How Will the Twins Get to their Opening Day Roster?

[Theo Tollefson]

The Twins announced their first large movement of players from big league to minor-league camp at spring training after their split-squad games on Tuesday. With only 15 days until Opening Day, who among the 40-man roster still at major-league camp is most likely to be cut before the 26-man roster is finalized?

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA Today

Seven players on the 40-man roster have been either optioned (Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Brent Headrick, Edouard Julien, and Simeon Woods Richardson) or placed on the 60-day Injured List (Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis). That leaves decisions to be made on seven players, whether it’s an IL move or an option, before Opening Day. 

Injured List
Alex Kirilloff remains the biggest question mark for the Twins. Will he be ready for Opening Day? The 2016 top pick took live batting practice on Monday against teammate Kenta Maeda. No further news of injury or discomfort in Kirilloff’s wrist from the live BP was reported by Twins beat reporters. The possibility of Kirilloff landing on the IL and staying in Ft. Myers for Extended Spring Training remains a possibility. 

At least one player will move to the Injured List before Opening Day. Gilberto Celestino's thumb injury will keep him out for six to eight weeks with a rehab assignment to follow. At that point, he will likely be optioned and play daily in St. Paul. 

The status of Ronny Henriquez and his sore posterior elbow has not been updated over the last week. While his health status has yet to be confirmed for Opening Day, it’s unlikely he’ll start the season on the Twins' 26-man roster as he has not thrown in a spring training game. 

Henriquez had a strong cup of coffee with the Twins bullpen last season posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings pitched across three games. It’s likely that healthy or not, the Twins' front office will want Henriquez to develop at Triple-A before getting back into the team’s bullpen. 

Minor League Options 
Matt Wallner’s has had a decent spring hitting .250/.358/.450 (.798 OPS) in 20 at-bats across eight games. Since he is an offense-first player in a Twins outfield group filled with great defenders, it is likely he will start the season in St. Paul to have more guaranteed plate appearances and continue his development. 

Wallner’s opportunity to crack the 26-man roster and expect everyday playing time is in the designated hitter role or if there is another injury. 

Trevor Megill is second to only Jhoan Duran having the fastest pitch out of the entire Twins bullpen, but his lack of command from 2022 is still showing in spring training. Megill had a 2.88 K/BB ratio last year with the Twins. He has walked six batters and struck out 11 (K/BB ratio of 1.83) in 5 1/3 innings this spring.

The blazing fastballs will not be enough for Megill to crack the Opening Day roster if he cannot get his command of the strike zone under wrap before then. 

Cole Sands has no bigger fan than the Twins Geek himself. However, with so many reliever options to choose from and Sands' bad streaks in the majors last year, the Twins front office may see more benefit for him to start the season in St. Paul getting innings as a starter and reliever. Sands can stay ready to be called up and sent back down based on injury moves. 

Louie Varland and his abilities certainly are exciting. However, while Bailey Ober is forcing the hands of the Twins' front office to consider starting 2023 with a six-man rotation, Varland is Starter #7 on the depth chart. To open the season in the Twins rotation would mean that two of the top six starters would start on the Injured List. 

Varland could theoretically make the Twins' Opening Day roster as a long reliever. However, the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021 and 2022 will go to St. Paul and continue to develop as a starter. 

Who do you think will be among the Twins' last seven roster cuts to trim the Opening Day roster down to 26? Leave your predictions and thoughts below.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

You pretty much hit it on the head.  We knew going into ST that, barring injury, there was very little question on the opening day roster.  Basically everyone you mentioned is headed to AAA.

I believe Magill is more of a lock to make the roster than you, but that is one man's opinion.

[DocBauer]

I believe Kirilloff begins the year on the IL and keeps getting work in, then moves to St Paul. Hopefully, he's feeling great and ready to go by May.

Larnach takes the final spot and plays both OF corners and does some DH as well. This allows Gallo to help cover some 1B as well. (Wallner is in reserve at St Paul and working to polish his defense a little more.)

Whether I/we like it or not, I still expect Pagan to begin the season in the pen in a middle relief role. They trusted him enough to the tune of $3.5M so he's going to get some regular season leash. (ugh)

That leaves one final roster spot to figure out, barring injury. It might be Megill as he's on the 40 man, but he doesn't have it locked up by any means. I'd like to say whoever looks the best gets that last job. That means someone like Coloumbe or Ortega might be added to the 40 man with a 60 man move. But my gut feeling is they will want to hold off on another 60 man move for now, and give that last spot in the pen to someone rostered. Right now, with a few nagging injuries, it's got to be Sands or Megill.

Still a couple of weeks for someone to step forward.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I believe Kirilloff begins the year on the IL and keeps getting work in, then moves to St Paul. Hopefully, he's feeling great and ready to go by May.

Larnach takes the final spot and plays both OF corners and does some DH as well. This allows Ober to help cover some 1B as well. (Wallner is in reserve at St Paul and working to polish his defense a little more.)

Whether I/we like it or not, I still expect Pagan to begin the season in the pen in a middle relief role. They trusted him enough to the tune of $3.5M so he's going to get some regular season leash. (ugh)

That leaves one final roster spot to figure out, barring injury. It might be Megill as he's on the 40 man, but he doesn't have it locked up by any means. I'd like to say whoever looks the best gets that last job. That means someone like Coloumbe or Ortega might be added to the 40 man with a 60 man move. But my gut feeling is they will want to hold off on another 60 man move for now, and give that last spot in the pen to someone rostered. Right now, with a few nagging injuries, it's got to be Sands or Megill.

Still a couple of weeks for someone to step forward.

The Twins will not play Ober at 1B, I think you meant Gallo Doc. Good post.

[DocBauer]

46 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins will not play Ober at 1B, I think you meant Gallo Doc. Good post.

Thank you! LOL I was posting at work and was rushed.

[Theo Tollefson]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Thank you! LOL I was posting at work and was rushed.

Love this here. 

[Major League Ready]

Just took a look at the WBC stats.  Julien has a .667 OBP and the highest OPS in the entire tournament.  Super small sample size but he sure looks legit.

[stringer bell]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I believe Kirilloff begins the year on the IL and keeps getting work in, then moves to St Paul. Hopefully, he's feeling great and ready to go by May.

Larnach takes the final spot and plays both OF corners and does some DH as well. This allows Gallo to help cover some 1B as well. (Wallner is in reserve at St Paul and working to polish his defense a little more.)

Whether I/we like it or not, I still expect Pagan to begin the season in the pen in a middle relief role. They trusted him enough to the tune of $3.5M so he's going to get some regular season leash. (ugh)

That leaves one final roster spot to figure out, barring injury. It might be Megill as he's on the 40 man, but he doesn't have it locked up by any means. I'd like to say whoever looks the best gets that last job. That means someone like Coloumbe or Ortega might be added to the 40 man with a 60 man move. But my gut feeling is they will want to hold off on another 60 man move for now, and give that last spot in the pen to someone rostered. Right now, with a few nagging injuries, it's got to be Sands or Megill.

Still a couple of weeks for someone to step forward.

The CW of Kirilloff going on the IL seems to be right at this time. As far as the last guy in the bullpen, Megill is both on the 40-man and has an option, so he can move freely back and forth to St. Paul. Unless he makes the Opening Day roster, Dennis Santana's demotion will provide a 40-man spot for whoever the Twins choose as the last guy in the bullpen. So far, on performance, Danny Coulombe has a case, Ortega has thrown well and Dobnak, Dereck Rodriquez, Sands and de Leon have thrown well and worked multiple innings. 

Ideally, these "last guys" would be interchangeable, with their option used and they would be able to come and go from St. Paul. Among the candidates for this role, Sands, Megill and Ortega have options remaining. 

[Rosterman]

If the Twins go with a 6-man rotation, do they have 7 or 8 arms in the pen. If they can have 8, that eliminates, momentarily, a batter (which could be Kirilloff if put on the i njured list).

Larnach stays if Kirilloff is injured.

The Twins will be giving Santana every opportunity to make the team. Megill (and Pagan) are on the bubble. Could someone like DeLeon crack the squad? The Twins are paying Hoffman NOT to pitch in St. Paul, although he will probably start there.

Wow! There are 80+ names on the current rosters in St. Paul and Wichita. Not many will fall backwards...so who goes from those minor league clubhouses!?!

[stringer bell]

41 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

If the Twins go with a 6-man rotation, do they have 7 or 8 arms in the pen. If they can have 8, that eliminates, momentarily, a batter (which could be Kirilloff if put on the i njured list).

Hard limit on pitchers at 13. 

[Greglw3]

I think they have to find a way to keep Willi Castro. Only 25  years old and a nice talent. Finished 4th in ROY voting 2020 at .349 although, so far that’s an outlier.

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I think they have to find a way to keep Willi Castro. Only 25  years old and a nice talent. Finished 4th in ROY voting 2020 at .349 although, so far that’s an outlier.

I think he'll be with the club at some point in 2023. Defensively, he is a better version of Gordon, but as a hitter, his upside is limited.