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Could Smeltzer be a long reliever?


bwillly
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Looking at Quality Starts, before picking up Mahle Smeltzer actually had the most QS at 6, Gray has 5.

Smeltzer had a couple bad starts and got sent to the Saints.

Why?

Even with those couple of poor starts he has a 4.0 era this year and a 2.0 era at target field.

With our bullpen still lacking depth why is he not on the roster?

Seems like he would be a great option to pick up 6-7 inning work with Rocco’s penchant for not letting SPs pitch into the 6th.

Does he maybe have no personal interest in that kind of role?

 

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, bwillly said:

Looking at Quality Starts, before picking up Mahle Smeltzer actually had the most QS at 6, Gray has 5.

Smeltzer had a couple bad starts and got sent to the Saints.

Why?

Even with those couple of poor starts he has a 4.0 era this year and a 2.0 era at target field.

With our bullpen still lacking depth why is he not on the roster?

Seems like he would be a great option to pick up 6-7 inning work with Rocco’s penchant for not letting SPs pitch into the 6th.

Does he maybe have no personal interest in that kind of role?

 

 

 

 

 

Why? Partly because he was starting to pitch like crap but mainly because he called out the team for pulling starters early. In 7 starts he managed to more than double his ERA which is concerning for a guy who doesn't throw heat. I do like the idea of him being a long reliever option

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Being a middle reliever is what he's best suited for in the bigs. He's just not a viable starter, other than maybe the occasional spot start. They should've brought him up over Sands. Since Rocco refuses to let just about any starter go more than 4-5 innings, Smeltzer could pick up an inning or two in the middle somewhere. 

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52 minutes ago, ICTwin25 said:

Why? Partly because he was starting to pitch like crap but mainly because he called out the team for pulling starters early. In 7 starts he managed to more than double his ERA which is concerning for a guy who doesn't throw heat. I do like the idea of him being a long reliever option


he had 2 bad starts in July and still has a 2.40 era at target field as a starter. It seems odd to send him to the saints for 2 bad starts imo and he would def be a valuable bullpen arm over pagan or Duffey imo.

tbh I like that he criticized Rocco for pulling starters early, but I’m guessing that’s maybe the biggest reason he got sent down lol. Didn’t know that bit.

would be kind of funny irony too if he got called back up and Rocco says you don’t like me pulling starters well here now you’re a reliever and you can pitch the 6th and 7th ;)))

 

 

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I still say that TK is the only guy who had it figured out and put his bullpen into a rotation. Most pitchers can’t pitch on a daily basis. I would find two relievers who can pitch two innings every other day (especially if Baldelli refuses to let starters go more than 5 innings.) Smeltzer could be one of those guys. I think Lopez can handle being closer every day. (Same as Reardon and Aggie). Every other day for 8th inning guys Fullmer/Duran, 7th inning guys Jax/ McGill. Then you won’t overtax the bullpen.

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Smeltzer got sent down because he wasn't that good to start with and was falling off the table. He had a 1.50 ERA in May (4 starts), a 4.10 Era in June (5 starts), and a 8.76 ERA in July (3 starts). He doesn't throw hard and he doesn't appear to have an out pitch to rely on when he's in trouble. The league figured him out and he wasn't able to make the necessary adjustments to be successful. Criticizing the manager doesn't help and may have accelerated his demise, but he simply wasn't pitching at an acceptable level so he had to go back to AAA. It's as simple as that.

Now we can debate whether Bundy or particularly Archer's any better, Still, Bundy has had some good starts and usually gives the team a chance to win. Archer, not so much in my view, but he does have better stuff than Smeltzer. Anyway, Smeltzer will get another try when inevitably somebody gets hurt

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Rocco is not comfortable with very competitive guys. Im sure he didnt like Smeltzer, who is very intense and competitive caring so much about winning. Rosario and Berrios were both this type of player as well and it may be why Duffey is gone instead of Emilio (Game Over We Lose) Pagan.

I have no idea how he Pagan could still be on this roster no less used in an important situation (cough, last night in a 1-0 game) but Rocco has little feel for human emotion and doesnt understand that a man isnt a robot and blowing game after game bring a horrendous vibe to the ballpark, fans, dugout and certainly a player like Pagan feels that. I know I look away or try to stop watching when he is pitching. It is just too painful.

Rocco is a solid but not great manager. His lack of understading the psychology of players is best exemplified in his bullpen decisions. Of course this weakness is magnified in his playoff decisions pertaining to when a starter is taken out and who to put in. Last nights game was a perfect example of this. We may win that game if Fulmer is put in to start the 6th or if Gray stayed out to at least start the inning.

The rest of our season, and whether or not we win that elusive playoff game may depend on if Maki and Rocco can get this right more often than not., Start by not using Pagan in ANY competitive games. That is what the rest of the bullpen is for. Its not complicated. Go Twins

 

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Before he got hurt last he was doing some RPing. I'm not a big fan of Smeltzer and I don't think has amazing stuff but somehow he is certainly effective when healthy. Smeltzer was the most ready SP going into this season because he was a couple of weeks ahead the others in spring training and preformed very well in ST, Twins should have taken advantage of this and called up Smeltzer from the get go, at least team up with Winder in long relief. But the problem then as it is still is that "long relief" isn't in Baldelli's vocabulary. It's 1 SP + 4-5 short RPs to complete a game that's it. Actually I'd like to see 2 or 3 long RPs and even rotating in capable AAA SPs.

Like I've said earlier there're 5 short RPs I trust the rest aren't ready or are no good which should be sent down. Where we have proven MLB pitchers sent down or released, I was sad to see A Sanchez and Cotton let go after after they did such a fine job in their roles, They should have been kept along with Smeltzer to man long relief. I'd trust them to pitch quality innings, Winder & Ober could also be used there once they are healthy. It's also a great way to get young prospect like SWR feet wet when he's ready to make his move.

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I love Smeltzer as a guy, a story, and a gamer. And frankly, I was surprised this season when I saw his FB sitting in the low 90's and hitting 93 at times. He does some good things. But he doesn't seem to have a single pitch that is anything special. I think he's a very good option in the pen as a 1-3IP middle guy who would be a 3rd LH behind Thielbar and Moran. And for a re-worked BP that really, really needs to dump Pagan, and could really use a couple of arms you can count on to fill the middle innings without being a HR, high run allowed disaster, Smeltzer could be perfect for such a role. And his competitive nature might be perfect for such a role. AND, FWIW, they could really use a RH version as well, though I'm not sure who's left to fill that role at this point due to attrition. Sands MIGHT be that guy....BUT....

....due to attrition, the Twins just might want to keep Smeltzer and Sands stretched out to offer up SOMETHING akin to a "decent" SP option for injury and any potential double headers. In the long run, I do think Smeltzer might fit well in the pen. And it's very possible that Sands will make a Jax-like move to the pen. But do they want to do that NOW? (I think Sands' recent promotion might be temporary). 

Said it multiple times this week and will say it again, I really, really hope Aaron Sanchez will stay with the organization. He was once good, and then injury and loss of everything hit and a once top looking arm struggled. He looked awful with Washington earlier this year and was cut. He looked very good with St Paul. He pitched well and looked good in his ONE start with the Twins. I know it was against Detroit, but the stuff looked good. And recently signed Peacock seemed to rebound in AAA this year, but never got a shot with KC for whatever reason. I'm not saying EITHER guy is going to be a sudden difference maker. Peacock MIGHT have a couple really good months left in his arm. But at 30yrs old, Sanchez has a CHANCE to be a legitimate rebound candidate who finally gets healthy and gets his game together, even if it's as a fill-in starter or possible BP conversion. 

With the upgrades to the pen, they're still a good 2 arms away from having a couple of SOMEONES who are good enough, to just fill the middle innings. And clearly that wasn't the released Duffey, and Smith, nor the "needs to be gone" Pagan. Smeltzer just might be one of those guys. I just don't know if they don't want to keep him stretched out for now.  

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8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Smeltzer got sent down because he wasn't that good to start with and was falling off the table. He had a 1.50 ERA in May (4 starts), a 4.10 Era in June (5 starts), and a 8.76 ERA in July (3 starts). He doesn't throw hard and he doesn't appear to have an out pitch to rely on when he's in trouble. The league figured him out and he wasn't able to make the necessary adjustments to be successful. Criticizing the manager doesn't help and may have accelerated his demise, but he simply wasn't pitching at an acceptable level so he had to go back to AAA. It's as simple as that.

Now we can debate whether Bundy or particularly Archer's any better, Still, Bundy has had some good starts and usually gives the team a chance to win. Archer, not so much in my view, but he does have better stuff than Smeltzer. Anyway, Smeltzer will get another try when inevitably somebody gets hurt

I mean I would say a 3 start sample size seems pretty ****ing harsh especially when most of that is one bad start. 

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Sanchez came up instead of Smeltzer because of where they fell in the rotation. Sands is up until they can add back in Moran, wh has to spend time in the minors. Smeltzer is that extra starter who can be recalled for a double-header (hopefully) or if somsthing happens in the rotation.

Could he stay in the mix for 2023, be it long relief/ They would have to keep him on the 40-man, and possibly overpay him (as they have Cave, Cotton and Minaya so they could send him up and down in 2023 and not just lose him to another team).

Being a lefty gives him lots of value. It is just "how to use him - long relief, short relief, 5th starter).

 

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Smeltzer appears to be dominant against lesser teams, but gets killed by good ones. Not sure how that pans out in a starting rotation, but he certainly seems to fit in spot starts, so maybe long relief would work. Another possible would be to start a guy like Archer, go once through the lineup, then bring in Smelter, a completely different look. If Archer gets through 3 innings and Smeltzer gets through 4, that gets you to setup / closer territory. 

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21 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

I have a better idea. Smeltzer starts with Archer as his piggyback.

I have been thinking this all year.  Why not get him up in the first or second innings of Archer's starts.  By the forth inning he will be all warmed up as if he was starting and be ready to go.  Also seems like a good idea as the opponent may have their lineup set with lefty's for Archer and then Smeltzer can upset the apple cart with facing left handers.

I see no reason why we can't use Archer as an opener and come back with Smeltzer.

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On 8/5/2022 at 8:50 PM, Craig Arko said:

Odds are pretty good there will be a need for his services before the end of the season.

He needs to be on the Roster by the end of this month for playoffs. My assumption was he was tiring and maybe losing velocity, so he was going down for 3-4 weeks to re-charge? He’s a solid 3-4 innings guy in a playoff game and could be a solid 2 inning guy for rest of regular season in spots out of bullpen.

My assumption is the Twins will not have a “bullpen start” in the playoffs but rather a starter only going 3+ innings - replaced by next starter going 3, etc. (Bundy-Smelzer-Archer) This could be a good option to rest bullpen and get effective innings from these guys!

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How about dropping Correa to 5th with Miranda behind him……maybe he sees some better pitches and gets going? Buxton at lead-off with Arraez protecting him, then Polanco, Gordon, Correa, Miranda, Kepler, Urshella, “Catcher”………..seems like a better blended left/right line-up and we break up Correa-Buxton-Kepler going 1-11 a whole bunch of days in the 2,3,4 spots. Need some energy infusion into line-up and Dog Days are just starting.

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19 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Smeltzer appears to be dominant against lesser teams, but gets killed by good ones. Not sure how that pans out in a starting rotation, but he certainly seems to fit in spot starts, so maybe long relief would work. Another possible would be to start a guy like Archer, go once through the lineup, then bring in Smelter, a completely different look. If Archer gets through 3 innings and Smeltzer gets through 4, that gets you to setup / closer territory. 

That's because of small sample sizes. Smeltzer's xFIP is consistently bad against everybody. He's a AAAA guy, to be honest.
 

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11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

That's because of small sample sizes. Smeltzer's xFIP is consistently bad against everybody. He's a AAAA guy, to be honest.
 

I agree. That’s what the Dodgers concluded and that’s why we have him. He’s a nice guy to have for a spot start, be the second game of the doubleheader guy, or even come up and be in the rotation for two or three weeks when someone gets hurt. It seems pretty unlikely that Smeltzer will ever be a long-term piece of a starting rotation or even of a bullpen on a contending team. I suspect that after the season he will be faced with the choice of another year like this one going up and down between the Bigs and AAA or going to a weaker team where he can start in the back end of a second division rotation. It’s actually a bit of a tough choice, win or play? I think it will probably boil down to how much someone is willing to pay him as a back end starter for a team like the Angels, Rockies, Pirates, etc.

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1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree. That’s what the Dodgers concluded and that’s why we have him. He’s a nice guy to have for a spot start, be the second game of the doubleheader guy, or even come up and be in the rotation for two or three weeks when someone gets hurt. It seems pretty unlikely that Smeltzer will ever be a long-term piece of a starting rotation or even of a bullpen on a contending team. I suspect that after the season he will be faced with the choice of another year like this one going up and down between the Bigs and AAA or going to a weaker team where he can start in the back end of a second division rotation. It’s actually a bit of a tough choice, win or play? I think it will probably boil down to how much someone is willing to pay him as a back end starter for a team like the Angels, Rockies, Pirates, etc.

Any player with competitive spirit will choose the "play" option, figuring he is one tweak away from sustained excellence that will make his old team regret not sticking with him.  Play, prove you belong, and be part of a new team on the upswing (or be traded to a contender).

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First, the Twins only go to a long relief roll if game is way out of hand early on.  Then they will generally burn the end of pen guy for 2 to 3 innings, but rarely will they look to have a guy pitch more than that out of the pen.  Could Smeltzer be a long relief guy sure, but Twins do not like to have "long" relief guys unless you are losing big.  Smeltzer walks too many guys and gives up way too many HR to be a high leverage pen arm, so you really only want him to come in when losing big.  I would not want to waste a pen spot on a guy you only want to through out there when losing big.  

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