed a minor-league deal with the team. And this spring, he was incredible. He pitched in seven spring games. In nine innings, he gave up only an unearned run on eight hits and four walks. He had 13 strikeouts. 

The very clear assumption is that, unless there are more moves coming, Jovani Moran will make the Opening Day roster. The bullpen will consist of eight pitchers. With the moves on Sunday, there are 10 pitchers for those eight spots. On Saturday, the Twins reassigned Jeff Hoffman to minor-league camp, and it is believed that he will opt out of his deal on Monday.  There are no more non-roster guys, so let's figure out who is yet in play. 

Twins Opening Day Bullpen: Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala, Cole Sands. 
Presumably Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez will begin the season on the Injured List as neither has pitched this spring due to injury. 

Alright, let's jump to the offensive side of roster. We know that Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, and Gilberto Celestino will start the season on the Twins IL. 

Catchers: I don't need to spend too much time on this position. Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers will split the time behind the plate. Tony Wolters remains on the spring roster as a non-roster guy, but he'll be assigned to the Saints unless something unfortunate happens. 

The Twins announced that Kyle Garlick has been reassigned to minor league camp on Sunday, just hours before he doubled off of lefty Chris Sale and the Red Sox. 

So, the position players on the Opening Day roster appear set as well. 
Infielders: Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, Willi Castro
Outfielders: Byron Buxton, Michael A. Taylor, Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon.

The semi-surprising name on the list is non-roster Willie Castro. The club will need to add him to the 40-man roster on Thursday, but there is an open spot after Dennis Santana was claimed by the Mets a week ago. The 25-year-old from Puerto Rico has spent much of the past four seasons with the Detroit Tigers. He's got 303 games and 1,092 plate appearances in the big leagues. While his career numbers are just .245/.292/.381 (.673), he can play all over the infield and outfield. And that can be said for several of the players that will be on the Twins opening day roster. 

With Jorge Polanco out, we could see Nick Gordon, Kyle Farmer, and Donovan Solano could all get time at second base. 

With Alex Kirilloff out, we could see Solano, Farmer, Jose Miranda, and quite a bit of Joey Gallo at first base. 

So, let's put a fun summary Opening Day Roster list here, and then feel free to discuss it in the comments. (again, pending transactions) 
Catchers: Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. (2)
Infielders: Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, Willi Castro. (5)
Outfielders: Byron Buxton, Michael A. Taylor, Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon. (6)
Starters: Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. (5)
Relievers: Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala, Cole Sands, Caleb Thielbar, Jovani Moran. (8)
Injured List: Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Gilberto Celestino, Ronny Henriquez, Josh Winder. (5)
60-Day IL: Chris Paddack, Royce Lewis. (2) 

Share your thoughts. 

 

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[h2oface]

Pagan and Sands coming in for relief? Now, that is scary.

Willie Castro? Add him to a bunch of backups that don't hit much, some who will be starting because of injuries.

I hope the pitchers make the gamble all worth it. They will need to be real good to make up for a lack of offense.

[Elite Benchwarmer]

Not a fan of this decision, he deserves to be the 5th starter.  Maeda doesn't look ready to be a major league starter - needs more time following TJ surgery.

[LewFordLives]

That just ain't right. Who gives the Twins a better chance of winning right now....Maeda or Ober?  Maeda has not pitched in a year and a half, and he is most likely gone after this year. He has been terrible so far this spring, whereas Ober has been solid. Let Maeda work out the rust from the bullpen.

[Trov]

Castro will be on the roster as long as Polanco or AK are in IL.  As soon as either are ready, he will get demoted, and eventually DFA when they need a 40 man spot most likely, unless he is on some crazy hot streak.  For those who are upset about Ober, it is basically the nature of the beast.  There are 5 guys that all cannot be sent down so they either have to work out of pen or be released.  Ober still can be sent down with no issues of having to release him.  Any one of the other 5 would either refuse an assignment, thus making a FA if that is an option, or would get picked up on waivers at a minimum, just as Ober would get picked up on waivers he had to pass through them.  

Ober will get to start in AAA and be ready to step in when needed.  If Maeda struggles out the gate, they can move him to pen roll and call up Ober much easier, than if Ober struggles out the gate you move Maeda from pen into starting roll and expect anything more than a few innings.  Maeda may be cooked based on age and TJ, and if so then we can figure that out and release him.  From a pure roster stand point this was expected and really the only move that makes sense.  

[SanoMustGo]

I bet Maeda will be on a short leash as a starter. He will be in the bullpen and Ober will be up with 3-4 avg to bad starts.

[FlyingFinn]

I'm surprised Sands made it over Hoffman (who now can opt-out). Sands is the long reliever until he pitches 5 innings in a game (whether good or bad). Then, off to St. Paul he goes and up comes another similar long reliever. The train back and forth will continue for this position on the 26 man and 40 man. Not pitching great allows these guys to clear waivers and return to St. Paul (Sands does have options). Last year, this spot was for Sands, Aaron Sanchez, Dereck Rodriguez, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Austin Davis, and Jharel Cotton. When they run out of options, they find out if the Twins are willing to lose you on waivers. The oddity is that Coulombe and Ober are better than Sands but Sands is a guy they are willing to have sit in the bullpen for two weeks without pitching if our five starters all are doing well. 

[wabene]

Pretty much as expected. Ober still needs to stretch out at this point and it is wise to slow that process down considering he pitched only 56 innings last year. That is if you have any hope of him pitching late in the year. I don't think the Twins are interested in four inning starts this year thankfully. So if you consider that I'm not sure how Bailey could end up still pitching in September, unless he has a substantial IL stint.

Castro is the surprise, here's hoping he's not up long and AK and Polo come back. 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Ober getting optioned to St. Paul is certainly disappointing, but it is no real surprise and quite necessary given the team’s current roster.  One of the other five starters will be either injured or ineffective in short order (this is the nature of pitching!) and he will be starting for the Twins.  I would bet on 20+ starts for the Twins from Ober this year (if HE is healthy).  I’m soooooooooo happy that we’re not calling up Aaron Sanchez (yet) or Chris Archer.

I’m oddly excited about Willie Castro.  Every now and then, there is a lightning in a bottle non-roster guy that winds up playing really well for a while at the beginning of the season and I think hat Castro might be that guy.  Defensively, he’s certainly very useful and maybe he can do enough offensively that we won’t miss Polanco and Kiriloff so much.  

 

[Vanimal46]

I’m shocked that Cole Sands is likely to make the opening day roster. He’s been pretty bad all of spring training. 

[DocBauer]

Stinks for Ober and he is a viable, quality ML SP. But a 6 man rotation just doesn't make sense and moving someone to the pen makes even less sense. Invariably, someone will not look good, get dinged with some injury, and a stretched out Ober will be up. At the very least, you need about 8 starters during a full season. Ober is going to end up with 20+ starts and hopefully 100+ IP at the ML level. 

Coulombe deserved the last spot. But roster construction has him biding his time at St Paul until needed. And he will be at some time. Right now, they want an arm that can pitch multiple innings and have options. Sands is sort of the last man standing right now, and figures to convert to the pen soon anyway.

But not keeping Hoffman to begin the season seems strange to me. He looked solid, and from what I read, the velocity was there and his secondary stuff showed some life. Being a former SP, he should be able to handle multiple innings. So why not him instead of Sands to open the season? Is a DAY ONE available option that important? This one stumps me. 

I didn't see immediate room for Garlick. He missed part of the spring, didn't exactly rake, and would have to be run through waivers if sent down. So why not just keep him in reserve for now?

Castro was the right choice for the last spot. Forget his ML career with Detroit so far,  not exactly a recent hotbed of player development or winning teams. The guy is only 25yo, athletic, fast with some pop, switch hits, had solid milb numbers, and can play solid defense at 6 spots. He's a perfect last man on the bench player until guys get healthy. And as young as he is, if he and the Twins can "fix" his hit tool, they may have found a steal of a utility man.

Forgetting the fact that Pagan shouldn't be around no matter what, the only head scratcher for me was Sands on the opening roster. Otherwise, this is the way it plays out best to begin with.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m shocked that Cole Sands is likely to make the opening day roster. He’s been pretty bad all of spring training. 

And it's not like he was dominant before....

Maeda better be on a short leash. 

[mnfireman]

Ober was destined for AAA the day the team traded for Lopez. Bad early season weather may have him promoted for double-headers.

Sands over Coulombe is somewhat of a head scratcher, let's hope his leash is as short as the ride is from St. Paul.

Hoffman will sign with somebody on Monday, but he appears to be one of those pitchers who could implode with no notice, the team already has (at least) one of those (Pagan).

The silver lining of the Kirilloff and Polanco injuries is that Larnach gets to break camp with the big league team. If Larnach starts out hot and nobody gets hurt it will be interesting to see what happens when they are ready to return.

The flip side to those injuries is that Castro gets to also break camp with the big league team. If Julien starts off hot in St. Paul the pressure will be on to promote him. If he hits with the big club, it will be interesting to see what happens when Kirilloff and/or Polanco are ready to return.

However, all bets are off if the injury bug rears its ugly head and the team needs to get into the not-ready-for-prime-time-players. Again.

[stringer bell]

Of the last guys to make the team, I think Sands is more questionable than Castro. The thing that he has going for him is that he is both on the 40-man roster and has an option remaining. I wrote on another thread that I doubt Sands will survive the month of April on the Twins' roster. 

I think Castro is a legitimate major leaguer. It wouldn't surprise me totally to see him some in the outfield early this year, particularly with Buxton serving as a DH. It's also important that he has an option remaining so he can be sent to St. Paul if Polanco or Kirilloff is ready. 

Yeah, it stinks that Ober is sent to St. Paul, but I really doubt he'll be there through April. Spending a month or more in AAA would take him out of consideration to be a Super 2 for arbitration. That would cost him some money.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Ober getting optioned to St. Paul is certainly disappointing, but it is no real surprise and quite necessary given the team’s current roster.  One of the other five starters will be either injured or ineffective in short order (this is the nature of pitching!) and he will be starting for the Twins.  I would bet on 20+ starts for the Twins from Ober this year (if HE is healthy).  I’m soooooooooo happy that we’re not calling up Aaron Sanchez (yet) or Chris Archer.

I’m oddly excited about Willie Castro.  Every now and then, there is a lightning in a bottle non-roster guy that winds up playing really well for a while at the beginning of the season and I think hat Castro might be that guy.  Defensively, he’s certainly very useful and maybe he can do enough offensively that we won’t miss Polanco and Kiriloff so much.  

 

Yup... I'm disappointed for Ober, but it is the right move. Ober's the 6th guy, then Varland #7, then SWR at #9, then probably Sanchez at #9 That's pretty solid depth.

I'm with you on Castro. While his OPS has been in the low-to-mid 600s 3-4 years, he hit .340something in the shortened 2020 season... and he can play everywhere, and he's only 25. 

That said, they will miss Polanco and Kirilloff. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Yup... I'm disappointed for Ober, but it is the right move. Ober's the 6th guy, then Varland #7, then SWR at #9, then probably Sanchez at #9 That's pretty solid depth.

I'm with you on Castro. While his OPS has been in the low-to-mid 600s 3-4 years, he hit .340something in the shortened 2020 season... and he can play everywhere, and he's only 25. 

That said, they will miss Polanco and Kirilloff. 

How many bad starts, or short starts, would you give the two veterans? Not the team, you?

[Thebigalguy]

Depth! Nothing like it. If I summarized last season, I could use one word: injuries. Now, the players on the MLB roster have a relay stick they can pass down the line when needed. Ober's ready and willing. Coulombe, ditto. If Buck and Correa stay healthy and productive, the lineup can be built to be potent. If Baldelli lets his starters go deep, the pen should be rested as needed. We're 0-0, tied for first. Four days and counting.

[davidborton]

Seth, superb summary for those of us who haven't dialed in this Spring. Been busy with WBC in Phoenix and college ball/high school ball in Tucson.

Thanks much.

db

[old nurse]

I could be wrong but it doesn’t seem like the starters have pitched many innings this spring. They may need another long reliever to go with Sands at the start of the season. If there are a lot of 4 inning starts to the season the bullpen might be overused by May. Once the starters get going it should be less of a problem. 

[chpettit19]

Nothing too surprising even if some of it is disappointing. Ober is definitely one of their 13 most talented pitchers, but he's not stretched out, and a 6 man rotation to start the year doesn't seem ideal. Sands doesn't look at all like he's one of their 13 best pitchers, but it's not surprising that they weren't looking to DFA anyone before the season to get Hoffman, or anyone else, in the long man role. My guess would be that Sands is pitching for not only his 26-man spot in April, but his 40-man. 

Castro had a solid spring and is drastically more versatile than Garlick, who appeared to be his main competition for the 13th hitter spot. He seems like a pretty ideal fit in that role as he can play just about anywhere defensively, and can provide some speed off the bench. Julien has to be frustrated, but I get not wanting him sitting on the bench in Minneapolis over getting everyday PAs in St Paul. If there was a starting spot for him I think it'd be a different story. But Larnach in LF and Gordon at 2B mixed with Buxton at DH would push Julien to the bench, and that's not a great role for him big picture. So, it's not all as ideal as possible, but all makes sense.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Catcher: Vazquez and Jeffers should not be splitting time behind the plate. Vazquez should be getting the great majority of the playing time, unless he proves us wrong with poor play. We'll be a much better team if he is the starter with Jeffers giving him the occasional day off.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

No surprises. Although I feel bad for Ober, everything could and probably will change in a week or two.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

54 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many bad starts, or short starts, would you give the two veterans? Not the team, you?

I think THIS is the right question.  For me, Maeda only gets about two or three.  Mahle about four.  The other three guys I roll with a long time.  

[mnfireman]

59 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Catcher: Vazquez and Jeffers should not be splitting time behind the plate. Vazquez should be getting the great majority of the playing time, unless he proves us wrong with poor play. We'll be a much better team if he is the starter with Jeffers giving him the occasional day off.

Last year with Boston Vazquez started 73/103 games behind the plate, then with Houston it fell to 23/58, so he is fully capable of starting 2/3 or 3/4 of the games behind the plate. And he is also capable of providing above average offense.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Nothing too surprising even if some of it is disappointing. Ober is definitely one of their 13 most talented pitchers, but he's not stretched out, and a 6 man rotation to start the year doesn't seem ideal. Sands doesn't look at all like he's one of their 13 best pitchers, but it's not surprising that they weren't looking to DFA anyone before the season to get Hoffman, or anyone else, in the long man role. My guess would be that Sands is pitching for not only his 26-man spot in April, but his 40-man. 

Castro had a solid spring and is drastically more versatile than Garlick, who appeared to be his main competition for the 13th hitter spot. He seems like a pretty ideal fit in that role as he can play just about anywhere defensively, and can provide some speed off the bench. Julien has to be frustrated, but I get not wanting him sitting on the bench in Minneapolis over getting everyday PAs in St Paul. If there was a starting spot for him I think it'd be a different story. But Larnach in LF and Gordon at 2B mixed with Buxton at DH would push Julien to the bench, and that's not a great role for him big picture. So, it's not all as ideal as possible, but all makes sense.

I really like your Sands assessment.  I agree this is his big chance and he needs to make the most of it or he is gonna lose his 40 man spot.  He has pitches with good movement but a penchant for giving up home runs and not finishing off batters with 2 strikes.  If he can fix that (easier said than done) he has an important spot on the team.  If not then I fail to see a role on the team for him. I can see why the Twins don't want to give up on him but Ober and Coulombe are better options IMO.  Maybe Coulombe isn't set for long relief work but I always underestimate the guy and he has been pretty solid most of the time.

Have to wonder that with Polanco not quite ready if the Twins pivoted from using that last 40 man spot for Hoffman and are going to give it to Castro.  Hoffman didn't look great this spring to me not that I saw him a lot but he also didn't look worthy of taking up a 40 man spot and making the pen less versatile for sending arms up and down.  I wish he would be willing to stay in AAA as the Twins would likely be using him at some point but I think we have enough young bullpen arms that losing him doesn't hurt that much.

Castro has had a good spring and the Twins played him like a starter through the Spring. Most of his hits were hard contact and he hit his fair share of HR's (3) but watching him he looks like a guess hitter more than a hitter with a good eye at the plate.  He had 18 K's in 47 plate attempts this spring which is nearly a 40% (38%) K rate.  That is Gallo-esque and yet the SSS .973 OPS does offset some of that noise but the .389 BABIP also says not sustainable.  Seems like a fair bit of work to do at the plate for Castro but he is an amazing athlete and if he can even maintain a .700 to .750 OPS at the MLB level would be an excellent utility player.

I think Jullien is a much better bat than Castro but also likely a negative defensively at 2nd so I can see why they would want to start with Castro.  Castro better hope he can hit or the Twins have better options IMO. Hopefully all these moves work out well and the Twins win a lot of games early.

[wabene]

22 minutes ago, Dman said:

Hoffman didn't look great this spring to me not that I saw him a lot but he also didn't look worthy of taking up a 40 man spot and making the pen less versatile for sending arms up and down. 

👍

[Doctor Gast]

I really can't say I'm surprised but I'm really really disappointed. Unfortunately Baldelli doesn't share the same definition of long relief as mine. My definition of true long relief is the extension of the rotation where 1 SP is not able to complete 5 innings and another SP comes in & pitches 3-5 innings on a regular basis. The mentality of long relief should the same as the SP and that's to win the game. And someone who in a pinch, can spot start. Baldelli's idea of long relief is a glorified low leverage short RP, pitching 2 innings at a time, once in awhile.

I saw them pitch Maeda in a relief role. (intentionally or unintentionally) He had difficulty adapting his 1st inning which IMO put the nail in Ober's coffin. Ober said he'd do anything to come up with the club, why wasn't he tried to come in after a SP to see how well he fared. If had fared well he could have been plugged into long relief on a regular basis of 3-5 innings & chances to win games for the club. Ober pitched well enough not to be sent down to AAA, and Sands isn't good enough to be on the club.

Castro will be an asset to the club, with his versatility, glove & LH INF bat. He should be given ample time at 2B until Polanco comes back. Farmer is our best 2B sub but with Miranda's shoulder & he's our best sub at SS, he'd be busy at those positions. IMO Castro is behind Farmer at 2B.

[Beast]

Burning Ober’s limited innings in AAA is just a gross mismanagement of resources.  You could easily find the innings for him here while keeping him “stretched out.”.  He’s never been someone who goes deep into games.

Bad decision.  Ball guys overthinking it.

[Danchat]

I wouldn’t be concerned with Sands making the team, his spot is going to be the one that they rotate relievers to AAA and back. Probably why Hoffman didn’t make the team over him, since he has no options.

[Nashvilletwin]

Great summary - thanks!

You asked about opening day starting lineup.  If we’d like to maximise our winning probability, here’s my take:

1. Buxton (DH)

2. Julien (2B)

3. Correa (SS)

4. Miranda (1B)

5. Kepler (RF)

6. Larnach (LF

7. Farmer (3B)

8. Vasquez (C)

9. Gordon (CF)

Bench players: Jeffers, Gallo, Taylor and Solano.

Rotation: Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Mahle

Bullpen: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala, Maeda, Moran, and Pagan or Sands

Oops, Julien isn’t even on the team, right?  Right, but at this moment, this is the best lineup we could field - assuming, of course, we care more about winning than reputations, $’s, major league tolling, and egos.  Yeah, that’s too big of an assumption.