Initial Baseball America Mock Draft: Twins Take Prep Hitter

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins made the biggest jump in the first-ever draft lottery. As a result, they'll draft in the Top 5 - not only higher than they expected, but this also gives them more money to spend on their draft class. How is the draft projected to shake out in four months? Carlos Collazo takes his first shot in Baseball America's first mock draft of the season.

As you're scrolling through the story, you're going to read one of the most Twins-iest things you could think of when Collazo says this, "Currently it feels like a good year to have a top-four pick." 

Of course it does. The Twins fall right outside of that range and is there anything more Minnesotan than that!?

But don't overreact just yet. If you've been following college baseball at all to this point, you're probably pretty familiar with LSU's Dylan Crews and Florida's Wyatt Langford separating themselves from the pack as hitters and LSU's Paul Skenes (ascending) and Tennessee's Chase Dollander (coming back) in their own tier as pitchers. It should be relatively easy right now to project them as the first four picks as Collazo does.

This is where I remind you that funny things - like Kumar Rocker getting drafted third out of nowhere last year - tend to happen. And, worse case scenario, nothing funny happens and the Twins have their pick of the litter outside of the top four in a what is considered to be a very strong draft.

In the event those four are gone, Baseball America has the Twins selecting Indiana prep outfielder Max Clark. Collazo says of Clark:

Quote

This is the highest the Twins have picked since 2017 when they took Royce Lewis with the first overall pick in the draft. Clark was the first name I considered here, but I also thought about Walker Jenkins and college infielders Jacob Gonzalez and Brayden Taylor. I think Clark has the best combination of defensive profile, track record of hitting, and all-around tools so he is the pick for me. I’ve heard some good things about his swing over the offseason so that’s maybe another small factor in the pick.

The thing about drafting fifth in a "four-man draft" and settling for Clark is that Clark is... a stud. Which parts of his scouting profile don't you like:

• Vanderbilt commit (ok, you might not love that... some times Vandy guys are hard to sign. But they're also one of the best programs in all of the country.
• Plus to plus-plus hitting ability 
• Plus-plus running ability
• No doubt center fielder with plus-plus arm
• Excellent make-up
• Projectable power

That's a not-yet-19-year-old who is going to be a Top 100 prospect for the next handful of years.

Projecting how much power is the biggest question make surrounding Clark. If it comes, you're looking at a middle-of-the lineup hitter who plays premium defense at a premium position.

Jacoby Ellsbury is a comparison that you may hear on Clark. Aside from one year where he hit 32 home runs, Ellsbury did most damage with his legs, stealing 50 or more bases three times. It wasn't a highly-decorated career, but Ellsbury was Rookie of the Year, a one-time All-Star, Golden Glover and Silver Slugger. He twice received MVP votes. 

At any rate, Clark projects to be a difference-maker.

It's also important to remember that college players get a head-start on their season - and to make an impression in their draft season. Clark still has plenty of time to play himself out of the Twins range. 

Which other players would you like to see play their way into the Twins draft discussion?

---

You'll be able to see how things change through the mock draft season.

TWINS MOCK DRAFTS
Baseball America	BA Staff	Mayo	TwinsDaily	McDaniel	Callis	Law
Max Clark, OF, Indiana HS (V1.0 3/16	Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU (V1.0 3/2) STORY

View full article

[old nurse]

There is plenty of time for prospects to elevate, or top 4 to fail. 

[tony&rodney]

Clark has similarity to Corbin Carroll, which is just fine with me. Max Clark could be a tremendous pick. Whatever, picking at #5 should be a win win.

[Dman]

Personally while I don't know a ton about Clark if the top two pitchers don't fall he is my preferred pick.  I have read a couple of places now that some scouts don't see him as a top 5 pick? Some scouts are not as high on the hit tool and  don't think his stroke has power projection.  As Jeremey said above maybe once HS season gets going perceptions will change. 

I like the pick because the Twins don't have an elite defensive centerfielder in the system that I can see and with Clark having 5 tool potential that is just the type of guy you take at the top of the draft.  No guarantee Clark turns out as well as Carroll did but Carroll dropped to the mid first round when he was drafted (due to poor power projection) and looks like he could be a perennial all star player. I just think Clark is a really good player for what the Twins need and I think he reaches that 5 tool potential.  He is a perfect fit for the next wave of young hitters the Twins have.  Several which will be in the GCL and A ball this year.

I really like the top 4 guys as well but I disagree this is a 4 player top tier.  I think is a very strong top 10 and the next 15 picks after that have some good quality as well.  Even if the Twins were still at 13 they would have gotten a good player as this draft is just that strong IMO.

I hope Clark is the pick.  He is my perfect pick for the Twins given the draft falls that way.

[Doctor Gast]

My top priority is catcher. I believe Wyatt Langford profiles better as a catcher, if his OF glove drags him down a little to 5th. I'd take him if he's willing to transition back to catcher. If we don't land him then Clark is fine with me, we aren't pressed at CF. He appears to me like a Royce Lewis type. So we can wait for him. Then I'd like focus on (catchers) Cole Carrigg or Kyle Teel in our next pick.

I also like Skenes but I heard that he's easy to read. So he might have difficulty with MLB hitters.

 

[Jocko87]

This is the time to get the potential ace, heres hoping one of them is there at #5.  The thing about the #5 pick is that any college player they take they also have to look at where they fit within the current roster projections as we should expect them within the 1-2 year range.  The ace would be the best for this but barring that it would almost have to be a college outfielder if they are thinking nearer term.

I do like the high school angle if they don't project someone to be fast help.  That prospect could anchor the next wave 3-4 years down the road.

This is also a time where having a good relationship with Boras and Boras clients could be mysteriously handy.   Lasts years wild card, Rocker, is a Boras guy (interesting Mets angle also).  Both pitchers could very easily be Boras clients and we know he's not afraid to do whats needed to get his client what they are looking for.  Unless they are set on 1-1, going somewhere on the rise where you can be in the league in 12 months would have to be appealing. 

[jkcarew]

IMO, there’s no such thing as a high-schooler with a “good track record of hitting”. Especially for a Midwestern kid.

Does it work out sometimes. Certainly. But projecting the hit tool when all they’ve faced is HS competition, with the occasional showcase? More misses than hits, even way up at 5. I’d much rather have a top-end college hitter or top-end college pitcher at #5. Maybe, I’m blinded by the fact that I prefer another high-floor hitter or pitcher arriving quickly…while Buxton and Correa are more likely to be nearer their peek value…rather than the highest ceiling guy arriving significantly later.

[Fatbat]

I can see Clark in the top 4 if he knocks the cover off the ball this spring. The twins need to draft pitching, pitching, pitching and a catcher. and then more pitching…. 

[jmlease1]

If Max Clark is the best player available at 5...sure. That's what I want from the Twins at this pick: best player available. Yes, there's some system needs at various positions, but with a top 5 pick I want them to take the best, most talented player available regardless of position. You can try to address system shortages in later rounds, but you should never reach for a player, or talk yourself into a player because you don't have much in the pipeline at that position.

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

My top priority is catcher. I believe Wyatt Langford profiles better as a catcher, if his OF glove drags him down a little to 5th. I'd take him if he's willing to transition back to catcher. 

Langford's bat is going to carry him. I'd say there's a slim-to-none chance that any team would even consider slowing his bat down by years by trying to develop him as a catcher. 

It would be the exact opposite in reality. If he were catching now, a team would draft him and convert him to outfield to accelerate the bat a la Bryce Harper.

[chpettit19]

57 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

If Max Clark is the best player available at 5...sure. That's what I want from the Twins at this pick: best player available. Yes, there's some system needs at various positions, but with a top 5 pick I want them to take the best, most talented player available regardless of position. You can try to address system shortages in later rounds, but you should never reach for a player, or talk yourself into a player because you don't have much in the pipeline at that position.

 

Yes! Best player available. Especially this high in the draft. I actually think it's the route you should go for the first 5 rounds, but it gets a little more difficult with signing bonuses and all that as the draft progresses. But first round pick, especially a top 5 pick, has always got to be best player available. I don't care if they have 5 Byron Buxtons (talent, not health-wise) lined up at CF in the system. If the best player is another Byron Buxton you draft them. Just collect as much talent as you can and figure it out from there.

[Doctor Gast]

26 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Langford's bat is going to carry him. I'd say there's a slim-to-none chance that any team would even consider slowing his bat down by years by trying to develop him as a catcher. 

It would be the exact opposite in reality. If he were catching now, a team would draft him and convert him to outfield to accelerate the bat a la Bryce Harper.

If people (including the Twins) put all their stock only in his bat then we won't have a chance at him. And I'd not be disappointed.

[Cory Engelhardt]

This would be a homerun if it falls like this. Any of these top 5 being there would be OUTSTANDING.

[Otaknam]

I prefer a highly successful college pitcher with a lively fastball and solid control. Dollander or Skenes if available. Twins still need a number one starter. But a potential five tool position player is a good fallback and seems to be how the FO drafts anyway. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

If Max Clark is the best player available at 5...sure. That's what I want from the Twins at this pick: best player available. Yes, there's some system needs at various positions, but with a top 5 pick I want them to take the best, most talented player available regardless of position. You can try to address system shortages in later rounds, but you should never reach for a player, or talk yourself into a player because you don't have much in the pipeline at that position.

 

There is so much to choose from at #5.  We absolutely will not be reaching as we have a pick at 34 and 49. Waldrep is the 3rd highest rated pitcher and has ace potential.  The kid that I am highest on is Jacob Wilson, the son of Jack Wilson. He is another SS that has plus hit tools and stuck out only 7 times last SEASON. Its a very deep draft and we have thee best scouting director.  Im confident that we will come away with 3 studs in the top 49. 

[2wins87]

If the top 4 does play out like that, for me there would still be an interesting choice between Clark, the next SEC standout Jacob Gonzalez, and the next potential frontline pitcher Hurston Waldrep.

Gonzalez has shown less present power, but scouting reports I've read make it seem that it's not lack of physicality but that a few little tweaks could unleash pretty significant game power, in which case he could be every bit as good a hitter as Crews and Langford.

Similarly Waldrep's stuff is pretty much right there with Skenes and Dollander, he just gets knocked for his smaller frame which typically means more injury/reliever risk.

Of course, the odds that the top 4 actually does play out to the current consensus is always pretty low.  It's pretty easy to see one of the top 4 going for the HS bat, likely Clark, maybe Jenkins.  Two pitchers going in the top 4 might also not be super likely, since bats are just so much safer in general.

There is also plenty of potential for someone else to emerge, either for the top four or on the Twins' internal board.  Colton Ledbetter (another SEC bat) is a name that seems to be popping up now.

I have no clue what is going on in the draft room, but I've convinced myself that there is a good chance that they break the mold of going for a college bat and end up with either a HS bat or college pitcher.  It should be an exciting draft either way.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Start with this premise: The Twins have never traded for an existing ace pitcher, and are not going to trade for an existing ace pitcher.  The Twins have shown that this FO will not sign an existing free agent ace. Frankly, I understand why and I tend to agree. The high cost would handcuff the FO.  I hate trading away numerous successful Twins players, whom I have watched mature and grow and become successful (cough, cough Arraez). These players become fan favorites for a reason. Therefore the only way for this Twins' FO to get an ace, and I submit the cheapest way for any team to get an ace, is to get lucky and draft one. To do that, the previously unlucky Twins, must draft more pitchers in the earliest rounds possible, some of whom inevitably are going to get hurt and most of whom will not pan out. A number 5 draft pick for many teams should be the best player available. But the Twins already have a "28 year old best SS in the world, team leader" signed for the next 6 years plus a previous #1 draft pick at SS and last year's top pick at # 8 "best college hitter in the draft, hitting machine" at SS, and a solid supporting cast of an All-Star 2B switch hitter, and a sophomore probable masher at 3B, resulting in a log-jam at middle infield and do not need another SS/2B/3B right now. I would not want to be the best middle infielder in the 2023 draft and be selected by the Twins. What is the sense in drafting the best SS available when the Twins are going to have to trade him anyway due to the log-jam at SS? But he won't be traded for an ace pitcher, because the Twins don't do that.  I rest my case.  

[Fatbat]

18 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Start with this premise: The Twins have never traded for an existing ace pitcher, and are not going to trade for an existing ace pitcher.  The Twins have shown that this FO will not sign an existing free agent ace. Frankly, I understand why and I tend to agree. The high cost would handcuff the FO.  I hate trading away numerous successful Twins players, whom I have watched mature and grow and become successful (cough, cough Arraez). These players become fan favorites for a reason. Therefore the only way for this Twins' FO to get an ace, and I submit the cheapest way for any team to get an ace, is to get lucky and draft one. To do that, the previously unlucky Twins, must draft more pitchers in the earliest rounds possible, some of whom inevitably are going to get hurt and most of whom will not pan out. A number 5 draft pick for many teams should be the best player available. But the Twins already have a "28 year old best SS in the world, team leader" signed for the next 6 years plus a previous #1 draft pick at SS and last year's top pick at # 8 "best college hitter in the draft, hitting machine" at SS, and a solid supporting cast of an All-Star 2B switch hitter, and a sophomore probable masher at 3B, resulting in a log-jam at middle infield and do not need another SS/2B/3B right now. I would not want to be the best middle infielder in the 2023 draft and be selected by the Twins. What is the sense in drafting the best SS available when the Twins are going to have to trade him anyway due to the log-jam at SS? But he won't be traded for an ace pitcher, because the Twins don't do that.  I rest my case.  

Drafting an 18yo hs SS doesn’t exactly interfere with C4 and his probable hof career. The likely hood that 3 SP are drafted in the top 4 is basically nil and there are definitely 3 SP in the top 10 so just because the “experts” say that one of them is 8,9 or10 doesn’t mean that drafting him at 5 is a reach. Its no different than drafting Lee just because he fell to us means that the other teams didn’t pick future allstars. Clark may be future hof but nobody’s knows. It does seem prudent that getting in the top 5 is our best chance at getting an ace sp.

[Mike Sixel]

No complaints about trading hitting prospects for pitchers if you always go best available, as if the number five and ten players are that separated that is obvious all the time. So many here complaining about trading prospects..... And also demanding not taking the second best player.......

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Start with this premise: The Twins have never traded for an existing ace pitcher, and are not going to trade for an existing ace pitcher.  The Twins have shown that this FO will not sign an existing free agent ace. Frankly, I understand why and I tend to agree. The high cost would handcuff the FO.  I hate trading away numerous successful Twins players, whom I have watched mature and grow and become successful (cough, cough Arraez). These players become fan favorites for a reason. Therefore the only way for this Twins' FO to get an ace, and I submit the cheapest way for any team to get an ace, is to get lucky and draft one. To do that, the previously unlucky Twins, must draft more pitchers in the earliest rounds possible, some of whom inevitably are going to get hurt and most of whom will not pan out. A number 5 draft pick for many teams should be the best player available. But the Twins already have a "28 year old best SS in the world, team leader" signed for the next 6 years plus a previous #1 draft pick at SS and last year's top pick at # 8 "best college hitter in the draft, hitting machine" at SS, and a solid supporting cast of an All-Star 2B switch hitter, and a sophomore probable masher at 3B, resulting in a log-jam at middle infield and do not need another SS/2B/3B right now. I would not want to be the best middle infielder in the 2023 draft and be selected by the Twins. What is the sense in drafting the best SS available when the Twins are going to have to trade him anyway due to the log-jam at SS? But he won't be traded for an ace pitcher, because the Twins don't do that.  I rest my case.  

You make some points about the Twins not signing a top pitcher but they did trade for a little lefty once, Johan Santana. Now if you mean someone who is currently a top arm, then we must agree that very few are ever traded unless they approach their walk year such as Berrios. Maybe the Twins trade Lee and Lewis plus an arm for Corbin Burnes and then sign him to an extension. I wouldn't give up on any scenario except for the Twins paying the top price for a free agent pitcher. 

Thus we go back to the boring .... sign the best player available. It may be a pitcher, a college hitter, or a high school bat. That is all we know right now. 

It is worth remembering that the Twins have tried drafting pitchers in the first round in previous years. It is pretty tough to guarantee success of pitchers. Recently the LA Angels have drafted a ton of pitchers with some luck, but the odds are skewed against that strategy.