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The Twins Bullpen Could Use Some Help


18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Except, as I've already laid out in this thread, Duffey isn't "prone to coughing up leads." He literally pitched a scoreless 8th inning of a 2-0 game 3 days ago. And he pitched a scoreless 8th against this very Royals team 2 days before that. So I'll go ahead and call you crazy I guess. Although I feel biased is probably the better term here.

Whit Merrifield is a .220 hitter this year. Why would we argue that what he's done in the current season doesn't matter? Whit Merrifield didn't have a positive OPS+ last year either. And he's 33. Is it possible he's declined as a baseball player? I'm sorry I'm taking actual happenings from this actual major league baseball season and forming opinions on that instead of just "Whit Merrifield is not a .220 hitter, I don't care what's happened so far (in 2022)" <- assuming that was a typing error there. What a weird argument. "Hey, this guy used to be good so let's ignore what he's been like this season and assume what he's a better hitter than he can show us he is. I mean he is hitting a whopping .231 against the Twins this year so I guess he's really slaughtering them while struggling against everyone else.

Duffey has -1.09 WPA, .491 ERA and 33% HR/FB. He has had some improved outings lately, but has not shed his low leverage label from me, yet

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28 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Duffey has -1.09 WPA, .491 ERA and 33% HR/FB. He has had some improved outings lately, but has not shed his low leverage label from me, yet

Agreed, and I've said throughout this thread that I want to see him pushed down the leverage line. But his May appearances have been in high leverage situations and he'd been pretty solid in them until the other night. Before Thursday's meltdown he'd had 10 other appearances in May and came out of it with 5 holds, 1 save, and the W in the big comeback in KC. He'd held a 2-0 lead in the 8th on Tuesday. I want him pushed down the line because he's not the same guy he was a couple years ago, but it's not absurd to think he can hold a 2-0 lead in the 8th since he's been doing similar things for a month.

That's my thing. People don't like Duffey (and I don't want him as an 8th inning guy either) so when he does blow a lead (which every reliever will do throughout the year) they pounce and suddenly it was obvious he shouldn't be in and can never hold a lead and should be cut and all this stuff, but they ignore the 7 leads (or down by 1 in that comeback situation) before the bad outing and act like those never happened.

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18 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Whit Merrifield:

Last 7 days .375/.429/.675

 

Last 14 days

.322/.364/,509

 

28 days

.286/,325/,429

 

He's a career .287 hitter. Hit .277 last year. Widely regarded as one of the tougher outs in MLB. He'll be in high demand this July.

 

So yeah, I'm quite comfortable stating he's not a .220 hitter.  And he smoked one up the alley off yet another middle middle nothing pitch from Duffey.

 

No. Way. I. Let. Duffey. Pitch. To. Merrifield. 

 

Speaking if Duffey...you know what opposing hitters are teeing off on him this year?

.278/.316/.514

 

That's right, he's given up an .830 OPS to opposing hitters.

 

He's not very good. Hasnt been for a while.. and yes....prone to coughing up leads. 

 

 

 

 

See, when you kept it to just the Merrifield stats you were onto something. Then you went and did what I did and used season long stats instead of the recent stats to try to prove a bullpen arm is terrible. 11 May appearances for Duffey. 5 holds. 1 save. 1 win when he held the score in the 8th in the big comeback against KC. He'd held a 2-0 lead in the 8th 2 days before the meltdown. Hadn't blown a lead since April 19th actually. Although, he did have a bad outing in KC last week so maybe the argument is he shouldn't pitch with a lead against KC. But, no, he hasn't been prone to coughing up leads. 

And I've said multiple times that I'd like him to be pushed down the line. Alcala is hopefully back in a couple weeks and that's 1 arm that will move him down. My original post in this thread was that they needed help  in the pen. The point is that taking 1 blown lead and making it sound like he's blowing them all the time while you ignore the 7 wins, holds, or saves he'd had in the month prior to that is confirmation bias at it's finest. I don't want Duffey throwing high leverage situations. I've said that. But he's been able to be successful far more often than not in those situations this year, even if they're not always comfortable outings and I get nervous when I see he's coming in. Rocco should be ready to have someone else up and throwing quick when Duffey comes in because he's either 1-2-3 or it's all a mess. And I've agreed he should've had someone ready Thursday night. But Duffey has been solid more than he hasn't for the last month. 11 appearances 7 of them didn't allow a baserunner at all and an 8th where he faced just 3 hitters in his first inning of work before having to face 5 in his second inning. So 8 out of 11 appearances that he faced 3 hitters in his first inning of work. He's not great and I want him moved down the pecking order, but let's not act like he's out there giving up runs every time out either.

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13 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Man....I wish I was as optimistic as you are.  Duffey, Stashak Cano, and Megill are just not high-leverage guys right now.   And Pagan is not far behind.   Romero?  Yuck.  Henriguez and Strotman aren't getting guys out in the minors  Strotman has been terrible.  i've heard nothing about Alcala and i think that is bad news.  He went on the 60 day really quick, which I fear means more than just a sore arm.  

I think a move is necessary right now.  Just my opinion. 

Alcala has been throwing pens and is doing a live BP session today. Expected back in middle of June, but no definitive timeline at this point.

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16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Agreed, and I've said throughout this thread that I want to see him pushed down the leverage line. But his May appearances have been in high leverage situations and he'd been pretty solid in them until the other night. Before Thursday's meltdown he'd had 10 other appearances in May and came out of it with 5 holds, 1 save, and the W in the big comeback in KC. He'd held a 2-0 lead in the 8th on Tuesday. I want him pushed down the line because he's not the same guy he was a couple months ago, but it's not absurd to think he can hold a 2-0 lead in the 8th since he's been doing similar things for a month.

That's my thing. People don't like Duffey (and I don't want him as an 8th inning guy either) so when he does blow a lead (which every reliever will do throughout the year) they pounce and suddenly it was obvious he shouldn't be in and can never hold a lead and should be cut and all this stuff, but they ignore the 7 leads (or down by 1 in that comeback situation) before the bad outing and act like those never happened.

Right, but there’s too many Duffeys and Pagans, Need more Durans and Smiths

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4 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Right, but there’s too many Duffeys and Pagans, Need more Durans and Smiths

Oh, 100%. My original comment in this thread stated they need help, but I don't know where that comes from in May/early June. Not a lot of teams willing to do reasonable trades at this time of year because they want a bidding war to drive up prospect prices at the deadline. Alacala back in a couple weeks (hopefully 🤞) and maybe Canterino in June if he's still dealing and they're willing to let him be a multi-inning guy in the bigs. But I don't know where they find more help right now even though I 100% agree they need it.

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1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, 100%. My original comment in this thread stated they need help, but I don't know where that comes from in May/early June. Not a lot of teams willing to do reasonable trades at this time of year because they want a bidding war to drive up prospect prices at the deadline. Alacala back in a couple weeks (hopefully 🤞) and maybe Canterino in June if he's still dealing and they're willing to let him be a multi-inning guy in the bigs. But I don't know where they find more help right now even though I 100% agree they need it.

If Alacala and Canterino can add to the mix positively, that will be just like making a trade! :) 

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Just now, Squirrel said:

If Alacala and Canterino can add to the mix positively, that will be just like making a trade! :) 

One big old "If," though. I hope they find a way to get some more shutdown arms in the pen and don't act like they have enough right now (even though they've been quite solid overall).

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6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

See, when you kept it to just the Merrifield stats you were onto something. Then you went and did what I did and used season long stats instead of the recent stats to try to prove a bullpen arm is terrible. 11 May appearances for Duffey. 5 holds. 1 save. 1 win when he held the score in the 8th in the big comeback against KC. He'd held a 2-0 lead in the 8th 2 days before the meltdown. Hadn't blown a lead since April 19th actually. Although, he did have a bad outing in KC last week so maybe the argument is he shouldn't pitch with a lead against KC. But, no, he hasn't been prone to coughing up leads. 

And I've said multiple times that I'd like him to be pushed down the line. Alcala is hopefully back in a couple weeks and that's 1 arm that will move him down. My original post in this thread was that they needed help  in the pen. The point is that taking 1 blown lead and making it sound like he's blowing them all the time while you ignore the 7 wins, holds, or saves he'd had in the month prior to that is confirmation bias at it's finest. I don't want Duffey throwing high leverage situations. I've said that. But he's been able to be successful far more often than not in those situations this year, even if they're not always comfortable outings and I get nervous when I see he's coming in. Rocco should be ready to have someone else up and throwing quick when Duffey comes in because he's either 1-2-3 or it's all a mess. And I've agreed he should've had someone ready Thursday night. But Duffey has been solid more than he hasn't for the last month. 11 appearances 7 of them didn't allow a baserunner at all and an 8th where he faced just 3 hitters in his first inning of work before having to face 5 in his second inning. So 8 out of 11 appearances that he faced 3 hitters in his first inning of work. He's not great and I want him moved down the pecking order, but let's not act like he's out there giving up runs every time out either.

See, when you cherry pick a couple successful outings you mask the actual problem. Duffey isn't very good at retiring opposing hitters. As demonstrated with statistics.

He has subpar stuff and has to rely on breaking balls. About once every third outing or so, he can't locate those breaking balls, and he's toast. That's exactly what happened the other night, and why he can't be left in to cough up the lead. It was obvious the first hitter he faced, if he got through the inning it was going to be luck. He couldn't locate anything. 

It's not Rocco's fault he has few good pen options. It's ENTIRELY his fault he let one of his poorer options lose a game when he didn't have to.

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19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

See, when you cherry pick a couple successful outings you mask the actual problem. Duffey isn't very good at retiring opposing hitters. As demonstrated with statistics.

He has subpar stuff and has to rely on breaking balls. About once every third outing or so, he can't locate those breaking balls, and he's toast. That's exactly what happened the other night, and why he can't be left in to cough up the lead. It was obvious the first hitter he faced, if he got through the inning it was going to be luck. He couldn't locate anything. 

It's not Rocco's fault he has few good pen options. It's ENTIRELY his fault he let one of his poorer options lose a game when he didn't have to.

I used Merrifield's season stats and you told me he wasn't a .220 hitter even though he was hitting .220. You said he's better than that because he had a good month of May. Then you say I can't use Duffey's month of May to show he's been good of late and say I'm cherry picking. You see why that's a little confusing to me? Merrifield's month of May is proof he's not a .220 hitter, but Duffey's month of May is cherry picking and shouldn't be used. Interesting logic there.

I agree he has subpar stuff as his breaking ball has declined over the years. Not sure why relying on breaking balls is a problem, though, considering many pitchers do it. In non 3-0 hitters counts pitchers league wide throw fastballs just 55% of the time. Last year Houston, Seattle, and Minnesota all used fastballs less than 50% of the time. Reliance on breaking balls and off speed pitches is pretty standard across the league at this point.

I'm not a huge Duffey fan. I've said it time and time again in this thread. But he's blown 3 leads in 19 appearances this year. That's not "about once every third outing," it's 15.7% which is way less than 33%. They need better arms to push him down the line and get him out of 8th inning appearances and into 5th and 6th inning appearances. But he hasn't been the disaster you've suggest he's been. As demonstrated by statistics.

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