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Even you feel we do not need a new starter, you can never have too much good pitching.  There are a couple of pitchers on the trading block and are expected to be traded.  The top prize would be Frankie Montas, with Luis Castillo as the fall back for teams.  There are others out there but going to talk about these two right now.  We all know Montas is going by deadline, the question will be to whom and for whom.  Castillo is expected to go to.  Both have 1.5 years of control now, so value is only going to go down if they are not traded this year, and both teams did full on fire sale. 

Montas is the number one pitcher out there, and having a good year overall. What would it take to get him, and should we give it up?  I think a close comparison would be Jose Berrios, Montas is older, with same amount of years of control at the possible trade, but I would argue Montas is slightly better pitcher.  One thing that concers me about Montas is his home road splits are slightly better in the pitcher park of Oakland, but not crazy different, and Berrios was much better at home over his career too.  So we got a teams high hitting prospect and high pitching prospect, both in AA.  I have heard some people float the trade of Montas for the same package.  Would that get it done now?  I do not think so.  

The reason I doubt Oakland would take same offer is Martin has not been amazing and most likely has dropped some down the prospect lists.  My guess Oakland wants Lewis in any deal, and will hold out for him, or send Montas somewhere else.  Would you give up Lewis, and a top pitching prospect?  If it was in the off-season I think most would have said yes, but after seeing how Lewis regained his top prospect form, I think many would say no now.  I am not saying we should or should not, but my guess to get Montas we have to give up Lewis, unless no other team is willing to come close Oakland asking price, which has reported to be very high for Montas.  They know they could really wait to next off-season if really needed to and get something in return. Right if a deal was going to be struck I see Lewis and either SWR or similar pitching prospect or Lewis and Emmual Rodriguez, who appears to be flying up prospect lists.

I think Castillo can be got for less, but not much.  He similar has better home splits, but he has pitched in a hitters park his whole career.  He has similar numbers to Montas, same age, same control and similar k rates, but Castillo slightly higher walk rates.  Really they are very similar stats and either could be a great get.  Castillo is coming off of injury and had late start to year.  I bet Reds have a similar asking price for now as well.  Would we give up Lewis for Castillo?  I doubt it, but my guess that is what the Reds will be asking for.  

If we could get either for giving up someone like Rodriguez, who was not high on lists coming into year, but looking like he will make huge jumps, but still a couple years away, and one of our many pitching prospects, I would pull the trigger right now.  If Lewis is needed for either deal to get done, I would hang up right away.  With not knowing what Correa future with team looks like, most likely he walks after this year, we should expect to need Lewis for next several years, but Rodriguez is far away.  I may be overvaluing him, as some rankings had him barely in our top 20 lists.  Noah Miller may be someone targeted too. If Martin gets the deals done and a lower prospect I am all for that too.  If Lewis is required I pass 100%.

Would anyone be willing to give up Lewis in the ultimate win this year move? I do not think either makes us a favorite to win, and even if they did, nothing says they would, and passing on years of what looks like hopeful great SS play for a 1.5 year rental of a top end starter is hard to do in my opinion. 

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14 minutes ago, Trov said:

Even you feel we do not need a new starter, you can never have too much good pitching.  There are a couple of pitchers on the trading block and are expected to be traded.  The top prize would be Frankie Montas, with Luis Castillo as the fall back for teams.  There are others out there but going to talk about these two right now.  We all know Montas is going by deadline, the question will be to whom and for whom.  Castillo is expected to go to.  Both have 1.5 years of control now, so value is only going to go down if they are not traded this year, and both teams did full on fire sale. 

Montas is the number one pitcher out there, and having a good year overall. What would it take to get him, and should we give it up?  I think a close comparison would be Jose Berrios, Montas is older, with same amount of years of control at the possible trade, but I would argue Montas is slightly better pitcher.  One thing that concers me about Montas is his home road splits are slightly better in the pitcher park of Oakland, but not crazy different, and Berrios was much better at home over his career too.  So we got a teams high hitting prospect and high pitching prospect, both in AA.  I have heard some people float the trade of Montas for the same package.  Would that get it done now?  I do not think so.  

The reason I doubt Oakland would take same offer is Martin has not been amazing and most likely has dropped some down the prospect lists.  My guess Oakland wants Lewis in any deal, and will hold out for him, or send Montas somewhere else.  Would you give up Lewis, and a top pitching prospect?  If it was in the off-season I think most would have said yes, but after seeing how Lewis regained his top prospect form, I think many would say no now.  I am not saying we should or should not, but my guess to get Montas we have to give up Lewis, unless no other team is willing to come close Oakland asking price, which has reported to be very high for Montas.  They know they could really wait to next off-season if really needed to and get something in return. Right if a deal was going to be struck I see Lewis and either SWR or similar pitching prospect or Lewis and Emmual Rodriguez, who appears to be flying up prospect lists.

I think Castillo can be got for less, but not much.  He similar has better home splits, but he has pitched in a hitters park his whole career.  He has similar numbers to Montas, same age, same control and similar k rates, but Castillo slightly higher walk rates.  Really they are very similar stats and either could be a great get.  Castillo is coming off of injury and had late start to year.  I bet Reds have a similar asking price for now as well.  Would we give up Lewis for Castillo?  I doubt it, but my guess that is what the Reds will be asking for.  

If we could get either for giving up someone like Rodriguez, who was not high on lists coming into year, but looking like he will make huge jumps, but still a couple years away, and one of our many pitching prospects, I would pull the trigger right now.  If Lewis is needed for either deal to get done, I would hang up right away.  With not knowing what Correa future with team looks like, most likely he walks after this year, we should expect to need Lewis for next several years, but Rodriguez is far away.  I may be overvaluing him, as some rankings had him barely in our top 20 lists.  Noah Miller may be someone targeted too. If Martin gets the deals done and a lower prospect I am all for that too.  If Lewis is required I pass 100%.

Would anyone be willing to give up Lewis in the ultimate win this year move? I do not think either makes us a favorite to win, and even if they did, nothing says they would, and passing on years of what looks like hopeful great SS play for a 1.5 year rental of a top end starter is hard to do in my opinion. 

I would not move Royce Lewis. He has superstar written all over him and we have 6 years team control. My proposal for Montas would be Kepler and Martin. If they don’t want Martin, then maybe Wallner. If I gave up Kepler and Wallner, I’d want an agreement from Montas to extend and maybe another player like Laureano. I think they should try something along those lines.

 

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20 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I would not move Royce Lewis. He has superstar written all over him and we have 6 years team control. My proposal for Montas would be Kepler and Martin. If they don’t want Martin, then maybe Wallner. If I gave up Kepler and Wallner, I’d want an agreement from Montas to extend and maybe another player like Laureano. I think they should try something along those lines.

 

I really like this concept. No way we move Lewis, but Martin I feel is expendable. I don't see space for him in our IF or OF and with his lack of power since going pro I'm wary. Even with Martin's struggles I still feel that he's valued over Wallner at this point. I also don't see a world where they give us Montas and Laureano for just Kepler and Martin/Wallner. With our crowded OF I wouldn't necessarily want him either! I'd ask for AJ Puk and throw in another prospect at the bottom third of our top 30. I've been looking for an excuse to suggest moving Keoni Cavaco before he becomes dead weight, I think this is it!🤣

All jokes aside I think there's a real opportunity for a big deal between the A's and the Twins to come to fruition in the next 6 weeks or so.

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The Twins need to look hard at guys that will be minor league free agents come seasons end, and also players up for the Rule 5 draft.

Last year, for example, we would've needed some arm twisting to include Balazovic and Sands in any trade, not to mention Miranda.

Now, another team may not be looking at any of those three and salivating about potential.

There is virtually no one on St. Paul's roster than another team would consider in a deal. At best, you could throw in Henriquez.

People would be looking at our AA prospects on the cusp of advancing to AAA, which means Simeon Woods-Richardson, Martin, Wallner, Varland just as starters. A couple of those names, and maybe another prospect doing really good in the system.

Which means the Twins have to look carefully at who they have coming up, and who they have going off the 40-man roster come 2023, and even what that roster will look like in 2024.

You trade your future if you can afford it with depth. The only way you trade Lewis would be if Martin was lights out, and you thought you had a chance of keeping Correa another season.

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1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

I would not move Royce Lewis. He has superstar written all over him and we have 6 years team control. My proposal for Montas would be Kepler and Martin. If they don’t want Martin, then maybe Wallner. If I gave up Kepler and Wallner, I’d want an agreement from Montas to extend and maybe another player like Laureano. I think they should try something along those lines.

 

ON the MLB trade simulator, Laureano is 60.7, and Montas is 37. Kepler is 30.5, Sands is 1.6, Wallner 3, SWR 5.4, Lewis 33.2.

So based on this the A's would would laugh and hang up on the twins with an offer like this and why would the A's want a 29 year old fielder.

As of right now if I was the twins I won't trade for either pitcher.

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3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I would not move Royce Lewis. He has superstar written all over him and we have 6 years team control. My proposal for Montas would be Kepler and Martin. If they don’t want Martin, then maybe Wallner. If I gave up Kepler and Wallner, I’d want an agreement from Montas to extend and maybe another player like Laureano. I think they should try something along those lines.

 

NO WAY would Oakland trade for Kepler in any deal, unless we were giving him for cash just so they could look to flip him to someone else.  Doing a Kepler and prospect 'x', for Montas is like doing just prospect 'x'.  What would Oakland do with Kepler?  

Part the point of my post was to bring up the fact that many fans want us to make a move, but to get a top SP, we need to give up talent, and right now I believe it would take Lewis, or some younger guys with high upside minimum.  Guys like Kepler, or other already late 20's guys will not get it done.  

Miranda could move the needle some with other packages as well.  I still think both A's and Reds will be holding out asking for big to see if any team bites.  They will play the game of chicken and try to make a bidding war.  Some team might bite.  Many felt the Jays overpaid for Berrios based on prospect values listed.  

I also want to remind all fans, that just because you would think some deal is a fair deal does not mean the other side agrees.  

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Agree both that Oakland and Cincinnati would want Lewis AND agree that that's a hard NO. Pretty much anyone else should be available except Miranda on the prospect list.  How about Celestino, Larnach or Kirilloff plus SVR, Sands or Balazovic? MLB ready bat plus higher end pitching prospect. Or the reverse, Ober plus Martin or Steer?  Young MLB starting pitcher plus higher end prospect?

Unlikely we trade for either one unless the FO really believes they can sign them to a longer term deal. This team is fun, but it isn't one starter away from WS contention this year. Better to play this year out with who we got, with maybe adding a bullpen piece, and then see if one more starter could take us really into contention. If so, make a move over the winter. 

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Montas is worth a try. The Twins have some prospects that any team would see as fair value depending on their needs. Conversations will need to continue and perhaps some combination could be unlocked to benefit Oakland. They look like they might look for an infielder, an outfielder, and a couple of pitchers. I actually doubt that Lewis is part of the ask at this point. Losing good prospects  never feels right but the decision would consider positional depth as well as individual talent. I'm holding Raya, Miller, and E. Rodriguez from Ft.Myers, Festa and Headrick from Cedar Rapids, Canterino from Wichita, and Kirilloff from St. Paul. There are many others I want to hold like Wallner, Steer, Balazovic), but I'm listening to what Oakland has in mind. Castillo and Mahle? No thanks to the Cincy guys unless for lesser rated prospects.

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5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

ON the MLB trade simulator, Laureano is 60.7, and Montas is 37. Kepler is 30.5, Sands is 1.6, Wallner 3, SWR 5.4, Lewis 33.2.

So based on this the A's would would laugh and hang up on the twins with an offer like this and why would the A's want a 29 year old fielder.

As of right now if I was the twins I won't trade for either pitcher.

Agreed. No idea why Oakland would deal for Kepler, or why a contender would deal Kepler.....

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8 hours ago, TeJayDubz said:

I really like this concept. No way we move Lewis, but Martin I feel is expendable. I don't see space for him in our IF or OF and with his lack of power since going pro I'm wary. Even with Martin's struggles I still feel that he's valued over Wallner at this point. I also don't see a world where they give us Montas and Laureano for just Kepler and Martin/Wallner. With our crowded OF I wouldn't necessarily want him either! I'd ask for AJ Puk and throw in another prospect at the bottom third of our top 30. I've been looking for an excuse to suggest moving Keoni Cavaco before he becomes dead weight, I think this is it!🤣

All jokes aside I think there's a real opportunity for a big deal between the A's and the Twins to come to fruition in the next 6 weeks or so.

I don't believe OAK will trade Laureano because he has a few years of availability yet. If they do, they'll want a really big return. How deep we are in the OF, we shouldn't be interested in him either.

I would not trade Lewis for the same reason everybody has stated. Martin is still a very good prospect, he's a good hitter, flexible and a good glove he just not a very good SS. OAK should still be interested in him plus a couple of good pitching prospects could get the job done.

I like both Castillo & Montas. Castillo would be cheaper but I'd still take Montas because I'd think it'd be easier to extend Montas.

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Seriously, why would Oakland or CINCY want to trade right now? If they wait until closer to the trade deadline, some desperate  team that thinks one of these pitchers would be the final piece to a World Series trip would likely overpay here.

These Twins need more than one more decent starting pitcher to contend. 

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11 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I would not move Royce Lewis. He has superstar written all over him and we have 6 years team control. My proposal for Montas would be Kepler and Martin. If they don’t want Martin, then maybe Wallner. If I gave up Kepler and Wallner, I’d want an agreement from Montas to extend and maybe another player like Laureano. I think they should try something along those lines.

 

Neither of these guys is gonna be moved without pitching going back.

 

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If we can actually just swamp Martin and Woods-Richardson for Montas I would do that or it's equivalent. I would absolutely not trade Royce Lewis. This team is not going to win the World Series with or without Montas. 

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If the Twins are going to make a trade it won’t be for anyone that is going to need a kings ransom.  We also have a lot of prospects that will likely be coming up plus Maeda, Paddack, Dobnak ect that will help us in future years that are on IL.  We may get a stopgap SP for the rest of the year but we would be looking at a top 10-20 prospect most likely and someone needing 40 man protection.

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14 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Oakland is not going to give up Montas easily … it will cost and it will hurt. And it will be for top prospects, not anyone on the 26-man.

The fact that not a single team was willing to pay their price this off-season would support they want the type of haul that would likely be quite detrimental in the long-term.   Add to this that the FO has made numerous moves since the Berrios trade with a focus on building a sustained contender and a deal for Montas or Castillo is very unlikely and should be.  Assuming Correa opts out, the Twins will have roughly a $75M payroll next year and their several Montas level SPs available in free agency and a couple of them are even better.   (Nola / Musgrove / Rodon / Syndergaard / Taillon / Perez / Manaea)   They can play for the next year and a third or they can keep the great prospects needed to get Montas and sign one of these 7 SPs for the next 5 years.   That would be difficult if there were 2 great SPs available.  I like the odds they could get one of the 7.

Call me greedy but I will take Musgrove or Taillon or Nola and Lewis plus SWR or whatever the ask would be for the next 5-6 years instead of Montas for a year and 2 months.  The FO clearly chose a path of developing several pitchers this year as well as Lewis / Miranda / Celestino and Larnach.  That plan is working so thankfully I don't see them changing directions.  


                

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If I were the Twins, I wouldn't include Lewis in any deal.  I want to hang on to Correa, and I think the Twins would be in great shape if they somehow could field teams that had both Correa and Lewis in the starting lineup.  But Lewis is the Twins fallback plan at SS if Correa opts out.  And that appears to be a mighty fine plan.

I proposed this trade on MLB Trade Values:

Twins Get:  Montas 37.0 and AJ Puk 5.5  Total of 42.5 points.  I believe the Twins would need to over-bid in value to get Montas because there WILL be a bidding war with other teams.  The Dodgers especially concern me.

A's Get:  Balazovic 16.1   Ober 15.5  Wallner 3.0  Theilbar  7.3 Yennier Cano .40 and Gordon .80   Total of 43.10

I don't give up Lewis, Canterino or Winder.  This trade works as far as the numbers, but I imagine Oakland would get a better offer.  I could modify a number of the players included but I'd be willing to add Martin or Noah Miller if I needed to take something out.  Not both of them, one of them as I swapped various pieces in and out.  

I believe Balazovic and Ober would get the attention of the A's.  I believe Wallner has to be in there.  I'm including Theilbar with getting Puk back as a way to swap out LH bullpen pieces.  But someone like Martin or Miller would probably need to be a part of it.  

The Twins need a frontline SP.  Someone who can consistently give them quality innings.  They need him for this year and future years.  Despite the excellent performance by Berrios in his win against us, I've always viewed Montas and Castillo as superior pitchers with higher ceilings.  I'd be willing to pay either in a 5-year extension whereas I felt Buxton was the player to keep and Jose was the player to trade a year ago. 

I would love to see something get done sooner rather than later, but the A's and Reds know their leverage will be greatest nearer the trade deadline.  How the Twins perform and how some of these potential trade pieces perform between now and then will have a big impact on whether anything gets done and what the eventual price will be.   

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59 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

A's Get:  Balazovic 16.1   Ober 15.5  Wallner 3.0  Theilbar  7.3 Yennier Cano .40 and Gordon .80   Total of 43.10

The BTV math works here but I don’t see how the players are a fit for the A’s. They will immediately have 40 man roster trouble. How does Thielbar fit? Cano? Gordon without options?

The return they accept for Montas should be the best prospect they can get. Someone will offer a better prospect than Balazovic.

They might do something like Larnach for Montas and Puk. Do we believe in Celestino and Kirilloff enough to trade Larnach? 

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1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If I were the Twins, I wouldn't include Lewis in any deal.  I want to hang on to Correa, and I think the Twins would be in great shape if they somehow could field teams that had both Correa and Lewis in the starting lineup.  But Lewis is the Twins fallback plan at SS if Correa opts out.  And that appears to be a mighty fine plan.

I proposed this trade on MLB Trade Values:

Twins Get:  Montas 37.0 and AJ Puk 5.5  Total of 42.5 points.  I believe the Twins would need to over-bid in value to get Montas because there WILL be a bidding war with other teams.  The Dodgers especially concern me.

A's Get:  Balazovic 16.1   Ober 15.5  Wallner 3.0  Theilbar  7.3 Yennier Cano .40 and Gordon .80   Total of 43.10

I don't give up Lewis, Canterino or Winder.  This trade works as far as the numbers, but I imagine Oakland would get a better offer.  I could modify a number of the players included but I'd be willing to add Martin or Noah Miller if I needed to take something out.  Not both of them, one of them as I swapped various pieces in and out.  

I believe Balazovic and Ober would get the attention of the A's.  I believe Wallner has to be in there.  I'm including Theilbar with getting Puk back as a way to swap out LH bullpen pieces.  But someone like Martin or Miller would probably need to be a part of it.  

The Twins need a frontline SP.  Someone who can consistently give them quality innings.  They need him for this year and future years.  Despite the excellent performance by Berrios in his win against us, I've always viewed Montas and Castillo as superior pitchers with higher ceilings.  I'd be willing to pay either in a 5-year extension whereas I felt Buxton was the player to keep and Jose was the player to trade a year ago. 

I would love to see something get done sooner rather than later, but the A's and Reds know their leverage will be greatest nearer the trade deadline.  How the Twins perform and how some of these potential trade pieces perform between now and then will have a big impact on whether anything gets done and what the eventual price will be.   

Fans of the team trading for a great (established) player always propose a bunch of mediocre players in trade.  Fans of the team that have that great player want elite prospects.   Quality not quantity.  Of course, the FO trading for prospects also want elite prospects not quantity.   If the A's would have accepted this type of deal, Montas would already be playing for someone else.  They are holding out for an elite MLB ready or close to ready prospect.  Does that sound like Lewis?  It would take something like Lewis and Winder.

The only prospect on that list that is not highly suspect is Gordon.  We are all very worried about Balazovic.  He certainly is not a headliner at this point.  Wallner's K rate makes him highly suspect.  This type of deal has absolutely no shot IMO.

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2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The fact that not a single team was willing to pay their price this off-season would support they want the type of haul that would likely be quite detrimental in the long-term.   Add to this that the FO has made numerous moves since the Berrios trade with a focus on building a sustained contender and a deal for Montas or Castillo is very unlikely and should be.  Assuming Correa opts out, the Twins will have roughly a $75M payroll next year and their several Montas level SPs available in free agency and a couple of them are even better.   (Nola / Musgrove / Rodon / Syndergaard / Taillon / Perez / Manaea)   They can play for the next year and a third or they can keep the great prospects needed to get Montas and sign one of these 7 SPs for the next 5 years.   That would be difficult if there were 2 great SPs available.  I like the odds they could get one of the 7.

Call me greedy but I will take Musgrove or Taillon or Nola and Lewis plus SWR or whatever the ask would be for the next 5-6 years instead of Montas for a year and 2 months.  The FO clearly chose a path of developing several pitchers this year as well as Lewis / Miranda / Celestino and Larnach.  That plan is working so thankfully I don't see them changing directions.  


                

It is? They are down to zero good options in the minors already, and Bundy is gone soon. How many good pitchers do you realistically expect them to home grow this fast? They've done great up until now, but expecting more this year or next is expecting a lot. Also, as what happened with the M&M boys getting hurt reminds us, growth isn't linear necessarily. If you never strike when your team is hot, they might not be again. 

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2 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Just saw that the D-Backs are potentially looking at trading Madison Baumgartner......any interest?  Assuming he'd be cheaper than Montas or Castillo.....

Definitely a poor clubhouse fit here. 

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57 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It is? They are down to zero good options in the minors already, and Bundy is gone soon. How many good pitchers do you realistically expect them to home grow this fast? They've done great up until now, but expecting more this year or next is expecting a lot. Also, as what happened with the M&M boys getting hurt reminds us, growth isn't linear necessarily. If you never strike when your team is hot, they might not be again. 

I don't think the team is hot if hot is defined as a legit contender.  Ask me again on July 20th and my answer might be different but at the moment they are not a front-line pitcher away from being a contender.  Montas or Castillo is going to require an elite prospect and another top 10 prospect.  Lewis and Winder for example.  Those teams are going to demand elite prospects at the AA/AAA level or guys like Winder that has already made their debut.  That's short-sighted if you are the twins.  It's also the  exact opposite of what Tampa and Oakland have proven over and over to be effective.  For example trading Samardzjia for Semien and Bassit.

This team is finally in a position to have sustained success.  Next year they have Gray / Ryan / Winder / Maeda / Ober / Smeltzer and Paddock by mid-season.  Add one of Nola / Musgrove / Rodon / Syndergaard / Taillon / Perez and they are great shape for several years.  You are the guy that talks about locking down long-term pitching assets and rightfully so.  It is essential in a mid-market to retain guys like Lewis / Winder if a mid-market team is to afford front-line free agent SP and put together a roster with the depth to be a true contender.   So, do you want Musgrove / Taillon / Nola for 5 years or Montas for 1 year and 2  I will take the former along with the top prospects like Lewis that I would have needed to trade away.  

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I'm interested in seeing what the Rays want for Tyler Glasnow. He's starting to throw in the next few weeks coming off TJ and is due for a fairly big number in arbitration. Would be a pretty stereotypical Rays move to try and get off him prior to that, though i see them most likely wanting to utilize him out of the pen and showcase his stuff to look to move in the winter.

I'd take the risk and overpay though. You get him next season as well. Probably would cost Miranda.

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11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Neither of these guys is gonna be moved without pitching going back.

 

You mean Kepler and Martin and not Lewis and Miranda, right? I think Lewis and Miranda have a chance to be the equivalent or reasonably close to it of Gaetti and Hrbek on the 1987 Twins.

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16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. No idea why Oakland would deal for Kepler, or why a contender would deal Kepler.....

That trade simulator must have sprung a gasket. No way Laureano is worth that much relative to Montas and Kepler. He has a .691 OPS right now.

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