Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Right Field

[Nick Nelson]

Defying expectations, Max Kepler is back. It appears he'll be Minnesota's Opening Day starter in right field for a seventh consecutive season.

Will this be his Target Field swan song, or his triumphant reawakening? 

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Starter: Max Kepler
Likely Backup: Joey Gallo
Depth: Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Larnach, Kyle Garlick
Prospects: Matt Wallner, Jose Rodriguez, Kala'i Rosario

THE GOOD
Even during a 2022 season that rated as the worst of his career, and had him somberly reflecting on whether he picked the right sport, Kepler's underlying skill and baseball prowess were easy to see.

As usual, he roamed right field with excellence, ranging all over to track down fly balls and line drives most peers cannot reach. The standard for RF, at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum, gives Kepler a big advantage as a stellar athlete with a glove that could play in center. 

He ranked fifth among MLB right fielders in Defensive Runs Saved with 10, and was in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average. FanGraphs pegged him as the second-most valuable defender at the position, behind Arizona's Daulton Varsho. Kepler's fielding is verifiably elite.

 

His bat has of course been a different story, but you wouldn't know it from looking at the raw batted ball metrics. Kepler's Statcast sliders are a sea of red, indicating high-end rankings on measurements like exit velocity, expected batting average, chase rate, and beyond. Kepler has a very good plate approach and he routinely makes quality contact. 

Yet, this all manifested last year in a .227/.318/.348 slash line, which – even in a depressed offensive environment – compared quite poorly against the average AL right fielder (244/.310/.407).

Analysis shows that to a large degree, Kepler creates his own bad luck with a hitting profile so predictable that opposing pitchers and defenses have learned to expertly suppress it. That said, last year his level of bad luck was off the charts. The outfielder's fortunes seem naturally likely to rebound, and the new shift limitations figure to further aid his improvement.  

This dynamic gave the Twins hope that another team might fancy Kepler as a buy-low candidate worth ponying up for. Alas, they didn't get an offer that moved them, so the front office held on, and will hope to cash in on their own bounce-back threat, whose return alongside the Gallo signing creates an abundant level of corner outfield depth. 

Taking Kepler's history here out of the equation, I think that if the Twins were to trade for a player sharing Kepler's attributes – an underperforming great athlete in his prime with one more year under contract followed by team options – most fans would see it as a smart gamble.

THE BAD
Among the top five players we have listed on the RF depth chart atop this article, here are their final OPS+ figures from the 2022 season:

• Kepler: 93
• Gallo: 79
• Taylor: 90
• Larnach: 104
• Garlick: 104

Only two modestly above-average hitters in the bunch, and they both missed most of the season due to injury. As helpful as Kepler's glove is in the outfield, his lack of offense has made him a limiting factor in the lineup. The same could potentially be true of Gallo or Taylor if they're pushed into duty. 

With so many questions elsewhere, the Twins could really use a steady and reliable producer at this bat-driven position. Since Kepler's career year in 2019, the Twins have been below-average in wOBA from right fielders every year, ranking 23rd in both of the past two. If Kepler can't snap that trend, the team is now in a realistic position to move on.

If and when that time comes, Gallo or Taylor or Larnach might not be next in line. Wallner is their reigning Minor League Player of the Year and he got a taste of the majors last September. With decent outfield range and maybe the best arm in the system, Wallner is built for right field.

Bringing lots of strikeouts and lots of power, the organization's No. 11 prospect contrasts sharply from Kepler stylistically, but it's not hard to envision him offering equal value (at a small fraction of the cost) as soon as this year. 

That is: if Wallner can break the mold of K-prone sluggers who mash in the minors but struggle to break through in the majors. The 25-year-old's development this season will have a decisive influence on the plan for this position going forward.

THE BOTTOM LINE
A changing of the guard is afoot in right field for the Twins. Kepler is one of their longest-tenured players, but the nearing end of this player-team relationship feels apparent from a number of different perspectives. 

He's entering his final guaranteed year under contract, was openly the subject of trade rumors all winter, and is now being pressed by several up-and-coming prospects as his game stagnates. 

 

For the time being, Kepler's still here. Though down and out, he's a skilled and athletic player coming off the unluckiest season of his career, with a few things due to finally break in his favor. 

If he doesn't turn it around, the Twins have a wealth of other current and future options. If he does, it could introduce create an interesting set of decisions for the front office. For as long as he's been around, Kepler is still only 30 and he has a 2024 team option for $10 million.

Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base
• Position Analysis: Third Base
• Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Position Analysis: Left Field
• Position Analysis: Center Field

View full article

[Mark G]

For how long, now, have we been told that the old school way of looking at a player, using the 3 categories that make up the triple crown, are not a true indicator of how the player is doing.  We need to look at the analytical metrics, such as the chart above here.  If they are good, we have a better indication of how a player is doing.  Yet, when all the metrics look good, and the triple crown numbers look lousy, we still say the player is regressing and should we move on.  BA isn't a true indicator of how a player is doing....... until it is.  The analytic metrics are a better way of judging how a player is doing....... until they aren't. Funny how that works.

Tongue in cheek aside, I think Max has a chance without the shift to have a stronger season, and I am rooting for him.  If he doesn't, then it may very well be time to move on, but I like his chances.  

And I have been yelled at for being old school for so long now, I don't mind anymore, so let me have it.  😉

[Jeff D.]

Good article and analysis. Kepler can turn all this around with a .260 or up year. Fans like Max. With good reason. He is solid in the field, is fast, has power and is low key. A dependable player for a fan base that still admires dependability. The guy is simply a very good right fielder and perfect for the Twins. The exception being that he cannot go opposite field and seems to start cooking with his bat when he elevates the ball some. 

Let's face it, the Twins (full lineup) has lacked a good hitting coach for a couple of seasons now and it shows. The Twins don't know what a bunt is, rarely sacrifice, and suffer from a continual musical chairs approach with the hitting order, (Thanks Professor Baldelli!). Max will benefit from the shift rule and let's hope it revives him and our team, because he is very fun to watch in the field. I can still remember when it was fun to watch him hit better. 

Twins Geezer, out!     GO TWINS!

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nick, I was curious how fast Kepler could get back into his old groove, now with the shift ban. It didn't take long, Kepler has seemed to find it early ST. Wallner has a lot of raw talent, (speed, arm & power) that needs to be refined. Because Wallner is down on the pecking order in RF so I doubt Wallner will see much time in the MLB. Which gives him a lot of time to better his read on the ball and limit his SOs. I like what I saw from Wallner in ST, Wallner could have a good chance to start in RF next year if he works his but off. We have excellent depth in RF.

[Althebum82]

Rosario has made the most of his opportunity this spring, that's for sure.

Same can be said for Kepler! 

Love your detailed analysis, Nick.

Small detail here, but I clicked on the link for Rodriguez and was taken to a BR profile for a pitcher who was in the Mets minor league system last season.  I am assuming this is not the same guy you intended to reference.

 

[roger]

Thanks, Nick.

Have said since the day they announced the 'shift' change that Max will be a different player in 2023.  Looking for him to have a fantastic year, both in the field and at the plate.

[miracleb]

The spring training numbers have been coming in regarding the shift and more balls are getting thru for hits.  Maybe a .15 rise on a player's batting average.  "Possibly" Max's increase in batting average will be more than .15........but he will still be terrible compared to the rest of the league.   The fact that the Twins were not able to trade him means that other teams see the same thing.  Now we need to hope he can "turn it around" on his own.

[nicksaviking]

Sorry, but Kepler's problems, at least last year, were not related to luck. Maybe the Exit Velocity was good, but his LD% was only 19.9%, his FB% only 34.4% and his GB% 45.7%!!!!!

That's not luck, that's using a hitting profile of a leadoff hitter who's value comes form stealing bases and doesn't even try for extra base hits. Too many groundballs isn't luck, it's poor hitting.

Even if Kepler's batting average rises because he's getting more seeing-eye singles due to the shift removal, he's still not cutting it as a corner outfielder. He needs to be driving the ball, preferably over the fence.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Jeff D. said:

Good article and analysis. Kepler can turn all this around with a .260 or up year. Fans like Max. With good reason. He is solid in the field, is fast, has power and is low key. A dependable player for a fan base that still admires dependability. The guy is simply a very good right fielder and perfect for the Twins. The exception being that he cannot go opposite field and seems to start cooking with his bat when he elevates the ball some. 

Let's face it, the Twins (full lineup) has lacked a good hitting coach for a couple of seasons now and it shows. The Twins don't know what a bunt is, rarely sacrifice, and suffer from a continual musical chairs approach with the hitting order, (Thanks Professor Baldelli!). Max will benefit from the shift rule and let's hope it revives him and our team, because he is very fun to watch in the field. I cans still remember when it was fun to watch him hit better. 

Twins Geezer, out!     GO TWINS!

Max will get a good long look in ‘23………My assumption is Gallo may start in RF when we’re up against LH pitching. Kepler gets opportunity to shine against RH pitching. Hoping he stays healthy so we get a clear look at what he can do.

A bit of power would really help….somewhere around 20HR or at least 30 doubles. Gotta produce some runs playing RF. 

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

We need to look at the analytical metrics, such as the chart above here.  If they are good, we have a better indication of how a player is doing.  Yet, when all the metrics look good, and the triple crown numbers look lousy, we still say the player is regressing and should we move on.  BA isn't a true indicator of how a player is doing....... until it is.  The analytic metrics are a better way of judging how a player is doing....... until they aren't. Funny how that works.

 

1 hour ago, Jeff D. said:

Fans like Max. With good reason. He is solid in the field, is fast, has power and is low key. A dependable player for a fan base that still admires dependability. The guy is simply a very good right fielder and perfect for the Twins.

 

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but Kepler's problems, at least last year, were not related to luck. Maybe the Exit Velocity was good, but his LD% was only 19.9%, his FB% only 34.4% and his GB% 45.7%!!!!!

These are all really good takes, but I think they show why Kepler has been such a polarizing player this off-season.  The statistics available allow for infinite perspectives based on how each person values different skills.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This has got to be one of Baldelli’s most difficult calls.  Kepler’s great glove gives him a high floor such that he doesn’t hurt the team immensely if his bat isn’t working very well - even at a slugger position, but on the other hand, sometimes the bat gets so bad that the glove just can’t make up for it.  He’s obviously the starting RF on opening day, but if things go South with his hitting, I think he’s going to get a lot fewer at bats as the season progresses. There is just too much depth behind him not to try some new players at the position. 

[TCSquad]

I went to Anaheim last summer and sat in right field. Some Angels fan had the absolute worst heckling I've ever heard directed at Max.

"Hey, Kepler! Watch out, they might hit the ball to you!"

(Spoiler; the Angels did a couple of times, and Max caught them all.)

[jmlease1]

the Kepler situation is complex. He's a fine defender in the corners and probably stretched at this point in CF, but the range and arm profile very well in RF for him to add value. But goodness he had a rotten year at the plate in so many ways. 2019 is looking very much like a fluke year, so any expectation that it's going to be repeated somehow (shift or no) should really be thrown in the trash.

I think the baseball Savant numbers are very instructive: the max exit velocity shows that Kepler can absolutely crush a ball, but the Avg exit velocity, Hard-hit %, and Barrel % shows that he just didn't do it often enough. His K rates and BB rates are fine, but when he does actually swing at a pitch and make contact he's been too inconsistent in really driving ball and doing damage.

Now, how much did the busted toe hurt Kepler even after he came back? Maybe being fully healthy plus the shift rules will help him enough to make him viable as a hitter, but I'm still concerned about his inability to make consistent hard contact. It was easy for fans to turn on Sano when he was piling up the Ks, but Kepler has been a less productive player on offense even with 500 additional ABs and Sano's last season being an utter catastrophe (12.3 Offensive bWAR vs 11.8 offensive bWAR) and took less crap for it, even though Kepler's career OPS+ is significantly less than Sano's. It may have been less irritating for some to watch Kepler bounce out to 2B, but it wasn't effective.

Kepler was absolutely overwhelmed last season by fastballs, for the first time in several years. was that injury, or was that age slowing him down? he's going to have to show he can catch up to the heat and handle sliders in the zone, because I'd bet the early book on him is going to be "no slop".

If he can't get it going again, I'm sure Wallner & Larnach would love a shot. Wallner has sort of the opposite problem of Kepler: he hammers what he hits, but might not connect enough. Is he Adam Dunn or a lefty Brent Rooker? Larnach is the better bet to me to follow on. He won't cover as much ground, but he's got a great arm for the corners and will get to more balls than people think. And healthy, Larnach can hit more consistently than either Kepler or wallner, I think.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

For how long, now, have we been told that the old school way of looking at a player, using the 3 categories that make up the triple crown, are not a true indicator of how the player is doing.  We need to look at the analytical metrics, such as the chart above here.  If they are good, we have a better indication of how a player is doing.  Yet, when all the metrics look good, and the triple crown numbers look lousy, we still say the player is regressing and should we move on.  BA isn't a true indicator of how a player is doing....... until it is.  The analytic metrics are a better way of judging how a player is doing....... until they aren't. Funny how that works.

Tongue in cheek aside, I think Max has a chance without the shift to have a stronger season, and I am rooting for him.  If he doesn't, then it may very well be time to move on, but I like his chances.  

And I have been yelled at for being old school for so long now, I don't mind anymore, so let me have it.  😉

Great post Mark. I will not yell at you for posting this. I will applaud. 

[Tyler from Oregon]

Let's say Kepler has an extremely solid and productive season, and hits like .270 with 20+ home runs. Does this team try to bring him back again next year for $10 million, or is this the end for him in a Twins uniform, no matter how this season goes?

[Jocko87]

15 minutes ago, Tyler from Oregon said:

Let's say Kepler has an extremely solid and productive season, and hits like .270 with 20+ home runs. Does this team try to bring him back again next year for $10 million, or is this the end for him in a Twins uniform, no matter how this season goes?

I would think it would be a no-brainer to bring him back at that production level.  It would also help make Gallo a flip candidate at the deadline.  Even if he was just solid .250 with some pop, $10m isn't outrageous.

But I don't know that his production will matter so much in the decision to keep him or not.  Performance of Wallner, Larnach et al. will probably be a bigger factor.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Tyler from Oregon said:

Let's say Kepler has an extremely solid and productive season, and hits like .270 with 20+ home runs. Does this team try to bring him back again next year for $10 million, or is this the end for him in a Twins uniform, no matter how this season goes?

I presume they would exercise the option and try to trade him again. (Assuming other corner OF options don't flame out.) Probably with a much more receptive market.

[Bodie]

6 hours ago, Jeff D. said:

Good article and analysis. Kepler can turn all this around with a .260 or up year. Fans like Max. With good reason. He is solid in the field, is fast, has power and is low key. A dependable player for a fan base that still admires dependability. The guy is simply a very good right fielder and perfect for the Twins. The exception being that he cannot go opposite field and seems to start cooking with his bat when he elevates the ball some. 

Let's face it, the Twins (full lineup) has lacked a good hitting coach for a couple of seasons now and it shows. The Twins don't know what a bunt is, rarely sacrifice, and suffer from a continual musical chairs approach with the hitting order, (Thanks Professor Baldelli!). Max will benefit from the shift rule and let's hope it revives him and our team, because he is very fun to watch in the field. I cans still remember when it was fun to watch him hit better. 

Twins Geezer, out!     GO TWINS!

I like Max, for several reasons.  He seems to be a decent guy.  He is usually available to play, and I think he has a beautiful swing.  His defense is top-notch in RF, and acceptable (short-term in CF).

None of this makes him a quality bat at a position that is traditionally a big-bat spot.  I  REALLY hope he shows enough that the Twins feel good about extending his contract.

My biggest fears is he signs with the Spiders and he brings that beautiful swing to Target Field several times a year to terrorize his former team...

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Tyler from Oregon said:

Let's say Kepler has an extremely solid and productive season, and hits like .270 with 20+ home runs. Does this team try to bring him back again next year for $10 million, or is this the end for him in a Twins uniform, no matter how this season goes?

If Max hits .270 with 20+ bombs he's coming back on that option and the Twins don't think twice about it. They also get some really nice trade offers for him.

Guys who hit .270 with 20+ last year: Lindor, Pujols, Alonso, Ohtani, Riley, Pederson, France, Vlad Jr, Realmuto, Swanson, Contreras (Atlanta version), Ramirez (Jose), Ward, Trout, Rodriguez (Julio), Bichette, Correa, Arenado, Devers, Turner (Trea), Machado, Altuve, Lowe (Nathaniel), Alvarez (Yordan), Judge, Goldschmidt, and Freeman.

That's 27 of the most recognizable names in baseball. .270 with 20+ is an all star season.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

If Max hits .270 with 20+ bombs he's coming back on that option and the Twins don't think twice about it. They also get some really nice trade offers for him.

Guys who hit .270 with 20+ last year: Lindor, Pujols, Alonso, Ohtani, Riley, Pederson, France, Vlad Jr, Realmuto, Swanson, Contreras (Atlanta version), Ramirez (Jose), Ward, Trout, Rodriguez (Julio), Bichette, Correa, Arenado, Devers, Turner (Trea), Machado, Altuve, Lowe (Nathaniel), Alvarez (Yordan), Judge, Goldschmidt, and Freeman.

That's 27 of the most recognizable names in baseball. .270 with 20+ is an all star season.

assuming he continues taking walks like he normally does, anyways. but I agree: they'll happily pick up that option and either plug him in for another season or deal him because that number for a player of his age coming off a season that productive is worth that kind of money (also presuming the defense stays good)

[Thebigalguy]

I predict a great season for the Kepster. 

[DocBauer]

Personally, I view LF and RF as nearly identical positions... despite the tremendous individual breakdown work by Nick...simply because other than Gordon, and Kepler being a RF mainstay, virtually everyone else on the roster and future possibles all figure in to either or both spots. I make that point for this year, as well as 2024 and beyond. But I digress somewhat.

How crazy is it that, offensively speaking, our OF corners could be huge weak spots, OR, highly productive? A return to previous form by Gallo...great as recently as 2021...and a rebound by Kepler, combined with the potential of Larnach, and Wallner, could make both corner spots dangerous. And I'm not even including the solid Gordon and Taylor as nice pieces to fill in with. I do believe Kepler was shopped. And that makes sense with Gallo on board, and the depth available. I believe there was probably real interest, but not enough offered in return vs keeping him, betting on a rebound, and keeping his veteran presence as insurance for a healthy Larnach and still developing Wallner. 

FWIW, I was OK moving on from Kepler and letting Larnach and Wallner get their shot. I still am. You HAVE to trust in your top prospects at some point and let them play, take a few lumps, and let them figure it out. I think Larnach is going to be damn good, if he's 100%. The good news is both of his previous injuries aren't related and don't appear chronic at this point. Wallner has improved in almost every single category over the past couple of years. But his defense could use some polish, and he's only got about half a season at AAA, so a little more seasoning to hone rough edges is not a bad thing. So why not keep Kepler for now instead of moving him for low value?

Larnach is a much better defender than some gave credit for on his way up, and has a gun for an arm. He plays in either corner with hit ability and power and potentially fairly even splits. Wallner moves and runs very well for a large human being and has a cannon for an arm with tremdous power. Despite continued development in virtually every category, I see Wallner as the better power bat, and Larnach as the better hitter. It's not hard to see them both in some configuration as the corner OF tomorrow, with assistance and depth from Gordon, Martin, and Celestino. Lewis MIGHT figure in there as well, but I believe he will settle in on the dirt with Lee in some combination along with Correa. I like Martin, potentially, eventually, as a super utility player at multiple positions. Anyone else is far enough away, for now, that I'm not going to conjecture at this point.

So I basically did reverse order and looked at depth and the future first. How about Kepler NOW?

I understand all the data points that say he's a better hitter than he should be. But at some point, data is just that, and reality on the field is the ultimate proof. He might hit the ball hard, but he doesn't do so often enough to make a difference. Some of the data, and simple eye test, shows way too many weak liners and ground balls. Kepler makes good contact, doesn't strike out a ton, will take some walks, and has power in his very sweet swing. So why has his contact been so generally weak and unproductive the last 2yrs? I understand he tries to hit the other way. And I believe the lack of extreme shifts might help him. But at some point, even as a natural pull hitter, his athleticism and power and sweet swing should have him driving the ball SOMEWHERE other than weak flys and grounders.

And I say all of this as a long term fan of his. SOMETHING has been missing in his approach and results, juiced ball or not. Does he not "know" who he is as a hitter? Is he trying too damn hard to be perfect as a hitter? It's up to Popkins and Hernandez to help him figure that out. I love his defense. But his career BA sits at .232. Career OB is .317. Career OPS is .744 with career highs of .855 in 2019 and .760 in 2020. He's never been above .737 in the rest of his career. Of course, he's also been much better against RHP, not surprising. And maybe he's just best as an outstanding defensive player who should sit against RHP as much as possible and be a lower order batter, as I've stated more than a few times, where he could be dangerous.

And just being really real for a moment, there aren't that many LH hitters who have great success, or good/moderate success against LHP. There is no way to simply platoon every position in baseball. I mean, come on, every player is going to face same side pitching. And it's perfectly fine to bat a LH hitter higher in the order against opposite handedness, and place them lower in the order against the same to begin a game. That's just baseball, and things change as the game progresses and changes are made. But there is a difference between not being very good against a LH pitcher, in Kepler's case, vs not raking or being at least very good against opposite arms.

For what ST stats are worth, it appears Max is off to a good start for 2023. Again, I'm a fan and love his defense. And maybe, even at 30yo, all that talent and potential blooms some and he hits .250  ish with 20+ HR and 30+ HR. That would mean he was actually DRIVING the ball again. And with those numbers, and his defense, he's an easy "bring back" with his 2024 option, even if it meant a trade because the other young talent staked their claim for the future during 2023.

 

[Danchat]

20+ HRs from Kepler feels pretty unrealistic after he had a whopping 9 in 446 PAs last year - which for reference, is as many HRs as Nick Gordon hit in 443 PAs, and even Arraez reached 8 HRs (though he had another 160 PAs). Sure, I think he'll hit a few more singles this year with the new shift limitations, but his power is in steady decline and I don't see any discernable reason why it's going to spike upwards.

I'd really like to see Larnach seize LF or RF, but he's just got to stay healthy. I dunno about Wallner, we just haven't had success on batters who strike out so often, so I wouldn't bet on him.