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Rocco Baldelli: suffering from success


The title alone is enough to make smoke blow out of the ears of some Twins fans. 

Go to any twins post or forum after a loss (or win somehow) and you can find a stream of Twins fans complaining about Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. 

Is this distain reasonable?

No. No It's not.

Now before I get into it, I'm not the biggest Rocco fan myself, but some of the things I see fans saying really confuse me. I've seen people calling for Paul Molitor back (who was fired for not winning) or people somehow wanting Joe Girardi (who also just got fired for not winning) to be hired. Seems to me wanting to hire managers who have been sent away by their own or other franchises isn't the best option. But hey what do I know? I'm just some fan typing on a computer, so lets just look at some objective facts.

Like it or not Rocco has been winning more than most Twins mangers

image.png.ddac7d3c04d8150427a14e8a2b390aa6.png

Here is the top managers historically for the Twins, sorted by winning percentage, I stopped at Paul Molitor just so you can see how much better he has been then the manger he replaced. As you can see, Rocco is near the top, and based off how this year is going that will only improve after the current season.

Now you might refute by saying "But he hasn't won a thing in the playoffs!" Which to be fair is true, but let me show you this:

image.png.fae89771b203a4a43b3cab96f2e33bc2.png

This is the entire list of mangers that have just made the playoffs, and 5 of them only made it once! That's 9 out of the total 31 managers in Twins history. Only 4 Twins mangers have made the post season more than once, and only 2 have either a .500 or above record in it, so forgive me if I don't believe fans should be made a Rocco for this.

Twins 2010s failures

The Twins were swept by (Who else) the Yankees in back-to-back post seasons in 2009 and 2010 respectively, The years that followed were not pretty. From 2011-2016 the Twins finished the season over .500 once, and had a combined record of 407-565 for a winning percentage of .418 over those 6 seasons. In 2017, miraculously the Twins made the playoffs*

*Made the Wildcard, which is technically to get into the playoffs, but you get my point.

with a 85-77 record. The Twins advanced to the play-in game to face (Who else) the Yankees. To absolutely no ones surprise, they lost 8-4. The following year they fell slightly back to the recent mean and finished the year 78-84, missing the post season, and deciding to part ways with then manager Paul Molitor.

The Twins spent the off season searching and decided on a fresh-faced manager from the upstart Tapa Bay Rays, Rocco Baldelli. He rewarded their hiring with the 2nd most wins ever in a Twins season, with 101 (trailing only 102 set in the 1965 season) Following that the Twins moved to the post season and....

Wait...

No....

They got matched up with the Yankees again.

So once again the Twins get swept in the playoffs by the Yankees in the ALDS 3-0.

The Twins once again won the Central Division in the shortened 2020 season, followed with another sweep (2-0) in the new Wildcard series against the Houston Astros. Following that they had their worst season in the Baldelli era so far finishing 73-89 and obviously missing the playoffs. 2022 has been another successful season so far with a 36-27 record.

Suffering from success

The Twins have historically not been a great team for the last decade, the success they are seeing under current manager Rocco Baldelli has been unheard of for a good amount of time. I truly believe that's why he gets so much flak. See its easier to ignore minute managerial decisions when the team is bad, there are just so many more things to complain about. With the Twins winning games and (generally speaking) having a decent roster, it gets much more difficult to find fault in the Twins season, which we all love to do clearly. So the easiest thing to find is, the manager. Managers are constantly under microscopes on winning teams, with ever major and minor decision being criticized heavily. Fans want to see success and the manager is at the forefront of the team.

I beg of angry Twins fans to take a step back, take away the emotions, and just truly appreciate that these smaller managerial decisions are our biggest worries. This Twins team is good and I truly believe we are contenders, that's not been a possible feeling with this franchise for a while.

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I despise Baldelli for handling the pitching staff far differently than I like and for babying players who get nicked up. 

 

Of course, I assume he is merely a pencil pusher for the front office's wishes. I despise them equally.

 

Mostly, I hate his demeanor. It's entirely possible he is a master motivator internally but he does not motivate me to want to like him.

 

People may think that is too harsh and I'm not being fair but that's how I feel and he is going to have to do something extraordinary to change my OPINION.

 

Good write up, though!

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46 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

I despise Baldelli for handling the pitching staff far differently than I like and for babying players who get nicked up. 

 

Of course, I assume he is merely a pencil pusher for the front office's wishes. I despise them equally.

 

Mostly, I hate his demeanor. It's entirely possible he is a master motivator internally but he does not motivate me to want to like him.

 

People may think that is too harsh and I'm not being fair but that's how I feel and he is going to have to do something extraordinary to change my OPINION.

 

Good write up, though!

you despise a human for managing the people who work for him differently than you would? wow.

Everything in that post is just mean spirited, frankly. 

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I appreciate this post a lot. Rocco may not be charismatic or super-likeable, but I don't think we can deny that the Twins have been for the most part very good over the years that he has managed them. Sure, not all of that is on him (most of it probably isn't), but neither are the downs. 

It is easy to nitpick his pitching decisions, but for the most part the analytics-based decision making, which almost certainly comes directly for the front office, has been working. I think the post hits the nail on the head - if we were a terrible team, no one would really care about these decisions. But since we have a very good team, he is an easy target for the critics to criticize. 

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1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

you despise a human for managing the people who work for him differently than you would? wow.

Everything in that post is just mean spirited, frankly. 

You're correct, despise was a poor word choice. I'll substitute "strongly disagree".

 

I'll accept your criticism on that post. Thanks for pointing out how awful that came across.

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This article just confirms what I've thought all along. We should've brought back Bucky Harris.

Honestly, I appreciate this article and I like Rocco. I genuinely like him. I think he's a decent man, and I think he puts effort and thought into his work, on the analytics side and on the player relationships side. If he wasn't managing this team, I don't think Buxton would've resigned and I don't think Correa would have taken the chance to come here for a short stay (maybe a longer stay, too).

I would want to work for Rocco. BUT ... I'm not sure I would want to "go to war" with him in a battle. Rocco understands the big picture of a long season very well. I'm not yet convinced he understands the way to lead a team into the postseason. It's not that his teams have lost postseason series (sadly, that's almost expected against big payroll teams), it's that they haven't even won a single game, and they've looked overmatched and lifeless in every one of their postseason games so far. It's been embarrassing.

I wanted Rocco fired after the 2020 series against the Astros. This season has made me think I was wrong, but as for his inability to spark competitive play in a postseason series ... well, I'm hoping to be proven wrong again.

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22 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

You're correct, despise was a poor word choice. I'll substitute "strongly disagree".

 

I'll accept your criticism on that post. Thanks for pointing out how awful that came across.

It's easy to post something we didn't mean. I certainly have communicated poorly at times. 

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5 hours ago, notoriousgod71 said:

I despise Baldelli for handling the pitching staff far differently than I like and for babying players who get nicked up. 

 

Of course, I assume he is merely a pencil pusher for the front office's wishes. I despise them equally.

 

Mostly, I hate his demeanor. It's entirely possible he is a master motivator internally but he does not motivate me to want to like him.

 

People may think that is too harsh and I'm not being fair but that's how I feel and he is going to have to do something extraordinary to change my OPINION.

 

Good write up, though!

I heard an interview on satellite radio with a guy from Fangraphs I believe.  He specifically singled out  Baldelli's handling of the pitching staff and gave him high praise.  The fact that you would do it differently is far from proof he is doing it wrong.

BTW ... Pay attention to what the people around him including the players say about him.  Every person he has worked with sings his praises.  His players, coaches, and people outside the organization respect him and speak very highly of his baseball IQ and how he handles players in general.  

Fans thinking they know how to manage or coach better than the managers and coaches is almost a tradition in professional sports.

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1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

This article just confirms what I've thought all along. We should've brought back Bucky Harris.

Honestly, I appreciate this article and I like Rocco. I genuinely like him. I think he's a decent man, and I think he puts effort and thought into his work, on the analytics side and on the player relationships side. If he wasn't managing this team, I don't think Buxton would've resigned and I don't think Correa would have taken the chance to come here for a short stay (maybe a longer stay, too).

I would want to work for Rocco. BUT ... I'm not sure I would want to "go to war" with him in a battle. Rocco understands the big picture of a long season very well. I'm not yet convinced he understands the way to lead a team into the postseason. It's not that his teams have lost postseason series (sadly, that's almost expected against big payroll teams), it's that they haven't even won a single game, and they've looked overmatched and lifeless in every one of their postseason games so far. It's been embarrassing.

I wanted Rocco fired after the 2020 series against the Astros. This season has made me think I was wrong, but as for his inability to spark competitive play in a postseason series ... well, I'm hoping to be proven wrong again.

The playoffs is basically the huge glaring issue with him. I've been known to heir on the side of defending him in most scenarios but I completely agree the Twins have looked completely outmatched in the playoffs under him. Players do really seem to enjoy playing under him though so I've always wondered what the issue is come playoffs.

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1 minute ago, Jack Griffin said:

The playoffs is basically the huge glaring issue with him. I've been known to heir on the side of defending him in most scenarios but I completely agree the Twins have looked completely outmatched in the playoffs under him. Players do really seem to enjoy playing under him though so I've always wondered what the issue is come playoffs.

Playoffs are such a small sample size for a given year. The Yankees series in 2019 was a letdown, but that Twins team was a historic offense that managed to score 7 runs in 3 games. Against the Astros in 2020 the pitching staff gave up a total of 2 earned runs in the 2 game series. Maybe Rocco pulled Berrios too soon in game 2 of that series, but that is the only real criticism I can find for how he has managed in the playoffs.

Since Rocco has been at the helm, the Twins have tried so many new things to try to get over the hump that Rocco inherited. Not everything has worked, but Twins baseball has been must-watch baseball for the past 5 years or so, which was not the case for a large part of the 2010s. So much emphasis placed on an unfortunate streak that discounts 6+ months of high quality baseball year after year.

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I'm going to give you a negative take so you can all rip on me too.  I can't believe the readers of this article are going to let the general logic or message of the article stand.  Maybe because it's the same readers that were Terry Ryan excusers, or the bunch that still think Sano is wonderful, or the bunch of readers 6 weeks ago who wanted to trade Arraez because he didn't have a position.  What I am saying, is I frustratingly disagree so often with the commentors of this site.  I still appreciate the site but I just don't get their takes on things.

Now back to the article.  The first argument was that Rocco is superior because he has a good regular season record.  One, its a small sample size, two, the margin over .500 is largely from one year, 2019, when all the stars aligned and almost the entire team had career years all at once.  You might never see that good fortune again.  To compare Rocco to other managers based on wins is extremely unfair.  They had different GMs to work with, they had different budgets, and most importantly, most had harder schedules.  Rocco is managing in a 5 team division, a division that is laughably terrible each year.  Rocco also had good luck with the Covid year limited (easier) schedule and a super collapse in the last week by the Sox.  

The second argument is that Rocco is great because of the playoff appearances, which is two.  It has never been easier to make the playoffs than it is right now.  To dismiss his 0-fer-playoffs record and praise his for his appearances is crazy.  2019 was a great year, sure, but Charlie Brown could have won that division by also just sitting around and waiting for another homer to go out. Add the odd 2020 year with an easy schedule (don't forget, they got to play the worst playoff team in 2020), and I just don't know how you can use this to argue Rocco's worth.  If Rocco was truly great, as implied in the article, then surely, he'd win a playoff game, right? 

The head-scratching moves from Rocco continue and they might win despite them. But the two arguments discussed above are puzzling to justify the argument that Rocco is somehow one of the best. 

One final thought:  The current front office didn't want Molitor, so he was never ever going to get a fair shot.  Rocco is their guy, so getting rid of Rocco when the time comes, is going to take an act of God.   

 

  

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1 hour ago, JW24 said:

Playoffs are such a small sample size for a given year. The Yankees series in 2019 was a letdown, but that Twins team was a historic offense that managed to score 7 runs in 3 games. Against the Astros in 2020 the pitching staff gave up a total of 2 earned runs in the 2 game series. Maybe Rocco pulled Berrios too soon in game 2 of that series, but that is the only real criticism I can find for how he has managed in the playoffs.

Since Rocco has been at the helm, the Twins have tried so many new things to try to get over the hump that Rocco inherited. Not everything has worked, but Twins baseball has been must-watch baseball for the past 5 years or so, which was not the case for a large part of the 2010s. So much emphasis placed on an unfortunate streak that discounts 6+ months of high quality baseball year after year.

Last year definitely  was not must watch baseball...though I did suffer threw it.

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Baldelli has done a decent job with the Twins so far. He was the right fit for the unicorn that was the 2019 regular season. 2021 didn't go well and I think Baldelli has to take some blame for the poor performance. However, I think Rocco adjusted to the non-competitive team. I really have no opinion about 2020 because the season was so weird due to the schedule and starting so late in the year.

I think Rocco has used his bullpen heavily without overusing anyone. He is pretty quick with the hook for the starters, but it seems that is necessitated by the fragility of the arms in the Twins' starting rotation. I think he's more tuned in to the right amount of rest for players and using his bench. All in all, he's done a good job.

As far as postseason, it is pretty hard to give someone no blame when their team loses six straight games. I do believe the Astros were better than their record in the crazy 2020 season and the Twins' pitching staff was depleted in 2019. Let's see if the third time is the charm this year. The more I see the White Sox struggle this year, the more I think the Twins are the best team in the Central. 

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3 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

I'm going to give you a negative take so you can all rip on me too.  I can't believe the readers of this article are going to let the general logic or message of the article stand.  Maybe because it's the same readers that were Terry Ryan excusers, or the bunch that still think Sano is wonderful, or the bunch of readers 6 weeks ago who wanted to trade Arraez because he didn't have a position.  What I am saying, is I frustratingly disagree so often with the commentors of this site.  I still appreciate the site but I just don't get their takes on things.

Now back to the article.  The first argument was that Rocco is superior because he has a good regular season record.  One, its a small sample size, two, the margin over .500 is largely from one year, 2019, when all the stars aligned and almost the entire team had career years all at once.  You might never see that good fortune again.  To compare Rocco to other managers based on wins is extremely unfair.  They had different GMs to work with, they had different budgets, and most importantly, most had harder schedules.  Rocco is managing in a 5 team division, a division that is laughably terrible each year.  Rocco also had good luck with the Covid year limited (easier) schedule and a super collapse in the last week by the Sox.  

The second argument is that Rocco is great because of the playoff appearances, which is two.  It has never been easier to make the playoffs than it is right now.  To dismiss his 0-fer-playoffs record and praise his for his appearances is crazy.  2019 was a great year, sure, but Charlie Brown could have won that division by also just sitting around and waiting for another homer to go out. Add the odd 2020 year with an easy schedule (don't forget, they got to play the worst playoff team in 2020), and I just don't know how you can use this to argue Rocco's worth.  If Rocco was truly great, as implied in the article, then surely, he'd win a playoff game, right? 

The head-scratching moves from Rocco continue and they might win despite them. But the two arguments discussed above are puzzling to justify the argument that Rocco is somehow one of the best. 

One final thought:  The current front office didn't want Molitor, so he was never ever going to get a fair shot.  Rocco is their guy, so getting rid of Rocco when the time comes, is going to take an act of God.   

Nobody here is saying he’s great. The OP never said he was great. The OP said he doesn’t deserve to be **** all over every single ****ing time this team falls.

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47 minutes ago, alexthegreat said:

Nobody here is saying he’s great. The OP never said he was great. The OP said he doesn’t deserve to be **** all over every single ****ing time this team falls.

This is a complete fabrication.

People have every right to have different opinions on the manager than the OP, and than you.

Few posters "**** all over him." 

They question moves, offer different opinions, and disagree with strategies.

As fans have been doing for about 150 years. Just like some fans wouldn't question the manager if he stole their wallet.

I think it'd be a lot better if the fans who don't like other fans' questions would offer reasons they agree with the manager, instead of attacking other fans.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think it'd be a lot better if the fans who don't like other fans' questions would offer reasons they agree with the manager, instead of attacking other fans.

 

 

I think it would be better if there wasn't this constant whining about anything and everything that occurs with the team.

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28 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

…..Few posters "**** all over [Rocco]." ….

 

Earlier today, there was a post pretty harshly asking the question of why Soto was activated yesterday, rather than Kirilloff. 

The first response was, “Because Rocco’s mind is on its own private island, surrounded by excel (sic) spread sheets (sic) and BP usage charts.”

The fourth response was, “…I’m not surprised as this FO makes very strange roster moves plus Rocco doesn’t seem to have a clue unless his spread sheets (sic) tell him what the clue is.”

You and others rightly called out these posters, naming that the decision in question wasn’t a Rocco decision, though he likely had input into it. (And, I’d add, today’s DFAing of Soto pretty much answered the question as to why he was activated rather than Kirilloff, but that’s another discussion.)

But to me, the two posts I quoted were examples of posters who “**** all over [Rocco].” I recognize that “few” is an imprecise term, but my perspective is that it happens pretty regularly. It seems there’s a lot more than just a few of takes that don’t really question moves or offer other opinions — they just call Rocco an “idiot” or some other condescending terms.

To put it another way — for various reasons, I’ve not been as active during Game Threads this year, but I’ve read a fair number of them after the fact. Similarly with the Game Recaps. In both cases, it feels like there’s been a lot of inappropriate bashing of Rocco (and by “inappropriate,” I’m meaning demeaning, not just a healthy difference of opinion).

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48 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Earlier today, there was a post pretty harshly asking the question of why Soto was activated yesterday, rather than Kirilloff. 

The first response was, “Because Rocco’s mind is on its own private island, surrounded by excel (sic) spread sheets (sic) and BP usage charts.”

The fourth response was, “…I’m not surprised as this FO makes very strange roster moves plus Rocco doesn’t seem to have a clue unless his spread sheets (sic) tell him what the clue is.”

You and others rightly called out these posters, naming that the decision in question wasn’t a Rocco decision, though he likely had input into it. (And, I’d add, today’s DFAing of Soto pretty much answered the question as to why he was activated rather than Kirilloff, but that’s another discussion.)

But to me, the two posts I quoted were examples of posters who “**** all over [Rocco].” I recognize that “few” is an imprecise term, but my perspective is that it happens pretty regularly. It seems there’s a lot more than just a few of takes that don’t really question moves or offer other opinions — they just call Rocco an “idiot” or some other condescending terms.

To put it another way — for various reasons, I’ve not been as active during Game Threads this year, but I’ve read a fair number of them after the fact. Similarly with the Game Recaps. In both cases, it feels like there’s been a lot of inappropriate bashing of Rocco (and by “inappropriate,” I’m meaning demeaning, not just a healthy difference of opinion).

What this beautiful human here said.  Say it again so the person you're responding to and TwinsDaily hears it again.  

Man ain't lying and he brought receipts.  Disagree with bringing in Theilbar and suggesting an alternative with data?  That's what TD was founded on.  

Twins can win and we get threads like this.  Go ahead.  Read it and tell me we're still doing analysis and fair criticism.  I don't see it.  It's a toxic part of this forum right now and I commend the OP for saying it out loud.

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After having read the way Molitor and Gardenhire were represented around here for years it should come as no surprise that Baldelli gets the same treatment, usually from the same people. Whoever one day succeeds Baldelli will too. The thinking behind this eludes me, but it seems pretty well ingrained.

I’ve learned to pay no attention to those people. It makes the experience of this place a bit more tolerable.

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16 hours ago, JW24 said:

So much emphasis placed on an unfortunate streak that discounts 6+ months of high quality baseball year after year.

All good points, but the emphasis on playoff performance is also pretty justified - it's why teams play the game. Playoffs may be the icing of a season, but if the frosting is rotten or sour on a cake, we tend to think of it as a bad cake, regardless of the quality of the spongy stuff below it.

However, I agree that Rocco isn't responsible for all 18 losses. He inherited 2/3rds of that awful streak. It's just sad that his teams have added on to it so effortlessly.

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10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I think it'd be a lot better if the fans who don't like other fans' questions would offer reasons they agree with the manager, instead of attacking other fans.

Those in support of how Rocco has managed the Twins since taking over offer reasons rooted in stats like winning percentage, or playoff appearances.

The fans who pose bad faith questions and offer up conjecture like "well, Rocco inherited the 2019 squad from Molitor" (even though Molitor finished in last with that team a year previous) and "I don't count the COVID season since it was weird" (even though every team dealt with the same situation) are allowed to regurgitate that in every forum they want and should not be surprised when the response they get is the same.

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10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I think it'd be a lot better if the fans who don't like other fans' questions would offer reasons they agree with the manager, instead of attacking other fans.

Indeed.  It's natural to have disagreements and sports debate is about as wide ranging and varied as politics.  But like politics, it would be helpful if people could disagree and debate in a civil and respectful manner.  That's not only more constructive, but far more entertaining and enjoyable as well.

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2019 doesn't count because Rocco did not "manage" the all time MLB home run record. 2020 doesn't count for obvious reasons. No question that Baldelli manages by the numbers and almost seems to detest starting pitchers in that he seems to relish yanking them before they can qualify for a win. I will say that the way the game is played today the list of pitchers in most box scores is almost as long as the "non pitchers" and more and more the non pitchers are asked to pitch. The classic example of analytics gone wild was a few days ago when Girardi intentionally walked a batter with a 1-2 count (playing the percentages as he said) to get a lefty on lefty matchup and the ensuing batter hit a game winning home run. Managers today don't seem to even watch the game, they just run the numbers sent down by the geeks behind computers many of whom have never played the game.

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How about we just take a birds eye view of this year. Pitching rotation blown apart by injuries and Covid and the lineup unsettled as well and they have a winning record and are in first place. 
 

That tells me he is probably doing a good job. I don’t agree with everything he does but he seems to be a really good person and highly intelligent. It’s also hard to know what he decides and what the FO decides. 

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20 minutes ago, Number3 said:

2019 doesn't count because Rocco did not "manage" the all time MLB home run record. 2020 doesn't count for obvious reasons. No question that Ball Delli manages by the numbers and almost seems to detest starting pitchers in that he seems to relish yanking them before they can qualify for a win. I will say that the way the game is played today the list of pitchers in most box scores is almost as long as the "non pitchers" and more and more the non pitchers are asked to pitch. The classic example of analytics gone wild was a few days ago when Girardi intentionally walked a batter with a 1-2 count (playing the percentages as he said) to get a lefty on lefty matchup and the ensuing batter hit a game winning home run. Managers today don't seem to even watch the game, they just run the numbers sent down by the geeks behind computers many of whom have never played the game.

Wasn't that Tony Old School LaRussa? 

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31 minutes ago, Number3 said:

2019 doesn't count because Rocco did not "manage" the all time MLB home run record. 2020 doesn't count for obvious reasons. No question that Ball Delli manages by the numbers and almost seems to detest starting pitchers in that he seems to relish yanking them before they can qualify for a win. I will say that the way the game is played today the list of pitchers in most box scores is almost as long as the "non pitchers" and more and more the non pitchers are asked to pitch. The classic example of analytics gone wild was a few days ago when Girardi intentionally walked a batter with a 1-2 count (playing the percentages as he said) to get a lefty on lefty matchup and the ensuing batter hit a game winning home run. Managers today don't seem to even watch the game, they just run the numbers sent down by the geeks behind computers many of whom have never played the game.

This is a monument to the kind of claptraps that are everywhere right now and exactly what @IndianaTwin was talking about.

In every recap, every game thread, every article, every conversation.  

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