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This Winter’s Rule 5 Draft


ScottyB
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Which significant minor leaguers will be Rule 5 eligible this year and will need to be added to the 40 man roster? We currently have 49 on the 40 man with the DFA of Duffey. 10 are on the 60 day IL. We know the following will be off the roster at year’s end: Sano, Sanchez (FA), Leon (FA), Fullmer (FA), Beckham (FA), and Cave is an easy cut. That brings us to 43. Still need to cut more to get under 40, the question is how many more openings we need to create.

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Correa will also be a free agent. The Twins might cut Balazovic, and probably Strotman.

Names like Stashak, Romero, Garlick, Coulombe, Romero, Thielbar, Contreras. Always feel Dobnak could be cut (and still remain in the minor leagues).

Names at AAA would be cloest to being able to hold a major league roster spot. That's Sisk, Schulfer, Wallner, Palacios. Helman That's pretty much it.

Some consideration ahs to be given to potential minor league free agents. Balazovic, if removed from the 40-man, would be one. Jair Camargo is another. So is Wander Javier.

There's a half-dozen names at AA - headed by canterino and possibly Varland, that warrant consideration. Maybe Julien. 

But the Twins have to make hard decisions on names like Balazovic, Henriquez, Strotman, Sands, Enlow. All keepers or not?

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I have six players Canterino, SWR, Varland, Wallner, Jullien, Palacios as pretty much must adds.  Then I have at least 5 Guys they need to decide if they will be taken or not in Isola, Headrick, Severino, Urbina, Lawyerson. 

Since Isola is a catcher with a good hit tool there seems a decent chance he would be taken.  Since Headrick is a Lefty with decent velocity, solid WHIP and above average K rate there is good chance he might be taken to be a pen arm as well.  I think it will depend on how Severino does at AA before we know if he needs to be added but his eye at the plate has improved and his contact and power are very, very good so he could end up as Baddoo v2 or maybe skipped like Mirnada hard to say right now. 

Urbina is pretty young and hasn't played above A ball.  Seems unlikely to be picked unless a team can waste a MLB roster spot all year as I doubt he is ready for MLB ball just yet.  Lawyerson has pretty much been a shut down reliever at AA.  Whether or not he truly has the stuff for the MLB again is hard to say but wouldn't be surprised if a team checked him out to see if he might stick.

There are a lot of reliever arms Sisk being another one that could be taken so this a tough. tough year for adds IMO.  Twins are likely gonna lose some guys in rule V this year.

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Still holding out hope that Correa stays at least one more year. He’s having a little bit of a down year and there will be several SS options on the market this winter. All indications are that he likes it here and $35M isn’t a bad consolation prize. I think both sides have indicated there is some mutual interest in extending.

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59 minutes ago, ScottyB said:

Still holding out hope that Correa stays at least one more year. He’s having a little bit of a down year and there will be several SS options on the market this winter. All indications are that he likes it here and $35M isn’t a bad consolation prize. I think both sides have indicated there is some mutual interest in extending.

The opt ins are bad for the Twins. They were added to protect Correa from a disastrous year, not a year which isn't elite. At this pace, Correa would probably be 5yrs $140MM or so. Or he could take the Twins for 2yrs $70MM max, risk an injury or a terrible season and come out long term way in the hole. Correa is gone unless something awful happens and I don't wish that on either Correa or the Twins.

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Jermaine Palacios is a MiLB free agent. He's not subject to rule 5. If the Twins don't put him on the 40 man, he can just negotiate with any team he wants, and I was stunned he didn't do that already last year.

New MiLB 40 man candidates
Matt Wallner - Protect
Eduoard Julien - Protect
Jair Carmago - Maybe
Matt Canterino - Protect
Simeon Woods-Richardson - Protect
Louie Varland - Protect

MiLB players on the 40 man
Jordan Balazovic
Blayne Enlow
Ronny Henriquez
Jovani Moran
Devin Smeltzer
Drew Strotman - Easy remove
Josh Winder
Caleb Hamilton - Easy remove

Coming off the 40 man
Chris Archer
Carlos Correa
Miguel Sano
Gary Sanchez
Sandy Leon
Michael Fulmer

MLB/Injured Non-tender candidates
Tim Beckham
Jake Cave
Kyle Garlick
Mark Contreras
Cody Stashak
Daniel Coulombe
Emilio Pagan
Caleb Thielbar
Dylan Bundy

I don't foresee a whole lot of roster crunch, to be honest.

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2 hours ago, Dman said:

I have six players Canterino, SWR, Varland, Wallner, Jullien, Palacios as pretty much must adds.  Then I have at least 5 Guys they need to decide if they will be taken or not in Isola, Headrick, Severino, Urbina, Lawyerson. 

Agree with your must adds, unless Correa stays then Palacios would not be added. I've Headrick and now Severino as adds. Isola - an MLB team is really going to keep a AA catcher on their MLB roster for all of 2023. I just don't see it. Urbina - wow, he is a long way from the majors down at low A, even more so than Baddoo was I believe. I don't add him to the roster. 

Using Beans list - New MiLB 40 man candidates
Matt Wallner - Protect
Eduoard Julien - Protect
Jair Carmago - No
Matt Canterino - Protect
Simeon Woods-Richardson - Protect
Louie Varland - Protect

MiLB players on the 40 man
Jordan Balazovic - yes
Blayne Enlow - depends how he finishes the season
Ronny Henriquez - no
Jovani Moran - yes
Devin Smeltzer - no
Drew Strotman - Easy remove
Josh Winder - yes
Caleb Hamilton - Easy remove

Coming off the 40 man
Chris Archer
Carlos Correa
Miguel Sano
Gary Sanchez
Sandy Leon
Michael Fulmer - this would be a good one to re-sign I think

MLB/Injured Non-tender candidates
Tim Beckham - no
Jake Cave - no
Kyle Garlick - no
Mark Contreras - no
Cody Stashak - no
Daniel Coulombe - no
Emilio Pagan - yes. The Twins will continue to try to work with him, for better or worse.
Caleb Thielbar - maybe
Dylan Bundy - no, but try to re-sign at a much lower salary

Dobnak - no, Twins will try slip him down to AAA.

Even with a lot of cutting, I still show 37 on the roster, leaving only room for 3 free agent additions.
 

 

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I don’t think they will keep Pagán. He has stuff but no command. Last year his walks were low but he was the hardest hit pitcher in baseball catching too much of the plate. This year he goes back and forth between walks and getting hit hard. He may finish the season with the luck of runners left on base as he did early in the season but it is unreasonable to believe he will gain command of his pitches. They need someone better and his arb 3 salary can’t be justified.

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9 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Agree with your must adds, unless Correa stays then Palacios would not be added. I've Headrick and now Severino as adds. Isola - an MLB team is really going to keep a AA catcher on their MLB roster for all of 2023. I just don't see it. Urbina - wow, he is a long way from the majors down at low A, even more so than Baddoo was I believe. I don't add him to the roster. 

Using Beans list - New MiLB 40 man candidates
Matt Wallner - Protect
Eduoard Julien - Protect
Jair Carmago - No
Matt Canterino - Protect
Simeon Woods-Richardson - Protect
Louie Varland - Protect

MiLB players on the 40 man
Jordan Balazovic - yes
Blayne Enlow - depends how he finishes the season
Ronny Henriquez - no
Jovani Moran - yes
Devin Smeltzer - no
Drew Strotman - Easy remove
Josh Winder - yes
Caleb Hamilton - Easy remove

Coming off the 40 man
Chris Archer
Carlos Correa
Miguel Sano
Gary Sanchez
Sandy Leon
Michael Fulmer - this would be a good one to re-sign I think

MLB/Injured Non-tender candidates
Tim Beckham - no
Jake Cave - no
Kyle Garlick - no
Mark Contreras - no
Cody Stashak - no
Daniel Coulombe - no
Emilio Pagan - yes. The Twins will continue to try to work with him, for better or worse.
Caleb Thielbar - maybe
Dylan Bundy - no, but try to re-sign at a much lower salary

Dobnak - no, Twins will try slip him down to AAA.

Even with a lot of cutting, I still show 37 on the roster, leaving only room for 3 free agent additions.
 

 

And you always keep a few players to jettison once you sign a free agent. You can't remove any of the 40-man roster adds until soemtime in spring training, unless you trade them.

The tough part is always having 40-man guys that don't contribute and can be questionable for the next season now, too. Like Balazovic, Sands, Enlow, Jenriquez (he is soooo young), Strotman. You can easily carry one low-level minor league guy for a whole season with no advancement, but you can't carry many like the Twins did this year.

Whew. 10 guys on the 60-day!

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12 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

 

Even with a lot of cutting, I still show 37 on the roster, leaving only room for 3 free agent additions.
 

 

Agreed with cutting to the bone that leaves us w/ 3, that's still a big problem.  I'd like to keep more so I'd like to create some trades to alleviate this problem this winter and have more wiggle room to sign some free agents.

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As things are now and how I expect they'll go for the season. Saw a note about the Twins trying to slip Dobnak down to AAA, sure, they can option him, but they can't remove him from the 40 man. He's under an MLB contract through 2025.

We have 10 guys on the 60 day IL right now, *2 will continue into next season, +3 I'd add to the start of next year's roster.
+Alcala
Coulombe
Dobnak
+Maeda
+Ober
Paddack*
Romero
Stashak
Lewis*
Sano

Non-tender if not traded/Non-roster/Free Agents/DFAs
1. Jordan Balazovic
2. Dylan Bundy
3. Chris Archer
4. Jake Cave
5. Kyle Garlick
6. Tim Beckham
7. Cody Stashak
8. Daniel Coulombe
9. Emilo Pagan
10. Caleb Thielbar
11. Miguel Sano
12. Giovanni Urshela
13. Michael Fulmer
14. Jhoan Romero
15. Carlos Correa
16. Sandy Leon
17. Gary Sanchez
18. Drew Strotman
19. Caleb Hamilton


So that's +19 openings,
-3 because of shrinking 60 day IL (Maeda/Ober/Dobnak)
-2 because the 60 day IL disappears at the end of the season and (Lewis/Paddack) carry over
-5 new to protect from rule 5 (Canterino, Wallner, Julien, Woods-Richardson, Varland)
-1 Jermaine Palacios
= 8 open spots, assuming no trades

Those 8 spots could be used to extend Sanchez or keep Balazovic or whatever. There are also borderline guys like Devin Smeltzer, etc.

I could be missing something for sure. Just don't see the roster crisis, though.

 

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18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The opt ins are bad for the Twins. They were added to protect Correa from a disastrous year, not a year which isn't elite. At this pace, Correa would probably be 5yrs $140MM or so. Or he could take the Twins for 2yrs $70MM max, risk an injury or a terrible season and come out long term way in the hole. Correa is gone unless something awful happens and I don't wish that on either Correa or the Twins.

If we could get Correa extended another 5 years and $140M, I’d jump on it. That’s an AAV of $28M, $7M less than current salary. If the 5 years includes the next 2 years plus 3 more, you’re talking 2 years for $70M and 3 more years for an additional $70M (less than $24M per year).  That’s a bargain. I would think it would be more like at least 5 years $175M. We are after all talking Scott Boras.

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BTW, Beckham is a UFA at season’s end, Bundy and Archer have options on their contracts, so question is will options be picked up on both or either.

Also all players on the 60 day IL must be added to the 40 man roster for the winter. Sano’s option won’t be picked up but guys like Paddack and Lewis who won’t be ready at the beginning of next season must be on the 40 man until late spring training.

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