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Elephant in the Lockeroom.


Reptevia
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Through all the talk about adding a RH bat, (preferably an OF) no one is really addressing a serious problem. Buxton played 57 games in CF last year. (And the confetti hasn’t hit the floor yet as to what a great year he had). Unfortunately, that is about only 1/3 of the games. We need someone to “fill in” for 2/3 of the games?  No. The Twins desperately need a starting CF!  Celestino is not MLB ready and is very young and shouldn’t be expected to be counted on to be a starter. Gordon Will likely be the starter in LF, so…go get someone who can handle playing 2/3 of the CF starts. 

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57 games in CF with 51 starts last year does present a problem if Byron cannot move forward and avoid injury. I believe that the team is cognizant of this issue and just hasn't been able to land another player worth it for CF. Gallo was likely seen as a potential backup for a dozen games. I'm not sure Kepler will be traded unless a team is willing to pay a high value, which makes Kepler available to play CF. Gordon will see some time in CF as well. Celestino has been pushed too quickly to MLB for his bat and legs, but the posts that rip his play in centerfield are not fair. He does not meet the expectation of an excellent glove out there but Celestino is plenty adequate. Looking around baseball it is clear that good centerfielders are in demand. Grisham, Straw, and Bellinger still play with very poor at bats. Reynolds is in huge demand but I'm sure glad the Twins didn't pay a fortune in prospects for him. Go down the list, it is pretty tough to land a true CF.

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4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

57 games in CF with 51 starts last year does present a problem if Byron cannot move forward and avoid injury. I believe that the team is cognizant of this issue and just hasn't been able to land another player worth it for CF. Gallo was likely seen as a potential backup for a dozen games. I'm not sure Kepler will be traded unless a team is willing to pay a high value, which makes Kepler available to play CF. Gordon will see some time in CF as well. Celestino has been pushed too quickly to MLB for his bat and legs, but the posts that rip his play in centerfield are not fair. He does not meet the expectation of an excellent glove out there but Celestino is plenty adequate. Looking around baseball it is clear that good centerfielders are in demand. Grisham, Straw, and Bellinger still play with very poor at bats. Reynolds is in huge demand but I'm sure glad the Twins didn't pay a fortune in prospects for him. Go down the list, it is pretty tough to land a true CF.

Clearly the demand is driving a tough market, as KC asked for Winder in a Michael Taylor deal. IMO Winder would be a very high price to pay for a 4th OF.

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1 hour ago, lecroy24fan said:

Clearly the demand is driving a tough market, as KC asked for Winder in a Michael Taylor deal. IMO Winder would be a very high price to pay for a 4th OF.

Exactly. When you take a look through the guys who can actually play centerfield, you begin to have some appreciation for Celestino. It's a tough market.

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Kepler can still play CF,  Gordon can as well and Gallo in a pinch and I am sure Celestino will get more opportunities.  The Twins do realize they should find a better CF as they tried for KCs Michael Taylor.  but he isnt great either and there are not many options around.  

I do hope Buxton can get closer to 100 games in CF next season so we only need to divy up 60-65 games for others there.  

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I am going to assume Buxton stays healthy but with a reduced workload with days off and at DH, this seems to be the goal and how they are building the roster.

An outfield of Gallo/ Buxton/ Kepler is an insane defensive outfield, that is 3 gold glove caliber guys. 

They will be reluctant to use them there but both Gallo/ Kepler can play center well.  You don't want them there daily but both can eat some games.

Gallo/ Kepler as the corner guys can also make up for some CF weaknesses.  Celestino/ Gordon have much more support if they need to be run out there for long stretches of time.

Adding a RH bat that can play center is ideal but until that happens this seems to be the path. 

I have been wondering why Kepler hasn't been moved but considering Buxton's uncertainty made me think how much they are valuing his defense.  I still think they move him but it shows maybe why they are holding out for the best return?

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We need another bat!

If Celestino makes the opening day 26 man roster. The front office will have made a huge mistake.

You don't take a 23 year who isn't ready to play in the majors and give him a position where he is a Byron Buxton injury away from playing in the majors. It was a mistake to do that with a 22 year old, no excuse to repeat that mistake. 

We have 16 position players on the current 40 man roster. 

Two of Larnach, Celestino, Julien and Wallner will make the opening day 26 man roster as things stand right now. 

If anybody gets hurt in spring training (it happens)... Three of those 4 will make the opening day roster. If two people get hurt in spring training (it happens)... well... I'll just mention again that we currently have 16 position players on the current 40 man roster. 

Now we can place some players on the 60 day later. That will open up spots on the 40 man to give to Garlick or Willi Castro types. We can also sign players that get bumped off of other teams rosters. Garlick, Castro type players along with players that get bumped off other rosters can help us avoid rushing Celestino, Julien and Wallner just to fill out an opening day roster.

However they fill out the 26 man roster... Celestino or Castro. I will guarantee everyone this. Whoever makes the 26 man roster WILL PLAY.  

So they better get somebody who can hit before you forced to roster someone who can't hit. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, nclahammer said:

Gilberto Celestino does not belong on an MLB roster right now, he needs extensive time at AAA.  Any CF options for Buxton when he DHs or gets a day off would have to come from some combination of Gallo/Gordon/Kepler.

The injuries in 2021 that forced the Twins to move Celestino from AA to the Majors hindered his growth in my opinion. He didn't get the chance to go through the growing pains to learn how to hit better quality pitching.

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Here's what I would do. Let Kepler, Gallo, and Gordon backup CF. And when Royce is back in July/August he becomes the primary CF backup, while splitting time as a backup LF & SS. Basically an everyday player who gives Correa and Buxton a day off when needed. Starting in LF/RF for a full-strength lineup. 

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3 hours ago, nclahammer said:

Gilberto Celestino does not belong on an MLB roster right now, he needs extensive time at AAA.  Any CF options for Buxton when he DHs or gets a day off would have to come from some combination of Gallo/Gordon/Kepler.

G. Celestino not on roster!! I keep proposing a trade with Kepler - Pagan - Celestino to help us with 3 problems all at once. Sorry!

Since we got Gallo I assumed we needed to move Kepler. Gordon earned LF & CF back-up as well in ‘22.

If we can’t move Kepler:

Gordon in LF 80 games. Larnach in LF 50 games. Garlick/Lewis in LF 35 games.

Buxton in CF 85 games. Gordon in CF 55 games. Gallo in CF 25 games.

Kepler in RF 105 games. Gallo in RF 55 games.

Buxton at DH 45 games. Gallo at DH 25 games. Larnach at DH 55 games. Garlick at DH 25 games. CC at DH 10 games.

Kirilof at 1B only (trying to keep healthy) & Miranda getting AB’s at 1B in maybe 40 games. Farmer at 3B when we face Lefty’s & when Miranda rests……Farmer, maybe 65 starts at 3rd and 20 starts at SS and 25 starts at 2B.

I do get, the more I look at the roster, that keeping Kepler may make sense! Have been a big trade proponent since the day we signed Gallo. Want to trade his salary for room for a FA reliever!!!! However, with Buxton - Garlick - Kirilof - Larnach all recently & repeatedly injured, we can’t count on their innings in reality like we can on paper. Keeping Kepler is a much better option than being forced into playing Celestino!

Gallo/Larnach - Gordon - Kepler is still an exceptional outfield if Buxton goes down with injury.

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2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

We need another bat!

If Celestino makes the opening day 26 man roster. The front office will have made a huge mistake.

You don't take a 23 year who isn't ready to play in the majors and give him a position where he is a Byron Buxton injury away from playing in the majors. It was a mistake to do that with a 22 year old, no excuse to repeat that mistake. 

We have 16 position players on the current 40 man roster. 

Two of Larnach, Celestino, Julien and Wallner will make the opening day 26 man roster as things stand right now. 

If anybody gets hurt in spring training (it happens)... Three of those 4 will make the opening day roster. If two people get hurt in spring training (it happens)... well... I'll just mention again that we currently have 16 position players on the current 40 man roster. 

Now we can place some players on the 60 day later. That will open up spots on the 40 man to give to Garlick or Willi Castro types. We can also sign players that get bumped off of other teams rosters. Garlick, Castro type players along with players that get bumped off other rosters can help us avoid rushing Celestino, Julien and Wallner just to fill out an opening day roster.

However they fill out the 26 man roster... Celestino or Castro. I will guarantee everyone this. Whoever makes the 26 man roster WILL PLAY.  

So they better get somebody who can hit before you forced to roster someone who can't hit. 

 

 

Looking like Larnach & Garlick will be behind starting 4 rotation of Gordon, Buxton, Kepler, & Gallo

LF:Gordon/Larnach/Garlick - CF:Buxton/Gordon/Gallo - RF:Kepler/Gallo

Garlick as RH bat for LF & some DH…..at least for now.

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54 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Looking like Larnach & Garlick will be behind starting 4 rotation of Gordon, Buxton, Kepler, & Gallo

LF:Gordon/Larnach/Garlick - CF:Buxton/Gordon/Gallo - RF:Kepler/Gallo

Garlick as RH bat for LF & some DH…..at least for now.

Larnach will be 26 years old with two options left. If Larnach is on the 26 man roster and behind those 4. We can all stop dreaming of the day that Larnach will be the answer to anything in the future. Because he will be 28 years old in no time at all.  

If Larnach makes the 26 man roster. He must be given the opportunity to earn a job by outplaying Kepler, Gallo and Gordon for playing time. 

Garlick is practically useless to me. He will sit on the bench until a lefty hits the stage. He will be start and be subbed out when a right hander takes the mound and he will pinch hit and be subbed out as a defensive replacement. He will occupy a valuable roster spot on a roster that has health and hitting question marks all over the place.  

We need a bat. This lineup needs to deepen. Our Disabled list will be utilized this year. 😀

 

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It obviously won't be at the start of the season, but Lewis is the answer here. I'd have him set to be the RFer of the future once he comes back, and the primary Buxton replacement. Maybe Martin tears the cover off the ball all spring and he's the early season option to take one of Paddack or Canterino's 40-man spot? Short-term they have a real need here (and I'd like to see another bat added in general, but not sure what the options really are for that anyways), but I'm not worried long-term as Lewis is the perfect answer to me.

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Agreed that the plan is to buy time with some combo of Kepler/Gallo/Gordon/Celestino as the CF backups until Lewis gets back.  With Correa here for the next 6 years, my guess is that Lewis is no longer going to be thought of as an IF within the org, but will transition full time to the OF as hopefully a gold glove caliber guy in RF/LF and a high level Buxton backup in CF.  Miranda will be at third for the next 3-4 years, with Lee either replacing him or Polanco, and Martin/Julien taking the role of super subs.

At least that's how the FO wants it to play out, I imagine.

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29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It obviously won't be at the start of the season, but Lewis is the answer here. I'd have him set to be the RFer of the future once he comes back, and the primary Buxton replacement. Maybe Martin tears the cover off the ball all spring and he's the early season option to take one of Paddack or Canterino's 40-man spot? Short-term they have a real need here (and I'd like to see another bat added in general, but not sure what the options really are for that anyways), but I'm not worried long-term as Lewis is the perfect answer to me.

I agree Lewis should be a CF, RF long term at this point. Maybe Martin if he can get back to getting on base all the time. 

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When Earl Weaver was asked where the backup SS was on his roster he would always answer "Rochester, where he belongs."  That's where Celestino belongs until he learns his trade in CF. 
 

This roster needs a Buxton job share one or two days a week that Gordon, Kepler and Gallo can handle until Lewis or Martin reaches out and seizes it. Honestly Lewis could easily replace Gordon on the roster when he returns and Martin could inherit the utility-in-waiting tiara.  

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11 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

I am going to assume Buxton stays healthy but with a reduced workload with days off and at DH, this seems to be the goal and how they are building the roster.

An outfield of Gallo/ Buxton/ Kepler is an insane defensive outfield, that is 3 gold glove caliber guys. 

They will be reluctant to use them there but both Gallo/ Kepler can play center well.  You don't want them there daily but both can eat some games.

Gallo/ Kepler as the corner guys can also make up for some CF weaknesses.  Celestino/ Gordon have much more support if they need to be run out there for long stretches of time.

Adding a RH bat that can play center is ideal but until that happens this seems to be the path. 

I have been wondering why Kepler hasn't been moved but considering Buxton's uncertainty made me think how much they are valuing his defense.  I still think they move him but it shows maybe why they are holding out for the best return?

If the Twins are trying to trade Kepler they are likely marketing him as a CF.  Average defense and average offense is better then most teams current CF.

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Our CF was ranked 4th in MLB, I read someplace in TD or maybe heard from Nash Walker. Why do we want to change a good thing? I'm expecting Buck to be playing more this year. Because of the full spring training, new medical trainer (?) and believe he'll be just more fortunate this year, Maybe he'll be a MVP candidate at the end of the season. We don't need Gallo why would we spend on another CF? 

With the same CFers we had last year, Buxton healthier, Gordon have another year under his belt & Celestino take another step (I'm not against him starting out in AAA) I'd be tempted to bet they could be #1.

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IMO there's no way that Lewis will be playing the OF because those positions are too injury prone. If Larnach or Kirilloff can't play the OF then they won't have positions with the Twins except to platoon at 1B or DH.

This is why I posted about CF Ryan LaMarre being signed to a minor league contract as a replacement for Jake Cave. He batted .297 in AAA last year. Plus Celestino has good plate discipline and he improved by playing. Fans need to believe that young players can improve. I doubt that there's going to be FA outfielder signed unless someone like Kepler is traded.  And even then, Wallner may already give us the additional OF depth.

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8 minutes ago, sun said:

IMO there's no way that Lewis will be playing the OF because those positions are too injury prone.

 

Do you have data to support this? I see this claim relatively frequently, but I'm yet to see anyone be able to show that it's actually true.

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There are not any outfielders available that would be better than what is currently on the roster. Kepler should not be traded unless the return is substantial, maybe Loaisiga + from NYY. Celestino should be just a phone call and short taxi ride away in St. Paul. Nick Gordon should get regular playing time. Let Buxton be Buxton and hope he can finally avoid HBP and awkward unlucky injuries. The Twins have some talent that needs to play and it is now time to see what they can accomplish on the field at the MLB level.

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55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you have data to support this? I see this claim relatively frequently, but I'm yet to see anyone be able to show that it's actually true.

It's from my lifetime of experience. I doubt that the Twins would ever allow themselves to be shamed & embarrassed by making the same mistake twice. Especially if Rocco wants to keep his job. OF'ers hit their knees hard on the turf all of the time while making plays, running into walls and colliding with other players.  That's not how you protect a valuable player/ asset with a loose knee that can result after having multiple injuries & surgeries. I think it's just common sense and a smart baseball decision to keep Lewis away from playing the OF. The Twins smartened up by taking Arraez out of LF after they tried him there. He made good plays but it's a risky position with bad knees, riskier than playing the infield. You didn't see Buck going back out there much last year either. If it' doesn't lead to a knee injury, it could cause a shoulder injury. Buck also needed shoulder surgery after hitting the wall. It's not easy to develop a 6th sense for the wall and some never do.

Before Lewis was injured in CF, he only played 6 games in the OF in 3 years. That's a recipe for disaster for a guy just coming off knee surgery.

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2 minutes ago, sun said:

It's from my lifetime of experience. I doubt that the Twins would ever allow themselves to be shamed & embarrassed by making the same mistake twice. Especially if Rocco wants to keep his job. OF'ers hit their knees hard on the turf all of the time while making plays, running into walls and colliding with other players.  That's not how you protect a valuable player/ asset with a loose knee that can result after having multiple injuries & surgeries. I think it's just common sense and a smart baseball decision to keep Lewis away from playing the OF. The Twins smartened up by taking Arraez out of LF after they tried him there. He made good plays but it's a risky position with bad knees, riskier than playing the infield. You didn't see Buck going back out there much last year either. If it' doesn't lead to a knee injury, it would cause a shoulder injury.

So, no, you have no proof of it, it just feels that way. You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but it's not "common sense" that Lewis shouldn't play OF. Why isn't Trout a 1B then? Or just a DH. Or Judge. He'd be a huge target to throw to at first. Mookie Betts was an infielder when he first started, but now he's a gold glove outfielder. Both Upton brothers were SS that moved to the OF. The Padres are shifting their $340 million man from SS to RF this season.

You don't think going full speed to his right to backhand a ball, plant and throw back across the field puts any strain on his knee? Or going up the middle to get to a ball and planting and spinning to throw to first? 

If it was so "common sense" that OFers are at such higher risk to be injured it'd be super easy to prove. There'd be data for it. https://www.onlinegambling.ca/content-hub/mlb-injuries.php According to this article the OF doesn't look any more dangerous than the IF to me. CF averaged 1 more day on the IL than 3B. Only 10 more than SS. LF, CF, RF combined averaged 1 more day than 3B, SS, and 2B combined. Shoot, DHs averaged as many as RFers. If it were so obvious that OFers were getting hurt more than IFers it'd be really easy to prove.

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5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It obviously won't be at the start of the season, but Lewis is the answer here. I'd have him set to be the RFer of the future once he comes back, and the primary Buxton replacement. Maybe Martin tears the cover off the ball all spring and he's the early season option to take one of Paddack or Canterino's 40-man spot? Short-term they have a real need here (and I'd like to see another bat added in general, but not sure what the options really are for that anyways), but I'm not worried long-term as Lewis is the perfect answer to me.

I was literally going through the responses assuming someone had given this response.  With Correa entrenched for the next few years, you have to believe Lewis will be the RF when he is not backing-up CF or SS.  I am also hoping Rodriquez flies through the minors.

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1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

So, no, you have no proof of it, it just feels that way. You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but it's not "common sense" that Lewis shouldn't play OF. Why isn't Trout a 1B then? Or just a DH. Or Judge. He'd be a huge target to throw to at first. Mookie Betts was an infielder when he first started, but now he's a gold glove outfielder. Both Upton brothers were SS that moved to the OF. The Padres are shifting their $340 million man from SS to RF this season.

You don't think going full speed to his right to backhand a ball, plant and throw back across the field puts any strain on his knee? Or going up the middle to get to a ball and planting and spinning to throw to first? 

If it was so "common sense" that OFers are at such higher risk to be injured it'd be super easy to prove. There'd be data for it. https://www.onlinegambling.ca/content-hub/mlb-injuries.php According to this article the OF doesn't look any more dangerous than the IF to me. CF averaged 1 more day on the IL than 3B. Only 10 more than SS. LF, CF, RF combined averaged 1 more day than 3B, SS, and 2B combined. Shoot, DHs averaged as many as RFers. If it were so obvious that OFers were getting hurt more than IFers it'd be really easy to prove.

Common injuries by a players position doesn't reveal the cause of the injury which your reference isn't specific at all. That means it's useless. It also doesn't address the severity of the injury to the player or take the player's injury history into account.

You failed to address the point that I made about why Arraez stopped playing left field. His hitting was certainly good enough to earn him a position. Meanwhile Larnach has been injured more than once and just had core surgery, and Kepler can't seem to stay healthy enough to finish out the last month of the season more than once. Jake Cave also injured his back and was out a long time. Playing the OF takes its toll unless you don't want to see the writing on the wall. [pun intended]

I'll bet you a zillion Dollars of funny money that Lewis won't be playing the OF any time this year in AAA or MLB. I think that he'll remain an infielder and may even DH.  He' should be a better 3B, 1B & hitter than Miranda or Farmer. Rocco's job and the Twins future are on the line. Maybe you're willing to risk your fantasy coaching career but I'd bet that Rocco and the Twins FO won't. The fans won't appreciate Lewis getting any other type of injury in the OF that could affect his playing time & rise to stardom.

There's nothing like a concussion to ruin a career which can happen in any collision. Twins fans should know all about concussions with Mauer & Morneau. This is known as a baseball or organizational decision in order to maximize a player's potential while he's under team control. They want to protect a potential back up SS & big bat for the future,  After a player is making millions then the fans want to see them play despite the risks. We all know how many times that Trout has been injured. He's probably insured which saves the Angels paying a percentage of his salary. But that's not a good outcome to put a young player like Lewis at risk to dash the hopes of Twins fans if he gets seriously injured again. He's not an experienced MLB outfielder.

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25 minutes ago, sun said:

Common injuries by a players position doesn't reveal the cause of the injury which your reference isn't specific at all. That means it's useless. It also doesn't address the severity of the injury to the player or take the player's injury history into account.

You failed to address the point that I made about why Arraez stopped playing left field. His hitting was certainly good enough to earn him a position. Meanwhile Larnach has been injured more than once and just had surgery, and Kepler can't seem to stay healthy enough to finish out more than one last month of the season. Jake Cave also injured his back and was out a long time. Playing the OF takes its toll unless you don't want to see the writing on the wall. [pun intended]

I'll bet you a zillion dollars of funny money that Lewis won't be playing the OF anytime this year if he plays any baseball this year. I think that he will remain in the infield and may DH. Rocco's job and the Twins future are on the line. Maybe you're willing to risk your fantasy coaching career but I'd bet that Rocco and the Twins FO won't. The fans won't appreciate Lewis getting any other type of injury in the OF that could affect his playing time.

Provide your own data then. It's "common sense" according to you. So it should be real easy to provide me with this very simple data.

Luis Arraez was a terrible left fielder. Absolutely terrible. And they have about 6 other left handed hitting corner outfielders. There was no reason for him to play outfield. But if you're trying to suggest it's his knee issues I'll just point out that the Twins also moved him off 3B and 2B. So not a great argument there. Carlos Correa lost like $150 million this offseason because teams think he's wearing down. Jorge Polanco couldn't finish last year because he's breaking down. Max Kepler missed the end of last year with a wrist sprain. That what we're worried about with Lewis? Too many OFers spraining their wrists? Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitzki, Nomar Garciappara, Mike Sweeney, Eric Chavez. I can go on and on with guys who's careers ended prematurely, or were dramatically altered, by injuries who only played IF.

I'll bet you 100 real dollars he's absolutely in line to play more OF. I mean you suggest it's just so clearly obvious that the OF is more dangerous. So why were they willing to put him there last year? I mean it's common sense. Why would they have ever put him out there if it was so super obvious playing the OF is extra dangerous. They didn't have any other injury struggles with any superstar OFers before that to help guide them? Why is San Diego willing to risk Tatis and his 300+ million they owe him? Don't they know he's doomed out there? Or the Dodgers and Betts? Don't they know he was a 2B and it'd be way safer for him to move back to the IF? Or is it that these billion dollar corporations have done way more research on this than your "lifetime of experience" and they aren't worried about their hundred million dollar professional athlete investments being ruined because they have to run?

What do concussions have to do with this? Especially when your 2 examples are guys who never played OF!!!! Making sure he's available as a backup SS is maximizing his potential?! That big bat has to play somewhere. How far into the future are we saving him for? Just naming OFers who've been hurt doesn't prove your point. Because I can name just as many IFers.

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