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What did we think of Alex Kirilloff return?


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Okay, I know it was only 2 games, plus 1 at-bat so hard to make much of a decision.  That being said, from what I saw he was looking much more like the hitter we thought he would be this year, and the ball sounded like it did last year when he was slugging the ball, and not like he did in the early returns this year.  He did go only 2 for 10, actually raising his average, but the two hits were doubles.  Both of which were hard hit, and most likely the two hardest hit balls he had all year, I do not have the numbers on that. 

I did not see every at bat, games were on too late for me, but he just looked like was a different player than he was when he was swinging when he first started the year.  He took at least one tough called strike out that was right on the edge and could have been called a ball.  I have always like him and hope he has learned to play with his wrist issue.  We could use some pop in our line up that he could provide.  

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I haven't seen any AB live, but I think it was time to call him back up.  He seemed to have found his stroke in St. Paul, so it's just a matter of him getting acclimated with big league pitching again.  He does look better than he did earlier in the season.  More confident, favoring the wrist less.  He seems to finish his swing better now.

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Kirriloff's situation reminds me of that old joke about the two guys in the woods who accidentally startle a bear. The bear turns on them and gets ready to charge. One of the guys bends over and begins to change his shoes into something he can run in better. The other guy says "don't wait, we have to outrun the bear". The guy changing his shoes looks up and says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you."

Kirilloff looked to have some pretty good potential over the weekend although far from a sure thing. He doesn't need to be great to stay with the Twins, He just needs to be better than either Celestino, Miranda or Larnach. One of those four is likely to go down to AAA when Polanco is ready to come off the IL on Thursday. Right now, Miranda, Celestino and Kirilloff are all outrunning Larnach. I think it's Larnach back to AAA by the end of the week. We will get to see a lot of Kirilloff in the next few days to see if he's still running fast enough.

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You learn in AAA, if the coaches are worth a dime, the Big Show is not for learning.

How well he does with a month or two will show if he major league material; if he does well there over that time but comes back up and still does poorly, probably more like Jake Cave than anything.

When Cave first came up he did real well but time showed not well enough.

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33 minutes ago, RpR said:

You learn in AAA, if the coaches are worth a dime, the Big Show is not for learning.

How well he does with a month or two will show if he major league material; if he does well there over that time but comes back up and still does poorly, probably more like Jake Cave than anything.

When Cave first came up he did real well but time showed not well enough.

10 ABs was enough for you to determine he's not ready? That is efficient. 

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14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

10 ABs was enough for you to determine he's not ready? That is efficient. 

Yup, the majors are not where you can do badly till you are so bad they say good-bye, of course they did that with Jake Cave.

Right now they are still a leading team, to let wishful thinking be part of reason they are no longer a leading team is silly.

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6 minutes ago, RpR said:

Yup, the majors are not where you can do badly till you are so bad they say good-bye, of course they did that with Jake Cave.

Right now they are still a leading team, to let wishful thinking be part of reason they are no longer a leading team is silly.

So any young player gets 10 ABs to decide if they're ready or not? How many hits in those 10 ABs do they need to establish they're ready? 3 for 10 means you're hitting .300 so they're good? Or does it have to be 4 or 5 for their first 10?

Does an average exit velo of 96.2 show that a young guy is hitting the ball hard and is possibly ready or is it strictly getting 3+ (or whatever your cutoff is) hits in their first 10 ABs? Does hitting 5 balls over 97 MPH (98.6, 99.6, 108.8, 104.7, and 97.2 to be exact) suggest they're ready, or is it strictly about batting average?  

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41 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

So any young player gets 10 ABs to decide if they're ready or not? How many hits in those 10 ABs do they need to establish they're ready? 3 for 10 means you're hitting .300 so they're good? Or does it have to be 4 or 5 for their first 10?

Does an average exit velo of 96.2 show that a young guy is hitting the ball hard and is possibly ready or is it strictly getting 3+ (or whatever your cutoff is) hits in their first 10 ABs? Does hitting 5 balls over 97 MPH (98.6, 99.6, 108.8, 104.7, and 97.2 to be exact) suggest they're ready, or is it strictly about batting average?  

He has had 39 at bats and so far the have all looked similar,  you can have hope, against hope but that is not how it works in the Majors, they did that with Cave.

I am not a fan of Larnach but he was humming right along with his bat, now he is in a funk but Kirilloff has not been even close to what Larnach was/or is.

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21 minutes ago, RpR said:

He has had 39 at bats and so far the have all looked similar,  you can have hope, against hope but that is not how it works in the Majors, they did that with Cave.

I am not a fan of Larnach but he was humming right along with his bat, now he is in a funk but Kirilloff has not been even close to what Larnach was/or is.

Kirilloff has had 10 healthy at bats after spending a month absolutely destroying AAA pitching. Who else are they supposed to play right now? What can a young player possibly do to earn a chance at the major league level if an 1.106 OPS in AAA after being one of the 50 best prospects in all of baseball isn't good enough?

If you think his most recent 10 PAs look like the first 32 he had at the beginning of the year you've never watched baseball. Half of his PAs since he's been back from St Paul have ended with him hitting a ball harder Giancarlo Stanton's league leading average of 96.5. His average exit velocity since being back is 96.2. Suggesting that he's looked anything like his injured performance at the beginning of the year is absolutely ridiculous. 

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Kirilloff looked different to me than before he was sent down. He took some good swings and looked much more engaged. The results will follow. Alex looked very similar last weekend to his approach in St. Paul, just needs more barrels. He is a good first baseman and a ball player; I'll take him on my team.

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IF when Kirilloff's batting average is above and stays above Larnach's , they their is reason to send Larnach down; before that would be bizarre, at best.

When Garlick comes back , some one is going down, who depends on the strange way the Twins system works; and those who think Sano is not coming back, dream on.

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17 minutes ago, RpR said:

IF when Kirilloff's batting average is above and stays above Larnach's , they their is reason to send Larnach down; before that would be bizarre, at best.

When Garlick comes back , some one is going down, who depends on the strange way the Twins system works; and those who think Sano is not coming back, dream on.

Garlick was activated Sunday. 

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10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

So any young player gets 10 ABs to decide if they're ready or not?

Where is this narrative coming from? Both Alex Kirrilloff and Trevor Larnach have had 254 and 413 career ABs, respectively.

Kirrilloff is batting .240 with 8 HRs in those 254 ABs, and Larnach has compiled a .228 batting average with 12 HRs in his 413 ABs.

In short: both have given a real opportunity - not just a cup of coffee - to earn a starting role with this team, and both have frankly been pretty darn disappointing. Throw in Ryan Jeffers and we have 3 top Twins prospects who have received a ton of chances and none of them are doing jack squat. These guys are 24, 25 years old. Luis Arraez is 25 years old - he didn't need 413 ABs to prove he was a major leaguer. Most of the time, good players show you who they are within a half season of ABs. 

For every Byron Buxton (guys who take years to develop) there are 1,000 Bobby Kieltys and 1,000 Paul Sorrentos. The odds say that it's far more likely that Kirilloff and Larnach aren't going to make it.

Watching people lining up with excuses for these guys every week is getting a little old. At some point we are going to need some results. These guys were supposed to produce like Rosario and maybe even carry this team from time to time. It's time to be honest: they've given us nothing but headaches and disappointment. 

If I had to pick one to stay on the team, I guess I'd pick Kirilloff but that's more because of what I've seen from Larnach and Jeffers than anything else.

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We need to play Kirilloff as much as possible...or at least as much as the Roc will let him play. We need to find out if the wrist is ok, and if it is, whether or not he can handle major league pitching. He and Larnach both have to play as much as possible, to see if we've actually got a couple guys who can help us long term. 

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42 minutes ago, bighat said:

Luis Arraez is 25 years old - he didn't need 413 ABs to prove he was a major leaguer.

And yet 75% of the posts on here prior to the season were saying 'get rid of Arraez in a trade' as he doesn't have a position, doesn't have power, doesn't have speed, etc. Now, everyone loves him. Give Kirilloff and other rookies the same chance to prove themselves or we will just be a farm system for the rest of MLB.

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42 minutes ago, bighat said:

Where is this narrative coming from? Both Alex Kirrilloff and Trevor Larnach have had 254 and 413 career ABs, respectively.

Kirrilloff is batting .240 with 8 HRs in those 254 ABs, and Larnach has compiled a .228 batting average with 12 HRs in his 413 ABs.

In short: both have given a real opportunity - not just a cup of coffee - to earn a starting role with this team, and both have frankly been pretty darn disappointing. Throw in Ryan Jeffers and we have 3 top Twins prospects who have received a ton of chances and none of them are doing jack squat. These guys are 24, 25 years old. Luis Arraez is 25 years old - he didn't need 413 ABs to prove he was a major leaguer. Most of the time, good players show you who they are within a half season of ABs. 

For every Byron Buxton (guys who take years to develop) there are 1,000 Bobby Kieltys and 1,000 Paul Sorrentos. The odds say that it's far more likely that Kirilloff and Larnach aren't going to make it.

Watching people lining up with excuses for these guys every week is getting a little old. At some point we are going to need some results. These guys were supposed to produce like Rosario and maybe even carry this team from time to time. It's time to be honest: they've given us nothing but headaches and disappointment. 

If I had to pick one to stay on the team, I guess I'd pick Kirilloff but that's more because of what I've seen from Larnach and Jeffers than anything else.

Alex Kirilloff has been hurt for the majority of his time in the bigs. You're completely Ignoring that. When Kirilloff was healthy last year he was hitting missiles all over the field and was one of the best bats in the lineup. Then he hurt his wrist and fell off dramatically before having surgery. When he came back this year he was clearly not swinging pain free and went back down. Got a shot and worked through his swing before absolutely demolishing AAA pitching. I've given his exit velo numbers in his 10 healthy ABs this year. That's where the narrative is coming from.

Pretending that his first stint this year was an indication of his healthy performance is naive at best. Wrist surgery is a legitimate reason for him to not have results. You're completely ignoring all context of the situation. So, yes, the correct context is that he's had 10 healthy ABs at the major league level this year and in 5 of those he's hit the ball over 97 MPH. Acting like he should've established himself as an elite bat while battling a wrist injury is a ridiculous stance.

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Kirilloff needs a few weeks' worth of consistent playing to determine his value to our future. Garlick has been given the opportunities, Celestino, Miranda also. So it is time to answer the question about his Twins future. I'd like to see him succeed. I do not understand why a lot of discussion is not centered around Jeffers. He is one half of our catching staff. He cannot hit. He does not throw well. All we hear is the pitch framing. I guarantee that in 162 games in any season that a catcher can be found that can do at least as well and hit better. GO TWINS!

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22 hours ago, wsnydes said:

I haven't seen any AB live, but I think it was time to call him back up.  He seemed to have found his stroke in St. Paul, so it's just a matter of him getting acclimated with big league pitching again.  He does look better than he did earlier in the season.  More confident, favoring the wrist less.  He seems to finish his swing better now.

Your comments intrigue me.  You start with "I haven't see any AB live" and then go on to say that he looks better than before he was sent down, is more confident and favoring his wrist less, and is finishing his swing better.  All these observations without seeing him?  Remarkable.  But beyond all of that, I agree that he had to be promoted.

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23 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Your comments intrigue me.  You start with "I haven't see any AB live" and then go on to say that he looks better than before he was sent down, is more confident and favoring his wrist less, and is finishing his swing better.  All these observations without seeing him?  Remarkable.  But beyond all of that, I agree that he had to be promoted.

Haven't seen ABs live doesn't mean hasn't seen ABs. Highlights and replays exist in this crazy 2022 world we live in 😜

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5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Haven't seen ABs live doesn't mean hasn't seen ABs. Highlights and replays exist in this crazy 2022 world we live in 😜

Highlights and replays usually show one swing.  I don't think that is sufficient to make blanket statements.

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Just now, terrydactyls said:

Highlights and replays usually show one swing.  I don't think that is sufficient to make blanket statements.

You can find highlights of basically every AB he had over the last month in AAA plus all 7 balls he put in play since being back. That feels like enough to make a statement about whether or not he's favoring his wrist like he was at the start of the year or if he's finishing his swing. Those were the statements made. I actually only need to see 1 swing to say "yeah, that swing was much more free and he finished that swing much better." I mean this thread is literally based on 10 ABs. Weird that you didn't complain about that, but have a problem with a statement that could be based on 7 swings seen on replay. And a replay of the game as a whole would show his entire at bats...

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43 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Your comments intrigue me.  You start with "I haven't see any AB live" and then go on to say that he looks better than before he was sent down, is more confident and favoring his wrist less, and is finishing his swing better.  All these observations without seeing him?  Remarkable.  But beyond all of that, I agree that he had to be promoted.

I've seen plenty of replays and game recaps of his PAs, but haven't seen many (if any) live as they happen.

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C'mon guys, context is critical. In a perfect development world Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda, Celestino, Gordon and Garlick would play every day and we'd have a pretty good idea of where they are going at the MLB level by the end of the season. Of course, if those guys were playing every day better players wouldn't be and the team would stink. The good news is we're contending for the division and the better players are going to play. 

The reality is we have 5 spots for those 6 guys on the MLB roster on this team. One of them is going to have to either be optioned or DFA'd when Polanco is ready to return unless someone gets injured. It seems unlikely that the DFA candidates (Gordon, Garlick) will go since they are likely to be claimed by another team. That leaves the other 4 with 3 chairs. Based upon performance, Miranda probably stays. Celestino is slumping but he plays CF so he has a leg up unless Gordon plays CF the days Buxton does not. I think the team is higher on Kirilloff's potential than either Larnach or Celestino. He stays, and one of the other two go.  Tough call but Larnach's inability to hit breaking balls tells me the should go back down to AAA. 

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