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Next 17 Games Crucial


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The next 17 games are absolutely critical. The Twins need to go 12-5 or better yet 14-3. Two games vs Oakland, 8 games vs Detroit, and 7 games against KC. That followed by 3 games in Toronto, 3 games vs Yankees, 3 games vs TB, and 3 games in Seattle. We need to bank as many wins as possible before we hit that stretch.

 

Record:9-8

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Wow high expectations,  12-5  or 14-3.  That means sweeping multiple series and having minimal to no clunkers.  With Bundy going out there 4 times during that stretch,  the odds we get close to this are slim to none for the 14-3.  11-6 or 10 and 7 is very realistic.  

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5 hours ago, ScottyB said:

The next 17 games are absolutely critical. The Twins need to go 12-5 or better yet 14-3. Two games vs Oakland, 8 games vs Detroit, and 7 games against KC. That followed by 3 games in Toronto, 3 games vs Yankees, 3 games vs TB, and 3 games in Seattle. We need to bank as many wins as possible before we hit that stretch.

I think there is a need to back it up to the Cleveland series this past weekend for a 21 game stretch.  I think 14-16 wins are needed in that stretch.  3-1 so far.

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26 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

How critical? If they go 10-7 do they become sellers? 8-9?

If they go 8-9 against KC and Detroit,  they should probably sell anybody worth anything, and go with all young guys. (except Buxton)

 

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6 hours ago, ScottyB said:

The next 17 games are absolutely critical. The Twins need to go 12-5 or better yet 14-3. Two games vs Oakland, 8 games vs Detroit, and 7 games against KC. That followed by 3 games in Toronto, 3 games vs Yankees, 3 games vs TB, and 3 games in Seattle. We need to bank as many wins as possible before we hit that stretch.

I agree the next stretch is important because the Twins need to make hay against bad teams but 14-3 is unreasonable even if they're playing 17 games against the Orioles and Reds.

I'd be thrilled with 12-5 but consider anything under 10-7 a failure.

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I made a similar forum post last week.  I agree this stretch is important because it is against bad teams playing badly right now.  June brings some tough teams, as of right now.  It is possible that some of those teams, like the Yankees, are making hay against bad teams themselves.  Most of their games have been against losing teams as well.  

I agree when playing bad teams playing badly you need to pounce.  We have not been hitting all the well and got some wins against bad teams, Oakland mostly the last couple week or so.  However, just because teams are playing well now does not mean next month or second half will be the same.  

Detroit may figure something out, as well as KC.  So for now pounce.  White Sox are better than what they have shown so get as big of lead on them as you can.  Also take this time to get right hitting wise and health hopefully.  I would also agree with most comments that going 14-3 is not likely, but would be great.  However winning each series should be expected. 

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In order to declare the upcoming stretch critical due to the quality of the opponent. 

Don't you have to pre-suppose that the bad opponents are consistently bad with no fluctuation to the upside?

Don't you have to pre-suppose that the Twins are also consistent when it comes to their performance with no fluctuation to the down side? 

It's my opinion that baseball has never worked that way. I could be wrong.  

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Yep! This will be a wonderful series of games.

At best, the Twins widen the gap between themselves and other teams in the division. You win your division to get to the playoffs, no matter how bad/good your record.

But they do have to match up well against the other BIG teams in the other STRONGER divisions.

Expect to see some shuffling with the rotation. The evils when they named Ryan the opening starter was that he woulkd be pitching, for the msot part, against one or the top two starters for any team the Twins face on a consistent level.

(I often wonder why teams just don't reverse and start their worst pitcher is a probably losing situation.)

But even against Kansas City and Baltimore, not to mention the Oakland, the games have been tough contests.

I'm looking for the day when the Twins have Larnach and Coorrea back in the fold. Although I'm still not quite accepting Arraez at first base, but we need to keep him in the game!

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  • 2 weeks later...
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I hate to say it, but the final record was 9-8. I think that when we look back on this stretch, it will be the time we end up losing the division, even though at this point we still have a 4.5 game lead. You can’t play 1 game over .500 against this lightweight division and expect to go anywhere. I realize we have some crucial injuries, but the team isn’t hitting and the bullpen is very weak. Unless something changes, we will be out of first place by the end of the month.

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On 5/17/2022 at 4:51 PM, Rosterman said:

(I often wonder why teams just don't reverse and start their worst pitcher is a probably losing situation.)

I think it's for the same reason you put your best hitters at the front of the lineup. Play the best starters as early and often as you can, and you get more total games out of them.

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1 hour ago, ScottyB said:

I hate to say it, but the final record was 9-8. I think that when we look back on this stretch, it will be the time we end up losing the division, even though at this point we still have a 4.5 game lead. You can’t play 1 game over .500 against this lightweight division and expect to go anywhere. I realize we have some crucial injuries, but the team isn’t hitting and the bullpen is very weak. Unless something changes, we will be out of first place by the end of the month.

I was thinking the same this this morning!

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Well, we started out well for these games but then just fell apart. It's hard to know what to make of this stretch where we are out out best player in Correa, two of our other "best" players haven't hit in a month (Polanco and Buxton), the IL is full, and our top two starters are on the shelf. Still, this stretch has been really bad offensively and the bullpen is starting to fail regularly.  The starters have actually help up OK, but can't go even 6 innings most days. It's hard to see the bullpen or even the lineup  improving in a real significant way although maybe the lineup could get better when guys get healthy. 

I think all of this shows that we just aren't very deep in the lineup, rotation, or bullpen and cannot withstand much attrition. I can still see us winning the division or getting a wild card given the weaknesses around us. Still, this should be a year to give experience to the next wave - Ryan, Ober, Duran, Alcala (when he's back), Larnach, Lewis, Kirilloff and Celestino. We just don't have the horses to be a real competitor this year so let's use this year to sow the seeds for a real competitive team next year.  

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The offseason had divergent views among TD readers. Some felt that minimal moves and playing the kids was what was needed and hoped for 75-80 wins while praising every move of Falvey and squad as "building a responsible team for the future." Others looked for some additions to support the young players and wanted to give the roster a boost to stave off the Royals, Tigers, and Guardians  youth movements with our own mixture. 

Right now the offense feels lost at times and short a direction. The bullpen has been decent but might be missing a lefty guy. The starting staff has generally been much better than expected but would certainly benefit from a certain guy wearing #47. 

There is some talent and this stretch run to the All Star games should reveal who can hack it with big boys. I am going to stay positive about the Twins and still hope to see two additions to the roster via trades.

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21 hours ago, ScottyB said:

I hate to say it, but the final record was 9-8. I think that when we look back on this stretch, it will be the time we end up losing the division, even though at this point we still have a 4.5 game lead. You can’t play 1 game over .500 against this lightweight division and expect to go anywhere. I realize we have some crucial injuries, but the team isn’t hitting and the bullpen is very weak. Unless something changes, we will be out of first place by the end of the month.

21 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Why couldn't that be enough to win this lightweight division?

I'd personally split the difference and say that the team's chances of winning the division are much stronger than I anticipated before the season began, but that the division crown is going to be worth less than I ever imagined, and I didn't imagine it meaning much.

I don't believe that the post-season is a crapshoot and all you should care about is reaching it.  This roster isn't constructed with much chance of making noise when it's win-or-go-home.

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Right now this team has no identity with a hodgepodge of lineups that are unrecognizable and a manager that absolutely will not allow a starting pitcher to go more than 5 innings even after giving up 3 hits and 1 run in a must win, yes, must win game. Losing 4 of 5 to Tigers is inexcusable and symbolic of the malaise with which this team has been playing for decades now. Only the home run barrage in 2019 interrupted that and the FO geniuses proceeded to dismantle that team. They are now fodder for the upcoming schedule and the Central lead is in jeopardy.

Having said that they will probably put a 10 spot on the Jays tonight (or not).

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14 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'd personally split the difference and say that the team's chances of winning the division are much stronger than I anticipated before the season began, but that the division crown is going to worth less than I ever imagined, and I didn't imagine it meaning much.

I don't believe that the post-season is a crapshoot and all you should care about is reaching it.  This roster isn't constructed with much chance of making noise when it's win-or-go-home.

This.

I think a decent amount of the doom and gloom comes from overrating the ChiSox. We're 2 months in and they're still pretty dysfunctional. Can they get their s*** together and actively threaten to take the division? Sure, but at some point, similar to the Twins last year, you just are what you are. 

It's kinda cringy that the Twins can go 8-7 in what's essentially half of a month's worth of games against two of the worst teams in baseball and their division lead remains unchanged. 

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15 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'd personally split the difference and say that the team's chances of winning the division are much stronger than I anticipated before the season began, but that the division crown is going to worth less than I ever imagined, and I didn't imagine it meaning much.

I don't believe that the post-season is a crapshoot and all you should care about is reaching it.  This roster isn't constructed with much chance of making noise when it's win-or-go-home.

Ashbury this has been my take all along,  and has been the primary premise behind my anticipation of trading Correa.  Even still you need to have a buyer to make it worthwhile.  We still need to let this all play out.  

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2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Ashbury this has been my take all along,  and has been the primary premise behind my anticipation of trading Correa.  Even still you need to have a buyer to make it worthwhile.  We still need to let this all play out.  

The optics of trading him while in first place, possibly with a losing record, will be very bizarre.

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17 hours ago, ashbury said:

This roster isn't constructed with much chance of making noise when it's win-or-go-home.

Are you referring to the roster right now, or the roster with some semblance of health? The latter looks pretty competitive, no?

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7 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Are you referring to the roster right now, or the roster with some semblance of health? The latter looks pretty competitive, no?

Not really. Lot of ifs, and if they all come through, then perhaps, on the offense.  But the pitching doesn't look to me like it's built to beat the playoff teams.

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On 6/2/2022 at 8:31 PM, ashbury said:

I'd personally split the difference and say that the team's chances of winning the division are much stronger than I anticipated before the season began, but that the division crown is going to be worth less than I ever imagined, and I didn't imagine it meaning much.

I don't believe that the post-season is a crapshoot and all you should care about is reaching it.  This roster isn't constructed with much chance of making noise when it's win-or-go-home.

I mostly agree but baseball is more random than most sports, and by a lot. Just getting to the postseason counts for a lot more than the Wolves being a traditional eight seed or the NHL, where I believe no eight seed has won the Final other than the Kings in 2012.

Yet in just the past decade or so, three Wild Card teams have won the World Series (going from recollection here, excuse any mistakes). Obviously, fewer teams making the postseason makes it easier for those who do make it to win the championship but more than any other sport, baseball’s randomness of just getting there brings you pretty close to a championship.

Because, more than any other sport, there is no more popular flux between what is “required” to win year to year than baseball. And the reason for that is because there are a dozen ways to win and you just need a lot of luck in the margins to do so.

But aside from all that, you don’t think a lineup with Buxton and Correa can make noise in the postseason? I’m not sure what could in your opinion if you believe that. 

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9 hours ago, ashbury said:

Not really. Lot of ifs, and if they all come through, then perhaps, on the offense.  But the pitching doesn't look to me like it's built to beat the playoff teams.

By “the playoff teams” do you just mean Yankees and Astros? Obviously they are the favorites but I think we match up fairly well with the rest of the field right now. We are 3rd or 4th in the league by a variety of pitching metrics. (And with the new format, we’d miss the Yankees and Astros in the first round.)

FWIW, if the season ended today, our first round opponent would be the 27-26 Angels.

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