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Where Did the Good Carlos Correa Go?


18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

 

Correa was a FA signing; that's an automatic overpay. Using a contract Polanco negotiated to buy out arbitration years as a baseline for 3-4 WAR production isn't remotely fair. Fangraphs also has the cost per WAR in FA this year at $8.5M, so if Correa gets to that 4 WAR mark the Twins are essentially getting what they paid for. I also expected more from Correa to this point, but I wouldn't call him a big disappointment.

The 8.5M per WAR represents the average cost of free agents.  Cost and value are not the same thing.  Paying 8.5M per WAR for a mid-market team is a recipe for failure.  To put this in perspective, if they were to sign four players that produced 4 WAR at 8.5M, the cost would be 136M which of course is almost their entire budget.  Even if they spent $150M, every single player among the remaining 22 players would have to be prearb which of course is extremely unrealistic.

The free agent portion of the budget would get you to approximately 66 wins.  Therefore, the requirement in order to build a 95 win team would be that they produce 29 WAR from 15.4M in spending.  The premise that free agents are worth $8.5M is misguided.  They cost $8.5m on average but it's a failure when they produce 1 WAR per $8.5M, especially for lower revenue teams.  That's the other failure of this premise / value proposition.  What is Viable production per dollar spent is far different for the Dodgers / Yankees than the Rays / As.

The equation here is what will be the difference in WAR between Lewis or whoever would replace him plus the war produced with the $150M in the salary (estimated) difference between the replacement over six years.

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11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Is it possible that fans have become far too obsessed with a player's salary?

When you pay somebody millions of dollars it plays into expectations. First I liked the signing and still do, I like Correa, but I feel offensively he has under performed, but to be honest if the Twins were paying half of what they are I still would feel he hasn't met my expectations, why? Because he is Carlos F'N Correa he should be all world no matter the pay check and I am still expecting that from him the rest of the year.

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2 hours ago, bighat said:

Correa is supposed to be among the top MLB shortstops - he should be putting up numbers like Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Corey Seager, and Xander Boegarts. Yes he should, yes that's absolutely what we all expected and so did the Twins. But his numbers aren't even close to what those guys are putting up.

In fact, shortstops who are having BETTER hitting seasons than Correa include Bobby Witt, Bo Bichette, Gleybar Torres, Willy Adames, Andres Jimenez, and some guy named Thairo Estrada. 

If you buy a Corvette and it runs like a reliable Honda Civic, you got a lemon. 

And yes, watching the lead dwindle to 1 game as the Twins fly out west to take on the best team in baseball is definitely adding to my bitterness on this matter. 

You are basing this on one aspect of his play, hitting. Yes, it’s been a down year for him. And that is not as expected. But he’s hardly a bust when you consider everything he’s brought to this team as a player and a leader.

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There we go again.  Comparing Correa to Simmons?  Come on.  And NO his 35mil has largely been a waste this year.  He is taking up 40% of teams payroll.  It certainly is understandable to expect more from someone coming here with a superstar status.  In my opinion he's been a big dissappointment.  Good or bad it looks more and more like he will opt in for next year to stay with the Twins.  Who's going to pay him big money with the year he is having?  Unless of course he gets hot and do what he was supposed to be doing.  Carrying the team to playoffs.

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Looking at Baseball  Reference his numbers are only slightly below his career norms. I had hoped for more but will take it over Kiner-Falefa's numbers for the season.

Looking at the trades that made signing Correa possible. We traded 4.3 war for 4.3 war. Better OPS+ at SS and 3rd  and it opened up at least one possibly 2 roster spots or our young players like Miranda. 

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18 hours ago, Dman said:

Rod Carew wasn't costing\asking for 35M per year.

MLB teams also weren't worth Billions of dollars with mega TV deals.  So times have changed.  If Rod Carew we're playing today he would be asking for 35 million dollar contracts too.  

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He got the money from the Twins and he'll get it from someone else next year. I for one am happy to have him and I hope the Twins can keep him. He brings more than what his stats indicate. He is a leader, and brings a certain "swag" to the team. IMO he's still one of the best ss in the league, regardless of what the defensive stats say.

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11 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

MLB teams also weren't worth Billions of dollars with mega TV deals.  So times have changed.  If Rod Carew we're playing today he would be asking for 35 million dollar contracts too.  

I have no idea why Rod Carew was given as an example as it isn't really related to Correa at all but that was example given. Still if Rod Carew was putting up a .725 OPS as the poster stated no one in MLB would be wanting to pay him 35M per year.  I mean Nick Gordon has a better OPS than that.  If that was your standard you would need to pay nearly every player on your team 35M.  The point I was trying to make is "value".  I think given what Correa has given so far (and I stated he has time to correct the numbers) the Twins can get greater value with the 35M than what they are getting right now paying Correa 35M per year. 

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31 minutes ago, Dman said:

I have no idea why Rod Carew was given as an example as it isn't really related to Correa at all but that was example given. Still if Rod Carew was putting up a .725 OPS as the poster stated no one in MLB would be wanting to pay him 35M per year.  I mean Nick Gordon has a better OPS than that.  If that was your standard you would need to pay nearly every player on your team 35M.  The point I was trying to make is "value".  I think given what Correa has given so far (and I stated he has time to correct the numbers) the Twins can get greater value with the 35M than what they are getting right now paying Correa 35M per year. 

If the context here is long-term, I believe Lewis will produce better offensively than Correa is performing now.  So, will we see appreciably better offense from Correa going forward?  IDK but you would think so.  If not, I will definitely take Lewis plus $30M year for 6 years to spend elsewhere. 

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15 minutes ago, Deadfan said:

Maybe ive been watching a different team but anybody calling the signing of Correa a "flop" is flat out wrong. 

 

What do you people actually want/expect???

I fully expected him to be an all start and put up all star numbers, didn't you?  He is the 7th highest paid player in baseball (6th if you remove Bauer)

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27 minutes ago, Deadfan said:

Maybe ive been watching a different team but anybody calling the signing of Correa a "flop" is flat out wrong. 

 

What do you people actually want/expect???

I don't think most people are saying Correa is a flop just that he isn't creating the value his 35 million dollar salary reflects.   Would you pay Nick Gordon 35M per year his OPS is almost the same as Correa's right now and Miranda's is higher.  If you are making that kind of money you need to perform to be worth it.  He hasn't performed to close to an All Star level and his salary says that is how he should be performing.  That is the issue, not that he is a poor player he just isn't living up to contract he signed at least IMO.

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2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

You are basing this on one aspect of his play, hitting. Yes, it’s been a down year for him. And that is not as expected. But he’s hardly a bust when you consider everything he’s brought to this team as a player and a leader.

Isn't he also down a bit defensively? Offensively his isn't off that much from his last 4 years. (last year being the exception)

Baseball reference has his dWAR at .8, last year it was 2.9, 2020 it was 1 (in 58 games), previous to that it was 1.4, 1.9, 1.6, 1.6 and as a rookie 1.1 in 99 games.

I liked the signing and still do but that fact we have to point out his intangibles as a selling point to his signing is is not good. 

I am not sure how possible it is gain on those numbers in the last 54 games, but I sure hope he does. Because if he doesn't the big conversation over the winter is what to do with his 70 million left on his contract, and people will start the screaming like they did with Donaldson.

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18 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If the context here is long-term, I believe Lewis will produce better offensively than Correa is performing now.  So, will we see appreciably better offense from Correa going forward?  IDK but you would think so.  If not, I will definitely take Lewis plus $30M year to spend elsewhere. 

If you mean the last month or so, you are probably correct that Lewis will produce better, but if you are talking about the year, that is putting a ton of weight on Lewis's shoulders. Correa is at 2.5 oWAR with 54 games left, he could easily get that above 3 and should be closer to 3.6. Considering Miranda is only at 1.3 oWAR that is a mighty big ask for Lewis. (possible, just a big ask - Hey Royce go out and be as good if not better than Carlos Correa). My expectations for Royce are not Carlos Correa type production, but I am also the type of person that would rather be surprised then let down. And Correa has already let me down this year by not be an all star.

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1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If you mean the last month or so, you are probably correct that Lewis will produce better, but if you are talking about the year, that is putting a ton of weight on Lewis's shoulders. Correa is at 2.5 oWAR with 54 games left, he could easily get that above 3 and should be closer to 3.6. Considering Miranda is only at 1.3 oWAR that is a mighty big ask for Lewis. (possible, just a big ask - Hey Royce go out and be as good if not better than Carlos Correa). My expectations for Royce are not Carlos Correa type production, but I am also the type of person that would rather be surprised then let down. And Correa has already let me down this year by not be an all star.

Technically Lewis doesn't have to come real close to Correa's numbers because by removing Correa you have 35M to spend to add more WAR.  Rodon might be a possible get or some other stud pitcher that is willing go short term high AAV.  Pitching is what the team needs, if Royce can just be better than average it would\could still be a win IMO.

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11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Isn't he also down a bit defensively? Offensively his isn't off that much from his last 4 years. (last year being the exception)

Baseball reference has his dWAR at .8, last year it was 2.9, 2020 it was 1 (in 58 games), previous to that it was 1.4, 1.9, 1.6, 1.6 and as a rookie 1.1 in 99 games.

I liked the signing and still do but that fact we have to point out his intangibles as a selling point to his signing is is not good. 

I am not sure how possible it is gain on those numbers in the last 54 games, but I sure hope he does. Because if he doesn't the big conversation over the winter is what to do with his 70 million left on his contract, and people will start the screaming like they did with Donaldson.

Could be. All I’m saying is he’s not a bust. I think that’s an overstatement. He may not be the most of everything expected but he’s still the best SS we’ve had since I don’t know when and he has been a real leader on the team and the team seems cohesive like it wasn’t at all last year. I just don’t think he’s a bust

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12 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Could be. All I’m saying is he’s not a bust. I think that’s an overstatement. He may not be the most of everything expected but he’s still the best SS we’ve had since I don’t know when and he has been a real leader on the team and the team seems cohesive like it wasn’t at all last year. I just don’t think he’s a bust

💯 not a bust, and if he had any say in getting pitching and keeping Miranda, he might be worth more than the Twins are paying him.

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14 minutes ago, Dman said:

Technically Lewis doesn't have to come real close to Correa's numbers because by removing Correa you have 35M to spend to add more WAR.  Rodon might be a possible get or some other stud pitcher that is willing go short term high AAV.  Pitching is what the team needs, if Royce can just be better than average it would\could still be a win IMO.

I was commenting on this sentence - " I believe Lewis will produce better offensively than Correa is performing now."

Not at all on the where the money could be spent, 100% it could be spent on pitching, I don't think the twins will spend that kind of money on pitching because if they stay anywhere near close to the philosophy they have it is wasting money, I believe they think they can find (develop, sign or trade for) the type of pitchers that go 5 innings (But more importantly can be good or better facing 21/22 guys a game) and no pitcher wanting a huge salary is or should settle for that limited amount of pitching, do we honestly believe Rodon would go from averaging almost 6 innings and 24 batters faced and 97 pitches a game to less? Now maybe the Twins will prove me wrong and take the leashes of of Gray and Mahle (They won't for Ryan because he will surpassing his career high in innings and fingers crossed will need him in the playoffs)to face more batters than the team average and would do the same for a Rodon type. I don't see it, I think they will continue to spend the "big" money on non-pitching because it seems safer in the long run and easier to offload if need be, then an expensive pitcher that is not good.

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2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I was commenting on this sentence - " I believe Lewis will produce better offensively than Correa is performing now."

Not at all on the where the money could be spent, 100% it could be spent on pitching, I don't think the twins will spend that kind of money on pitching because if they stay anywhere near close to the philosophy they have it is wasting money, I believe they think they can find (develop, sign or trade for) the type of pitchers that go 5 innings (But more importantly can be good or better facing 21/22 guys a game) and no pitcher wanting a huge salary is or should settle for that limited amount of pitching, do we honestly believe Rodon would go from averaging almost 6 innings and 24 batters faced and 97 pitches a game to less? Now maybe the Twins will prove me wrong and take the leashes of of Gray and Mahle (They won't for Ryan because he will surpassing his career high in innings and fingers crossed will need him in the playoffs)to face more batters than the team average and would do the same for a Rodon type. I don't see it, I think they will continue to spend the "big" money on non-pitching because it seems safer in the long run and easier to offload if need be, then an expensive pitcher that is not good.

I don't disagree as that has been their MO to date.  They don't trust pitching arms to last long and don't want to be stuck with a player that cannot contribute making big money (limiting payroll).  Still they seem pretty stocked for position players right now so it looks to me like they have a window to take chances on pitching.  If they they aren't going to spend that 35M then I would much rather have Correa.

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who am i to say? however, while he does make the hard play look easy is that really worth the price the twins are paying? and, if he opts out next year the twins get nothing in return for him -  he's just gone... unless i am mistaken. it will be a failed experiment. i find it hard to believe that he will be back next year and if he is, they should try and get something for him early on to try and claw back some of the investment they have made that, at this point, really hasn't produced much fruit. he says he loves in in minneapolis but he'll say he loves it in (city name here) when they sign him to a big deal next fall/winter.

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2 hours ago, Twodogs said:

MLB teams also weren't worth Billions of dollars with mega TV deals.  So times have changed.  If Rod Carew we're playing today he would be asking for 35 million dollar contracts too.  

Truth. And the fact the people post otherwise just shows they aren't making a well thought out argument at all.

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4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

There we go again.  Comparing Correa to Simmons?  Come on.  And NO his 35mil has largely been a waste this year.  He is taking up 40% of teams payroll.  It certainly is understandable to expect more from someone coming here with a superstar status.  In my opinion he's been a big dissappointment.  Good or bad it looks more and more like he will opt in for next year to stay with the Twins.  Who's going to pay him big money with the year he is having?  Unless of course he gets hot and do what he was supposed to be doing.  Carrying the team to playoffs.

Whay not compare to Simmons?

Simmons fielding was just as good if not better than Correa at this point but this shows the bat only stigma so many here employ.

Runs not scored are just as important as runs scored; i.e. last Twins game.

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1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Truth. And the fact the people post otherwise just shows they aren't making a well thought out argument at all.

I'll go out on a limb and assume this is directed at me.  My argument wasn't about what players were making in 1972 compared to 2022.  It was about valuing what a team can do with 35M and or what value 35M should have.  Rod Carew really doesn't even belong in this discussion about Correa;s value.  I just tried to point out based on another posters reply that the Money Correa earns versus what he contributes to the team matters.  Not trying to create some odd argument about what players from 1950 might earn today that has nothing to do with this OP. So "FYI" my not well thought out argument has nothing to do with yesterday's dollars versus todays dollars.  It has to do with the value a players performance has for the team based on how much money he makes and expanded to include what else could be done to improve the team with the 35M Correa makes.  Just to be clear nothing to do with Billionaire owners, high ticket prices, inflation through the years etc. etc.

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2 minutes ago, RpR said:

Whay not compare to Simmons?

Simmons fielding was just as good if not better than Correa at this point but this shows the bat only stigma so many here employ.

Runs not scored are just as important as runs scored; i.e. last Twins game.

Simmons dWAR last year was 2.3 in 131 games, and this year in 34 with the Cubs .5, Correa's is .8 in 84 games. Just for comparison sake.

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22 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

There are so many differences: (1) He is playing in a much more spacious park, where he won't get as many cheap extra-base hits. (2) He does not have a killer lineup surrounding him, where he is just one of many top hitters. (3) He does not have anyone banging on a can to tell him about curve balls. (4) He does not have Verlander and company to make sure that his offensive production leads to lots of wins.

Unfortunately, he is not a Strat-o-Matic card that works the same regardless of environment.

Exactly this...and especially (2) He does not have a killer lineup surrounding him, where he is just one of many top hitters.

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Outside of the very informed posters here, I wonder how many 'baseball fans' out there have a clue about all the letters and numbers being tossed about in MetricLand. I don't know what most any of it means, and to be fair, I don't care either. too much analysis can reduce this game to not being fun. OK, rant over on that one.

What I am 'seeing' when watching Carlos play is a guy who is having an off-year...based on what was expected. Failure? No. bust? No. Disappointing for what he cost? Yes, so far. This is not a good time for him to be slumping. Not a good time for Twins to have to face the Dodgers when 1st place is hanging by a thread. For them to win the AL Central, they need to have their key guys all playing better...that means Correa, Buxton, Polanco and Kepler all need to start getting the job done. None of them are having particularly great seasons.

but there is still time and until they drop a couple to the Dodgers, they are still on top, by a razor thin margin. We have yet to see the Correa we thought we were getting. I hope that changes.

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