Projecting the 2023 AL Central

[Ted Schwerzler]

The American League Central will be a three-team race for the 2023 season. After the Cleveland Guardians took the crown in 2022, it will be on the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox to chase down the champs. How will the dust settle?
 

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli is undoubtedly looking to right the ship this year after two straight losing seasons. Minnesota last appeared in the postseason during the Covid-shortened 2020 season. 

To chase down Terry Francona’s Cleveland squad, the Twins will need to be better in scoring situations and find greater health. Both things tend to be unrelated on a per-season basis, and there is plenty of reason to believe Carlos Correa can get Minnesota back on top. 

So, how does the division go? Here’s the way I see it:

1. Minnesota Twins 92-70 (88-74)
Last season the Twins were a sub-.500 team, but their Pythagorean total had them at 82 wins. That tends to be more predictive of year-over-year success, and this team is better. Correa is back, and Joey Gallo is a great addition, even if he doesn’t return to career norms as a hitter. Michael A. Taylor is the best backup Byron Buxton has ever had, and Pablo Lopez makes a much more significant difference for this team than Luis Arraez.

Minnesota should employ the best defensive outfield in baseball, and they have a chance to show off substantial depth throughout the season. Bailey Ober was the team’s third starter last year and likely will head to Triple-A. Additions like Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano provide flexibility alongside Nick Gordon, and barring catastrophic injuries again this year; the Twins are for real.

The club needs both Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff to be healthy, but the level of desperation on both fronts is not substantial, with players like Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis all waiting in the wings.

2. Cleveland Guardians 90-72 (88-74)
The Guardians didn’t do much this offseason, but when you’re the reigning champs, can you blame them? They’ve been a pitching factory forever, but while Shane Bieber may still be an ace, neither Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac, nor Aaron Civale is. They’ve got a good-not-great rotation, and that should be enough to get it done.

Josh Bell is a fine addition at first base, but his production has been all over the place every year. I’m not a big Mike Zunino believer, but he probably represents an offensive upgrade behind the dish. Andres Gimenez and Jose Ramirez remain legit, but as always, the outfield should be a concern.

Cleveland will give Minnesota a run for their money, but the roster depth matters this season.

3. Chicago White Sox 81-81 (79-83)
I want to believe in the White Sox, and ridding themselves of the Tony La Russa plague is a very good thing. Pedro Grifol takes over a roster with upside, but the floor could be very ugly. Luis Robert might have Buxton upside, but he’s yet to find a way to be healthy. Moving Andrew Vaughn into the infield helps, but expecting Andrew Benintendi to replicate a career-best OPS seems lofty.

Lance Lynn is a good starter, and Dylan Cease might win a Cy Young, but there’s more than enough uncertainty behind them. Mike Clevinger is cleared, but a health risk, and Lucas Giolito has not been the same pitcher. Liam Hendriks won’t anchor the bullpen any time soon, and clubhouse leader Jose Abreu is now looking to win a World Series with the Astros.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the White Sox won the division, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they left it as a two-team race.

4. Kansas City Royals 66-96 (64-98)
The bottom two spots of the division could go to either the Tigers or Royals, albeit it would be a shock if anyone else entered that realm. Mike Matheny is out, and Matt Quatraro is in. A change in management may help, but the reality is that talent still needs to improve for this club.

Bobby Witt Jr. certainly could be a star, and Brady Singer has come into his own, but there needs to be more around them to make a difference. I’d love to see Zack Greinke reach 3,000 strikeouts this season, and if that’s the highlight of the year, it would be a good one. M.J. Melendez will get run other places as Salvador Perez remains the backstop, but this organization needs more pieces.

Kansas City is more ready than the Tigers, but not by much.

5. Detroit Tigers 64-98 (65-97)
Last season the Tigers expected more from their up-and-coming prospects. Spencer Torkelson was supposed to be a lock to produce, and Riley Greene needed to be a dynamic outfielder. The former never got going, and the latter got injured before he could. Both should see a rebound in the year ahead.

Torkelson is too good not to make adjustments this year. Greene is healthy and has had a strong spring. Detroit will have talent in the lineup as they tour the league during Miguel Cabrera’s swan song, but the pitching is a serious problem. Tarik Skubal is likely out for the year and as good as Matt Manning looked at moments, the ghost of Matthew Boyd is expected to be featured prominently.

Detroit should be among the worst teams in baseball, and when you can’t pitch, that should be relatively unsurprising.

How do you see the division shaking out? What do you agree or disagree with? Leave COMMENTS below. 

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[Vanimal46]

You should call up John Bonnes while he’s in Vegas and place some bets! 

Vegas over/under is 83.5 wins for the Twins. I’d bet the over on that, and hammer the under on your prediction of 92. Pitching and defense has become the identity of the team. I’m still concerned about the offense…

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I’m right with you on these predictions.  I have faith that the improved pitching can get us to 90+ wins and that the Guardians will be right there with us.  I think that ultimately our depth will be the difference. The White Sox couldn’t be less predictable.  I think their ceiling is probably 90 wins, but their floor might be 90 losses.  I think they will miss Jose Abreu and his magic RBI machine much more than they think they will.  Hate to see him go to the Astros though.  The Tigers and the Royals are bad enough that I almost find myself rooting for them to win some more games.  They could get hot for a few games but there is just no depth there whatsoever.  Strikeout #3K should be a nice highlight for the future hall of fame pitcher Zach Greinke, but I’m not seeing the highlight out there for the Tigers.  Ouch.  

[wsnydes]

55 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

You should call up John Bonnes while he’s in Vegas and place some bets! 

Vegas over/under is 83.5 wins for the Twins. I’d bet the over on that, and hammer the under on your prediction of 92. Pitching and defense has become the identity of the team. I’m still concerned about the offense…

Even if the offense isn't an issue, 92 still seems on the optimistic side.  Possible?  Certainly.  Likely?  I don't think so.

Agreed on hammering the under on that prediction!

[FlyingFinn]

45 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Vegas over/under is 83.5 wins for the Twins. I’d bet the over on that, and hammer the under on your prediction of 92. Pitching and defense has become the identity of the team. I’m still concerned about the offense…

We had better win a lot of 2-1 games early as I don't see where the offense is going to shine against the better teams. I was dreaming of Gallo and Buxton in the OF defensively but they are going to be at 1B and DH to start the year. Miranda - I had him working hard on his defense at 3B but he hasn't been able to play there yet this year. We will be putting Gordon, Larnach, Solano, Farmer, and Garlick/Castro in some key situations early.

I think your win projections for the entire division are high. The more difficult schedule will hurt the entire division. Buxton as full-time DH to start the year puts Taylor in the lineup much more and puts guys with minor injuries (like Miranda) on the bench instead of playing DH. I have lowered my win total projection from 85 to 81 because of my concern for our offensive production. That could still win this division.

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Even if the offense isn't an issue, 92 still seems on the optimistic side.  Possible?  Certainly.  Likely?  I don't think so.

Agreed on hammering the under on that prediction!

We would need a lot of things to go in the Twins favor to win 90+. I feel pretty comfortable predicting 85-88 wins this year. The Guardians get the Francona bump and remain AL Central champs… The White Sox have a sneaky good rotation. If their core of players ever puts it together they could be a threat too. 

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

We would need a lot of things to go in the Twins favor to win 90+. I feel pretty comfortable predicting 85-88 wins this year. The Guardians get the Francona bump and remain AL Central champs… The White Sox have a sneaky good rotation. If their core of players ever puts it together they could be a threat too. 

Agreed.  Health is probably on top of that list of things needing to go right.  I like them for 85 wins.  

[JD-TWINS]

I like 92 win total!

The staff is a bit above average. Starters are more talented (durability?) than Pen, but if a couple guys step up we could be excellent there as well.

Larnach - Gordon - Farmer - Polanco - Vazquez - Buxton - Correa - Miranda - Kiriloff can all hit……

Gordon/Farmer/Jeffers/Solano/Taylor/Gallo & Kepler can all be productive when facing pitchers throwing from opposite side. I don’t understand the concern about our offense.

 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins improved their depth and adding Pablo Lopez will be a good thing. The variables for the Twins team are likely greater than for any other team due to the specter of injuries (Kirilloff, Polanco, Miranda, Buxton, Larnach, and Kepler) and hoped for bounces (Jeffers, Gallo, Kepler). That is just on the position side. Losing the fire from the offense (Arraez) is tough, but a move worth taking to acquire a really good pitcher. Trade of good players are always risky and create openings for dispute as did the trade of Arraez. Making that decision is surely difficult (Jose Berrios) or choosing not to as well (Sano, Buxton, etc.).

Twins win the AL Central Division with 83 wins and this may be because of a tie-breaker with Cleveland. I think Chicago wins 82 games. The AL Central is improved and I will be surprised if there are as many lopsided results between the teams as in past seasons. 

The decisions made in late July will decide the division. I guessing we see one trade and win a playoff round .... or more.

[rusty boots]

For a team that has had 3 80+  win seasons and 2 playoff appearences (1 being covid shortened) since 2011 Twins fans sure know how to be cocky and win the preseason championship each year! 

[jmlease1]

I think there's 3 teams that are competing for the division this season (Cle, Chi, MN) and two teams that are not (KC & Det).

I don't know how much there really is to separate the three at the top right now, but I think I would tip Cle & MN just a bit of Chi. I think the ChiSox didn't do a lot to improve the team this season (addition by subtraction in LaRussa will help, but replacing Abreu's bat with Benintendi is asking for a lot of improvement on the defensive side to make up for the lesser production) and their depth remains relatively poor.

Cleveland is a really interesting question. they probably still need another bat (Zunino doesn't do much for me either) because if any of their young guys regresses it could get thin fast. I did like the Bell signing for them; it's the sort of move the should have been doing for the past couple of years to shore up the offense. they have one of the best managers in baseball, but also overperformed their pythagorean levels last year, were elite in 1-run games, and had the fewest missed games to injury last season. Some of that is luck, and I don't like betting on luck.

Twins have a deeper and better rotation, better depth, and a more settled bullpen than the team that led the division for most of the season in 2022. The defense should also be better. The offense should be as good, but it's a little hard to say considering how ruined by injuries the team was last season. Injuries sent this team from being a quality division contender for most of the season to the worst team in baseball the last month or so. If they have average health this season, they'll be there in the end. 

[Tyler from Oregon]

I feel like these projections are spot on. Of course, that said, the Sox could easily figure it out and win 90+ games and Cleveland's pitching could take a step backwards and they end up under .500. We shall see!

[chpettit19]

Twins- 87 wins
Guardians- 85 wins
White Sox- 83 wins
Royals- 72 wins
Tigers 65 wins

[miracleb]

Huh?  Triston McKenzie is a stud and I will predict now he will be in the Cy Young conversation this year.  Cleveland's top two are going to be trouble.....we need to hope the Twin's "bottom 3" are considerably better than Cleveland's "bottom 3!"

[davidborton]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Twins- 87 wins
Guardians- 85 wins
White Sox- 83 wins
Royals- 72 wins
Tigers 65 wins

Guardians, 88W

Twins, 82W

WSox, 80W

Royals, 78W

Tigers, 66W

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, davidborton said:

Guardians, 88W

Twins, 82W

WSox, 80W

Royals, 78W

Tigers, 66W

Dang, I thought people were going to think I was high on the Royals!

[sweetmusicviola16]

92 wins? Not with this offense.

[gunnarthor]

Cleveland wins the central, Sox come  in second. I think the twins will finish below .500 again and we will be sellers at the deadline, making the team a bit worse and improving draft position. I just don't like the pitching staff and health could be a killer. 

[minman1982]

I think the thing that will separate the 2023 Twins from the 2022 addition will be the starting pitching. The acquisition of Lopez, Ober's great spring, and guys like Varland waiting in the wings gives me hope that this can be a good to great rotation. When the Twins are healthy, they are both offensively and defensively superior to both Cleveland and Chicago. The big if is can they stay healthy. 

I would put both the Twins and Cleveland in the 85-90 win category. I am not a big believer in the White Sox. They have the same injury questions that the Twins have with less depth. I think this is really a two team division and give the Sox 75-80 wins. Detroit and Kansas City will be so far behind it doesn't matter where they are at. Both are probably among the five worst teams in baseball right now.

[Peter]

I got twins over 84.5 wins /+185 to win division. Agree with think they win 88-92 with additions they nade/improved lineup/pitching this team is in Win now mode. Don’t sleep on twins this year! It’s going to be exciting/intense season!!! Can’t wait for season to start!!! Win twins!!!!

[rambis26]

I don't understand Twins fans who come on this site with anything other than optimism.  The Twins starting pitching is unquestionably improved from last year, even if Mahle's velocity does not return and/or Maeda shows his age.  The bullpen will be improved if they simply pitch the whole year the way they pitched in the second half of last year.  The defense has been vastly improved, and somewhat injury proofed, which will only help the pitching look even better.  And then there is the offense.  While I can understand the argument that it has not improved, with a relatively normal injury year, the offense will improve simply by getting our best players more at bats while healthy.  With the platoons that we could implement when injuries or struggles do happen, and with the experience our young players (Gordon, Buxton, Larnach, etc) got last year, it would be reasonable to expect some improvement.  Finally, with the depth we have assembled, the quality of our lineup when players do end up injured in MUCH improved.  It is pretty easy to envision this team based on the above to approach 90 wins.

I think these are reasonable assumptions without being too optimistic.  Now, if you add some optimism to the equation and pencil Buxton in for 450 AB, assume Kepler bounces back after a terrible year last year, assume Kiriloff can reach expectations, and expect a relatively healthy year for everyone, I do not think 92-95 wins is out of the realm of possibility.  Whether that is likely or not is debatable, but I prefer to optimistically root for my team.  Lets get this season started!!!!

[weitz41]

The balanced schedule and the Twins offence make me think 90+ wins is a stretch and probably is for any AL central team.

I think the Twins take the division with 86-88 wins. There is quality depth at every position + guys like Lewis, Julien and Paddack possibly joining the team in the second half.

I don't see Cleveland having literally no injuries and Chicago have as many. 84-86 wins for both of them.

I think Detroit will be better then expected. Just about every one of their players had one of worst seasons of their career last year. 75ish wins.

Royals have 4-5 veteran's and a AAA team 68 wins. There's some really good young players on this team. In a couple seasons this team I think will be in the top 2. Just need some seasoning. 

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Cleveland wins the central, Sox come  in second. I think the twins will finish below .500 again and we will be sellers at the deadline, making the team a bit worse and improving draft position. I just don't like the pitching staff and health could be a killer. 

If this happens it will be time to clean house, top to bottom.

[TwinsDr2021]

20 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Larnach - Gordon - Farmer - Polanco - Vazquez - Buxton - Correa - Miranda - Kiriloff can all hit……

Gordon/Farmer/Jeffers/Solano/Taylor/Gallo & Kepler can all be productive when facing pitchers throwing from opposite side. I don’t understand the concern about our offense.

 

Well Polanco and AK are on the disabled list with an unknown return, Saying Vazquez can hit is a huge stretch (Not saying he is bad but his is no Realmuto, Murphy, Kirk, or Smith), I hope Larnach can his OPS+ last year was 104, Gordon has had one terrible year an one decent year, Farmer splits last year were awesome against LHP and terrible against RHP. Miranda was good as a rookie and hopefully will continue to get better. This leaves two guys that should no doubt be at the top of league in hitting (Corrrea and Buxton) and one of them hasn't played over 92 games since 2017. The guys you mentioned being productive when facing pitchers throwing from the opposite side are being forced into roles where that isn't the only pitchers they will be facing.

This isn't predicting doom and gloom for the offense but if you don't understand where people's concern is coming from, well you aren't looking.

The good thing is that everybody in the Twins division has similiar concerns and this doesn't mean a few of these players won't step up and out perform expectations or surprise us, but another injury or slow starts by Buxton or Correa and the others just performing to career norms, well than this offense could look very similiar to last years. Now I believe this years pitching will be WAY, WAY better than last years and will be able to cover for an average offense and still win the division regardless. But if for some reason things don't end up that way and this FO and Manager are around for 24, I won't be.

[TwinsDr2021]

48 minutes ago, rambis26 said:

I don't understand Twins fans who come on this site with anything other than optimism. 

Most people are predicting around 10 game improvement over last year and competing for a division title and this is after finishing 20 and 14 games behind the division the last two years and that isn't enough optimism?

Buxton had the 2nd most plate appearances in his career last year with 382 and the most ever was 511 6 seasons ago (2017). It isn't optimism that he will get 450 this year it is pie in the sky. I really, really hope he plays in 140 plus games but I am not basing my prediction on something he never has done. 

But you are correct if most of the players on the Twins play close to or better than their best season ever they could easily win 92, heck even 100 plus games this year.

 

[Whitey333]

I'm predicting around 82-83 wins which may still be good enough to win the division.  I'm also predicting they finally won a playoff game but don't advance past the first round.  This team looks better on paper but is still cemented in too many ifs.  If the starting staff holds up.  If the bullpen holds up.  If our offense can somehow hold up.  If our manager manages well. If the injured players play and if they perform well.  I'm cautiously optimistic.  Go Twins

[Riverbrian]

1. I'm picking the Twins this year because the depth should be able to keep the Wolves away. 

2. I think the White Sox are a strong candidate for a rebound

3. I don't like Cleveland's depth. They were pretty healthy last year. If they are not healthy this year... especially on the mound... I can see them not being able to over come it. 

4. If I had to pick a sleeper... it would be the Royals. Lots of young talent bubbling up. Most Likely too much young talent to carry them but the Royals have talent and depth of young talent and I think they will be a tough beat while they are getting beat.   

5. The Tigers... will be have a lot of balls in the lottery next year. I've been shocked before... the Tigers in contention would be a hair stand on end shock.  

Side Note: I will go on record because I wan't to go on record.  After many years of being down on the Angels because of their being over reliant upon a few big namers year after year. I am going to predict the Angels making the playoffs this year, being the surprise team force in the West.

They are finally addressing their biggest problem and deepening the lineup beyond Ohtani and Trout. I think it's going to pay off. Bullpen is their current primary issue and that is potentially a big one. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Injuries to Buxton, Polanco, and Kiriloff are not the things that worry me.  Sure we are better with them healthy, but the Twins have done everything the could to mitigate the injury risk of those three by bringing in higher-floor backups.

I am more concerned with Miranda, Gordon, Ryan, Ober.  The risk of them regressing from last year is real.  Put Maeda and Mahle on that list due to injury returns as well. (Love the depth all you want, but it is mainly unproven).

If Miranda, Gordon, Ryan are able to repeat last year, Maeda and Mahle come back something close to their former selves, good things will happen.  If not, it could collapse pretty quickly, 

[Minny505]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Most people are predicting around 10 game improvement over last year...

 

I would estimate the average of record predictions on TD is around 85. That seems like a realistic expectation.

As stated in the OP, Pythag had them as an 82 win team last year. BsR had them as an 83 win team (IIRC).

85 is a 3 win improvement. That seems cautiously optimistic, but deservedly so. 

I've learned from observing Unanimuous AI (the prediction company) predictions that crowdsourced sports predictions are far more accurate than "experts" and even most algorithmic AI prediction systems to date. 

So I'm taking the over as well with an expectation of 85 wins. Cautiously optimistic.

[Minny505]

The thing about the Guardians in 2022 is they were one of the healthiest teams in MLB. They had so few days missed to the IL.

Is that luck or is it repeatable? Most likely luck.

The Twins were the most injured team in the league by some measurements. The White Sox weren't far behind. Both were in the top 3 by pretty much all measurements. 

Reversion to the mean for all three teams likely results in a Twins divisional win, but also bunches them all more closely together in the low to mid 80s for wins, meaning that luck card is likely to be the difference maker.